politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An hour is a long time in politics

1235

Comments

  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    MaxPB said:

    I'm so annoyed that I laid my 11 bet at 7 now. Still got a big position on Trump but it could be massive now.

    Grow a pair. (Just kidding.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    VA looking OK for clinton
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Looks like Virginia will go Hillary. But I doubt North Carolina will.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Virginia 82% in
    Clinton 47.5%
    Trump 47.4%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Trying to decide whether to cash out on Trump now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    VA now looks safe for Dems now.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    edited November 2016
    Danny565 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.

    No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.

    Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?

    Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.

    Joke/incapable = same thing?

    No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.

    Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.

    Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.

    If Trump could pull back a double-digit lead in just FOUR WEEKS, why are you so sure Corbyn couldn't pull back a double-digit lead in FOUR YEARS?
    Yep - ANY election is risky.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Virginia definitely for Clinton. She's ahead now with 20% to come.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,252
    IanB2 said:

    corporeal said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Now I'm starting to think there aren't enough Clinton votes in Broward to make up the difference.

    There aren't. FL is Trump.
    OK, which state to obsess over next?
    Michigan, Michigan is key.
    CNN also suggest Wisconsin, Nevada/Arizona, even New Hampshire, and this assumes Clinton holds VA
    Don't forget Pennsylvania either. NYT has that at 53% Dem
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Emily Maitlis really scratching for a Clinton win.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    CNN saying Michigan only 11% counted but better for Trump than expected
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited November 2016
    Women voting Trump in Michigan - BBC.

    Women in Florida breaking for Clinton only 51-49.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    Looks like Virginia will go Hillary. But I doubt North Carolina will.

    If Virginia is a tie, Trump will win N.C. and probably win the Popular Vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,552
    AndyJS said:

    Virginia definitely for Clinton. She's ahead with 20% to come.

    Yahoo!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    VA should not have been close!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Reposting for posterity;
    brokenwheel said:

    Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


    Hence Dem's Michigan or bust.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    The_Apocalypse said:

    I need a hug.

    Have a hug.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Only up because I can't sleep. All the betting value looks to be gone.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Looks like Clinton wins popular vote comfortably.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Bah, £5 loss on Virginia.

    Should held on got got spooked by Florida.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    The_Apocalypse said:

    I need a hug.

    So do I.

    So do a lot of people.

    The best I can offer you is some John Lennon;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLgYAHHkPFs
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    VA is cheering the markets a little
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sustained crossover now on Betfair.

    Donald once again the favourite

    Ok, I'm taking a wild flyer here, but just tucked into some more Clinton at 2.26.
    Keep tucking.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    edited November 2016
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Looks like only route for Clinton is PA + MI + CO + NV

    She must win MI.

    Or Wisconsin, unless you're already counting that one. Picking up Arizona is a possibility.
    Yes, she must win PA + MI + WI
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I still don't think even Pennsylvania is in the bag, tbh.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    brokenwheel said:

    Reposting for posterity;

    brokenwheel said:

    Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


    Hence Dem's Michigan or bust.
    You could well have called 50/50 there. Good stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    edited November 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that in the popular vote Clinton is only a million behind, and the west coast will deliver at least a 4 million margin for her, probably.

    On present trends California will be closer than 2012, Romney was doing much worse than Trump at this stage. No guarantee it gives Hillary the popular vote lead, especially with a third of Texas still to report
  • vikvik Posts: 159
    edited November 2016
    I was convinced I'd lost my money on Trump ... :)

    To see him now as the favourite is just amazing & fantastic!

    #MAGA

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    When will CNN start declaring places like Georgia?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    PA looks like should be Clinton too, as Pittsburgh is just 16% in, and is 60:40 to Clinton.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Trump ahead in NH now...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    OK even if he loses it will be a massive wake up call for the establishment and his issues will have to be taken seriously.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    I remember a few hours ago when we were talking about SC being too close to call :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    MICHIGAN
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    MaxPB said:

    I'm so annoyed that I laid my 11 bet at 7 now. Still got a big position on Trump but it could be massive now.

