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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Tru

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.
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    1996 Clinton wins WV by 15%
    2016 Clinton loses WV by 41%
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    She can't conceed till she knows what she's conceeding. If she's won the popular vote she's entitled to make a different tone of concession.
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    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    If Plato had not pasted so much nonsense and obviously false reports, people might have taken her more seriously.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,429
    We forgot that people cannot resist a button marked 'do not press'.
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    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    I hope she gloats forever - she's earned it.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pong said:

    @alistair ;

    HARRY ENTEN 2:20 AM
    Johnson is at just 3 percent of the national vote. That may go up slightly, but he’s likely not going to get close to 5 percent. In the end, most voters ended up choosing either Clinton or Trump.

    @Pong dont care about that dick, it's all about the Stein.
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    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    Feel sorry for the world but not her. Never her.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    and so we enter a new era: the Age of Unenlightenment

    Can't think of a single witty remark or humorous comment.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    Plato went all wobbly wobbly didn't she and went for a narrow Cliton win?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    AP says Trump is next POTUS.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    President-elect Trump. A few hours ago I thought there was basically no prospect of that.
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    The Guardian calls it for Trump.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MrsB said:

    and so we enter a new era: the Age of Unenlightenment

    Can't think of a single witty remark or humorous comment.

    Jacks ARSE Trumped?
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    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    If Plato had not pasted so much nonsense and obviously false reports, people might have taken her more seriously.
    It doesnt matter if what she pasted is nonsense or false, what matters is it is the same thing that those who voted trump were reading and therefore was worth factoring into your thinking
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    It's official, just had the guardian news app notification. Trump is the next president. We are through the looking glass people!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Oh ffsake Crooked Hillary is going to blow New Hampshire
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    IanB2 said:

    We forgot that people cannot resist a button marked 'do not press'.

    From Wikipedia:

    The Imp of the Perverse is a metaphor for the urge to do exactly the wrong thing in a given situation for the sole reason that it is possible for wrong to be done. The impulse is compared to an imp (a small demon) which leads an otherwise decent person into mischief.

    You may also be interested in...

    L’appel du vide, literally "the call of the void" is a French phrase used to refer to intellectual suicidal thoughts, or the urge to engage in self-destructive (suicidal) behaviors during everyday life. Examples include thinking about swerving in to the opposite lane while driving, or feeling the urge to jump off a cliff edge while standing on it. These thoughts are not accompanied by emotional distress.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh ffsake Crooked Hillary is going to blow New Hampshire

    Can trump get more than 300 EVs?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Come on Clinton, keep the invoice to SPIN down.
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    Pagan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    If Plato had not pasted so much nonsense and obviously false reports, people might have taken her more seriously.
    It doesnt matter if what she pasted is nonsense or false, what matters is it is the same thing that those who voted trump were reading and therefore was worth factoring into your thinking
    Agreed, and I did back Trump. But that was not what Plato was saying. She was right but for the wrong reasons.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pagan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    If Plato had not pasted so much nonsense and obviously false reports, people might have taken her more seriously.
    It doesnt matter if what she pasted is nonsense or false, what matters is it is the same thing that those who voted trump were reading and therefore was worth factoring into your thinking
    No, she claimed it was true. There is a big difference.

    I had no problem with the obscure news channel clips she posted, they were interesting but the obviously false libellous stuff is what she got really excited about in a wake up steeple manner.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    CNN: Trump will be speaking soon.
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    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    Plato certainly took some flak for defying conventional wisdom, but she stood by her guns and called it right. Respect.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385
    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    This is very much her fault. If she had taken the hint in 2008 and decided she wasn't able to be President, this whole disaster could have been avoided.

    It is her sense of entitlement, her arrogance and her incompetence, backed up by a complacent party in thrall to her self-estimation, that has led to Trump.

    Despite what has happened and bearing in mind what I said earlier about her humiliation, she deserves our scorn not our pity.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    Why?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    How has Arizona not been called yet, its MILES outside the MoE for Hillary to win.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    Why?
    'cause I'm a soppy git. :p
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    BBC news breaking

    HRC apparently concedes on phone....

    Reported on BBC news live
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC: Clinton has conceded.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Moses_ said:

    BBC news breaking

    HRC apparently concedes on phone....

