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Comments
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The beeb will take a few.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are they that employable?Scott_P said:0 -
TSE's hatred for May's government is equalled only by the venom seen in the comments of The Guardian. Does he think he is discriminated against?0
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Day 2 - 49.... Stability stability stability vs terrorist supporting total moron fucks up again*.Scott_P said:
* Let's not forget he had a total car crash interview only this morning.0 -
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.
Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)
I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.0 -
Melenchon might win the French election, Le Pen won't.bigjohnowls said:
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chanceFrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
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How is Corbyn going to do it?bigjohnowls said:
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chanceFrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
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No SDP this time.YBarddCwsc said:
Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.kle4 said:
I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.TOPPING said:
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.Chris_A said:I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Big if, that said.
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.0 -
I wonder if Coral will offer the Scottish Tory MPs > Than the number of Pandas in Scotland bet.Alistair said:
Even after the 50/1 wonderland (that i did not partake of, alas)was over the Scottish constituency market was the most generous betting market i have ever seen, even up to the eve of the election.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain all the Glasgow seats.Alistair said:
We need to wait for next week for the 50/1 constituency betsTheScreamingEagles said:
Just remember, I get to see Alastair's threads before anyone else, and I get all the value on the bets before anyone else.peter_from_putney said:Where's Alastair Meeks when you need him to spot those early bird value bets on the GE?
If only Shadsy did accumulators.
I really really really really really wanted to win that bet.
It was the bet that confirmed to my colleagues that I had a gambling addiction.0 -
I think they already nicked all the half decent ones at the last election.Floater said:
The beeb will take a few.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are they that employable?Scott_P said:
Perhaps given a possible shortage of barrisatas there are opportunities there.0 -
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Melenchon is ~ 5% behind getting into the top 2 in r2, and wins vs the other person most (By odds still) likely to also make r2 (Le Pen).Jonathan said:
How is Corbyn going to do it?bigjohnowls said:
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chanceFrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Corbyn is ~24 pts behind and needs to be about 4 pts in front in 50 days.
Massively bigger task !0 -
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.bigjohnowls said:
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXITbobajobPB said:The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.0 -
The only party vaguely capable of making that happen are UKIP.TOPPING said:
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.Chris_A said:I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Big if, that said.
The right will clock up 52-55% - split between two parties.
The left will clock up 45%-48% - split between five.
Brexit betrayal is the only narrative that will eat into the Tory vote.
They are ahead on competence, the economy, the leader and most policy areas.
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Child of the 90s, increasing Tory leads do not accord with the reality I was brought up with.YBarddCwsc said:
Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.kle4 said:
I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.TOPPING said:
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.Chris_A said:I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Big if, that said.
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.0 -
Dust off the free owls policy...That should do the trick.Pulpstar said:
Melenchon is ~ 5% behind getting into the top 2 in r2, and wins vs the other person most (By odds still) likely to also make r2 (Le Pen).Jonathan said:
How is Corbyn going to do it?bigjohnowls said:
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chanceFrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Corbyn is ~24 pts behind and needs to be about 4 pts in front in 50 days.
Massively bigger task !0 -
Yup, I'm a persecuted minority. I'm a pro-AV, working class Tory.perdix said:TSE's hatred for May's government is equalled only by the venom seen in the comments of The Guardian. Does he think he is discriminated against?
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BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected0
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Shame on you.bobajobPB said:
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.bigjohnowls said:
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXITbobajobPB said:The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.0 -
Con Maj is 1.24 - so 20% chance Con lose their majority.
Now Corbyn may be unable to govern effectively if that happens but I can't imagine LD or SNP supporting Con.
If Con are more than 10 seats short they are surely out of power.0 -
True, the Thatcher/Foot election was unusual in that respect.bigjohnowls said:
No SDP this time.YBarddCwsc said:
Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.kle4 said:
I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.TOPPING said:
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.Chris_A said:I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Big if, that said.
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
I do remember that election. I remember thinking Foot went to down to his defeat gracefully.
And I remember thinking that was all the more impressive, because the Labour organisation and campaign was a shambles, and it was obvious to all that he was going down to a terrible defeat.
But, even though Foot behaved gracefully, I think the campaign increased the Tory lead. The shambolic campaign simply disheartened Labour supporters & voters.
I don’t know what will happen this time (and I certainly don’t want a 100+ Tory majority). But, I think it is quite possible that the campaign may increase the Tory lead.
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What is this AV of which you speak?Beverley_C said:
What we need in this country is a form of AV!TheScreamingEagles said:
The FPTA was a brilliant idea, except it had one eensy teensy weensy flaw, it never prepared for the possibility of a majority government between 2010 and 2020.DecrepitJohnL said:
You are right but how was the FTPA ever supposed to work?TOPPING said:
As has been rehearsed on here many times, it is impossible for an opposition to refuse the opportunity for a GE. There is simply no credible line to take against it.Beverley_C said:
He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.Beverley_C said:
Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.kle4 said:
Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.Beverley_C said:
What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!SeanT said:Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"
Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.
