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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Tru

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    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
    The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

    Early morning hyperbole?

    Not really, it's true. The era of social progress is over. We now await to see the extent of damage a Trump presidency will cause.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Well we know one thing now - Trump was wrong about the system being rigged!
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    PlatoSaid said:

    As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

    And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

    Screw Brexit. What the Americans really should have learned from is Trump winning the Republican primary and the complete destruction of GOP Establishment candidates like Bush and Kasich, who were just a fag paper away from Hillary in tone, substance and complete lack of charisma. Not to mention Bernie Sanders scoring more than three votes.
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    jonny83 said:

    Well if the land of the free can elect a misogynistic, racist demagogue then anything can happen.

    The result has completely changed my view on Corby's prospects. If America can elect a maniac then so can this country.

    True. Although, with luck, the realization that Brexit is no easy ride will have sunk in by then and we'd have got it out of our system. But there will be many who will cling on to the political 'f*ck you' like a drug.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    PlatoSaid said:

    And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

    I bloody hate that, people who take one line for months or years on end, and then when they are wrong they "explain" why it was obvious all along that the surprise was going to happen. They are charlatans.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    PlatoSaid said:

    As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

    And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

    Pundits are almoat always wrong but never let it slow them down
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    DavidL said:

    Why is everyone calling Clinton a bad loser? What has she said?

    They sent everyone home from their gathering saying she would speak in the morning. She has conceded to Trump in a phone call but has not spoken in public
    Just imagine for a moment about what Hillary must be thinking. She has endured God knows what from Bill and stood by his side to keep her eyes focussed on one goal: being the first of her sex to be President of the United States of America.

    Now she will forever be a footnote. The woman who lost to Donald Trump.

    Hard to appear in public when you are processing that. That America hates you more than it hates Donald Trump. That's tough.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387

    Mr. Abode, jein. I don't think it's a left/right issue. I think it's about globalisation benefiting those at the top, being difficult for those at the bottom, and substantially changing (through mass migration) the nature of nations.

    You can look at that from a right or left wing perspective on either side.

    Mr. L, when I said 'worst loser' I didn't mean graceless, I meant she was hot favourite in 2008, and favourite in 2016, and lost both times.

    Oh right. I agree this is the most remarkable result since Truman. She had every advantage and still lost handily.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894

    Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

    The only answer I have is a large number of Scandinavian migrants settled there - climate akin to Sweden or Finland apparently.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited November 2016
    Just imagine for a moment about what Hillary must be thinking. She has endured God knows what from Bill and stood by his side to keep her eyes focussed on one goal: being the first of her sex to be President of the United States of America.

    Now she will forever be a footnote. The woman who lost to Donald Trump.

    Hard to appear in public when you are processing that. That America hates you more than it hates Donald Trump. That's tough.
    Well I don't think the next season of House of Cards can top this...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    glw said:

    MAGA

    F***ing hell!

    Looks like Plato had a point after all, a few apologies and a lot less abuse from all sides would be sensible.

    Probably ought to start pondering Corbyn a bit more seriously, I mean the polls are bad for him, but pollsters are not exactly doing a great job right now.

    Pundits, pollsters, forecasters, journalists, talking heads, think tank wonks, and all the other know-it-alls who fill the airwaves and newspapers should reflect on their job sand whether another line of employment might better serve them.

    Will 619 do an IOS?

    Politics is shifting rightwards. Pretty certain Corbyns actually numbers will be as poor as they look.
    Well, it looks like it's shifting towards extremes, really. Greece's government is pretty much of the hard left.
    Paul Mason's masterplan is to rouse the same hunger for change but direct it at a Left-Syriza style movement/party.
    Paul Mason is absolutely nuts. I really didn't have any inclining as to just how hard-left he was until he left Newsnight. I now no longer believe that a Corbyn victory is impossible. It's clear that polls are worth sweet fa, and that from here on now they should no longer be given an ounce of credibility.
    Read one of my posts earlier in this thread.

