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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Donald Trump is E pluribus unum

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are still very much in play.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    AndyJS said:

    Did anyone bet on Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the election?

    An hour ago I bet 1.3k @ 5/1
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Andrew said:

    Nate Cohn
    @Nate_Cohn
    Wow this Arizona early vote is actually pretty good for Clinton. Democrats generally do better on Election Day. Trump up just .5

    Nah....it just doesn't compute that she could get a big swing in AZ, against the movements elsewhere.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    Chris said:

    Nate Silver is "overriding" his model by declaring Michigan too close to call (previous forecast. 78.9% chance of a Clinton win).

    He still has FL as 50/50
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,751
    When Bush won (twice) we realised that the USA is nothing like the UK. With Obama, we fogot that lesson. Now, it is biting us in the arse again.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Speedy said:

    NYT 80% Trump wins.

    Why is it going up, are they really confident that he wins Michigan and/or Pennsylvania?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,155
    rottenborough said:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 36m36 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    I am being inundated by hedge fund managers. They are worried about the markets.

    He means they want his head for telling everyone Clinton had won.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    Clinton lead in PA steady, a little north of 200k, 51% counted.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rottenborough said:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 36m36 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    I am being inundated by hedge fund managers. They are worried about the markets.

    What on earth do they want Luntz to do about it???
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2016
    Iowa looking as if it might be surprisingly tight too.

    Michigan+Arizona still gives Trump 269 though, and a vote in the House (except maybe for faithless electors?)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,617
    So a President Trump with GOP control of the House and Senate....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    5.3 for Clinton on Betfair is far too high IMO.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Chris said:

    Nate Silver is "overriding" his model by declaring Michigan too close to call (previous forecast. 78.9% chance of a Clinton win).

    He's throwing maths in the bin and looking at votes instead.

    Pollsters and analysts not coming out very well tonight.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    Andrew said:

    Iowa looking as if it might be surprisingly tight too.

    Clinton is losing my lots of small margins.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

    There could be riots if that happens.
    Great.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,512
    edited November 2016
    SouthamObserver said:

    The right will need to start delivering. It will be interesting to see if they do.

    But war is historically their fallback strategy
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    I've just bought a tiny amount of Clinton.
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    Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    Dow Futures down 600+ according to NBC.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,312
    Donald getting a victory surge may be the exception.

    https://twitter.com/cdlowell/status/796184658497196033
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,447
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 36m36 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    I am being inundated by hedge fund managers. They are worried about the markets.

    What on earth do they want Luntz to do about it???
    Tell them this isn't happening.
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    DanSmith said:

    Speedy said:

    NYT 80% Trump wins.

    Why is it going up, are they really confident that he wins Michigan and/or Pennsylvania?
    His project margin in Michigan/Wisconsin keeps going up as more results come in.
    So their confidence level he wins those increases.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida

    51 out of 6027 precincts remain. It must be called soon, surely?
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    DanSmith said:

    Speedy said:

    NYT 80% Trump wins.

    Why is it going up, are they really confident that he wins Michigan and/or Pennsylvania?
    They have him at almost certain to win Ohio, Fla and NC plus leading in PA, WI and MI.

    I bet Nate Silver is glad he allowed more uncertainty in his model
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So a President Trump with GOP control of the House and Senate....

    The USA will be reorganised into the First Galactic Empire!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    rcs1000 said:

    I've just bought a tiny amount of Clinton.

    I think if she goes out towards 8 I'll have a look.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So a President Trump with GOP control of the House and Senate....

    And a Republican majority on SCOTUS.

    He will be immensely powerful.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    NYT's current projection could give Trump as many as 305, including PA and IA. This is turning into a rout.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,185
    Iowa 16% in
    Clinton 59.5%
    Trump 35.5%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/iowa
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,512
    AndyJS said:

    5.3 for Clinton on Betfair is far too high IMO.

    Not with Clinton needing to win every single close call
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    Must have been some black voters for Trump methinks.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just bought a tiny amount of Clinton.

    I think if she goes out towards 8 I'll have a look.
    Ohio called for Trumo
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Irony: Clinton wins national vote, loses Presidency.

    A lot of rural Texas votes still to be counted.
    So is a lot of California....
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,522
    AndyJS said:

    5.3 for Clinton on Betfair is far too high IMO.

    Hmm. I agree. Though I am not optimistic, there are ways back for her. They are narrowing, but there are ways.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,155
    Pulpstar said:

    Must have been some black voters for Trump methinks.

    Yep. That was always on the cards IMO.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So a President Trump with GOP control of the House and Senate....

    And a Republican majority on SCOTUS.

    He will be immensely powerful.

    God bless the USA
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 81% Trump wins.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just bought a tiny amount of Clinton.

    I think if she goes out towards 8 I'll have a look.
    Ohio called for Trumo
    NY Times saying by 8-9(!) points.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NYT's current projection could give Trump as many as 305, including PA and IA. This is turning into a rout.

    233 ECV Clinton = £255 loss on spreads for me.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,385
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So a President Trump with GOP control of the House and Senate....

    *giggles* But but but it was supposed to be such a Clinton landslide that DNC took both houses too!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    edited November 2016
    Ohio called for the Donald now. Going to be a very long night indeed.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Downfall spoofs only a matter of time.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Well, now I've stopped betting I can start drinking..
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't know how anyone can call Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania at the moment.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just bought a tiny amount of Clinton.

    I think if she goes out towards 8 I'll have a look.
    Ohio called for Trumo
    Finally.
    He was only winning it by 11%.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,185
    Hillary of course won Iowa in the primary, Trump lost it. Hillary lost Michigan, Trump win it. Both won Florida and North Carolina
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Bricklayers in the southern border states rubbing their hands.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,512
    edited November 2016
    SandyRentool said:

    When Bush won (twice) we realised that the USA is nothing like the UK. With Obama, we fogot that lesson. Now, it is biting us in the arse again.