The man's a fool.
Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
Perhaps TSE could do a post on it......0 -
The Irish, Dutch and Danish PMs have a 'we want a comprehensive free trade deal with the UK ' bloc planning meeting scheduled for Friday.HYUFD said:BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected
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The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.0
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What's a good guess at turnout I wonder? How motivated will the less certain Tories be when they look certain to win anyway? Will disenchanted Lab voters stay home?
It was 66.4% in 2015, with Corbyn unpopular, UKIP seemingly with little to motivate people with, and (though they back doing it) some voter fatigue, 60-65 has to be the likely winner?0 -
There may be a tory gain in perth & north perthshire0
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ICM have the public expressing 77% support (D/Ks removed).FrancisUrquhart said:The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.
These media people seem to live in a different world, cohabited by luvvies.0 -
ADULT VIDEOSFloater said:
What is this AV of which you speak?Beverley_C said:
What we need in this country is a form of AV!TheScreamingEagles said:
The FPTA was a brilliant idea, except it had one eensy teensy weensy flaw, it never prepared for the possibility of a majority government between 2010 and 2020.DecrepitJohnL said:
You are right but how was the FTPA ever supposed to work?TOPPING said:
As has been rehearsed on here many times, it is impossible for an opposition to refuse the opportunity for a GE. There is simply no credible line to take against it.Beverley_C said:
He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.Beverley_C said:
Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.kle4 said:
Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.Beverley_C said:
What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!SeanT said:Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"
Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.
The man's a fool.
Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
Perhaps TSE could do a post on it......0 -
I know Corbyn is useless, but Woodcock's position is an utter nonsense. To not be behind the leader on day 1 of a GE campaign...0
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Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?FrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
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Could be interestingchestnut said:
The Irish, Dutch and Danish PMs have a 'we want a comprehensive free trade deal with the UK ' bloc planning meeting scheduled for Friday.HYUFD said:BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected
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That is a total shock to me, over the past few years they always seemed to have their fingers on the pulse of the nation.chestnut said:
ICM have the public expressing 77% support.FrancisUrquhart said:The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.
These media people seem to live in a different world, cohabited by luvvies.0 -
What about the poor electoral officers who probably booked holidays for late may/early june? Poor bastards have had a lot of work the last few years.FrancisUrquhart said:The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.
Still, it's a nice way of getting a few hundred extra quid in your pocket for supporting the democratic process as a volunteer.0 -
No, we have done this, that stat is rubbish.foxinsoxuk said:
Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?FrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Regardless the French have a serious problem with their labour laws, even hollande realised that.0 -
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
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TSE is a Quasi-Tory!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, I'm a persecuted minority. I'm a pro-AV, working class Tory.perdix said:TSE's hatred for May's government is equalled only by the venom seen in the comments of The Guardian. Does he think he is discriminated against?
BTW, remember the AV referendum?
No 2 AV 68%
Yes 2 AV 32%0 -
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I must have missed her doing that!williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
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Bloody hellwilliamglenn said:0 -
What an ugly face !williamglenn said:-1 -
Evens the pair for Cambridge, (I win LDs, you win Labour, Tories win No bet) ?YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.0 -
Charming, as ever.surbiton said:
What an ugly face !williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
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Shouldn't that daily mail be "crush the enemies of the people"?0
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The Tory voteshare in1983 was 1.5% down from 1979, the reason Foot lost eas that Labour's share dropped even further. Thats FPTP, but even in her heyday there was a swing against Maggie.YBarddCwsc said:
True, the Thatcher/Foot election was unusual in that respect.bigjohnowls said:
No SDP this time.YBarddCwsc said:
Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.kle4 said:
I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.TOPPING said:
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.Chris_A said:I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Big if, that said.
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
I do remember that election. I remember thinking Foot went to down to his defeat gracefully.
And I remember thinking that was all the more impressive, because the Labour organisation and campaign was a shambles, and it was obvious to all that he was going down to a terrible defeat.
But, even though Foot behaved gracefully, I think the campaign increased the Tory lead. The shambolic campaign simply disheartened Labour supporters & voters.
I don’t know what will happen this time (and I certainly don’t want a 100+ Tory majority). But, I think it is quite possible that the campaign may increase the Tory lead.0 -
The sarcasm is strong in this one.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is a total shock to me, over the past few years they always seemed to have their fingers on the pulse of the nation.chestnut said:
ICM have the public expressing 77% support.FrancisUrquhart said:The amount of moaning from the media about the GE has to be down to messing up their summer holiday plans.
