politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence

PA- Clinton 30k votes up, 13% to declare.

PA down to 7k vote lead for Clinton.

Whoa Pennsylvania now neck and neck on 89% 48.3% v48.2%

I think Trump's going to take it

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Over £500 available @ 1.63 on Hillary to win the popular vote. This has been going on all night...

Can you explain quickly why she'll win ?

It's not guaranteed, but she'd have to really underperform on the west coast.

JosiasJessop said:

Next bets: how much will markets fall today?

Try as I might, I cannot see how Prez Trump isn't going to be a disaster, for the US and the world. I hope I'm wrong.

The Dow was up 400 points on the assumption of a Hillary win.
That will be reversed.

david_herdson said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

Oh, and it's time for:

Congrats to Plato!

And @RodCrosby

She has done very well. I thought Trump would win in August but then thought the sex scandals had sunk him. I hope she had some money on.

Jack was right about the importance of FOP, unfortunately his ARSE had a malfunction

Trump could win without PA now, couldn't he?

Yes, barring an upset in AZ or AK he's won.

david_herdson said:

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Congratulations to all that called this correctly. I think the West is now in real trouble.

Indeed. And contrition from those who dismissed the possibility too readily.

I still find it extraordinary that someone with such appalling ratings could win an election like this. True, Hillary's are far from healthy (in fact, they're the second-worst ever recorded for a presidential candidate), but they were still well ahead of Trump. All I can think is either (1) the pollsters screwed up, or (2) we paid insufficient attention to those who disapproved of both candidates, who must have broken clearly for Trump. After all, it's not just whether a voter's opinion of a candidate is plus or minus zero but it's *how much* it is so relative to the others on the ballot that counts.

Just as people switched late to the Tories in 2015 because they feared the poll prediction of a Miliband minority PM, I am sure that Clinton's projected win probably made some people switch late to Trump. as they also switched to Brexit to reduce the projected Remain win.

I don't follow the logic there (apart from UK2015GE, but my experience in that is that opinion was fairly firm at least a week out). It makes more sense to simply think that the polls were methodologically wrong.

I am not saying they weren't - but there is also anecdotal evidence at least, that people look at the projected result and if they don't like it some will change their vote accordingly.

Trump just 5k away from PA.

williamglenn said:

JosiasJessop said:

bazzer said:

Leaving aside whether you are a Trump fan or not, from a narrow national interest point of view, is this good for the UK? We may be one of the few overseas countries he can cope with / speak language /relate to etc? Suddenly UK at the front of the queue?

The question is Trump's foreign policy, and whether it will ease tensions in hotspots around the world. It's useless being friendly with the US if eastern Europe is aflame.

Russia is not going to screw up the chance to negotiate a new settlement as an equal with the US by doing anything stupid now.

Also remember that Trump's first wife was from the Czech Republic and third is from Slovenia. He's not going to be completely blind to the concerns of eastern Europe.

Putin's interested in power. As has been seen in the past. he'll do whatever he can to shore his polling numbers up when they start to slip.

Also: Russia isn't an equal to the US. China may be soon. But Russia isn't. The only way it is a superpower is in nukes and, whilst that's important, it isn't the whole story.

As an example: the Russian space agency has settled for the same amount of money over the next ten years as NASA gets in just one. And some of that is coming from the US in the form of payments for Soyuz seats.

That's another question: will Trump lift sanctions against Russia?

JennyFreeman said:

RobD said:

david_herdson said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

Oh, and it's time for:

Congrats to Plato!

And @RodCrosby

She has done very well. I thought Trump would win in August but then thought the sex scandals had sunk him. I hope she had some money on.

Jack was right about the importance of FOP, unfortunately his ARSE had a malfunction

Trump could win without PA now, couldn't he?

Yep, he just needs the one ME vote and he's at 270.

Yeah he's won. He might get over 300 EV's

Yeah, 270 + 46 if he wins all of WI, MI and PA.

The BBC now reduced to suggesting Trump might suddenly become more responsible now that he has the job. A prediction that has been made and disproved at several earlier stages, sadly.

