politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six hours or so before we start to get an idea

Options
168101112

Comments

  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Whats this exit poll? Watching CNN where it counted down to 0 and.....still no exit poll. Guess i was expecting a UK style dramatic poll.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    Hi...can someone please put out some links for
    sky news
    fox news
    CNN

    for us poor people out of the UK

    Many thanks

    Sky news - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg
    Many thanks Rob...I've just found it from your link...... Good stuff

  • Kay burley in the US...question is who is she going to make cry?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Just gone 1.2 / 5.8

    From 1.21 / 5.7
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    When does Sunderland declare?

    Their are four in the US, which do you mean? :D
    Their? THEIR? THEIR?

    Off to ConHome for six weeks for you for that awful crime against the English language
    That is an immediate suspension from our party - red card for Rob - we only want those who speak proper like.
    To be fair to Rob he's working in a country that regularly outrages the English language.

    If he starts missing 'u' from words like colour and favour Rob'd be like Mark Reckless to me.
    Occasionally you see British English spellings here to give a sense of poshness - there are some venues in NYC that spell their names with "Theatre" for instance. This can lead to hilariousness sometimes though: there's a condo near me called "Tappan Manour".
    Sounds like an author of an Indian cookbook.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670

    Whats this exit poll? Watching CNN where it counted down to 0 and.....still no exit poll. Guess i was expecting a UK style dramatic poll.

    Don't give CNN the views. They are fuckers with their exit poll information.
  • the 1.2 will go at 22.10
  • rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    When does Sunderland declare?

    Their are four in the US, which do you mean? :D
    Their? THEIR? THEIR?

    Off to ConHome for six weeks for you for that awful crime against the English language
    That is an immediate suspension from our party - red card for Rob - we only want those who speak proper like.
    To be fair to Rob he's working in a country that regularly outrages the English language.

    If he starts missing 'u' from words like colour and favour Rob'd be like Mark Reckless to me.
    Occasionally you see British English spellings here to give a sense of poshness - there are some venues in NYC that spell their names with "Theatre" for instance. This can lead to hilariousness sometimes though: there's a condo near me called "Tappan Manour".
    As immature young men working in NYC, when taking part in the bar quizzes in the local bars we always called ourselves "the w;;kers" as no one there ever seemed to know that swear word or what it meant.... i presume that's changed since Trump came on the scene.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289

    Kay burley in the US...question is who is she going to make cry?

    She's on the look out for dogs expressing the zeitgeist.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813

    Dromedary said:

    There's £200K laying Clinton at 1.2 at Betfair.

    Pulpstar? :)
    Lol no I'm nowhere near that league.

    @Gettingbetter Maybe :)
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569

    Kay burley in the US...question is who is she going to make cry?

    All of us.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Presume the CNN Exits before polls close will just be demographic stuff, not vote shares.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    edited November 2016
    Sorry fake tweet... deleted.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    edited November 2016
    ToryJim said:
    Trump will say the Establishment encompasses both parties, desperate to keep dividing power between Bush-Clinton-Bush Clinton....
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122

    tyson said:

    Hi...can someone please put out some links for
    sky news
    fox news
    CNN

    for us poor people out of the UK

    Many thanks

    live streams of US CNN and Fox
    http://www.zahitvstation.com/watch-cnn-usa-live
    http://www.zahitvstation.com/watch-fox-news-live

    Many thanks Yossarian...really appreciated

  • ToryJim said:
    Trump will say the Establishment encpomasses both parties, desperate to keep dividing power between Bush-Clinton-Bush Clinton....
    But I will be jumping around the living room like a nine year old at Xmas.
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Is Drudge quoting exit polls?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Conway is annoying me already.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited November 2016
    MikeL said:

    Presume the CNN Exits before polls close will just be demographic stuff, not vote shares.

    What out for the crucial breaking news of the breakdown of one armed Armenian lesbians in Montana....
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    CNN exit poll shortly...
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    I think part of Indiana has closed.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    edited November 2016
    CNN - 38% want change
    22% good judgement
    22% experience
    15% cares about me
  • Dromedary
    Dromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016

    the 1.2 will go at 22.10

    22.11 now and £171K is left.

    Edit: £207K now.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    CNN:

    44% Want judgement / experience
    38% Want change

    12% decided within last week
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Speedy said:

    I think part of Indiana has closed.

    I thought it was 6pm Eastern Time and 7pm for a small part of the state.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.
  • Alistair said:

    Speedy said:

    I think part of Indiana has closed.

    I thought it was 6pm Eastern Time and 7pm for a small part of the state.
    Polls close early in the States - we open till 10pm here in the UK.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    MikeL said:

    CNN:

    44% Want judgement / experience
    38% Want change

    12% decided within last week

    It's 22% judgement and 22% experience separately. The former could be split between the two depending on your views.

    These initial numbers look good for Trump.
  • Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Neither look particularly good for her.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Those are much lower for HRC than I would have expected.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.

