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The wisdom of Rod Liddle:

"COFFEE HOUSE US ELECTION
A Donald Trump presidency would be better for Britain"

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/donald-trump-presidency-better-britain/

AndyJS said:

The wisdom of Rod Liddle:

"COFFEE HOUSE US ELECTION
A Donald Trump presidency would be better for Britain"

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/donald-trump-presidency-better-britain/

That could be true actually, lots of links between Trump and Britain on the SNP-UKIP side.

DavidL said:

If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.

Preventing the wrong people from holding power is one of the purest motivations for becoming engaged with the political process.

peter_from_putney said:

Sporting's spread for Hillary cut by 4 ECVs to 302 - 312. Trump +4 now 225 - 235.

Significant ? Probably not ..... yet.

We cant give Clinton away

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

tyson said:

Alanbrooke said:

tyson said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Mortimer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?

Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.

Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....

It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)

I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....

ooh I love grappa,

used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant

It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.

In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.

The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.

Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.

Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.

Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!

My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.

Mine was after a successful business trip to Poland. I drank at least 1.5 bottles of vodka fancied a young filly that turned out to be older than my grandmother then found I'd forgot to pick up my passport from the hotel room until I was on a non stop, 4 hour train to Warsaw!

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.

Preventing the wrong people from holding power is one of the purest motivations for becoming engaged with the political process.

Don't agree. It is far purer to be for something than against something else. Saying that Hillary is not as bad as Trump or vice versa is not a positive reason to vote.

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

The wisdom of Rod Liddle:

"COFFEE HOUSE US ELECTION
A Donald Trump presidency would be better for Britain"

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/donald-trump-presidency-better-britain/

That could be true actually, lots of links between Trump and Britain on the SNP-UKIP side.

And since we very wisely let him have significant real estate in Scotland we are not as likely as most to be bombed.

And not pulling any triggers right now either.

JackW said:

538's Harry Enten's view of Votecastr - Cautious but not dismissive :

"We’ve gotten a lot of questions about Slate’s Votecastr. Slate hopes to tell people who is winning at any time by “by combining proprietary, large-sample polls taken prior to Election Day with targeted, real-time tracking of voter turnout on Tuesday.” We here at FiveThirtyEight don’t dismiss the method out of hand, but it is untested. Therefore, we’re not relying on Votecastr in any capacity, though we are interested in seeing how predictive it ends up being."

I think this view is correct.

Alistair said:

People on here seem to be getting very excited over Republicans voting early.

I think we're very excited, period.

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Morning Consult/Politico exit poll of early and election day voters (18 Oct - 8 Nov) Sample 9,704 :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/early-exit-poll-clinton-ground-game-230943?lo=ut_a1

A very Trumpy exit poll, voters are angry and want a strong leader, it joins the exit poll from Naples Florida on the scales for Trump.

The only thing that goes for Hillary so far is the Votecastr thing.

Can somebody explain to me what Votecaster is, is it just a big exit pole that is being updated thought the day?

Pulpstar said:

I ain't touching a drop with the amount I just loaded onto Betfair.

What have you gone on?

ToryJim said:

Trump loses his Nevada legal action.

That was quick.

Evening all - what time (GMT) does the action start?

And does anyone think that Trump can win?

Jungleland said:

peter_from_putney said:

Sporting's spread for Hillary cut by 4 ECVs to 302 - 312. Trump +4 now 225 - 235.

Significant ? Probably not ..... yet.

We cant give Clinton away

Who's "we" if you don't mind me asking?

BigRich said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Morning Consult/Politico exit poll of early and election day voters (18 Oct - 8 Nov) Sample 9,704 :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/early-exit-poll-clinton-ground-game-230943?lo=ut_a1

A very Trumpy exit poll, voters are angry and want a strong leader, it joins the exit poll from Naples Florida on the scales for Trump.

The only thing that goes for Hillary so far is the Votecastr thing.

Can somebody explain to me what Votecaster is, is it just a big exit pole that is being updated thought the day?

They simply look at who is voting and they assume who that person voted for which candidate, without asking them who they voted for.

Jungleland said:

peter_from_putney said:

Sporting's spread for Hillary cut by 4 ECVs to 302 - 312. Trump +4 now 225 - 235.

Significant ? Probably not ..... yet.

We cant give Clinton away

Hillary can't get arrested.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

tyson said:

Alanbrooke said:

tyson said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Mortimer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?

Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.

Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....

It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)

I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....

ooh I love grappa,

used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant

It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.

In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.

The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.

Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.

Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.