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Over £500 available @ 1.63 on Hillary to win the popular vote. This has been going on all night...

Can you explain quickly why she'll win ?

It's not guaranteed, but she'd have to really underperform on the west coast.

25% in in California and she has a million vote lead, LA 9% in.

So I'm guessing she gets 3 million votes from California.

NYT have her winning by 1.3-1.4% which is good enough for me

Lesson: don't insult 25% of the electorate.

TheScreamingEagles said:

bazzer said:

Leaving aside whether you are a Trump fan or not, from a narrow national interest point of view, is this good for the UK? We may be one of the few overseas countries he can cope with / speak language /relate to etc? Suddenly UK at the front of the queue?

He's bad for free trade, so maybe not good for us.

First foreign visit to Theresa and No 10.

He is just going to love that and can you just imagine Alex Salmond's face

brokenwheel said:

I think it really is over now.

All over for the Clintons

brokenwheel said:

I think it really is over now.

It is now....but they don't think it is!

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/796156785967202304

So much for the Hispanic vote.

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

bazzer said:

Leaving aside whether you are a Trump fan or not, from a narrow national interest point of view, is this good for the UK? We may be one of the few overseas countries he can cope with / speak language /relate to etc? Suddenly UK at the front of the queue?

He's bad for free trade, so maybe not good for us.

He's buddies with Farage, Boris and Salmond and hostile to the EU.

He will probably be good with us.

Salmond and Trump have had a *massive* falling out.

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

bazzer said:

Leaving aside whether you are a Trump fan or not, from a narrow national interest point of view, is this good for the UK? We may be one of the few overseas countries he can cope with / speak language /relate to etc? Suddenly UK at the front of the queue?

He's bad for free trade, so maybe not good for us.

First foreign visit to Theresa and No 10.

He is just going to love that and can you just imagine Alex Salmond's face

OMG, can you imagine Trump and HM? LOL

Well he knows Britain pretty well

White men have voted in a mass block.

In my defence ibdidbaay Trump's vote looked crazily efficient pre election.

The polls fundamentally aren't capturing a group that historically didn't much vote. Any that do participate in polls are shy about it.

The solution is simple, take the poll predictions, subtract 10 from the respectable candidates and add 10 to the unacceptable ones.

Speedy said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/796156785967202304

So much for the Hispanic vote.

HAHAHAHA.

So much for minorities against Populism.

Why is this surprising? It was known that Cubans were more likely to trend Trump. Cubans don't equal all Hispanics, let alone all minorities. Anyway, I should get some sleep. This looks done.

Does Elon Musk have any spare seats?

RobD said:

Maybe Clinton did cancel her fireworks because of polling?

But they would have gone to the states in trouble of they knew this was happening.

Black_Rook said:

Jeremy Vine doing has bar charts. Exit poll returns suggest white men voted 55:36 in favour of Trump.

Suggestion is that Trump has mobilised white male voters as a minority community, just as Obama energised the African-American vote. That's at least a big part of how he won.

Wait till white male voters in America realise that punishing all other demographics isn't going to make their lives any better.

AlastairMeeks said:

Does Elon Musk have any spare seats?

They're looking for a payload for their return-to-flight. Are you volunteering?

(Which should be next month, with luck. Hopefully they've stopped their rockets from spontaneously combusting. It's solid oxygen wot dun it).

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/796156785967202304

So much for the Hispanic vote.

That's A record low for a Republican

Alistair said:

In my defence ibdidbaay Trump's vote looked crazily efficient pre election.

Yeah - and you said so IIRC.

Or maybe I did. I forget.

Anyway, I remember us discussing how efficient trump's vote was a week or so ago. So a narrow EC win shouldn't have been that surprising.

Although I am still quite surprised.

numbertwelve said:

MaxPB said:

oxfordsimon said:

Would Sanders have done any better?

Easily. Wouldn't have lost the rust belt.

