politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Mike Smithson was right about his theory about the
Comments
-
You need to eat some popcorn to rebalance blood sugar caused by excess excitement.AnneJGP said:
I thought I was enjoying this but now I'm wondering whether I'm just having hysterics.Roger said:Is there anyone who can drag Diane Abbott away from the cameras? Things aren't looking good for Labour as it is and she must be shedding votes every moment she's on. Who cares whether the Tories fiddled their election expenses. It wouldn't have altered anything.
0 -
Yes I did, and to his face.Ishmael_Z said:
Did you castigate Cameron for his yuge reluctance to debate with (in English English) the Milidweeb? What's different?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nonsense. Thatcher would have put up a candidate in Richmond Park, Mrs May is frit, as evidenced by her failure to debate Corbyn.grabcocque said:TSE your May denialism makes you go to some very strange and dark places.
Perhaps you'd feel more at peace if you came to terms with the emergence of May as the greatest Tory PM since Thatcher.
I said he shouldn't decline the opportunity to crush Ed Miliband like Carthage at Zama.0 -
It's not a credible position.rottenborough said:
We may see more of this. A lot more. Vote for me as a decent Labour MP, forget Corbyn, he'll be gone soon etc etcPulpstar said:
:Let's take Woodcock's reasoning backwards here :kle4 said:
How, exactly, does such a person stand under the banner of a leader they have so little faith in? I know Corbyn disliked Blair, but was he ever so bold in criticism? Has to be indy, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
Through some miracle or other Labour get 270 seats, enough for a coalition or minority gov't with the SNP (They are one vote short).
Farron says he can't countenance Corbyn as PM and will support for Hammond (May has resigned perhaps) to have the support of the house. But they are one vote short - the support of the Commons depends on Woodcock after taking all votes in the round into account - does he HONESTLY vote against the Labour Queens speech or abstain or some such if his is the neccesary vote ?
His position is utterly ludicrous I'm afraid if he decides to run as a Labour & Coop candidate.0 -
One is a devious, lying bitch, what about the other ?Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm struggling, and failing, to imagine any two leading politicians more different than Clinton and May, (leaving aside Trump who's different from everyone, of course).Jonathan said:
May has a touch of Clinton about her and the poll leads to boot.RobD said:
A bit like the FBI and Clinton's emails?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Calum, fewer than half, I'd guess (I think it was around 12 constituencies that were being looked at).
Mr. Eagles, maybe.
But May can lay the blame at Cameron's door. And that doesn't alter the fact it's her or Corbyn.
Hard to say how it'll play. Charges during the election campaign would be... interesting.0 -
Surely a Jezza Tablet of Stone will cause the electorate to sweep him to a landslide victory as it did for Ed Mili .....
Ooppps ....0 -
I am. It is going to be something to behold.nunu said:Imagine a whole elction campaign like this.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/8544019933890928650 -
His position is constitutionally ludicrous though.rottenborough said:
We may see more of this. A lot more. Vote for me as a decent Labour MP, forget Corbyn, he'll be gone soon etc etcPulpstar said:
:Let's take Woodcock's reasoning backwards here :kle4 said:
How, exactly, does such a person stand under the banner of a leader they have so little faith in? I know Corbyn disliked Blair, but was he ever so bold in criticism? Has to be indy, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
Through some miracle or other Labour get 270 seats, enough for a coalition or minority gov't with the SNP (They are one vote short).
Farron says he can't countenance Corbyn as PM and will support for Hammond (May has resigned perhaps) to have the support of the house. But they are one vote short - the support of the Commons depends on Woodcock after taking all votes in the round into account - does he HONESTLY vote against the Labour Queens speech or abstain or some such if his is the neccesary vote ?
His position is utterly ludicrous I'm afraid if he decides to run as a Labour & Coop candidate.0 -
Serious question: anyone know anything about the LD operation in Islington North? I'm willing to help out to unseat Corbyn, if they can get a serious campaign going.0
-
What's the form with Corbyn departing?
Does he have a stay of execution as leader for a period after the election whilst they organise the deckchairs? If so, when does he officially leave?
