politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramat
Comments
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Reigning.Tykejohnno said:
These posters forget she was PB poster of the year.MonikerDiCanio said:
The fuddy duddies hate Queen Plato.taffys said:Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.
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I agree completely, I think we are sadly seeing the beginnings of societal breakdown in the US, a complete disconnect and distrust between the people and the government. That the two leading political parties can choose the two most distrusted candidates ever seen, suggests a breakdown in the political process too. The Bernie Sanders supporters are just as angry as the Trump supporters.PlatoSaid said:
You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.Sandpit said:
There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!rottenborough said:Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks
Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.
Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
No matter who wins next week, that breakdown (and the reasons behind it) is not going away any time soon, and I fear it will get a lot worse before it gets better.
Whoever enters the White House in January is in for a very tough four years, they will almost certainly be a single term president.0 -
Polling Report
NEVADA
President:
Clinton (D) 45%
Trump (R) 45%
Johnson (L) 4%
(8 News NOW/JMC Analytics and Polling-R, LV, 10/28 - 11/1)0 -
Trump's voters ie primarily white working and lower-middle class, non-college graduates are very similar to the core of the Leave vote. In EU ref white graduates tended to be for Remain, as they are for Hillary in the US while ethnic minority voters are voting for Hillary with little enthusiasm, if they vote at all, much the same as they felt about the EUJackW said:
And the precise relevance of a US POTUS election and a UK referendum is .... ??HYUFD said:0 -
given the age of the two front runners isnt a single term nailed on?Sandpit said:
I agree completely, I think we are sadly seeing the beginnings of societal breakdown in the US, a complete disconnect and distrust between the people and the government. That the two leading political parties can choose the two most distrusted candidates ever seen, suggests a breakdown in the political process too. The Bernie Sanders supporters are just as angry as the Trump supporters.PlatoSaid said:
You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.Sandpit said:
There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!rottenborough said:Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks
Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.
Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
No matter who wins next week, that breakdown (and the reasons behind it) is not going away any time soon, and I fear it will get a lot worse before it gets better.
Whoever enters the White House in January is in for a very tough four years, they will almost certainly be a single term president.0 -
More I think a rare breed with a large proboscis for news .... - Platopussy ....tyson said:
I'd give it her again....I'd vote for her. The Platomator......Tykejohnno said:
These posters forget she was PB poster of the year.MonikerDiCanio said:
The fuddy duddies hate Queen Plato.taffys said:Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.
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One would think so. Hillary will be 69 and Trump 70 on inauguration day.Alanbrooke said:
given the age of the two front runners isnt a single term nailed on?Sandpit said:
I agree completely, I think we are sadly seeing the beginnings of societal breakdown in the US, a complete disconnect and distrust between the people and the government. That the two leading political parties can choose the two most distrusted candidates ever seen, suggests a breakdown in the political process too. The Bernie Sanders supporters are just as angry as the Trump supporters.PlatoSaid said:
You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.Sandpit said:
There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!rottenborough said:Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks
Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.
Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
No matter who wins next week, that breakdown (and the reasons behind it) is not going away any time soon, and I fear it will get a lot worse before it gets better.
Whoever enters the White House in January is in for a very tough four years, they will almost certainly be a single term president.
Edit: @SeanT has a much better way with words than I do!0 -
Given Cruz or Warren are likely to be the potential nominees in 2020 depending on whether Hillary or Trump wins that is not a givenSandpit said:
I agree completely, I think we are sadly seeing the beginnings of societal breakdown in the US, a complete disconnect and distrust between the people and the government. That the two leading political parties can choose the two most distrusted candidates ever seen, suggests a breakdown in the political process too. The Bernie Sanders supporters are just as angry as the Trump supporters.PlatoSaid said:
You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.Sandpit said:
There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!rottenborough said:Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks
Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.
Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
No matter who wins next week, that breakdown (and the reasons behind it) is not going away any time soon, and I fear it will get a lot worse before it gets better.