    Reported on BBC news live

    Some big news coming up on CNN.. reporter wanted to double check she had it right before saying it on air...
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    Clinton has conceded CNN
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pagan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    If Plato had not pasted so much nonsense and obviously false reports, people might have taken her more seriously.
    It doesnt matter if what she pasted is nonsense or false, what matters is it is the same thing that those who voted trump were reading and therefore was worth factoring into your thinking
    Putin's trolls have excelled themselves, though I wonder if even Putin planned for this.

    Off to an LD party meeting tonight, at least we won't just be talking of Brexit!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Moses_ said:

    BBC news breaking

    HRC apparently concedes on phone....

    Reported on BBC news live

    CNN confirms.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Clinton concedes.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    We forgot that people cannot resist a button marked 'do not press'.

    If Corbyn wasnt Corbyn, his ideas could gain traction. Cons shouldnt assume that a far left labour is unelectable.
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    I would just like to mention that although they are painfully slow at calling anything, CNN's coverage has been brilliantly watchable, thoroughly analytical and professionally done. Beeb watch and learn.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    Plato certainly took some flak for defying conventional wisdom, but she stood by her guns and called it right. Respect.
    She also emitted a lot of flak as well.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited November 2016
    CNN flashed up "CLINTON CALLS TRUMP TO CONCEDE ELECTION".

    I misread it at first as "Clinton calls for Trump to concede election" - that would have been a serious level of arrogance!!
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    Marijuana legalisation in various states -- either medical or recreational -- may spread here. More importantly, it may spur further research by the drug companies, who together with the agribusinesses will soon dominate the trade.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Donald Trump, the 45th President of the USA!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    I would just like to mention that although they are painfully slow at calling anything, CNN's coverage has been brilliantly watchable, thoroughly analytical and professionally done. Beeb watch and learn.

    Agreed!
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    I thought this might happen.

    The right is now in full control of America. Their power is as absolute as you can get in a democracy. They now have to deliver. Look out for what happens when they don't. It's going to get very nasty.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    This is very much her fault. If she had taken the hint in 2008 and decided she wasn't able to be President, this whole disaster could have been avoided.

    It is her sense of entitlement, her arrogance and her incompetence, backed up by a complacent party in thrall to her self-estimation, that has led to Trump.

    Despite what has happened and bearing in mind what I said earlier about her humiliation, she deserves our scorn not our pity.
    She's certainly not been a good choice as candidate, but these results show a pro-trumpist policy vote (even if they dislike Trump himself) more than anti Hillary. Any mainstream democrat would have lost this. Bernie may have been more competitive but still think he would have lost.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Sandpit said:

    Donald Trump, the 45th President of the USA!

    Holy crap!
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    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    This is very much her fault. If she had taken the hint in 2008 and decided she wasn't able to be President, this whole disaster could have been avoided.

    It is her sense of entitlement, her arrogance and her incompetence, backed up by a complacent party in thrall to her self-estimation, that has led to Trump.

    Despite what has happened and bearing in mind what I said earlier about her humiliation, she deserves our scorn not our pity.
    Indeed.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I would just like to mention that although they are painfully slow at calling anything, CNN's coverage has been brilliantly watchable, thoroughly analytical and professionally done. Beeb watch and learn.

    I agree, their coverage was far better than the BBC.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    CNN projecting AZ for Trump.. but only at 268 at CNN (they haven't called PA).
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    This is very much her fault. If she had taken the hint in 2008 and decided she wasn't able to be President, this whole disaster could have been avoided.

    It is her sense of entitlement, her arrogance and her incompetence, backed up by a complacent party in thrall to her self-estimation, that has led to Trump.

    Despite what has happened and bearing in mind what I said earlier about her humiliation, she deserves our scorn not our pity.
    Given that Obama's legacy will amount to zero you could equally make the case that it was his premature candidacy that set in train the whole process. Clinton should have been the candidate in 2008.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    What an exciting 7 hours.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    Why?
    'cause I'm a soppy git. :p
    Nah. To lead you need to serve, to love and to understand your people. Clinton did none of those. To refer to even one American citizen as "deplorable" rules her unfit for any public office in my view.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Hillary has called to concede, but didn't have the gumption to stand up in front of her own supporters and say it in public yet.
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    I don't have the time at present to look through the previous threads so can I ask what was the 'Sunderland moment' and when did it happen ?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Clinton has conceded.

    Were you up for Trump?
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    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    This is very much her fault. If she had taken the hint in 2008 and decided she wasn't able to be President, this whole disaster could have been avoided.

    It is her sense of entitlement, her arrogance and her incompetence, backed up by a complacent party in thrall to her self-estimation, that has led to Trump.

