It looks like it will be very close nationally with those numbers especially with Trump hitting the same numbers as Romney with minorities and Hillary underperforming with women.
It looks like it will be very close nationally with those numbers especially with Trump hitting the same numbers as Romney with minorities and Hillary underperforming with women.
If overall turnout is up this will help Trump as the its the white vote which has increased the most.
Evening all. On Brexit night we had the amazing benefit of THE Spreadsheet.
Is there a POTUS night equivalent??
Andy JS posted something earlier as an indicator. Damned if I can recall the details but it looked like a 'Sunderland' indicator. Fairly sure, he's the man where the Brexit referendum details came from.
It looks like it will be very close nationally with those numbers especially with Trump hitting the same numbers as Romney with minorities and Hillary underperforming with women.
For registered voters in 2012 I've got W 64, B 12, H 16, Asian 5, Mixed or Native 2.
best of luck everyone. My waters still say Clinton but not by anything like as much as her supporters are hoping for.
Well the republican strategist/spokesperson on Newsnight has gone out of her way to emphasise that she isn't personally supporting Trump. And she says that despite energising lots of voters, the party is in chaos and faces a difficult aftermath win or lose.
Also from the 538 blog: "While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012."
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
At the end of the day, the factor about Trump that bothers me most is his unpredictability. America could survive a sexist, bit of idiot. But who knows where an unpredictable president might take them, holes so deep they'd take years to recover
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
Confirmed by the following:
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago Exit poll demographics not looking good for a Trump...:)
CNN Politics @CNNPolitics 1m1 minute ago BREAKING: A nonprofit has gone to court in North Carolina asking for polls in Durham County to be kept open another 90 minutes
The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.
The really smart GOP and Democrat commentators, and the ones with the real inside info, will be on the US networks. If you are doing foreign telly you are peripheral. And you are peripheral because you are not that great.
The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.
The really smart GOP and Democrat commentators, and the ones with the real inside info, will be on the US networks. If you are doing foreign telly you are peripheral. And you are peripheral because you are not that great.
You would hope so, but the number of numpties I have seen as talking heads on CNN makes me wonder!
CNN Politics @CNNPolitics 1m1 minute ago BREAKING: A nonprofit has gone to court in North Carolina asking for polls in Durham County to be kept open another 90 minutes
Delays caused by hipsters trying to wheel their bikes into the polling stations?
Also from the 538 blog: "While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012."
Better news for Hillary in Florida
The much maligned Votecastr has Hillary carrying FL by 3pts with 94% of expected votes counted.
The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.
The really smart GOP and Democrat commentators, and the ones with the real inside info, will be on the US networks. If you are doing foreign telly you are peripheral. And you are peripheral because you are not that great.
You would hope so, but the number of numpties I have seen as talking heads on CNN makes me wonder!
If they are on foreign telly, though, they are even worse.
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
That's my reading, but on purely racial lines this will continue to lose because it will be even harder in 2020.
Immigration control needs to co-opt from Hispanics and Black Americans as well.
Leave did this relatively well in the West Midlands.
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.
Quite so.
I felt there had been no change in the culture wars under Cameron to Blair.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
I'm not sure about that. Part of the reason Trump was able to turn the tables on the initial expected PC attacks was because of the lustre of success and his brash personality. A regular guy would get steamrollered by the likes of Clinton, and a Farage would do even worse.
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.
Continue Obama's policies 29 More conservative 46 More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46 Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
That's very Trump-y.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.
Also from the 538 blog: "While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012."
Better news for Hillary in Florida
The much maligned Votecastr has Hillary carrying FL by 3pts with 94% of expected votes counted.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
I'm not sure about that. Part of the reason Trump was able to turn the tables on the initial expected PC attacks was because of the lustre of success and his brash personality. A regular guy would get steamrollered by the likes of Clinton, and a Farage would do even worse.
I agree on the point about the culture wars.
What would change if the right were winning the culture wars?
Comments
But I can't believe it 'cost traders hundreds of million'.
The data/calls that matter are made by the AP and delivered in realtime through their API.
Access to their api is very very expensive.
Some of the larger newssites with big budgets will autopublish these AP calls / integrate them into their maps/ breaking news feeds etc.
AP are (I think) the only organisation who have a significant number of people on the ground gathering actual voting data.
Whites 70
Blacks 12
Latinos 11
Asian 4
It looks like it will be very close nationally with those numbers especially with Trump hitting the same numbers as Romney with minorities and Hillary underperforming with women.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
She's just slightly less toxic than Donald.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_rmNJk4KEs
You are looking for something decisive, e.g. Trump comes into 5 and keeps dropping and so on. At this time the bounces look like market housekeeping.
"While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012."
Better news for Hillary in Florida
Shows that Betfair is notch sensitive to good news for Hillary, IMHO.
But I agree that the CNN exit poll is generally good for Trump.
CA, OR, WA all easily.
If Exits skew East Coast then they might understate Clinton.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago
Exit poll demographics not looking good for a Trump...:)
On CNN at the moment, misses is on BBC - really babying the viewers through it.
CNN Politics @CNNPolitics 1m1 minute ago
BREAKING: A nonprofit has gone to court in North Carolina asking for polls in Durham County to be kept open another 90 minutes
George W Bush and his wife didn't vote for Trump, nor did they vote for Clinton
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article113356933.html
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/796117873995423744
Nothing suggests an atom bomb of an election to me...
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/796123205371097088
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/fl
Immigration control needs to co-opt from Hispanics and Black Americans as well.
Leave did this relatively well in the West Midlands.
I felt there had been no change in the culture wars under Cameron to Blair.
CNN good analysis so far I think
I agree on the point about the culture wars.
Votecastr funny - Clinton leads 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0
You don't get that statistically if rounding to 1dp.
Commander in chief
Hillary 49
Trump 46
Economy
Trump 48
Hillary 46
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796126096563511297
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796126547849703425