Whoever enters the White House in January is in for a very tough four years, they will almost certainly be a single term president.0 -
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.0 -
Trump seems in the prime of life. Hillary is a physical, mental and moral wreck.Sandpit said:
One would think so. Hillary will be 69 and Trump 70 on inauguration day.Alanbrooke said:
given the age of the two front runners isnt a single term nailed on?Sandpit said:
I agree completely, I think we are sadly seeing the beginnings of societal breakdown in the US, a complete disconnect and distrust between the people and the government. That the two leading political parties can choose the two most distrusted candidates ever seen, suggests a breakdown in the political process too. The Bernie Sanders supporters are just as angry as the Trump supporters.PlatoSaid said:
You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.Sandpit said:
There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!rottenborough said:Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks
Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.
Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
No matter who wins next week, that breakdown (and the reasons behind it) is not going away any time soon, and I fear it will get a lot worse before it gets better.
Whoever enters the White House in January is in for a very tough four years, they will almost certainly be a single term president.
Edit: @SeanT has a much better way with words than I do!0 -
Romney was accused of abusing his dog FFS.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to sRoomney topping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Obama wrote that he ate one.
It's insane stuff.0 -
Interesting that it's happening now rather than in 2008 right after the crash.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.0 -
Well, in 2012 Obama out preformed the RCP poll average by about 3%chestnut said:
That conceals an enormous methodological fail with one type of polling, while the consensus among 'experts' before the result was that the flawed polling was correct, and the correct polling was flawed.Alistair said:
The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.HYUFD said:
Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucialtaffys said:''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''
It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.
The consistent outcome in this country over many elections is the shy-right being under counted.
I have no idea if that characteristic applies in the US.0 -
So apart from being in different countries and a completely different variety of election in different states with demographics in many states totally different from the UK and a vastly different political system .... the two events are completely alike ....HYUFD said:
Trump's voters ie primarily white working and lower-middle class, non-college graduates are very similar to the core of the Leave vote. In EU ref white graduates tended to be for Remain, as they are for Hillary in the US while ethnic minority voters are voting for Hillary with little enthusiasm, if they vote at all, much the same as they felt about the EUJackW said:
And the precise relevance of a US POTUS election and a UK referendum is .... ??HYUFD said:0 -
If it's going to be close, betting on Trump at the current 1.7 or so in the Betfair +99.5 handicap market looks an attractive deal. I've just taken some to rebalance my risk profile.0
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Trump needs to make more of it that he's sacrificed everything for this - he's been annihilated, smeared and ridiculed in the media - and his family caught in the crossfire.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
He was an entertainer billionaire and chose to become a public servant paid on his own dime.
It's quite something when you think about it,0 -
Yes, that's why I think if he wins he could get a surprising honeymoon as people, especially in the media, digest the enormity of his achievement in getting this far.PlatoSaid said:
Trump needs to make more of is that he's sacrificed everything for this - he's been annihilated, smeared and ridiculed in the media - and his family caught in the crossfire.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
He was an entertainer billionaire and chose to become a public servant paid on his own dime.
It's quite something when you think about it,0 -
was there a stray "t" in your last word?SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.0 -
They are alike in the sense that the Trump phenomenon is exactly the same nationalist backlash against globalisation driven by concern over immigration and to a lesser extent lost sovereignty to NAFTA etc as drove Brexit and is also on the rise in continental Europe too. Over 70% of the US population is still white and Trump will likely win an even larger share of the white vote than Leave did. If Trump won by 4% as Leave did he would comfortably win the electoral collegeJackW said:
So apart from being in different countries and a completely different variety of election in different states with demographics in many states totally different from the UK and a vastly different political system .... the two events are completely alike ....HYUFD said:
Trump's voters ie primarily white working and lower-middle class, non-college graduates are very similar to the core of the Leave vote. In EU ref white graduates tended to be for Remain, as they are for Hillary in the US while ethnic minority voters are voting for Hillary with little enthusiasm, if they vote at all, much the same as they felt about the EUJackW said:
And the precise relevance of a US POTUS election and a UK referendum is .... ??HYUFD said:0 -
Sorry Casino, I can't agree with your conclusion - by my reckoning she is virtually certain to become the next POTUS, but based on the various permutations above, she possibly has something like between an 8/1 - 10/1 chance of winning all 3 close states and thereby hitting a total of 329 ECVs, unless I've missed something.Casino_Royale said:
You can buy a bit of Clinton<329 ECVs on Betfair exchange 'Clinton2' market at 1.35, I think. Which is more or less the same price for her to be next President. A bit less risky at that price, IMHO.</p>peter_from_putney said:It seems to me that where there is a difference of more than 20% between the two parties, i.e. > 60% : 40%, the outcome in just a few days time is more or less a foregone conclusion.
