politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence

Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.

Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.

Black_Rook said:

Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.

Suddenly it all makes sense. It's a little bit like the UK. One side of the argument is broadly united, the other divided.

In this case, the united, social conservative half is arguably the minority, but the main progressive party haemorrhages votes to splinter factions. For Green and Libertarian, read Lib Dem and SNP.

I'm probably indulging in oversimplification here, but you get where I'm coming from?

Paristonda said:

Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.

Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.

Pre-Brexit -- Corbyn, the SNP and almost independence.

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Yep National polls were correct enough.

MaxPB said:

Alanbrooke said:

Once again the financial markets call it wrong

Betting markets and polls (and Jack's ARSE!).

Kudos to Rod Crosby who called it for Trump months ago

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

JosiasJessop said:

Paristonda said:

Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.

Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.

It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?

It looks like we are about to find out!

Now Trump has to deliver. Like Leave.

Nigel Farage must seem like a god to the Trump team.

Trump 48k up in PA with 97%

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

A couple of points isn't a huge fail.

JosiasJessop said:

Paristonda said:

Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.

Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.

It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?

Compete. For Britain we need 3 things:
1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment
2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British
3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.

Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse

Black_Rook said:

Black_Rook said:

Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.

Suddenly it all makes sense. It's a little bit like the UK. One side of the argument is broadly united, the other divided.

In this case, the united, social conservative half is arguably the minority, but the main progressive party haemorrhages votes to splinter factions. For Green and Libertarian, read Lib Dem and SNP.

I'm probably indulging in oversimplification here, but you get where I'm coming from?

At GE2015, Con + UKIP was a majority, UK-wide (just!)

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania/president

In PA both Blair and Cameron voted for Trump

as did Clinton

The general impression I get is that Clinton and her supporters were too confident. Their claims reminded me of the article that used to keep getting posted here, about how Brown's Labour party couldn't possibly lose in 2010.

Basically the Clinton camp seemed to be arrogantly assuming the election was theirs by right, an attitude that probably helped alienate many swing voters.

Frank Luntz and Nate Silver must be feeling a bit silly this morning.

The polling company with the "who will your neighbours vote for?" question may have been on to something.

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

A couple of points isn't a huge fail.

National polling was fine

The rust belt polling utterly failed though.

Pulpstar said:

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

A couple of points isn't a huge fail.

National polling was fine

The rust belt polling utterly failed though.

Yeah, he won OH by almost 10 points!

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

Paristonda said:

Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.

Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.

It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?

Compete. For Britain we need 3 things:
1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment
2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British
3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.

Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse

No. That won't do. You won twice now with Brexit and now Trump. Congratulations. But you're in charge now. You have to stop Gobalisation like you promised. We'll be monitorng progress.

White man speak with forked tongue. Well to pollsters he does.

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

Paristonda said:

Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.

Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.

It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?

Compete. For Britain we need 3 things:
1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment
2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British
3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.

Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse

An interesting set of ?policies?, thanks. The problem is I think they're pretty much unworkable, at least for a country our size. That's not being defeatist; it's a sign of how interconnected the world has become.

It may well be more possible for the US.

Edit: besides, that does nothing about globalisation. It may offset he worst effects of it, but it's not 'anti-globalisation'; especially if a more prosperous UK increases exports.

This is the funniest political statement since Michael Gove accused Boris Johnson of lacking judgement:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AshleySemlerBBC/status/796230889558732800

Crooked Hillary 1000 ahead in New Hampshire now

Pulpstar said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.

Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.

Still can't believe that Hillary didn't set foot in the state during the campaign.

AndyJS said:

Paristonda said:

Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.

Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.

I can understand why people are angry and upset but there isn't really anything that can be done about globalisation. Trump's supporters are probably going to end up being disappointed with him before long.

What is the analysis here.

I mean if Comey doesn't send his letter does Clinton win?

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.

Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.

Still can't believe that Hillary didn't set foot in the state during the campaign.

This election has overturned a number of previous assumptions as to what's needed to win, to put it mildly.

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.

Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.

Still can't believe that Hillary didn't set foot in the state during the campaign.

Touch complacement, just assumed it would fall Democrat.

An interesting point to note is that the polls tightened towards Trump, both statewide and nationally - but barely any had him ahead, so it was less noted..

