politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence

Comments

• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  Nice thread title

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• IanB2 Posts: 51,099

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  Second. Like Hillary.

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  You forgot the Luntz tweet declaring Hillary President early in the night.

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016

  The Rust Belt is Trump's Ardennes?

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• Andrew Posts: 2,900

  November 2016

  Michigan gap down to 13k now.

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• Cicero Posts: 3,397

  November 2016

  Another catastrophic night for.. The pollsters.

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• williamglenn Posts: 54,816

  November 2016

  Trump ahead in PA now.

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  Trump takes the lead in Pennsylvania.

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016

  I honestly expected Hillary to win before the votes came in!

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  williamglenn said:

  Trump ahead in PA now.

  and CNN on a commerical break!

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• numbertwelve Posts: 7,302

  November 2016

  williamglenn said:

  Trump ahead in PA now.

  That's it.

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• JennyFreeman Posts: 488

  November 2016

  Whoa Pennsylvania

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• TheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,658

  November 2016

  RobD said:

  Nice thread title

  A chance to mock French military prowess, like I'd ever turn that down

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  Andrew said:

  Michigan gap down to 13k now.

  Downtown Detroit is almost exhausted as a source of Hillary votes, outstanding counties heavily Trump.

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  Right bed for me. NV looks D as does PA.
  
  But Rs will probably win one or two of MN, MI, WI...

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• RochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

  November 2016

  Danny565 said:

  show previous quotes

  Mortimer said:

  Woah, HRC apparently didn't set foot in WI after getting the nomination....

  Utterly ridiculous and unwarranted complacency from the Clinton campaign from the beginning.

  Echoes of Labour in Scotland. "This is OUR state. We WEIGH our votes"
  
  Forget the Establishment, it's the Entitlement class of which Hillary Manchurian Clinton is the epitome of why their time is done.

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• Sandpit Posts: 56,022

  November 2016

  Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.
  
  Trump ahead in PA now!

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  show previous quotes

  RobD said:

  Nice thread title

  A chance to mock French military prowess, like I'd ever turn that down

  *Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "Yorktown"*

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  Sandpit said:

  Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.
  
  Trump ahead in PA now!

  http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
  
  Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again

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• Paristonda Posts: 1,844

  November 2016

  My gut just told me he would Trump would do it. I've been feeling it since Brexit. Despite much commentary on why the two aren't the same, there is the same core voter overlap, the left behind. They are going to make themselves heard.

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• IanB2 Posts: 51,099

  November 2016

  The projected fall in tomorrow's Dow Jones based on the out-of-hours spread betting is now bigger than the daily fall on 9/11

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• Artist Posts: 1,893

  November 2016

  The news will have to start talking about Minnesota soon..

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  rcs1000 said:

  show previous quotes

  Sandpit said:

  Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.
  
  Trump ahead in PA now!

  http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
  
  Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again

  now 70k!

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  rcs1000 said:

  show previous quotes

  Sandpit said:

  Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.
  
  Trump ahead in PA now!

  http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
  
  Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again

  Now 70k+...

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  rcs1000 said:

  show previous quotes

  Sandpit said:

  Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.
  
  Trump ahead in PA now!

  http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
  
  Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again

  Now 72k.

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• Alistair Posts: 23,670

  November 2016

  My guess for the poll failure is LV screen

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• Pulpstar Posts: 79,222

  November 2016

  Just backed a tie at 26.0

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016

  Trump now on 193
  Clinton on 197
  
  Utah just went red

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• Sandpit Posts: 56,022

  November 2016

  rcs1000 said:

  show previous quotes

  Sandpit said:

  Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.
  
  Trump ahead in PA now!

  http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
  
  Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again

  I think we should leave PA in the TCTC column for a bit longer.

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• Danny565 Posts: 8,091

  November 2016

  Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.

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• Andrew Posts: 2,900

  November 2016

  IanB2 said:

  The projected fall in tomorrow's Dow Jones based on the out-of-hours spread betting is now bigger than the daily fall on 9/11

  That'll happen when you elect a leader who even Glenn Beck (of all people!) considers to be "dangerously unhinged".

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• Pulpstar Posts: 79,222

  November 2016

  Sunil_Prasannan said:

  Trump now on 193
  Clinton on 197
  
  Utah just went red

  McMuffin dashed.

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  Hillary lead in PA down to 65k.

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• Dixie Posts: 1,221

  November 2016

  Luntz is clearly his nickname!

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• ToryJim Posts: 4,192

  November 2016

  Danny565 said:

  Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.

  Too late.

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• Mortimer Posts: 14,188

  November 2016

  IanB2 said:

  The projected fall in tomorrow's Dow Jones based on the out-of-hours spread betting is now bigger than the daily fall on 9/11

  I have quite a big business day tomorrow - I'm getting the feeling it'll be eerily quiet just as post 9/11 was.....

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  Danny565 said:

  Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.