I only ask because I've been on a July-Sept 2017 departure for some time. June 8th might be a little premature.0 -
Imagine if his hero, Lenin, had had the same problem coming into the Finlandia station.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854402190567514112
Poor Old Jezza, what a shame.0 -
While you came up with a highly partisan response from a cybernat, anyway it will be the voters who decidemalcolmg said:
LOL only a Tory could come out with that bollox. They are lying cheating toerags and should be jailed , banana republic does not describe it.HYUFD said:
I doubt voters will care much beyond the seats concerned and even there I doubt it makes much difference, in US elections they spend far more and most of all it happened when Cameron was Tory leader not Maysurbiton said:
£200,000 more.HYUFD said:The Tories spent a bit more than they should have in Cameron's 2015 election campaign in a few seats, I doubt it affects this election campaign that much beyond a few seats needing new candidates and agents
0 -
Respect.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes I did, and to his face.Ishmael_Z said:
Did you castigate Cameron for his yuge reluctance to debate with (in English English) the Milidweeb? What's different?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nonsense. Thatcher would have put up a candidate in Richmond Park, Mrs May is frit, as evidenced by her failure to debate Corbyn.grabcocque said:TSE your May denialism makes you go to some very strange and dark places.
Perhaps you'd feel more at peace if you came to terms with the emergence of May as the greatest Tory PM since Thatcher.
I said he shouldn't decline the opportunity to crush Ed Miliband like Carthage at Zama.0 -
Bad for exports - the only thing that kept us going after June 23rd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the pound - rocketed todaysurbiton said:FTSE drops 180 points. You would have expected big business to support the Tories.
0 -
Sad reflection on our legal system:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-woman-who-begged-for-50p-was-sentenced-to-six-months-in?utm_term=.yj41yGNLX#.saMKd4Jn30 -
The LibDems in Islington have a good, experienced team. They took a knock after losing everything in the last London locals but have gained a lot of new members (being Remania Central) and will be raring to get back at Labour in the GE. I expect the southern constituency will be their primary target however. And there'll clearly be pressure to privatise key seats like Hornsey and Bermondsey; deciding how many seats to target is going to be a tough call for the party this time!ThomasNashe said:Serious question: anyone know anything about the LD operation in Islington North? I'm willing to help out to unseat Corbyn, if they can get a serious campaign going.
0 -
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
0 -
And that might not even be the case, in some cases it might amount to not accounting for national expenditure correctly in the local campaign, despite them not spending up to the limit.kle4 said:
They didn't fiddle the votes, they spent more than they were supposed to (allegedly) - a crime which deserves punishment, but not exactly stuffing ballot boxes.murali_s said:So the Tories are a bunch of cheating, lying scumbags! We need independent election monitors in this country or it will truly become a banana republic one party state.
I know for a fact that one constabulary has submitted to the CPS but the battlebus made only one trip to that constituency and there was no overnight stays.0 -
How is the current pound bad for exports even with its rise todaysurbiton said:
Bad for exports - the only thing that kept us going after June 23rd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the pound - rocketed todaysurbiton said:FTSE drops 180 points. You would have expected big business to support the Tories.
0 -
Would your views have been the same if it was the Labour Party who were the culprits ?notme said:
And that might not even be the case, in some cases it might amount to not accounting for national expenditure correctly in the local campaign, despite them not spending up to the limit.kle4 said:
They didn't fiddle the votes, they spent more than they were supposed to (allegedly) - a crime which deserves punishment, but not exactly stuffing ballot boxes.murali_s said:So the Tories are a bunch of cheating, lying scumbags! We need independent election monitors in this country or it will truly become a banana republic one party state.