Hillary looking good in Minnesota

Trump up 59k in PA, still at 97% in.

YellowSubmarine said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Compete. For Britain we need 3 things:
1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment
2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British
3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.

Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse

No. That won't do. You won twice now with Brexit and now Trump. Congratulations. By you're in charge now. You have to stop Gobalisation like you promised. We'll be monitorng progress.

People both like and dislike globalisation. Globalisation can't be stopped entirely. Nor can you cherry-pick so that we only get the good aspects of globalisation (access to cheap goods and services, we all get richer) and completely avoid the bad (various forms of social and economic dislocation). But it is possible to prioritise what voters desire.

One example with respect to Brexit: mass unskilled immigration with no government power to limit numbers is an aspect of globalisation that most people are not entirely happy with. Implementing it was a poor policy choice (on the behalf of the EU, or the EU national leaders who had the power to stop it) and it may well prove to be one of the things that brings down the EU as we know it. Post-Brexit it becomes a policy choice for the UK government, or whatever's left of it.

It's incorrect to think there are zero policy choices and nothing anybody can do about anything. There is a limited policy space, and there are certainly costs associated with policies, but it's not beyond the wit of government to change the face of globalisation and its lived experience within the UK.

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

OUT said:

White man speak with forked tongue. Well to pollsters he does.

Biggest polling failure = Wisconsin, probably the most white Democrat unexpected Trumpsters too.

Survey Monkey had Trump ahead in Wisconsin by 1% on Saturday

They had Hillary winning 51-44 all the time nationally.

Pundit bewildered by Trump's win because Twitter was always lambasting him.

To quote Talleyrand, they have learned nothing...

I thought he would lose, but that was hardly an indicator of popularity or not.

Speedy said:

RobD said:

Trump up 59k in PA, still at 97% in.

Call the d@mn thing already, it's morning.

I need to go to bed as I have to be at work early tomorrow!

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/796220757571411968

Debatable if they have the WH!

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/796220757571411968

Debatable if they have the WH!

The CNN political editor was somewhat unconvincingly arguing that Trump would follow Paul Ryan's agenda.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/796220757571411968

And a protectionist, isolationist government. What happened next to the American economy.

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

corporeal said:

Sandpit said:

Is the end for political polling? Discuss.

Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.

I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.

Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.

The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.

Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.

Trump presently leads the national popular vote by almost 1. 5 million votes with over a third of California having now reported

Corals have Paris at 8/13 for the Olympics. Tough to see LA getting it now...
https://twitter.com/Pearcesport/status/796237301017939968

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/olympics/olympic-general-specials/2024-olympics/host-city

Nearly had heart attack just now when I thought I saw Trump out to 42 -- but it is Hillary -- Betfair swapped them round in their lists.

Tissue_Price said:

Corals have Paris at 8/13 for the Olympics. Tough to see LA getting it now...
https://twitter.com/Pearcesport/status/796237301017939968

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/olympics/olympic-general-specials/2024-olympics/host-city

So France is going to go bankrupt.

Tissue_Price said:

Corals have Paris at 8/13 for the Olympics. Tough to see LA getting it now...
https://twitter.com/Pearcesport/status/796237301017939968

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/olympics/olympic-general-specials/2024-olympics/host-city

Perhaps President Le Pen can open them?

AndyJS said:

It seems obvious now that what Clinton should have done was to ignore Trump completely and just focus on her own policies. By taking on Trump she was doing exactly what he and his supporters wanted.

The lack of last minute scandal to throw at Trump on the weekend was a big miss.

Hope it's not being cheeky to ask - how did people do betting wise?

I've made my biggest ever single-event profit of about £1660 (prev best was £1100 on Nadal v Federer at Australia 2009).

And here is probably the official anthem of President Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wxyN3z9PL4

Waiting for Godot in Pennsylvania...

Aussie stock exchange down 2%. Hang Seng and Bombay both off by 3%. the Nikkei is down by over 5%, presumably due to the appreciation of the Yen.

Given that it is virtually certain that Trump will win, I'm surprised (and relieved) that it's not worse. Hopefully means there won't be a rout when the bourses open in Europe.

I'm not sure what the delay is in declaring Pennsylvania. Surely any minute now.