    If I were a gambler, I'd put money on Labour leading in the polls next year (if the odds were good enough!), and I certainly think it's possible for them to win in 2020.

    On the other hand, if May successfully negotiates the hurricanes swirling around her and leaves the country in a more prosperous and settled state, then she'll have been a better PM than even Thatcher. Early signs are distinctly mixed.

    There are also opportunities for the Lib Dems, if Farron can grasp them. And that's sadly a big conditional.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    For what it's worth....

    46 states called

    Clinton 218. Trump. 278

    Any idea what result constitutes a ‘landslide’ in the US? – Not a clue this end.
    No idea TBH... But I would guess the way they do it north of 300 might be considered as such?
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    jonny83 said:

    Well if the land of the free can elect a misogynistic, racist demagogue then anything can happen.

    The result has completely changed my view on Corby's prospects. If America can elect a maniac then so can this country.

    True. Although, with luck, the realization that Brexit is no easy ride will have sunk in by then and we'd have got it out of our system. But there will be many who will cling on to the political 'f*ck you' like a drug.
    Brexit is already turning about to be not as simple, or as straightforward as some would have had you believe.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    TonyE said:

    Well we know one thing now - Trump was wrong about the system being rigged!

    Trump would have been 50 points ahead if the system hadn't been rigged. It just wasn't rigged enough.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Jobabob said:

    So only WilliamGlenn, MikeL and MonikerDiCanio predicted the correct result on eve of poll although many of us were on Trump and benefited. Even Plato backed off and refused to make a prediction/back a winner. Yet, overall, I suspect PBers profited simply because it was obvious Trump would win at 2am despite being at 6 on Betfair. Hope everyone got on.

    I didn't.

    You've got the wrong Mike I think.
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    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

    And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

    Pundits are almoat always wrong but never let it slow them down
    Like pollsters....
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    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    It's nice to know that do the opposite of what Dan Hodges claims is still 100% valid. It was him coming out for Hilary last night that meant I lumped on to Trump.
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    We are in a flood of anti system, anti establishmentarionism and that is what has driven Brexit and Trump. The world will be a different place in 3 1/2 years, but I still do not see Corbyn taking over. But strange things happen!
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    A huge relief to see the back of la Crook. Good luck, well done and thank you to DJT.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
    The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

    Early morning hyperbole?

    Not really, it's true. The era of social progress is over. We now await to see the extent of damage a Trump presidency will cause.
    Trump's More Socially Liberal Than Some!
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    America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc.
    Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.
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    Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

    Pretty tight there with 96% counted:

    clinton 46.5% 1,299,020
    trump 45.7% 1,276,714
    johnson 3.9% 108,184
    stein 1.3% 35,501

    Probably the large progressive liberal sections there?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 40s41 seconds ago
    The US and the UK both now have governments who rode a wave of populism but have no real idea what to do. Emptiness is as likely as disaster

    Sockets like this are the reason the media calls everything wrong.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc.
    Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.

    Will he be invited here soon I wonder.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Just imagine for a moment about what Hillary must be thinking. She has endured God knows what from Bill and stood by his side to keep her eyes focussed on one goal: being the first of her sex to be President of the United States of America.

    Now she will forever be a footnote. The woman who lost to Donald Trump.

    Hard to appear in public when you are processing that. That America hates you more than it hates Donald Trump. That's tough.
    Well I don't think the next season of House of Cards can top this...

    Clearly the Dems need a candidate like urquhart.
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    We are in a flood of anti system, anti establishmentarionism and that is what has driven Brexit and Trump. The world will be a different place in 3 1/2 years, but I still do not see Corbyn taking over. But strange things happen!

    I don't think it is just that. It's also right-of-centre and anti-immigration. It's white working class who have had enough.

    Those who think Corbyn sings the same tune should think again.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067


    The other winner from tonight is Farage.