    Despite what has happened and bearing in mind what I said earlier about her humiliation, she deserves our scorn not our pity.
    Not just Hillary's. Remember Trump first had to defeat the scions of the Republican establishment, including Jeb Bush.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited November 2016
    Trump!!
    well.. Pence.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,551
    Sandpit said:

    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
    Trump won it by 4%. Unless it's widespread, that wont change anything.
    4% isn't a proper margin to decide anything.
    They need to have a second referendum to find out exactly which version of Trump everyone thought they were voting for.
    :D
    LOL
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I thought this might happen.

    The right is now in full control of America. Their power is as absolute as you can get in a democracy. They now have to deliver. Look out for what happens when they don't. It's going to get very nasty.

    It is a very protectionalist and isolationist right, not the right of Reagan but rather that of the 1920's.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Don't know about anyone else but I think it's going to be fascinating to see how much of a popular vote lead Clinton ends up getting.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ms Plato

    Step forward and take PB ermine.....

    You are Legend.

    :wink:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    US election totals latest
    Popular vote Trump 48.1% Clinton 47.2%
    Electoral College Trump 268 Clinton 215
    http://edition.cnn.com/election
    CNN reporting Hillary Clinton just conceded to Donald Trump, looks like Trump is the next US President after another bad night for most pollsters. VP elect Pence now coming up to Trump HQ to introduce Donald Trump
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    AndyJS said:

    Don't know about anyone else but I think it's going to be fascinating to see how much of a popular vote lead Clinton ends up getting.

    None at the moment
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited November 2016
    If Trump wins MI, he will get to 306.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569

    I don't have the time at present to look through the previous threads so can I ask what was the 'Sunderland moment' and when did it happen ?

    Tampa Florida.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2016

    I don't have the time at present to look through the previous threads so can I ask what was the 'Sunderland moment' and when did it happen ?

    From Speedy on the Maginot line thread:

    1.Beware the polls when they get estimated turnout really wrong.
    2.The Sunderland moment of the night was Tampa and Virginia.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    I bet Pence can't believe it!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I don't have the time at present to look through the previous threads so can I ask what was the 'Sunderland moment' and when did it happen ?

    Florida. The huge turnaround in the vote there made @rcs1000 completely reverse his position
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    This is very much her fault. If she had taken the hint in 2008 and decided she wasn't able to be President, this whole disaster could have been avoided.

    It is her sense of entitlement, her arrogance and her incompetence, backed up by a complacent party in thrall to her self-estimation, that has led to Trump.

    Despite what has happened and bearing in mind what I said earlier about her humiliation, she deserves our scorn not our pity.
    Given that Obama's legacy will amount to zero you could equally make the case that it was his premature candidacy that set in train the whole process. Clinton should have been the candidate in 2008.
    Do you honestly think she would have beaten John McCain? Because I don't - not even with Palin on the ticket.
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    I thought this might happen.

    The right is now in full control of America. Their power is as absolute as you can get in a democracy. They now have to deliver. Look out for what happens when they don't. It's going to get very nasty.

    It is a very protectionalist and isolationist right, not the right of Reagan but rather that of the 1920's.

    Yep - and it will fail. But it will go down fighting. The US is not going to be a nice place to be for the next few years.

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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    I'm surprised but not entirely shocked. What we must now hope is that this will herald a massive reset of the Political landscape, as Brexit has begun to do here.

    Foreign policy, fiscal policy, both should now be up for grabs. Neither have been good for the West during the 'Neo Con' years, the UK included. The carnage in the Middle East is a message in itself.

    Hopefully, despite Trump being a terrible candidate, it will drive both parties to re-evaluate their positions and come up with some fresh thinking.
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    So the US establishment have now learnt what the British establishment learnt in June:

    working class votes are important
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    Well that was the second " where were you when ? " moment of the year. Diana, 9/11, Brexit and now Trump. Two lifetime defining moments in a matter of months. Congratulations again to those that called it correctly. The West is in real trouble.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    notme said:

    IanB2 said:

    We forgot that people cannot resist a button marked 'do not press'.

    If Corbyn wasnt Corbyn, his ideas could gain traction. Cons shouldnt assume that a far left labour is unelectable.
    As I've been saying since his re-election. People have been massively underestimating Corbyn: he's only on the leadership ballot as a sop to the left. He won't last a week. The party will desert him. Etc, etc. Heck, I've been guilty of some of those.