  Michigan looking better for Clinton, Wisconsin worse

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• Black_Rook Posts: 8,905

  November 2016

  Back on BBC as my Sky reception has gone to bits! They are showing PA could hold, but MI on a knife edge and Trump 3% ahead in WI with 70% of the votes counted.
  
  If Trump wins WI, he's President. I think this is over.

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• Andrew Posts: 2,900

  November 2016

  Artist said:

  The news will have to start talking about Minnesota soon..

  Yeah, was just thinking that. It's looking like it'll be seriously tight.

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• Dixie Posts: 1,221

  November 2016

  Paristonda said:

  My gut just told me he would Trump would do it. I've been feeling it since Brexit. Despite much commentary on why the two aren't the same, there is the same core voter overlap, the left behind. They are going to make themselves heard.

  agreed

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• Tony Posts: 159

  November 2016

  Minnesota is about to flip Trump on NYT.
  She's down to 0.1 lead from 4+

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  Trump is leading in WA with 72% of Seattle in.

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  Speedy said:

  Hillary lead in PA down to 65k.

  And up to 75k...

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• Pulpstar Posts: 79,222

  November 2016

  I never thought 26.0 would be a good price for a tie, but I think the chance is over 4% now !

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  rcs1000 said:

  show previous quotes

  Danny565 said:

  Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.

  Michigan looking better for Clinton, Wisconsin worse

  Yeah, she's 3 points down with 70% counted.

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• MikeL Posts: 7,772

  November 2016

  WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  Speedy said:

  Trump is leading in WA with 72% of Seattle in.

  It has been called by CNBC for Clinton, don't know if they're right

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  FL for Trump
  
  OMG!!!
  
  Trump now on 222 electors

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• dr_spyn Posts: 11,307

  November 2016

  Trump Takes Florida - BBC.

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  MikeL said:

  WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

  414 of 478 reported on NY Times.

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• JennyFreeman Posts: 488

  November 2016

  Tony said:

  Minnesota is about to flip Trump on NYT.
  She's down to 0.1 lead from 4+

  That's incredible

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• Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

  November 2016

  BBC calls Florida for Trump

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  MikeL said:

  WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

  87% of Milwaukee is in.

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• MikeL Posts: 7,772

  November 2016

  NYT says Trump is 95% certain in WI

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• MaxPB Posts: 39,817

  November 2016

  Alistair said:

  My guess for the poll failure is LV screen

  You pointed it out to me which made me buy a big position on Trump!

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• Pong Posts: 4,693

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  fpt;
  
  Speedy said:
  » show previous quotes
  I think it's actually greater, since the Exit Polls where extremely wrong, also 99% of opinion polls.
  
  ---
  
  The polls look to have been out by about 4 points on average, although it's still early.
  
  4 points is not far from the average polling error in US elections - an error of that magnitude ain't unexpected.
  
  The polls just pointed to the *wrong* overall result, which will be their main crime.
  
  Having just said that, the herding in the final polls was a bit ridiculous - as Nate Silver pointed out yesterday morning. 538 deserve a gold coconut for their coverage/analysis.

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016

  MikeL said:

  WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

  Happy Days?

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  It looks like Clinton will take PA, and MI looks increasingly good.
  
  IA called for Trump.

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• david_herdson Posts: 18,214

  November 2016

  I went to bed when FL was looking good for Hillary, having decided that the benefits of recovery after more than nine weeks of sleepless nights outweighed missing a Trump concession speech. Woke up to feed the baby only to find that Trump has take Ohio by double digits and that Michigan is in play. Hillary still has firewalls - PA above all now - but Trump has gone through so many that even if they ultimately hold, she'd be no more than a lame duck president from day 1 given the way congress is going.

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• MikeL Posts: 7,772

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  Speedy said:

  show previous quotes

  MikeL said:

  WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

  87% of Milwaukee is in.

  Not according to CNN!
  
  But they may be wrong.

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• Charles Posts: 35,758

  November 2016

  The arrogance of Clinton in summary:
  
  "She prepared 2 speeches tonight...because she is superstitious"
  
  Not because she might lose...

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  Trump needs 54 more electoral votes according to NY Times.
  
  http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

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• Casino_Royale Posts: 62,283

  November 2016

  rcs1000 said:

  It looks like Clinton will take PA, and MI looks increasingly good.
  
  IA called for Trump.

  rcs1000 said:

  It looks like Clinton will take PA, and MI looks increasingly good.
  
  IA called for Trump.

  MI good for Clinton you mean?

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• Black_Rook Posts: 8,905

  November 2016

  https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796208993916121088
  
  It's over. Donald Trump will be President.

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• MaxPB Posts: 39,817

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  MikeL said:

  WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

  Eh? NYT saying 414/478 reported in.

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  Black_Rook said:

  https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796208993916121088
  
  It's over. Donald Trump will be President.

