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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Donald Trump is E pluribus unum

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    So Oprah Winfrey the Dem nominee in 2020?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Do we know who is behind this / model they are using?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    Hillary is still very much in this race.....
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796192747912826880
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Come on Michigan. Save us.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Do we know who is behind this / model they are using?
    It is using real data, as the projections for each state changes as the votes come in. They have FL as a slam dunk for Trump now, which must be based on what their model expects from the missing votes.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tissue_Price said:

    More 1/2 available on Clinton for the popular vote. Am I missing something?

    No.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,753
    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Now into the 'likely' box!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
    On present trends her lead in California will be down on Obama's lead in 2012, she needs a really big lead there to be sure of overtaking Trump in the national popular vote
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    YossariansChild said:

    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.

    Jack's ARSE is no good for anti-establishment candidates facing off against the establishment. He was out by 5 points on Sindy, 5 points on Brexit and looks to be out by a similar amount in the US.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Shocking graphic on CNN just now showing loads of WI counties turning red> Small pop but tells a big story
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Wow, Exit poll had Ohio dead even.
    He's winning it by 9%.

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    BBC just flashed TRUMP WINS VIRGINIA

    Muppets
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    It's all on Michigan

    Clinton probably has a 300,000 margin still to come from Wayne County.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    SandyRentool said:

    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Now into the 'likely' box!
    87% ;)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    England win the toss and bat.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    NYT 86% Trump wins.

    Too high IMO.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    Overall 52% reported, but PA suburbs stll 30%, Pittsburgh also way below 50%.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686
    Iowa looks funny. Huge Clinton lead with 9% in.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Tony said:

    Wow, Exit poll had Ohio dead even.
    He's winning it by 9%.

    What did votecastr have it as? LOL
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MaxPB said:

    YossariansChild said:

    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.

    Jack's ARSE is no good for anti-establishment candidates facing off against the establishment. He was out by 5 points on Sindy, 5 points on Brexit and looks to be out by a similar amount in the US.

    Or no good on binary choices.

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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    If he's won Ohio by 10+ points I don't see how he doesn't take PA as well.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Oh is Trump. Well at least I got one state right on my prediction.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,386
    MarqueeMark said:

    Democratic Ground Game = Labour Ground Game

    We don't have a ground game any more. The new members advise me that door knocking is so old and that all we need is social media and The Canary to convert non-voters to nailed on Labour votes
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Get on the draw, if the world ends they will abandon
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
    On present trends her lead in California will be down on Obama's lead in 2012, she needs a really big lead there to be sure of overtaking Trump in the national popular vote
    50 quid?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    Tony said:

    Wow, Exit poll had Ohio dead even.
    He's winning it by 9%.

    But why not, if the reason the non-exit polls were wrong was shy Trumpers? They're not going to be any less shy just because it's election day.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Andrew said:

    Anyone see how Maine2 went?

    Clinton PA+IA+NV+ME2 = 269-269, and then we have all manner of fun.

    The NYT expect Clinton to win all four electoral votes for Maine.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Tissue_Price said:

    BBC just flashed TRUMP WINS VIRGINIA

    Muppets

    Their hands are probably shaking a lot at the moment.

    Mine are.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Won't a lot of West Coast Democrats stay at home now?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    Overall 52% reported, but PA suburbs stll 30%, Pittsburgh also way below 50%.
    He will win it, look at the massive lead he won Ohio by.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    BBC flashed "Trump wins Virginia" I just screamed at the TV. 5 seconds later "Clinton winsVirginia"
    Even the BBC are in on it tonight. I think I've had as much as I can handle for one night.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    DavidL said:

    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.

    Could he win WI, MI, OH and PA? :o
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Good news.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    DanSmith said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    If he's won Ohio by 10+ points I don't see how he doesn't take PA as well.
    Pennsylvania and surburbs are very different from Dayton.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Hillary ignored her friends.

    Took Wisconsin for granted.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hillary's "deplorables" comment doesn't seem such a good idea now.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686
    Anyone got a national turnout forecast?
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hillary is still very much in this race.....