    Yet tonight is all too familiar to us already
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    John King is keeping a close eye on Wayne County MI - hints that if Trump gets 40% there then it's curtains for HRC
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    Sandpit said:

    Ohio called for the Donald now. Going to be a very long night indeed.

    When will CNN call it (I don't want to change channel, their coverage is great!)
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,963
    AndyJS said:

    Did anyone bet on Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the election?

    Long time lurker, first time poster.

    I am currently on Trump for £90 at an average of 5/1. I put £5 on next president to lose popular vote at 7.2 on Betfair earlier this evening.

    I owe pretty much all my knowledge to this site (though I came damn close to cashing in at a 50% loss at 1 am!)

    Thank you all for your insightful commentary.

    Time to cash in or see it through?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Iowa going to Clinton sets up the tie - or ME-2 swinging a 270-268 win for Trump
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,185
    BBC projects Trump wins Ohio
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    Beebs calls OH for Trump
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    CNN commentators getting a bit rattled - interrupting each other, desperately trying to fit in ad breaks. Still a good standard though.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,155
    So, the Trump TV launch is off to a good start!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    AndyJS said:

    I don't know how anyone can call Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania at the moment.

    Which is clearly positive for Trump.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    A lot of Yanks are going to be seeing these CNN Lebanon ads and thinking "Hmmmm....."
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    AndyJS said:

    I don't know how anyone can call Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania at the moment.

    Incredible how it's turned around. Trump only needs one of them, Clinton has to win all of them.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Well, now I've stopped betting I can start drinking..

    I think doing neither in large quantities is better.
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    FBI wot won it
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 82% Trump wins.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Pulpstar said:

    Must have been some black voters for Trump methinks.

    Yes. Barry got something like 95% of them, there were always going to be a few switching.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    DanSmith said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't know how anyone can call Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania at the moment.

    Incredible how it's turned around. Trump only needs one of them, Clinton has to win all of them.
    Something something firewall :D
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So a President Trump with GOP control of the House and Senate....

    The USA will be reorganised into the First Galactic Empire!
    Good news for Death Star manufacturers.....
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    CNN and NBC call Ohio for Trump
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Gold up 3.7% since 1am.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    kyf_100 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Did anyone bet on Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the election?

    Long time lurker, first time poster.

    I am currently on Trump for £90 at an average of 5/1. I put £5 on next president to lose popular vote at 7.2 on Betfair earlier this evening.

    I owe pretty much all my knowledge to this site (though I came damn close to cashing in at a 50% loss at 1 am!)

    Thank you all for your insightful commentary.

    Time to cash in or see it through?
    Welcome!
    And well done!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    MI truly is the surprise of the night.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MarqueeMark said:

    A lot of Yanks are going to be seeing these CNN Lebanon ads and thinking "Hmmmm....."

    They get a different CNN and different ads.

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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    Trump isn't going to lose Iowa people, the only reason it's blue at the moment is because the cities are returning first.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    PlatoSaid said:

    CNN and NBC call Ohio for Trump

    Wish they'd call FL too, I think he can't lose it now.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited November 2016
    Cnn guy doing a lot of "well we need this urban area to come out big for clinton"...sounds rather remicient of the brexit vote when we were told just wait for the cities like Birmingham and manchester and of course London.
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    If Hilary gets PA/WI and IA doesn't that level it up?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,185
    CNN projects Ohio for Trump
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    10m
    Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
    We have Trump as a slight favorite in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, Clinton as a slight fav in WI. She needs all three.

    Looks like FOP is right and Trump will win it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    kyf_100 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Did anyone bet on Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the election?

    Long time lurker, first time poster.

    I am currently on Trump for £90 at an average of 5/1. I put £5 on next president to lose popular vote at 7.2 on Betfair earlier this evening.

    I owe pretty much all my knowledge to this site (though I came damn close to cashing in at a 50% loss at 1 am!)

    Thank you all for your insightful commentary.

    Time to cash in or see it through?
    Welcome. Always nice to meet the lurkers on a big event like this.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Anyone wishing to mock me should start forming a queue now.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Anyone see how Maine2 went?

    Clinton PA+IA+NV+ME2 = 269-269, and then we have all manner of fun.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump's margin in Texas is so small is skews the national vote.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fox calls Colorado for Clinton.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    NY Times up to 86%, almost 'Likely', that Trump wins the presidency.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Bad luck for Alistair as Stein is over 1% with the west coast still to come, surely his under 1% bet will be lost!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 86% Trump wins.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    Democratic Ground Game = Labour Ground Game
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    So that Clinton's ground game then......
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    Alistair said:

    Anyone wishing to mock me should start forming a queue now.

    Na, you only get mercilessly mocked if you leave and never come back!
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    next stop HRC 1.15, get ready to close out
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    VA called for the Dems
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    To be fair to Alistair, they just used the word 'ground game' on CNN!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,185
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,085
    It's all on Michigan
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    CNN projects Ohio for Trump

    Yay a bet comes in
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    So trump will win 8% of the AA vote?
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    YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,005
    Trump up 143k in NC, 84% of vote in (3.8million)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 87% Trump wins.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    More 1/2 available on Clinton for the popular vote. Am I missing something?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    YossariansChild said:

    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.

    Slightly homophobic, but I snorted with laughter nonetheless.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Bad luck for Alistair as Stein is over 1% with the west coast still to come, surely his under 1% bet will be lost!

    Nooooooooooooo
This discussion has been closed.