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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Donald Trump is E pluribus unum

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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    OUT said:

    Are they looking for votes down the back of the sofa in Florida?

    They don't count all of them until tomorrow.
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    RobD said:

    Social media tomorrow morning is going to make Brexit look like a Beatrix Potter book.

    as @Pulpstar put it, Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    On the plus side, it might (just might) divert some of the relentless tedium of Brexit attacks, from the usual suspects, onto him instead.

    Or they'll try and blame Brexit for it too. Along with the clap. The fact their girlfriend left them, and the reason their dog is playing up.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,318
    Most of Wayne still to come is Detroit.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950
    RobD said:

    Social media tomorrow morning is going to make Brexit look like a Beatrix Potter book.

    as @Pulpstar put it, Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    That was a brilliant! Twitter is going to go completely bonkers if Trump wins!
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    538's model, taking into account states called, now gives Clinton a 50% chance of victory.

    I'm surprised they don't "override" the whole thing, as too close to call.
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    Seeing a lot of tweets saying this is not over. And I was thinking of going to bed and planning my nuclear shelter.

    Gina Miller has more work to do.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm itching to call Wisconsin for Trump.

    But not yet.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    Chris said:

    538's model, taking into account states called, now gives Clinton a 50% chance of victory.

    I'm surprised they don't "override" the whole thing, as too close to call.

    I really wonder how it would change if they put FL in Trump's column.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    MaxPB said:

    Trump 130k votes behind in PA, pretty much all of Philly reported in, quite a few rural areas still to count.

    Chester, Philly suburbs, is only at 32%, so I think PA is the reverse FL where Trump falls just short.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    More effing stupid graphics on Florida with Jezza Vine on BBC.
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    Christmas is cancelled. Good night all.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    The thing is, there never was a Clinton firewall. There was a Clinton lead, which is not the same thing.

    Exactly. I have no idea why her campaign / pundits were looking at things like a 3-4% in Pennsylvania, and assuming it was completely in the bag no matter what.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    I remember being told that identity politics for whites would never work in the US. Looks like it already has. Well done Dems, you have brought this on yourselves by setting blacks against whites all those years ago. Fucks sake.
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    Chris said:

    538's model, taking into account states called, now gives Clinton a 50% chance of victory.

    I'm surprised they don't "override" the whole thing, as too close to call.

    They won the election but have embarrassed themselves tonight
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    Why is Trump expected to win PA by NYT when he's losing there currently?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:
    It's going to get much closer soon, Hillary is only winning Minneapolis and by much worse than Obama, she is losing the rest of the state.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    White male democrats have come out and voted Trump like madmen.

    Must be the case.

    Essentially Hillary "West Virginiised" the whole country.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Speedy said:

    I'm itching to call Wisconsin for Trump.

    But not yet.

    Madison is still to come, and that's a college town...
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    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995

    Why is Trump expected to win PA by NYT when he's losing there currently?

    I think it's to do with the undeclared precincts from each county, which they are forecasting.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Why is Trump expected to win PA by NYT when he's losing there currently?

    Rural areas not reported?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    I think Trump is looking good for PA. 110k votes behind, catching fast.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408
    Is the USA the new Labour Party? No room for a woman.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Why is Trump expected to win PA by NYT when he's losing there currently?

    Outstanding precincts.

    Trump has closed in fast in Pennsylvania.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    Finally Nevada start counting, wonder if that will drop Trump's way as well.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Pulpstar said:

    White male democrats have come out and voted Trump like madmen.

    Must be the case.

    Essentially Hillary "West Virginiised" the whole country.

    As the BBC keeps saying, women just haven't broken for Clinton to the expected extent.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 94% Trump wins.
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    Pulpstar said:

    White male democrats have come out and voted Trump like madmen.

    Must be the case.

    Essentially Hillary "West Virginiised" the whole country.

    John Harris picked this up in the primaries in states where people could choose on the day if they wanted to partake in democrats or republican ones & he found loads of unionized workers voting trump.
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Fox call North Carolina for Trump
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    BBC reporting website for immigration to Canada has crashed
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Artist said:

    Finally Nevada start counting, wonder if that will drop Trump's way as well.

    Nevada should be safe for Clinton.

    Safe-ish.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,503
    Artist said:

    Finally Nevada start counting, wonder if that will drop Trump's way as well.

    The late Nevada voters will have heard all the early good news for Clinton, which won't have helped her any.
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    Trump is looking very good for President. I just wish he looked like a good President.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    MaxPB said:

    I think Trump is looking good for PA. 110k votes behind, catching fast.