    Errr I make it that she now has to win ALL of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.

    Could he win WI, MI, OH and PA? :o
    He could.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    The VIX (volatility index) is up by 7%.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    YossariansChild said:

    Jacks ARSE looking like it just stayed over at a Michael Barrymore pool party.

    Lol
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    edited November 2016
    88% Trump for Presidency

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 88% Trump wins.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,512
    JennyFreeman said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hillary is still very much in this race.....

    Errr I make it that she now has to win ALL of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota
    And the Great Lakes states are looking the worst for her of all so far
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470
    Clinton gets VA

    So that makes
    Trump 168
    Clinton 122
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686
    AndyJS said:

    Hillary's "deplorables" comment doesn't seem such a good idea now.

    It was a fucking stupid thing to say in the first place.

    She ran a Guardianista/ Poly Toynbee type campaign. IN AMERICA.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    RobD said:

    88% Trump for Presidency

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

    As high as Clinton was at the start of the night

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    JennyFreeman said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hillary is still very much in this race.....

    Errr I make it that she now has to win ALL of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota
    But they are all still in play for her.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    brokenwheel said:

    Trump isn't going to lose Iowa people, the only reason it's blue at the moment is because the cities are returning first.

    Agreed. Conversely I'm still sceptical that she'll lose MI.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    538 now has it 52% Clinton, 47% Trump, and that's with FL still as a 50/50 split.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The Ohio result is massive. It puts the rust belt in play. Michigan Minnesota and Wisconsin all in play as a result. Key parts of the fire wall, well, on fire.

    Could he win WI, MI, OH and PA? :o
    Don't think Pa but he doesn't need it if he gets the others.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The funny bit is that the national polls are OK - Clinton by c. 2%.
    But Clinton is losing almost every battleground state.

    Trump still leads the national popular vote by 2.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

    In the EC he is still over 100 from victory on 167
    Clinton will win the national vote comfortably because West Coast.
    On present trends her lead in California will be down on Obama's lead in 2012, she needs a really big lead there to be sure of overtaking Trump in the national popular vote
    50 quid?
    I presently stand to win a little over that if the winner of the popular vote loses the EC, so no am not going to risk that thankyou. As I said my bet wins either way (though may come back to you once the California returns are in). However if Trump falls just short in Michigan or Pennsylvania but cuts Clinton's lead in California it is certainly possible he wins the popular vote but not the EC
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Get on the draw, if the world ends they will abandon
    Cook will still be not out and unsweaty among the cinders.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    rcs1000 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump is closing in on Hillary in Pennsylvania fast.

    If he's won Ohio by 10+ points I don't see how he doesn't take PA as well.
    Pennsylvania and surburbs are very different from Dayton.
    I agree, but 10+ points !!
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    I wouldn't be so sure on the popular vote win by HRC, as results come in the NYTimes prediction keeps moving down , currently has her at only +1.3

    If he wins Ohio/Michigan/PA surely he gets the popular vote as well?
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Tony said:

    I wouldn't be so sure on the popular vote win by HRC, as results come in the NYTimes prediction keeps moving down , currently has her at only +1.3

    If he wins Ohio/Michigan/PA surely he gets the popular vote as well?

    1.2 now ;)
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited November 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Oprah Winfrey the Dem nominee in 2020?

    I was wondering about Condi Rice as president-after-next... if you need your candidate to "make up for" your last one, she's the one you're going to call. (Not usually the way it works, admittedly.)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,512
    tpfkar said:

    BBC flashed "Trump wins Virginia" I just screamed at the TV. 5 seconds later "Clinton winsVirginia"
    Even the BBC are in on it tonight. I think I've had as much as I can handle for one night.

    Remember that all of us and everything we see is just part of some computer simulation. Or so some scientists believe.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    edited November 2016
    89% Trump!

