politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackabl

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'

Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.

It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.

They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

So government by poll, eh? What happens if polls start to indicate that Brits do not want to leave the EU?

We had a referendum where Scots backed the Union and s referendum where Britains voted to leave the EU. If Labour or the LDs or Labour fight and win an election on a platform of rejoicing the EU or EEA then so be it but we must respect the referendum result to leave first and see the terms May agreed for our departure

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

May is increasing the chance of breaking the union. The only question is whether it is deliberate or not.

Probably incompetence rather than malice.. Maybe we'll get another u turn next week.

I'm expecting one. The question will be how the Prime Minister manages to extricate herself with the minimum embarrassment.

FWIW I think the SNP have learned the lessons from 2014's defeat - I fear the "Establishment" learnt none from it's victory - leading in part to it's June 2016 defeat.

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

Mr. Bojabob, so, because your side lost a vote you no longer love a country that previously you did?

That's rather sad. Sadder still that you feel as much (or more) loyalty to foreigners than your own people.

Mr. Nabavi, indeed, and I wish those who keep raising stupid little regional assemblies in England would learn that lesson and not make an even worse error of judgement.

Bojabob said:

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

The Scots will still be part of Britain and of these great islands of nations. They are our friends, allies and loved neighbours and that will not change. It is time for them to strike out into the world. I doubt many more 10% of Irish people would want to return to the union. Yet Ireland is our great friend and neighbour.

We are in the process of dumping all over the Irish as well, of course!

Theuniondivvie said:

Well, at least nobody is talking about Phil Hammond.

Who, didn't he used to be Chancellor of the Exchequer?

Pong said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.

Indeed.

It's the English right who have walked away from the union.

Yes, and in doing so they may ultimately be creating an inevitability around losing other positions of strength e.g. permanent seat on the UN security council.

JackW said:

The Scots were told the Union would mean remaining in the EU. Hhmmmn.

Not quite as I recall Jack. What they were told was that leaving the Union meant leaving the EU. Which was true. And incidentally is still true, although it does now hold out the remote prospect of rejoining it.

However, Sturgeon's real aim given her prevarication and incoherence on policy appears to have been to whip up some anti-English sentiment ahead of the local elections. If it was, mission accomplished.

If it were me, I would have called her bluff and held the referendum on the same day, blaming Sturgeon's xenophobia for it. That would have destroyed Scottish independence and the SNP itself in one fell swoop if polling is to be believed. But May is not by nature aggressive or given to bold moves.

I've just witnessed Scottish students on Sky News playing effing Quidditch. That's it. End the Union NOW!

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

The only mystery to me is why SLab don't see this. It is clearly their way forward.

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

They still don't want out according to most polling despite the posts of left-wing Europhiles like you suggesting Yes is headed for a landslide

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

usual english creeping

it's quite repellent

odd that you dont blame the welsh

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

They still don't want out according to most polling despite the posts of left-wing Europhiles like you suggesting Yes is headed for a landslide

Nope, I don't think it will be a landslide. Scotland is pretty much split down the middle. And, yes, I am a Europhile. I like Europe. I live in it.

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

May is increasing the chance of breaking the union. The only question is whether it is deliberate or not.

Probably incompetence rather than malice.. Maybe we'll get another u turn next week.

I'm expecting one. The question will be how the Prime Minister manages to extricate herself with the minimum embarrassment.

I offer a £50 bet TMay does not U-turn, and agree to a Scots vote pre-Brexit.

No bet, not least because the terms of the U-turn may leave it unclear which side of Brexit the Scottish vote takes place, or whether it takes place on Brexit day (henceforth to be known as B-day).

Can't see any way May will allow the Sots a referendum before the next UK GE. If they do and it leads to break up of the Union, then the Tories will own that break-up and are likely to be punished for it in a subsequent GE.

If May is forced into agreeing a referendum before May 2020, then expect her to engineer a GE before the referendum date.

Cyan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

Greens crapping on their own voters by deciding after they're elected that they're going to kowtow to another party can't conjure a mandate for that other party into existence.