And that is where it has ended for Hillary. If she had won MI and WI (and PA, if it flips, but let's put it in her column for now):

- She could have afforded to lose North Carolina
- She could have afforded to lose Iowa
- She could have afforded to lose New Hampshire
- She could have afforded to lose Florida

Heck, she could even have afforded to lose New Mexico if the Nebraska district gives her a vote.

Her campaign has been too focussed on being continuity Obama without focussing on the people in the 'firewall' states that are feeling the pain right now and can't see how they've benefitted under Obama.

CNN suggested just now, and I agree, that the unrelenting focus on celebrity endorsement may have been a big mistake in the closing days. How does that speak to people in the rust belt?

This is textbook on how to throw away an election. The Edstone and the Sheffield rally have nothing on this.

I wonder how the DNC fools feel about stitching it up for her?

From the Telegraph - markets are already going crackers:


Sean Callow, a forex strategist at Westpac in Sydney, says markets "are reacting as though the four horsemen of the apocalypse just rode out of Trump Tower". 

"Or at least 3 of them - it might be 4 when the prospect of a clean sweep of Congress sinks in."

US stock futures recoiled more than 4.5 percent, matching the carnage that followed the British vote to leave the European Union in June that wiped trillions of dollars of value off global markets.

Sovereign bonds flew ahead, pushing yields on 10-year US Treasury notes down a huge 13 basis points to 1.74 percent, again the largest drop since Brexit.

Yields had briefly touched a six-month high around 1.8960 percent in early trade.

In commodity markets, gold climbed 3.4 percent to $1,318 an ounce as the dollar slid.

Oil turned tail on concerns over the global economic outlook, with U.S. crude shedding $1.34 to $43.63 a barrel, while Brent fell $1.24 to $44.80.


And Christ, Trump is now being reported as narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania, with 94% of votes counted. This isn't even going to be that close on the ECV.

MaxPB said:

numbertwelve said:

MaxPB said:

oxfordsimon said:

Would Sanders have done any better?

Easily. Wouldn't have lost the rust belt.

And that is where it has ended for Hillary. If she had won MI and WI (and PA, if it flips, but let's put it in her column for now):

- She could have afforded to lose North Carolina
- She could have afforded to lose Iowa
- She could have afforded to lose New Hampshire
- She could have afforded to lose Florida

Heck, she could even have afforded to lose New Mexico if the Nebraska district gives her a vote.

Her campaign has been too focussed on being continuity Obama without focussing on the people in the 'firewall' states that are feeling the pain right now and can't see how they've benefitted under Obama.

CNN suggested just now, and I agree, that the unrelenting focus on celebrity endorsement may have been a big mistake in the closing days. How does that speak to people in the rust belt?

This is textbook on how to throw away an election. The Edstone and the Sheffield rally have nothing on this.

I wonder how the DNC fools feel about stitching it up for her?

I wonder how angry the Democratic rank and file feel about it... She'll end her career as a massive hate figure even in her own party.

Le Pen to win in France now.

AndyJS said:

I thought Trump said the election was going to be rigged against him...

He will just say he won despite of it!

Speedy said:

JosiasJessop said:

Next bets: how much will markets fall today?

Try as I might, I cannot see how Prez Trump isn't going to be a disaster, for the US and the world. I hope I'm wrong.

The Dow was up 400 points on the assumption of a Hillary win.
That will be reversed.

The spreads suggest an open 800 points down. If this transpires, a bigger one day fall than 9/11

Is it me or was Emily's voice breaking a bit ?

brokenwheel said:

Just sayin';

brokenwheel said:

DavidL said:

Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.

I do not hold that the Hispanic vote will be quite as crucial as is being made out. Firstly it would only make a big difference on my map to Arizona; Based on early voting a good chunk of the increase in Hispanics is only making up for the underperformance in AAs. As much is made of Hispanic's hatred of Trump, even the most pessimistic numbers for him are better than his numbers with blacks. Only Arizona is a close state without the need to offset the AA vote (because the AA vote isn't as big anyway).

My opinion is the clincher will be what the white vote does, particularly white middle-income men, who are more likely to vote on election day.