Menorcan Gin is pretty good (distillery was set up when it was a UK Naval base back in Nelson's day) I don't think I have seen or tried any other native gin in Spain* or Portugal**.

* I know, I know - many Menrocans do not consider themselves Spanish or their island part of Spain.

** I once drank gin in Portugal, Christmas day 1971 in a bar overlooking the beach at Carcavelos, but it came out of a Gordon's bottle. With hindsight it was suspiciously cheap (IIRC the tonic was four times the price of the gin), but I have never heard of a native Portuguese gin distillery. They do, or at least did, brew up some other fearful spirits though.

FrancisUrquhart said:

ToryJim said:

MikeL said:

ToryJim said:

Trump loses his Nevada legal action.

That was quick.

The judge didn't look impressed

I can imagine...probably missing his tee time...

It was a her

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

ToryJim said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ToryJim said:

MikeL said:

ToryJim said:

Trump loses his Nevada legal action.

That was quick.

The judge didn't look impressed

I can imagine...probably missing his tee time...

It was a her

Woophss...off to the sexist naughty step for me...

The_Apocalypse said:

GIN1138 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Has the US Election exit poll ever been wrong?

Didn't exit poll famously call 2004 for Kerry?

I have no idea about that lol. Just want to know whether I can/should confidently take the exit poll at face value...

Until actual returns come in I say +/-3%.

peter_from_putney said:

Jungleland said:

peter_from_putney said:

Sporting's spread for Hillary cut by 4 ECVs to 302 - 312. Trump +4 now 225 - 235.

Significant ? Probably not ..... yet.

We cant give Clinton away

Who's "we" if you don't mind me asking?

He is from SPIN.

I've not "backed" anyone yet tonight really, a bit of tinkering on Hillary/Trump (At a tiny profit) - position pretty much a middling one as it was before the night started.

Can we stop talking about alcohol please?

Thanks.

(though I might open a bottle to drown my sorrows tomorrow if Trump wins)

SeanT said:

I'm in remotest Perigord, dying of foie gras poisoning. Can anyone tell me, in two lines, WTF is going on and who's gonna win? Surely it's Clinton?

Merci.

Yes it will be Hillary and comfortably in the EC but much, much closer in the popular vote. Don't expect a result before 6.

JackW said:

538's Harry Enten's view of Votecastr - Cautious but not dismissive :

"We’ve gotten a lot of questions about Slate’s Votecastr. Slate hopes to tell people who is winning at any time by “by combining proprietary, large-sample polls taken prior to Election Day with targeted, real-time tracking of voter turnout on Tuesday.” We here at FiveThirtyEight don’t dismiss the method out of hand, but it is untested. Therefore, we’re not relying on Votecastr in any capacity, though we are interested in seeing how predictive it ends up being."

Well, I suppose one way of looking at it is that even if the model isn't particularly accurate, unless they've made a major error in adding up the numbers it's difficult to see how they could still be putting Clinton 2% ahead in Iowa and 1% ahead in Ohio at the halfway mark, if Trump is going to have the kind of sweeping victory in the mid-West that some have been hoping for/dreading.

GIN1138 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Has the US Election exit poll ever been wrong?

Didn't exit poll famously call 2004 for Kerry?

And 2000 too.....if Gore had won his home state, Florida would not have been a problem.

But in 2008 Bush had a comfortable lead in the national votes...it would have been a travesty for him to lose that one on the basis of Ohio.

Both times Rove had to deliver the bad news to the familiglia Bush

Speedy said:

The_Apocalypse said:

GIN1138 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Has the US Election exit poll ever been wrong?

Didn't exit poll famously call 2004 for Kerry?

I have no idea about that lol. Just want to know whether I can/should confidently take the exit poll at face value...

Until actual returns come in I say +/-3%.

Much larger than that - Dem voters tend to vote later, and I'm not sure how much if any local news reporters would "calibrate" it. Also alot of early votes in.

Apparently problems in NC likely to delay closing of polls. Even less likely to tell us early now.

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

Which one?

SouthamObserver said:

nielh said:

This feels very brexitty.
I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again.
As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.

Trump will be a hugely powerful president - with both Congress and the Supreme Court on his side. He can do a hell of a lot of harm very easily.

Yep. Trump is an absolute nightmare. He may find himself in a corbyn like position with the rest of GOP, but he can still do a lot of damage, as you say.
The historical significance of a trump presidency is difficult to predict, but it will almost certainly involve the dismantling of the international American led rule based international order, with wholly unpredictable consequences.
I have no doubt that Putin, China welcome Trump because he signifies the end of that system. He is a fool and an idiot, but not a hypocrite.

