politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Mike Smithson was right about his theory about the
Comments
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She dresses and wears make-up like someone at least 20 years younger.Cyclefree said:
Mrs May's lipstick is too red. It does her no favours. A plum colour or something softer would suit her better.williamglenn said:0 -
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
Exactly. That is why the LibDems will find it very heavy going.Paristonda said:
The one flaw with this is Labour remainers who still voted to trigger A50. That can be used against them by LDs (although I think Zeichner himself voted against A50 too so Cambridge specifically is probably safe)YBarddCwsc said:
Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?Chris_A said:
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
Where a Labour MP has a strong remain constituency, the LibDems will find an enthusiastic Remainer MP in place.
The Libdems are past master at turning two faces to the electorate. They can hardly complain when Labour play the same game.0 -
That's the 1983 Australian Labor Party option I was talking about earlier.Freggles said:0 -
I just spoke to a died in the wool labour supporting friend in a labour marginal ...The conversation basically went fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck, I'm voting green...But you will let the Tories in....Don't fucking care that fucker Corbyn has to go.SeanT said:Catastrophic vox pop for Labour on Newsnight. TMay is gonna waltz this.
I will put you down as a maybe?0 -
I hope so. Bryant seems totally un-Rhonda...YBarddCwsc said:My prediction is that P|aid will take the Rhondda.
They took it at the Welsh Assembly elections. The Labour MP is Chris Bryant, who is not well-matched to the constituency. He may even be up against Leanne Wood.
I think the Tories will take 4 seats in the North East, all very similar demographically with low thousand majorities and large Ukip votes (Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Wrexham and Clwyd S). This is a heavy Leave-voting area. If the Tories take one, then they’ll take all four.
I think Labour will also lose Bridgend, Ynys Mon, and perhaps one of the Newport seats.
So, I’d reckon in Wales, PC +2, Tories +5 or 6, Labour - 7 or 8.0 -
Andy cos most people in Scotland hate snp! It is one of our seats and is coming home. We might get 15 in Scotland which will be 15 more than lab. Although 5 is more likely0
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Now Thornberry is saying Labour are going to hold the Tories to their Brexit promises, that they won't be able to deliver... preparing for opposition? Why not win the election?!Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
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Barrow? We will win there by 8,0000
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Most overheard/read phrase today - "the positive is it is the end of Corbyn".
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So people think, though given her actions since the referendum, I'd say the Tory remainers and soft brexiters will continue to be disappointed.Artist said:The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then switch down the line?
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Preparing for Starbucks employment more like.isam said:
Now Thornberry is saying Labour are going to hold the Tories to their Brexit promises, but they won't be able to deliver... preparing for opposition?'Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
Lipstick never looks good. Ever.peter_from_putney said:
She dresses and wears make-up like someone at least 20 years younger.Cyclefree said:
Mrs May's lipstick is too red. It does her no favours. A plum colour or something softer would suit her better.williamglenn said:
Presumably I am in a minority in feeling this way, as cosmetics persist. But I find cosmetics mildly repulsive.
I have no objection to TMay's dress sense. She's reasonably attractive, for a woman in her early sixties. She's very attractive for a prime minister.0 -
'Pack of bastards...with brains', hell of an endorsement of Toryism there!0
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He's a bit more optimistic for Labour than me but operating in the same ballpark.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I notice newsnight also went with the nobody wants an election narrative...taps mic...Sniff sniff... Fake news0
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Gin!!!!!!! No but we will win Derbyshire ne, Ashfield and Derby s0
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I'm not sure where Bryant is suited for. All things considered, he's a bit pants.Mortimer said:
I hope so. Bryant seems totally un-Rhonda...YBarddCwsc said:My prediction is that P|aid will take the Rhondda.
They took it at the Welsh Assembly elections. The Labour MP is Chris Bryant, who is not well-matched to the constituency. He may even be up against Leanne Wood.
I think the Tories will take 4 seats in the North East, all very similar demographically with low thousand majorities and large Ukip votes (Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Wrexham and Clwyd S). This is a heavy Leave-voting area. If the Tories take one, then they’ll take all four.
I think Labour will also lose Bridgend, Ynys Mon, and perhaps one of the Newport seats.
