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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Tru

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Trump’s extraordinary victory

The WH2016. Listen to @keiranpedley & @leobarasi analyse the dramatic outcome in latest PB Polling Matters podcast https://t.co/omXZ2HSWbu

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    First like Trump
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Second, like Clinton!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Gonna be huge, gonna be great.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    where's 619 ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    FPT
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Isn't everyone glad we have a SERIOUS Prime Minister who doesn't shoot her mouth off about foreign Presidential candidates, as opposed to the grandstanding twat we just got rid of.

    Yes, also note that Merkel, despite being personally criticised by Trump, has kept her own counsel.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    Gonna be huge, gonna be great.

    Jina watch out!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    Fifth, like Clinton would have been in a fair primary.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,997
    ydoethur said:

    Andrew said:

    ydoethur said:



    You said he won in 1928...

    Oh jeez. Brain not working - been up 36 hours.

    Anyway, the comparison was meant with Harding, since at the time he was widely thought to be unsuitable for the office (as so clearly is Trump), on top of which he tends to be put at or near the bottom of those occasional "worst ever Presidents" surveys.
    Fair enough. Seems a very good comparison to me then.

    Hope you can get some sleep soon.
    Although on 1928, Hoover was the last businessman who'd never held elective office (he was a cabinet minister under Coolidge) to be elected president. That didn't turn out well either.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    ydoethur said:

    Fifth, like Clinton would have been in a fair primary.

    Heh ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Once again, to be fair to me, I did say if trump was getting 13% of the AA vote then he would win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    david_herdson said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andrew said:

    ydoethur said:



    You said he won in 1928...

    Oh jeez. Brain not working - been up 36 hours.

    Anyway, the comparison was meant with Harding, since at the time he was widely thought to be unsuitable for the office (as so clearly is Trump), on top of which he tends to be put at or near the bottom of those occasional "worst ever Presidents" surveys.
    Fair enough. Seems a very good comparison to me then.

    Hope you can get some sleep soon.
    Although on 1928, Hoover was the last businessman who'd never held elective office (he was a cabinet minister under Coolidge) to be elected president. That didn't turn out well either.
    True. Still think he did better than Trump will.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Are we about to get Trump's victory speech calling for national unity, while the crowd is shouting "Lock Her Up"?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    Not conceding....

    She is making a big mistake.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Hillary in her bed?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Clinton's campaign manager has just said they're still holding out for victory.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,579
    Podesta on stage at Hillary 'victory' rally telling everyone to go home, she's not coming.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    Not conceding....

    She is making a big mistake.
    "She is not done yet"... wonder what that means?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In 2012 Obama's data team were calling precincts down to two decimal place accuracy.

    Was this a data fail they never saw coming or did they put a brave face on a iceberg they saw weeks out and couldn't steer away from?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,024
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    Not conceding....

    She is making a big mistake.
    Oh no. Please Hillary, time to throw in the towel now...
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    MyBurningEars said:

    Are we about to get Trump's victory speech calling for national unity, while the crowd is shouting "Lock Her Up"?

    In fact, given HRC chickening out of a gracious defeat speech (or perhaps, a legal challenge) he might be better to put it on ice. Do it somewhere more stately.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    Trump was boasting not complaining ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
    Trump won it by 4%. Unless it's widespread, that wont change anything.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Last time Repubs got 13% of African Americans was Reagan in 1980.

    Bush hit 11% in 04 and Dole got 12% in 96.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,894
    Mme Le Pen pour President?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    Trump said he wouldn't concede if it was close, so why should Clinton?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Alanbrooke said:

    where's 619 ?

    His contract has expired?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    ???????

    Bob Smithson assures everyone that Clinton has won.

    Trump at over 11 on Betfair

    And I wake up to this

    Stock markets are crashing

    Its snowing heavily

    Is it the end of the world ?????
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Trump just gone out to 1.04.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Alistair said:

    In 2012 Obama's data team were calling precincts down to two decimal place accuracy.

    Was this a data fail they never saw coming or did they put a brave face on a iceberg they saw weeks out and couldn't steer away from?

    A late shift they didn't have time to react to? Comey's letter may go down as the new archetype of an October surprise.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    numbertwelve said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    Not conceding....

    She is making a big mistake.
    Oh no. Please Hillary, time to throw in the towel now...
    Isn't the form that she phones Trump first?
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    Certainly the first US Presidential to be won by the Russians :o
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,579
    MyBurningEars said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Are we about to get Trump's victory speech calling for national unity, while the crowd is shouting "Lock Her Up"?

    In fact, given HRC chickening out of a gracious defeat speech (or perhaps, a legal challenge) he might be better to put it on ice. Do it somewhere more stately.
    No chance. This is Donald Trump. He's gonna wait for PA and MI or WI, then come out shouting.