I know for a fact that one constabulary has submitted to the CPS but the battlebus made only one trip to that constituency and there was no overnight stays.0 -
Personally I oppose election campaign limits but if the rules at the time of the 2015 campaign were broken then it is up the CPS to bring chargeskle4 said:
If they broke the rules they should be punished, otherwise why bother having the damn things? If the rules are stupid they should changed, not ignored. And the issues were too systemic to have been accidental everywhere, if the charges are true, it would have been intentional.HYUFD said:
I doubt voters will care much beyond the seats concerned and even there I doubt it makes much difference, in US elections they spend far moresurbiton said:
£200,000 more.HYUFD said:The Tories spent a bit more than they should have in Cameron's 2015 election campaign in a few seats, I doubt it affects this election campaign that much beyond a few seats needing new candidates and agents
0 -
If Leicester can proceed further in the Champion's League, I'm putting money on Labour retaining their seat numbers.0
-
A pressing task arising from the expenses investigation is for the electoral commission to issue something clarifying what rules it wants to apply in relation to the various issues investigated. So far I have seen nothing. Since all parties will now be urgently planning out their May/June campaigns, I would expect to see some updated guidance sharpish?0
-
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.0 -
For sure , it will be Tories in England and SNP by wide margin in Scotland.HYUFD said:
While you came up with a highly partisan response from a cybernat, anyway it will be the voters who decidemalcolmg said:
LOL only a Tory could come out with that bollox. They are lying cheating toerags and should be jailed , banana republic does not describe it.HYUFD said:
I doubt voters will care much beyond the seats concerned and even there I doubt it makes much difference, in US elections they spend far more and most of all it happened when Cameron was Tory leader not Maysurbiton said:
£200,000 more.HYUFD said:The Tories spent a bit more than they should have in Cameron's 2015 election campaign in a few seats, I doubt it affects this election campaign that much beyond a few seats needing new candidates and agents
0 -
-
no it isnt, it took me to the fourth paragraph to realise the headline had little to do with the story. She was sentenced for breaking a court injunction, not begging.calum said:Sad reflection on our legal system:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-woman-who-begged-for-50p-was-sentenced-to-six-months-in?utm_term=.yj41yGNLX#.saMKd4Jn30 -
It isn't. But Surbiton long ago gave up any pretence of reason I am afraid. He is desperately clinging to anything that he believes might support his delusions that Brexit is a disaster. There really is no reasoning with him.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How is the current pound bad for exports even with its rise todaysurbiton said:
Bad for exports - the only thing that kept us going after June 23rd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the pound - rocketed todaysurbiton said:FTSE drops 180 points. You would have expected big business to support the Tories.
0 -
Thanks. Frankly not really bothered whether Thornberry survives or not. But I could see Corbyn still hanging on as leader even after Lab are reduced to a rump. The only way to prevent that would be him losing his seat as well.IanB2 said:
The LibDems in Islington have a good, experienced team. They took a knock after losing everything in the last London locals but have gained a lot of new members (being Remania Central) and will be raring to get back at Labour in the GE. I expect the southern constituency will be their primary target however.ThomasNashe said:Serious question: anyone know anything about the LD operation in Islington North? I'm willing to help out to unseat Corbyn, if they can get a serious campaign going.
0 -
Question is, will we see the same sort of thing from Tory remainers?rottenborough said:
We may see more of this. A lot more. Vote for me as a decent Labour MP, forget Corbyn, he'll be gone soon etc etcPulpstar said:
:Let's take Woodcock's reasoning backwards here :kle4 said:
How, exactly, does such a person stand under the banner of a leader they have so little faith in? I know Corbyn disliked Blair, but was he ever so bold in criticism? Has to be indy, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
Through some miracle or other Labour get 270 seats, enough for a coalition or minority gov't with the SNP (They are one vote short).
Farron says he can't countenance Corbyn as PM and will support for Hammond (May has resigned perhaps) to have the support of the house. But they are one vote short - the support of the Commons depends on Woodcock after taking all votes in the round into account - does he HONESTLY vote against the Labour Queens speech or abstain or some such if his is the neccesary vote ?
His position is utterly ludicrous I'm afraid if he decides to run as a Labour & Coop candidate.0 -
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.0 -
Poor Kezia. John Snow is asking her impossible questions to which the only answer is she needs Corbyn to be run over by a bus. Of course she knows he's hopeless and unelectable but what can she say?0
-
Another Cameron/Osborne mess....0
-
Is Nick Timothy in the clear?CarlottaVance said:Another Cameron/Osborne mess....