  Wow!

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• stjohn Posts: 1,897

  November 2016

  Tissue Price.
  
  From the previous thread. How do you rate Hillary's chance of winning the popular vote, in % terms?

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• Andrew Posts: 2,900

  November 2016

  Fox calls Wisconsin for Trump. That's him at 271, he's won.

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• Sandpit Posts: 56,022

  November 2016

  Fox call Wisconsin for Trump!

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  PA: Clinton down to 72K, but not long to go...

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• JennyFreeman Posts: 488

  November 2016

  So Wisconsin goes Trump and that takes him to 272 by my reckoning without Nevada

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  CNN has called Florida for Trump.

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• rcs1000 Posts: 59,368

  November 2016

  Sandpit said:

  Fox call Wisconsin for Trump!

  right, bed

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016

  CNN website also calls FL for Trump

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• NickPalmer Posts: 21,674

  November 2016

  Alistair said:

  My guess for the poll failure is LV screen

  I think that's right. It's the same reason that polls in Britain struggle - predicting who will actually vote is really hard.

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• Dixie Posts: 1,221

  November 2016

  Cracking interview on Sky with ancient woman in Florida, proving the stereotype that it is the snow state.

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• Pulpstar Posts: 79,222

  November 2016

  JennyFreeman said:

  So Wisconsin goes Trump and that takes him to 272 by my reckoning without Nevada

  What states are you giving ?

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  Andrew said:

  Fox calls Wisconsin for Trump. That's him at 271, he's won.

  Yep.

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• david_herdson Posts: 18,214

  November 2016

  TSE. Dodgy analogy. The Germans were forced to go round the Maginot line; Trump is going through Hillary's defences, as well as taking in a few flank attacks.

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• AndyJS Posts: 29,395

  November 2016

  When Hillary decided to make her "deplorables" speech, why the hell didn't one of her advisors tell her to change it beforehand?

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• JennyFreeman Posts: 488

  November 2016

  Big Trump win in Florida

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• Pulpstar Posts: 79,222

  November 2016

  On topic:
  
  Looks like Nevada could well be the firewall winner
  
  Hat tip Nabavi.

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  When will CNN call WI...

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  Beeb ticker says
  
  Trump 228
  Clinton 209

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• not_on_fire Posts: 4,449

  November 2016

  How is AZ looking?

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• Tony Posts: 159

  November 2016

  Minnesota has flipped to Trump.

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• MaxPB Posts: 39,817

  November 2016

  MI looking better for Trump as well now.

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• JennyFreeman Posts: 488

  November 2016

  Andrew said:

  Fox calls Wisconsin for Trump. That's him at 271, he's won.

  Yep. It's pretty much now over.

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• Speedy Posts: 12,100

  November 2016

  RobD said:

  When will CNN call WI...

  They haven't even called Georgia where Trump leads by 10%.

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• DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

  November 2016

  Pence has come in to 700 on Betfair.

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• Black_Rook Posts: 8,905

  November 2016

  Tony said:

  Minnesota has flipped to Trump.

  If Michigan goes as well then it's not even going to be that tight. Trump will be home with room to spare.

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• Charles Posts: 35,758

  November 2016

  Black_Rook said:

  https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796208993916121088
  
  It's over. Donald Trump will be President.

  GA called for Trump

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• Danny565 Posts: 8,091

  November 2016

  I suspect the Clintons will be booking their own tickets to Canada right about now.

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• Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

  November 2016

  Why is New Hampshire taking so long?

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• Casino_Royale Posts: 62,283

  November 2016

  MaxPB said:

  MI looking better for Trump as well now.

  Hope MI comes in (and PA doesn't) because i'm on 4 of Trump's big 6 with Ladbrokes.

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• not_on_fire Posts: 4,449

  November 2016

  When does Betfair pay out on the Next President market? Surely we don't have to wait until Jan 20?

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• numbertwelve Posts: 7,302

  November 2016 edited November 2016

  Well, I had a funny feeling this was Brexit all over again. And so it has proven.
  
  President Donald Trump. Wow.
  
  Three things to take from this:
  
  1. Dems have to seriously kick themselves for choosing Clinton now. They have known for ages that, although popular with some of the base, she is widely distrusted by the country at large.
  2. Was the FBI letter the October surprise to end all October surprises?
  3. Is there room in someone's fallout shelter?

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• Black_Rook Posts: 8,905

  November 2016

  Pulpstar said:

  On topic:
  
  Looks like Nevada could well be the firewall winner
  
  Hat tip Nabavi.

  Eh?!

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• KentRising Posts: 2,917

  November 2016

  Danny565 said:

  I suspect the Clintons will be booking their own tickets to Canada right about now.

  Canada's too sensible a country not to turn 'em back at passport control.

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• RobD Posts: 60,352

  November 2016

  Trump has to win the ME congressional district to get to 270, right?

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