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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An hour is a long time in politics

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  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    NYT officially calling the race a toss up now! D:

    If Michigan ticks over into the Trump column, it's on! They think Clinton will win Virginia though.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    NYT has Clinton almost 3% ahead in popular vote.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Chameleon said:

    Anyone have a map thing where I can put in how I think states will go to give me a score?

    http://www.270towin.com
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    Life is a jest; and all things show it, I thought so once; but now I know it
  • This result kinda makes me glad that I'm British. Seriously.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    The Guardian is keeping track of the House - shows just a single Democrat gain so far (like the Senate), with 173 seats decided.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Putin must be opening another bottle right now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    IanB2 said:

    Texas, Arkansas called trump

    Trump was never going to lose Texas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    Clinton could win the popular vote and lose the election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    rcs1000 said:

    FL: Trump +148k

    Down to 140k, still on 94%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Approaching crossover on Betfair
  • Trump just went favourite.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/L61kk

    A way for Trump to win without PA or FL.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Reporter on the ground who's ahead of the websites.

    https://twitter.com/AmySherman1

    At 9:17 p.m., Broward updated election day results 430/577 precincts counted. Clinton has about a 274,000 lead over Trump.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    Approaching crossover on Betfair

    :o
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    The exit poll in Minnesota is very bad news for Clinton.

    I don't think that even Arizona and NC can save her now if all the Mid-West goes Red along with Florida (Although a McMullin win in Utah could still give a 267-265 result to Trump.....)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    Err, no.
    People want safety more than anything else. That didn't matter at the time of the Referendum, because there didn't really seem to be much to be scared of in the world. That will change if we suddenly have a deranged narcissist with his hands on the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world -- people might think Mama Merkel and Papa Juncker are out of touch, bossy, arrogant, etc., but they atleast seem vaguely sane.
  • This result kinda makes me glad that I'm British. Seriously.

    Unfortunately we will have to live with the results as well.
  • Clinton and Trump level in the betting now
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Betfair touched Evens!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016

    Speedy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Virginia is so close. How is this possible?

    Trump is on his way to take the lead in NEW JERSEY.
    Has it been uncalled?
    They haven't even though Trump now just 31k behind Hillary in NEW JERSEY and closing in.

    Connecticut has not been called for yet.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784
    Chameleon said:

    Anyone have a map thing where I can put in how I think states will go to give me a score?

    http://www.270towin.com/
  • Tony said:

    Reporter on the ground who's ahead of the websites.

    https://twitter.com/AmySherman1

    At 9:17 p.m., Broward updated election day results 430/577 precincts counted. Clinton has about a 274,000 lead over Trump.

    That probably won't be enough.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Oh this is just too, too much fun.....

  • Crossover on Betfair
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    CROSSOVER ON BF!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Clinton has a healthy lead in PA, with 12% in (177k ahead)
  • All this talk about President Trump and bomb shelters. Its Clinton who terrifies me with the neo hawk drive towards war with Russia. I'd trust The Donald to not "accidentally" provoke WWIII far more than I do the Manchurian Candidate.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Tony said:

    Florida , as discussed earlier the first number they report are the early vote.
    Not the on the day. So we're seeing a DNC early vote v RNC on the day swing as results come in.

    Yes, which is what I've been saying all along...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Nearly at crossover on BF....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    Tony said:

    Reporter on the ground who's ahead of the websites.

    https://twitter.com/AmySherman1

    At 9:17 p.m., Broward updated election day results 430/577 precincts counted. Clinton has about a 274,000 lead over Trump.

    That probably won't be enough.
    And it's the same number CNN is reporting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Just backed Trump 360+ to cover my arse on the spreads.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump has now a 3.5% lead in Michigan.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    edited November 2016
    NY Times.. FL now "very likely" for Trump >95%.

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,910
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Virginia is so close. How is this possible?

    Trump is on his way to take the lead in NEW JERSEY.
    Has it been uncalled?
    They haven't even though Trump now just 31k behind Hillary in NEW JERSEY and closing in.