0 -
On topic, I know a few people on the previous thread were attacking Crick and the CPS over this but if the law was broken then those who broke it should answer in court. Lots of people were shouting about a 'banana republic' postal voting system back in 2005. If true, then this is just as bad if not worse.0
-
Nevertheless since the referendum there has been a very strong inverse correlation between the £/$ and the FTSE, whether you look at time intervals of hours, days or weeks.Richard_Tyndall said:
It isn't. But Surbiton long ago gave up any pretence of reason I am afraid. He is desperately clinging to anything that he believes might support his delusions that Brexit is a disaster. There really is no reasoning with him.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How is the current pound bad for exports even with its rise todaysurbiton said:
Bad for exports - the only thing that kept us going after June 23rd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Look at the pound - rocketed todaysurbiton said:FTSE drops 180 points. You would have expected big business to support the Tories.
0 -
SeanT, you are many things, but a wise currency analyst you are most certainly not. Mr surbiton also has no claims. I confess that I too don't, but I do know enough to spot you two.SeanT said:
Coz the £ rose, you dork.surbiton said:FTSE drops 180 points. You would have expected big business to support the Tories.
0 -
it depends what they did. If Mens Rea can be shown by the participants then they should be prosecuted, whatever the party. I'm just saying of the only example i know a few of the facts for, and in that case the error was administrative and certainly not had any impact on the election result. If this still passed the standard necessary for files to be sent to the CPS i suspect then with the exception of maybe one or two constituencies the rest is hot air.surbiton said:
Would your views have been the same if it was the Labour Party who were the culprits ?notme said:
And that might not even be the case, in some cases it might amount to not accounting for national expenditure correctly in the local campaign, despite them not spending up to the limit.kle4 said:
They didn't fiddle the votes, they spent more than they were supposed to (allegedly) - a crime which deserves punishment, but not exactly stuffing ballot boxes.murali_s said:So the Tories are a bunch of cheating, lying scumbags! We need independent election monitors in this country or it will truly become a banana republic one party state.
I know for a fact that one constabulary has submitted to the CPS but the battlebus made only one trip to that constituency and there was no overnight stays.0 -
It is a Westminster election so has no real impact on the independence debate and indeed there is a possibility will actually lose seatsmalcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.
0 -
Evening Malc - I do not think Theresa May intends to move anywhere other than the centre ground vacated by Corbyn and a sensible EFTA like Brexitmalcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.0 -
Would any shifts in NI be expected based on the result of the Assembly elections?0
-
Spot on. And Crick has demonstrated real - and only too rare - tenacity. We need more journalists like him.Richard_Tyndall said:On topic, I know a few people on the previous thread were attacking Crick and the CPS over this but if the law was broken then those who broke it should answer in court. Lots of people were shouting about a 'banana republic' postal voting system back in 2005. If true, then this is just as bad if not worse.
0 -
Has he been charged?williamglenn said:
Is Nick Timothy in the clear?CarlottaVance said:Another Cameron/Osborne mess....
0 -
Hmm Shinners might do well..williamglenn said:Would any shifts in NI be expected based on the result of the Assembly elections?
0 -
Evening Big_G, you will be happy man today.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Evening Malc - I do not think Theresa May intends to move anywhere other than the centre ground vacated by Corbyn and a sensible EFTA like Brexitmalcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.
PS: Would not surprise me to hear that a presidential palace is being planned.0 -
Fermanangh and South Tyrone?williamglenn said:Would any shifts in NI be expected based on the result of the Assembly elections?
0 -
Thanks Mrs May, I needed to transfer some money this Friday. Just did it now instead and got a nice little bonus.0
-
1h
Ellie Price @EllieJPrice
Lots of desk-banging, clapping and cheering at the 1922 committee meeting addressed by Theresa May. Happy, if somewhat surprised, campers.0 -
Once again the world's of professional wrestling and politics cross over
https://twitter.com/zacksabrejr/status/8543312830691860480 -
dear god.notme said:
no it isnt, it took me to the fourth paragraph to realise the headline had little to do with the story. She was sentenced for breaking a court injunction, not begging.calum said:Sad reflection on our legal system:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-woman-who-begged-for-50p-was-sentenced-to-six-months-in?utm_term=.yj41yGNLX#.saMKd4Jn3
And the PM calls herself a Christian.0 -
What happened to TGOHF, I have yet to hear from him re whether he would back up his ridiculous mince about SNP losing more than 10 setas. I see he like most frothers is all mouth and no trousers, no backbone to back up his garbage and bet on it.0
-
Fine, but the CPS should prosecute, or not. It should not make statements, nor hold press conferences, about its intentions or decisions; that merely creates prejudice and achieves nothing at all except to get the DPP on prime time telly.Richard_Tyndall said:On topic, I know a few people on the previous thread were attacking Crick and the CPS over this but if the law was broken then those who broke it should answer in court. Lots of people were shouting about a 'banana republic' postal voting system back in 2005. If true, then this is just as bad if not worse.