    Horror number for Hillary with latinos tbh.
  • MikeL said:

    CNN:

    44% Want judgement / experience
    38% Want change

    12% decided within last week

    :sunglasses:
  • SeanT said:

    Weirdly boring. Clinton's gonna walk it.

    It's not over till the Trouser suit-wearing lady sings!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Those are much lower for HRC than I would have expected.
    Indeed.

    There is a lot of speculation on CBS of Trump beating Romney's numbers with minorities and women.
  • SeanT said:

    Weirdly boring. Clinton's gonna walk it.

    Steady on Sean. Where's the hyperbole old chap?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I'm going to pick up a chinese.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    How many plumbers voted for a hug, we need to know these things - they are far more important than the ACTUAL VOTES, right???
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.

    Jeez... thats good for Trump.
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    When is the Sunderland moment? Trump will l give us a big BOOM! I don't want him to win, but will enjoy it anyways.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    I think I will start on my bottle of very nice Turkish red. It looks like a long night.
  • Essexit said:

    Attempt to get some sleep failed miserably...time to power through on caffeine tonight and at work tomorrow.

    I'm gonna try and stay up all night till, say, 5 or 6, then have a lie in tomorrow :)
  • Garza
    Garza Posts: 45
    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.

    White women college graduates only 51%? Ouch, not good for Clinton.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to pick up a chinese.

    Just had a very nice meal at Rabbit on the KR.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to pick up a chinese.

    Is this the start of a Trump microphone-left-on moment?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    SeanT said:

    Weirdly boring. Clinton's gonna walk it.

    Well that's just guaranteed a fucking long night!
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to pick up a chinese.

    Do they wanted to be picked up? Don't do it by their .
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2016
    ITV News "looks to be a good night for Hillary"
  • Sporting has Hillary's ECVs spread down again at 301-311 (Trump's : 227-237).

    It's looking as if Mike and yours truly were right to sell our spreads* a couple of days ago.

    * Mostly in my case
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.

    Who does that favour, Speedy?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    IanB2 said:

    I think I will start on my bottle of very nice Turkish red. It looks like a long night.

    Turkish/Red seems like mutually exclusive concepts

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    42% can bring change, Ohio CBS exit poll.
    Experience 23%.
    Judgement 18
    Cares about me 15

    Trumpian again.
  • Those early numbers, I'm just going on Amazon to order a shovel as I might be building a bomb shelter in the morning....
  • Speedy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Those are much lower for HRC than I would have expected.
    Indeed.

    There is a lot of speculation on CBS of Trump beating Romney's numbers with minorities and women.
    The noise you just heard was a certain ARSE exploding :wink:
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    DanSmith said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.

    Jeez... thats good for Trump.
    Indeed. Obama against Romney won 75% of Latinos. An 8% lead in Hillary's best white demographic is awful.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Those are much lower for HRC than I would have expected.
    27% is same as Romney for Latinos, I don't believe it.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    CNN: Only a third feel better off than 4 years ago.
  • HaroldO
    HaroldO Posts: 1,185
    So glad I can just sleep through this and see what the result is in the morning, it helps that my insomnia hit hard last night so now I am so tired I shall be asleep within the next ten minutes hopefully.
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Dixie said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.

    Who does that favour, Speedy?
    Good for Trump.

    But it is only exits, I suspect they might be a bit more screwy than usual this year.
  • OK, so YouGov had Clinton winning by 4% nationally, leading 62:27 with Hispanics. SO note a dire number, but not great.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    tyson said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think I will start on my bottle of very nice Turkish red. It looks like a long night.

    Turkish/Red seems like mutually exclusive concepts

    Lol

    Urla Vourla. Very nice.
  • nunu said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Those are much lower for HRC than I would have expected.
    27% is same as Romney for Latinos, I don't believe it.
    Utter tosh.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Dixie said:

    When is the Sunderland moment? Trump will l give us a big BOOM! I don't want him to win, but will enjoy it anyways.


    Michigan. Apparently very high blue collar worker turnout.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    If these Exits are bad for Clinton it's had no effect on Betfair yet.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289

    OK, so YouGov had Clinton winning by 4% nationally, leading 62:27 with Hispanics. SO note a dire number, but not great.

    The college educated white women is more of a concern for her.
  • rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    When does Sunderland declare?

    Their are four in the US, which do you mean? :D
    Their? THEIR? THEIR?

    Off to ConHome for six weeks for you for that awful crime against the English language
    That is an immediate suspension from our party - red card for Rob - we only want those who speak proper like.
    To be fair to Rob he's working in a country that regularly outrages the English language.

