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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Tru

The WH2016. Listen to @keiranpedley & @leobarasi analyse the dramatic outcome in latest PB Polling Matters podcast https://t.co/omXZ2HSWbu
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She is making a big mistake.
Was this a data fail they never saw coming or did they put a brave face on a iceberg they saw weeks out and couldn't steer away from?
Bush hit 11% in 04 and Dole got 12% in 96.
Bob Smithson assures everyone that Clinton has won.
Trump at over 11 on Betfair
And I wake up to this
Stock markets are crashing
Its snowing heavily
Is it the end of the world ?????
Hillary's camp gives the impression that they're planning on finding a way to challenge something somewhere.
And let's be honest, this isn't close. She might swing 1 state on shock late votes, but she needs several 100/1 shots in conjunction now.
What a hypocrite
ie all precincts could have reported with some votes actually still to be counted?
The thing is, she will never admit she is to blame (as we saw over her emails where she spread the blame for her own culpability as far around as possible). She will probably continue to believe that it was Trump who somehow stole her birthright to be the first female president, which will likely have a severe negative effect on her health (as with Greeley in 1872).
But the fact is, she did not deserve to be that historic candidate. She just was not good enough. Tonight has shown in truly brutal relief just how much she was hated, and tainted.
Trump got 13% of Black votes ?
JackW - what a f'cking ARSE.
California: Clinton + 1.2m with 39% in.
So looks like Clinton but not 100% certain.
We won't really know if that's true for a while as the calculate the exit polls properly.
That's a big problem with polling on things like elections: you very rarely get data to alter your models, and if the models match the data, you cannot be sure they matched for the correct reasons.
As the podcast mentions, there seems to be yet another polling failure with modelling the electorate, and as Speedy of pb said on the last thread, a big red flag is when the polls get turnout wrong.
Leave won by 1 million and that doesnt count :-)
Tram crash in London. Police say it is a serious incident.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37919658
Hopefully this will put an end to the dynastic presidency.
Just look at the % to come on the West Coast
They need to have a second referendum to find out exactly which version of Trump everyone thought they were voting for.
@Olivianuzzi
Asked if the Trump campaign internal polling was as off as the rest of the polling, Sarah Huckabee tells me it was.
Folks please avoid Croydon if possible this morning to allow emergency crews through following a horrific tram crash many fatalities and injuries so please avoid the Addiscombe area if possible
HARRY ENTEN 2:20 AM
Johnson is at just 3 percent of the national vote. That may go up slightly, but he’s likely not going to get close to 5 percent. In the end, most voters ended up choosing either Clinton or Trump.
Congratulations to those who ignored conventional wisdom and bet on Trump. Commiserations to the rest of the world.