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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramat

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Thanks for the reply. IMHO Hillary Clinton is completely unfit to be president, as she would be unfit to work at your company, let alone get a promotion.

    Now Donald Trump is an idiot, and really shouldn't still be in the race. If I were American, I'd want to live in Utah so I could vote for McMullin. Failing that, I'd vote Johnson>Trump>Clinton
    If Hilary were an employee where I work she would be dismissed for breaches of procedures. Maintenance of confidentiality is very important. But that is a long way from saying that someone is a criminal. Let alone saying that someone is unfit to be President.

    LBJ was a pretty corrupt politician. And yet, Vietnam aside, he has some claims to be considered a great President for what he did in relation to civil rights for blacks and his attempt to help the poor, both black and white in the US. And Nixon too had achievements to his name.
    My understanding (I am not a lawyer) is that breaches of confidence when it comes to government classified material are indeed illegal, and that a number of people have been imprisoned for being in possession of such. That Hillary claims she didn't know that "C" markings on a document mean it is classified, is completely disingenuous. Your hypothetical rogue trader wouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt on such points, and we should be holding those who seek public office to the highest standards of probity.

    Oh yes, there have been a number of corrupt and philandering presidents past, but that should not mean that we need to elect another.

    I posted a link a couple of threads back to a funny and nonparstisan take on the idea that this election is somehow unique for the poor quality of the candidates, he goes through a number of the rouges that have gone before.
    Adam Conover - Adam Ruins Everything Election Special.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXwrQTWKffU
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MrsB said:

    I remember that years ago Plato used to post some sensible stuff. Mainly about cats IIRC.

    I remember when you posted good limericks - and not endless sanctimonious patronising bollocks.

    :smile:
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Marquette Wisconsin

    Oct 26-31

    Hillary +6
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited November 2016

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    The Left are very happy for views to be aired .... just as long as they are approved first.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    Are early voters a representative sample?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    PlatoSaid said:

    MrsB said:

    I remember that years ago Plato used to post some sensible stuff. Mainly about cats IIRC.

    I remember when you posted good limericks - and not endless sanctimonious patronising bollocks.

    :smile:
    You've got a better memory than me.
    I don't remember any good limericks.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    ooof. Dems lead in early voting but that looks like a lot of republicans are voting Clinton
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    taffys said:

    Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.

    If trump rampers could post something other than lies and cherry picked polls I might listen to them.

    It is the Trump rampers constantly complaining and moaning about not having their latest alt-right conspiracy theory not being taken seriously.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Nate Silver
    Each candidate won Florida exactly 5,000 times in our 10,000 simulations just now. https://t.co/WLXtJovjYd https://t.co/e9IN5Etnnj

    Now surely EVERYONE can agree that one is worth Plato re-posting?
    I take the hate as a compliment - if it didn't threaten them, they'd not bother.

    It's all most entertaining. What sort of small dick wanker can't take Unsafe Space stuff? :wink:
    "You know, if you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything, wouldn't you, at any time? And you would achieve nothing!"
    - M. H. Thatcher, interview 3/5/1989
    Ha!

    :love:
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    Even Lib Dems can only take so much before we crack. It's very hard having to remember to be nice all the time.
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    SeanT said:

    Mr. T, sorry to hear of your friend. As you say, it's tragic (worsened by the failed surgery).

    I'm trying to console her, but, really, what can you say? What can you possibly say that might comfort?

    Horrible.
    You let her lead the conversation. And you visit her little and often: five half hour visits are worth far more than one 3 hour visit. Talk with her about your life (not just hers) and make practical plans for things you can do together. Then do them.

    In the end, friendship is a huge consolation. Such cruelties happen daily, unnoticed by all but friends and family. The truly unlucky are those whose friends don't rally round. In time, new ambitions will emerge from the ashes.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    Are early voters a representative sample?
    Obama comfortably won early voters in 2012, including in North Carolina by double-digits however Romney won the state, most pollsters factor early voting into their figures
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    SeanT said:

    Shall we lay off Plato? Her comments might be a bit repetitive, but some of what she says and reposts is interesting and insightful.