    You are not alone.

    I was about to go to bed. Had I done so, I'd be waking up to a loss of almost a grand.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,552
    So, about the election being rigged.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    Marcus A. Roberts ‏@marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago
    Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.

    Is that a firewall if Michigan goes Trump ?
    No. this is really happening.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm not convinced about Florida. Probably loads of votes in the Miami area for Clinton. She's only 100k behind.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,552
    OGH has called it for Trump. I think.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3m3 minutes ago
    On January 21st President Trump will get the nuclear codes
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Chameleon said:

    When will CNN start declaring places like Georgia?

    Isnt he ahead by 350k?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AndyJS said:

    I'm not convinced about Florida. Probably loads of votes in the Miami area for Clinton. She's only 100k behind.

    One of the counties with the lowest reporting rate (18%) is actually leaning Trump:

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Can someone run the data analysis on Michigan and please tell me if Clinton has enough headroom to pull back Trump's lead there in the urban areas?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Why aren't the news channels talking about Pennsylvania?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clinton a narrow favourite again with NYT:

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Artist said:

    Why aren't the news channels talking about Pennsylvania?

    Yes, that looks to be very close!
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pong said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I think that we now know that 538 was right to have a wider probability distribution than the other models.

    Indeed. Nate is vindicated.

    Right now, though, his website/forecast is shite comapred to the NYT.
    Agreed on both counts. HuffPo look ludicrous.
    His forecast only runs off called states, not on partial reports so it's a slow and steady sort of thing.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Clinton takes lead in Virginia
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,252
    We could be looking at a map like this:

    http://www.270towin.com/

    Not sure about Arizona and Trump could possibly take Maine statewide as well.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Clinton is 2.48 on Betfair and she's probably still going to win the election. (Don't blame me if she loses though).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    RobD said:

    I remember a few hours ago when we were talking about SC being too close to call :p

    Yeah, that's what cost me money. Georgia/SC TCTC and Florida looking "very good" by the Clinton camp.

    US opinion and exit polling is bullshit!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    AndyJS said:

    I'm not convinced about Florida. Probably loads of votes in the Miami area for Clinton. She's only 100k behind.

    120k, too much
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AndyJS said:

    Clinton a narrow favourite again with NYT:

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

    I'm seeing at as 63% trump?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    AndyJS said:

    I'm not convinced about Florida. Probably loads of votes in the Miami area for Clinton. She's only 100k behind.

    Miami is done. Broward is the only county sub 80% done (25% left), that one quarter of a county needs to make up 115,000 votes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    AndyJS said:

    Clinton is 2.48 on Betfair and she's probably still going to win the election.

    Why?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Danny565 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.

    No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.

    Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?

    Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.

    Joke/incapable = same thing?

    No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.

    Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.

    Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.

    If Trump could pull back a double-digit lead in just FOUR WEEKS, why are you so sure Corbyn couldn't pull back a double-digit lead in FOUR YEARS?

    Because he is pro-open door immigration, pro-IRA, anti-NATO, anti-Trident and anti-monarchy.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,228
    If Trump scrapes through in the Electoral College but Clinton wins the popular vote, the temptation for a delegate or two to change their vote must be considerable. Could be a tumultuous November and December.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Fox have called Virginia for Clinton. That shouldn't have been close.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    KEY RACE ALERT: North Korea ups the arms race....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    MICHIGAN

    And Wisconsin and Minnesota.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Montana

    THANKS PADDY

    Was SWEATING on the 1-6.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clinton a narrow favourite again with NYT:

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

    I'm seeing at as 63% trump?
    I was looking at the electoral vote prediction which had Clinton on 272.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Montana projected for Trump. Nevada too close to call
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Fishing said:

    If Trump scrapes through in the Electoral College but Clinton wins the popular vote, the temptation for a delegate or two to change their vote must be considerable. Could be a tumultuous November and December.

    Pitchfork time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,552
    Broward almost in.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    The ARSE will be sore tomorrow.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    PA looks like should be Clinton too, as Pittsburgh is just 16% in, and is 60:40 to Clinton.

