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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem
YouGov has produced what I regard as must read analysis by Benjamin Lauderdale of the LSE and Douglas Rivers on what it terms phantom polling swings. Thus on the face of it there has been a move from Clinton to Trump in the aftermath of the FBI announcement. Their argument is that this might not be all it seems
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https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/793803294762266624
Article isn't very interesting but there is a fascinating generational vote chart buried in it.
There's very little manouver on that one.
"The UK economy will grow faster next year than official predictions suggest, a pair of leading industry bodies have predicted.
The Confederation of British Industry and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research expect GDP to grow by 1.3pc and 1.4pc respectively next year, higher than the current Bank of England estimate."
Can’t remember YouGov warning against phantom swings and dramatic bounces during GE2015. In fact I can’t remember them ever mentioning them before. - Most odd.
The question is whether we should assume that both sides become equally motivated in the immediate run up to election day, meaning that final polls can be "trusted". Or, with a lot of nose-holding going on, is that unwarranted?
In England overall that would be very close.
Good afternoon, everyone.
If it was Blair-Labour vs Farage-UKIP, big win for Cherie I think.
Alot of people are just wedded to voting "Labour", take that away and the vote would evaporate.
Here’s the reason. Those who supported Romney in September were more likely than Obama supporters to respond to our follow-up survey after the first debate. The re-contact rate was 80% for Romney supporters and 74% for Obama supporters. That’s why the raw numbers - and the demographically-only adjusted numbers - for the post-debate poll appeared to tilt the whole contest towards Romney.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/peter-kellner/barack-obama-mitt-romney-us-election-_b_2005585.html
The next Veritas video
https://youtu.be/j1L1gNUPbTw
That Hillary wheeled out gangster getaway driver moll Miss Universe to shame Trump for commenting on what beauty queens look like yesterday...
I'm waiting for the DNC to drop a bombshell on Trump - and still nothing. She was in total unhinged rant mode when a single Bill Is A ********* protestor waved a placard.
It was bizarre.
http://nypost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-loses-her-cool-after-heckler-calls-bill-a-rapist/
(Except maybe the police commissioner ones)
I presume it's Sugar because Trump also did The Apprentice but Farage is a much better fit.
So yes, once again, we're back to the shyness issue!
Though really, there isn't a British equivalent - or even really an American equivalent. Donald is sui generis.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
He just needs Colorado & is gaining fast
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
And yes! I defend the EDL to have the right to have a peaceful demonstration. I would defend the right of the UAF to have a peaceful demonstration.
But it is always the UAF - as I posted links yesterday, which try and disrupt the EDL. In case you missed it - I posted a quote from the local police thanking the EDL stewards in maintaining order.
So I suggest you take off your blinkers and break free from your political indoctrination.
It's not as though Trump has made any effort (indeed, quite the reverse) to distance himself from hate groups.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/donald-trump-hate-groups-neo-nazi-white-supremacist-racism
Obama 51.1% Romney 48.9% vs actual 52.0/48.0
EVs predicted 303/235 vs actual 332/306 (Called Florida for Romney)
If you could somehow merge Simon Cowell and David Starkey, that would be the man. Campaign manager: Max Clifford.
The Trump anti Jew bloke was a Hillary activist FFS. They're crap at hiding their real identities. The guy had a massive inner forearm tattoo that gave him away within 5 mins.
The DNC are paying for this bird-dogging. If you're falling for it - more fool you.
Calm down darling and take a camomile.
This Trump last week resurgence is just what the Clinton campaign needed. It helps her that the narrative is now much tighter than it is and Trump is sprinting along the outside like RedRum.
The election was much more in the balance a few weeks when Clinton collapsed like a sack of spuds.
Now it's all going to be about GOTV....and quite frankly the Democrats have a much greater pool to fish from.
"Ни шагу назад!"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_No._227
I know this may seem late in the day but why is Hilary so disliked/hated?
She may be a charisma-free zone and with not that many achievements to her name. But those don't seem like reasons to hate. Is she more untruthful than most politicians?
What is it about her that so many people dislike to the extent that they apparently do?
White nationalists plot Election Day show of force
KKK, neo-Nazis and militias plan to monitor urban polling places and suppress the black vote.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616
Dutch film director Theo van Gogh, whose film "Submission" was critical of the treatment of women in Islam, was assassinated by Mohammed Bouyeri.
Benjamin R. Barber (born August 2, 1939) is an American political theorist, racist and author perhaps best known for his 1995 bestseller, Jihad vs. McWorld and 2013's If Mayors Ruled the World.
In Scott Adams' neighbourhood, a load of shop fronts were defaced with swastikas. In California.
The more they shriek, the less convincing they become - especially after many have seen or heard about the Veritas stuff.
Over 6m views so far
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IuJGHuIkzY
Plus she hasn't helped herself with her conduct on any number of matters, Travelgate, the vast right wing conspiracy, the email server, to name but a few.
One or two you could put down as one of those things, but with so many you can draw inferences about her.
The main thing going for her is that she's not Donald Trump, as evidenced by this poll of British voters
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/793741244891529220
Is she crooked? Who knows, but really, the only the evidence of any 'crooked Hillary' is the futures trades she did 40 years ago and that's despite quite ridiculous sums being spent on investigations.
Will she do anything radical? Probably not.
But her economic policies are generally rational, while Trump's proposal to massively increase spending while reducing taxation and slapping tariffs on everything is clearly deranged.
If you really read that report, I mean really read it, the whole thing is pretty weak.
Planning to hand out booze and weed to get black people wasted so they don;t go to the polls? hidden cameras?
I mean FFS.
The interviews he's given since, his social media profile everything says he's a TRump supporter.
Cherie Blair vs Piers Morgan perhaps!
Serial liar
Only in it for herself
Hypocrite
Two faced
Bully
I think that's enough.
You accumulate a lot of enemies even if you do the right things in all of those jobs.
Those 29 votes are, I gather, playing hell with the spread-betting markets.
Reading the stuff that comes out about Clinton, the word that comes to mind is 'sociopath' .
Zero moral constraints, zero empathy, zero conscience.
I hope your pockets are deep, accusing someone of being corrupt doesn't come pain free.
All the rest is handwaving.
That says more about your political bias than about your concern for the financial well-being of impoverished lawyers.