I think this piece from Cohn is important.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=2

Now look at the figures for example for those who haven't already voted but intend to in North Carolina,

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html

A good, insightful comment. How many responses did it get?

Pulpstar said:

Is it me or was Emily's voice breaking a bit ?

Ha, I've thought that a few times. Clive Myrie's voice was cracking in one of the news roundups as well.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PlatoSaid said:

Trump 1m ahead on popular vote so far

Well done Plato for being one of the very few to challenge the conventional "experts" on PB, in the face of unwise abuse from people who should know better.

I haven't followed the election much until now but the comments I have seen to Plato by some on this forum were unacceptable and she is owed many apologies in my opinion

She also owes many apologies ...

Black_Rook said:

From the Telegraph - markets are already going crackers:


Sean Callow, a forex strategist at Westpac in Sydney, says markets "are reacting as though the four horsemen of the apocalypse just rode out of Trump Tower". 

"Or at least 3 of them - it might be 4 when the prospect of a clean sweep of Congress sinks in."

US stock futures recoiled more than 4.5 percent, matching the carnage that followed the British vote to leave the European Union in June that wiped trillions of dollars of value off global markets.

Sovereign bonds flew ahead, pushing yields on 10-year US Treasury notes down a huge 13 basis points to 1.74 percent, again the largest drop since Brexit.

Yields had briefly touched a six-month high around 1.8960 percent in early trade.

In commodity markets, gold climbed 3.4 percent to $1,318 an ounce as the dollar slid.

Oil turned tail on concerns over the global economic outlook, with U.S. crude shedding $1.34 to $43.63 a barrel, while Brent fell $1.24 to $44.80.


And Christ, Trump is now being reported as narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania, with 94% of votes counted. This isn't even going to be that close on the ECV.

Gold now $1331 already.

PlatoSaid said:

ABC 24
'It really is like covering a wake' @zdaniel describe the mood at the #Clinton headquarters in Newyork #usavotes https://t.co/qTKiJfWRKG

Also in shock are the BBC and SKY.

oxfordsimon said:

KentRising said:

Pulpstar said:

Is it me or was Emily's voice breaking a bit ?

She either needs a sip of water or she's upset that Trump is romping home. Poor lass!

The BBC news room will need grief counselling

Bless them. They've had a hard couple of years of election results programmes.

numbertwelve said:

oxfordsimon said:

KentRising said:

Pulpstar said:

Is it me or was Emily's voice breaking a bit ?

She either needs a sip of water or she's upset that Trump is romping home. Poor lass!

The BBC news room will need grief counselling

Bless them. They've had a hard couple of years of election results programmes.

"It's been a terrrrrrrrrible night for the Republicans"

Is it me or does the internet feel a bit sticky?

To be fair if trump wins.....if???


Plato moves from POTY to LOTY. (Lord of PB and takes PB ermine)



If?

DecrepitJohnL said:

Is it me or does the internet feel a bit sticky?

Haven't dared look at twitter.....

Let's remember why this result happened.

The median income in Ohio is down $10,000.

If you lost that much money would you have voted to upend the establishment?

brokenwheel said:

JosiasJessop said:

brokenwheel said:

Just sayin';

brokenwheel said:

DavidL said:

Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.

I do not hold that the Hispanic vote will be quite as crucial as is being made out. Firstly it would only make a big difference on my map to Arizona; Based on early voting a good chunk of the increase in Hispanics is only making up for the underperformance in AAs. As much is made of Hispanic's hatred of Trump, even the most pessimistic numbers for him are better than his numbers with blacks. Only Arizona is a close state without the need to offset the AA vote (because the AA vote isn't as big anyway).

My opinion is the clincher will be what the white vote does, particularly white middle-income men, who are more likely to vote on election day.

I think this piece from Cohn is important.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=2

Now look at the figures for example for those who haven't already voted but intend to in North Carolina,

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html

A good, insightful comment. How many responses did it get?

Only one iirc.

Don't let that get you down, I think there are lots of lurkers reading PB!