    But Philadelphia is reporting massively in already. Pretty much all done there. Most of the rural areas haven't reported at all yet. PA could flip.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Clinton 7K ahead in Virginia - 83% results.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    If McMullin gets Utah, there's a very plausible path for Trump to win 269-263, no majority
  • vikvik Posts: 159
    rottenborough said:

    So, about the election being rigged.

    You can bet that if Trump wins, then the Dems will cry that the election was rigged becasue Putin's hackers changed the results.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NYT 66% Trump wins Presidency right now.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    Trump projected to win Utah by about 10%.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Fishing said:

    If Trump scrapes through in the Electoral College but Clinton wins the popular vote, the temptation for a delegate or two to change their vote must be considerable. Could be a tumultuous November and December.

    There's that one declared faithless elector (Clinton->Trump) isn't there?
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    NYTimes just flipped PA to Trump.....
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    SandyRentool said:

    Trump ahead in NH now...

    Via 538
    Talking about shocking counties, look to New Hampshire. Trump is up by 3 percentage points in Grafton County. That’s amazing considering Obama won it by a little less than 25 percentage points in 2012.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ohio 67 in - 400k lead
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    PA: 250k Clinton vote lead
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    I'm not going to lump on Trump just yet, Wayne AA counties report VERY slowly.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    white working class blamed on BBC for backing Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    rcs1000 said:

    PA: 250k Clinton vote lead

    How much of Philly is in ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Saltire said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Trump ahead in NH now...

    Via 538
    Talking about shocking counties, look to New Hampshire. Trump is up by 3 percentage points in Grafton County. That’s amazing considering Obama won it by a little less than 25 percentage points in 2012.
    Those bloody deplorables voted for Obama last time!
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    tpfkar said:

    If McMullin gets Utah, there's a very plausible path for Trump to win 269-263, no majority

    Which is why I just increased my investment in Pence.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Tony said:

    NYTimes just flipped PA to Trump.....

    On what grounds?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    tpfkar said:

    If McMullin gets Utah, there's a very plausible path for Trump to win 269-263, no majority

    Even if McMullin won, would the EC voters let in President Hillary Clinton on the back of Utah???
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    dr_spyn said:

    white working class blamed on BBC for backing Trump.

    Supposedly the WWC are a block vote now.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tony said:

    NYTimes just flipped PA to Trump.....

    On what grounds?
    Live results coming in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tony said:

    NYTimes just flipped PA to Trump.....

    On what grounds?
    Philly I'm guessing.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    If Trump scrapes through in the Electoral College but Clinton wins the popular vote, the temptation for a delegate or two to change their vote must be considerable. Could be a tumultuous November and December.

    Pitchfork time.
    I would not like to be an electoral college voter in those circumstances.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    In Minnesota it's just all Minneapolis, with Hillary's lead 12% lower than Obama's.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Mike Pence
    £3,534.05
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    The winner of the popular vote will probably break the all time record.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    RobD said:

    VA should not have been close!

    That's really the point. Clinton is underperforming and in more marginal states that is telling.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    edited November 2016
    Tony said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Tony said:

    NYTimes just flipped PA to Trump.....

    On what grounds?
    Live results coming in.
    Watch this page. It updates as they change the calls based on the precincts reporting. http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Do you lot seriously think Trump is going to Lose UTAH ?!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Anyone think Mecklenburg County in North Carolina could turn things around for Clinton in that state?

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/north-carolina
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    NM stays D
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Trump looks good to me now to win the Presidency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump back to 134k in FL, still at 95%.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Casino_Royale said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm so annoyed that I laid my 11 bet at 7 now. Still got a big position on Trump but it could be massive now.

    You are not alone.

    I was about to go to bed. Had I done so, I'd be waking up to a loss of almost a grand.
    I think if you look at your stocks and shares....you might well be looking at a much greater loss than some betting pin money....

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    3am time for bed. Eternal best wishes to one and all. Plato especially if the Don does it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.