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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackabl

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Bojabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Referendums are only valid if people respect the results - the Nats clearly don't respect the result of the last one - and they are extremely unlikely to react well to losing indyref2 so May well within her rights to tell them to do one.

    Ah yes i remember Salmond standing there and declaring UDI on the 19th of September.
    yet just 18 months later

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14471087.Alex_Salmond__Boris_as_PM__could_trigger_another_independence_vote_/

    "Alex Salmond has suggested the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister could be the "material change of circumstances" that triggers another independence referendum."

    You really are pissing against the Scottish rain if you are trying to argue that a departure from the EU is not a material change in circumstances.
    It was a sufficiently material change in circumstances for the government to entirely forget its own manifesto commitments.
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Sturgeons proposed referendum date is after the Brexit talks have concluded by Theresa May's own timetable.

    And that is TM position. However, Nicola knows that after Brexit is agreed it will take time for the electoral commission to agree the wording, the HOC and the HOL to pass the legislation and all of this before a campaign starts.

    She is seeking to start the process now as she is aware that delay will take it well into 2020 - 2021 or beyond.
    Sooooo, she is making sure things are ready on time?

    Outrageous!
    Yes, that was my thinking when I read his post.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,023

    I know the term sane Unionism is an oxymoron on this place, but just in case.

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/842423863237595137

    The problem being that in fact Parliaments should indeed be considered unrepresentative of the views of the people on any given specific issue. Parliaments are elected on a whole range of issues - with different people agreeing on different aspects of their manifestos and no single issue necessarily having majority support. So it is not possible to suggest that just because Parliament has a majority for one specific issue that this represents the view of the majority of the electorate.

    Two obvious examples of this are the EU referendum - where there was a clear Remain majority in Parliament but a Leave majority in the population - and the Death Penalty where all polls show majority support for its return but there is no majority in Parliament for it.

    I don't say this as a reason for not holding the Indy Vote but only to correct Massie's false arguments. Something he is unfortunately very prone to.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,180
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Nats behaving like neds on the railway platform - gesticulating to passengers on a train pulling out of the station that they are "scared of losing" - safe in the knowledge that any real confrontation isn't happening.

    Ah how i remember the doesn't want a referendum, shouldn't ball a referendum, can't call a referendum, won't call a referendum , oh it's a referendum progression from last time round.

    I have time table and cheese ready.
    Do you remember "once in a generation" ?

    Oh, i see we have moved onto can't have a referendum.
    I can see you are hurting Alistair - but best you face reality - the majority of Scots don't want another referendum in the near or even medium term.
    The majority want one once Brexit negotiations are complete. Which is Sturgeons proposed suggestion.
    No she has suggested one could be before March 2019 and the completion of negotiations
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    Being a doormat has worked so well.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Bojabob said:

    Bojabob said:

    Weird one. Is it just me or is Laura Kuenssberg a bit irksome? There is just something about her presentational style and breathless need to work in controversy and comment that I find grating on the BBC. She'd be better placed posting on PB.

    She is the reason Trump banned the BBC from press conferences
    I'm warming to her.
    Didn't the Corbynistas try to get her sacked for her damning endictment of their exalted leader? If she gets banned from Trump's press conferences AND pisses off the lunatic leftist fringe, it sounds like she has the rare gift of pleasing nobody. That is her job.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    Bit of a blooper from the editing team at ITV London news... read carefully #pottymouthremoaner

    https://twitter.com/theboyknowles/status/842443083753099265
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jonathan said:

    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

    Why did Sturgeon charge headfirst into May's trap ?

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,792
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    really

    do scots have a mental age of seven ?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

    Why did Sturgeon charge headfirst into May's trap ?

    Er. May didn't need to say anything. Maybe this is to distract from the expenses stuff. Otherwise I don't get it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,180
    Jonathan said:

    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

    She didn't if anything it is Sturgeon who is trapped rushing into a referendum demand before Brexit talks have definitively been concluded and before she finds out what May will actually propose to the EU
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    really

    do scots have a mental age of seven ?
    Jack's view of "many Scots" is extremely patronising frankly.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017
    Dupont-Aignan has lost his case at the Conseil d'Etat.