In fact there are only 3 states out of the 50 which fail this > 20% test, all of which are leaning towards Clinton, these being North Carolina with 15 ECVs, Florida with 29 ECVs and Nevada with 6 ECVs.
Leaving aside these three States, she has the support of 279 ECVs and therefore appears assured of becoming the next POTUS. Were she to win all three of these three closely contested States, she would collect a further 50 ECVs, taking her total tally to 329 ECVs, which is roughly where we were before Hillary's email bother with the FBI blew up last week.
Between her minimum score of 279 ECVs and maximum of 329 ECVs, depending on which of these 3 states she were to win or lose, it seems to me that her final result is likely to be as follows:
Win FL, lose NC and NV ....... 308
Win FL & NC, lose NV ......... 323
Win FL & NV, lose NC ......... 314
Win NC, lose FL & NV ........ 294
Win NC & NV, lose FL ......... 300
Win NV, lose FL & NC ......... 2850 -
After re-reading my post, I did think my name for Plato could be construed as some kind of pleasurable instrument for the fairer sex...but yours, a bit more so...JackW said:
More I think a rare breed with a large proboscis for news .... - Platopussy ....tyson said:
I'd give it her again....I'd vote for her. The Platomator......Tykejohnno said:
These posters forget she was PB poster of the year.MonikerDiCanio said:
The fuddy duddies hate Queen Plato.taffys said:Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.
Doubtless, knowing your love of tennis, you are gripped as I am to tonight's match...
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Changing subject WTF is up with UKIP Wales ? Their candidate for this weeks Cardiff Grangetown by elction lives in Swindon Wilts . Their candidate for the Barry Gibbonsdown election later this month is a councillor from Skegness . Do they not have anyone Welsh who wants to stand for them ?0
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In that case, Clinton should win.Alistair said:
Well, in 2012 Obama out preformed the RCP poll average by about 3%chestnut said:
That conceals an enormous methodological fail with one type of polling, while the consensus among 'experts' before the result was that the flawed polling was correct, and the correct polling was flawed.Alistair said:
The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.HYUFD said:
Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucialtaffys said:''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''
It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.
The consistent outcome in this country over many elections is the shy-right being under counted.
I have no idea if that characteristic applies in the US.
I'm not sure that we can read anything at all across from British attitudes and behaviours when polled to those of Americans but I do understand why people are wondering. It feels like the whole world is drifting to the right and pushing for change.0 -
All self inflicted , and the pursuit of power by such an egomaniac, isn't something, its terrifying. Its not worth applauding, he is loaded. God help America, whomever is elected.PlatoSaid said:
Trump needs to make more of it that he's sacrificed everything for this - he's been annihilated, smeared and ridiculed in the media - and his family caught in the crossfire.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
He was an entertainer billionaire and chose to become a public servant paid on his own dime.
It's quite something when you think about it,0 -
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.0 -
Mark...I don't want to be rude....but faced against the possibility that we might just possibly see the worst leader in a major Western country since Hitler...the machinations of UKIP in Wales seem somewhat trivial...I might be wrong...BUTMarkSenior said:Changing subject WTF is up with UKIP Wales ? Their candidate for this weeks Cardiff Grangetown by elction lives in Swindon Wilts . Their candidate for the Barry Gibbonsdown election later this month is a councillor from Skegness . Do they not have anyone Welsh who wants to stand for them ?
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The polls have swung big time to Trump, wrongly, and hillary has been ahead throughout?SeanT said:
In the last two days, though, the polls swang bigtime to Remain. Wrongly.Alistair said:
The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.HYUFD said:
Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucialtaffys said:''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''
It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.