    Perhaps we should send him to do a trade deal with the US?

    Be great if Donald comes to UK and wants Nigel to be first in line , leaves the Tories standing waiting with their tongues out
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
    The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

    Early morning hyperbole?

    Not really, it's true. The era of social progress is over. We now await to see the extent of damage a Trump presidency will cause.
    People have voted for politics that they actually want - not the politics the media tells them that they should want.

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    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
    The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

    Early morning hyperbole?

    Doubtless he's over compensating slightly for having so strongly backed Hillary. But it's a fair analysis. If you get two Black Swans in four months it's fair to ask if the Swans are really black.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe one way of viewing the result of the election is like this: one candidate described 25% of the population as deplorable, the other didn't. The latter won the election.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Here's a scenario.

    Trump proves as bad as his campaign rhetoric suggests and does some of the things he says. An emboldened Putin takes areas he wants and turns a few other neighbouring states into vassals. Meanwhile, race riots erupt across the US.

    Will it happen? Probably not. Might it happen? Yes.

    What would the affect of this be on European countries and the EU itself? Would it divide the EU or actually force it together?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    edited November 2016

    We are in a flood of anti system, anti establishmentarionism and that is what has driven Brexit and Trump. The world will be a different place in 3 1/2 years, but I still do not see Corbyn taking over. But strange things happen!

    I don't think it is just that. It's also right-of-centre and anti-immigration. It's white working class who have had enough.

    Those who think Corbyn sings the same tune should think again.
    It's also patriotic, so an IRA supporting republican isn't really going to appeal.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    CD13 said:

    Don't worry, Clintonites. Once the weeping has stopped, they'll be calling for a new election because of Trump-regret.

    Tregret
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    America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc.
    Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.

    Yep and he has a lot of links over here, excuse the pun.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    Just overheard an Edinburgh mother admonishing her recalcitrant child with "It's people like you that got Donald Trump elected, such nonsense"
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    stodge said:

    Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

    The only answer I have is a large number of Scandinavian migrants settled there - climate akin to Sweden or Finland apparently.
    That makes sense.

    The IN-OH-PA belt took a lot of German settlers.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    Has Farage been on the air yet?
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    Has Clinton still not said anything?
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    Ms. Apocalypse, the era of social progress, as you put it, has also given us a country (UK, not US) where 1,400 children were sexually abused and nothing was done for over a decade to avoid upsetting 'cultural sensitivities'.

    I'm not saying the general trend isn't positive, or hasn't been for years. But politically correct bullshit has had serious negative consequences for people. But they're white working class people, far from London. And nobody gave a shit, and those who did were intimidated into silence.

    Until the political class (this isn't only a Labour problem) recognise this and are determined to do something about it, there's scope for UKIP to rebound (if it can be kept together) because a lot of people feel senior civil servants, politicians, police and media are afraid (or for ideological reasons won't) to tell the truth and to protect them.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,429

    IanB2 said:

    Katy Kay obsessing over race.

    Rightly or wrongly, there will be many people waking up this morning scared and feeling less secure.

    Not just in America, but also the world.

    You can argue they're silly to do so, but it's still the case.

    At the very least, Trump needs to reign in some of his campaign rhetoric.
    + 1. Trump has made extraordinarily divisive comments regarding ethnic minorities and women. Many, across the world (including myself) will be thinking to what extent do all those who voted for Trump agree with those statements, and to what extent will the lives of now vulnerable demographics be affected in the US? Then there the implications in terms of international relations, and how that may affect us and other countries.

    Not everyone is a right-winger desperate for the most right-wing government possible.
    We just have to hope that you don't come.
    Don't worry, I won't be heading to the US anytime soon! I will be feeling very sorry for my relatives which live there though.

    EDIT: From her twitter, it looks like Katie Hopkins soon be going to America though!
    It was really a reference to your handle ;)
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    Well done Plato.