    The judgment is here. This probably means he will be holding a demo outside the TV studios on Monday.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

    She didn't if anything it is Sturgeon who is trapped rushing into a referendum demand before Brexit talks have definitively been concluded and before she finds out what May will actually propose to the EU
    Indeed Nicla blinked first on Monday - if May was leading us down a path that would have enhanced the chances of winning an indyrefX then why did she interrupt her ?

  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    JackW said:

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    Unionist Scots should recognise that the views of their fellow countrymen and women in Northern Ireland, Wales and England have equal merit.

    If they do not, they are not unionists (remainers).


  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    Being a doormat has worked so well.
    Please wipe your shoes on the in.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,180
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

    She didn't if anything it is Sturgeon who is trapped rushing into a referendum demand before Brexit talks have definitively been concluded and before she finds out what May will actually propose to the EU
    Indeed Nicla blinked first on Monday - if May was leading us down a path that would have enhanced the chances of winning an indyrefX then why did she interrupt her ?

    Exactly May is keeping her cards close to her chest until she invokes Article 50 for a reason
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited March 2017
    Bojabob said:

    Moving away from the core news here, just watched the May interview. She used the language forging "a new relationship with the European Union". This seems to me to be a change in nuance if not in fact – rather than using words like "exiting" which have been the norm up to now. I might be reading too much into things. But could @SeanT be right and the government will now go for EEA-lite. Hmm.

    There was a report a few days ago saying ' 'Brexit' polled badly and wasn't to be used anymore. Brexit means a new relationship with Europe is the new phrase apparently. Another example of May's uselessness.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
    I think most British people are fed up with being taken for a ride by Scotland's tinpot FM.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

    I am sorry you did not understand what I wrote.

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    really

    do scots have a mental age of seven ?
    Many seven year old Scottish children do.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
    So what should you do? Just sit there, being shelled?

    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    She is dealing with the Scotland that she finds.The Scotland that voted - less than a thousand days ago - to remain in the UK. If they wanted something else, the Scots had the opportunity to vote for it. They didn't. Why should May pander to that minority who represent the losers?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    Spot on - May and certainly Ruth in her press conference is bypassing the FM and speaking directly to Scots.

    The FM has been sidelined and the charade in Holyrood next week will simply highlight the FM's impotence.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,792
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    really

    do scots have a mental age of seven ?
    Jack's view of "many Scots" is extremely patronising frankly.
    Translation - You don't like my view. Accepted.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    really

    do scots have a mental age of seven ?
    There is certainly a big dose of playing to infantilism in the whole marketing of the supposed need for Scottish independence. "You won't let us do this, you won't let us do that", etc.

    Many Unionist Scots use the word "English" to describe the main British-level newspapers, even if not to describe the British government.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340



    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

    But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

    The SNP is going to put it to a vote next week in the Scottish parliament. It cannot win on its own.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997
    surbiton said:

    The SNP should call for a referendum for Autumn 2018 whether May likes it or not. If that referendum says a majority of Scots want independence, then there can be a showdown.

    How was the Republic of Ireland formed ?

    I'm not sure if civil war between Scottish Nationalists and Scottish Unionists, with partition, is the optimal outcome.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149
    JonathanD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Moving away from the core news here, just watched the May interview. She used the language forging "a new relationship with the European Union". This seems to me to be a change in nuance if not in fact – rather than using words like "exiting" which have been the norm up to now. I might be reading too much into things. But could @SeanT be right and the government will now go for EEA-lite. Hmm.

    There was a report a few days ago saying ' 'Brexit' polled badly and wasn't to be used anymore. Brexit means a new relationship with Europe is the new phrase apparently. Another example of May's uselessness.
    She's been saying 'as we forge a new role for ourselves in the world' since she took over. I suppose being an object lesson in the dangers of nationalistic pride counts as a role.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
    I think most British people are fed up with being taken for a ride by Scotland's tinpot FM.
    And more and more Scots. The race to sign the petition shows anger is growing.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I have to give the SNP some credit.

    They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

    That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,180
    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    Especially when there is no.clear polling support for independence in Scotland and certainly not when polling also shows May should be allowed to get on with Brexit negotiations without the distraction of another referendum
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    TGOHF said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Whilst hiding from the electorate the disastrous effects of her policies on the country including education and negotiating a couple of elections - and with Eck sharpening his blade behind her.

    Fun times ahead.