    Hillary's camp gives the impression that they're planning on finding a way to challenge something somewhere.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    edited November 2016
    AndyJS said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    Trump said he wouldn't concede if it was close, so why should Clinton?
    Because she attacked him for saying that?

    And let's be honest, this isn't close. She might swing 1 state on shock late votes, but she needs several 100/1 shots in conjunction now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    I'd be worried if I was in the DoJ right now.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    MyBurningEars said:

    Are we about to get Trump's victory speech calling for national unity, while the crowd is shouting "Lock Her Up"?

    "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony" ?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Is Clinton still looking good for the popular vote?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,130
    Clinton attacks Trump for refusing to say if he'd concede a defeat. AND now refuses to concede her defeat.

    What a hypocrite
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Is it possible there could be large numbers of absentee ballots not counted yet like in 2000.

    ie all precincts could have reported with some votes actually still to be counted?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Not conceding looks like a serious mis-step; it paints her as equivalent to Trump. But maybe they have their reasons.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    Sandpit said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Are we about to get Trump's victory speech calling for national unity, while the crowd is shouting "Lock Her Up"?

    In fact, given HRC chickening out of a gracious defeat speech (or perhaps, a legal challenge) he might be better to put it on ice. Do it somewhere more stately.
    No chance. This is Donald Trump. He's gonna wait for PA and MI or WI, then come out shouting.

    Hillary's camp gives the impression that they're planning on finding a way to challenge something somewhere.
    Maybe she's just not in a fit state to speak tonight.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,024
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    numbertwelve said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    Not conceding....

    She is making a big mistake.
    Oh no. Please Hillary, time to throw in the towel now...
    Isn't the form that she phones Trump first?
    Her campaign are sending the crowd home so she isn't planning on giving a concession speech tonight. I'd suggest that probably means she's not conceding tonight either.
  • PaganPagan Posts: 259
    not_on_fire said:

    Is Clinton still looking good for the popular vote?

    1.2 mill behind so no not exceptionally good
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I am tired but I think if Stein stays at 1.4% in California I salvage something from this as she will be sub 1% nationally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    This is a very intense personal humiliation and rejection for her. Losing must be bad enough, losing to Donald Trump will be unbearable.

    The thing is, she will never admit she is to blame (as we saw over her emails where she spread the blame for her own culpability as far around as possible). She will probably continue to believe that it was Trump who somehow stole her birthright to be the first female president, which will likely have a severe negative effect on her health (as with Greeley in 1872).

    But the fact is, she did not deserve to be that historic candidate. She just was not good enough. Tonight has shown in truly brutal relief just how much she was hated, and tainted.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    corporeal said:

    Last time Repubs got 13% of African Americans was Reagan in 1980.

    Bush hit 11% in 04 and Dole got 12% in 96.

    Really ????

    Trump got 13% of Black votes ?

    JackW - what a f'cking ARSE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    not_on_fire said:

    Is Clinton still looking good for the popular vote?

    I hope so

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Pagan said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Is Clinton still looking good for the popular vote?

    1.2 mill behind so no not exceptionally good
    But still approx 60% of CA votes to be counted?
  • Robert_Of_SheffieldRobert_Of_Sheffield Posts: 207
    Elsewhere, I'm seeing a lot of amateur speculation about recounts in multiple states, possibly delaying the final result into December. Is this remotely plausible?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Popular vote: Trump still +1.2m

    California: Clinton + 1.2m with 39% in.

    So looks like Clinton but not 100% certain.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    maaarsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    Trump said he wouldn't concede if it was close, so why should Clinton?
    Because she attacked him for saying that?

    And let's be honest, this isn't close. She might swing 1 state on shock late votes, but she needs several 100/1 shots in conjunction now.
    She could win the popular vote by more than a million. That would be unprecedented.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
    Trump won it by 4%. Unless it's widespread, that wont change anything.
    Think bigger, evidence of Russian agents, document trails of payoffs. Go grand.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    another_richard said:

    corporeal said:

    Last time Repubs got 13% of African Americans was Reagan in 1980.

    Bush hit 11% in 04 and Dole got 12% in 96.

    Really ????

    Trump got 13% of Black votes ?

    JackW - what a f'cking ARSE.
    I can't confirm that, people were posting in the previous thread so I looked up the history.

    We won't really know if that's true for a while as the calculate the exit polls properly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,980
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    In 2012 Obama's data team were calling precincts down to two decimal place accuracy.

    Was this a data fail they never saw coming or did they put a brave face on a iceberg they saw weeks out and couldn't steer away from?

    Or: they were right for some of the wrong reasons last time, and they got caught out this time. Or the fundamentals of the electorate have changed, invalidating the models.