And it now seems all the pro-Remain polls were wrong, and Brexit was ahead throughout.
Apply that to Trump....0 -
And I think you're fundamentally mistaken. You're applying your British liberal attitudes to American blue collars and others.SquareRoot said:
All self inflicted , and the pursuit of power by such an egomaniac, isn't something, its terrifying. Its not worth applauding, he is loaded. God help America, whomever is elected.PlatoSaid said:
Trump needs to make more of it that he's sacrificed everything for this - he's been annihilated, smeared and ridiculed in the media - and his family caught in the crossfire.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
He was an entertainer billionaire and chose to become a public servant paid on his own dime.
It's quite something when you think about it,
All I can do is provide some balance to PB here - YMMV.0 -
I have had chicken for Christmas every year since about 1990, when we realised that nobody in the family really likes turkey, and stuff tradition.MaxPB said:
Hmm that might be a problem since I have 8 people to serve including myself. I just find turkey so bland.SimonStClare said:
Goose is very fatty and despite their size, you’ll struggle to feed more than four I've found.MaxPB said:Any Christmas dinner experts out there, this year it is my turn to host dinner, what are the pros and cons of getting a goose? I'm putting together an order and the option to get a goose is available.
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You have to credit the Yanks with a bit more sense that the Italians.......FF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Berlusconi...what can you say? Trump is worse....and that is really saying something.
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Good news.AlastairMeeks said:
We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.
MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU
My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
I had no idea how beautiful County Antrim is, till I went on holiday there in August. I imagine it's a great place to convalesce.0 -
Nevada looking very ropey for HRC in recent polls - not sure of reasons why.
I see Trump has visited New Mexico presumably to try to squeeze the Johnson vote in another south western state.0 -
BwahahahaFF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Seriously? No. Trump is doing that, not Hillary 2.0 She's only interested in personal riches - Trump isn't - he's assets worth over $3bn IIRC0 -
At least Berlusca was democratically elected. Unlike Monti, Letta and now boy Renzi. But you wouldn't care.tyson said:
You have to credit the Yanks with a bit more sense that the Italians.......FF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Berlusconi...what can you say? Trump is worse....and that is really saying something.0 -
Indeed, just as JackW is reigning TOTY ..... excuse me whilst I *cough* !MonikerDiCanio said:
Reigning.Tykejohnno said:
These posters forget she was PB poster of the year.MonikerDiCanio said:
The fuddy duddies hate Queen Plato.taffys said:Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.
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Battleground States - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Samples Below .. 28 Oct - 1 Nov
AZ - Clinton 41 .. Trump 42 .. 1,133
CO - Clinton 44 .. Trump 37 .. 972
NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 38 .. 892
NM - Clinton 39 .. Trump 31 .. 567
https://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Arizona-Battleground-Results.pdf
https://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Colorado-Battleground-Results.pdf
https://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Nevada-Battleground-Results.pdf
https://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/New-Mexico-Battleground-Results.pdf0 -
Few better places. The scenery is stunning, and the pubs and restaurants range from good to excellent.tyson said:
Alistair...the fact that you could go for a trip to Northern Ireland and come back emboldened....that is really saying something.......my very best wishes to you both for the future....AlastairMeeks said:
We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.
MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU
My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.0 -
Trump says his whole life was based on greed:PlatoSaid said:
BwahahahaFF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Seriously? No. Trump is doing that, not Hillary 2.0 She's only interested in personal riches - Trump isn't - he's assets worth over $3bn IIRC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnYMqUDi8M00 -
Clinton is the Berlusconi figure though - at least in terms of each not being on speaking terms with public probity....tyson said:
You have to credit the Yanks with a bit more sense that the Italians.......FF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Berlusconi...what can you say? Trump is worse....and that is really saying something.
As far as I know, nobody has been in the US media recently talking about the Trump "crime family".
