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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Donald Trump is E pluribus unum

The chart sump the batshit craziness of tonight as Trump becomes the favourite on Betfair. 1am Trump was an 8% chance. £165m matched so far pic.twitter.com/lGWUsmWWMz

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RobD

OMG

RobD

RobD said:

OMG

A worthy first, I think.

HYUFD

Fox projects Hillary wins Virginia
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/796185035598688258

Sunil_Prasannan

BBC ticker:

Trump 150 ECVs
Clinton 109

New Mexico for Clinton
Missouri for Trump

Scrapheap_as_was

So the cricket is on soon but too late for me.

GIN1138

Like REMAIN and LEAVE...

IanB2

RobD said:

RobD said:

OMG

A worthy first, I think.

Its worthiness undone by the greed of taking second as well

RobD

What did votecastr say for VA?

*innocent face*

RobD

NY Times now at 73% that Trump will win presidency.

Chameleon

Broward, Palm-Beach, Miami Dade all 98%/99%. Florida is trump's.

rcs1000

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

Mortimer

OMG

Speedy

NYT 72% chance Trump wins Presidency.

corporeal

This is quite a night.

RobD

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

RobD said:

OMG

A worthy first, I think.

Its worthiness undone by the greed of taking second as well

I just couldn't help myself, sorry!

Pulpstar

Not too much Donald, losing £15 a ECV from 250 down.

EDW20000

Trump 1.25 trade soon

brokenwheel

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

But everyone was telling me I was wrong to point out this is an electoral college...

HYUFD

Missouri projected for Trump

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

A lot of rural Texas votes still to be counted.

IanB2

New Mexico called for Clinton with home state Johnson on 8%

Speedy

Somehow Trump is doing better in New Jersey right now than Pennsylvania.

rcs1000

A Dem win in NC would make this 269-269, assuming MI goes R and MN stays D. (And NV R, CO D)

PlatoSaid

Ben Shapiro
We could be watching the biggest political miracle in the history of the United States unfolding https://t.co/l8gUv5Fo9A

AndyJS

FPT:

Anyone think Mecklenburg County in North Carolina could turn things around for Clinton in NC?

Tissue_Price

FPT: 1/2 on Hillary to win the popular vote looks huge

Chris

Anyway, can we agree that VoteCastr goes straight in the bin?

rcs1000

brokenwheel said:

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

But everyone was telling me I was wrong to point out this is an electoral college...

The exact opposite of what was forecast by HYUFD

vik

RobD said:

NY Times now at 73% that Trump will win presidency.

Lol!

Just a day ago, the "experts" at the NYT were giving Clinton an 85% chance of victory.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

AndyJS

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

There could be riots if that happens.

Dromedary

rcs1000 said:

A Dem win in NC would make this 269-269, assuming MI goes R and MN stays D. (And NV R, CO D)

Pence is a bargain at 450.

NickPalmer

If Fox is right about VA, then Hillary needs to hold MI/MN/CO (probably) and NH (hmm). Still think she'll edge it.

Tissue_Price

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

As repeatedly advised...

tlg86

Could we see an independence referendum in California?

RobD

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

There could be riots if that happens.

Happened with Gore/Bush!

PlatoSaid

Heat St
But...how could Hillary Clinton not easily win after Beyonce, Jay-Z and Lady Gaga campaigned for her? #ElectionNight https://t.co/ELd2TSROii

Speedy

NYT 77% Trump wins.

RobD

Chris said:

Anyway, can we agree that VoteCastr goes straight in the bin?

Quite right!

Gallowgate

When can they call Florida?

DanSmith

NickPalmer said:

If Fox is right about VA, then Hillary needs to hold MI/MN/CO (probably) and NH (hmm). Still think she'll edge it.

None of those matter if PA goes to Trump.

rcs1000

FL is R.

CO/PA look D.

So close...

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

PA: 250k Clinton vote lead

How much of Philly is in ?

Loads.

Richard_Nabavi

Well, that was a disappointment. I was too slow to close my position and the net result is going to be a loss now pretty much whatever happens, but at least it won't be a big loss.

RobD

Gallowgate said:

When can they call Florida?

Probably playing it super safe. Didn't they have to retract a call on FL in 2000?

williamglenn

tlg86 said:

Could we see an independence referendum in California?

There's no Californian Krankie.

AndyJS

NYT predicting Clinton to win the popular vote by 2 percentage points the last time I looked.

IanB2

The BBC won't call Florida despite it being 99% counted.

Mortimer

When is this going to be called, 10am GMT?

Danny565

People in the crowd at the Clinton event looking on the verge of tears...

Pulpstar

@Tissue_Price What is Clinton's "floor" in terms of ECV ?

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

Well, that was a disappointment. I was too slow to close my position and the net result is going to be a loss now pretty much whatever happens, but at least it won't be a big loss.

Argh, a shame. At least you haven't lost too much!

MaxPB

S&P futures down 4%. :O

PlatoSaid

JUST IN: Donald Trump will win Missouri based on exit poll and vote analysis, @ABC News projects https://t.co/c3TsiADsBx https://t.co/ek8P8Av2Gg

NickPalmer

Erm, and WI too. Too many ifs for comfort.

nielh

I do wonder how this will effect the debate on Scottish independence and trident.