0 -
He probably hadn't priced in a 2017 electionmalcolmg said:What happened to TGOHF, I have yet to hear from him re whether he would back up his ridiculous mince about SNP losing more than 10 setas. I see he like most frothers is all mouth and no trousers, no backbone to back up his garbage and bet on it.
0 -
Will Arron Banks keep his deposit?0
-
In some ways as I believe she needs a mandate but talk of a landslide is premature and at present I expect a majority of between 60 and 80. I also think the success or otherwise of indy2 will largely depend on TM achieving a good trading dealmalcolmg said:
Evening Big_G, you will be happy man today.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Evening Malc - I do not think Theresa May intends to move anywhere other than the centre ground vacated by Corbyn and a sensible EFTA like Brexitmalcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.0 -
But, the CPS has not said that the 30 individuals are all Tories.
At least one saintly LibDem has been involved in dodgy electoral spending claims:
https://tinyurl.com/hjrwa5p
“ The party has been fined the maximum levy of £20,000 for the breaches, while the case against the party’s top campaign official has been referred to the police. The commission found that 307 payments totalling £184,676 were missing from the party’s spending return.”
0 -
The broadcasters wish to invite party leaders to a debate. One party leader seeks to invalidate the debates.justin124 said:
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
Ergo :
If I invite some LibDems to view the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle and all but Mark Senior agree that such an educational and gastronomic tour de force is preferable to a lecture on the merits of bar charts, then with regret Mark doesn't get a veto.0 -
Birmingham Yardley was over 60% Leave.rcs1000 said:
It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR0 -
But if Mark is the main event for the crowds, then surprise surprise the people putting on the show might be a little less excited about it.JackW said:
The broadcasters wish to invite party leaders to a debate. One party leader seeks to invalidate the debates.justin124 said:
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
Ergo :
If I invite some LibDems to view the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle and all but Mark Senior agree that such an educational and gastronomic tour de force is preferable to a lecture on the merits of bar charts, then with regret Mark doesn't get a veto.
I hate the debatification of British politics. People should be encouraged to do more than sit on the sofa and make a snap decision.0 -
Seems harsh, but given buzzfeeds form she'll probably turn out to be a hybrid of Myra Hindley & Rose WestPong said:
dear god.notme said:
no it isnt, it took me to the fourth paragraph to realise the headline had little to do with the story. She was sentenced for breaking a court injunction, not begging.calum said:Sad reflection on our legal system:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-woman-who-begged-for-50p-was-sentenced-to-six-months-in?utm_term=.yj41yGNLX#.saMKd4Jn3
And the PM calls herself a Christian.0 -
David Miliband in to 8/1 to be next leader! Absolutely stonking mad.0
-
That's potentially a really important point. If the law is unclear as to what is national or local spending (as some on here have suggested in the past), then guidance is vital.IanB2 said:A pressing task arising from the expenses investigation is for the electoral commission to issue something clarifying what rules it wants to apply in relation to the various issues investigated. So far I have seen nothing. Since all parties will now be urgently planning out their May/June campaigns, I would expect to see some updated guidance sharpish?
0 -
Keep it there till brexit and the pound plummetsSeanT said:
Grrr. I'm about to get wheelbarrows of foreign cash poured over me, in the next couple of weeks or so, and this rise in the £ is easily costing me four figures.MaxPB said:Thanks Mrs May, I needed to transfer some money this Friday. Just did it now instead and got a nice little bonus.