Sturgeon could, with support from her Green pals, call a general election. The only reason she doesn't is she knows she'd get an almighty kick up the butt.

People are really bad at reading the Green's manifesto.

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

You should have thought on that when Labour was:

1) Encouraging anti-English bigotry for electoral benefit in Scotland and Wales

2) Creating Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish parliaments without a corresponding English parliament

3) Allowing unlimited and unprepared for immigration into deprived areas whilst shouting "British Jobs For British Workers"

Cookie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.

Isn't it both?

It survived Scottish nationalism. It will not survive the English nationalism.

Oh, don't be daft. It's not English nationalism tearing the UK apart. It's English apathy in the face of Scottish nationalism. The English aren't tearing the union apart, they just no longer care if the Scots do.
In the words of the Wedding Present:
"Oh well that's fine,
I don't care,
Any more,
Nobody's twisting your arm,
Here's the key,
There's the door."

Maybe have a word with your excitable, non apathetic fellow countrymen on here?

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

The only mystery to me is why SLab don't see this. It is clearly their way forward.

SLab are Unionists

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

You should have thought on that when Labour was:

1) Encouraging anti-English bigotry for electoral benefit in Scotland and Wales

2) Creating Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish parliaments without a corresponding English parliament

3) Allowing unlimited and unprepared for immigration into deprived areas whilst shouting "British Jobs For British Workers"

I did.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no l%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

They still don't want out according to most polling despite the posts of left-wing Europhiles like you suggesting Yes is headed for a landslide

Nope, I don't think it will be a landslide. Scotland is pretty much split down the middle. And, yes, I am a Europhile. I like Europe. I live in it.

How do you think TMay should have responded to Sturgeon's demand, other than what she has done? No credible British prime minister could accept twin negotiations on Brexit and Joxit, when the mere existence of the latter guarantees failure of the former.

Short of saying "Of course Nicola, we'll let you have another referendum whoever you like", the PM might as well have used the form of words in Arkell vs Pressdram for all the difference it would have made to the Nats' reaction.

MarqueeMark said:

Jack, how do you make ANY practical effort to bring the Scots on board? They voted for the other side of a binary choice.

There is one thing we can take from Sturgeon's actions. A Miliband Govt. propped up by the SNP would have been every bit in the pocket of the Scots as the election poster suggested.

Of course it was a binary choice but so it would appear was the binary choice to pull in the devolved governments or not. May chose not to.

On the day May became PM I reiterated that she should invoke A50 immediately and announce our exit date as 31st December 2018. The UK required clarity. Further she should have told Sturgeon that she accepted the situation had decisively changed and recognized the SNP mandate for another referendum that could take place in the Spring of 2018.

Instead we have had dither and a complete clusterf*ck.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no l%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

They still don't want out according to most polling despite the posts of left-wing Europhiles like you suggesting Yes is headed for a landslide

Nope, I don't think it will be a landslide. Scotland is pretty much split down the middle. And, yes, I am a Europhile. I like Europe. I live in it.

How do you think TMay should have responded to Sturgeon's demand, other than what she has done? No credible British prime minister could accept twin negotiations on Brexit and Joxit, when the mere existence of the latter guarantees failure of the former.

She could have preempted it months ago and come up with a formulation for allowing the people - all of them - to have a say on the final Brexit deal.

Jonathan said:

For Britain to become Scandinavia is utter defeat.

eh? I thought lefties saw Scandinavia as a model.

MarqueeMark said:

Jack, how do you make ANY practical effort to bring the Scots on board? They voted for the other side of a binary choice.

45% did. The Union needs to be reinvigorated and imaginatively, is the answer. Then the non-independence side of the binary choice won't be the status quo.

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no l%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

They still don't want out according to most polling despite the posts of left-wing Europhiles like you suggesting Yes is headed for a landslide

Nope, I don't think it will be a landslide. Scotland is pretty much split down the middle. And, yes, I am a Europhile. I like Europe. I live in it.

How do you think TMay should have responded to Sturgeon's demand, other than what she has done? No credible British prime minister could accept twin negotiations on Brexit and Joxit, when the mere existence of the latter guarantees failure of the former.