    What also surprised me was being repeatedly told between midnight and 1.30am that 'it is over' in favour of Clinton. Until actual votes are counted and different demographics watched it's impossible to call something no matter how many people shouting on Twitter tell you otherwise.

    Even exit polls can be wayward if one candidate is associated with something you wouldn't want to admit in public. That 'shy Trump' aspect seemed clear to some of us.

    As for Nate Silver declaring that he would no longer include the LATimes tracker in his model 'because it has been an outlier all year' what a crass piece of cherry picking.

    IBD/TIPP Tracker poll once again performed superbly.

    Well done, @JennyFreeman. Your posts overnight helped me keep my nerve and stopped me losing a pile of money.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Has Clinton still not said anything?

    Nope, she did concede to Trump over the phone, but nothing public.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Just been said that the Paris climate change deal is dead as a result of Trump's Presidency. This election has to have been the left's ultimate demise

    Coal not dole!
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    glw said:

    MAGA

    F***ing hell!

    Looks like Plato had a point after all, a few apologies and a lot less abuse from all sides would be sensible.

    Probably ought to start pondering Corbyn a bit more seriously, I mean the polls are bad for him, but pollsters are not exactly doing a great job right now.

    Pundits, pollsters, forecasters, journalists, talking heads, think tank wonks, and all the other know-it-alls who fill the airwaves and newspapers should reflect on their job sand whether another line of employment might better serve them.

    Will 619 do an IOS?

    Politics is shifting rightwards. Pretty certain Corbyns actually numbers will be as poor as they look.
    As with others I wouldn't characterise this as shifting 'rightwards', indeed the people Trump won over are economic 'lefties'. His platform against trade which won over the rustbelt was not much different from Sanders. The pushback is against neoliberal economics/globalisation, championed by the traditional right, and which many on the far left are also against. There is also an aspect of social conservatism. So it would be better to characterise this as a lurch to the left economically and a lurch to the right socially.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894
    PlatoSaid said:

    As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

    And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

    Yet Trump's economic policy, such as it is, which is trickledown on steroids, isn't going to improve the lot of the working, lower middle and middle classes who (and I quite agree with you) have been left behind by economic, social, cultural and political developments in the past 20-30 years any more than there is a coherent argument that Brexit will improve things for the same groups over here.

    I get the anger, the frustration and the disillusionment and the desire for "change", I get all of that but it's nothing more than an unfocussed anger. Both May and Trump can talk the talk about speaking for the working classes and wanting to unify the country and all that but in truth they have no solutions and no ideas whatsoever and once that bankruptcy becomes evident, what then ?

    You can't run countries or sophisticated economies simply on the basis of being angry or blaming some "liberal metropolitan elite" (whatever than means). I've heard nothing meaningful that will genuinely and permanently improve the economic fortunes of the WWC or even the "squeezed middle".

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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    If Trump can win, Corbyn can win.

    Discuss.

    lol. Just kidding. I'm off to bed.
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    malcolmg said:


    The other winner from tonight is Farage.

    Perhaps we should send him to do a trade deal with the US?

    Be great if Donald comes to UK and wants Nigel to be first in line , leaves the Tories standing waiting with their tongues out
    Loser Eck will be burning with impotent rage this morning. Such a bitter slob.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,429

    stodge said:

    Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

    The only answer I have is a large number of Scandinavian migrants settled there - climate akin to Sweden or Finland apparently.
    That makes sense.

    The IN-OH-PA belt took a lot of German settlers.
    Yes, I believe at one point German stood some chance of becoming the language of the US?
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    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    MAGA

    F***ing hell!

    Looks like Plato had a point after all, a few apologies and a lot less abuse from all sides would be sensible.

    Probably ought to start pondering Corbyn a bit more seriously, I mean the polls are bad for him, but pollsters are not exactly doing a great job right now.

    Pundits, pollsters, forecasters, journalists, talking heads, think tank wonks, and all the other know-it-alls who fill the airwaves and newspapers should reflect on their job sand whether another line of employment might better serve them.