I do not expect sympathy.0 -
If they pitch it right, the soft Brexit and vote on the deal line appeals to a lot of soft leave voters, also. Those huge local swings in places like Sunderland, Rotherham and Oldham didn't come just from Remain voters.another_richard said:
Birmingham Yardley was over 60% Leave.rcs1000 said:
It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR
Besides, in terms of the population likely to participate in the 2017 GE, you can probably knock off 5% from the leave vote in most seats and shift it across to the Remain vote, to adjust for the bunch of 2016 Leave voters who haven't before and probably won't again participate in voting for actual politicians.0 -
Bang on 60% according to Hanretty's spreadsheet.another_richard said:
Birmingham Yardley was over 60% Leave.rcs1000 said:
It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR
That said I think it could well be a Lib Dem gain.0 -
To save me reading thousands of comments could someone give a summary of any interesting developments in the last eight hours please.
0 -
Yes, I misread a Birmingham Post article. Embarrassingly.another_richard said:
Birmingham Yardley was over 60% Leave.rcs1000 said:
It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR0 -
I earn in CHF so overall stronger Sterling isn't great for when I want to repatriate the money, but that's not going to be for a while and I'd resigned myself to getting a rate of about 1.40 at that time anyway. This is a nice bonus because I'm about to shift 6 figures from my savings in the UK to Switzerland so I can pay for my house to be refurbished.SeanT said:
Grrr. I'm about to get wheelbarrows of foreign cash poured over me, in the next couple of weeks or so, and this rise in the £ is easily costing me four figures.MaxPB said:Thanks Mrs May, I needed to transfer some money this Friday. Just did it now instead and got a nice little bonus.
I do not expect sympathy.0 -
I think he can afford to lose it.rcs1000 said:Will Arron Banks keep his deposit?
The big question is does Banks standing making it less or more likely that Carswell is re-elected.
0 -
It's more than they'd get without the debates - base it off a leaflet through the door and stupid PEBs?Mortimer said:
But if Mark is the main event for the crowds, then surprise surprise the people putting on the show might be a little less excited about it.JackW said:
The broadcasters wish to invite party leaders to a debate. One party leader seeks to invalidate the debates.justin124 said:
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
Ergo :
If I invite some LibDems to view the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle and all but Mark Senior agree that such an educational and gastronomic tour de force is preferable to a lecture on the merits of bar charts, then with regret Mark doesn't get a veto.
I hate the debatification of British politics. People should be encouraged to do more than sit on the sofa and make a snap decision.0 -
From the little I've read about executions in the middle ages and beyond, it didn't particularly matter who was being executed (at least to the viewers): it was good entertainment for the whole family.Mortimer said:
But if Mark is the main event for the crowds, then surprise surprise the people putting on the show might be a little less excited about it.JackW said:
The broadcasters wish to invite party leaders to a debate. One party leader seeks to invalidate the debates.justin124 said:
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
Ergo :
If I invite some LibDems to view the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle and all but Mark Senior agree that such an educational and gastronomic tour de force is preferable to a lecture on the merits of bar charts, then with regret Mark doesn't get a veto.
(Snip)0 -
Suggestion that all Lab MPs would have to be confirmed (or not) as candidates earlier - surely that can't be right?!0
-
Sky News reporting that the Prime Minister telephoned Her Majesty last night on her intentions.
Well I suppose it's better than a text message.0 -
https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/854304758818938882another_richard said:To save me reading thousands of comments could someone give a summary of any interesting developments in the last eight hours please.
0 -
One curious point re election expenses is that if Gorton is postponed , Labour and the Lib Dems will already have exceeded the GE expenses for that constituency . The allowed expenses for a by election are much higher than a GE .
I presume the EC will make a special dispensation to allow for thi quirk .0 -
I think we can all agree the ambiguity needs urgent clarification but could that not also have the effect of making any potential charges unsafe as it is an admission of the ambiguityJosiasJessop said:
That's potentially a really important point. If the law is unclear as to what is national or local spending (as some on here have suggested in the past), then guidance is vital.IanB2 said:A pressing task arising from the expenses investigation is for the electoral commission to issue something clarifying what rules it wants to apply in relation to the various issues investigated. So far I have seen nothing. Since all parties will now be urgently planning out their May/June campaigns, I would expect to see some updated guidance sharpish?