    And we all have times when we go a bit monomaniac. We're all nerdy and obsessive in our own way. That's why we're here.

    And besides, there's just 8 more days to go.

    Then back to AV discussions? :o
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    SeanT said:

    Mr. T, sorry to hear of your friend. As you say, it's tragic (worsened by the failed surgery).

    I'm trying to console her, but, really, what can you say? What can you possibly say that might comfort?

    Horrible.
    You let her lead the conversation. And you visit her little and often: five half hour visits are worth far more than one 3 hour visit. Talk with her about your life (not just hers) and make practical plans for things you can do together. Then do them.

    In the end, friendship is a huge consolation. Such cruelties happen daily, unnoticed by all but friends and family. The truly unlucky are those whose friends don't rally round. In time, new ambitions will emerge from the ashes.
    Well said
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    619 said:

    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    ooof. Dems lead in early voting but that looks like a lot of republicans are voting Clinton
    That was my take but assume EV figures aren't representative sample?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    SeanT said:

    Shall we lay off Plato? Her comments might be a bit repetitive, but some of what she says and reposts is interesting and insightful.

    And we all have times when we go a bit monomaniac. We're all nerdy and obsessive in our own way. That's why we're here.

    And besides, there's just 8 more days to go.

    SIX
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    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    PlatoSaid said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    WTH

    Bill Mitchell
    Trump now leads the CPP Poll in VA by 3 that he previously trailed by 12. Wowsers!

    https://t.co/mtYTJUwA6t

    Lol it is brown trouser time for the spread sellers if Trump is ahead in fricking Virginia :p
    This whole thing is insane - the pollsters are using useless D+ and Trump is still winning.

    Reagan reversed his massive deficit because of two things - a late debate and Carter's failure to resolve the Iranian hostage crisis the weekend before polling.

    This is a totally different game.
    I am long Trump (and anyone who doesn't load up on the SpreadEx 250+ market for Trump is an idiot), but you do sound a bit like StuartTruth at times.

    So, I should post things you agree with instead - rather than the Trump community I watch and read?

    What an odd view. I've immersed myself in this movement to provide some insight - it's fascinating. Still, poo poo it if that suits.
    "This whole thing is insane - the pollsters are using useless D+ and Trump is still winning" may or may not be correct, and time will tell.

    But it is certainly not analysis.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    SeanT said:

    Shall we lay off Plato? Her comments might be a bit repetitive, but some of what she says and reposts is interesting and insightful.

    And we all have times when we go a bit monomaniac. We're all nerdy and obsessive in our own way. That's why we're here.

    And besides, there's just 8 more days to go.

    Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    Are early voters a representative sample?
    Not according to Sean Trende, in the article I cited above.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we lay off Plato? Her comments might be a bit repetitive, but some of what she says and reposts is interesting and insightful.

    And we all have times when we go a bit monomaniac. We're all nerdy and obsessive in our own way. That's why we're here.

    And besides, there's just 8 more days to go.

    SIX
    Sean can open another two windows on his PB advent calendar.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Nate Silver
    Each candidate won Florida exactly 5,000 times in our 10,000 simulations just now. https://t.co/WLXtJovjYd https://t.co/e9IN5Etnnj

    Now surely EVERYONE can agree that one is worth Plato re-posting?
    I take the hate as a compliment - if it didn't threaten them, they'd not bother.

    It's all most entertaining. What sort of small dick wanker can't take Unsafe Space stuff? :wink:
    Jeez.....I once said that I find right wing ideological women particularly sexually repulsive and repellant (al la Coulter and Hopkins)... and made a reference to Plato's posts....which I still do. I'm not particularly attracted to Corbynite lefties to be honest...but we don't appear to have many of them around here.

    But hell hath no fury as they say......
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I have just had a look at some of the Clinton WikiLeaks.