And to repeat, I don't get giddy at the notion of President Donald Trump. It's absurd. But I also have a profound distrust of Hillary Clinton.0 -
I really don't care...I know very well some of the lumpen Italian morons who voted Breslusconi....they should be just as much trusted with the vote as many of them are entrusted with car keys....ie. as far away as possible.......MonikerDiCanio said:
At least Berluska was democratically elected. Unlike Monti, Letta and now boy Renzi. But you wouldn't care.tyson said:
You have to credit the Yanks with a bit more sense that the Italians.......FF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Berlusconi...what can you say? Trump is worse....and that is really saying something.0 -
Interesting stuff
Caroll Dehwety
Remembering when 'dual-screening' election results was a thing, all the way back in 2012.
https://t.co/uVdoNRWTCs https://t.co/2MTYXSvRsW0 -
2016. The year that said "don't look to me for answers, go fuck yourself...."SeanT said:
Yes, quite possibly the case. I can envisage every possibility from a surprisingly good Clinton win (like Cameron in 2015) to an utterly shocking Trump victory (like Brexit)Alistair said:
The polls have swung big time to Trump, wrongly, and hillary has been ahead throughout?SeanT said:
In the last two days, though, the polls swang bigtime to Remain. Wrongly.Alistair said:
The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.HYUFD said:
Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucialtaffys said:''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''
It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.
And it now seems all the pro-Remain polls were wrong, and Brexit was ahead throughout.
Apply that to Trump....
Remember this is 2016. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN 2016, AND PROBABLY WILL0 -
There are trends common to the US, Western Europe, and the UK. I think that the dream of Davos Man, a borderless World, can only be achieved at gunpoint now.SeanT said:
The fact is lots and lots of White America wants America to stay majority white. That's the unspoken truth here.HYUFD said:
They are alike in the sense that the Trump phenomenon is exactly the same nationalist backlash against globalisation driven by concern over immigration and to a lesser extent lost sovereignty to NAFTA etc as drove Brexit and is also on the rise in continental Europe too. Over 70% of the US population is still white and Trump will likely win an even larger share of the white vote than Leave did. If Trump won by 4% as Leave did he would comfortably win the electoral collegeJackW said:
So apart from being in different countries and a completely different variety of election in different states with demographics in many states totally different from the UK and a vastly different political system .... the two events are completely alike ....HYUFD said:
Trump's voters ie primarily white working and lower-middle class, non-college graduates are very similar to the core of the Leave vote. In EU ref white graduates tended to be for Remain, as they are for Hillary in the US while ethnic minority voters are voting for Hillary with little enthusiasm, if they vote at all, much the same as they felt about the EUJackW said:
And the precise relevance of a US POTUS election and a UK referendum is .... ??HYUFD said:
To achieve that you would need radically different immigration policies. Only Trump offers that.
Eventually - presuming Trump loses - a sane Republican will come along with this offer, preserving a white America, and that candidate will win an enormous victory.0 -
The guillotine was invented for the likes of you. I wish we lived in better times.tyson said:
I really don't care...I know very well some of the lumpen Italian morons who voted Breslusconi....they should be just as much trusted with the vote as many of them are entrusted with car keys....ie. as far away as possible.......MonikerDiCanio said:
At least Berluska was democratically elected. Unlike Monti, Letta and now boy Renzi. But you wouldn't care.tyson said:
You have to credit the Yanks with a bit more sense that the Italians.......FF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Berlusconi...what can you say? Trump is worse....and that is really saying something.0 -
ThreeQuidder said:
I have had chicken for Christmas every year since about 1990, when we realised that nobody in the family really likes turkey, and stuff tradition.MaxPB said:
Hmm that might be a problem since I have 8 people to serve including myself. I just find turkey so bland.SimonStClare said:
Goose is very fatty and despite their size, you’ll struggle to feed more than four I've found.MaxPB said:Any Christmas dinner experts out there, this year it is my turn to host dinner, what are the pros and cons of getting a goose? I'm putting together an order and the option to get a goose is available.
As a veggie...if I could throw my tuppence in here....that is a no brainer. An organic, well fed chicken....it's what I cook for my dog (I'm not that bonkers about not eating meat). Surely that is the best option for a roast if you are considering killing an animal....a bipedal one that has had a good innings is surely preferable.
Failing free range chicken, lamb is as close as you can come to a naturally reared animal (albeit slightly short lived).
