If Clinton wins PA and MI but loses WI then it will come down to the split votes in Maine and Nebraska or indeed the elector in D.C who says he won't vote for Clinton (Assuming that Alaska does go blue)
I make it that Trump only needs one of PA, MI, WI or MN to win the Presidency.
In case of Trump victory and Republican Congress, possibility of US-UK trade deal greatly increased. Firstly, UK is single biggest foreign investor in US. Secondly, Britain deals largely in services so does not have a huge overlap with sensitive American industries that Trump appears to wish to defend. Thirdly, we can butter them up by increasing defence spending and purchasing expensive American kit.
Hopefully we can get more F35s for the carriers. The was things are going, we'll have to buy back the Harriers from the Marines...
I think it's actually greater, since the Exit Polls where extremely wrong, also 99% of opinion polls.
The polls look to have been out by about 4 points on average, although it's still early.
4 points is not far from the average polling error in US elections - an error of that magnitude ain't unexpected.
I think the average error of opinion polls was smaller than that. But the error for exit polls should be much smaller still, because there's no uncertainty about turnout to contend with.
So you can admit that you sexually assault women on tape, say you would steal another countries recourses, lie 24/7, call Mexicans mostly rapists and murders, disrespect democracy, and worse and STILL be elected as the most powerful person in the world? Huh? Are Americans absolutely mad? Is this were we are heading, basically trusting fascist strongmen who lies about caring about the working class?
Does this mean we have to forget about truth and facts now and listen to Bill Mitchell now?
The risk of a conflict that ultimately destroys the prosperity of Europe must now be quite high. It is fairly easy to see the path to war: the promises made by the populist right wing governments are not fulfilled, someone else is blamed, this then leads to a war.
I don't think that a war with Russia is necessarily likely under President Trump, it is more likely that there would just be Crimea style capitulation over the Baltic states.
If the EU has no power base of its own, no military etc, no coherant decision making process, then the whole of Europe risks fragmenting and ultimately the continent could quite easily descend in to conflict. This has actually been a long term objective of the Russians, events (Brexit, Trump) have been playing in to their hands.
Comments
Like Labour they took their middle America white unionised vote for granted.
BREAKING: Anti-Trump protesters have reportedly gathered outside the White House.
#ElectionNight
BREAKING: Fox News projects @realDonaldTrump wins the battleground state of #Wisconsin. #ElectionNight #Election2016 https://t.co/nklVoZ2CD2
And Iowa
Trump gets Florida
Is this were we are heading, basically trusting fascist strongmen who lies about caring about the working class?
Does this mean we have to forget about truth and facts now and listen to Bill Mitchell now?
I don't think that a war with Russia is necessarily likely under President Trump, it is more likely that there would just be Crimea style capitulation over the Baltic states.
If the EU has no power base of its own, no military etc, no coherant decision making process, then the whole of Europe risks fragmenting and ultimately the continent could quite easily descend in to conflict.
This has actually been a long term objective of the Russians, events (Brexit, Trump) have been playing in to their hands.