politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are
Comments
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One thing that people don't realise is that the paperwork requirements are savage - one thing missed out or out of place - FAIL.tlg86 said:
I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.kle4 said:
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.MarkSenior said:J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.tlg86 said:
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?Bromptonaut said:
This is what non EU workers have faced for years.0 -
In the morning, I'm compare a Labour shellacking to The Battle of Zama, the defeat that ultimately helped contribute to the wipeout of Carthage, all because they were led by a rubbish general.Sean_F said:
How about the Sack of Rome or Fall of Constantnople?Morris_Dancer said:Welcome back, Mr. Wiggs.
Mr. Richard, hmm. Perhaps -80 could be considered Battle of the Allia? (Got to admit, I'm a bit weaker on the earlier stuff).
In this instance Labour decided to salt their own ground.0 -
Anthony Wells:
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/98370 -
It seems for all the world like it to me but perhaps I am missing something. I am going to write to them (and trust me not just customer support - I was thinking more investor relations) to ask about it!!malcolmg said:
Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.TOPPING said:Betting question team -
I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.
The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.
I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.
My calcs:
13 = 12/1
12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.
Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.
Surely can't be right? Or can it?
Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?0 -
And how many more will shift when they realise (maybe even on the day) that there's no UKIP candidate on their ballot paper?CarlottaVance said:Anthony Wells:
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/98370 -
Tory ceiling at 54%?CarlottaVance said:Anthony Wells:
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9837
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It's , it's almost like that 4m votes that that bloke keeps banging on about are proving really significant.CarlottaVance said:Anthony Wells:
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/98370 -
Exit polls at 7pm UK time tomorrow, results from then onMorris_Dancer said:Do we have a schedule for the French first round results?
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Just like the LibDems.MrsB said:
except they disappeared.....Morris_Dancer said:Mrs B, but no-one quite knows the fate of the Ninth Legion...
Only 8 of them staggered out of the desolation, covered in blood.0 -
-80 Battle Of Cap Bon?Morris_Dancer said:PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama0 -
Also seen my seat, Stirling , appearing on Tory target lists - Michael Forsyth's old seat - again scalp too far - 4th May should give an indication though.CarlottaVance said:
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....DavidL said:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.calum said:0 -
The June election has vastly improved that bet I think.Quincel said:Picking over my outstanding bets, I've got a tenner on "Yougov to show Labour leading by 2018" at 5/1. Though I'd rather have the tenner back, at least the snap election raises the prospect of a new Labour leader before then who only needs a short honeymoon period for me to win...
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Mr. HYUFD, thanks.
Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauded around Italy for over a decade. Corbyn's done nothing comparable.0 -
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would be Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the line, 49.9% of Moray voters voted Leave in 2016 and 58% No in 2014, on paper it could see the biggest SNP to Tory swing in Scotland. The Tory candidate trying to oust Angus Robertson is a local MSPCarlottaVance said:
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....DavidL said:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.calum said:0 -
Corbynism sweeps the nation, it doesn't maraud the nation.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, thanks.
Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauded around Italy for over a decade. Corbyn's done nothing comparable.
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Jezza is Puzzle the Donkey.MrsB said:Idle thoughts - comparing this election with the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.
Mrs May obviously the witch
Tim Farron as Peter - thought of as just a kid to start with but becomes a mighty warrior
Problem is Jezza. He would be Aslan I suppose. I can see him going willingly to the table to be sacrificed. Problem is, can't see him coming to life again afterwards.....0 -
LOL, as if idiots dreamHYUFD said:
Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seatsScott_P said:Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!
https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/8558240534494863360 -
Mr. Malmesbury, can add it as -90, already added Allia as -80.
Edited extra bit: must say, I don't think Labour will fall that far.0 -
There is a reason I love PB, its for posts like that! Thank you so much.Morris_Dancer said:PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
I see this election as being somewhere between Carrhae and Teutoberg forest.
Now that's a sentence I never thought I would type0 -
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.HYUFD said:
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the lineCarlottaVance said:
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....DavidL said:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.calum said:0 -
Subsamples are the best. It must be weird for the SNP, since I believe they support PR, to be able to dominate Scotland at Westminster even if they were to go to 43%.Scott_P said:Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!
https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/8558240534494863360 -
Is this why none ever come - oh...Malmesbury said:
One thing that people don't realise is that the paperwork requirements are savage - one thing missed out or out of place - FAIL.tlg86 said:
I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.kle4 said:
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.MarkSenior said:J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.tlg86 said:
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?Bromptonaut said:
This is what non EU workers have faced for years.0 -
He's marauded across the Labour party for two years, sabotaged Remain to help Leave win and topple Cameron.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, thanks.
Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauded around Italy for over a decade. Corbyn's done nothing comparable.
That's even more impressive than marauding across Italy for a decade.0 -
LOL, it's looking worse than that for Labour though.BigRich said:
There is a reason I love PB, its for posts like that! Thank you so much.Morris_Dancer said:PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
I see this election as being somewhere between Carrhae and Teutoberg forest.
Now that's a sentence I never thought I would type0 -
Mr. Eagles, in that time, Hannibal faced Cornelius Scipio, Sempronius, Flaminius, Varro, Paullus, Marcellus, Nero and Quintus Fabius Maximus. None defeated him.
Corbyn has faced Owen Smith.
Mr. Rich (and others), thanks
It makes procrastinating from work worthwhile
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I think Corbyn sees himself more as a modern day Spartacus !!TheScreamingEagles said:
He's marauded across the Labour party for two years, sabotaged Remain to help Leave win and topple Cameron.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, thanks.
Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauded around Italy for over a decade. Corbyn's done nothing comparable.
That's even more impressive than marauding across Italy for a decade.0 -
Why should it be weird?kle4 said:
Subsamples are the best. It must be weird for the SNP, since I believe they support PR, to be able to dominate Scotland at Westminster even if they were to go to 43%.Scott_P said:Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!
https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336
Parties privately support the system that gives them the best result. They'll publicly support the system that makes them look most virtuous. Those two things may not coincide.0 -
I've come up with a new term than saying Labour are going to get pounded like a dockside hooker.
It's not for the faint of heart or those eating.0 -
And he's won emphatic if ultimately pointless victories in that time too.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's marauded across the Labour party for two years, sabotaged Remain to help Leave win and topple Cameron.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, thanks.
Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauded around Italy for over a decade. Corbyn's done nothing comparable.
That's even more impressive than marauding across Italy for a decade.0 -
Adds a touch of class to a political bumfight.BigRich said:Morris_Dancer said:PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
I see this election as being somewhere between Carrhae and Teutoberg forest.
Now that's a sentence I never thought I would type0 -
The only sensible Tory in the villageDavidL said:
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.HYUFD said:
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the lineCarlottaVance said:
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....DavidL said:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.calum said:0 -
That's OKMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, thanks.
Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauded around Italy for over a decade. Corbyn's done nothing comparable.0 -
Pollsters certainly don't seem to have a problem with shy Tories in Scotland when it comes time to ring round.DavidL said:
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.HYUFD said:
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the lineCarlottaVance said:
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....DavidL said:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.calum said:0 -
The last full Scottish poll from Panelbase in March had the Tories on 28%, so still 13% up on 2015DavidL said:
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.HYUFD said:
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the lineCarlottaVance said:
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....DavidL said:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.calum said:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
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There's a full base poll tomorrow isn't there? Likely wont be quite as 'dramatic'......DavidL said:
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.HYUFD said:
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the lineCarlottaVance said:
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....DavidL said:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.calum said:0 -
It is why the well advised hire a good immigration adviser.felix said:
Is this why none ever come - oh...Malmesbury said:
One thing that people don't realise is that the paperwork requirements are savage - one thing missed out or out of place - FAIL.tlg86 said:
I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.kle4 said:
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.MarkSenior said:J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.tlg86 said:
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?Bromptonaut said:
This is what non EU workers have faced for years.
An ex did this - she would read the file and then either rejected the case, or asked for a fixed fee, deliverable on success only.
She had an incredible reputation in her area.0 -
If Corbyn stays post defeat or is replaced by McDonnell very possiblyBigRich said:
I think the cross over may be in about 2019 and by the UK general election 2022, they will be firmly in 3rd place, 10-15% behind the second place party.DavidL said:How much longer can Labour hold second in share of the vote?
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Didn't they all turn into the Arthurian Knights?GeoffM said:
Just like the LibDems.MrsB said:
except they disappeared.....Morris_Dancer said:Mrs B, but no-one quite knows the fate of the Ninth Legion...