    Will 619 do an IOS?

    Politics is shifting rightwards. Pretty certain Corbyns actually numbers will be as poor as they look.
    We've Had A Tory Led Government For A While, USA Had LeftY goveRNMENT, We May React In The Opposite Direction. Sounds crazy, but...
    A reaction is more likely to be centred on UKIP or some UKIP-successor. Trump and Brexit were values reactions; Corbyn would benefit from a reaction against the economic consensus, as Syriza did. But 2015 proved that the UK is currently bought in to the right-of-centre on that one.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    edited November 2016
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Artist said:

    We are in a flood of anti system, anti establishmentarionism and that is what has driven Brexit and Trump. The world will be a different place in 3 1/2 years, but I still do not see Corbyn taking over. But strange things happen!

    I don't think it is just that. It's also right-of-centre and anti-immigration. It's white working class who have had enough.

    Those who think Corbyn sings the same tune should think again.
    It's also patriotic, so an IRA supporting republican isn't really going to appeal.
    It might not be Corbyn. As I've said (perhaps too often) earlier on, I think Corbyn sees his role as changing the Labour party into a 'true' left-wing party. Once that is complete - or near then - he'll step down and a carefully-nurtured fellow traveller with less baggage will take his place. What we have seen over the last 18 months is a battle for the Labour party's soul, and the centrists have been trounced.

    Having said that, it is possible for Corbyn to win in his own right.
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    Incidentally, the Austrian presidential election is next month (adhesive permitting).

    When's the French one?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Pong said:

    If Trump can win, Corbyn can win.

    Discuss.

    lol. Just kidding. I'm off to bed.

    Maybe if Trump had previous comments supporting Al Qaeda! :p
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,429

    We are in a flood of anti system, anti establishmentarionism and that is what has driven Brexit and Trump. The world will be a different place in 3 1/2 years, but I still do not see Corbyn taking over. But strange things happen!

    I don't think it is just that. It's also right-of-centre and anti-immigration. It's white working class who have had enough.

    Those who think Corbyn sings the same tune should think again.
    But could we have been looking at President Sanders this morning? It is not impossible.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    Plato went all wobbly wobbly didn't she and went for a narrow Cliton win?
    I confirmed my opinion of months on Trump winning as a certainty the other week when that Jonah ,McTernan, went across to campaign for Hilary. That was the coup de grace for her.
    And Kezia Dugdale going to the USA to campaign for her. :tongue:
    That is Scottish Labour for you , losers to the end.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    Morning all.

    Woke up at 6am to the appalling news.
    We can pray that Trump "moderates" himself in office, but there was very little sign of that on the campaign. A fraudulent, hateful, narcisstic clown is now POTUS-elect.

    Batten the hatches.

    However he performs, much damage has been done. The rhetoric during the campaign has legitimised the worst kind of anti-democratic, racist and misogynistic instincts.

    Western democracy is debauched by this spectacle.

    Among the "guilty men" is Clinton who disgracefully treated the Presidency like a family heirloom.

    Am on an Iberia plane to Spain, waiting for take off. According to my bag tickets, I am going (to) MAD. Apt, no?

    Congratulations to Plato.
    I do not support the repeated posting of information which, each time I clicked through, turned out to be false or at best misleading.

    But I admire your persistence and - occasionally mocked by me and others - channelling of the WWC anger.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
    Yep, Trump has been flattered by the Electoral College.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RobD said:

    Has Clinton still not said anything?

    Nope, she did concede to Trump over the phone, but nothing public.
    BBC breaking news ticker.....

    Confirmed

    Donald Trump now becomes 45th president of the United States.

    Now
    HRC 218.
    Trump 278

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    Pong said:

    If Trump can win, Corbyn can win.

    Discuss.

    lol. Just kidding. I'm off to bed.