OK, votecastr have un-fubared their numbers, and they're starting to converge on the 538 final polling model, with one big exception: Florida.

Clinton lead, 538/VC (% of expected vote accounted for)

CO: +3.1 / +3.0 (80.3%)
FL: +0.6 / +3.0 (83.9%)
IA: -2.9 / -1.0 (66.5%)
NV: +1.2 / +1.0 (68.8%)
NH: +3.6 / +4.0 (61.9%)
OH: -1.9 / -1.0 (73.7%)
PA: +3.7 / +3.0 (63.2%)
WI: +5.3 / +5.0 (62.0%)


Make of that what you will :-)

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:

I'm in remotest Perigord, dying of foie gras poisoning. Can anyone tell me, in two lines, WTF is going on and who's gonna win? Surely it's Clinton?

Merci.

Everybody thinks it's Clinton (except Ms. Plato) but after Brexit and UK General Election 2015 nobody quite believes it...

Trump could certainly win. From what people are saying it's a harder route for him, but possible.

Looking ahead, it'll be interesting to see if this farce of an election causes the Reps or Dems to rethink things, or whether 2020 will be more of the same (I don't think Clinton will stand for a second term).

SandyRentool said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

Which one?

The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).

At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

Which one?

The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?

OK, thanks.

Yes, the Fuoco is legit stuff, bought from a shop. Obviously targetted at tourists visiting Etna.

SeanT said:

I'm in remotest Perigord, dying of foie gras poisoning. Can anyone tell me, in two lines, WTF is going on and who's gonna win? Surely it's Clinton?

Merci.

Trump is heading for a landslide victory.

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Can we stop talking about alcohol please?

Thanks.

(though I might open a bottle to drown my sorrows tomorrow if Trump wins)

Have you gone "dry" Josias?

Medically dry. Mind, it could be worse: you could be discussing Scotch.

Maybe you'll be able to give yourself a wee dram on NYE?

Hope your treatment is progressing OK?

Yeah, fine thanks. As for a wee dram: I'll just stop the medication for Christmas.

tyson said:

GIN1138 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Has the US Election exit poll ever been wrong?

Didn't exit poll famously call 2004 for Kerry?

And 2000 too.....if Gore had won his home state, Florida would not have been a problem.

But in 2008 Bush had a comfortable lead in the national votes...it would have been a travesty for him to lose that one on the basis of Ohio.

Both times Rove had to deliver the bad news to the familiglia Bush

Bush didn't run in 2008 did he (was Obama V McCain) ?

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

I'm in remotest Perigord, dying of foie gras poisoning. Can anyone tell me, in two lines, WTF is going on and who's gonna win? Surely it's Clinton?

Merci.

Trump is heading for a landslide victory.

So just keep eating.

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

Which one?

The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?

I am guessing that this will be a red coloured Italian liqueur created by infusing herbs and rose petals in strong alcohol, likely to be at least 50 per cent or possibly stronger. I would save that for if Trump wins, if I were you. At least then its strength and likely appalling taste will help you quickly take your mind off earthly things.

JosiasJessop said:

Yeah, fine thanks. As for a wee dram: I'll just stop the medication for Christmas.

Good to hear.

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/AkelaCooper/status/796090720985620480

Sweet Jesus.

WTAF?!?

logical_song said:

IanB2 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).

At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.

?????? (particularly if you are female at the time). ???????????

In body or spirit, it matters not.

Ave_it said:

TRUMP

AVEIT 4 TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!

IanB2 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).

At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.

I think I fail on all those criteria. However, I can't conceive how it could ever taste nice.

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

GIN1138 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Has the US Election exit poll ever been wrong?

Didn't exit poll famously call 2004 for Kerry?

And 2000 too.....if Gore had won his home state, Florida would not have been a problem.

But in 2008 Bush had a comfortable lead in the national votes...it would have been a travesty for him to lose that one on the basis of Ohio.

Both times Rove had to deliver the bad news to the familiglia Bush

Bush didn't run in 2008 did he (was Obama V McCain) ?

I think you are being picky with a pedantic capital P....of course I meant 2004

SandyRentool said:

IanB2 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SandyRentool said:

The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!

Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...

...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.

You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.

You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).

At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.

I think I fail on all those criteria. However, I can't conceive how it could ever taste nice.

I've sipped it overlooking Lake Como. That has to count, and it still tastes rank.

Maybe now is the right moment to discuss the merits of AV.