    Connecticut has not been called for yet.
    Landslide still on the cards.
  • wowser just woke up and quickly stuck a few quid on Trump - odds fells from 2.5 to 1.9 in a couple of mins
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Trump was 12 with Betfair about 75 minutes ago. Crazy night. Again.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Can I just say that my widely scorned prediction of 285 for Trump looks to be wrong...

    It could be more than that....!!
  • This result kinda makes me glad that I'm British. Seriously.

    Unfortunately we will have to live with the results as well.
    I know, but it's nice to know that most White British people in this country aren't racist. In America, I think people of colour have just found out how White America sees them. And that must be terrifying.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Today's mystery better must be worrying about that £120k
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Crossover on Betfair

    Let it be known that this day and this moment remain in history of PB, along with the Brexit night.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    RobD said:

    Clinton has a healthy lead in PA, with 12% in (177k ahead)

    Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are reporting, the rural counties haven't yet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Betfair has just gone mad, about to cross over!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Which network will call FL first I wonder....
  • Danny565 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    Err, no.
    People want safety more than anything else. That didn't matter at the time of the Referendum, because there didn't really seem to be much to be scared of in the world. That will change if we suddenly have a deranged narcissist with his hands on the nuclear codes -- people might think Mama Merkel and Papa Juncker are out of touch, bossy, arrogant, etc., but they atleast seem vaguely sane.
    This is genuinely terrifying. I have lost interest in the money I am about to lose.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    edited November 2016
    NYT saying Trump 274 ECVs! Just for a second. Now a 50/50 race though.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    rcs1000 said:

    Clinton could win the popular vote and lose the election.

    I think that the chances of that must be better than 3/1 now and probably better than 2/1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Speedy said:

    Trump has now a 3.5% lead in Michigan.

    My gut was right on Michigan....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Today's mystery better must be worrying about that £120k

    I personally know somebody with $100k on Clinton. I don't dare message them to ask how it's going.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    Crossover on Betfair

    Brexit mk2!
  • Starting to feel like a Remain supporter must have on June 24.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    edited November 2016
    NYT suggests it's all down to Michigan.
  • Sam Wang at Princeton throws in the towel :

    Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD 2m2 minutes ago
    OK, I sense that maybe I should be researching bug recipes.

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    rcs1000 said:

    Goodness, am I regretting my earlier predictions.

    Thank goodness for SpreadEx :)

    You'd have been the hero if things had turned out as they looked at first.
    Seems like there's a huge rural: urban split which is distorting some of the counting.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    FL, MI, NC, VA, OH all going trump. Potentially Wisconsin, Minnesota, NJ, NH, Pennsylvania also in play. Wow.
  • Stepping back, this is just fascinating. The right basically controls the west. It's their game. How will that pan out?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    RobD said:

    Clinton has a healthy lead in PA, with 12% in (177k ahead)

    Interesting that Trump's behind there but ahead in Michigan - one would have thought the two would go hand in hand (hand in mitten?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    rcs1000 said:

    Clinton could win the popular vote and lose the election.

    CNN now has Trump ahead in the popular vote nationwide 49.7% to 46.3% for Clinton

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    taffys said:

    Can I just say that my widely scorned prediction of 285 for Trump looks to be wrong...

    It could be more than that....!!


    1m
    Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
    I'm told that someone has called Michigan for Clinton. That's preposterous. She's in serious trouble there as well.

    People want to overturn the establishment everywhere. Well done on your prediction, you were right!
  • Danny565 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    Err, no.
    People want safety more than anything else. That didn't matter at the time of the Referendum, because there didn't really seem to be much to be scared of in the world. That will change if we suddenly have a deranged narcissist with his hands on the nuclear codes -- people might think Mama Merkel and Papa Juncker are out of touch, bossy, arrogant, etc., but they atleast seem vaguely sane.
    This is genuinely terrifying. I have lost interest in the money I am about to lose.
    I think I'm going to stop being interested in politics. The last few years have just been beyond depressing. I can deal with a Conservative government, Brexit, but this? No, this is too scary, way too scary. I think I've live in a place where ignorance is bliss. I don't need to be any more involved in this.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    IanB2 said:

    Today's mystery better must be worrying about that £120k

    I personally know somebody with $100k on Clinton. I don't dare message them to ask how it's going.
    Christ.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    MaxPB said:

    NYT saying Trump 274 ECVs! Just for a second. Now a 50/50 race though.