    :lol: - enjoy your nap.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    Just overheard an Edinburgh mother admonishing her recalcitrant child with "It's people like you that got Donald Trump elected, such nonsense"

    LOL. Because I listen to loads of nursery rhymes at the moment, whenever I hear 'Nellie the Elephant' I think of Trump!
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    Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067

    DavidL said:

    Why is everyone calling Clinton a bad loser? What has she said?

    They sent everyone home from their gathering saying she would speak in the morning. She has conceded to Trump in a phone call but has not spoken in public
    Just imagine for a moment about what Hillary must be thinking. She has endured God knows what from Bill and stood by his side to keep her eyes focussed on one goal: being the first of her sex to be President of the United States of America.

    Now she will forever be a footnote. The woman who lost to Donald Trump.

    Hard to appear in public when you are processing that. That America hates you more than it hates Donald Trump. That's tough.
    But just, she has got her just desserts.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    It looks as though Jack's ARSE took one hell of a pounding!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790
    TINO? Trump in name only? Will the cynical Trump prevail over the mentally unstable Trump?

    So miscalled that one too. Next up, Le Pen for French president? Maybe MrTusk was correct in a non-hyperbolic way. This is the end of Western civilisation as we know it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.

    He probably said they were going to be huge too.. so that doesn't help balance the books any time soon.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    Incidentally, the Austrian presidential election is next month (adhesive permitting).

    When's the French one?

    Next April and May.

    but the LR primary is just 10 days away
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    So. That's Trump TV buggered, then?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Among the "guilty men" is Clinton who disgracefully treated the Presidency like a family heirloom.

    I've already heard some idiot talking about Michelle Obama running in 2020. This dynastic approach to politics is part of the problem, Michelle Obama running would be a sign that the political class still doesn't understand.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

    The only answer I have is a large number of Scandinavian migrants settled there - climate akin to Sweden or Finland apparently.
    That makes sense.

    The IN-OH-PA belt took a lot of German settlers.
    Yes, I believe at one point German stood some chance of becoming the language of the US?
    Wisconsin was settled by mainly German immigrants, Minnesota by Scandinavians.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Jobabob said:

    So only WilliamGlenn, MikeL and MonikerDiCanio predicted the correct result on eve of poll although many of us were on Trump and benefited. Even Plato backed off and refused to make a prediction/back a winner. Yet, overall, I suspect PBers profited simply because it was obvious Trump would win at 2am despite being at 6 on Betfair. Hope everyone got on.

    I guessed Trump 275 and Clinton 263 last night. I apologise for underestimating the Donald.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    RobD said:

    America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc.
    Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.

    Will he be invited here soon I wonder.
    Haven't you heard - the UK will be at the back of the queue.

    Has NH finished yet? on NYT the gap is 127 votes - not that it matters any more - except for spread betters.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
    That was pre-Trump.

    Le Pen may not be favourite, but Trump (and to a much lesser extent Brexit) legitimises a vote for her.

    With a gun to my head, I do not think she will win. But it must now be considered distinctly possible.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited November 2016
    Mr Song,

    "I can't understand why you Leavers and Trumpers still act like losers when you have won."

    I've had a few discussions with my son who's currently working in California. I've admitted to him that if I were American, I'd have probably abstained. He'd be a reluctant, hold-your-nose Clintonite.

    That's one of your problems (assuming you're a Hillary supporter) - you believe everyone else is an enemy. Not a winning look.

    I admit to voting Leave. It was worth it for the amusement.

    Vive Le Lincolnshire Libre!



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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067

    malcolmg said:


    The other winner from tonight is Farage.

    Perhaps we should send him to do a trade deal with the US?

    Be great if Donald comes to UK and wants Nigel to be first in line , leaves the Tories standing waiting with their tongues out
    Loser Eck will be burning with impotent rage this morning. Such a bitter slob.
    Not like him to back a bad un, though nice to see he is human and not infallible. He at least is honest to himself.
    I cannot wait to see the Westminster curs fawning and licking when they scurry over to Washington to beg "The Donald" for some crumbs from the special relationship.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    RobD said:

    Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.

