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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An hour is a long time in politics

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An hour is a long time in politics

Trump now ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia,

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    First like Trump!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    This is so good!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    CNN analyst sounding a little more pessimistic for Clinton in FL.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Third like johnson
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    fuck mcfuck.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RobD said:

    This is so good!

    It's terrifying.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times up to 85% win prediction for Trump in FL.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited November 2016
    Broward:

    2012 - 750k
    2016 - 680k so far

    There can't be more than say 200k to come.

    200k would give Clinton about 75k net.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Texas, Arkansas called trump
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    We're all fucked.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Trump into 2.86
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    One hour ago my shiny new shovel ordered via Amazon Prime was going to be limited to doing the borders around the lawn...now searching for corrugated iron sheeting...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    This is going to be a clusterfuck.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    markets started to tank.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Knackered and have an earache. Not going to bed yet though....
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Had a feeling America would do this. The world has been gradually getting more terrible since 2008.

    The future is seriously scary.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Michigan 12% in
    Trump 47.9%
    Clinton 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/michigan
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    rottenborough said:

    fuck mcfuck.

    Will be the name of the bomb shelter I will be building if trump wins!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    MaxPB said:

    We're all fucked.

    How quickly can he be impeached?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited November 2016
    I'd still hold steady on Trump winning if Clinton is on course to win Virginia and Michigan.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    You also have to wonder why the Clinton camp were so confident on Florida etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Trump projected to win Arkansas
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    rottenborough said:

    markets started to tank.

    Up and down, ten minutes ago up 100, now down again
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Had a feeling America would do this. The world has been gradually getting more terrible since 2008.

    The future is seriously scary.

    We are being taken to a new level with this one though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Clinton may need a clean sweep of the Western swing states, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico now. Colorado and Michigan could be the key swing states
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    This really is Brexit night 2 .....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump up to 91% forecast in FL!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Beeb ticker:

    Trump 129 ECVs
    Clinton 104

    This is actually much more, shall we say, "exciting" than I thought :)
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Trump advisor on the BBC just called Britain England.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Well at least if Trump wins we'll get a trade deal...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    As a Spurs fan I have been through this so many times before!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Artist said:

    I'd still hold steady on Trump winning if Clinton is on course to win Virginia and Michigan.

    Trump ahead in Virginia with majority counted
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to win Arkansas

    Clinton's "home" state
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    If Trump does this.. as @Pulpstar put it, Twitter will hit peak twitter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Trump projected to have won Wyoming
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    rottenborough said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Had a feeling America would do this. The world has been gradually getting more terrible since 2008.

    The future is seriously scary.

    We are being taken to a new level with this one though.
    Yeah. I feel terribly sorry for quite a lot of the demographics in America, in light of this situation. Their lives are going to get even harder. This victory will embolden plenty of racists and sexists to behave in a certain way and think they will get away with it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Artist said:

    I'd still hold steady on Trump winning if Clinton is on course to win Virginia and Michigan.

    She's not necessarily on course to win them, and apparently even Minnesota (which was thought to be a 100% banker for Clinton) is in danger.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    I fear at the end of a long night, they might be throwing Hillary in the back of the van again.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    So I guess a Clinton landslide is off the table then? ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    I reckon a very narrow Clinton win. But not confident.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The_Apocalypse said:

    You also have to wonder why the Clinton camp were so confident on Florida etc.

    Early vote, Votercastr ect ect.

    And of course CRAAAAPPPYYY Exit Polls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    IanB2 said:

    Artist said:

    I'd still hold steady on Trump winning if Clinton is on course to win Virginia and Michigan.

    Trump ahead in Virginia with majority counted
    But all his counties pretty much in I gather. HRC's still to come.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    All this talk of democrat votes to come is starting to sound depressingly familiar
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    North Carolina with 71% in
    Trump 49.1
    Clinton 48.4

    There has been some delays in certain areas of the state so it could be along time before we get the result here.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,665
    Have the DC overspill areas of Virginia been counted?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    SandyRentool said:

    Well at least if Trump wins we'll get a trade deal...

    Front of the queue?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Also, after this how anyone will believe polls ever again is beyond me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    MarqueeMark said:

    I fear at the end of a long night, they might be throwing Hillary in the back of the van again.....

    Just a stumble...
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784
    CBS saying Minnesota is in Toss-Up territory.. Even if it does go Clinton as it should - what does that mean for Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    SouthamObserver said:

    As a Spurs fan I have been through this so many times before!!

    So true. Masochism of the highest order.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    edited November 2016
    The_Apocalypse said:

    You also have to wonder why the Clinton camp were so confident on Florida etc.

    I don't think they were today once they saw the lines of Trump voters in the west
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump at 94% in FL, almost "very likely"

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SouthamObserver said:

    As a Spurs fan I have been through this so many times before!!

