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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Donald Trump is E pluribus unum

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  • Least we get a trade deal and not hassled to give the Falklands back to the Argies.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    269-269 looking scarily plausible.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think we're going to have a winner any time soon. Could be days.

    If Trump wins more than one of PA, WI or MI, I don't think Clinton can win.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?

    Only in their sports teams.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Pulpstar"

    'Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?'

    No a very small black community, Wisconsin is typical small town America.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    Clinton PA lead down to 80k. Trump reeling her in, I think he wins by 20-30k.

    75k.

    Getting closer and outstanding precincts favour Trump.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Trump is looking good for PA. 110k votes behind, catching fast.

    Chester and Dauphin big D counties with 30% in. V close, but I think she holds it.
    Feels like the discussion about Florida a couple of hours ago!
    We'll see; I think she holds her lead in PA.
    Down to 75k with rural districts yet to report and most of the urban districts in. Looks like it will be very, very close.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Can we have a thread on the Richmond Park byelection please?
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    HRC projected popular vote lead now down to 1%.......
    I'd think about getting out those bets.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    OUT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?

    Only in their sports teams.
    Green Bay
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Clinton won't easily concede if she's a clear winner in the popular vote and a whole stack of states are on a knife-edge. There'll be automatic recounts to wait for.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT Trump chances of victory greater than 95%.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I apologise to Speedy, you're right about the blue blob.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    DavidL said:

    This is starting to remind me of Brexit after Sunderland. Surely it is all over.

    Think Michigan will be the Sheffield moment.
  • Test match is about to start.
  • rcs1000 said:

    269-269 looking scarily plausible.

    I don't know how you get that. He only needs one of the rust belts and he crosses 270.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Just cashed out on Trump on a £100 profit. Thanks again to this site.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Just amazing that we are talking about WI and MI tonight.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    nunu said:

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
    Quite. Joe Biden would've cruised home.
    Any other Democrat would have cruised it.
    Trump continues to be underestimated even as he cruises to victory.
    Not any other Democrat but both Bernie and Biden would be doing much better than Clinton with wwc in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    HRC 8/1, all resistance gone
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    nunu said:

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
    Quite. Joe Biden would've cruised home.
    Any other Democrat would have cruised it.
    Trump continues to be underestimated even as he cruises to victory.
    Not any other Democrat but both Bernie and Biden would be doing much better than Clinton with wwc in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.
    Yep!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    CNN projects Hillary wins California and Hawaii, Trump projected to win Idaho. Oregon and Washington state too close to call
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Trump is looking good for PA. 110k votes behind, catching fast.

    Chester and Dauphin big D counties with 30% in. V close, but I think she holds it.
    Feels like the discussion about Florida a couple of hours ago!
    We'll see; I think she holds her lead in PA.
    Down to 75k with rural districts yet to report and most of the urban districts in. Looks like it will be very, very close.
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Look at the counties with sub 50% counts so far, looks close but I hold by my earlier forecast,
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Just amazing that we are talking about WI and MI tonight.

    We did talk about the Rust Belt Strategy quite a lot in recent weeks.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump also closing in Maine.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Just amazing that we are talking about WI and MI tonight.

    We did talk about the Rust Belt Strategy quite a lot in recent weeks.
    Yeah true, but did anyone actually think it would happen? ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    California in for Hillary.

    Was genuinely starting to wonder about that :D

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    RobD said:

    Just amazing that we are talking about WI and MI tonight.

    The Map.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair is crazy at the moment.
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    More Evangelicals have voted for Trump than voted for Bush, an Evangelical- just think about that - Sky News
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Been in bed the last half hour listening to Radio 4, great entertainment.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Oregon and Washington not called on closing time for the first time since 1988.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Tamara Keith
    Here at Clinton HQ, previously jovial staff have disappeared. Even the intern wrangling surrogates for radio is totally MIA.

    I bet Trump may be starting to work on his speech :D
    He's not done that for 18 months, why would he start now?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Speedy said:

    Oregon and Washington not called on closing time for the first time since 1988.

    :o
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Well, it seems that the effing liberal elite are upping their hate of the ordinary people - we are all racists and swear and smoke and look at cleavages and laugh at fat people - and we are amoeba. So, as in Brexit, it seems now Trump. The people are saying to the elite: F*ck you. On that basis, I would love a Trump presidency. On the other hand, I actually don't because he will run the White House by Twitter. But Clinton is and her type, like Clegg and Blair are awful, awful, awful people. It's their fault. They should be nice the working man. Every man is not a dodgy character. Every white is not a racist, every working class person is not a thickie. Respect us and you get a vote. Otherwise what they see the thickies will start becoming President of the United States.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Hillary Clinton now leads the Electoral College on 190 to Donald Trump's 171
    Trump ahead in the popular vote on 49.1% to Clinton's 46.5%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    HYUFD said:

    CNN projects Hillary wins California and Hawaii, Trump projected to win Idaho. Oregon and Washington state too close to call

    CNBC gives Oregan and Washington to Clinton
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    nunu said:

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
    Quite. Joe Biden would've cruised home.
    Any other Democrat would have cruised it.
    Trump continues to be underestimated even as he cruises to victory.
    Not any other Democrat but both Bernie and Biden would be doing much better than Clinton with wwc in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.
    Bernie and Biden are both compromised regarding behaviour towards women so they wouldn't have been able to run the same playbook against Trump. He would have overwhelmed them but in a different way.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    rcs1000 said:

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
    Alright for sure may be a bit strong, but the same voters that went Brexit and Trump will come out for LP, you can't put too much faith in figures on Juppe after tonight.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:

    Oregon and Washington not called on closing time for the first time since 1988.

    Surely not in 2000? Oregon was extremely close.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MWHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Nothing else.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    Caril Bialik, on 538, says this looks a lot like polling error.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    why did Dems pick her?
    puzzling
  • rcs1000 said:

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
    Yes. Why would they not after tonight? :(
  • Pulpstar said:

    Can Trump slow down a touch, I'm losing £15 a point of my profits for every ECV Hillary is below 250 votes.

    Both my arse and JackW's are competing for the amount of whoop-ass that the ECV market is likely to serve up to us.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    There was no early vote in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania or Michigan. If there were they might of seen this coming.
  • Just backed Hillary at 8.8
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Chris said:

    Caril Bialik, on 538, says this looks a lot like polling error.

    A slight snafu, yes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
    Alright for sure may be a bit strong, but the same voters that went Brexit and Trump will come out for LP, you can't put too much faith in figures on Juppe after tonight.
    30%.

    That's been the FN ceiling in a lot of two way votes in the last three years,
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Cook dropped from the third ball!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    EDW20000 said:

    why did Dems pick her?
    puzzling

    Ask Labour
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    LOL - Fox quote from Clinton headquarters

    "We're expecting a long night. Nothing has ever come easy for Clinton - she's had to fight for everything her whole life"

    Doesn't sound like a winner...
  • rcs1000 said:

    269-269 looking scarily plausible.

    At which point I appoint Amando Iannouci as my personal Lord and Savior. He had the election in Vemployment tied 269-269
  • Just cashed out on Betfair.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    Had a nibble at 8.8, seemed too good to turn down!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Meanwhile Hillary is winning CT by only 6%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Chris said:

    Caril Bialik, on 538, says this looks a lot like polling error.

    No shit
  • Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?

    I think it's <10% minority</p>
    It doesn't have any minorities.
    According to wikipedia it does. 6.3% african american and 1.8% mixed race..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    edited November 2016
    Beeb:

    Clinton finally ahead again on ECVs:

    Clinton 190
    Trump 187
  • Pulpstar said:

    Chris said:

    Caril Bialik, on 538, says this looks a lot like polling error.

    No shit
    :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
    Alright for sure may be a bit strong, but the same voters that went Brexit and Trump will come out for LP, you can't put too much faith in figures on Juppe after tonight.
    30%.

    That's been the FN ceiling in a lot of two way votes in the last three years,
    In the present climate anything is possible, Le Pen is Trump, Juppe Clinton
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    Charles said:

    LOL - Fox quote from Clinton headquarters

    "We're expecting a long night. Nothing has ever come easy for Clinton - she's had to fight for everything her whole life"

    Doesn't sound like a winner...

    She's lawyering up.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Minnesota keeps trending towards Trump . Down to a predicted 1% win by HRC....
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Any news on the 25/1 guy in Utah?

    The NYT are forecasting a Trump victory in Utah with probability 83%.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Just backed Hillary at 8.8

    Just incredible in a tight 2-horse race.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
    Alright for sure may be a bit strong, but the same voters that went Brexit and Trump will come out for LP, you can't put too much faith in figures on Juppe after tonight.
    30%.

    That's been the FN ceiling in a lot of two way votes in the last three years,
    All previous assumptions are out the window now. Le Pen CAN win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?

    I think it's <10% minority</p>
    It doesn't have any minorities.
    According to wikipedia it does. 6.3% african american and 1.8% mixed race..
    Its safer than Michigan then
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230

    Just backed Hillary at 8.8

    I think that is just denial. Trump is going to clear out the mid West. Ohio is the canary that calls this election
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
    Alright for sure may be a bit strong, but the same voters that went Brexit and Trump will come out for LP, you can't put too much faith in figures on Juppe after tonight.
    30%.

    That's been the FN ceiling in a lot of two way votes in the last three years,
    In the present climate anything is possible, Le Pen is Trump, Juppe Clinton
    We'll see.
  • IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Its amazing, the TV networks can ONLY FIND people who voted for Hillary. Republicans even.