Speedy

Almost all of Milwaukee is now in, Trump still leading in Wisconsin.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

FL is R.

CO/PA look D.

So close...

I'm not so sure about PA.

MarqueeMark

vik said:

RobD said:

NY Times now at 73% that Trump will win presidency.

Lol!

Just a day ago, the "experts" at the NYT were giving Clinton an 85% chance of victory.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Experts, huh?

Sandpit

Hillary is now 4.4 on Betfair.
Over reaction?

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

S&P futures down 4%. :O

Where is USD/EUR?

Sean_F

It seems I underestimated Trump's support. Kudos to Plato.

Mortimer

Really hope people got out of the spreads before they were suspended...

RobD

MarqueeMark said:

vik said:

RobD said:

NY Times now at 73% that Trump will win presidency.

Lol!

Just a day ago, the "experts" at the NYT were giving Clinton an 85% chance of victory.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Experts, huh?

Who needs 'em!

TheScreamingEagles

Dave should have held the EUReferendum after Trump wins.

I don't think Leave would have won in those circumstances

RobD

Sandpit said:

Hillary is now 4.4 on Betfair.
Over reaction?

No, I think you need at least 10 more on the end of your post to fully reflect what a turnaround it is.

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

S&P futures down 4%. :O

Where is USD/EUR?

Down 1.5%

PlatoSaid

If this holds, the GOP will have Presidency, Senate, House, Supreme Court, vast majority of state legislatures.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

brokenwheel said:

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

But everyone was telling me I was wrong to point out this is an electoral college...

The exact opposite of what was forecast by HYUFD

Trump still leads in the popular vote and my bet works either way

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave should have held the EUReferendum after Trump wins.

I don't think Leave would have won in those circumstances

Dave who??

Speedy

NYT 78% Trump wins.

MaxPB

IanB2 said:

The BBC won't call Florida despite it being 99% counted.

Nightmares of hanging chads!

corporeal

Chris said:

Anyway, can we agree that VoteCastr goes straight in the bin?

Eh, to be fair to them they were sticking their necks out into the darkness (to mix my metaphors). Any kind of accuracy we have is from refining things with practice.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

Hillary is now 4.4 on Betfair.
Over reaction?

Yeah, Arizona might just win it for her

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

If this holds, the GOP will have Presidency, Senate, House, Supreme Court, vast majority of state legislatures.

Like Palpatine, unlimited power?

HYUFD

CNN projects Clinton wins New Mexico

RochdalePioneers

PlatoSaid said:

Heat St
But...how could Hillary Clinton not easily win after Beyonce, Jay-Z and Lady Gaga campaigned for her? #ElectionNight https://t.co/ELd2TSROii

And don't forget that brilliant Joss Whedon video with Robert Downey Jr and loads of Hollywood types

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

FL is R.

CO/PA look D.

So close...

I'm not so sure about PA.

Pennsylvania suburbs are still mostly to come, too much focus on the city itself.

EDW20000

Trump 1.25 bid, this is better than Sunderland

AndyJS

Did anyone bet on Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the election?

MikeL

NYT says Trump wins MI by 2.5.

Casino_Royale

Help. I'm getting raped in the Clinton ECV market.

DanSmith

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Hillary is now 4.4 on Betfair.
Over reaction?

Yeah, Arizona might just win it for her

Only if she holds PA...

rcs1000

AndyJS said:

Did anyone bet on Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the election?

Not me.

SouthamObserver

The right will need to start delivering. It will be interesting to see if they do.

shiney2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave should have held the EUReferendum after Trump wins.

I don't think Leave would have won in those circumstances

Yebbut you thought cameron was worth supporting.

TheScreamingEagles

5.2

Andrew

Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Wow this Arizona early vote is actually pretty good for Clinton. Democrats generally do better on Election Day. Trump up just .5

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

brokenwheel said:

rcs1000 said:

Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

But everyone was telling me I was wrong to point out this is an electoral college...

The exact opposite of what was forecast by HYUFD

Trump still leads in the popular vote and my bet works either way

I'm just teasing.

Saltire

Arizona with 51% in
Trump 48.7
Clinton 46.7

Chris

Nate Silver is "overriding" his model by declaring Michigan too close to call (previous forecast. 78.9% chance of a Clinton win).

HYUFD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dave should have held the EUReferendum after Trump wins.

I don't think Leave would have won in those circumstances

Dave who??

Lucky Farage is best friends with the Donald!

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

S&P futures down 4%. :O

Where is USD/EUR?

+1.3%

OUT

Mexican Peso going,
D
O
W
N

rottenborough

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 36m36 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
I am being inundated by hedge fund managers. They are worried about the markets.

corporeal

This could be days until a final result if it's close enough.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Hillary is now 4.4 on Betfair.
Over reaction?

Yeah, Arizona might just win it for her

Hillary is out to 6 now!

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

Help. I'm getting raped in the Clinton ECV market.

Should have followed Mike's lead

Speedy

NYT 80% Trump wins.

Sandpit

Mexican peso off 10% against the dollar.

Dadge

John King is starting to enjoy this too much!