She could have preempted it months ago and come up with a formulation for allowing the people - all of them - to have a say on the final Brexit deal.

Bingo.

SouthamObserver said:

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

Even if you do manage to get rid of Corbyn, your party is still completely fucked because it's full of people who hate the idea of Englishness.

Maybe. I am intrigued by the idea of Englishness, though. I am very comfortable with my idea of what it is. But I am not sure it is the same idea of it that you might have. What I dislike is people claiming ownership of it. That's why I have always disliked nationalism, including the SNP variety.

And your bloody party gave the Scots devolution and fed the beast. What was it George Robertson claimed: "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead."

I'd like to think that Englishness is what we are as a result of being born or choosing to live in this country. As has been mentioned by others, the English condition is in large part a resentment towards other nations being pandered to whilst our own identity is sneered at by the likes of Emily Thornbury. We saw the FCO flying the Welsh flag on 1 March, will we see the St George's cross over it on 23 April? I wouldn't bet on it.

chestnut said:

Minority supported Scottish separatism, agitation and nationalism is the fault of the English, say embittered Remainers.

No, it's the fault of right wing English nationalists. It's not me who conflates the Conservative party with England.

The scary thing is our politics seems utterly incapable of reversing the trend. There seems to be a death wish out there. It's bizarre.

Anyway, rather off-topic but I need some advice. My union (the ATL) is voting on a merger with the NUT. I am implacably opposed, not least because they are holding up the UCU as an example of a successful super-Union (which has merely halved pensions and holidays while pay remains stagnant - except curiously for the pay of VCs and Union reps). I became aware earlier this year that despite multiple notifications they had not changed my address. I remedied that slightly past the deadline for balloting via a rather curt email and was told another ballot would be sent to my current address. That was a month ago. A week ago I rang up and asked where it was - they promised to despatch another. That hasn't arrived either. Moreover, I have checked my old address - no ballot was sent there either. It is not the postal service as other materials, including others from the ATL, are coming through fine - I even had a ballot paper for Vice President. The obvious inference is that they have not been sent.

Now that leaves me with a dilemma. Clearly they are in breach of two aspects of the TUCA 1992 - failing to maintain a current register, and failing to ballot on a merger. However, the ATL are refusing to hear any complaint. Should I complain to the certification officer (who seems a toothless tool of the TUC, quite frankly) or just let it go and switch to the NASUWT? Incidentally I will be switching anyway. I can't stay with a Union that's repeatedly lied to me.

Any thoughts or suggestions would be gratefully received, because I'm livid at the way they are behaving (and the new Union will be a monster that will be bad in every imaginable way) but I really could do without the hassle of a formal complaint.

SouthamObserver said:

chestnut said:

Minority supported Scottish separatism, agitation and nationalism is the fault of the English, say embittered Remainers.

No, it's the fault of right wing English nationalists. It's not me who conflates the Conservative party with England.

Right wing English Nationalists in Sunderland. No wonder Labour's dying.

The SNP asked for soft Brexit. May said no.

RoyalBlue said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

Your party conflated the Tories and the English for decades for base partisan reasons. What a shame that now you might reap that whirlwind!

They already have, Slab are finished,

Mr. Divvie, did the Scots not have a referendum on establishing the Holyrood Parliament?

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% er Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots somes state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

usual english creeping

it's quite repellent

odd that you dont blame the welsh

Why should I? It was the English votes that mattered.

ah yes the welsh dont count

however, the closeness of the vote suggest they do, as did the votes of scots and paddies who also voted out

but like all english lefties you only want to wallow in Uriah Heep style self loathing

George Orwell really did have it down to a tee

Alistair said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

The only mystery to me is why SLab don't see this. It is clearly their way forward.

SLab are Unionists

haha. They claim to be unionists now but for many years they fanned the flames of Scottish Nationalism when it suited them.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, did the Scots not have a referendum on establishing the Holyrood Parliament?

*wearily* And that referendum was proposed in Labour's 1997 manifesto for which the 'English' voted for in a landslide.