    Yep - a few more years of politics not as normal when everything is framed by independence.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    Most Scots see her as a "Tory PM" !!
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

    I am sorry you did not understand what I wrote.

    No need to be sorry.

    You've been plugging the same line since 24th June.

    We're all hearing you loud and clear. Apart from the electorate, that is.

  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

    The SNP is going to put it to a vote next week in the Scottish parliament. It cannot win on its own.

    Mind you, the British parliament voted to hold the EU referendum, and plenty of Remain supporters reckon that was a bad idea!
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.
    By your logic as long as the SNP are able to form a minority government in Holyrood then there will be a referendum every parliament ?

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,997
    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,301
    Well, at least nobody is talking about Phil Hammond.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,180

    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.
    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.
    By your logic as long as the SNP are able to form a minority government in Holyrood then there will be a referendum every parliament ?

    That depends what they put in their manifesto. On this occasion they clearly stated that if Scotland voted to remain in the EU but Britain as a whole did not, they had the right to call for a new referendum.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    chestnut said:

    I have to give the SNP some credit.

    They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

    That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.

    Cameron gave them everything they needed to keep on fighting the morning after the referendum result was announced. And just about everything that has happened since has played into the SNP's hands.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    really

    do scots have a mental age of seven ?
    Many seven year old Scottish children do.
    it's the 4 million older than seven that seems to be the problem

    I'm still waiting to see how we wont take orders from Mrs May, but will take them from Mrs Merkel pans out

    much as I love the germans I doubt theyll be the soft touch the english are

    #McGreece
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223



    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

    But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.
    So she shouldn't treat as her overwhelming priority?

    It's a view. I guess in Holland you'd vote for the Animals Party.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    Greens crapping on their own voters by deciding after they're elected that they're going to kowtow to another party can't conjure a mandate for that other party into existence.

    Sturgeon could, with support from her Green pals, call a general election. The only reason she doesn't is she knows she'd get an almighty kick up the butt.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.
    Whereas in reality the best that can be hoped for is a thoroughly divided Ireland and a Scotland devoid of business or investment.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,180
    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.
    That is a bit hard on Sweden!
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.
    By your logic as long as the SNP are able to form a minority government in Holyrood then there will be a referendum every parliament ?

    That depends what they put in their manifesto. On this occasion they clearly stated that if Scotland voted to remain in the EU but Britain as a whole did not, they had the right to call for a new referendum.
    And should the rUk indulge them - how many referendums would have to vote NO before the people of Scotland would earn a break from lengthy, decisive campaigns that harm business confidence ?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

    Why did Sturgeon charge headfirst into May's trap ?

    Er. May didn't need to say anything. Maybe this is to distract from the expenses stuff. Otherwise I don't get it.
    She had to say something, surely, and she wasn't going to say 'Yep, let's wreck the already massively complicated Brexit negotiations with a Scottish side-show'. So she had to say No, on the timing.

    However, @JackW has it right: there are ways of saying No which sound like 'We fully respect your request and we'd really love to help you with it, but there are very difficult practical problems with the timetable you've suggested, so we'll set up a mechanism for agreeing a mutually convenient date."

    Flim-flam, of course, and no different in content to what Mrs May has said, but giving a little less of a peg for grievance.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RoyalBlue said:



    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

    But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.
    So she shouldn't treat as her overwhelming priority?

    It's a view. I guess in Holland you'd vote for the Animals Party.
    That is not what I wrote.

    Brexit is not the only important matter Theresa May has to deal with. She needs to give some of the others a bit of thought too.

    That should be an entirely uncontroversial statement. But the loonier Leavers can't get their heads around the idea that anything else might have any relevance at all.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

    Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149
    HYUFD said:

    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    chestnut said:

    I have to give the SNP some credit.

    They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

    That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.

    Cameron gave them everything they needed to keep on fighting the morning after the referendum result was announced. And just about everything that has happened since has played into the SNP's hands.

    Cameron bad, May bad, Nicla good - I sense a pattern.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

    Why did Sturgeon charge headfirst into May's trap ?

    Er. May didn't need to say anything. Maybe this is to distract from the expenses stuff. Otherwise I don't get it.
    She had to say something, surely, and she wasn't going to say 'Yep, let's wreck the already massively complicated Brexit negotiations with a Scottish side-show'. So she had to say No, on the timing.

