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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    The beeb will take a few.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    TSE's hatred for May's government is equalled only by the venom seen in the comments of The Guardian. Does he think he is discriminated against?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Day 2 - 49.... Stability stability stability vs terrorist supporting total moron fucks up again*.

    * Let's not forget he had a total car crash interview only this morning.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    edited April 2017

    Omnium said:

    » show previous quotes
    Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.

    Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)

    I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
    Melenchon might win the French election, Le Pen won't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
    How is Corbyn going to do it?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,704

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.

    I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
    Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.

    Big if, that said.
    I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.
    Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.

    The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).

    What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
    No SDP this time.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Where's Alastair Meeks when you need him to spot those early bird value bets on the GE?

    Just remember, I get to see Alastair's threads before anyone else, and I get all the value on the bets before anyone else.
    We need to wait for next week for the 50/1 constituency bets
    Con gain all the Glasgow seats.

    If only Shadsy did accumulators.
    Even after the 50/1 wonderland (that i did not partake of, alas)was over the Scottish constituency market was the most generous betting market i have ever seen, even up to the eve of the election.
    I wonder if Coral will offer the Scottish Tory MPs > Than the number of Pandas in Scotland bet.

    I really really really really really wanted to win that bet.


    It was the bet that confirmed to my colleagues that I had a gambling addiction.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    Floater said:

    The beeb will take a few.
    I think they already nicked all the half decent ones at the last election.

    Perhaps given a possible shortage of barrisatas there are opportunities there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Jonathan said:

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
    How is Corbyn going to do it?
    Melenchon is ~ 5% behind getting into the top 2 in r2, and wins vs the other person most (By odds still) likely to also make r2 (Le Pen).

    Corbyn is ~24 pts behind and needs to be about 4 pts in front in 50 days.

    Massively bigger task !
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.

    Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
    Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.

    I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    TOPPING said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.

    I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
    Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.

    Big if, that said.
    The only party vaguely capable of making that happen are UKIP.

    The right will clock up 52-55% - split between two parties.
    The left will clock up 45%-48% - split between five.

    Brexit betrayal is the only narrative that will eat into the Tory vote.

    They are ahead on competence, the economy, the leader and most policy areas.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.

    I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
    Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.

    Big if, that said.
    I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.
    Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.

    The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).

    What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
    Child of the 90s, increasing Tory leads do not accord with the reality I was brought up with.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
    How is Corbyn going to do it?
    Melenchon is ~ 5% behind getting into the top 2 in r2, and wins vs the other person most (By odds still) likely to also make r2 (Le Pen).

    Corbyn is ~24 pts behind and needs to be about 4 pts in front in 50 days.

    Massively bigger task !
    Dust off the free owls policy...That should do the trick.
  • perdix said:

    TSE's hatred for May's government is equalled only by the venom seen in the comments of The Guardian. Does he think he is discriminated against?

    Yup, I'm a persecuted minority. I'm a pro-AV, working class Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    Is someone trying to get Ken Livingstone back on the site?

    Most amusing :-)
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,704
    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.

    Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
    Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.

    I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
    Shame on you.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Con Maj is 1.24 - so 20% chance Con lose their majority.

    Now Corbyn may be unable to govern effectively if that happens but I can't imagine LD or SNP supporting Con.

    If Con are more than 10 seats short they are surely out of power.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.

    I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
    Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.

    Big if, that said.
    I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.
    Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.

    The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).

    What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
    No SDP this time.
    True, the Thatcher/Foot election was unusual in that respect.

    I do remember that election. I remember thinking Foot went to down to his defeat gracefully.
    And I remember thinking that was all the more impressive, because the Labour organisation and campaign was a shambles, and it was obvious to all that he was going down to a terrible defeat.

    But, even though Foot behaved gracefully, I think the campaign increased the Tory lead. The shambolic campaign simply disheartened Labour supporters & voters.

    I don’t know what will happen this time (and I certainly don’t want a 100+ Tory majority). But, I think it is quite possible that the campaign may increase the Tory lead.


  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"

    Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.

    What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!
    Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.
    Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.

    The man's a fool.
    Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.

    Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
    He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"
    As has been rehearsed on here many times, it is impossible for an opposition to refuse the opportunity for a GE. There is simply no credible line to take against it.
    You are right but how was the FTPA ever supposed to work?
    The FPTA was a brilliant idea, except it had one eensy teensy weensy flaw, it never prepared for the possibility of a majority government between 2010 and 2020.
    What we need in this country is a form of AV!
    What is this AV of which you speak?