Only 8 of them staggered out of the desolation, covered in blood.0 -
FT take on Labour manifesto:
As with Mr Miliband, Labour will again threaten taxes on the wealthy, with an increase in the top rate of income tax and a possible mansion tax — as well as a reversal of corporation tax cuts.
But Mr Corbyn will go further, not least by refusing to accept the need for any austerity in the public services. For example he will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
If Mr Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street — despite the odds — he would “renationalise” the NHS by removing all private company provision.
https://www.ft.com/content/9b58c4f4-277e-11e7-8995-c35d0a61e61a
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https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/851740438813954048TheScreamingEagles said:I've come up with a new term than saying Labour are going to get pounded like a dockside hooker.
It's not for the faint of heart or those eating.0 -
I've just had a quick look at the Labour party rules online: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6GtYu9coM3zeVZYTkRNVDlfaTg/view
This says "No member of the Party shall engage in conduct which in the opinion of the NEC is prejudicial, or in any act which in the opinion of the NEC is grossly detrimental to the Party." The maximum penalty for this under the rules seems to be expulsion.
Suppose Labour lose the election badly. If the NEC then declare Corbyn's conduct has been grossly detrimental to the party, as proved by their heavy defeat, Corbyn would be out of the party, so no longer eligible to be its leader.
This would be a pretty bizarre turn of events, and require an anti-Corbyn majority on the NEC, but it might be a way for Labour to circumvent its cumbersome procedures for deposing a leader, and ensure Corbyn can't stand in future Labour leadership elections.0 -
It has to be nailed on that he is offering to offer free uni for all. Only doubt if he goes full nationalisation of all utilities or he will leave it until his second term.CarlottaVance said:FT take on Labour manifesto:
As with Mr Miliband, Labour will again threaten taxes on the wealthy, with an increase in the top rate of income tax and a possible mansion tax — as well as a reversal of corporation tax cuts.
But Mr Corbyn will go further, not least by refusing to accept the need for any austerity in the public services. For example he will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
If Mr Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street — despite the odds — he would “renationalise” the NHS by removing all private company provision.
https://www.ft.com/content/9b58c4f4-277e-11e7-8995-c35d0a61e61a0 -
Wonder what the Tories will do on Defence spending? More money for Fisheries Protection vessels?0
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That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.CarlottaVance said:
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.0 -
They should definitely do that, then he should take them to court.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:I've just had a quick look at the Labour party rules online: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6GtYu9coM3zeVZYTkRNVDlfaTg/view
This says "No member of the Party shall engage in conduct which in the opinion of the NEC is prejudicial, or in any act which in the opinion of the NEC is grossly detrimental to the Party." The maximum penalty for this under the rules seems to be expulsion.
Suppose Labour lose the election badly. If the NEC then declare Corbyn's conduct has been grossly detrimental to the party, as proved by their heavy defeat, Corbyn would be out of the party, so no longer eligible to be its leader.
This would be a pretty bizarre turn of events, and require an anti-Corbyn majority on the NEC, but it might be a way for Labour to circumvent its cumbersome procedures for deposing a leader, and ensure Corbyn can't stand in future Labour leadership elections.0 -
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?kle4 said:
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.CarlottaVance said:
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.0 -
Omg sky news pissing myself at headline....Labour accuse Tories of planning a tax bombshell and promise not to put up IC and VAT...
Does anybody really believe no cuts corbyn won't result in higher taxes.0 -
"We might need to come up with a new adjective for just how rubbish Corbyn is"
PB did a long time ago.
"Corbyn is crap"0 -
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.Sandpit said:
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?kle4 said:
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.CarlottaVance said:
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.0 -
What, ALL of it??? The GPs, the cleaners, the MRI scanners, the Pharmarceutical companies...CarlottaVance said:
If Mr Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street — despite the odds — he would “renationalise” the NHS by removing all private company provision.
https://www.ft.com/content/9b58c4f4-277e-11e7-8995-c35d0a61e61a
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Ah okay, fairy nuff then.kle4 said:
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.Sandpit said:
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?kle4 said:
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.CarlottaVance said:
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.0 -
Has Opinium changed its methodology?0
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We must be prepared.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Malmesbury, can add it as -90, already added Allia as -80.
Edited extra bit: must say, I don't think Labour will fall that far.