    He probably said they were going to be huge too.. so that doesn't help balance the books any time soon.
    Huge, fantastic, and great seem to be his three favourite words.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. (My early view was that Trump would either win by a decent margin or pull out.) The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?
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    jonny83 said:

    Well the world just became a more dangerous place

    Really? You don't think unfettered immigration and playing soft on hard line Islam hasn't made the world an extremely dangerous place? That's one of the reasons 'we' voted Brexit and Trump.
    Interfering in other folks affairs in the middle east created hardline islam. Own it.


    I agree. That prick Tony Blair and other liberal metropolitan elites who opened Pandora's box and then flung wide the doors of the western world.

    The people have spoken. And we've had enough.
    Don't forget those liberal metropolitan pricks GWB & IDS.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    When I said Clinton would be closer to 300 than 400 I obviously meant 200 and 300
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    TGOHF said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
    The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

    Early morning hyperbole?

    Not really, it's true. The era of social progress is over. We now await to see the extent of damage a Trump presidency will cause.
    People have voted for politics that they actually want - not the politics the media tells them that they should want.

    Well, white America has voted for the politics it wants.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894

    Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.

    Almost Keynesian in fact.

    So he cuts taxes and spends a lot more and where does the money come from - borrowing to support an economy and a country trillions in debt ad deficit ?

    It's as bad as Hammond and May's idiotic notions of muscular infrastructure spending. For all the talk of austerity, we still have a huge issue with debt and having to manage that debt but apparently we're no longer interested in financial management.

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    Good morning all. So after a couple of hours sleep and my morning ablutions, I tuned in to Sky just in time for them to say that Hillary had conceded. Despite knowing it was going to happen, I stood stunned for a moment at what the American voters had actually gone and done.

    Has Canada started to build a wall yet?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
    Has there been any 1 on 1 polling since July?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Alistair said:

    When I said Clinton would be closer to 300 than 400 I obviously meant 200 and 300

    Who put those numbers right next to each other on the keyboard!
  • Options
    Mr. 1000, thanks. LR?

    I think the French system makes it very hard for Le Pen to win.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
    That was pre-Trump.

    Le Pen may not be favourite, but Trump (and to a much lesser extent Brexit) legitimises a vote for her.

    With a gun to my head, I do not think she will win. But it must now be considered distinctly possible.
    Everyone talks about spillover, but in the Spanish elections post Brexit there was a swing to the status quo.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    Dromedary said:

    OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?

    you can send me a PM and I will be happy to apologise and congratulate you heartily.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Dromedary said:

    OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. (My early view was that Trump would either win by a decent margin or pull out.) The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?

    You don't have to prove anything to anyone.

    Enjoy your winnings, sir!
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    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
    Has there been any 1 on 1 polling since July?
    I wont be betting against Le Pen after this.
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    Here's a scenario.

    Trump proves as bad as his campaign rhetoric suggests and does some of the things he says. An emboldened Putin takes areas he wants and turns a few other neighbouring states into vassals. Meanwhile, race riots erupt across the US.

    Will it happen? Probably not. Might it happen? Yes.

    What would the affect of this be on European countries and the EU itself? Would it divide the EU or actually force it together?

    Arguably, it would strengthen the UK's hand vis-a-vis the EU because they'd need our military and security services more than ever.
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    jonny83 said:

    Well the world just became a more dangerous place

    Really? You don't think unfettered immigration and playing soft on hard line Islam hasn't made the world an extremely dangerous place? That's one of the reasons 'we' voted Brexit and Trump.
    Interfering in other folks affairs in the middle east created hardline islam. Own it.


    I agree. That prick Tony Blair and other liberal metropolitan elites who opened Pandora's box and then flung wide the doors of the western world.