    That's a big problem with polling on things like elections: you very rarely get data to alter your models, and if the models match the data, you cannot be sure they matched for the correct reasons.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    corporeal said:

    Alistair said:

    In 2012 Obama's data team were calling precincts down to two decimal place accuracy.

    Was this a data fail they never saw coming or did they put a brave face on a iceberg they saw weeks out and couldn't steer away from?

    A late shift they didn't have time to react to? Comey's letter may go down as the new archetype of an October surprise.
    The FBI letter, and Fox reporting it was certain Hillary would be arrested (although they later apologised).

    As the podcast mentions, there seems to be yet another polling failure with modelling the electorate, and as Speedy of pb said on the last thread, a big red flag is when the polls get turnout wrong.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    maaarsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    Trump said he wouldn't concede if it was close, so why should Clinton?
    Because she attacked him for saying that?

    And let's be honest, this isn't close. She might swing 1 state on shock late votes, but she needs several 100/1 shots in conjunction now.
    She could win the popular vote by more than a million. That would be unprecedented.
    I think she is waiting for the popular vote so she can give the right speech depending on which way it falls.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    AndyJS said:

    maaarsh said:

    AndyJS said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    Trump said he wouldn't concede if it was close, so why should Clinton?
    Because she attacked him for saying that?

    And let's be honest, this isn't close. She might swing 1 state on shock late votes, but she needs several 100/1 shots in conjunction now.
    She could win the popular vote by more than a million. That would be unprecedented.
    irrelevant

    Leave won by 1 million and that doesnt count :-)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,579
    MikeL said:

    Trump just gone out to 1.04.

    That's free money.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Getting tasty on CNN...punch up coming up!
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    The old rule: the taller candidate wins. Should be a long time before we see another female nominee.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,980
    edited November 2016
    Off-topic:

    Tram crash in London. Police say it is a serious incident.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37919658
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump arriving at his campaign HQ.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    ydoethur said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    This is a very intense personal humiliation and rejection for her. Losing must be bad enough, losing to Donald Trump will be unbearable.

    The thing is, she will never admit she is to blame (as we saw over her emails where she spread the blame for her own culpability as far around as possible). She will probably continue to believe that it was Trump who somehow stole her birthright to be the first female president, which will likely have a severe negative effect on her health (as with Greeley in 1872).

    But the fact is, she did not deserve to be that historic candidate. She just was not good enough. Tonight has shown in truly brutal relief just how much she was hated, and tainted.
    Indeed.

    Hopefully this will put an end to the dynastic presidency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    another_richard said:

    ydoethur said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    This is a very intense personal humiliation and rejection for her. Losing must be bad enough, losing to Donald Trump will be unbearable.

    The thing is, she will never admit she is to blame (as we saw over her emails where she spread the blame for her own culpability as far around as possible). She will probably continue to believe that it was Trump who somehow stole her birthright to be the first female president, which will likely have a severe negative effect on her health (as with Greeley in 1872).

    But the fact is, she did not deserve to be that historic candidate. She just was not good enough. Tonight has shown in truly brutal relief just how much she was hated, and tainted.
    Indeed.

    Hopefully this will put an end to the dynastic presidency.
    Yeah, didn't they have a war about that earlier? :p
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeL said:

    Trump just gone out to 1.04.

    Probably punters cashing in before they need to leave for work.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pagan said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Is Clinton still looking good for the popular vote?

    1.2 mill behind so no not exceptionally good
    Yes: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

    Just look at the % to come on the West Coast
  • PaganPagan Posts: 259
    A note of caution tonight maybe to all those convinced that J Corbyn will never win an election here, I personally hope they are right but right now after the Trump win....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    another_richard said:

    ydoethur said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    This is a very intense personal humiliation and rejection for her. Losing must be bad enough, losing to Donald Trump will be unbearable.

    The thing is, she will never admit she is to blame (as we saw over her emails where she spread the blame for her own culpability as far around as possible). She will probably continue to believe that it was Trump who somehow stole her birthright to be the first female president, which will likely have a severe negative effect on her health (as with Greeley in 1872).

    But the fact is, she did not deserve to be that historic candidate. She just was not good enough. Tonight has shown in truly brutal relief just how much she was hated, and tainted.
    Indeed.

    Hopefully this will put an end to the dynastic presidency.
    Yeah, didn't they have a war about that earlier? :p
    The one George Bush started ?
  • PaganPagan Posts: 259
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pagan said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Is Clinton still looking good for the popular vote?