    292 Trump, 246 Clinton is their central forecast.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited November 2016
    Contrast trump hyper-active campaigning to Clinton who went often a week without really doing any proper rallies.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 89% Trump wins.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The thing is, there never was a Clinton firewall. There was a Clinton lead, which is not the same thing.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    NYT saying PA has a 62% chance for Trump. If that's true then I think he's won. As Jack said, FOP. :o
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Clinton 7/1 to win 270-299 ECV
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Trump peaked on BF
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    I disregarded all the 'evidence' and 'experts' and backed trump at 9/2 earlier in the week. Put £100 on. Toyed with putting on another £200 at 4/1 last night, but didn't go ahead.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686
    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    Oh boy. This is not going to be pleasant.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump now winning in some suburban Philadelphia counties by more than Romney.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm baffled by the NYT's 88% Trump chance of victory figure.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470
    Colorado for Clinton - she's on 131 now.

    (I worked briefly there in 2011)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    What are you assuming for California? Trump could run her closer than you think.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,686
    Social media tomorrow morning is going to make Brexit look like a Beatrix Potter book.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Seeing a lot of tweets saying this is not over. And I was thinking of going to bed and planning my nuclear shelter.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    KentRising said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England win the toss and bat.

    Get on the draw, if the world ends they will abandon
    Cook will still be not out and unsweaty among the cinders.
    LOL!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Where is @JackW with a "Politico" article on how Trump is failing or some such :?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    Laurence at 8pm yesterday

    https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/796081263878832128

    Laurence just now

    https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/796195433433407488
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Just took Clinton to win at 4.4 and 7/1 to win 270-299. Felt like things had swung a bit too far.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    NYT 92% Trump wins.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    AndyJS said:

    I'm baffled by the NYT's 88% Trump chance of victory figure.

    I think everybodies models are bigly screwed, as the pattern of voting is way out of what was expected.
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    vikvik Posts: 157
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The thing is, there never was a Clinton firewall. There was a Clinton lead, which is not the same thing.

    The whole "firewall" thing was just liberal Media propaganda to make Clinton appear strong.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Casino_Royale said:

    Social media tomorrow morning is going to make Brexit look like a Beatrix Potter book.

    as @Pulpstar put it, Twitter will hit peak twitter.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    Trump is presently ahead in the popular vote nationwide by 49.1% to 46.6% for Clinton, though obviously much depends on California
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Got £25 on Clinton at 5.5
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    EDW20000 said:

    Trump peaked on BF

    Odd that the betting just moved to Clinton on Betfair, while the NYT predictor shot Trump all all the way up to 92%. What are they betting on?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    NYT says Trump will win all of:

    PA, MI, WI
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Trump 130k votes behind in PA, pretty much all of Philly reported in, quite a few rural areas still to count.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    rottenborough said:

    Seeing a lot of tweets saying this is not over. And I was thinking of going to bed and planning my nuclear shelter.

    It's not completely over, but Clinton winning is now basically the equivalent of having a blindfold on, and trying to hit the bullseye on a darts board 4 times in a row. Theoretically possible, but unlikely.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not only will Clinton win the popular vote, but she might actually get over 50%.

    What are you assuming for California? Trump could run her closer than you think.
    I was assuming a similar result to last time but with a larger electorate.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    AndyJS said:

    I'm baffled by the NYT's 88% Trump chance of victory figure.

    MN, MI, PA and WI. He only needs to win one to be president. Is leading in two, closing in another, and was level in the exit poll in the other.

    He has several paths to victory now, Clinton only has one.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    MikeL said:

    NYT says Trump will win all of:

    PA, MI, WI

    I think that is a fair suggestion.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    Minnesota 31% in
    Clinton 52%
    Trump 40%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/minnesota#president
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Trump pulling away in Michigan, 3.5% ahead. :o
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bwahaha

    David Frum
    We may be living through the most successful Russian intelligence operation since the Rosenbergs stole the A-bomb.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Michigan.

    Hillary is getting votes from Wayne County but Trump has more votes coming from Macomb and Kent.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Are they looking for votes down the back of the sofa in Florida?
This discussion has been closed.