The thing is, there never was a Clinton firewall. There was a Clinton lead, which is not the same thing.
Exactly. I have no idea why her campaign / pundits were looking at things like a 3-4% in Pennsylvania, and assuming it was completely in the bag no matter what.
I remember being told that identity politics for whites would never work in the US. Looks like it already has. Well done Dems, you have brought this on yourselves by setting blacks against whites all those years ago. Fucks sake.
White male democrats have come out and voted Trump like madmen.
Must be the case.
Essentially Hillary "West Virginiised" the whole country.
John Harris picked this up in the primaries in states where people could choose on the day if they wanted to partake in democrats or republican ones & he found loads of unionized workers voting trump.
538: There’s been a lot of talk about Clinton trailing in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania may be a far bigger problem. Clinton is up by just 4 percentage points, and that lead is slipping as more of the vote comes in from outside the Philadelphia media market. Clinton cannot lose Pennsylvania and win the election.
Is the USA the new Labour Party? No room for a woman.
It's not just "a" woman ... it's Hillary Clinton, with all the Clinton baggage.
The question I guess is whether she was hit by the last weekend's publicity (given that the early vote appears to have been OK for her) or whether, like Brexit, the polls have basically been wrong all along?
I remember being told that identity politics for whites would never work in the US. Looks like it already has. Well done Dems, you have brought this on yourselves by setting blacks against whites all those years ago. Fucks sake.
Beginning to wish I had followed my own idea and backed Colorado and Penn on the Clinton firewall list @20/1 each as a proxy bet on a Trump win. Still so long as Clinton wins the popular vote will still be in profit on this election if not by much
Is the USA the new Labour Party? No room for a woman.
It's not just "a" woman ... it's Hillary Clinton, with all the Clinton baggage.
The question I guess is whether she was hit by the last weekend's publicity (given that the early vote appears to have been OK for her) or whether, like Brexit, the polls have basically been wrong all along?
I think it's the latter. The exit polls show that most people made up their minds a long time ago.
Got up feeling a bit shivery earlier, decided to stick on the heating - and the television set. Oh God.
Based on a quick reading of the outstanding states, I reckon that Clinton absolutely must keep hold of PA, MI and WI - all of which look close to some degree - in order to regain the initiative. Early indications are that AZ will hold for the Republicans, so it must be down to those.
If Clinton holds all those three, then either NV or NH should be enough for her to scrape home. If she doesn't, Trump wins.
Apologies if this sounds blunt, but does Wisconsin have any massive black populations tucked away ?
Not really.
The white population has traditionally been more left-leaning than elsewhere (they like to think of themselves as "nicer" than the average American), but who knows tonight.
Got up feeling a bit shivery earlier, decided to stick on the heating - and the television set. Oh God.
Based on a quick reading of the outstanding states, I reckon that Clinton absolutely must keep hold of PA, MI and WI - all of which look close to some degree - in order to regain the initiative. Early indications are that AZ will hold for the Republicans, so it must be down to those.
If Clinton holds all those three, then either NV or NH should be enough for her to scrape home. If she doesn't, Trump wins.
Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.
Gulp.
This is why I think there could be a shift away from Brexit here. As much as people undoubtedly hate the EU, imo people are going to think the United States of Trump is a bigger threat, and therefore Brits might suddenly feel safer sticking with the big gang in the playground.
Biggest worry for me about Trump is what now happens to NATO, and what Russia does in the Baltics.
Gulp.
Only positive I see from electing this lunatic is it massively increases May's leverage in the Brexit negotiations. Lot of worried Eastern Europeans will suddenly really love the British Army.
Comments
Or they'll try and blame Brexit for it too. Along with the clap. The fact their girlfriend left them, and the reason their dog is playing up.
I'm surprised they don't "override" the whole thing, as too close to call.
But not yet.
Must be the case.
Essentially Hillary "West Virginiised" the whole country.
Trump has closed in fast in Pennsylvania.
Safe-ish.
Trump 48.5%
Clinton 46.4%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/michigan
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
There’s been a lot of talk about Clinton trailing in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania may be a far bigger problem. Clinton is up by just 4 percentage points, and that lead is slipping as more of the vote comes in from outside the Philadelphia media market. Clinton cannot lose Pennsylvania and win the election.
Still so long as Clinton wins the popular vote will still be in profit on this election if not by much
I had a thread planned with the headline
'So we have the first President to have sex with another President, that we know of'
Clinton 49.5%
Trump 47%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
The pollsters probably did not believe the numbers so they changed them to suit what they thought was accurate.
It happened in Britain too.
Gulp.
Here at Clinton HQ, previously jovial staff have disappeared. Even the intern wrangling surrogates for radio is totally MIA.
Based on a quick reading of the outstanding states, I reckon that Clinton absolutely must keep hold of PA, MI and WI - all of which look close to some degree - in order to regain the initiative. Early indications are that AZ will hold for the Republicans, so it must be down to those.
If Clinton holds all those three, then either NV or NH should be enough for her to scrape home. If she doesn't, Trump wins.
The white population has traditionally been more left-leaning than elsewhere (they like to think of themselves as "nicer" than the average American), but who knows tonight.
I wonder if Hillary's concession speech will be a plea offer.
Trump with a 4% lead with 57% in.
Errm
To think I nearly went to bed....
My Twitter feed received 51 million hits tonight. :-)
Phew.