politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit’s victory was miniscule and a swing of just 1.85% would
Comments
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"Projected" presumably means in accordance with the rules of that state (i.e. WTA with the exception of ME and NE)Dromedary said:
They set "projected" against "(a)ny subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’", which disregards the "Vote Trump to Elect Pence" case. For whom is such an elector "projected" to vote? It could be interpreted either way.ThreeQuidder said:
I can't see how "projected" means anything other than "called by the networks on the night".Dromedary said:Reminder: Betfair's rules for its Next US President market state that
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president
* if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment0 -
These GOP establishment figures are as bad as those on the Labour side, they have lost control of their party to the base's Messiah and they still can't accept it0
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It seems to be getting to the stage where the strength of Hillary Clinton'a mandate will be undermined by the fact the GOP failed to field a credible candidate.
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Twitter polls!HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html
You've gone full, post-truth Trump. It's Andy Burnham 4 Leader all over again.0 -
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
I suspect that Leave would win by a bigger majority if re-run now. Would it in 2 years time? Who knows?chestnut said:
I think we can take it for granted that leavers have little faith in the musings of economic forecasters, something that seems vindicated already.felix said:
No doubt this is why the £ is so stable - now the ROW is expressing it's full confidence in UKPLC ...oh..waitttttttt...chestnut said:
I do wonder how many remainers would really change their mind now that the blizzard of bullshit has subsided (though not cleared) from the most rabid of remain outlets.TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.TonyE said:.........
Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage.
We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
PS Are we now believing the IMF and Lagarde and the other 'experts'. so hard to keep up
It was the Remain contingent who seem to have swallowed it.
"But..but..but the experts, the experts, will nobody listen to the experts?" was an almost constant refrain on here.
I wonder how many of the 16m people who voted Remain would change their mind when presented with a before and after comparison? They would have to be supremely daft to swallow it all again.
At the moment everyone can project their desires onto it. When the cold grey reality of it hits, maybe not.0 -
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.tyson said:
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.HYUFD said:
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UKfelix said:
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.HYUFD said:
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU firstfelix said:
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!TonyE said:
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.Scott_P said:@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.0 -
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
Burnham never won the Labour leadership like Trump won the GOP nominationTheuniondivvie said:
Twitter polls!HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html
You've gone full, post-truth Trump. It's Andy Burnham 4 Leader all over again.0 -
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
I thought people weren't meant to be posting these online Voodoo polls here?0
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I may be wrong here, but I thought that in some "WTA" states, i.e. states which aren't ME or NE, an elector can be "faithless" without violating any state laws, making "WTA" customary rather than laid down in state law.not_on_fire said:
"Projected" presumably means in accordance with the rules of that state (i.e. WTA with the exception of ME and NE)Dromedary said:
They set "projected" against "(a)ny subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’", which disregards the "Vote Trump to Elect Pence" case. For whom is such an elector "projected" to vote? It could be interpreted either way.ThreeQuidder said:
I can't see how "projected" means anything other than "called by the networks on the night".Dromedary said:Reminder: Betfair's rules for its Next US President market state that
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president
* if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/electors.html0 -
'Negative ideology' that is confident the UK can proceed as an independent sovereign nation? Sounds more positive than negative to me. A proactive choice, a step away from the status quo or direction of travel (ever-closer union). 'Negative' was to be a fearful, conservative Remainer.tyson said:
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.HYUFD said:
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UKfelix said:
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.HYUFD said:
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU firstfelix said:
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!TonyE said:
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.Scott_P said:@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
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se it.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the mediaKentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
There are so many posts by those who approve the current way of doing stuff - and yet Brexiteers and Trumpers are winning a lot of ground that they can't fathom.TonyE said:
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.tyson said:
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.HYUFD said:
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UKfelix said:
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.HYUFD said:
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU firstfelix said:
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!TonyE said:
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.Scott_P said:@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
It's a massive disconnect and unless you 'get' the other side - it appears to be incomprehensible.
I feel much more in tune with fly over state residents than metropolitan city dwellers. It's a universe they simply haven't seen or experienced - or sneered at. Like Mrs Duffy.
Tomorrow's debate will be an awful mud throwing fest - who comes out of that an inch above the gutter is anyone's guess.0 -
"The other guy" is also unfit for office...KentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
Perhaps it would be easier to list all the Republican Governors, Congressmen and Senators standing by Trump. It sounds like a much shorter list.Alistair said:se it.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the mediaKentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/rnc-halts-all-victory-project-work-for-trump-229363
RNC halts victory project work for Trump.0 -
They work for the establishment, same thingAlistair said:se it.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the mediaKentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
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Let's be frank, the current way of doing things has been very successful for a small number of people, and marginally successful for a fairly large number. But there's also a large number of people who have been simply left behind. They feel unrepresented, and rightly so. It's about time the political process looked to represent those who haven't gained from the 'globalised' world.PlatoSaid said:
There are so many posts by those who approve the current way of doing stuff - and yet Brexiteers and Trumpers are winning a lot of ground that they can't fathom.TonyE said:
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.tyson said:
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.HYUFD said:
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UKfelix said:
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.HYUFD said:
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU firstfelix said:
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!TonyE said:
Sadly I think it's too late ...e that it might exude.Scott_P said:@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
It's a massive disconnect and unless you 'get' the other side - it appears to be incomprehensible.
