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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    So Oprah Winfrey the Dem nominee in 2020?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,733
    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Do we know who is behind this / model they are using?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Hillary is still very much in this race.....
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796192747912826880
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Come on Michigan. Save us.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Do we know who is behind this / model they are using?
    It is using real data, as the projections for each state changes as the votes come in. They have FL as a slam dunk for Trump now, which must be based on what their model expects from the missing votes.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tissue_Price said:

    More 1/2 available on Clinton for the popular vote. Am I missing something?

    No.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Now into the 'likely' box!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
    On present trends her lead in California will be down on Obama's lead in 2012, she needs a really big lead there to be sure of overtaking Trump in the national popular vote
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    YossariansChild said:

    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.

    Jack's ARSE is no good for anti-establishment candidates facing off against the establishment. He was out by 5 points on Sindy, 5 points on Brexit and looks to be out by a similar amount in the US.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Shocking graphic on CNN just now showing loads of WI counties turning red> Small pop but tells a big story
  • Tony
    Tony Posts: 159
    Wow, Exit poll had Ohio dead even.
    He's winning it by 9%.

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    BBC just flashed TRUMP WINS VIRGINIA

    Muppets
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    It's all on Michigan

    Clinton probably has a 300,000 margin still to come from Wayne County.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    SandyRentool said:

    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Now into the 'likely' box!
    87% ;)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    England win the toss and bat.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Too high IMO.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    Overall 52% reported, but PA suburbs stll 30%, Pittsburgh also way below 50%.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Iowa looks funny. Huge Clinton lead with 9% in.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Tony said:

    Wow, Exit poll had Ohio dead even.
    He's winning it by 9%.

    What did votecastr have it as? LOL
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MaxPB said:

    YossariansChild said:

    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.

    Jack's ARSE is no good for anti-establishment candidates facing off against the establishment. He was out by 5 points on Sindy, 5 points on Brexit and looks to be out by a similar amount in the US.

    Or no good on binary choices.

  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    If he's won Ohio by 10+ points I don't see how he doesn't take PA as well.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Oh is Trump. Well at least I got one state right on my prediction.
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    MarqueeMark said:

    Democratic Ground Game = Labour Ground Game

    We don't have a ground game any more. The new members advise me that door knocking is so old and that all we need is social media and The Canary to convert non-voters to nailed on Labour votes
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Get on the draw, if the world ends they will abandon
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
    On present trends her lead in California will be down on Obama's lead in 2012, she needs a really big lead there to be sure of overtaking Trump in the national popular vote
    50 quid?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Tony said:

    Wow, Exit poll had Ohio dead even.
    He's winning it by 9%.

    But why not, if the reason the non-exit polls were wrong was shy Trumpers? They're not going to be any less shy just because it's election day.
  • Dromedary
    Dromedary Posts: 1,194
    Andrew said:

    Anyone see how Maine2 went?

    Clinton PA+IA+NV+ME2 = 269-269, and then we have all manner of fun.

    The NYT expect Clinton to win all four electoral votes for Maine.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Tissue_Price said:

    BBC just flashed TRUMP WINS VIRGINIA

    Muppets

    Their hands are probably shaking a lot at the moment.

    Mine are.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Won't a lot of West Coast Democrats stay at home now?
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    Overall 52% reported, but PA suburbs stll 30%, Pittsburgh also way below 50%.
    He will win it, look at the massive lead he won Ohio by.
  • tpfkar
    tpfkar Posts: 1,578
    BBC flashed "Trump wins Virginia" I just screamed at the TV. 5 seconds later "Clinton winsVirginia"
    Even the BBC are in on it tonight. I think I've had as much as I can handle for one night.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    DavidL said:

    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.

    Could he win WI, MI, OH and PA? :o
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Good news.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    DanSmith said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    If he's won Ohio by 10+ points I don't see how he doesn't take PA as well.
    Pennsylvania and surburbs are very different from Dayton.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Hillary ignored her friends.

    Took Wisconsin for granted.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hillary's "deplorables" comment doesn't seem such a good idea now.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Anyone got a national turnout forecast?
  • JennyFreeman
    JennyFreeman Posts: 488
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hillary is still very much in this race.....

    Errr I make it that she now has to win ALL of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.

    Could he win WI, MI, OH and PA? :o
    He could.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    The VIX (volatility index) is up by 7%.
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    YossariansChild said:

    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.

    Lol
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited November 2016
    88% Trump for Presidency

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 88% Trump wins.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    JennyFreeman said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hillary is still very much in this race.....

    Errr I make it that she now has to win ALL of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota
    And the Great Lakes states are looking the worst for her of all so far
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Clinton gets VA

    So that makes
    Trump 168
    Clinton 122
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    AndyJS said:

    Hillary's "deplorables" comment doesn't seem such a good idea now.

    It was a fucking stupid thing to say in the first place.

    She ran a Guardianista/ Poly Toynbee type campaign. IN AMERICA.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    RobD said:

    88% Trump for Presidency

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

    As high as Clinton was at the start of the night

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    JennyFreeman said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hillary is still very much in this race.....

    Errr I make it that she now has to win ALL of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota
    But they are all still in play for her.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    brokenwheel said:

    Trump isn't going to lose Iowa people, the only reason it's blue at the moment is because the cities are returning first.

    Agreed. Conversely I'm still sceptical that she'll lose MI.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    538 now has it 52% Clinton, 47% Trump, and that's with FL still as a 50/50 split.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.