These media people seem to live in a different world, cohabited by luvvies.
It's best they are grouped in one place, for their safety as much as anyone elses .YBarddCwsc said:
Initial, no evidence, gut feeling, not bothering to make them add up yet, predictions:
CON 380-405
LAB 190-200
SNP 54-55
LD 12-15
NI - who cares, it's its own thing.0 -
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.williamglenn said:0 -
Mrs May's lipstick is too red. It does her no favours. A plum colour or something softer would suit her better.williamglenn said:
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Yes, hugely.foxinsoxuk said:
Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?FrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
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The people of 2017 must vote in accordance with the will of the people of 2016.RobD said:
I must have missed her doing that!williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
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Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.0 -
Not sure many would-be LDs read the Mail.Chris_A said:
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
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Early prediction would be a majority of around 80 to 90. I don't think the 150 scenario will happen.0
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Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus Christ. I'd be more on board with giving May a free hand if it was not like joining a bloody cult which will beat you if you try to deviate the way the papers make it look.williamglenn said:htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.0 -
Don't barristas have some useful skills?FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they already nicked all the half decent ones at the last election.Floater said:
The beeb will take a few.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are they that employable?Scott_P said:
Perhaps given a possible shortage of barrisatas there are opportunities there.
Just saying..........0 -
Er, why?bigjohnowls said:
Shame on you.bobajobPB said:
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.bigjohnowls said:
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXITbobajobPB said:The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.0 -
The unelected Mrs May complaining about the unelected Lords did break my irony meter.kle4 said:
Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus christ.williamglenn said:htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.0 -
I certainly wouldn't go that high for the LibDems but 8/1 from Laddies for them to win between 30 - 39 seats looks pretty fair value, assuming they were to win around 10-14 seats from the Tories and around 8-12 from Labour +the nine seats they already have = ~31 seats .... kerching! Quite a big ask, but then 8/1 is quite a big price.Chris_A said:0 -
PMILF, actuallysurbiton said:
What an ugly face !williamglenn said:0 -
bigjohn look away nowTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They discuss a lot of things, but if they had no balls to do it before, what benefit now? It wouldn't work, and would just give the man an excuse. Who are these mythical MPs who text Dan Hodges about every thought that crosses through their skulls?Freggles said:0 -
No sentient being with more than 2 brain cells reads the Mail, but poisonous headlines like this certainly fires them up.RobD said:
Not sure many would-be LDs read the Mail.Chris_A said:
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
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No, but there are UKIP, the Greens and the Lib Dems.bigjohnowls said:
No SDP this time.YBarddCwsc said:
Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.kle4 said:
I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.TOPPING said:
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.Chris_A said:I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Big if, that said.
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.0 -
Pong is correct.
Perth and Perthshire N is a nailed on Con gain0 -
sources said that Mrs May had "run the numbers" and carefully analysed the party's internal polling, which is likely to have been carried out by Mr Crosby's organisation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/sir-lynton-crosby-play-key-role-theresa-mays-general-election/0 -
Le Pen might but she needs Fillon to get through and then suffer a further embarrassment.Pulpstar said:
Melenchon might win the French election, Le Pen won't.bigjohnowls said:
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chanceFrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
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You're not supposed to move on from a party just because it no longer supports you, your values or what you perceive as the wider needs of society?bobajobPB said:
Er, why?bigjohnowls said:
Shame on you.bobajobPB said:
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.bigjohnowls said:
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXITbobajobPB said:The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.0 -
She is an elected MP, and nobody bothered standing against her after Loathsome dropped out.TheScreamingEagles said:
The unelected Mrs May complaining about the unelected Lords did break my irony meter.kle4 said:
Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus christ.williamglenn said:htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.0 -
Well if Andy was thinking in the same range as me, now I'm a lot more confident.AndyJS said:Early prediction would be a majority of around 80 to 90. I don't think the 150 scenario will happen.
People are forgetting just how entrenched so many MPs are. It takes a Scotland shift to move most of them.0 -
LOL - I purchased a hotel in France a while back.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, we have done this, that stat is rubbish.foxinsoxuk said:
Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?FrancisUrquhart said:I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Regardless the French have a serious problem with their labour laws, even hollande realised that.
The advice I was given, don't take on any of the staff as otherwise you will never be able to be rid of them.0 -
There are plenty of UKIP and Tory voters in the constituency who might vote tactically.Dadge said:
Jess may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but she's quickly become very popular and I doubt even Hemming could dislodge her.AndyJS said:
Possibilities are Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, B'ham Yardley.not_on_fire said:We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?
