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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An hour is a long time in politics

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times chance of winning presidency, Trump 53%, Clinton 47%.
  • taffys said:

    What, I wonder are the chances of dear old 619 posting on here again?

    When will we see his like again?

    I think he will be looking for alternative employment!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    I think Everyone owes Plato an apology. Even if Clinton takes it by the end of the night, this is fucking ridiculously close.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,782
    Lennon said:

    Stepping back, this is just fascinating. The right basically controls the west. It's their game. How will that pan out?

    If we are following the trend - time to lump on Le Pen?
    Unfortunately, that's not a stupid suggestion. Well done that man.
  • Chris said:

    All this talk about President Trump and bomb shelters. Its Clinton who terrifies me with the neo hawk drive towards war with Russia. I'd trust The Donald to not "accidentally" provoke WWIII far more than I do the Manchurian Candidate.

    Indeed. In fact, it's more likely he and Putin will accidentally push the button while they're in bed together than while they're having a confrontation.
    This is the Trump who wonders out aloud why have nukes if you don't use them?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    AndyJS said:

    Emily Maitlis very grim-faced suddenly.

    The BBC studio is re-living June.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    And liberal Americans were laughing at us over Brexit...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016

    IanB2 said:

    Today's mystery better must be worrying about that £120k

    I personally know somebody with $100k on Clinton. I don't dare message them to ask how it's going.
    Reminds me of this:

    "Barmy or brilliant? Brave woman bets 500,000 euros on Hillary Clinton to win presidential race in her first ever political wager"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3828255/Barmy-brilliant-Brave-woman-bets-500-000-euros-Hillary-Clinton-win-presidential-race-political-wager.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    taffys said:

    What, I wonder are the chances of dear old 619 posting on here again?

    When will we see his like again?

    I think he will be looking for alternative employment!
    No tears will be shed.
  • houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
  • IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    BTW, one thing I will say:

    The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.

    Err, no.
    People want safety more than anything else. That didn't matter at the time of the Referendum, because there didn't really seem to be much to be scared of in the world. That will change if we suddenly have a deranged narcissist with his hands on the nuclear codes -- people might think Mama Merkel and Papa Juncker are out of touch, bossy, arrogant, etc., but they atleast seem vaguely sane.
    This is genuinely terrifying. I have lost interest in the money I am about to lose.
    I think I'm going to stop being interested in politics. The last few years have just been beyond depressing. I can deal with a Conservative government, Brexit, but this? No, this is too scary, way too scary. I think I've live in a place where ignorance is bliss. I don't need to be any more involved in this.
    The closest we will come to understanding how it must have felt in the 1930s.

    Or at least it is as close as I want to come.
    Yep, but it's more understanding how it must have felt in the the early 1940s I'm worried about.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Starting to feel like a Remain supporter must have on June 24.

    This time around there was no expectation of winning.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    This is just astonishing. I am struggling to see how Clinton wins this.

    Me too. Trump wins without PA now, IMHO.
    Yep. Michigan Virginia are both unexpected game changers.
  • God help us all.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The three Clinton counties are 93%, 94% and 75% in. FL should be called for Trump any moment now.
  • Come on Virginia!!!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Not the LA Times!!
    Goodhearts Law strikes again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's mystery better must be worrying about that £120k

    I personally know somebody with $100k on Clinton. I don't dare message them to ask how it's going.
    Reminds me of this:

    "Barmy or brilliant? Brave woman bets 500,000 euros on Hillary Clinton to win presidential race in her first ever political wager"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3828255/Barmy-brilliant-Brave-woman-bets-500-000-euros-Hillary-Clinton-win-presidential-race-political-wager.html
    That woman will be more than a little nervous right now!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2016
    If this continues as it is, Clinton will win the popular vote by over 2% and yet it's a coinflip for the electoral college.

    Looks like she'll take Virginia, but as plenty people were saying last week ......... Michigan?
  • houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.

    No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT went to bed an hour ago certain that Clinton would win courtesy of a Frank Luntz tweet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715

    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
    Or a UKIP win if we don't get hard Brexit. However some polls did have Trump ahead, namely the LA Times and IBID TIPP, just as ICM and TNS had Leave ahead. Not all the polls were wrong, the brave ones who went against the grain were proved right it seems
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    DavidL said:

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    This is just astonishing. I am struggling to see how Clinton wins this.

    Me too. Trump wins without PA now, IMHO.
    Yep. Michigan Virginia are both unexpected game changers.
    Looks like Clinton will scrape home in Virginia . Trump lead down to 41,000
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Yep. Michigan Virginia are both unexpected game changers.

    Well to you maybe. Some of us predicted Michigan for Trump days ago. Ahem....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    I think PBers are jumping the gun. Trump will win FL but still a toss-up overall.
  • houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.

    No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.

    Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times also say Ohio is 'very likely' for Trump, >95% probability.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    600 in it in NH.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    I wonder how long the Clinton camp have known they're in this much trouble.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    The LA TImes has just issued a comment about it's polling:

    "JackW - Chortle..."
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hillary's lead in Minneapolis is 16% lower than Obama's.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Tony said:

    With the exit poll being so far out in Florida, he's surely got be taking Michigan and Minnesota.


    Raw exit polling is very all over the place and has more faith in it than it should.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    I did my best and got so poo-pood I finally gave in, ditto the whole mood and attitudes I was picking up.

    None so blind as those who will not see.

    CNN are now talking about Hillary's concession speech :wink: Not something they expected to be doing. Wolf was talking of Trump dropping out about three hours ago.
  • houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
    There won't be a GE in 2020 as we will have a national unity government as we are at war.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    NYT says Michigan 50-50
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT went to bed an hour ago certain that Clinton would win courtesy of a Frank Luntz tweet.

    How can PB enthusiasts sleep on nights like these??
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Huge, huge kudos to Plato.

    We pretty much all missed this.

    After suggesting that Trump was 55% liklihood for the presidency I rowed back last week. What a fool.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I wonder how long the Clinton camp have known they're in this much trouble.

    They cancelled the fireworks remember, and they rushed to campaign in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    God it's close.

    If the Dems hold PA + VA + CO + MI lose all the other marginals, they're on 269...
  • HYUFD said:

    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
    Or a UKIP win if we don't get hard Brexit. However some polls did have Trump ahead, namely the LA Times and IBID TIPP, just as ICM and TNS had Leave ahead. Not all the polls were wrong, the brave ones who went against the grain were proved right it seems
    Yes.

    And Nate Silver actually wrote that he was disregarding the LATimes "because it has been an outlier all year"


    What's that Golden Rule?
  • DavidL said:

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    This is just astonishing. I am struggling to see how Clinton wins this.

    Me too. Trump wins without PA now, IMHO.
    Yep. Michigan Virginia are both unexpected game changers.
    Not sure Michigan is that unexpected. The cars/water line was a killer.
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    NY Times now has Trump more likely to win by 54% chance. Incredible from a few hours ago lol.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I think Everyone owes Plato an apology. Even if Clinton takes it by the end of the night, this is fucking ridiculously close.''

    The Beatrice Kiddo of PB. Leave your limbs behind. They belong to her...
  • Beeb ticker suggesting Trump already halfway there:

    Trump 137 ECVs
    Clinton 104
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2016

    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
    There won't be a GE in 2020 as we will have a national unity government as we are at war.
    A war where the US and Russia are on the same team. Oh dear.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Dang. looks like Trump will win FL by about 80,000 votes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,782
    Essexit said:

    How is the silly sod who put £120k on Clinton feeling, I wonder?

    Every election there is somebody who puts enormous sums on an individual who loses. Somebody back in 1992 flew to the UK (betting on the US President is illegal in the US, remember?) to place an enormous bet on Pat Robertson.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Om Michigan, Trump is ahead in MACOMB, levelish in Wayne.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784
    If Trump wins with a blow-out in the Rust Belt - understanding why really does come down to the line that he used a couple of days ago when in Flint.
    "30 years ago, we made cars in Flint, and the water in Mexico was undrinkable. Now they make cars in Mexico and the water in Flint is undrinkable"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Garza said:

    NY Times now has Trump more likely to win by 54% chance. Incredible from a few hours ago lol.

    Amazing what real data does, eh? :D
  • Paul Krugman ‏@paulkrugman 12m12 minutes ago
    The Detroit Free Press has just called Michigan for HRC. If they're right, we probably avoid the full nightmare.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    rcs1000 said:

    God it's close.

    If the Dems hold PA + VA + CO + MI lose all the other marginals, they're on 269...

    If Evan McMullin wins Utah, we could yet have a "hung" Electoral College.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230

    I think PBers are jumping the gun. Trump will win FL but still a toss-up overall.

    Michigan is worrying. and so is Virginia. Most of the others HRC can afford to lose.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    I would like to apologise to Plato.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Trump ahead in WAYNE????????????????????????????
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Virginia is going to be sooo close.

    Trump is winning Ohio by 10% now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Dear DNC,

    You bunch of fecking numpties. Why didn't you get anyone decent to run for the nomination?

    Biden would have walked it.

    Hillary Clinton = Jeremy Corbyn

    Yours fraternally,

    Sandy R.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    I think PBers are jumping the gun. Trump will win FL but still a toss-up overall.

    Not if VA, NC and MI are going Trump.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I think PBers are jumping the gun. Trump will win FL but still a toss-up overall.

    I agree, I think Clinton is still the most likely winner. But she needs good results in Nevada, Arizona and Colorado.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times does have Clinton at a 95% ('very likely') win probability for VA .
  • DavidL said:

    I think PBers are jumping the gun. Trump will win FL but still a toss-up overall.

