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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An hour is a long time in politics

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    God it's close.

    If the Dems hold PA + VA + CO + MI lose all the other marginals, they're on 269...

    The exit poll in Wisconsin is better for Clinton than in Minnesota, amazingly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    Now I'm starting to think there aren't enough Clinton votes in Broward to make up the difference.
  • Cnn data analyst looks like he is going to start crying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589

    Yes.

    And Nate Silver actually wrote that he was disregarding the LATimes "because it has been an outlier all year"


    What's that Golden Rule?
    Yes, this is a disaster for Silver compared to 2012, he is only right if the polls are largely right, which was why he called Brexit and election 2015 wrong
  • I wish I could go to sleep, but I can't.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump takes the lead in Wisconsin.
  • Sustained crossover now on Betfair.

    Donald once again the favourite
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Trump now into 1.8 on Betfair. So glad I was reading the site an hour ago and got out of my Clinton position.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067

    Virginia Trump lead down to 25,000

    Yes, looking like Clinton holds VA. PA still looking OK for her too.

    Which means Michigan, NC, CO and NV key.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,962
    Essexit said:

    Hey, at least they got a holiday out of it.
    I think the sum was over £100K. For that money I'd want rude things and chocolate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    OH MY GOD
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245

    I wish I could go to sleep, but I can't.

    Not for days....
  • All green on betfair now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    Pulpstar said:

    OH MY GOD

    What happened :o:o
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Louise Mensch on twitter two hours ago: "Congratulations, Madam President-Elect."
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    A reminder about US exit polls from Nate Silver on the 538 blog

    As a point of context — one reason people find Trump’s competitive margins across a wide range of swing states so surprising is because exit polls showed Clinton beating her pre-election polls in most states, instead of underperforming them. Remember not to pay too much attention to them next time around.
  • VI about to flip?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    President Donald Trump.

    Jesus fucking H Christ on a bike....
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Virginia lead down to 12,000
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, this is a disaster for Silver compared to 2012, he is only right if the polls are largely right, which was why he called Brexit and election 2015 wrong
    Berating firms for herding while disregarding outliers. Shakes head.
  • AndyJS said:

    The exit poll in Wisconsin is better for Clinton than in Minnesota, amazingly.
    Exit polls are bullshit though, aren't they?
  • Penn getting twitchy via NYT
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    edited November 2016
    Fl lead down to 112k for Trump, still at 95%
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Yep, but it's more understanding how it must have felt in the the early 1940s I'm worried about.
    Just be thankful if ur white right now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,790
    Clintons being "rocked to their core" right around now?

    Camerons know how they feel...
  • Joke/incapable = same thing?

    No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.

  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    Once again Mr Smithson, thank you. It looks like I am going to make a trouser full of cash because of this site. Stick up a donation button tomorrow.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Exit polls are bullshit though, aren't they?
    We don't know yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    RobD said:

    Now I'm starting to think there aren't enough Clinton votes in Broward to make up the difference.

    There aren't. FL is Trump.
  • I think that we now know that 538 was right to have a wider probability distribution than the other models.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    ab195 said:

    Once again Mr Smithson, thank you. It looks like I am going to make a trouser full of cash because of this site. Stick up a donation button tomorrow.

    It should really be a mandatory tithe :D
  • Sustained crossover now on Betfair.

    Donald once again the favourite

    Ok, I'm taking a wild flyer here, but just tucked into some more Clinton at 2.26.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Aw7DB

    Does this look right ?
  • Has anyone spotted my subtle KLF reference in the thread header?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good news for Clinton — she's probably heading for victory in Virginia:

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    rcs1000 said:

    There aren't. FL is Trump.
    OK, which state to obsess over next?
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Florida nearly over...

    Amy Sherman ‏@AmySherman1 4m4 minutes ago
    Broward updated election day results at 9:41. We now have 523 of 577 reporting. Clinton leads Trump by 278,400.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    RobD said:

    Fl lead down to 112k for Trump, still at 95%

    I think the lead will shrink another 50k... But that's it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    NYT saying PA is on a knife edge.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Virginia looks like it'll go Clinton, but Michigan.....
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Squeakiest of squeaky bum time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    Trump team saying the election is coming down to immigration, national security and the economy on BBC
  • No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.

    Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.
  • I personally know somebody with $100k on Clinton. I don't dare message them to ask how it's going.
    Anybody with a decently sized investment portfolio could be looking at four or five figure losses even if they've never walked into a betting shop in their lives.

    In fact just the political uncertainty over the last week has caused a substantial hit. I had rather hoped that a Clinton win, that apparently had been factored in to prices not so long ago, would put some of that back...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Betdata graph looks hilarious.
    https://betdata.io/next-us-president
  • AndyJS said:

    Good news for Clinton — she's probably heading for victory in Virginia:

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia

    Come on!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314

    Has anyone spotted my subtle KLF reference in the thread header?

    I'm not ashamed to admit I had no time to read the thread header :D
  • Marcus A. Roberts ‏@marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago
    Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Trump has a 7% lead in Wisconsin with 21% in, including 45% of downtown Milwaukee.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    VA down to a 10k Trump lead, looks like Clinton holds.

    Michigan now the key.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Mexican peso in freefall.

    #TacoCurtain
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    It may come down to VA, I think.
  • A few weeks back the question was how big a win Clinton would have.