-100 Battle Of Adrianople?0 -
Mr. Root, in just under seven weeks, the list (amended) I posted below will indicate this crapness in a scientifically precise manner, defined according to Roman battlefield defeats (or success, if Labour gain seats).0
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Via Ben Walker from BritainElects:
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post0 -
Probably have to wait until year 2...alex. said:
What, ALL of it??? The GPs, the cleaners, the MRI scanners, the Pharmarceutical companies...CarlottaVance said:
If Mr Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street — despite the odds — he would “renationalise” the NHS by removing all private company provision.
https://www.ft.com/content/9b58c4f4-277e-11e7-8995-c35d0a61e61a0 -
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News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
Indeed. We used to move up x number of "spine" points and then the spine points were up-rated for inflation, like in the NHS, police, or army. But Osborne stopped that. I've only got 1% each year for years, other than inflation. So my current salary is worh nothing like what my equivalents' was 10 years ago in real terms.kle4 said:
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.Sandpit said:
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?kle4 said:
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.CarlottaVance said:
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.0 -
Is Steve Rotherham worried about Con winning the Liverpool Mayor. Con gain Bootle anyone?
https://twitter.com/LivEchonews/status/8554314199962746890 -
I loved it (didn't like the Jungle Book remake). My young niece did not, but without her I'd not be able to see it.SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's blood fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars
From my recollections I think they made Gaston even more villainous than the original cartoon.
Edit: As for 'has anyone else seen' it, well given the amount of money it has made, probably everyone.0 -
Mr. Malmesbury, if we're adding that, we might as well end up including Manzikert and the Fourth Crusade...
Honestly, there is a limit. Labour has many die hard supporters and will be sheltered a lot by the electoral system.
I thought going down to 70 seat losses was quite sufficient.
Still, in the interests of science and completeness, I shall add a few more.
Edited extra bit: although, I've managed to stick with just Western stuff so far, and those two are Eastern.0 -
Some more Batch 2 Rivers wouldn't be a completely silly idea.CarlottaVance said:Wonder what the Tories will do on Defence spending? More money for Fisheries Protection vessels?
0 -
Mr. kle4, seen the Deadpool parody of the Gaston song? It's rather good.0
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You what? When's the close of nominations, as he will surely be Mayor by May 5th.TheScreamingEagles said:Is Steve Rotherham worried about Con winning the Liverpool Mayor. Con gain Bootle anyone?
tps://twitter.com/LivEchonews/status/8554314199962746890 -
The bet returns should be £17TOPPING said:
It seems for all the world like it to me but perhaps I am missing something. I am going to write to them (and trust me not just customer support - I was thinking more investor relations) to ask about it!!malcolmg said:
Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.TOPPING said:Betting question team -
I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.
The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.
I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.
My calcs:
13 = 12/1
12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.
Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.
Surely can't be right? Or can it?
Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?
£5@12/1 loser
£5@12/5 winner
Stake £10
Return £17
Profit £70 -
And didn't at the time Emma Watson get ridiculed for not taking La La Land?SeanT said:
Same. Didn't like Jungle Book, was therefore not looking forward to this.kle4 said:
I loved it (didn't like the Jungle Book remake). My young niece did not, but without her I'd not be able to see it.SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's blood fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars
From my recollections I think they made Gaston even more villainous than the original cartoon.
It's superb. Funny, clever, visually amazing, great songs, brilliant ideas, and actually quite moving in places.0 -
They used trebuchets on the 4th Crusade...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Malmesbury, if we're adding that, we might as well end up including Manzikert and the Fourth Crusade...
Honestly, there is a limit. Labour has many die hard supporters and will be sheltered a lot by the electoral system.
I thought going down to 70 seat losses was quite sufficient.
Still, in the interests of science and completeness, I shall add a few more.
Edited extra bit: although, I've managed to stick with just Western stuff so far, and those two are Eastern.0 -
Yes, saw it a few weeks ago and it was excellent, biggest selling movie of 2017 so far (Dan Stevens who plays the Beast was also the year below me at school)SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's bloody fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars0 -
I have now. Extravagant production for a parody song!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, seen the Deadpool parody of the Gaston song? It's rather good.
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PM'd you.isam said:
The bet returns should be £17TOPPING said:
It seems for all the world like it to me but perhaps I am missing something. I am going to write to them (and trust me not just customer support - I was thinking more investor relations) to ask about it!!malcolmg said:
Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.TOPPING said:Betting question team -
I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.