    Chester and Dauphin big D counties with 30% in. V close, but I think she holds it.
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    vikvik Posts: 157
    DavidL said:

    Is the USA the new Labour Party? No room for a woman.

    It's not just "a" woman ... it's Hillary Clinton, with all the Clinton baggage.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    CNN analyst "I wouldn't call anything encouraging for Clinton right now"!
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,745
    Pulpstar said:

    White male democrats have come out and voted Trump like madmen.

    Must be the case.

    Essentially Hillary "West Virginiised" the whole country.

    The Reagan Democrats are back.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,175
    Michigan 48% in
    Trump 48.5%
    Clinton 46.4%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/michigan
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT Trump crosses 300 E.V.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clinton is 110,000 votes ahead in Pennsylvania with 65% counted.

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    538:
    There’s been a lot of talk about Clinton trailing in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania may be a far bigger problem. Clinton is up by just 4 percentage points, and that lead is slipping as more of the vote comes in from outside the Philadelphia media market. Clinton cannot lose Pennsylvania and win the election.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Its amazing, the TV networks can ONLY FIND people who voted for Hillary. Republicans even.
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    1.7 on Clinton popular vote...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,503
    vik said:

    DavidL said:

    Is the USA the new Labour Party? No room for a woman.

    It's not just "a" woman ... it's Hillary Clinton, with all the Clinton baggage.
    The question I guess is whether she was hit by the last weekend's publicity (given that the early vote appears to have been OK for her) or whether, like Brexit, the polls have basically been wrong all along?
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    MaxPB said:

    I remember being told that identity politics for whites would never work in the US. Looks like it already has. Well done Dems, you have brought this on yourselves by setting blacks against whites all those years ago. Fucks sake.

    Damn LBJ and those pesky civil rights!

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    nunu said:

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
    Quite. Joe Biden would've cruised home.
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Beginning to wish I had followed my own idea and backed Colorado and Penn on the Clinton firewall list @20/1 each as a proxy bet on a Trump win.
    Still so long as Clinton wins the popular vote will still be in profit on this election if not by much
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    BBC reporting website for immigration to Canada has crashed

    Oh, that old chestnut!
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    Damnit.

    I had a thread planned with the headline

    'So we have the first President to have sex with another President, that we know of'
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    CNN is winning the election at the moment.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    HYUFD said:

    Michigan 48% in
    Trump 48.5%
    Clinton 46.4%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/michigan

    Wayne County the key.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    Pulpstar said:

    Its amazing, the TV networks can ONLY FIND people who voted for Hillary. Republicans even.

    Shy Trumpsters? titter...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,503
    Pulpstar said:

    Its amazing, the TV networks can ONLY FIND people who voted for Hillary. Republicans even.

    Well most of the leave campaign went into hiding when they actually won
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149
    IanB2 said:

    vik said:

    DavidL said:

    Is the USA the new Labour Party? No room for a woman.

    It's not just "a" woman ... it's Hillary Clinton, with all the Clinton baggage.
    The question I guess is whether she was hit by the last weekend's publicity (given that the early vote appears to have been OK for her) or whether, like Brexit, the polls have basically been wrong all along?
    I think it's the latter. The exit polls show that most people made up their minds a long time ago.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Danny565 said:

    nunu said:

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
    Quite. Joe Biden would've cruised home.
    Any other Democrat would have cruised it.
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    CNN data guy is now each time they go to him madly clicking his map desparately trying to find possible counties that could get lots of Clinton votes.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    AndyJS said:

    Clinton is 110,000 votes ahead in Pennsylvania with 65% counted.

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Down to 103k at 66%
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,175
    Pennsylvania 66% in
    Clinton 49.5%
    Trump 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Trump is looking good for PA. 110k votes behind, catching fast.

    Chester and Dauphin big D counties with 30% in. V close, but I think she holds it.
    Feels like the discussion about Florida a couple of hours ago!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    Goodharts law.

    The pollsters probably did not believe the numbers so they changed them to suit what they thought was accurate.

    It happened in Britain too.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141

    Trump is looking very good for President. I just wish he looked like a good President.

    Maybe his minders will put him in a straitjacket and not let him out of it for four years.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Dadge said:

    CNN is winning the election at the moment.

    CNN TV, and NYTimes online. Blowing the competition away.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clinton is 110,000 votes ahead in Pennsylvania with 65% counted.

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Down to 103k at 66%
    Down to 82k at 67%
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    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    Gulp.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Tamara Keith
    Here at Clinton HQ, previously jovial staff have disappeared. Even the intern wrangling surrogates for radio is totally MIA.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hillary 82k lead in PA, Trump catching fast like a rocket.
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    I see Minnesota is starting to move towards Trump on NYT. He could sweep the rust belt except Illinois
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Got up feeling a bit shivery earlier, decided to stick on the heating - and the television set. Oh God.