Turkeys are treated terribly. God knows what they do with geese. And beef.....I'd have to see how they are reared. That really depends...0 -
Ladies and Gentlemen, please accompany me to the next thread. An orderly queue if you wouldn't mind.0
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Weirdest poll yet today. If that is right - meet President Trump.PlatoSaid said:Fox News
Virginia Poll: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton 44% to 41%. https://t.co/8fDJtjbObo0 -
I vividly recall being called a racist xenophobe here by someone who authors thread headers for saying I felt intimidated on Whitechapel tube platform. You know who you are.Sean_F said:
There are trends common to the US, Western Europe, and the UK. I think that the dream of Davos Man, a borderless World, can only be achieved at gunpoint now.SeanT said:
The fact is lots and lots of White America wants America to stay majority white. That's the unspoken truth here.HYUFD said:
They are alike in the sense that the Trump phenomenon is exactly the same nationalist backlash against globalisation driven by concern over immigration and to a lesser extent lost sovereignty to NAFTA etc as drove Brexit and is also on the rise in continental Europe too. Over 70% of the US population is still white and Trump will likely win an even larger share of the white vote than Leave did. If Trump won by 4% as Leave did he would comfortably win the electoral collegeJackW said:
So apart from being in different countries and a completely different variety of election in different states with demographics in many states totally different from the UK and a vastly different political system .... the two events are completely alike ....HYUFD said:
Trump's voters ie primarily white working and lower-middle class, non-college graduates are very similar to the core of the Leave vote. In EU ref white graduates tended to be for Remain, as they are for Hillary in the US while ethnic minority voters are voting for Hillary with little enthusiasm, if they vote at all, much the same as they felt about the EUJackW said:
And the precise relevance of a US POTUS election and a UK referendum is .... ??HYUFD said:
To achieve that you would need radically different immigration policies. Only Trump offers that.
Eventually - presuming Trump loses - a sane Republican will come along with this offer, preserving a white America, and that candidate will win an enormous victory.
A business meeting in Luton visit left me feeling threatened by a taxi driver who looked at my sleeveless dress as scummy. It's just dreadful.
I detest it all. And there's far too much excuse making for it.0 -
Don't believe him! Much of it was based on lust ...The_Taxman said:
Trump says his whole life was based on greed:PlatoSaid said:
BwahahahaFF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Seriously? No. Trump is doing that, not Hillary 2.0 She's only interested in personal riches - Trump isn't - he's assets worth over $3bn IIRC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnYMqUDi8M00 -
If you get time try Co Down.Sean_F said:
Good news.AlastairMeeks said:
We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.
MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU
My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
I had no idea how beautiful County Antrim is, till I went on holiday there in August. I imagine it's a great place to convalesce.
Lots of stately homes, Mourne Mountains, Ards peninsula, Game of Thrones if youre in to it.
Gentler scenery but a nice contrast to Antrim0 -
Oh, she certainly isn't certain.peter_from_putney said:
Sorry Casino, I can't agree with your conclusion - by my reckoning she is virtually certain to become the next POTUS, but based on the various permutations above, she possibly has something like between an 8/1 - 10/1 chance of winning all 3 close states and thereby hitting a total of 329 ECVs, unless I've missed something.Casino_Royale said:
You can buy a bit of Clinton<329 ECVs on Betfair exchange 'Clinton2' market at 1.35, I think. Which is more or less the same price for her to be next President. A bit less risky at that price, IMHO.</p>peter_from_putney said:It seems to me that where there is a difference of more than 20% between the two parties, i.e. > 60% : 40%, the outcome in just a few days time is more or less a foregone conclusion.
In fact there are only 3 states out of the 50 which fail this > 20% test, all of which are leaning towards Clinton, these being North Carolina with 15 ECVs, Florida with 29 ECVs and Nevada with 6 ECVs.
Leaving aside these three States, she has the support of 279 ECVs and therefore appears assured of becoming the next POTUS. Were she to win all three of these three closely contested States, she would collect a further 50 ECVs, taking her total tally to 329 ECVs, which is roughly where we were before Hillary's email bother with the FBI blew up last week.