The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.
I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.
My calcs:
13 = 12/1
12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.
Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.
Surely can't be right? Or can it?
Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?
£5@12/1 loser
£5@12/5 winner
Stake £10
Return £17
Profit £70 -
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
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Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
Great fun - caused a minor hoo-ha in Malaysia when the director observed that one of the characters was gay & Malaysian censors demanded cuts. Disney said Foxtrot Oscar and removed the film from distribution. Malaysia backed downSeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's bloody fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars0 -
If there's one pollster that will put the Tories on 50%+ it's surely MORI...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Via Ben Walker from BritainElects:
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post
0 -
You can be concurrently an MP and a Mayor.kle4 said:
You what? When's the close of nominations, as he will surely be Mayor by May 5th.TheScreamingEagles said:Is Steve Rotherham worried about Con winning the Liverpool Mayor. Con gain Bootle anyone?
tps://twitter.com/LivEchonews/status/855431419996274689
Boris and Ken managed it for a year each.0 -
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I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?calum said: 0 -
That's a beautiful way of typing "...were absolutely fictional partisan bollocks".GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
You said that not me...GeoffM said:
That's a beautiful way of typing "...were absolutely fictional partisan bollocks".GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support. 0 -
Ah yes cinemas, I remember them, one of the downsides of my current gig is I get into a town big enough to have a cinema about three times a year, and when I am there its usually some romcom garbage being shown!SeanT said:
Same. Didn't like Jungle Book, was therefore not looking forward to this.kle4 said:
I loved it (didn't like the Jungle Book remake). My young niece did not, but without her I'd not be able to see it.SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's blood fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars
From my recollections I think they made Gaston even more villainous than the original cartoon.
It's superb. Funny, clever, visually amazing, great songs, brilliant ideas, and actually quite moving in places.0 -
Can we have a couple of destroyers, please, to help with the capture of Andalucia?Malmesbury said:
Some more Batch 2 Rivers wouldn't be a completely silly idea.CarlottaVance said:Wonder what the Tories will do on Defence spending? More money for Fisheries Protection vessels?
0 -
My Grandson 6 cried when Gaston did what he did.( do not want to reveal the story too much, but we all know it).HYUFD said:
Yes, saw it a few weeks ago and it was excellent, biggest selling movie of 2017 so far (Dan Stevens who plays the Beast was also the year below me at school)SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's bloody fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars
Grandson came home and said "I hate Gaston".
The animation took us to a new level, no wonder it has been so well received.0 -
Yerr, you have a point, on NPs Updates from last time, putting to much wait on any one source/type of information can be a risk, but its still interesting to hear. and adds another angleGIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.0 -
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
As an aside, whoever is behind the Maomentum Twitter feed is an absolute genius. Political satire at its very best, laugh out loud funny especially when intertwined with retweets from real Corbyn supporters. https://twitter.com/Maomentum_0 -
I think the SP tend to use Survation.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Via Ben Walker from BritainElects:
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post0 -
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Absolutely stunning film. Enjoyed it immensely.SeanT said:Has anyone else seen Beauty and the Beast? It's bloody fabulous. Saw it with my older daughter today.
It's made a billion dollars making it the biggest movie musical of all time. And deservedly so.
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/04/beauty-and-the-beast-billion-dollars0 -
I know, but I'd assumed he would not be double jobbing.TheScreamingEagles said:
You can be concurrently an MP and a Mayor.kle4 said:
You what? When's the close of nominations, as he will surely be Mayor by May 5th.TheScreamingEagles said:Is Steve Rotherham worried about Con winning the Liverpool Mayor. Con gain Bootle anyone?
tps://twitter.com/LivEchonews/status/855431419996274689
Boris and Ken managed it for a year each.0 -
Theresa's personal ratings are pretty astonishing...CarlottaVance said:-1 -
I would imagine that Scottish UKIP will struggle to find and put up candidates this time, and the 1% or whatever they got last time will switch strata to SCON, without much fuss.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:0 -
Good old Bouncy MORI. They were the ones with Tories 52% in 2008ish, right?GIN1138 said:
If there's one pollster that will put the Tories on 50%+ it's surely MORI...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Via Ben Walker from BritainElects:
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post0 -
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...Sandpit said:
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?GIN1138 said:
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...BigRich said:
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.TOPPING said:News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
0