    I have to say it is the biggest overhyped nonsense. Boring....
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    Mr. HYUFD, to be fair, most Leavers thought Remain would win. I still did.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MrsB said:

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    Even Lib Dems can only take so much before we crack. It's very hard having to remember to be nice all the time.
    Genuinely nice people know that being nice comes naturally and isn't an effort.

    LibDems wouldn't have any reason to know that, of course, so you are excused.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    Are early voters a representative sample?
    Obama comfortably won early voters in 2012, including in North Carolina by double-digits however Romney won the state
    My biggest problem with the polling is the enormous D+ values - they're 2008 = Hillary isn't black and isn't an orator. She's not a best selling author, doesn't have 70k at rallies nor control of social media.

    It's a total joke to compare the two. I fear too many PBers are being hoodwinked by polls [WTF YET AGAIN] whilst the obvious is right in front of them.

    Still, if they prefer those to their lying eyes - I can't help them.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.

    So 10%, 6%, 10% for Johnson + Stein? Those are double what RCP's tracker says: 4%, 3% (Johnson only), 6%. Or are they Won't Says or what?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we lay off Plato? Her comments might be a bit repetitive, but some of what she says and reposts is interesting and insightful.

    And we all have times when we go a bit monomaniac. We're all nerdy and obsessive in our own way. That's why we're here.

    And besides, there's just 8 more days to go.

    SIX
    Sean can open another two windows on his PB advent calendar.
    I dread to think what might be in a SeanT advent calendar...
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''

    It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    Battleground States - Quinnipiac - Samples Below - 27 Oct - 1 Nov

    FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 .. 626
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45 .. 602
    OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 47 .. 589
    PA - Clinton 50 .. Trump 44 .. 612

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Quinnipiac.NOV.2.SWING.1.pdf

    your numbers are different to 619?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I have just had a look at some of the Clinton WikiLeaks.

    I have to say it is the biggest overhyped nonsense. Boring....

    Really? Which ones did you look at?
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    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Somewhat off-topic, I heard today that a friend of mine, a 19 year old student, fun, bubbly, pretty, smart, has been in a car crash.

    She was exiting a car park and the woman in front of her braked without warning. The crash was quite nasty. The operation on my friend's legs, damaged in the impact, then went wrong, and she is now in a wheelchair, and has been told there's a reasonable chance she will never walk again.

    From the breezy optimism of a happy young student, to a life in a wheelchair. In a few seconds. And not even her fault. 19 years old.

    Eat, drink and be merry, my pb pals, for life is short, and also cruel.

    A terrible story Sean, and my best sympathies and wishes. Life is indeed short and unpredictable.
    It's clearly early days, but at some point she might want to look at this technology.
    http://www.rexbionics.com/
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Shall we lay off Plato? Her comments might be a bit repetitive, but some of what she says and reposts is interesting and insightful.

    And we all have times when we go a bit monomaniac. We're all nerdy and obsessive in our own way. That's why we're here.

    And besides, there's just 8 more days to go.

    SIX
    Sean can open another two windows on his PB advent calendar.
    I dread to think what might be in a SeanT advent calendar...
    I'd buy one if they ever went on (top shelf) sale.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    A poster named after some Greek
    kept on bringing up wikileaks
    she may not be so pumped
    if the US gets Trumped
    as the future might look pretty bleak
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Alistair said:

    taffys said:

    Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.

    If trump rampers could post something other than lies and cherry picked polls I might listen to them.

    It is the Trump rampers constantly complaining and moaning about not having their latest alt-right conspiracy theory not being taken seriously.
    sounds like Trump himself!
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    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
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    GeoffM said:

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    The Left are very happy for views to be aired .... just as long as they are approved first.
    This is my take on that...
    http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/stop-sneering-start-listening
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MrsB said:

    A poster named after some Greek
    kept on bringing up wikileaks
    she may not be so pumped
    if the US gets Trumped
    as the future might look pretty bleak

    The second line doesn't rhyme with the first and fifth.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    taffys said:

    Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.

    If trump rampers could post something other than lies and cherry picked polls I might listen to them.