    However, @JackW has it right: there are ways of saying No which sound like 'We fully respect your request and we'd really love to help you with it, but there are very difficult practical problems with the timetable you've suggested, so we'll set up a mechanism for agreeing a mutually convenient date."

    Flim-flam, of course, and no different in content to what Mrs May has said, but giving a little less of a peg for grievance.
    As I said, she didn't have to say anything. What you suggest is saying nothing in a longwinded fashion.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    The is inconvenient.
    By your logic as long as the SNP are able to form a minority government in Holyrood then there will be a referendum every parliament ?

    That depends what they put in their manifesto. On this occasion they clearly stated that if Scotland voted to remain in the EU but Britain as a whole did not, they had the right to call for a new referendum.
    And should the rUk indulge them - how many referendums would have to vote NO before the people of Scotland would earn a break from lengthy, decisive campaigns that harm business confidence ?

    If the people of Scotland do not want to have referendums on independence they will stop voting for parties that offer them.

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    As I said, she didn't have to say anything. What you suggest is saying nothing in a longwinded fashion.

    Yes, exactly.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    HYUFD said:

    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.
    It's not a union of equals - rUk population if over 12 times Scotland. And Scotland has just 56 of 650 MPs.

  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

    Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

    Your party conflated the Tories and the English for decades for base partisan reasons. What a shame that now you might reap that whirlwind!
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

    Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

    Absolutely. The self styled patriots are anything but.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    TGOHF said:

    chestnut said:

    I have to give the SNP some credit.

    They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

    That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.

    Cameron gave them everything they needed to keep on fighting the morning after the referendum result was announced. And just about everything that has happened since has played into the SNP's hands.

    Cameron bad, May bad, Nicla good - I sense a pattern.

    Yes, I suspect that Nicola Sturgeon is much more attuned to sentiment in Scotland than either Cameron or May.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,301
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.
    It's not a union of equals - rUk population if over 12 times Scotland. And Scotland has just 56 of 650 MPs.

    Why do Unionists keep saying it is then?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
    So what should you do? Just sit there, being shelled?

    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    She is dealing with the Scotland that she finds.The Scotland that voted - less than a thousand days ago - to remain in the UK. If they wanted something else, the Scots had the opportunity to vote for it. They didn't. Why should May pander to that minority who represent the losers?
    I'm afraid the PM and Mundell have handled the Scottish angle desperately badly. The Scotland she "finds" is one that voted significantly against BREXIT and yet this administration has barely made any effort to bring Scots on board. Look at the shambles over agriculture powers and the almost total lack of discussions with any of the devolved administration over BREXIT.

    The Scots were told the Union would mean remaining in the EU. Hhmmmm.

    I'm heartily saddened by the current situation but the long term implications are to my mind clear and it doesn't bode well for the Union.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    chestnut said:

    I have to give the SNP some credit.

    They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

    That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.

    Cameron gave them everything they needed to keep on fighting the morning after the referendum result was announced. And just about everything that has happened since has played into the SNP's hands.

    Cameron bad, May bad, Nicla good - I sense a pattern.

    Yes, I suspect that Nicola Sturgeon is much more attuned to sentiment in Scotland than either Cameron or May.

    Not the majority - as was proved in Indyref1.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Glenn, your argument that 8% of the UK population should have a veto on the rest of the country is not an argument for a partnership of equals. Every Scottish, English, Welsh and Northern Irish vote had the same weight.

    Mr. Observer, it was Labour that thought Celtic devolution would give it everlasting fiefdoms...
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    HYUFD said:

    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.
    of course it does
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154



    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

    But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.
    More people voted in the Referendum than in the General Election the year earlier. Politically, delivery of Brexit is top trumps. She at least gets what needs to be done.
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    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642



    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

    But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.
    Ha! Indeed. Well put – and QED.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

    'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'
    Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

    I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

    But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.
    It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.
    I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

    I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

    The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.
    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    So government by poll, eh? What happens if polls start to indicate that Brits do not want to leave the EU?

  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.
    It's not a union of equals - rUk population if over 12 times Scotland. And Scotland has just 56 of 650 MPs.

    Why do Unionists keep saying it is then?
    When after Indyref 4, iScotland joins the EU you will get to experience a real union of non equals.

    Until then - stop devaluing the wishes of the majority of your fellow Brits in Scotland, England , Wales and NI.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017

    chestnut said:

    I have to give the SNP some credit.