So, I’d reckon in Wales, PC +2, Tories +5 or 6, Labour - 7 or 8.0 -
That was quite a bad performance. Evan Davis was just laughing at her! She seemed to forget that if labour win, they'll be in charge!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Preparing for Starbucks employment more like.isam said:
Now Thornberry is saying Labour are going to hold the Tories to their Brexit promises, but they won't be able to deliver... preparing for opposition?'Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
She always sounds like she is being sarky to me.isam said:
Now Thornberry is saying Labour are going to hold the Tories to their Brexit promises, that they won't be able to deliver... preparing for opposition? Why not win the election?!Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
Wonder if she'll go flag spotting this time around?0 -
And the three Nottingham seats. But not Leicester0
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Not sure why he/she isn't using percentages instead of votes.AlastairMeeks said:
He's a bit more optimistic for Labour than me but operating in the same ballpark.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I love how far leftists are convinced, utterly convinced, that the reason people don't like Corbyn is the media and establishment will not allow them to. Why do they think people are so easily brainwashed?0
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Billy bunter on sky earlier couldn't get through a segment on what if corbyn wins without bursting into laugther.isam said:
That was quite a bad performance. Evan Davis was just laughing at her! She seemed to forget that if labour win, they'll be in charge!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Preparing for Starbucks employment more like.isam said:
Now Thornberry is saying Labour are going to hold the Tories to their Brexit promises, but they won't be able to deliver... preparing for opposition?'Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
He was mocking a dyslexic for being a dyslexic the other day, so this is par for the course.AnneJGP said:
Seems to me you're really saying "I don't agree with her politics". It's an odd way to put it.surbiton said:
What an ugly face !williamglenn said:
If he wants to make it about personal appearance you'd think at the very least he'd put up a proper avatar pic of himself.0 -
Andy, can I suggest that you plug the spreadsheet that you prepared after the last election showing the party vote shares tabulated by constituency? It's a great piece of work and I've been spending a lot of time on it today.AndyJS said:
Not sure why he/she isn't using percentages instead of votes.AlastairMeeks said:
He's a bit more optimistic for Labour than me but operating in the same ballpark.TheScreamingEagles said:-1 -
Corbyn supporter Paul Mason "can't wait" for the election to happen. "Labour will win" he says.0
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Indeed , May really appeals to the core Labour WWC vote , think part of it is an anti posh boy swing , Tories should stick the 2nd woman on a broadcast, couldn't have summed up any better, "she cares about what ordinary people, normal people who go to work 9-5"Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/854457867470065664
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He is convinced the country wants a progressive alliance.AndyJS said:Corbyn supporter Paul Mason "can't wait" for the election to happen.
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Ha. It's like it is happening in a different world.williamglenn said:A bit of a contrast from the Scottish DM
hts://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/8544613159093862410 -
Given the red lipstick insight we have just witnessed, is it time to analyse the appropriateness of Nicola's red shoes?williamglenn said:A bit of a contrast from the Scottish DM
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/8544613159093862410 -
Surprised the Mail didn't state they don't do her legs any favours ;-)bobajobPB said:
Given the red lipstick insight we have just witnessed, is it time to analyse the appropriateness of Nicola's red shoes?williamglenn said:A bit of a contrast from the Scottish DM
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/8544613159093862410 -
Ha! Indeed.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprised the Mail didn't state they don't do her legs any favours ;-)bobajobPB said:
Given the red lipstick insight we have just witnessed, is it time to analyse the appropriateness of Nicola's red shoes?williamglenn said:A bit of a contrast from the Scottish DM
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/8544613159093862410 -
I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.0
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Under the Conservatives' leadership electoral systems from 1965 through to 1999, May would have been a clear winner on the second round at the latest and in reality, probably the first: something which no other new leader managed. (She received exactly 50% of the Con MPs' support in the first round, which might not have been enough in theory but in practice, other candidates would have withdrawn given that she was just 1 MP short of winning).Sunil_Prasannan said:
She is an elected MP, and nobody bothered standing against her after Loathsome dropped out.TheScreamingEagles said:
The unelected Mrs May complaining about the unelected Lords did break my irony meter.kle4 said:
Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus christ.williamglenn said:htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
The idea that May had no mandate from her party is to suggest that Wilson, Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher and Major had no mandate either.0 -
Trump wishes British people ‘best of luck’ in snap election
https://www.ft.com/content/9da7d9ac-5020-3f1c-a0b2-ef26c9aa62c0
Seems odd the PM needs to call the POTUS to inform him she's planning on having an election. Is it a protocol thing? Or related to his visit officially planned for june? I thought that was rescheduled to july/august anyway?