0 -
Somebody joked earlier he would probably manage to miss even voting for himself....Then get stuck on a rammed pack train again...dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854402190567514112
Poor Old Jezza, what a shame.0 -
Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.malcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.
Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)0 -
The Dow is down 0.6% and the FTSE 2.5%, suggesting most of the Uk fall was domestic. £/$ is up 2.3%, so there's your explanation. I am up about £1200 on the day so very happy with Mrs May.murali_s said:0 -
The debates are in addition to rather than a replacement for the whole campaign.Mortimer said:
But if Mark is the main event for the crowds, then surprise surprise the people putting on the show might be a little less excited about it.JackW said:
The broadcasters wish to invite party leaders to a debate. One party leader seeks to invalidate the debates.justin124 said:
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
Ergo :
If I invite some LibDems to view the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle and all but Mark Senior agree that such an educational and gastronomic tour de force is preferable to a lecture on the merits of bar charts, then with regret Mark doesn't get a veto.
I hate the debatification of British politics. People should be encouraged to do more than sit on the sofa and make a snap decision.0 -
Isn't a "landslide" 80 or above?Big_G_NorthWales said:
In some ways as I believe she needs a mandate but talk of a landslide is premature and at present I expect a majority of between 60 and 80. I also think the success or otherwise of indy2 will largely depend on TM achieving a good trading dealmalcolmg said:
Evening Big_G, you will be happy man today.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Evening Malc - I do not think Theresa May intends to move anywhere other than the centre ground vacated by Corbyn and a sensible EFTA like Brexitmalcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.0 -
Possibly, but I think Hemming would have maxed out the tactical and personal votes in 2015.Pulpstar said:
Bang on 60% according to Hanretty's spreadsheet.another_richard said:
Birmingham Yardley was over 60% Leave.rcs1000 said:
It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR
That said I think it could well be a Lib Dem gain.
He'll need to get a fair lump straight from Labour.0 -
That would be sensible, although doesn't the spending limit only cover the election period, so it wouldn't matter anyway?MarkSenior said:One curious point re election expenses is that if Gorton is postponed , Labour and the Lib Dems will already have exceeded the GE expenses for that constituency . The allowed expenses for a by election are much higher than a GE .
I presume the EC will make a special dispensation to allow for thi quirk .0 -
No, since the short campaign expenses period hasn't started yet, so no-one has officially spent anything as far as GE2017 is concerned. The timing rules for by elections are different.MarkSenior said:One curious point re election expenses is that if Gorton is postponed , Labour and the Lib Dems will already have exceeded the GE expenses for that constituency . The allowed expenses for a by election are much higher than a GE .
I presume the EC will make a special dispensation to allow for thi quirk .0 -
Leicester just gone 1 down - 0 - 2 Atletico0
-
It's like Game of Thrones and similar tales of quasi-medieval derring do; the guy with the smaller army challenges his opponent to settle things by single combat cos it's his best shot at victory, and the other guy naturally refuses cos what's in it for him, and the first guy calls the other guy a coward. It is pure convention. Note that it is also very capable of biting the challenger fatally in the arse (Miliband 2015) and that even the greatest of actor-politicians literally debated mano a mano with a chair, and lost (Eastwood 2012).JackW said:
The broadcasters wish to invite party leaders to a debate. One party leader seeks to invalidate the debates.justin124 said:
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
Ergo :
If I invite some LibDems to view the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle and all but Mark Senior agree that such an educational and gastronomic tour de force is preferable to a lecture on the merits of bar charts, then with regret Mark doesn't get a veto.0 -
An interesting article in the Guardian based on the premise that May has called the election because she thinks she needs to show the EU that Brexit means Brexit in order to avoid being given a bad deal. If true I think she badly misunderstands why a 'good deal' in her terms isn't on offer, which has nothing do to with persuasion.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/mays-real-reason-for-calling-election-to-show-eu-that-brexit-really-means-brexit0 -
The very upper end of my initial 60-80 prediction.GIN1138 said:
Isn't a "landslide" 80 or above?Big_G_NorthWales said:
In some ways as I believe she needs a mandate but talk of a landslide is premature and at present I expect a majority of between 60 and 80. I also think the success or otherwise of indy2 will largely depend on TM achieving a good trading dealmalcolmg said:
Evening Big_G, you will be happy man today.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Evening Malc - I do not think Theresa May intends to move anywhere other than the centre ground vacated by Corbyn and a sensible EFTA like Brexitmalcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.0 -
SeanT said:
Grrr. I'm about to get wheelbarrows of foreign cash poured over me, in the next couple of weeks or so, and this rise in the £ is easily costing me four figures.MaxPB said:Thanks Mrs May, I needed to transfer some money this Friday. Just did it now instead and got a nice little bonus.