    They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

    That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.

    Cameron gave them everything they needed to keep on fighting the morning after the referendum result was announced. And just about everything that has happened since has played into the SNP's hands.

    The SNP have thrived due to perceptions of inadequacy with Labour and treachery with the coalition-forming Liberal Democrats. This plus the longstanding emnity towards the Tories fractured the winning Remain vote.

    The key to me though is that both their formidable election successes have come at a time when the Scottish left was in disarray yet the 2014 referendum result seemingly guaranteed membership of the United Kingdom "for a generation" so the SNP could not pursue their main objective. A part of their vote was given to them whilst they were being curbed.

    Quite what the real SNP vote is with independence as a live, rather than subdued, issue remains to be seen.

    I strongly suspect that it's lower than the percentages achieved in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    May is increasing the chance of breaking the union. The only question is whether it is deliberate or not.

    Probably incompetence rather than malice.. Maybe we'll get another u turn next week.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

    Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

    Your party conflated the Tories and the English for decades for base partisan reasons. What a shame that now you might reap that whirlwind!

    Yes, I will be very sorry to see the UK break-up as I am a British patriot.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
    So what should you do? Just sit there, being shelled?

    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    She is dealing with the Scotland that she finds.The Scotland that voted - less than a thousand days ago - to remain in the UK. If they wanted something else, the Scots had the opportunity to vote for it. They didn't. Why should May pander to that minority who represent the losers?
    I'm afraid the PM and Mundell have handled the Scottish angle desperately badly. The Scotland she "finds" is one that voted significantly against BREXIT and yet this administration has barely made any effort to bring Scots on board. Look at the shambles over agriculture powers and the almost total lack of discussions with any of the devolved administration over BREXIT.

    The Scots were told the Union would mean remaining in the EU. Hhmmmm.

    I'm heartily saddened by the current situation but the long term implications are to my mind clear and it doesn't bode well for the Union.
    the Scots were also told the referendum would be a once in a generation occasion

    you appear to want to air brush statements you dont like out of history
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    May is increasing the chance of breaking the union. The only question is whether it is deliberate or not.

    Probably incompetence rather than malice.. Maybe we'll get another u turn next week.

    I'm expecting one. The question will be how the Prime Minister manages to extricate herself with the minimum embarrassment.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.
    It's not a union of equals - rUk population if over 12 times Scotland. And Scotland has just 56 of 650 MPs.

    Why do Unionists keep saying it is then?
    Equal humans. You don't get to be worth twelve Englishmen just because you pretend to be Scottish and temporarily reside there.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited March 2017
    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,301
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

    Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.
    It's not a union of equals - rUk population if over 12 times Scotland. And Scotland has just 56 of 650 MPs.

    Why do Unionists keep saying it is then?
    When after Indyref 4, iScotland joins the EU you will get to experience a real union of non equals.

    Until then - stop devaluing the wishes of the majority of your fellow Brits in Scotland, England , Wales and NI.
    At least you're not even bothering to deny that your politicians of choice have been lying about the union of equals bollox.

    You seem a little distrait, if you don't mind me saying so.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Well, PB's going to be a delightful place until indyref2 is over.
  • Options
    Maybe the Union has just run its course? Like Brexit before the referendum, it's just an open wound that never heals. As Brexit and Trump have shown, a lot of people want something-anything-new. They're not particularly swayed by economic arguments, they're more emotional, more personal.
    From here in the East Midlands, it's almost impossible to know the real situation, the real feeling North of the border. Is it all SNP bluster? Is it English Tories denying Scotland's democratic right? I just don't know.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
    So what should you do? Just sit there, being shelled?

    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    She is dealing with the Scotland that she finds.The Scotland that voted - less than a thousand days ago - to remain in the UK. If they wanted something else, the Scots had the opportunity to vote for it. They didn't. Why should May pander to that minority who represent the losers?
    I'm afraid the PM and Mundell have handled the Scottish angle desperately badly. The Scotland she "finds" is one that voted significantly against BREXIT and yet this administration has barely made any effort to bring Scots on board. Look at the shambles over agriculture powers and the almost total lack of discussions with any of the devolved administration over BREXIT.

    The Scots were told the Union would mean remaining in the EU. Hhmmmm.