    It is the Trump rampers constantly complaining and moaning about not having their latest alt-right conspiracy theory not being taken seriously.
    Weren't Trump rampers accused of not being bettors earlier? How can you be a ramper when you do not bet :p
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    Anyway, got to be off. Don't be grumpy turnips, or your gravy will be lumpy.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Oh my

    Bill Mitchell
    @mitchellvii Trump leads Hillary in Arizona 49 - 44 https://t.co/kY06dHGDk3
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    That sounds positive. Really pleased to hear that Alastair.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    GeoffM said:

    MrsB said:

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    Even Lib Dems can only take so much before we crack. It's very hard having to remember to be nice all the time.
    Genuinely nice people know that being nice comes naturally and isn't an effort.

    LibDems wouldn't have any reason to know that, of course, so you are excused.
    You do realise that you have exposed yourself as not genuinely nice in that post?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    The Left are very happy for views to be aired .... just as long as they are approved first.
    This is my take on that...
    http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/stop-sneering-start-listening
    That's a good article.
    Thanks for sharing it, cheers.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    Are early voters a representative sample?
    Not according to Sean Trende, in the article I cited above.
    That's an excellent article, and well worth a read.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited November 2016
    GeoffM said:

    I have just had a look at some of the Clinton WikiLeaks.

    I have to say it is the biggest overhyped nonsense. Boring....

    Really? Which ones did you look at?
    Randomly selected. They were about HRC seeing if someone was still awake, about meeting up Tonight and so forth. Not very interesting. You can look on WikiLeaks, its the biggest overhyped tripe I have ever seen.

    I still wonder why British people think Trump becoming POTUS would be a good thing. He is running against the whole post war settlement in terms of international trade and the organisations that help facilitate global co-operation. Trump says he would like a trade deal with the UK but on what terms?! Are we going down the optimistic path that Brexit advocates think every country is going to want to have some stupendous deal that will be great for the UK? Not to mention the time it takes to negotiate such a deal.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    Oh my

    Bill Mitchell
    @mitchellvii Trump leads Hillary in Arizona 49 - 44 https://t.co/kY06dHGDk3

    Please, please answer me. Why does this warrant an oh my. Romeny won by 9.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Golly

    Trump 49 vs Hillary 43 Nevada


    @mitchellvii Trump!! https://t.co/eXKA2drXPh
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    North Carolina is back in the Trump camp according to 538:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Anyway, got to be off. Don't be grumpy turnips, or your gravy will be lumpy.

    I don't think grumpy is a word that could ever be applied to you Morris...you must be someone that wakes up with little birdies floating around you...

    The fact that you are a Yorkshire bastard....well that is a miracle...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    taffys said:

    ''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''

    It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.

    Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucial
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    I'm trying You left out that they have to be on stone-baked bread with locally sourced butter and in a bag made of recycled paper.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MrsB said:

    GeoffM said:

    MrsB said:

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    Even Lib Dems can only take so much before we crack. It's very hard having to remember to be nice all the time.
    Genuinely nice people know that being nice comes naturally and isn't an effort.

    LibDems wouldn't have any reason to know that, of course, so you are excused.
    You do realise that you have exposed yourself as not genuinely nice in that post?
    Yes. It was a post-modern ironic type of self-outing.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Oh my

    Bill Mitchell
    @mitchellvii Trump leads Hillary in Arizona 49 - 44 https://t.co/kY06dHGDk3

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrQFBYgwQW8
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    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    The Left are very happy for views to be aired .... just as long as they are approved first.
    This is my take on that...
    http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/stop-sneering-start-listening
    That's a good article.
    Thanks for sharing it, cheers.
    You're most welcome. After years in TV and then politics I haven't written longform material for an age. Launched the blog three weeks ago. Please keep dropping by, I'm planning to post every Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
    And for those of you who've known me as Baskerville for the last 11 years, at last my secret identity is exposed!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127

    Mr. HYUFD, to be fair, most Leavers thought Remain would win. I still did.