    Michigan is worrying. and so is Virginia. Most of the others HRC can afford to lose.
    It's all on Michigan. This is assuming Hillary wins NV/CO
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909

    houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
    There won't be a GE in 2020 as we will have a national unity government as we are at war.
    A war where the US and Russia are on the same team. Oh dear.
    Putin to be the first foreign leader to congratulate President Trump? :)
  • RobD said:

    NY Times does have Clinton at a 95% ('very likely') win probability for VA .

    DC suburbs will win it for her I expect
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900



    And Nate Silver actually wrote that he was disregarding the LATimes "because it has been an outlier all year"

    They had, what, Trump+3? That's well off, Clinton will win the popular vote.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    The American media presenters are starting to look like UK ones on the night of brexit, slowly realising the small world they exist in is not representative of the country they live in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    God it's close.

    If the Dems hold PA + VA + CO + MI lose all the other marginals, they're on 269...

    Hillary needs Arizona or Nevada, it is now still possible Hillary wins the EC but it will be very tight, the popular vote probably looks to be going for Trump if he keeps his lead once California reports (much of Texas too to report). Am still hopeful for my bet the winner of the popular vote loses the EC, so am cheering for Hillary now!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Michigan now in the red column on NYT tracker.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to apologise to Plato.

    Yep. Whichever way it goes now, there is no argument she didn't have a point.
  • houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.

    No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.

    Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?

    Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.

  • houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
    There won't be a GE in 2020 as we will have a national unity government as we are at war.
    A war where the US and Russia are on the same team. Oh dear.
    Putin to be the first foreign leader to congratulate President Trump? :)
    Yes, Russia now has their stooge in the White House.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    rcs1000 said:

    God it's close.

    If the Dems hold PA + VA + CO + MI lose all the other marginals, they're on 269...

    Virginia is the key firewall now I think....
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    viewcode said:

    Essexit said:

    How is the silly sod who put £120k on Clinton feeling, I wonder?

    Every election there is somebody who puts enormous sums on an individual who loses. Somebody back in 1992 flew to the UK (betting on the US President is illegal in the US, remember?) to place an enormous bet on Pat Robertson.
    Hey, at least they got a holiday out of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    rcs1000 said:

    God it's close.

    If the Dems hold PA + VA + CO + MI lose all the other marginals, they're on 269...

    And if neither Clinton or Trump win Utah.....
  • Trump ahead in Minnesota
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    I guess AZ could give Clinton an upside.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    CROSSOVER
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What about PENN?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump at +139k in FL, at 95%
  • houndtang said:

    Are opinion polls just dead now?

    Pretty much.

    I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.

    I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.

    No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.

    Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?

    Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.

    Joke/incapable = same thing?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Virginia Trump lead down to 25,000
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Trump 140K ahead in FL - 95% vote via CNN.
  • AndyJS said:

    I think PBers are jumping the gun. Trump will win FL but still a toss-up overall.

    I agree, I think Clinton is still the most likely winner. But she needs good results in Nevada, Arizona and Colorado.
    Hope you are both right. At the moment I am a fully signed up member of the Dems bed wetter club.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Wisconsin.

    Trump is holding his ground in the Milwaukee suburbs and he is advancing elsewhere.
    He might win it.

    Hillary's margin in Madison is down 28% from Obama.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    NYT forecasts trump to win Michigan and the Presidency.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT went to bed an hour ago certain that Clinton would win courtesy of a Frank Luntz tweet.

    Someone wake him up :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    VA not nearly as good for Clinton as it should be
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Chameleon said:
    Frank's been making a complete Charlie of himself on Twitter for about two or three weeks. He was making loads of fact free assertions that didn't bear any scrutiny. He's disowned the GOP now - I'm not surprised, he's been trending NeverTrump and it's become painfully obvious.

    I suspect he secretly wanted Trump to lose all along - so he'd get crushed and the GOP could revert to type.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Time for a drink
  • CNN presenter getting angry at 538...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MikeL said:

    I guess AZ could give Clinton an upside.

    Doubt it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,782
    PlatoSaid said:

    None so blind as those who will not see.

    Fair point, but I need to remind you that I have a) gone out of my way to thank you for your contributions, and b) I have money on Trump (£150@10/3). Money has a way of focussing my attention...

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times up to 59% Trump for the presidency.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    CNN calling CT for Clinton, Louisiana for trump
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2016
    MikeL said:

    I guess AZ could give Clinton an upside.

    There's surely no chance at all of Clinton winning Arizona on the basis of results so far. Pretty much zero swing in Texas so I'd be surprised if it was much different in AZ.
  • Trump fav
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeL said:

    NYT forecasts trump to win Michigan and the Presidency.

    Looks likely.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Dow down 600 since 1am.
  • BF has crossed over
  • Trump now odds on with Ladbrokes
This discussion has been closed.