    Yet he has survived.

    I still wouldn't say he's likely to win, but he's certainly outplayed the rivals in his own party so far.

    For the record, I think his main purpose is to change the Labour party so that the leader after him (hopefully more electable) will be running on a leftist platform. But that doesn't mean he won't take any opportunity if it arises.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385
    RobD said:

    I bet Pence can't believe it!

    Given what's coming up for Trump Pence is probably writing his inauguration speech!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    I bet Pence can't believe it!

    I'm not sure he ever thought this was a speech he'd ever have to deliver.

    Here comes the man!!!
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    So the US establishment have now learnt what the British establishment learnt in June:

    working class votes are important

    Yep
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited November 2016
    President elect Trump arrives on Trump HQ stage to 'Airforce One' soundtrack accompanied by Melania and his family
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,551

    Pagan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    If Plato had not pasted so much nonsense and obviously false reports, people might have taken her more seriously.
    It doesnt matter if what she pasted is nonsense or false, what matters is it is the same thing that those who voted trump were reading and therefore was worth factoring into your thinking
    Putin's trolls have excelled themselves, though I wonder if even Putin planned for this.

    Off to an LD party meeting tonight, at least we won't just be talking of Brexit!
    You're not really going with Putin are you?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    You gotta feel sorry for Clinton.

    No.

    This is very much her fault. If she had taken the hint in 2008 and decided she wasn't able to be President, this whole disaster could have been avoided.

    It is her sense of entitlement, her arrogance and her incompetence, backed up by a complacent party in thrall to her self-estimation, that has led to Trump.

    Despite what has happened and bearing in mind what I said earlier about her humiliation, she deserves our scorn not our pity.
    Given that Obama's legacy will amount to zero you could equally make the case that it was his premature candidacy that set in train the whole process. Clinton should have been the candidate in 2008.
    Do you honestly think she would have beaten John McCain? Because I don't - not even with Palin on the ticket.
    If she'd lost the general in 2008 she wouldn't have been running in 2016.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    HYUFD said:

    President elect Trump arrives on Trump HQ stage to 'Airforce One' soundtrack accompanied by Melania and his family

    Maybe he'll just keep using the Trump jet!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    CNN calls it for Trump too
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MrsB said:

    and so we enter a new era: the Age of Unenlightenment

    Can't think of a single witty remark or humorous comment.

    Situation normal, then.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    CNN calls PA for Trump
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    PA
    Projected for Trump
    BBC news breaking
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    Well colour me shocked. 158-3. Didn't expect to wake up to that news.
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    Here he comes. This is going to be yuge.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    "Donald Trump Elected US President" written at the bottom of the CNN feed.. almost surreal.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    God he does gracious.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    Trump congratulates Hillary on a 'hard fought campaign' and says 'we owe her a debt for her service' and for 'America to come together'
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Trump really is doing the Thatcher style unity speech.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Hats off to Plato.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2016
    Trump says live he has call from HRC conceding

    It's over
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I don't have the time at present to look through the previous threads so can I ask what was the 'Sunderland moment' and when did it happen ?

    First indications that Leave was going to
    RobD said:

    I bet Pence can't believe it!

    How many others who turned down Trump must be feeling now! Pence must be in with a decent shot in 2024 if not 2020
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,429
    At least trump is trying to say the right things
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    He's trying very gamely to drone out the odd calls to lock her up...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    Pagan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    If Plato had not pasted so much nonsense and obviously false reports, people might have taken her more seriously.
    It doesnt matter if what she pasted is nonsense or false, what matters is it is the same thing that those who voted trump were reading and therefore was worth factoring into your thinking
    Putin's trolls have excelled themselves, though I wonder if even Putin planned for this.

    Off to an LD party meeting tonight, at least we won't just be talking of Brexit!
    You're not really going with Putin are you?
    Why not? There's certainly a point to be made with it.
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    Trump may just be able to be a good president
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

    Plato went all wobbly wobbly didn't she and went for a narrow Cliton win?
    I confirmed my opinion of months on Trump winning as a certainty the other week when that Jonah ,McTernan, went across to campaign for Hilary. That was the coup de grace for her.
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    Alistair said:

    I don't have the time at present to look through the previous threads so can I ask what was the 'Sunderland moment' and when did it happen ?

    Florida. The huge turnaround in the vote there made @rcs1000 completely reverse his position
    Florida was the Sunderland moment, what's the Newcastle confirmation it was not a one off?
This discussion has been closed.