    Perhaps TSE could do a post on it......
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    HYUFD said:

    BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected

    The Irish, Dutch and Danish PMs have a 'we want a comprehensive free trade deal with the UK ' bloc planning meeting scheduled for Friday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    What's a good guess at turnout I wonder? How motivated will the less certain Tories be when they look certain to win anyway? Will disenchanted Lab voters stay home?

    It was 66.4% in 2015, with Corbyn unpopular, UKIP seemingly with little to motivate people with, and (though they back doing it) some voter fatigue, 60-65 has to be the likely winner?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    There may be a tory gain in perth & north perthshire
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.

    ICM have the public expressing 77% support (D/Ks removed).

    These media people seem to live in a different world, cohabited by luvvies.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"

    Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.

    What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!
    Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.
    Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.

    The man's a fool.
    Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.

    Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
    He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"
    As has been rehearsed on here many times, it is impossible for an opposition to refuse the opportunity for a GE. There is simply no credible line to take against it.
    You are right but how was the FTPA ever supposed to work?
    The FPTA was a brilliant idea, except it had one eensy teensy weensy flaw, it never prepared for the possibility of a majority government between 2010 and 2020.
    What we need in this country is a form of AV!
    What is this AV of which you speak?

    Perhaps TSE could do a post on it......
    ADULT VIDEOS :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    I know Corbyn is useless, but Woodcock's position is an utter nonsense. To not be behind the leader on day 1 of a GE campaign...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected

    The Irish, Dutch and Danish PMs have a 'we want a comprehensive free trade deal with the UK ' bloc planning meeting scheduled for Friday.
    Could be interesting
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    chestnut said:

    The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.

    ICM have the public expressing 77% support.

    These media people seem to live in a different world, cohabited by luvvies.
    That is a total shock to me, over the past few years they always seemed to have their fingers on the pulse of the nation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.

    What about the poor electoral officers who probably booked holidays for late may/early june? Poor bastards have had a lot of work the last few years.

    Still, it's a nice way of getting a few hundred extra quid in your pocket for supporting the democratic process as a volunteer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
    No, we have done this, that stat is rubbish.

    Regardless the French have a serious problem with their labour laws, even hollande realised that.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).

    I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    perdix said:

    TSE's hatred for May's government is equalled only by the venom seen in the comments of The Guardian. Does he think he is discriminated against?

    Yup, I'm a persecuted minority. I'm a pro-AV, working class Tory.
    TSE is a Quasi-Tory!

    BTW, remember the AV referendum?

    No 2 AV 68%
    Yes 2 AV 32%

    :innocent:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    I must have missed her doing that! :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).

    I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
    Evens the pair for Cambridge, (I win LDs, you win Labour, Tories win No bet) ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    surbiton said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    What an ugly face !
    Charming, as ever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Shouldn't that daily mail be "crush the enemies of the people"?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.

    I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
    Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.

    Big if, that said.
    I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.
    Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.

    The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).

    What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
    No SDP this time.
    True, the Thatcher/Foot election was unusual in that respect.

    I do remember that election. I remember thinking Foot went to down to his defeat gracefully.
    And I remember thinking that was all the more impressive, because the Labour organisation and campaign was a shambles, and it was obvious to all that he was going down to a terrible defeat.

    But, even though Foot behaved gracefully, I think the campaign increased the Tory lead. The shambolic campaign simply disheartened Labour supporters & voters.

    I don’t know what will happen this time (and I certainly don’t want a 100+ Tory majority). But, I think it is quite possible that the campaign may increase the Tory lead.


    The Tory voteshare in1983 was 1.5% down from 1979, the reason Foot lost eas that Labour's share dropped even further. Thats FPTP, but even in her heyday there was a swing against Maggie.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited April 2017

    chestnut said:

    The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.

    ICM have the public expressing 77% support.

    These media people seem to live in a different world, cohabited by luvvies.
    That is a total shock to me, over the past few years they always seemed to have their fingers on the pulse of the nation.
    The sarcasm is strong in this one.

    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    It's best they are grouped in one place, for their safety as much as anyone elses .