Strange.0 -
Bang on. No Tory has even got close to swaying these voters since Thatcher.Tony said:
Indeed , May really appeals to the core Labour WWC vote , think part of it is an anti posh boy swing , Tories should stick the 2nd woman on a broadcast, couldn't have summed up any better, "she cares about what ordinary people, normal people who go to work 9-5"Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/854457867470065664
Remarkable that the Posh boys won a slim majority; they were clearly holding the party back. Just wait for this majority...0 -
Must have been inspired by TSE's red shoesbobajobPB said:
Given the red lipstick insight we have just witnessed, is it time to analyse the appropriateness of Nicola's red shoes?williamglenn said:A bit of a contrast from the Scottish DM
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/854461315909386241 0 -
And, once again they need a half, or possibly quarter decent candidate as a semi-credible alternative.kle4 said:
They discuss a lot of things, but if they had no balls to do it before, what benefit now? It wouldn't work, and would just give the man an excuse. Who are these mythical MPs who text Dan Hodges about every thought that crosses through their skulls?Freggles said:0 -
Hoping for some good PEBs - I loved the Green Party musical one last time.0
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It made no difference to saving individual Lib Dem MPs in 2015 whether they voted to freeze tuition fees or not.Paristonda said:
The one flaw with this is Labour remainers who still voted to trigger A50. That can be used against them by LDs (although I think Zeichner himself voted against A50 too so Cambridge specifically is probably safe)YBarddCwsc said:
Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?Chris_A said:
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
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The left have staked the future of the Labour Party on Corbyn. The onus is now on him to deliver.0
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15?! I'd have thought that high single figures should be the absolute limit of realistic SCon ambitions.Ave_it said:Andy cos most people in Scotland hate snp! It is one of our seats and is coming home. We might get 15 in Scotland which will be 15 more than lab. Although 5 is more likely
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Never mind the election - who won the elegtion!FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprised the Mail didn't state they don't do her legs any favours ;-)bobajobPB said:
Given the red lipstick insight we have just witnessed, is it time to analyse the appropriateness of Nicola's red shoes?williamglenn said:A bit of a contrast from the Scottish DM
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/8544613159093862410 -
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.0
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPgS7p40ERgkle4 said:Hoping for some good PEBs - I loved the Green Party musical one last time.
Catchy - I hope they top it.0 -
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.0 -
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In 2001 it mainly depressed turnout all round. Wonder if that will be the case this time.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
This is Ave it, right?david_herdson said:
15?! I'd have thought that high single figures should be the absolute limit of realistic SCon ambitions.Ave_it said:Andy cos most people in Scotland hate snp! It is one of our seats and is coming home. We might get 15 in Scotland which will be 15 more than lab. Although 5 is more likely
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Chris yes 4 for me!
David - I will take the high single figure now! Which will be a high single figure more than lab0 -
Smiling Gordons was 2007. Blair was still leading Labour in 2005.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!
Blair is of course the only Labour leader to win an election in the last 40 years. They've had eight leaders in that time (seven of whom fought at least one election).0 -
I found this site in the run-up to the 2009 Euros. I was Googling "UK opinion polls" at the time.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!0 -
It's bad for turnout, that's for sure. Could be down to 60% again.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
Of course, but it was a feature of the site in the olden days!david_herdson said:
Smiling Gordons was 2007. Blair was still leading Labour in 2005.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!
Blair is of course the only Labour leader to win an election in the last 40 years. They've had eight leaders in that time (seven of whom fought at least one election).0 -
2010 GE for me. I had entered the workforce for the first time, but it was a job placement in the sense of 'get them off the unemployment figures' with no actual work for me to do, so I had a lot of browsing time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I found this site in the run-up to the 2009 Euros. I was Googling "UK opinion polls" at the time.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!0 -
Hopefully things have changed since then....kle4 said:
2010 GE for me. I had entered the workforce for the first time, but it was a job placement in the sense of 'get them off the unemployment figures' with no actual work for me to do, so I had a lot of browsing time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I found this site in the run-up to the 2009 Euros. I was Googling "UK opinion polls" at the time.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!0 -
What would we have this time? Murderous Theresas?RobD said:
Of course, but it was a feature of the site in the olden days!david_herdson said:
Smiling Gordons was 2007. Blair was still leading Labour in 2005.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!