    1.2 mill behind so no not exceptionally good
    Yes: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

    Just look at the % to come on the West Coast
    True but Trump has been 1.2 mill ahead through the counting of the 40% they already did and she doesnt show any sign of catching up so....
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
    Trump won it by 4%. Unless it's widespread, that wont change anything.
    4% isn't a proper margin to decide anything.
    They need to have a second referendum to find out exactly which version of Trump everyone thought they were voting for.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/796206332277915648
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Olivia Nuzzi
    @Olivianuzzi

    Asked if the Trump campaign internal polling was as off as the rest of the polling, Sarah Huckabee tells me it was.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pagan said:

    A note of caution tonight maybe to all those convinced that J Corbyn will never win an election here, I personally hope they are right but right now after the Trump win....

    Certainly there is not much point in Labour moderates trying to use opinion poll evidence of Corbyn's unelectability against him -- his supporters already did not believe the polls. Now no-one will.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Pagan said:

    A note of caution tonight maybe to all those convinced that J Corbyn will never win an election here, I personally hope they are right but right now after the Trump win....

    It's possible, we've already seen in by-elections that Labours vote has held up. Trump also won despite a divided Republican Party, so that may not stop Corbyn.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JosiasJessop said:

    Off-topic:

    Tram crash in London. Police say it is a serious incident.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37919658

    PC friend of mine posted on FB:

    Folks please avoid Croydon if possible this morning to allow emergency crews through following a horrific tram crash many fatalities and injuries so please avoid the Addiscombe area if possible
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ydoethur said:

    maaarsh said:

    Very undignified, clinging on like a holed up gunman with no way out now.

    This is a very intense personal humiliation and rejection for her. Losing must be bad enough, losing to Donald Trump will be unbearable.

    The thing is, she will never admit she is to blame (as we saw over her emails where she spread the blame for her own culpability as far around as possible). She will probably continue to believe that it was Trump who somehow stole her birthright to be the first female president, which will likely have a severe negative effect on her health (as with Greeley in 1872).

    But the fact is, she did not deserve to be that historic candidate. She just was not good enough. Tonight has shown in truly brutal relief just how much she was hated, and tainted.
    Spot on Mr ydoethur, - can’t add anything more to that.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
    Trump won it by 4%. Unless it's widespread, that wont change anything.
    4% isn't a proper margin to decide anything.
    They need to have a second referendum to find out exactly which version of Trump everyone thought they were voting for.
    Trump means Trump, and we're, errr...
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    For what it's worth, the New York Times projects her with a 1.3ish edge in the popular vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,906
    Pong said:

    Olivia Nuzzi
    @Olivianuzzi

    Asked if the Trump campaign internal polling was as off as the rest of the polling, Sarah Huckabee tells me it was.

    CNN said Trump's team's analytics told them they were winning in Wisconsin but they didn't believe it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I just can't believe TSE used my comparison to the Maginot line!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,579
    Kevin_McCandless said:

    For what it's worth, the New York Times projects her with a 1.3ish edge in the popular vote.

    As long as she wins the PV by 0.1-5% I'm happy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    538: Trump won one of the ME electoral votes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,259
    Clinton foundation - sorry no refunds folks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,579
    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
    Trump won it by 4%. Unless it's widespread, that wont change anything.
    4% isn't a proper margin to decide anything.
    They need to have a second referendum to find out exactly which version of Trump everyone thought they were voting for.
    :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    So, will Trump run again in 2020? :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chair of Clinton campaign giving a speech....

    but it doesn't sound like a concession though. "Nothing more to say tonight"
    Could this be the first election where both sides claim it's been rigged against them?
    North Carolina law suits, evidence of vote machine tampering, it's only getting started.
    Trump won it by 4%. Unless it's widespread, that wont change anything.
    4% isn't a proper margin to decide anything.
    They need to have a second referendum to find out exactly which version of Trump everyone thought they were voting for.
    Can I subject that to a judicial review?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    This morning there was no 'tweet of the day' ahead of the Radio 4 Today programme: even the birds have stopped singing.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    2016 has something of 1848 about it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,579
    JosiasJessop said:

    Off-topic:

    Tram crash in London. Police say it is a serious incident.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37919658

    That doesn't look good. Rumours that tram overturned.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    @alistair ;

    HARRY ENTEN 2:20 AM
    Johnson is at just 3 percent of the national vote. That may go up slightly, but he’s likely not going to get close to 5 percent. In the end, most voters ended up choosing either Clinton or Trump.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,008
    Well I'm glad I didn't stay up for that, but thinking I ought to have stayed under the duvet...

    Congratulations to those who ignored conventional wisdom and bet on Trump. Commiserations to the rest of the world.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    CNN projecting WI for Trump!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,024
    CNN call WI for Trump.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Now at 257 with CNN.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Does this mean that David Milliband will come scuttling back to the UK and try to re-enter British politics?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,579
    Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.
This discussion has been closed.