    Crossover on their model, too!

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
  • I feel sick
  • Dow Futures down 450.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited November 2016

    Danny565 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    Err, no.
    People want safety more than anything else. That didn't matter at the time of the Referendum, because there didn't really seem to be much to be scared of in the world. That will change if we suddenly have a deranged narcissist with his hands on the nuclear codes -- people might think Mama Merkel and Papa Juncker are out of touch, bossy, arrogant, etc., but they atleast seem vaguely sane.
    This is genuinely terrifying. I have lost interest in the money I am about to lose.
    I am genuinely scared. If Europe heads in the same direction I will have to leave Britain as much as I love it.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    With the exit poll being so far out in Florida, he's surely got be taking Michigan and Minnesota.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    BBC: reports of Trump doing very well in Minnesota, a state Reagan didn't even win.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,782
    We are inches from crossover on https://betdata.io/next-us-president
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    30% of my portfolio is in gold. 2016 has been very kind to me.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    A fun reminder. Trump could win, and then have to testify in court about Trump University at the end of the month.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Trump cruising it in Georgia
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    @RodCrosby Strikes again... ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Should have know that Clinton would make it difficult. She always does!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    How the race now stands nationwide
    Trump 49.7% Clinton 46.3%
    EC Trump 128 Clinton 97
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Crossover on Betfair

    Brexit mk2!
    Farage Secretary of State ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited November 2016

    Danny565 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    Err, no.
    People want safety more than anything else. That didn't matter at the time of the Referendum, because there didn't really seem to be much to be scared of in the world. That will change if we suddenly have a deranged narcissist with his hands on the nuclear codes -- people might think Mama Merkel and Papa Juncker are out of touch, bossy, arrogant, etc., but they atleast seem vaguely sane.
    This is genuinely terrifying. I have lost interest in the money I am about to lose.
    I think I'm going to stop being interested in politics. The last few years have just been beyond depressing. I can deal with a Conservative government, Brexit, but this? No, this is too scary, way too scary. I think I've live in a place where ignorance is bliss. I don't need to be any more involved in this.
    The closest we will come to understanding how it must have felt in the 1930s.

    Or at least it is as close as I want to come.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Is there an ARSE4US to spank?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    Trump cruising it in Georgia

    Trump Train turning onto Pennsylvania Ave.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    This is just astonishing. I am struggling to see how Clinton wins this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Emily Maitlis very grim-faced suddenly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783

    All this talk about President Trump and bomb shelters. Its Clinton who terrifies me with the neo hawk drive towards war with Russia. I'd trust The Donald to not "accidentally" provoke WWIII far more than I do the Manchurian Candidate.

    Indeed. In fact, it's more likely he and Putin will accidentally push the button while they're in bed together than while they're having a confrontation.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What, I wonder are the chances of dear old 619 posting on here again?

    When will we see his like again?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784

    Stepping back, this is just fascinating. The right basically controls the west. It's their game. How will that pan out?

    If we are following the trend - time to lump on Le Pen?
  • Pulpstar said:

    @RodCrosby Strikes again... ?

    His model actually predicted a Clinton win. He must be happy to be wrong though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    CNN.. don't you dare go to a commercial break.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    edited November 2016
    tpfkar said:

    Is there an ARSE4US to spank?

    Jack's gone quiet, unsurprisingly. He and Plato are like the Brollys.
  • Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Crossover on Betfair

    Brexit mk2!
    Farage Secretary of State ?
    Governor-General!
  • Are opinion polls just dead now?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump lead down to 137k, still at 94% in FL.
  • When will BF crossover? Can't be long now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Not the LA Times!!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited November 2016
    DavidL said:

    This is just astonishing. I am struggling to see how Clinton wins this.

    Me too. Trump wins without PA now, IMHO.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    How is the silly sod who put £120k on Clinton feeling, I wonder?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Me too. Switching horses on betfair at a loss, hardly care any more.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    This world.

    It is breaking apart.

    The end of history, my arse.

    ;)

This discussion has been closed.