Blair is of course the only Labour leader to win an election in the last 40 years. They've had eight leaders in that time (seven of whom fought at least one election).0 -
Unfortunate - historical trend was still down, but it was good that the line had been going back up the last few times.AndyJS said:
It's bad for turnout, that's for sure. Could be down to 60% again.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...0 -
Oh yes - its good multitasking that permits more browsing now.FrancisUrquhart said:
Hopefully things have changed since then....kle4 said:
2010 GE for me. I had entered the workforce for the first time, but it was a job placement in the sense of 'get them off the unemployment figures' with no actual work for me to do, so I had a lot of browsing time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I found this site in the run-up to the 2009 Euros. I was Googling "UK opinion polls" at the time.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!0 -
I found myself having to defend Tories tonight in a pub discussion. A guy said ' There are only two good things about Tories - burying them and burning them!'. I laughed but indicated I could not go quite that far.0
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Where is the line? Hanging them?justin124 said:I found myself having to defend Tories tonight in a pub discussion. A guy said ' There are only two good things about Tories - burying them and burning them!'. I laughed but indicated I could not go quite that far.
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2010 GE for me too, really wanted Brown out and was astonished when he held the tories to a minority.kle4 said:
2010 GE for me. I had entered the workforce for the first time, but it was a job placement in the sense of 'get them off the unemployment figures' with no actual work for me to do, so I had a lot of browsing time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I found this site in the run-up to the 2009 Euros. I was Googling "UK opinion polls" at the time.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!0 -
Voter in Barrow: "Tories are a pack of brats but they have brains. Might vote for them."0
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Whatever happened to Paul Mason - wasn't he once a big shot on Newsnight?FrancisUrquhart said:
He is convinced the country wants a progressive alliance.AndyJS said:Corbyn supporter Paul Mason "can't wait" for the election to happen.
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Quite like the slogan doing the rounds on Labour Facebook.
"Make June the end of May."
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He had a midlife crisis, said he couldn't lie to the nation anymore....and now a freelance journalist / activist / playwrite.peter_from_putney said:
Whatever happened to Paul Mason - wasn't he once a big shot on Newsnight?FrancisUrquhart said:
He is convinced the country wants a progressive alliance.AndyJS said:Corbyn supporter Paul Mason "can't wait" for the election to happen.
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He is sometimes, but not always, effective. 2005 GE. London Mayor 2016. He certainly ain't stupid, and has an open goal to aim at, but he is not all-powerful.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.0 -
Very measured. A family member once opined to me that so long as they were allowed to hunt down Tories, they were totally fine with hunting being legal. Worst I've heard in the opposite direction was disdain for the 'great unwashed', but I'm sure others go further.justin124 said:I found myself having to defend Tories tonight in a pub discussion. A guy said ' There are only two good things about Tories - burying them and burning them!'. I laughed but indicated I could not go quite that far.
Always good to get confirmation others are even more partisan than ourselves!0 -
Zac Goldsmith was f##king awful...like really really awful....he went from disaster to disaster in that campaign...in a Labour city and against an opponent that didn't make any missteps.dixiedean said:
He is sometimes, but not always, effective. 2005 GE. London Mayor 2016. He certainly ain't stupid, and has an open goal to aim at, but he is not all-powerful.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.0 -
No it is not.Chris_A said:
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.0 -
Yes three quidder it is me! But bed time now. But from tomorrow and every night - Ave it live commentary on the most important election since 1066! Goodnight all0
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I think that it is perfectly plausible that the SNP will lose more than ten seats at this GE.malcolmg said:What happened to TGOHF, I have yet to hear from him re whether he would back up his ridiculous mince about SNP losing more than 10 setas. I see he like most frothers is all mouth and no trousers, no backbone to back up his garbage and bet on it.
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So has that rule about major things happening whole OGH is on holiday been transferred to Keiran Pedley?0
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I found the site at the Cheadle by-election just after the 2005 election - also significantly under-utilised by my employer at the time!nunu said:
2010 GE for me too, really wanted Brown out and was astonished when he held the tories to a minority.kle4 said:
2010 GE for me. I had entered the workforce for the first time, but it was a job placement in the sense of 'get them off the unemployment figures' with no actual work for me to do, so I had a lot of browsing time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I found this site in the run-up to the 2009 Euros. I was Googling "UK opinion polls" at the time.RobD said:
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactlyChris_A said:I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
Bring back the smiling Gordons!0 -
Just catching up on Mrs Bucket interview on Newsnight...she couldn't even do the maths of 2017 - 2008....apparently that is 7 years.0
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If 1/3 of MPs have to deal with urgent constituency issues, are we sure she'd do the full no-confidence-yourself thing?Chris_A said:Amazed there's still over £15k available on 2017 at 1.01 on Betfair. Not a bad return for one day's deposit.