    Initial, no evidence, gut feeling, not bothering to make them add up yet, predictions:

    CON 380-405
    LAB 190-200
    SNP 54-55
    LD 12-15


    NI - who cares, it's its own thing.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Mrs May's lipstick is too red. It does her no favours. A plum colour or something softer would suit her better.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
    Yes, hugely.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    I must have missed her doing that! :p
    The people of 2017 must vote in accordance with the will of the people of 2016.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).

    I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
    Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Chris_A said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
    Not sure many would-be LDs read the Mail.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Early prediction would be a majority of around 80 to 90. I don't think the 150 scenario will happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited April 2017

    htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus Christ. I'd be more on board with giving May a free hand if it was not like joining a bloody cult which will beat you if you try to deviate the way the papers make it look.

    And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    The beeb will take a few.
    I think they already nicked all the half decent ones at the last election.

    Perhaps given a possible shortage of barrisatas there are opportunities there.
    Don't barristas have some useful skills?

    Just saying..........
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.

    Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
    Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.

    I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
    Shame on you.
    Er, why?
  • kle4 said:

    htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus christ.

    And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
    The unelected Mrs May complaining about the unelected Lords did break my irony meter.
  • Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I certainly wouldn't go that high for the LibDems but 8/1 from Laddies for them to win between 30 - 39 seats looks pretty fair value, assuming they were to win around 10-14 seats from the Tories and around 8-12 from Labour +the nine seats they already have = ~31 seats .... kerching! Quite a big ask, but then 8/1 is quite a big price.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    surbiton said:
    PMILF, actually :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Freggles said:
    They discuss a lot of things, but if they had no balls to do it before, what benefit now? It wouldn't work, and would just give the man an excuse. Who are these mythical MPs who text Dan Hodges about every thought that crosses through their skulls?
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
    Not sure many would-be LDs read the Mail.
    No sentient being with more than 2 brain cells reads the Mail, but poisonous headlines like this certainly fires them up.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.

    I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
    Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.

    Big if, that said.
    I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.
    Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.

    The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).

    What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
    No SDP this time.
    No, but there are UKIP, the Greens and the Lib Dems.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Pong is correct.

    Perth and Perthshire N is a nailed on Con gain
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    sources said that Mrs May had "run the numbers" and carefully analysed the party's internal polling, which is likely to have been carried out by Mr Crosby's organisation.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/sir-lynton-crosby-play-key-role-theresa-mays-general-election/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Pulpstar said:

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
    Melenchon might win the French election, Le Pen won't.
    Le Pen might but she needs Fillon to get through and then suffer a further embarrassment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.

    Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
    Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.

    I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
    Shame on you.
    Er, why?
    You're not supposed to move on from a party just because it no longer supports you, your values or what you perceive as the wider needs of society?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    kle4 said:

    htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus christ.

    And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
    The unelected Mrs May complaining about the unelected Lords did break my irony meter.
    She is an elected MP, and nobody bothered standing against her after Loathsome dropped out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    AndyJS said:

    Early prediction would be a majority of around 80 to 90. I don't think the 150 scenario will happen.

    Well if Andy was thinking in the same range as me, now I'm a lot more confident.

    People are forgetting just how entrenched so many MPs are. It takes a Scotland shift to move most of them.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.

    Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
    No, we have done this, that stat is rubbish.

    Regardless the French have a serious problem with their labour laws, even hollande realised that.
    LOL - I purchased a hotel in France a while back.

    The advice I was given, don't take on any of the staff as otherwise you will never be able to be rid of them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dadge said:

    AndyJS said:

    We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?

    Possibilities are Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, B'ham Yardley.
    Jess may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but she's quickly become very popular and I doubt even Hemming could dislodge her.
    There are plenty of UKIP and Tory voters in the constituency who might vote tactically.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).

    I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
    Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.
    Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?

    The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."

    The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.

    If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425

    Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
    Not sure many would-be LDs read the Mail.
    They see it though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    surbiton said:
    Classy you progressives eh?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    sources said that Mrs May had "run the numbers" and carefully analysed the party's internal polling, which is likely to have been carried out by Mr Crosby's organisation.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/sir-lynton-crosby-play-key-role-theresa-mays-general-election/

    A lot hinges on how successfully they hammer Corbyn's Labour. If they deliver an absolute knock-out blow early in the campaign, it might leave a vacuum that the Lib Dems can grow into, and go into polling day as the clear challengers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:


    Omnium said:

    » show previous quotes
    Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.

    Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)

    I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.

    No you are a minority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Well, these headlines should certainly scare the bejeezes out of wavering Labour voters - 7 weeks of headlines like that might do more to get out the vote to avoid annihilation than an amount of pleading from Comrade Corbyn. Wanting him to lose badly to save the party is one thing, but being killed off?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).

    I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
    Evens the pair for Cambridge, (I win LDs, you win Labour, Tories win No bet) ?
    I suspect I can get better odds elsewhere, as the assumption that Canbridge is a nailed-on LibDem gain seems rather prevalent (see ChrisA).
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    surbiton said:
    Seems to me you're really saying "I don't agree with her politics". It's an odd way to put it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    What bet May stumbles in PMQs tomorrow? I feel like Corbyn, who is pretty terrible, is made for one perfect moment of being underestimated and in that instant landing an unexpected blow.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.
  • TOPPING said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.

    I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
    Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.

    Big if, that said.
    There's no one on God's earth more capable than Curtice of turning a good number for the Tories into a bad one ..... he leaves OGH absolutely standingl!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Lol lab 1-500 in Cambridge
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    https://reaction.life/early-election-theresa-maybe-brilliant/

    I particularly liked

    3) Corbynista hard left? Meet the voters… what is potentially so delicious about this election is that these malicious muppets in the far left leadership have been for decades strutting about as though if only they get their turn they will sweep the board. They have been exposed as total duds. Now, we are about to watch them attempt to run a general election campaign with a media hungry to see what happens. Corbyn deserves this early election. He is not a nice man at all. He is a friend of the IRA and a far-left loon who would bankrupt the country.
  • Ave_it said:

    Lol lab 1-500 in Cambridge

    Welcome back Ave_it ..... right on cue!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited April 2017
    The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then switch down the line?
  • bobajobPB said:

    The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.

    It's been PB's busiest day since July 11th 2016
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Amazed there's still over £15k available on 2017 at 1.01 on Betfair. Not a bad return for one day's deposit.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).

    I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
    Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.
    Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?

    The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."

    The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.

    If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
    The one flaw with this is Labour remainers who still voted to trigger A50. That can be used against them by LDs (although I think Zeichner himself voted against A50 too so Cambridge specifically is probably safe)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2017
    Ave_it said:

    Lol lab 1-500 in Cambridge

    Ave It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Con Gain Bolsover? :smiley:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    bobajobPB said:

    The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.

    It's been PB's busiest day since July 11th 2016
    A Depeche Mode concert AND a snap election within the first 8 days of June 2017!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Artist said:

    The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then disappoint these same people down the line?

    At every point in the process the PBeratti have read the least Leave into everything. Today is a case in point...
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    My prediction is that P|aid will take the Rhondda.

    They took it at the Welsh Assembly elections. The Labour MP is Chris Bryant, who is not well-matched to the constituency. He may even be up against Leanne Wood.

    I think the Tories will take 4 seats in the North East, all very similar demographically with low thousand majorities and large Ukip votes (Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Wrexham and Clwyd S). This is a heavy Leave-voting area. If the Tories take one, then they’ll take all four.

    I think Labour will also lose Bridgend, Ynys Mon, and perhaps one of the Newport seats.

    So, I’d reckon in Wales, PC +2, Tories +5 or 6, Labour - 7 or 8.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.

    It's been PB's busiest day since July 11th 2016
    Fair enough. There don't seem to be many posts, considering.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    RobD said:

    Chris_A said:

    I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.

    How many do you think she'll get?
    I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
    I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.

    I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).

    I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
    Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.
    Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?

    The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."

    The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.

    If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
    In a party whose support is decidedly ambiguous.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Artist said:

    The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then disappoint these same people down the line?

    The Sun and Mail are trying to create their own narrative for their own purposes, they are wrong. May was facing next to no pressure from the Remain side anyway. They all voted for A50 and defend her in public. A couple of golden oldies like Heseltine didn't scare her into an election. The right of the tory party are still far more bastardy even now, and the press themselves have been dragging her towards hard brexit. She can win a majority over Labour even if she explicitly said she wanted a soft brexit (she won't of course), so she is doing this to get the 'brexit-ultras' off her back, not the 'remoaners'.
This discussion has been closed.