    Indeed until the votes are counted we cannot be sure, any election where pollsters differ, as they do at this election, is no dead cert call
  • Options
    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks
  • Options
    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    GeoffM said:

    MrsB said:

    A poster named after some Greek
    kept on bringing up wikileaks
    she may not be so pumped
    if the US gets Trumped
    as the future might look pretty bleak

    The second line doesn't rhyme with the first and fifth.
    Picky. I'm out of practice.
  • Options

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    That's wonderful news Mr Meeks. - Hope every success continues apace.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited November 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    619 said:

    New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

    FL: Clinton 46—Trump 45
    NC: Clinton 47—Trump 44
    OH: Trump 46—Clinton 41
    PA: Clinton 48—Trump 43

    Absolutely dire polls from Trumpton from a respected pollster.

    Early Voting exit poll figures from same surveys. Awful for Trump. Absolutely awful.

    FL
    Clinton 48
    Trump 42

    NC
    Clinton 58
    Trump 36

    OH
    Clinton 58
    Trump 32

    If those figures are anywhere near right, get Clinton 300+ covered before the bookies hear of it.
    Are early voters a representative sample?
    Obama comfortably won early voters in 2012, including in North Carolina by double-digits however Romney won the state
    My biggest problem with the polling is the enormous D+ values - they're 2008 = Hillary isn't black and isn't an orator. She's not a best selling author, doesn't have 70k at rallies nor control of social media.

    It's a total joke to compare the two. I fear too many PBers are being hoodwinked by polls [WTF YET AGAIN] whilst the obvious is right in front of them.

    Still, if they prefer those to their lying eyes - I can't help them.
    Yes and even the pollsters are now saying it will be closer than 2012 and 2008
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    That is great news. Really pleased for you both.

  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    Alistair...the fact that you could go for a trip to Northern Ireland and come back emboldened....that is really saying something.......my very best wishes to you both for the future....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    That's fantastic news, hope he continues to recover apace.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited November 2016

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    MrsB, would've thought a Lib Dem would approve of minority views being aired ;)

    The Left are very happy for views to be aired .... just as long as they are approved first.
    This is my take on that...
    http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/stop-sneering-start-listening
    That's a good article.
    Thanks for sharing it, cheers.
    You're most welcome. After years in TV and then politics I haven't written longform material for an age. Launched the blog three weeks ago. Please keep dropping by, I'm planning to post every Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
    And for those of you who've known me as Baskerville for the last 11 years, at last my secret identity is exposed!
    Blog duly bookmarked!
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bill Mitchell
    Republicans Have Cast 17,000 More Votes than Democrats in Florida - Breitbart https://t.co/XYMt15wDP7 via @BreitbartNews
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    edited November 2016

    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks

    That stupid foreigner rule they have there too....I'd be more than happy with Pope Francis being given a slight extension to his responsibilities....or failing that Angela Merkel....
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MrsB said:

    A poster named after some Greek
    kept on bringing up wikileaks
    she may not be so pumped
    if the US gets Trumped
    as the future might look pretty bleak

    A mad old witch who loved cats,
    Had a belfry chock full of bats,
    She tweeted and posted,
    And Wikileaks hosted,
    While fitting her pussy's tin hats

    (in honour of Halloween of course!)
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''

    It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.

    Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucial
    The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.
  • Options
    Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 52m52 minutes ago
    I believe all of the gaslighting now is to save down-ballot races. The Dem Leadership knows Hillary has already lost.


    Hilarious. Clinton will win.

    Although I'm nervous, I'm sticking to this position. My landslide looks very unlikely though.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    MrsB said:

    GeoffM said:

    MrsB said:

    A poster named after some Greek
    kept on bringing up wikileaks
    she may not be so pumped
    if the US gets Trumped
    as the future might look pretty bleak

    The second line doesn't rhyme with the first and fifth.
    Picky. I'm out of practice.
    There once was a man from Gibraltar
    He voted to leave the EU
    He thought he was winning
    But Spain came a calling
    Como esta GeoffM
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited November 2016

    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks

    There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!

    Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    Great news.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''

    It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.

    Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucial
    The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.
    What about Tory majority :D ?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''

    It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.

    Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucial
    The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.
    Not the final polls though and the majority did not show Leave leads of 4%, Trump could win the popular vote if he leads by 0.1%, the electoral college if he leads by 1%, he does not need a 4% lead. The final Populus poll had a 10% Remain lead, bigger than any of the polls are currently showing for Hillary
  • Options
    It seems to me that where there is a difference of more than 20% between the two parties, i.e. > 60% : 40%, the outcome in just a few days time is more or less a foregone conclusion.
    In fact there are only 3 states out of the 50 which fail this > 20% test, all of which are leaning towards Clinton, these being North Carolina with 15 ECVs, Florida with 29 ECVs and Nevada with 6 ECVs.

    Leaving aside these three States, she has the support of 279 ECVs and therefore appears assured of becoming the next POTUS. Were she to win all three of these three closely contested States, she would collect a further 50 ECVs, taking her total tally to 329 ECVs, which is roughly where we were before Hillary's email bother with the FBI blew up last week.

    Between her minimum score of 279 ECVs and maximum of 329 ECVs, depending on which of these 3 states she were to win or lose, it seems to me that her final result is likely to be as follows:

    Win FL, lose NC and NV ....... 308
    Win FL & NC, lose NV ......... 323
    Win FL & NV, lose NC ......... 314
    Win NC, lose FL & NV ........ 294
    Win NC & NV, lose FL ......... 300
    Win NV, lose FL & NC ......... 285
  • Options
    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 1h1 hour ago
    Battleground state poll question: Who would better handle the economy?
    Hillary loses across the board. (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Penn)


    This is getting very stressful.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    A trip to Narnia does wonders

    best wishes
  • Options
    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    MrsB said:

    A poster named after some Greek
    kept on bringing up wikileaks
    she may not be so pumped
    if the US gets Trumped
    as the future might look pretty bleak

    A mad old witch who loved cats,
    Had a belfry chock full of bats,
    She tweeted and posted,
    And Wikileaks hosted,
    While fitting her pussy's tin hats

    (in honour of Halloween of course!)
    Hats off! Even tinfoil ones!
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Thanks for the reply. IMHO Hillary Clinton is completely unfit to be president, as she would be unfit to work at your company, let alone get a promotion.

    Now Donald Trump is an idiot, and really shouldn't still be in the race. If I were American, I'd want to live in Utah so I could vote for McMullin. Failing that, I'd vote Johnson>Trump>Clinton
    If Hilary were an employee where I work she would be dismissed for breaches of procedures. Maintenance of confidentiality is very important. But that is a long way from saying that someone is a criminal. Let alone saying that someone is unfit to be President.

    LBJ was a pretty corrupt politician. And yet, Vietnam aside, he has some claims to be considered a great President for what he did in relation to civil rights for blacks and his attempt to help the poor, both black and white in the US. And Nixon too had achievements to his name.
    My understanding (I am not a lawyer) is that breaches of confidence when it comes to government classified material are indeed illegal, and that a number of people have been imprisoned for being in possession of such. That Hillary claims she didn't know that "C" markings on a document mean it is classified, is completely disingenuous. Your hypothetical rogue trader wouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt on such points, and we should be holding those who seek public office to the highest standards of probity.

    Oh yes, there have been a number of corrupt and philandering presidents past, but that should not mean that we need to elect another.

    I posted a link a couple of threads back to a funny and nonparstisan take on the idea that this election is somehow unique for the poor quality of the candidates, he goes through a number of the rouges that have gone before.
    Adam Conover - Adam Ruins Everything Election Special.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXwrQTWKffU
    Agreed. I don't know who will win. The choice is poor.

    The fact that so many in the US are willing to vote for/consider Trump is fascinating. There have been some very interesting articles on why this has come about. One US writer who is worth reading on this topic is JD Vance, who has real insight into this topic both because he knows this world and because he has thought about it.

    It's a pity that those who seem to think that they are bringing insights to a liberal consensus don't refer to such material. It would be nice if they realized that we are quite capable of searching out material and reading for ourselves and, indeed, making judgments about what is and is not worth reading.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks

    There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!

    Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
    Or, even, let's go totally mad and have two candidates who are not likely to be investigated by FBI or whatever for fraud, links to Russia, secret email caches, tax evasion etc etc.
  • Options

    It seems to me that where there is a difference of more than 20% between the two parties, i.e. > 60% : 40%, the outcome in just a few days time is more or less a foregone conclusion.
    In fact there are only 3 states out of the 50 which fail this > 20% test, all of which are leaning towards Clinton, these being North Carolina with 15 ECVs, Florida with 29 ECVs and Nevada with 6 ECVs.

    Leaving aside these three States, she has the support of 279 ECVs and therefore appears assured of becoming the next POTUS. Were she to win all three of these three closely contested States, she would collect a further 50 ECVs, taking her total tally to 329 ECVs, which is roughly where we were before Hillary's email bother with the FBI blew up last week.

    Between her minimum score of 279 ECVs and maximum of 329 ECVs, depending on which of these 3 states she were to win or lose, it seems to me that her final result is likely to be as follows:

    Win FL, lose NC and NV ....... 308
    Win FL & NC, lose NV ......... 323
    Win FL & NV, lose NC ......... 314
    Win NC, lose FL & NV ........ 294
    Win NC & NV, lose FL ......... 300
    Win NV, lose FL & NC ......... 285

    You can buy a bit of Clinton<329 ECVs on Betfair exchange 'Clinton2' market at 1.35, I think. Which is more or less the same price for her to be next President. A bit less risky at that price, IMHO.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks

    There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!

    Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
    You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.

    This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.

    Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    The final Populus poll had a 10% Remain lead, bigger than any of the polls are currently showing for Hillary

    Populus are polling in the US ....

    Who knew ..?!?!?

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 1h1 hour ago
    Battleground state poll question: Who would better handle the economy?
    Hillary loses across the board. (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Penn)


    This is getting very stressful.

    If Hillary can JUST lose that'd be great.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited November 2016
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    The final Populus poll had a 10% Remain lead, bigger than any of the polls are currently showing for Hillary

    Populus are polling in the US ....

    Who knew ..?!?!?

    Yougov are with CBS and they had Remain up by 4% in their final polling, Leave won by 4%
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    James Wood
    Goodwin: CNN, Zucker prove nickname 'Clinton News Network' is accurate // They will never recover from this. https://t.co/lzVLhiJN94
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks

    There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!

    Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
    You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.

    This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.

    Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
    I have one word to say to you.....Goldwater.....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks

    There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!

    Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
    Or, even, let's go totally mad and have two candidates who are not likely to be investigated by FBI or whatever for fraud, links to Russia, secret email caches, tax evasion etc etc.
    Whoa there, one step at a time!

    But yes, let's have candidates who can offer a positive vision of the American future, who stand for what they believe in and seek to persuade others. In a country of over 300 million people, that's not too much to ask, is it?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why the hell can't we have obama for another term? 22nd amendment sucks

    There's 300 million Americans thinking very much the same right now!

    Surely there's a way of letting Barry stay on for another year and let's choose some sensible candidates who can debate policy, rather than the proverbial two monkeys flinging poo at each other?
    You know I love you - however, I think this is a fundamental misreading of mood. Trump is a figurehead who doesn't have to suck up to anyone. He's donated $100m to his own campaign.

    This is a popular revolt and if he loses the GOP aren't going to revert to Romney Mk II. They're angry and had a taste of insurrection.

    Anyone who wants to believe defeating Trump is a return to politics as usual is very wide of the mark.
    If Trump loses Cruz will likely be GOP nominee in 2020, though Pence may be a contender too, if Clinton loses it will likely be Warren who the Democrats pick. The anti-establishment mood remains, it would take a Clinton landslide for a centrist to have a chance of the GOP nomination in 2020, that is probably now gone
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    taffys said:

    Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.

