I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.
I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
Or a UKIP win if we don't get hard Brexit. However some polls did have Trump ahead, namely the LA Times and IBID TIPP, just as ICM and TNS had Leave ahead. Not all the polls were wrong, the brave ones who went against the grain were proved right it seems
Yes.
And Nate Silver actually wrote that he was disregarding the LATimes "because it has been an outlier all year"
What's that Golden Rule?
Yes, this is a disaster for Silver compared to 2012, he is only right if the polls are largely right, which was why he called Brexit and election 2015 wrong
How is the silly sod who put £120k on Clinton feeling, I wonder?
Every election there is somebody who puts enormous sums on an individual who loses. Somebody back in 1992 flew to the UK (betting on the US President is illegal in the US, remember?) to place an enormous bet on Pat Robertson.
Hey, at least they got a holiday out of it.
I think the sum was over £100K. For that money I'd want rude things and chocolate.
A reminder about US exit polls from Nate Silver on the 538 blog
As a point of context — one reason people find Trump’s competitive margins across a wide range of swing states so surprising is because exit polls showed Clinton beating her pre-election polls in most states, instead of underperforming them. Remember not to pay too much attention to them next time around.
I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.
I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
Or a UKIP win if we don't get hard Brexit. However some polls did have Trump ahead, namely the LA Times and IBID TIPP, just as ICM and TNS had Leave ahead. Not all the polls were wrong, the brave ones who went against the grain were proved right it seems
Yes.
And Nate Silver actually wrote that he was disregarding the LATimes "because it has been an outlier all year"
What's that Golden Rule?
Yes, this is a disaster for Silver compared to 2012, he is only right if the polls are largely right, which was why he called Brexit and election 2015 wrong
Berating firms for herding while disregarding outliers. Shakes head.
The one thing that might cause Brexit to be scuppered is President Trump. IMO, the idea of sticking together with a big block to keep Trump in line might suddenly seem attractive to Middle England.
Err, no.
People want safety more than anything else. That didn't matter at the time of the Referendum, because there didn't really seem to be much to be scared of in the world. That will change if we suddenly have a deranged narcissist with his hands on the nuclear codes -- people might think Mama Merkel and Papa Juncker are out of touch, bossy, arrogant, etc., but they atleast seem vaguely sane.
This is genuinely terrifying. I have lost interest in the money I am about to lose.
I think I'm going to stop being interested in politics. The last few years have just been beyond depressing. I can deal with a Conservative government, Brexit, but this? No, this is too scary, way too scary. I think I've live in a place where ignorance is bliss. I don't need to be any more involved in this.
The closest we will come to understanding how it must have felt in the 1930s.
Or at least it is as close as I want to come.
Yep, but it's more understanding how it must have felt in the the early 1940s I'm worried about.
I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.
I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.
Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?
Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.
Joke/incapable = same thing?
No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.
Amy Sherman @AmySherman1 4m4 minutes ago Broward updated election day results at 9:41. We now have 523 of 577 reporting. Clinton leads Trump by 278,400.
I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.
I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.
Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?
Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.
Joke/incapable = same thing?
No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.
Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.
Today's mystery better must be worrying about that £120k
I personally know somebody with $100k on Clinton. I don't dare message them to ask how it's going.
Anybody with a decently sized investment portfolio could be looking at four or five figure losses even if they've never walked into a betting shop in their lives.
In fact just the political uncertainty over the last week has caused a substantial hit. I had rather hoped that a Clinton win, that apparently had been factored in to prices not so long ago, would put some of that back...
Marcus A. Roberts @marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.
Fair point, but I need to remind you that I have a) gone out of my way to thank you for your contributions, and b) I have money on Trump (£150@10/3). Money has a way of focussing my attention...
You've always been an enormously gracious poster - it's always nice to see when you've found something I've found interesting or helpful.
Marcus A. Roberts @marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.
Colorado and Virginia look good for her right now.
Marcus A. Roberts @marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.
Fair point, but I need to remind you that I have a) gone out of my way to thank you for your contributions, and b) I have money on Trump (£150@10/3). Money has a way of focussing my attention...
You've always been an enormously gracious poster - it's always nice to see when you've found something I've found interesting or helpful.
I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.
I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.
Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?
Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.
Joke/incapable = same thing?
No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.
Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.
Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.
I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.
I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.
Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?
Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.
Joke/incapable = same thing?
No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.
Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.
Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.
Not really. Americans are just nuts enough to elect someone like Trump.
Now I'm starting to think there aren't enough Clinton votes in Broward to make up the difference.
Broward got some horrible voter fraud issues too - 4 staff accused of filling in absentee ballots and another opening ballots and filling in unchecked boxes with Democrat candidates. There's thousands of them apparently.
Marcus A. Roberts @marcusaroberts 9m9 minutes ago Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.
I don't think we can take any of them seriously anymore.
I actually wouldn't rule out Corbyn as PM in 2020 (or whenever the GE is called) - a lot of the theory as to why he won't win is based on polls, and they, clearly are a load of shit.
No, Corbyn is guaranteed to deliver defeat to Labour.
Just like Trump couldn't win a GE? How we all thought he was a joke candidate intially?
Corbyn isn't a joke candidate, he's an incapable candidate.
Joke/incapable = same thing?
No. Corbyn won't engage, won't move out of his comfort zone and actually has little intetest in winning power.
Trump doesn't engage, nor does he move out of his comfort zone though.
Clearly Trump's comfort zone is significantly bigger than Corbyn's.
If Trump could pull back a double-digit lead in just FOUR WEEKS, why are you so sure Corbyn couldn't pull back a double-digit lead in FOUR YEARS?
If Trump is uniformly outperforming the polls, he's got FL NC and NV and then Clinton has a 2% cushion out to the rest. But with VA being tight there's a good chance that Trump will take one or two of them.
Comments
Donald once again the favourite
Which means Michigan, NC, CO and NV key.
As a point of context — one reason people find Trump’s competitive margins across a wide range of swing states so surprising is because exit polls showed Clinton beating her pre-election polls in most states, instead of underperforming them. Remember not to pay too much attention to them next time around.
Jesus fucking H Christ on a bike....
Camerons know how they feel...
Does this look right ?
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia
Amy Sherman @AmySherman1 4m4 minutes ago
Broward updated election day results at 9:41. We now have 523 of 577 reporting. Clinton leads Trump by 278,400.
In fact just the political uncertainty over the last week has caused a substantial hit. I had rather hoped that a Clinton win, that apparently had been factored in to prices not so long ago, would put some of that back...
https://betdata.io/next-us-president
Crucial is the Clinton firewall. Frightening time for Dems but Clinton still has a path - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.
Michigan now the key.
#TacoCurtain
At 02:49 it's now time to ask - how big a win will Trump have?
Nevada, Nevada, Nevada...
North Carolina and Michigan both need to come in for him. I think they will. Wisconsin is also looking rather good for him.
So I would put him favourite. 285-253 ECVs to Trump at the moment probably. That assumes he loses NH and Virginia.
If not it's 306 to 236.
Right now, though, his website/forecast is shite comapred to the NYT.
She must win MI.
Clinton 49% Trump 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/colorado
The witness has signed affidavits et al.
Trump 50%
Clinton 45%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/wisconsin
If Trump is uniformly outperforming the polls, he's got FL NC and NV and then Clinton has a 2% cushion out to the rest. But with VA being tight there's a good chance that Trump will take one or two of them.
Gulp.
I've greened out.
for now.
We need to watch NC and MI.