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Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?Chris_A said:
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
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They see it though.RobD said:
Not sure many would-be LDs read the Mail.Chris_A said:
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854449280865767425
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Classy you progressives eh?surbiton said:
What an ugly face !williamglenn said:0 -
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A lot hinges on how successfully they hammer Corbyn's Labour. If they deliver an absolute knock-out blow early in the campaign, it might leave a vacuum that the Lib Dems can grow into, and go into polling day as the clear challengers.FrancisUrquhart said:sources said that Mrs May had "run the numbers" and carefully analysed the party's internal polling, which is likely to have been carried out by Mr Crosby's organisation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/sir-lynton-crosby-play-key-role-theresa-mays-general-election/0 -
No you are a minority.malcolmg said:
Omnium said:
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Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.
Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)
I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.0 -
Well, these headlines should certainly scare the bejeezes out of wavering Labour voters - 7 weeks of headlines like that might do more to get out the vote to avoid annihilation than an amount of pleading from Comrade Corbyn. Wanting him to lose badly to save the party is one thing, but being killed off?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I suspect I can get better odds elsewhere, as the assumption that Canbridge is a nailed-on LibDem gain seems rather prevalent (see ChrisA).Pulpstar said:
Evens the pair for Cambridge, (I win LDs, you win Labour, Tories win No bet) ?YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
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Seems to me you're really saying "I don't agree with her politics". It's an odd way to put it.surbiton said:
What an ugly face !williamglenn said:0 -
What bet May stumbles in PMQs tomorrow? I feel like Corbyn, who is pretty terrible, is made for one perfect moment of being underestimated and in that instant landing an unexpected blow.0
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The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.0
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There's no one on God's earth more capable than Curtice of turning a good number for the Tories into a bad one ..... he leaves OGH absolutely standingl!TOPPING said:
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.FrancisUrquhart said:
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.Chris_A said:I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Big if, that said.0 -
Lol lab 1-500 in Cambridge0
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https://reaction.life/early-election-theresa-maybe-brilliant/
I particularly liked
3) Corbynista hard left? Meet the voters… what is potentially so delicious about this election is that these malicious muppets in the far left leadership have been for decades strutting about as though if only they get their turn they will sweep the board. They have been exposed as total duds. Now, we are about to watch them attempt to run a general election campaign with a media hungry to see what happens. Corbyn deserves this early election. He is not a nice man at all. He is a friend of the IRA and a far-left loon who would bankrupt the country.0 -
Welcome back Ave_it ..... right on cue!Ave_it said:Lol lab 1-500 in Cambridge
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The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then switch down the line?0
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It's been PB's busiest day since July 11th 2016bobajobPB said:The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.
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Amazed there's still over £15k available on 2017 at 1.01 on Betfair. Not a bad return for one day's deposit.0
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The one flaw with this is Labour remainers who still voted to trigger A50. That can be used against them by LDs (although I think Zeichner himself voted against A50 too so Cambridge specifically is probably safe)YBarddCwsc said:
Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?Chris_A said:
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.0 -
A Depeche Mode concert AND a snap election within the first 8 days of June 2017!TheScreamingEagles said:
It's been PB's busiest day since July 11th 2016bobajobPB said:The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.
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At every point in the process the PBeratti have read the least Leave into everything. Today is a case in point...Artist said:The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then disappoint these same people down the line?
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My prediction is that P|aid will take the Rhondda.
They took it at the Welsh Assembly elections. The Labour MP is Chris Bryant, who is not well-matched to the constituency. He may even be up against Leanne Wood.
I think the Tories will take 4 seats in the North East, all very similar demographically with low thousand majorities and large Ukip votes (Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Wrexham and Clwyd S). This is a heavy Leave-voting area. If the Tories take one, then they’ll take all four.
I think Labour will also lose Bridgend, Ynys Mon, and perhaps one of the Newport seats.
So, I’d reckon in Wales, PC +2, Tories +5 or 6, Labour - 7 or 8.0 -
Unlike the people, the guardian don't want any election.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/the-guardian-view-on-the-2017-general-election-a-poll-that-britain-does-not-need?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
Fair enough. There don't seem to be many posts, considering.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's been PB's busiest day since July 11th 2016bobajobPB said:The quietness of this forum on the day a snap election was called shows just how dull a foregone conclusion this is.
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In a party whose support is decidedly ambiguous.YBarddCwsc said:
Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?Chris_A said:
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.YBarddCwsc said:
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.Chris_A said:
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.0 -
The Sun and Mail are trying to create their own narrative for their own purposes, they are wrong. May was facing next to no pressure from the Remain side anyway. They all voted for A50 and defend her in public. A couple of golden oldies like Heseltine didn't scare her into an election. The right of the tory party are still far more bastardy even now, and the press themselves have been dragging her towards hard brexit. She can win a majority over Labour even if she explicitly said she wanted a soft brexit (she won't of course), so she is doing this to get the 'brexit-ultras' off her back, not the 'remoaners'.Artist said:The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then disappoint these same people down the line?
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