    The fuddy duddies hate Queen Plato.
    These posters forget she was PB poster of the year.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    The final Populus poll had a 10% Remain lead, bigger than any of the polls are currently showing for Hillary

    Populus are polling in the US ....

    Who knew ..?!?!?

    Yougov are with CBS and they had Remain up by 4% in their final polling, Leave won by 4%
    Like Huma, you picked a wrong'n. It happens.
  • Options
    If Trump wins on Tuesday, what are the odds on the next British ambassador to Washington being Sir Nigel Farage?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 1h1 hour ago
    Battleground state poll question: Who would better handle the economy?
    Hillary loses across the board. (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Penn)


    This is getting very stressful.

    If Hillary can JUST lose that'd be great.
    Did you watch O'Reilly show I posted earlier? The pro DNC pollster agreed with O'Reilly re key state probability

    Here it is again - for info O'Reilly is the top rated cable show for yonks

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x8RiO43Tsc
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    taffys said:

    Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.

    The fuddy duddies hate Queen Plato.
    These posters forget she was PB poster of the year.
    I'd give it her again....I'd vote for her. The Platomator......

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Pulpstar said:

    MrsB said:

    GeoffM said:

    MrsB said:

    A poster named after some Greek
    kept on bringing up wikileaks
    she may not be so pumped
    if the US gets Trumped
    as the future might look pretty bleak

    The second line doesn't rhyme with the first and fifth.
    Picky. I'm out of practice.
    There once was a man from Gibraltar
    He voted to leave the EU
    He thought he was winning
    But Spain came a calling
    Como esta GeoffM
    the problem for poor mrs hilary
    is she's lacking in heavy artillery
    the donald just laughs
    as her bullets cant pass
    through the mass of his armoured capillary
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    The final Populus poll had a 10% Remain lead, bigger than any of the polls are currently showing for Hillary

    Populus are polling in the US ....

    Who knew ..?!?!?

    Yougov are with CBS and they had Remain up by 4% in their final polling, Leave won by 4%
    And the precise relevance of a US POTUS election and a UK referendum is .... ??
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    Mr. Meeks, hope your other half is continuing to improve.

    MrsB, just think of rocket sandwiches purchased from a fair trade, ethnically diverse, sustainable shop staffed by people from all over the EU :)

    We're just back from a trip by train and boat to Northern Ireland which was a great success. Special assistance is wonderful.

    My other half is now feeling much more confident about what he can do and has widened horizons. He got much stronger physically and mentally in a few days. He's starting to think about the future as something with opportunities rather than just to be endured.
    Good news. Hope it continues. Best of British luck.
    Second that.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed, I also remember Remainers being just as complacent as Clintonites are on here now.''

    It goes back further. Posters who challenged the orthodoxy of a Labour minority government in 2015 were scorned and ridiculed.

    Indeed, they better hope they are third time lucky, it seems some pollsters have still not learnt the lesson that what the majority of polls say is not always right, high white working class turnout on the day for Trump, relatively low African American turnout etc could all be crucial
    The majority of polls in the month before the EU vote said Leave was in the lead, 21 leave leads to 18 remain leads.
    That conceals an enormous methodological fail with one type of polling, while the consensus among 'experts' before the result was that the flawed polling was correct, and the correct polling was flawed.

    The consistent outcome in this country over many elections is the shy-right being under counted.

    I have no idea if that characteristic applies in the US.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    taffys said:

    Honestly the Clintonettes want to turn this place into a safe space for them to talk to each other without interruption or contradiction.

    The fuddy duddies hate Queen Plato.
    These posters forget she was PB poster of the year.
    Surely AndyJS is POTY this year by popular acclimation!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    The final Populus poll had a 10% Remain lead, bigger than any of the polls are currently showing for Hillary

    Populus are polling in the US ....

    Who knew ..?!?!?

    Yougov are with CBS and they had Remain up by 4% in their final polling, Leave won by 4%
    Like Huma, you picked a wrong'n. It happens.
    Yougov presently has Hillary leading Trump by 3.7% ie almost exactly the same margin as they had Remain ahead by
    https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
This discussion has been closed.