Between her minimum score of 279 ECVs and maximum of 329 ECVs, depending on which of these 3 states she were to win or lose, it seems to me that her final result is likely to be as follows:
Win FL, lose NC and NV ....... 308
Win FL & NC, lose NV ......... 323
Win FL & NV, lose NC ......... 314
Win NC, lose FL & NV ........ 294
Win NC & NV, lose FL ......... 300
Win NV, lose FL & NC ......... 285
Your odds would still make my bet value.0 -
And in a landslide...MarqueeMark said:
Weirdest poll yet today. If that is right - meet President Trump.PlatoSaid said:Fox News
Virginia Poll: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton 44% to 41%. https://t.co/8fDJtjbObo0 -
In the lead?SeanT said:
History is on our side Moniker. Brexit is just the beginning. Of that I am quite, quite sure. The pendulum has swung against the Islam-loving Guardianista globalist traitors, and, as ever, England is in the lead.MonikerDiCanio said:
The guillotine was invented for the likes of you. I wish we lived in better times.tyson said:
I really don't care...I know very well some of the lumpen Italian morons who voted Breslusconi....they should be just as much trusted with the vote as many of them are entrusted with car keys....ie. as far away as possible.......MonikerDiCanio said:
At least Berluska was democratically elected. Unlike Monti, Letta and now boy Renzi. But you wouldn't care.tyson said:
You have to credit the Yanks with a bit more sense that the Italians.......FF43 said:
The main thing about Trump, that is rather little remarked on, is his deep cynicism. Despite being a product of the money machine, and something of a robot herself, Clinton's cause is the optimistic one.williamglenn said:
Bear in mind that he was up against the establishment machines in both parties so even if he were a saint he would have had his character assassinated.SeanT said:The startling thing about this election is that a *Charming Trump*, i.e. minus his pussy grabbing and weird boasting and dodgy deals, but with all of his contentious policies - from the Mexican wall to stopping Muslims to buddying with Putin - would, I reckon, have swept to a landslide.
America is in the mood for populist nativism.
Still, Berlusconi got himself elected repeatedly by tapping into a base Italian psyche. He didn't do Italy any good, but there you go.
Berlusconi...what can you say? Trump is worse....and that is really saying something.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/gymnastics/378327540 -
NEW THREAD0
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There are a lot of right-wing posters on here, much more right-wing I'd say than your average person in this country. Also, 619 is right - Trump is a racist, sexist idiot. I'm not surprised that posters like GeoffM and others don't think Trump's a racist. They probably think the KKK aren't a bunch of racists as well. It's not a coincidence that one of the biggest Trump fans on this site (who is now no longer on here) was a Holocaust denier FFS.The_Taxman said:I am amused by some of the comments on here today with regard to Trump. Anyone would think he is riding a crest of a wave, when in reality he has slightly improved his polling. He seems to have a ceiling he cannot pass through. Clinton on the other hand has a higher floor and higher ceiling. This is probably as good as it gets for Trump and I suspect something else will come out of the woodwork with regards to Trump over the coming days.
I am also puzzled by some British posters on this site wanting Trump to win. ODD!
It's pretty damn disappointing that Clinton is the Democratic candidate, but she isn't Trump.0 -
The_Apocalypse said:
There are a lot of right-wing posters on here, much more right-wing I'd say than your average person in this country. Also, 619 is right - Trump is a racist, sexist idiot. I'm not surprised that posters like GeoffM and others don't think Trump's a racist. They probably think the KKK aren't a bunch of racists as well. It's not a coincidence that one of the biggest Trump fans on this site (who is now no longer on here) was a Holocaust denier FFS.The_Taxman said:I am amused by some of the comments on here today with regard to Trump. Anyone would think he is riding a crest of a wave, when in reality he has slightly improved his polling. He seems to have a ceiling he cannot pass through. Clinton on the other hand has a higher floor and higher ceiling. This is probably as good as it gets for Trump and I suspect something else will come out of the woodwork with regards to Trump over the coming days.
I am also puzzled by some British posters on this site wanting Trump to win. ODD!
It's pretty damn disappointing that Clinton is the Democratic candidate, but she isn't Trump.0