RoyalBlue said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

chestnut said:

Minority supported Scottish separatism, agitation and nationalism is the fault of the English, say embittered Remainers.

No, it's the fault of right wing English nationalists. It's not me who conflates the Conservative party with England.

Right wing English Nationalists in Sunderland. No wonder Labour's dying.

Southam is apparently incapable of recognising that Labour's stoking of Scottish nationalism in the 80s followed by a totally lopsided and partisan devolution settlement in the 90s might have contributed in some way to the situation we are now in.

You can take the boy out of North London, but you can't take the North London out of the boy.

Mr. Observer, we have most MPs in Parliament too...

Mr. Divvie, yes. I never said otherwise. I said the English had no votes in the establishment of Holyrood, which we didn't, because it was determined by a referendum of Scots.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Bojabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% er Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots somes state.

I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That endeat 65-70%.

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

usual english creeping

it's quite repellent

odd that you dont blame the welsh

Why should I? It was the English votes that mattered.

ah yes the welsh dont count

however, the closeness of the vote suggest they do, as did the votes of scots and paddies who also voted out

but like all english lefties you only want to wallow in Uriah Heep style self loathing

George Orwell really did have it down to a tee

Nah - I do not loathe myself, my English family or English people generally. But the fact is that it was the votes of the English that mattered in the EU referendum.

no it was the votes of british citizens that mattered.

all were equal, thats what a country is about

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, we have most MPs in Parliament too...

Mr. Divvie, yes. I never said otherwise. I said the English had no votes in the establishment of Holyrood, which we didn't, because it was determined by a referendum of Scots.

Could have chosen not to elect Labour.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bojabob, so, because your side lost a vote you no longer love a country that previously you did?

That's rather sad. Sadder still that you feel as much (or more) loyalty to foreigners than your own people.

Mr. Nabavi, indeed, and I wish those who keep raising stupid little regional assemblies in England would learn that lesson and not make an even worse error of judgement.

Although a centrist in political terms I'm an atheist and oppose the idea of an hereditary head of state.a patriot I would have to subscribe to "God Save the Queen" so in all honesty I can't consider myself a patriot either - the concept has pretty much been appropriated by English right -wingers in the UK.

Are there any byelections tonight?

timmo said:

Are there any byelections tonight?

Yep. On the NEW THREAD.

Bojabob said:

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

I want the Union to survive, but cannot see how it can long-term. I don't blame Scots for wanting out. Right wing English nationalism is not attractive, conciliatory or collaborative. Maybe a Scandinavia style set-up is the way to go.

Even if you do manage to get rid of Corbyn, your party is still completely fucked because it's full of people who hate the idea of Englishness.

Maybe. I am intrigued by the idea of Englishness, though. I am very comfortable with my idea of what it is. But I am not sure it is the same idea of it that you might have. What I dislike is people claiming ownership of it. That's why I have always disliked nationalism, including the SNP variety.

And your bloody party gave the Scots devolution and fed the beast. What was it George Robertson claimed: "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead."

I'd like to think that Englishness is what we are as a result of being born or choosing to live in this country. As has been mentioned by others, the English condition is in large part a resentment towards other nations being pandered to whilst our own identity is sneered at by the likes of Emily Thornbury. We saw the FCO flying the Welsh flag on 1 March, will we see the St George's cross over it on 23 April? I wouldn't bet on it.

You see, those attitudes are exactly what I see as the opposite of Englishness. I am often told by my American clients that I am "very English" (I am actually very polite in real life, believe it or not). I couldn't care less about the stuff you mention. I think Englishness is about being polite, having a fondness for cosiness, an aversion to extremes, being open and neighbourly and moaning about rain while loving the wonderful verdant landscapes it creates. I have never once noticed nor considered the perceived inequitability of flags borne on the FCO.

Basically your definition of Englishness is pretending not to have a nationality. The reason that Thornberry incident was so toxic was because it showed her to be a snob.

The flag stuff doesn't bother me - I'm more concerned about the asymmetry of devolution and public spending in the United Kingdom - but I get that identity does matter to others and I'm happy to support them.