    The people have spoken. And we've had enough.
    Don't forget those liberal metropolitan pricks GWB & IDS.
    GWB, IDS and Blair created hardline Islam did they?

    IDS became Leader of the Tory Party on 13 September 2011 - two days after the attack that destroyed the Twin Towers.

    GWB became POTUS in 2011 long after the rise of Al'Qaeda even if before 9/11.

    Al'Qaeda existed well before even Blair came to power too.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    stodge said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

    And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

    Yet Trump's economic policy, such as it is, which is trickledown on steroids, isn't going to improve the lot of the working, lower middle and middle classes who (and I quite agree with you) have been left behind by economic, social, cultural and political developments in the past 20-30 years any more than there is a coherent argument that Brexit will improve things for the same groups over here.

    I get the anger, the frustration and the disillusionment and the desire for "change", I get all of that but it's nothing more than an unfocussed anger. Both May and Trump can talk the talk about speaking for the working classes and wanting to unify the country and all that but in truth they have no solutions and no ideas whatsoever and once that bankruptcy becomes evident, what then ?

    You can't run countries or sophisticated economies simply on the basis of being angry or blaming some "liberal metropolitan elite" (whatever than means). I've heard nothing meaningful that will genuinely and permanently improve the economic fortunes of the WWC or even the "squeezed middle".

    I agree with all that, May and Trump will be wolves in sheeps clothing for the WWC. Lots of flagwaving, but high paid factory jobs are not returning. There will be some hightech, automated factories, but steel and similar? No chance.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    malcolmg said:

    Dromedary said:

    OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?

    you can send me a PM and I will be happy to apologise and congratulate you heartily.
    Come on malcolm, I don't think that's necessary!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    Mr. 1000, thanks. LR?

    I think the French system makes it very hard for Le Pen to win.

    Les Republicains, first round.

    Polls suggest Juppe 38%, Sarkozy 30% in the first round, with Juppe picking up the bulk of the transfers and leading by about 20% in the second.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
    That was pre-Trump.

    Le Pen may not be favourite, but Trump (and to a much lesser extent Brexit) legitimises a vote for her.

    With a gun to my head, I do not think she will win. But it must now be considered distinctly possible.
    Everyone talks about spillover, but in the Spanish elections post Brexit there was a swing to the status quo.
    Because of the sight of the pound collapsing.

    And because, in a very pro-European country like Spain, the connection between Brexit and whatever the Spanish equiv of WWC is not there.

    But you can see a direct line between - philosophically - between Trump and Le Pen.
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    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    When I said Clinton would be closer to 300 than 400 I obviously meant 200 and 300

    Who put those numbers right next to each other on the keyboard!
    When I said Clinton would do very well, a landslide even possibly, what I meant to say was she was an out and out loser who would be thrashed.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    When I said Clinton would be closer to 300 than 400 I obviously meant 200 and 300

    Who put those numbers right next to each other on the keyboard!
    When I said Clinton would do very well, a landslide even possibly, what I meant to say was she was an out and out loser who would be thrashed.
    You mean to say those words aren't synonyms? :p
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

    Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
    Yes.

    (Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

    Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
    That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
    Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

    Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

    Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
    Has there been any 1 on 1 polling since July?
    Yes, lots.

    They all have the FN in the 28-30% range and have done for three years.
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    RobD said:

    Has Clinton still not said anything?

    Nope, she did concede to Trump over the phone, but nothing public.
    I find that astonishing.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Pong said:

    Dromedary said:

    OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. (My early view was that Trump would either win by a decent margin or pull out.) The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?

    You don't have to prove anything to anyone.

    Enjoy your winnings, sir!
    Many thanks, Pong!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Has Clinton still not said anything?

    Nope, she did concede to Trump over the phone, but nothing public.
    I find that astonishing.
    The Clinton camp must be utterly gutted. I would be totally shell-shocked.
This discussion has been closed.