    Well most of the leave campaign went into hiding when they actually won
    Nah, we just sought refuge on PB :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    North Carolina projected for Donald Trump
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Both candidates have been at 9 on Betfair in the last 150 minutes!
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889

    1.7 on Clinton popular vote...

    Tissue Price. How would you rate Clinton's chances of winning the popular vote in % terms?
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Hilary 10/1 by 5am
  • DavidL said:

    Just backed Hillary at 8.8

    I think that is just denial. Trump is going to clear out the mid West. Ohio is the canary that calls this election
    There's going to be a mandatory recount in Florida, and possibly other places too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wow. This is for Trump for sure. Looks like a decent EC margin as well. We have truly reached tipping point.

    Looks quite simple, polls wrong from the start and brexit 2.0.

    Marine Le Pen will win in 2017 for sure, despite polls to the contrary. Get betting.

    'for sure'?
    Alright for sure may be a bit strong, but the same voters that went Brexit and Trump will come out for LP, you can't put too much faith in figures on Juppe after tonight.
    30%.

    That's been the FN ceiling in a lot of two way votes in the last three years,
    The week between first and second ballot does give the French a chance to consider before they make the final decision. There is a fair bit of evidence that a lot of people would have thought twice about Brexit if they had realised it might win. Trump, less clear, although I doubt the Clinton leads of recent days did his campaign any harm.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    If Clinton wins PA and MI but loses WI then it will come down to the split votes in Maine and Nebraska or indeed the elector in D.C who says he won't vote for Clinton (Assuming that Alaska does go blue)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Charles said:

    LOL - Fox quote from Clinton headquarters

    "We're expecting a long night. Nothing has ever come easy for Clinton - she's had to fight for everything her whole life"

    Doesn't sound like a winner...

    She was handed everything by Bill.

    She didn't even campaign much, or had any policies.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Probably time to go to bed, and see what winnings I have to collect in the morning.
  • Call me crazy, but I think MI will go to Clinton by a whisker.

    Her problem is WI.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    NYT: MI now close - Clinton only +1.0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    North Carolina called for Trump
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    DavidL said:

    Just backed Hillary at 8.8

    I think that is just denial. Trump is going to clear out the mid West. Ohio is the canary that calls this election
    There's going to be a mandatory recount in Florida, and possibly other places too.
    Which simply delays the final declaration?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Saltire said:

    If Clinton wins PA and MI but loses WI then it will come down to the split votes in Maine and Nebraska or indeed the elector in D.C who says he won't vote for Clinton (Assuming that Alaska does go blue)

    There's reason to believe Alaska will go blue?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Is Theresa May another winner tonight?
  • DavidL said:

    Just backed Hillary at 8.8

    I think that is just denial. Trump is going to clear out the mid West. Ohio is the canary that calls this election
    There's going to be a mandatory recount in Florida, and possibly other places too.
    It has been done I believe: it's automatically triggered. Fox just called Florida for Trump.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Saltire said:

    If Clinton wins PA and MI but loses WI then it will come down to the split votes in Maine and Nebraska or indeed the elector in D.C who says he won't vote for Clinton (Assuming that Alaska does go blue)

    Alaska won't go blue.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    RobD said:

    Saltire said:

    If Clinton wins PA and MI but loses WI then it will come down to the split votes in Maine and Nebraska or indeed the elector in D.C who says he won't vote for Clinton (Assuming that Alaska does go blue)

    There's reason to believe Alaska will go blue?
    That would look miraculous given the way the night has gone
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Charles said:

    LOL - Fox quote from Clinton headquarters

    "We're expecting a long night. Nothing has ever come easy for Clinton - she's had to fight for everything her whole life"

    Doesn't sound like a winner...

    She's lawyering up.
    I'd be boarding a private et to Qatar myself.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nate Silver is giving Trump a 49% chance of winning the election.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Call me crazy, but I think MI will go to Clinton by a whisker.

    Her problem is WI.

    And PA, and MN.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923

    DavidL said:

    Just backed Hillary at 8.8

    I think that is just denial. Trump is going to clear out the mid West. Ohio is the canary that calls this election
    There's going to be a mandatory recount in Florida, and possibly other places too.
    It has been done I believe: it's automatically triggered. Fox just called Florida for Trump.
    FL has been R for about three hours :)
  • Saltire said:

    If Clinton wins PA and MI but loses WI then it will come down to the split votes in Maine and Nebraska or indeed the elector in D.C who says he won't vote for Clinton (Assuming that Alaska does go blue)


    I make it that Trump only needs one of PA, MI, WI or MN to win the Presidency.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    Call me crazy, but I think MI will go to Clinton by a whisker.

    Her problem is WI.

    Isn't WI supposed to be safer than MI?
This discussion has been closed.