    Is that you calling Gary Johnson to surge into 2nd at the last minute?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MaxPB said:

    We're all fucked.

    Melodrama alert, but I'm genuinely feeling quite terrified right now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    N.Jersey which was called for Hillary earlier suddenly looks close.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Minnesota exit poll:

    Trump 45.8%
    Clinton 45.7%

    Michigan exit poll:

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 46.8%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    I was really hoping I wouldn't have to stay up all night again.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    President Trump, almost beyond doubt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    edited November 2016
    Clinton projected to win Connecticut
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Look at those forecasts converge!

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Palm Beach and Broward may not give Clinton enough net even if Trump has zero net elsewhere.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    USD tanking.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    OMG. I feel sorry for people of colour in America right now....especially Muslims and Hispanics.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Woke up to this. Fucking hell.

    I know nothing about American politics.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times have Trump at 87% in Ohio.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm fairly confident that Clinton will win the popular vote. But Trump might edge a large number of states to get their ECVs.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Isn't this fun :smiley:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,774
    Yup, SPIN has done it yet again: suspended trading.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    A certain liverpudlian must be smiling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    Bloody hell. Trump leading in Virginia Michigan and Florida and Ohio. That's enough.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    MikeL said:

    Palm Beach and Broward may not give Clinton enough net even if Trump has zero net elsewhere.

    They won't have enough. Trump has won fl.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    Woke up to this. Fucking hell.

    I know nothing about American politics.

    I really shouldn't bring up the words "ground game" (at least not until Trump has won - not a prediction, just wanted to tease Alistair.) :p
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    nunu said:

    OMG. I feel sorry for people of colour in America right now....especially Muslims and Hispanics.....

    Yeah. White America hates them as much as they did centuries ago. They've just been waiting for a candidate like Trump to emerge.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    PlatoSaid said:

    Isn't this fun :smiley:

    There may be a lot of apologies owed later on today.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Casino_Royale said:

    I reckon a very narrow Clinton win. But not confident.

    Just can't see it. Trump is winning everywhere he needs to.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    HYUFD said:

    Clinton projected to win Connecticut

    We are saved.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Anyone have a map thing where I can put in how I think states will go to give me a score?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    I'm fairly confident that Clinton will win the popular vote. But Trump might edge a large number of states to get their ECVs.

    I don't think so, the state exit polls maybe crap, but these results look closer to the national exit poll which had it at a 46-46 tie.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Virginia is so close. How is this possible?
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    I've seen enough to say that Trump will win.He looks like getting Florida Ohio,Georgia,N Carolina,Michigan and Colorado and Virginia
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    Err, no.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Even though I urged caution 90 mins ago in the face of everything, I really didn't expect this.

    Blimey blimey blimey blimey blimey.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Isn't this fun :smiley:

    There may be a lot of apologies owed later on today.
    LOL, understatement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Goodness, am I regretting my earlier predictions.

    Thank goodness for SpreadEx :)
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    I hope the lawyers are getting a good night's sleep - there's going to be a national shortage tomorrow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    One thing we can say...if Clinton does win, there are clearly a lot of very angry people who won't want to hear more of Clinton robbo meaningless waffle and more of the same of mass out sourcing of jobs etc etc etc.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    Virginia is so close. How is this possible?

    Trump is on his way to take the lead in NEW JERSEY.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Chameleon said:

    Anyone have a map thing where I can put in how I think states will go to give me a score?

    Here you go - http://www.270towin.com/
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Essexit said:

    Chameleon said:

    Anyone have a map thing where I can put in how I think states will go to give me a score?

    Here you go - http://www.270towin.com/
    Thanks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump +147k at 94%
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    In the process of pooling PB funds to buy a PB cruise ship and sail the betting seas as a safe haven for punters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,577
    Florida up to 94% in, still DT 150k votes ahead.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    NYT officially calling the race a toss up now! D:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    A lot of pollsters, pundits, data whatnots and commentators on twitter seem to have gone silent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    No, a President Trump would be a key ally for Brexit UK, he has said he would do a trade deal with the UK before the EU
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    FL: Trump +148k
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Florida , as discussed earlier the first number they report are the early vote.
    Not the on the day. So we're seeing a DNC early vote v RNC on the day swing as results come in.

    Amy Sherman ‏@AmySherman1 10m10 minutes ago
    Broward has about half the precincts from election day yet to post. The early and absentee results have posted.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    Speedy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Virginia is so close. How is this possible?

    Trump is on his way to take the lead in NEW JERSEY.
    Has it been uncalled?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    MaxPB said:

    NYT officially calling the race a toss up now! D:

    Slight lean to Clinton though, 58%
This discussion has been closed.