    If he starts missing 'u' from words like colour and favour Rob'd be like Mark Reckless to me.
    Occasionally you see British English spellings here to give a sense of poshness - there are some venues in NYC that spell their names with "Theatre" for instance. This can lead to hilariousness sometimes though: there's a condo near me called "Tappan Manour".
    As immature young men working in NYC, when taking part in the bar quizzes in the local bars we always called ourselves "the w;;kers" as no one there ever seemed to know that swear word or what it meant.... i presume that's changed since Trump came on the scene.
    When I was in New York once I saw a British character in a TV episode use the word "wanker" while they bleeped the word "damn"!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Trump Train revving up?
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    I think I will start on my bottle of very nice Turkish red. It looks like a long night.

    Stone cold sober here.

    Punting while pissed is a very bad idea. ;)
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    The data so far is looking bad for Clinton... it just depends how much you trust it.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Hillary watch out in

    Michigan!
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm going to pick up a chinese.

    Don't tell The Donald.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Dixie said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Speculation of Trump winning more than Romney.

    Who does that favour, Speedy?
    Trump hitting Romney's numbers with minorities, good for Trump.

    Hillary beating Trump by less than 10 with college educated white women means it's probably tied with college educated white voters in general, good for Trump.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    CNN:

    Republican sources concerned about PA and NC
  • Those early numbers, I'm just going on Amazon to order a shovel as I might be building a bomb shelter in the morning....

    :+1:
  • Looks like we'll be weeping for humanity then, by the morning.
  • CNN: Only a third feel better off than 4 years ago.

    The US economic data has been very good, so the next president might get the credit for Obama's recovery!
  • Well it's a bitch fest on sky...well you on write for the NY Post says writer for Time magazine...
  • Properly shitting myself here..
  • Is this CBS exit poll conducted by the same people who did the Primrose Hill exit poll in June ?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    MikeL said:

    If these Exits are bad for Clinton it's had no effect on Betfair yet.

    Betfair players aren't always the sharpest knives in the block though. Brexit, anyone?
  • Chameleon said:

    The data so far is looking bad for Clinton... it just depends how much you trust it.

    and yet BF Clinton has dropped a tad
  • Betfair just gone 5s on Donald.
    Pile on, lads.
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    Meanwhile in the land of the possible future El Presidente.

    Why do the spy watchers of the FBI have a warrant out to investigate Trump and some of his associates, a warrant only obtained in October? Links with a foreign nation or foreign ne'er do wells

    He really needs to win and even if he does, the people looking into him are genuinely good operators.

    Either he or associates will be fortunate not to be up in a court.


  • MikeL said:

    If these Exits are bad for Clinton it's had no effect on Betfair yet.

    Betfair is starting to come in for Clinton... 1.18
  • nunu said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    Those are much lower for HRC than I would have expected.
    27% is same as Romney for Latinos, I don't believe it.
    Stage 1 : Denial.
  • Donald 6 on Betfair
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Betfair moves to Clinton:

    1.18 / 6.2
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    North carolina CBS exit poll

    Change 35
    Judgement 23
    Experience 21
    Cares about me 17
  • Properly shitting myself here..

    we spurs fans are repeatedly in that position - you get an addiction to it sadly
  • CNN: Only a third feel better off than 4 years ago.

    The US economic data has been very good, so the next president might get the credit for Obama's recovery!
    Not if the 1% continue to get most of the benefit.
  • CNN ‏@CNN_PoIitics 23m
    BREAKING: The first Florida exit poll numbers have been released.

    Trump 55%
    Clinton 39%
    Johnson 6%
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    IanB2 said:

    tyson said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think I will start on my bottle of very nice Turkish red. It looks like a long night.

    Turkish/Red seems like mutually exclusive concepts

    Lol

    Urla Vourla. Very nice.
    Urla Vourla...sounds like something an Umpa Lumpa would drink...you stick to that and I'll keep to my Chianti

  • Dromedary
    Dromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    Latinos 65-27 for Hillary.

    CBS exit polls.

    White women college graduates 51-43 Hillary.

    The Washington Post were saying five days ago that college-educated white women were Clinton's "firewall". The WP-ABC tracking poll had her beating Trump 56-36 in that demographic, and among Latinos 67-24. Will the story of this election be that in the privacy of the polling booth middle class white women don't care much about one guy who grabs women's genitals but they think that something should be done about the number of Mexican immigrants? On the two kinds of fear here, this recent piece by Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, is worth reading.


  • No sh*t sherlock

    CNN First exit polls: Clinton and Trump don't excite voters
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2016
    too slow...
  • Calm down Clintonites.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265

    Chameleon said:

    The data so far is looking bad for Clinton... it just depends how much you trust it.

    and yet BF Clinton has dropped a tad
    Given how BF reacted at GE2015 and the EU ref I'm not sure that we should be using it to aid our interpretations at all.
  • NeilVW
    NeilVW Posts: 749
    Hi all. Apologies if already covered. Andrew Neil is doing the BBC coverage from 23:15. He knows a fair bit about US politics, better than Dimbleby! I'm minded to watch that, any thoughts?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    edited November 2016
    Snip
This discussion has been closed.