    At 02:49 it's now time to ask - how big a win will Trump have?
  • Mike Pence coming in on Betfair. Probably correctly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    Come on.. someone call FL and OH.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    viewcode said:

    Fair point, but I need to remind you that I have a) gone out of my way to thank you for your contributions, and b) I have money on Trump (£150@10/3). Money has a way of focussing my attention...

    You've always been an enormously gracious poster - it's always nice to see when you've found something I've found interesting or helpful.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067

    Marcus A. Roberts ‏@marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago
    Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.

    Colorado and Virginia look good for her right now.

    Nevada, Nevada, Nevada...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited November 2016
    Dow Futures down 500 points Andrew Neil reports
  • rcs1000 said:

    There aren't. FL is Trump.
    I thought we had moved on from that ages ago. Stages of grief and all that.
  • AndyJS said:

    Good news for Clinton — she's probably heading for victory in Virginia:

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia

    She's looking in trouble, incredibly, in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.
  • Please god let us avert disaster.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    Marcus A. Roberts ‏@marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago
    Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.

    Is that a firewall if Michigan goes Trump ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,962
    PlatoSaid said:

    You've always been an enormously gracious poster - it's always nice to see when you've found something I've found interesting or helpful.
    You're welcome
  • Ohio and Florida def Trump. Virginia could flip to Hillary. So could New Hampshire. Pennsylvania will be Hillary.

    North Carolina and Michigan both need to come in for him. I think they will. Wisconsin is also looking rather good for him.

    So I would put him favourite. 285-253 ECVs to Trump at the moment probably. That assumes he loses NH and Virginia.

    If not it's 306 to 236.
  • When do we get Nevada in?
  • Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.

    Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016

    I think that we now know that 538 was right to have a wider probability distribution than the other models.

    Indeed. Nate is vindicated.

    Right now, though, his website/forecast is shite comapred to the NYT.
  • Come on!
    She was suppose to win it by 5 points though. Just scraping over the line there is no good.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    Looks like only route for Clinton is PA + MI + CO + NV

    She must win MI.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited November 2016
    Colorado 51% in
    Clinton 49% Trump 43%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/colorado
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    edited November 2016
    CNN Saying Trump now has several ways to win
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RobD said:

    OK, which state to obsess over next?
    Michigan, Michigan is key.
  • Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.

    Not really. Americans are just nuts enough to elect someone like Trump.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    MikeL said:

    Looks like only route for Clinton is PA + MI + CO + NV

    She must win MI.

    And Minnesota and Wisconsin - which is far from certain.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016

    Has anyone spotted my subtle KLF reference in the thread header?

    I only hope no PBer burns a million quid tonight!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    Now I'm starting to think there aren't enough Clinton votes in Broward to make up the difference.

    Broward got some horrible voter fraud issues too - 4 staff accused of filling in absentee ballots and another opening ballots and filling in unchecked boxes with Democrat candidates. There's thousands of them apparently.

    The witness has signed affidavits et al.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    Looks like only route for Clinton is PA + MI + CO + NV

    She must win MI.

    Or Wisconsin, unless you're already counting that one. Picking up Arizona is a possibility.
  • She's looking in trouble, incredibly, in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.
    She has to win Michigan.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    Pulpstar said:

    Is that a firewall if Michigan goes Trump ?
    If Michigan goes Trump he likely edges it.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    When do we get Nevada in?

    When Santos beat Vinick in '06 it was the last to be called ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Wayne county still on very low numbers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    When do we get Nevada in?

    3am.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    corporeal said:

    Michigan, Michigan is key.
    All those car workers (and former car workers) that Michael Moore was going on about.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    corporeal said:

    Michigan, Michigan is key.
    CNN also suggest Wisconsin, Nevada/Arizona, even New Hampshire, and this assumes Clinton holds VA
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    If u are reading this in Nevada go vote for Clinton!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.

    If Trump could pull back a double-digit lead in just FOUR WEEKS, why are you so sure Corbyn couldn't pull back a double-digit lead in FOUR YEARS?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,962
    If I remember correctly, there's a combination that includes Florida and Michigan and (two?) other states that leads to an ECV draw.
  • I need a hug.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    I'm so annoyed that I laid my 11 bet at 7 now. Still got a big position on Trump but it could be massive now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,149
    edited November 2016
    Clinton ahead in VA according to state site.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting that in the popular vote Clinton is only a million behind, and the west coast will deliver at least a 4 million margin for her, probably.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    110k diff in FL now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    Wisconsin 24% in
    Trump 50%
    Clinton 45%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/wisconsin
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Looking at the polling margins http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#margins

    If Trump is uniformly outperforming the polls, he's got FL NC and NV and then Clinton has a 2% cushion out to the rest. But with VA being tight there's a good chance that Trump will take one or two of them.

    Gulp.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that in the popular vote Clinton is only a million behind, and the west coast will deliver at least a 4 million margin for her, probably.

    Yes, as I said earlier, she could win the vote and lose the EC.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    BF might be getting a bit ahead of itself.

    I've greened out.

    for now.
  • Pong said:

    Indeed. Nate is vindicated.

    Right now, though, his website/forecast is shite comapred to the NYT.
    Agreed on both counts. HuffPo look ludicrous.
  • Crossover in Virginia.

    We need to watch NC and MI.
This discussion has been closed.