    Could he win WI, MI, OH and PA? :o
    Don't think Pa but he doesn't need it if he gets the others.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
    On present trends her lead in California will be down on Obama's lead in 2012, she needs a really big lead there to be sure of overtaking Trump in the national popular vote
    50 quid?
    I presently stand to win a little over that if the winner of the popular vote loses the EC, so no am not going to risk that thankyou. As I said my bet wins either way (though may come back to you once the California returns are in). However if Trump falls just short in Michigan or Pennsylvania but cuts Clinton's lead in California it is certainly possible he wins the popular vote but not the EC
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Get on the draw, if the world ends they will abandon
    Cook will still be not out and unsweaty among the cinders.
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    rcs1000 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    If he's won Ohio by 10+ points I don't see how he doesn't take PA as well.
    Pennsylvania and surburbs are very different from Dayton.
    I agree, but 10+ points !!
  • Tony
    Tony Posts: 159
    I wouldn't be so sure on the popular vote win by HRC, as results come in the NYTimes prediction keeps moving down , currently has her at only +1.3

    If he wins Ohio/Michigan/PA surely he gets the popular vote as well?
  • Tony
    Tony Posts: 159
    Tony said:

    I wouldn't be so sure on the popular vote win by HRC, as results come in the NYTimes prediction keeps moving down , currently has her at only +1.3

    If he wins Ohio/Michigan/PA surely he gets the popular vote as well?

    1.2 now ;)
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited November 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Oprah Winfrey the Dem nominee in 2020?

    I was wondering about Condi Rice as president-after-next... if you need your candidate to "make up for" your last one, she's the one you're going to call. (Not usually the way it works, admittedly.)
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    tpfkar said:

    BBC flashed "Trump wins Virginia" I just screamed at the TV. 5 seconds later "Clinton winsVirginia"
    Even the BBC are in on it tonight. I think I've had as much as I can handle for one night.

    Remember that all of us and everything we see is just part of some computer simulation. Or so some scientists believe.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited November 2016
    89% Trump!

    292 Trump, 246 Clinton is their central forecast.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,733
    edited November 2016
    Contrast trump hyper-active campaigning to Clinton who went often a week without really doing any proper rallies.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 89% Trump wins.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The thing is, there never was a Clinton firewall. There was a Clinton lead, which is not the same thing.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    NYT saying PA has a 62% chance for Trump. If that's true then I think he's won. As Jack said, FOP. :o
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Clinton 7/1 to win 270-299 ECV
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Trump peaked on BF
  • nielh
    nielh Posts: 1,307
    I disregarded all the 'evidence' and 'experts' and backed trump at 9/2 earlier in the week. Put £100 on. Toyed with putting on another £200 at 4/1 last night, but didn't go ahead.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    Oh boy. This is not going to be pleasant.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump now winning in some suburban Philadelphia counties by more than Romney.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm baffled by the NYT's 88% Trump chance of victory figure.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Colorado for Clinton - she's on 131 now.

    (I worked briefly there in 2011)
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    What are you assuming for California? Trump could run her closer than you think.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Social media tomorrow morning is going to make Brexit look like a Beatrix Potter book.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Seeing a lot of tweets saying this is not over. And I was thinking of going to bed and planning my nuclear shelter.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    KentRising said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Get on the draw, if the world ends they will abandon
    Cook will still be not out and unsweaty among the cinders.
    LOL!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Where is @JackW with a "Politico" article on how Trump is failing or some such :?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Laurence at 8pm yesterday

    https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/796081263878832128

    Laurence just now

    https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/796195433433407488
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Just took Clinton to win at 4.4 and 7/1 to win 270-299. Felt like things had swung a bit too far.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    NYT 92% Trump wins.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,733
    AndyJS said:

    I'm baffled by the NYT's 88% Trump chance of victory figure.

    I think everybodies models are bigly screwed, as the pattern of voting is way out of what was expected.
  • vik
    vik Posts: 550
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The thing is, there never was a Clinton firewall. There was a Clinton lead, which is not the same thing.

    The whole "firewall" thing was just liberal Media propaganda to make Clinton appear strong.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Casino_Royale said:

    Social media tomorrow morning is going to make Brexit look like a Beatrix Potter book.

    as @Pulpstar put it, Twitter will hit peak twitter.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    Trump is presently ahead in the popular vote nationwide by 49.1% to 46.6% for Clinton, though obviously much depends on California
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Got £25 on Clinton at 5.5
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    EDW20000 said:

    Trump peaked on BF

    Odd that the betting just moved to Clinton on Betfair, while the NYT predictor shot Trump all all the way up to 92%. What are they betting on?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    NYT says Trump will win all of:

    PA, MI, WI
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Trump 130k votes behind in PA, pretty much all of Philly reported in, quite a few rural areas still to count.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    rottenborough said:

    Seeing a lot of tweets saying this is not over. And I was thinking of going to bed and planning my nuclear shelter.

    It's not completely over, but Clinton winning is now basically the equivalent of having a blindfold on, and trying to hit the bullseye on a darts board 4 times in a row. Theoretically possible, but unlikely.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    What are you assuming for California? Trump could run her closer than you think.
    I was assuming a similar result to last time but with a larger electorate.
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    AndyJS said:

    I'm baffled by the NYT's 88% Trump chance of victory figure.

    MN, MI, PA and WI. He only needs to win one to be president. Is leading in two, closing in another, and was level in the exit poll in the other.

    He has several paths to victory now, Clinton only has one.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    MikeL said:

    NYT says Trump will win all of:

    PA, MI, WI

    I think that is a fair suggestion.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Minnesota 31% in
    Clinton 52%
    Trump 40%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/minnesota#president
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Trump pulling away in Michigan, 3.5% ahead. :o
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bwahaha

    David Frum
    We may be living through the most successful Russian intelligence operation since the Rosenbergs stole the A-bomb.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Michigan.

    Hillary is getting votes from Wayne County but Trump has more votes coming from Macomb and Kent.
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Are they looking for votes down the back of the sofa in Florida?
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