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Indeed. Proving a good campaign manager can't rescue a poor candidate. Of course, I would surmise (even as a Labour voter) that May will be a better campaigner than Corbyn will (by some distance), but that has yet to be proved. And I realise that is straw clutching!FrancisUrquhart said:
Zac Goldsmith was f##king awful...like really really awful....he went from disaster to disaster in that campaign...in a Labour city and against an opponent that didn't make any missteps.dixiedean said:
He is sometimes, but not always, effective. 2005 GE. London Mayor 2016. He certainly ain't stupid, and has an open goal to aim at, but he is not all-powerful.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.0 -
David, if you don't mind me asking (similarly any other Tories in the know) - who is writing the manifesto right now? What's the process? how much power does the 1922 have?david_herdson said:Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.
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The Scots are very lucky
Referendum 2014
General Election 2015
Holyrood Elections 2016
Local Elections & General Election 2017
Second referendum 2018 or 19.
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I don't think May will have any serious car crashes. Inspirational campaigner, absolutely not. But they will just point at the alternative swerving all over the road, crashing into every car on the road and say you want him instead.dixiedean said:
Indeed. Proving a good campaign manager can't rescue a poor candidate. Of course, I would surmise (even as a Labour voter) that May will be a better campaigner than Corbyn will (by some distance), but that has yet to be proved. And I realise that is straw clutching!FrancisUrquhart said:
Zac Goldsmith was f##king awful...like really really awful....he went from disaster to disaster in that campaign...in a Labour city and against an opponent that didn't make any missteps.dixiedean said:
He is sometimes, but not always, effective. 2005 GE. London Mayor 2016. He certainly ain't stupid, and has an open goal to aim at, but he is not all-powerful.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Hence why no tv debates etc.
I don't think that will be enough to get these crazy landslides of 100+, but 50-60 majority without any trouble.
IMO it needs to be enough to ensure Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ejected from the position of power within the Labour Party for good, but not too great to give May a total blank cheque to do absolutely anything she wants.0 -
I found PB during the 2005 general election but I didn't dare start posting until the 2006 local elections.
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Interesting from Anthony Wells on UKPR:
"The local elections will still go ahead at the start of May. It’s been a long time since that happened – in recent decades general elections have normally been held on the same day as the local elections – but it’s not unprecedented. In 1983 and 1987 the local elections were in May and the general elections followed in June. Notably they were really NOT a good predictor of the general election a month later. Comparing the Rallings & Thrasher estimates for the local elections those years with the subsequent general elections, in the 1983 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 3 points… they won the general election the next month by 14 points. In the 1987 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 6 points, in the general election a month later they were ahead by 11 points. In both cases the SDP-Liberal Alliance did much better in the locals than the general a month later."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/0 -
The Barrow interviews gave an extremely strong impression (and I find it hard to believe that Newsnight is spinning on behalf of the Tories) that May will pay no price at all, indeed quite the contrary, for her volte face on calling a snap election.AndyJS said:Voter in Barrow: "Tories are a pack of brats but they have brains. Might vote for them."
Even the (quite possibly temporary) recovery in real wages will work in her favour.
Of course the better she does with non-traditional Tory voters, the more prospect for severe disillusion in five years' time, but that is probably of little concern to her now.0 -
Just downright evil possibly!FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.0 -
Not sure I would have him around for dinner....he might stick a dead cat on my dinner table !!!justin124 said:
Just downright evil possibly!FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.david_herdson said:
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.Mortimer said:Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.0 -
Good question. I would guess that it will be made as brief as possible (both process and manifesto). Given the time constraints, how many can be involved anyway ?Pong said:
David, if you don't mind me asking (similarly any other Tories in the know) - who is writing the manifesto right now? What's the process? how much power does the 1922 have?david_herdson said:Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.
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Perhaps it will simply read....Brexit means Brexit...Nigelb said:
Good question. I would guess that it will be made as brief as possible (both process and manifesto). Given the time constraints, how many can be involved anyway ?Pong said:
David, if you don't mind me asking (similarly any other Tories in the know) - who is writing the manifesto right now? What's the process? how much power does the 1922 have?david_herdson said:Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.
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I also know of someone who wnated to donate blood but who declined to do so when his conditions were ruled to be unacceptable. He wanted a label applied to his donation stipulating 'Not to be given to Tory voters'. That is absolutely true!kle4 said:
Very measured. A family member once opined to me that so long as they were allowed to hunt down Tories, they were totally fine with hunting being legal. Worst I've heard in the opposite direction was disdain for the 'great unwashed', but I'm sure others go further.justin124 said:I found myself having to defend Tories tonight in a pub discussion. A guy said ' There are only two good things about Tories - burying them and burning them!'. I laughed but indicated I could not go quite that far.
Always good to get confirmation others are even more partisan than ourselves!0