I do not expect sympathy.
You don't have to take it in GBP today. You can leave it in foreign currency for now surely?
It's easy to have US$ and Euro accounts with your bank.
0 -
How many sleeps until June 8?0
-
Yet another example of the death of "discretion" in the justice system.calum said:Sad reflection on our legal system:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-woman-who-begged-for-50p-was-sentenced-to-six-months-in?utm_term=.yj41yGNLX#.saMKd4Jn3
Ironic that it was removed in the name of fairness, really.0 -
They have already exceeded the long campaign GE expenses limitsIanB2 said:
No, since the short campaign expenses period hasn't started yet, so no-one has officially spent anything as far as GE2017 is concerned. The timing rules for by elections are different.MarkSenior said:One curious point re election expenses is that if Gorton is postponed , Labour and the Lib Dems will already have exceeded the GE expenses for that constituency . The allowed expenses for a by election are much higher than a GE .
I presume the EC will make a special dispensation to allow for thi quirk .0 -
I don't, as in some ways the harder the Brexit the even harder it will be for an independent Scotland to trade with rUK, though it does now look like May is aiming for some kind of transition deal anyway which Sturgeon will find hard to argue againstBig_G_NorthWales said:
In some ways as I believe she needs a mandate but talk of a landslide is premature and at present I expect a majority of between 60 and 80. I also think the success or otherwise of indy2 will largely depend on TM achieving a good trading dealmalcolmg said:
Evening Big_G, you will be happy man today.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Evening Malc - I do not think Theresa May intends to move anywhere other than the centre ground vacated by Corbyn and a sensible EFTA like Brexitmalcolmg said:
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure.Omnium said:
(The last line is malcolmg's.)malcolmg said:FPT
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.0 -
You should manage 5 or 6.RobD said:How many sleeps until June 8?
0 -
CAESARIshmael_Z said:
It's like Game of Thrones and similar tales of quasi-medieval derring do; the guy with the smaller army challenges his opponent to settle things by single combat cos it's his best shot at victory, and the other guy naturally refuses cos what's in it for him, and the first guy calls the other guy a coward. It is pure convention. Note that it is also very capable of biting the challenger fatally in the arse (Miliband 2015) and that even the greatest of actor-politicians literally debated mano a mano with a chair, and lost (Eastwood 2012).JackW said:
The broadcasters wish to invite party leaders to a debate. One party leader seeks to invalidate the debates.justin124 said:
At one level I agree with that, but then I recall that the broadcasters failed to do this in the past when election debates were being mooted.As far back as 1966 the leaders failed to agree the terms of any debates, and this continued throughout the elections dominated by Thatcher, Major and Blair.There was an acceptance that the parties had the option of imposing a veto when it suited their interests. On what basis can the broadcasters seek now to impose their wishes on an unwilling part leader?JackW said:It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
Ergo :
If I invite some LibDems to view the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle and all but Mark Senior agree that such an educational and gastronomic tour de force is preferable to a lecture on the merits of bar charts, then with regret Mark doesn't get a veto.
He calls me “boy” and chides as he had power
To beat me out of Egypt. My messenger
He hath whipped with rods, dares me to personal combat,
Caesar to Antony. Let the old ruffian know
I have many other ways to die, meantime
Laugh at his challenge.
Antony & Cleopatra: Act iv Scene i0