    I'm heartily saddened by the current situation but the long term implications are to my mind clear and it doesn't bode well for the Union.
    the Scots were also told the referendum would be a once in a generation occasion

    you appear to want to air brush statements you dont like out of history

    They then voted for parties that made clear in their manifestos it was not a once in a generation occasion - in elections for both the Westminster and Edinburgh parliaments.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149
    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    Cheer up. Scandinavia is still a thing despite being made up of several countries with Norway stubbornly outside the EU.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.
    Isn't it both?
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    Why's it a catastrophe ? If the Scots want to go, Godspeed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,180
    edited March 2017
    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    Given present polls have No still ahead even despite May's alleged 'hard Brexit' if the nationalists lose again Britain will be secure for a generation
  • Options
    BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

    Same old arguments, eh?

    May bad
    The Union is breaking apart

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.
    They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

    Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

    I no longer consider myself a British patriot. That ended when 17m of my fellow citizens decided to pull us out of the EU and turn our backs on our colleagues and friends in continental Europe, because many of them didn't like foreigners adding to the gaiety of our once-open nation.

    I now consider myself a European Londoner first and an Englishman second – mainly for sporting loyalties of which I am still proud. The Union, for me, is a spent force.

    The Scots should strike out into the world, and we should wish them well as a close friend and loved neighbour. If they don't, as @Pulpstar said, their beautiful, wonderful nation will forever be divided. If they do, few will want to return to what's left of the 'Union' within a decade or so. Pro-Independence in an Indy Scotland will by 2030 be running at 65-70%.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is increasing the chance of breaking the union. The only question is whether it is deliberate or not.

    Probably incompetence rather than malice.. Maybe we'll get another u turn next week.

    I'm expecting one. The question will be how the Prime Minister manages to extricate herself with the minimum embarrassment.
    I offer a £50 bet TMay does not U-turn, and agree to a Scots vote pre-Brexit.
    No bet, not least because the terms of the U-turn may leave it unclear which side of Brexit the Scottish vote takes place, or whether it takes place on Brexit day (henceforth to be known as B-day).
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.

    Yep.

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    May is increasing the chance of breaking the union. The only question is whether it is deliberate or not.

    Probably incompetence rather than malice.. Maybe we'll get another u turn next week.

    I think you should address your complaint to Tony Blair, who was warned that his half-baked devolution plan would eventually lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.

    This latest episode in that process is based entirely on an excuse. If it wasn't synthetic outrage about the EU, it would be synthetic outrage about something else.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.
    Isn't it both?
    It survived Scottish nationalism. It will not survive the English nationalism.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Blue, just over a week until the first F1 race :D

    Mr. Meeks, *raises an eyebrow* Not sure there was a 2014 referendum on England leaving the UK...

    Mr. Jonathan, we'll see. The future can be hard to predict. A massive army of Turks was poised to crush Constantinople around the start of 1400. Then Tamerlane rolled up, obliterated the Turkish army, and buggered off, pausing only to turn the Sultan Bayezid into his foot stool.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

    And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

    The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

    Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

    This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

    Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.
    I used "English PM" deliberately.

    Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".
    So what should you do? Just sit there, being shelled?

    May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

    She is dealing with the Scotland that she finds.The Scotland that voted - less than a thousand days ago - to remain in the UK. If they wanted something else, the Scots had the opportunity to vote for it. They didn't. Why should May pander to that minority who represent the losers?
    I'm afraid the PM and Mundell have handled the Scottish angle desperately badly. The Scotland she "finds" is one that voted significantly against BREXIT and yet this administration has barely made any effort to bring Scots on board. Look at the shambles over agriculture powers and the almost total lack of discussions with any of the devolved administration over BREXIT.

    The Scots were told the Union would mean remaining in the EU. Hhmmmm.

    I'm heartily saddened by the current situation but the long term implications are to my mind clear and it doesn't bode well for the Union.
    Jack, how do you make ANY practical effort to bring the Scots on board? They voted for the other side of a binary choice.

    There is one thing we can take from Sturgeon's actions. A Miliband Govt. propped up by the SNP would have been every bit in the pocket of the Scots as the election poster suggested.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Jonathan said:

    I'm very sad.

    Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

    This is an utter catastrophe.

    It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.
    Indeed.

    It's the English right who have walked away from the union.
This discussion has been closed.