    Based on a quick reading of the outstanding states, I reckon that Clinton absolutely must keep hold of PA, MI and WI - all of which look close to some degree - in order to regain the initiative. Early indications are that AZ will hold for the Republicans, so it must be down to those.

    If Clinton holds all those three, then either NV or NH should be enough for her to scrape home. If she doesn't, Trump wins.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    nunu said:

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
    Quite. Joe Biden would've cruised home.
    Any other Democrat would have cruised it.
    Trump continues to be underestimated even as he cruises to victory.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?

    Not really.

    The white population has traditionally been more left-leaning than elsewhere (they like to think of themselves as "nicer" than the average American), but who knows tonight.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    Tony said:

    Dadge said:

    CNN is winning the election at the moment.

    CNN TV, and NYTimes online. Blowing the competition away.
    Also have 538 as I enjoy schadenfreude :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    PlatoSaid said:

    Tamara Keith
    Here at Clinton HQ, previously jovial staff have disappeared. Even the intern wrangling surrogates for radio is totally MIA.

    I bet Trump may be starting to work on his speech :D
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Clinton PA lead down to 80k. Trump reeling her in, I think he wins by 20-30k.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Trump is looking good for PA. 110k votes behind, catching fast.

    Chester and Dauphin big D counties with 30% in. V close, but I think she holds it.
    Feels like the discussion about Florida a couple of hours ago!
    We'll see; I think she holds her lead in PA.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Stefan Molyneux
    I wonder if Hillary's concession speech will be a plea offer.
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    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    Gulp.

    Time to sign up for an EU Army
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    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?

    I think it's <10% minority
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Lets not forget N.H.

    Trump with a 4% lead with 57% in.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,175
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    nunu said:

    CNN presenters getting very angry at the pollsters.

    I'm very angry at the Democrats. Picking Mrs. Establishment when it was clear people are sick of centrist established politicians.
    Quite. Joe Biden would've cruised home.
    Any other Democrat would have cruised it.
    Arguably any other Republican too but it was the primary voters who picked them as was their right
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    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    Gulp.

    Time to sign up for an EU Army
    Good trolling.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Nevada 1% Trump +41.3

    Errm
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    edited November 2016
    The remaining counties in PA is very telling.. Philadelphia 92% reported, and the other top three D areas are between 75 and 91%.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2016
    Blimey. Backed Trump. Went to bed. Now it looks like I'm still dreaming.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    Got up feeling a bit shivery earlier, decided to stick on the heating - and the television set. Oh God.

    Based on a quick reading of the outstanding states, I reckon that Clinton absolutely must keep hold of PA, MI and WI - all of which look close to some degree - in order to regain the initiative. Early indications are that AZ will hold for the Republicans, so it must be down to those.

    If Clinton holds all those three, then either NV or NH should be enough for her to scrape home. If she doesn't, Trump wins.

    Incredibly close...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149

    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    You've got nothing to worry about.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    Gulp.

    This is why I think there could be a shift away from Brexit here. As much as people undoubtedly hate the EU, imo people are going to think the United States of Trump is a bigger threat, and therefore Brits might suddenly feel safer sticking with the big gang in the playground.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    MaxPB said:

    Clinton PA lead down to 80k. Trump reeling her in, I think he wins by 20-30k.

    I think so too.

    To think I nearly went to bed....
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bill Mitchell
    My Twitter feed received 51 million hits tonight. :-)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995

    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    You've got nothing to worry about.
    You must be quite happy tonight. You were confident in the rust belt strategy!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think we're going to have a winner any time soon. Could be days.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Can Trump slow down a touch, I'm losing £15 a point of my profits for every ECV Hillary is below 250 votes.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?

    I think it's <10% minority</p>
    It doesn't have any minorities.
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    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    You've got nothing to worry about.
    You're in touch with the Kremlin?

    Phew.
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    Any news on the 25/1 guy in Utah?
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    TonyTony Posts: 159

    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    Gulp.

    Only positive I see from electing this lunatic is it massively increases May's leverage in the Brexit negotiations. Lot of worried Eastern Europeans will suddenly really love the British Army.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149
    RobD said:

    Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.

    You've got nothing to worry about.
    You must be quite happy tonight. You were confident in the rust belt strategy!
    Vindication is sweet! :)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,408
    This is starting to remind me of Brexit after Sunderland. Surely it is all over.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Politico: Florida for Trump.
This discussion has been closed.