I feel much more in tune with fly over state residents than metropolitan city dwellers. It's a universe they simply haven't seen or experienced - or sneered at. Like Mrs Duffy.
Tomorrow's debate will be an awful mud throwing fest - who comes out of that an inch above the gutter is anyone's guess.0 -
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/7848229321198878720 -
Of course if you want to, you're free to pick the polls that are saying what you want to hear and ignore the others.HYUFD said:
Who cares what Nate Silver says, he is wrong half the time anyway. Fox last night had Hillary ahead by just 2% in a 4 way race
But frankly, even if Trump had been only 2% behind before this - rather than 5-6% behind as the averages indicate - then that would have been quite bad enough.0 -
Trump against the world....TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part II
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7848250348209438730 -
Third statement of the obvious - that in theory could be good for Trump. Anything of a sexual nature he will just palm off onto Hillary and Husband.williamglenn said:
Second statement of the obvious: the second debate just got a big ratings boost.foxinsoxuk said:
Statement of the bleeding obvious time:Theuniondivvie said:And there's Schwarzenegger thrown Donald down the well.
Trump's debate preparation is not going well!0 -
Yes, Trump now has carte blanche to run against the whole system.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trump against the world....TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part II
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7848250348209438730 -
Well they called it that, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.FrancisUrquhart said:
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....0 -
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.FrancisUrquhart said:
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....0 -
There is playing the "I'm against the system" card and then there is...williamglenn said:
Yes, Trump now has carte blanche to run against the whole system.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trump against the world....TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part II
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7848250348209438730 -
I thought voodoo polls are banned here or is it just voodoo polls favouring Trump that are verboten?Theuniondivvie said:
Twitter polls!HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html
You've gone full, post-truth Trump. It's Andy Burnham 4 Leader all over again.0 -
Just like CCHQ staff who had the party establishment telling them to work for Remain and secretly worked for LeaveTheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part II
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7848250348209438730 -
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.TonyE said:
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.FrancisUrquhart said:
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....0 -
In 1975 'the British' voted 67/33% for an institution whose end state was widely agreed to be a United States of Europe. Otherwise, as Enoch Powell, Michael Foot, etc all said, why did the 1957 Treaty of Rome feature the words 'Ever Closer Union'? The Yes campaign was positive about the advantages of staying in and received especially strong support in the south and south-east.TonyE said:
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.tyson said:
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.HYUFD said:
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UKfelix said:
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.HYUFD said:
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU firstfelix said:
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!TonyE said:
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.Scott_P said:@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
'Brexit' should be banned from polite conversation. A better use of it was in the recent Private Eye cartoon where a UKIP hotel guest orders: 'Full English Brexit, please'.
The correct word is Leave. The right description of the UK's situation post-23.06.16 is bugger's muddle.0 -
They dont although I've always felt that US politicians (of every colour) should wear badges in the manner of NASCAR drivers. It would help show who they've been bought by.Alistair said:se it.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the mediaKentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
The RNC tried to stop Trump in the primaries and failed, he will still have to win without them, what's new?williamglenn said:http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/rnc-halts-all-victory-project-work-for-trump-229363
RNC halts victory project work for Trump.0 -
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.TonyE said:
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.FrancisUrquhart said:
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....0 -
I voted for the Donald on it.HYUFD said:
It is a Luntz poll and OGH tends to be a fan of him, take it or leave it if you want but it is out there and the first evidence we have of the reaction after the Trump remarksChris said:I thought people weren't meant to be posting these online Voodoo polls here?
0 -
Voodoo polls aren't banned, so long as you flag them up as voodoo polls.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I thought voodoo polls are banned here or is it just voodoo polls favouring Trump that are verboten?Theuniondivvie said:
Twitter polls!HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html
You've gone full, post-truth Trump. It's Andy Burnham 4 Leader all over again.
It is when you try and spin voodoo polls as proper polls is when you'll get Mike smiting you.0 -
The actual story is about stopping mail production. It could mean any of:TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
1) RNC want to spend money elsewhere
2) Serious moves to get rid of Trump
3) *Pence* is about to withdraw0 -
LA Times today has Trump ahead by 3% and as Luntz's poll shows his supporters are sticking by himChris said:
Of course if you want to, you're free to pick the polls that are saying what you want to hear and ignore the others.HYUFD said:
Who cares what Nate Silver says, he is wrong half the time anyway. Fox last night had Hillary ahead by just 2% in a 4 way race
But frankly, even if Trump had been only 2% behind before this - rather than 5-6% behind as the averages indicate - then that would have been quite bad enough.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/0 -
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.HYUFD said:
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
The policy is that if you post the results of a poll with self-selected participants, you should state that's the case:HYUFD said:
It is a Luntz poll and OGH tends to be a fan of him, take it or leave it if you want but it is out there and the first evidence we have of the reaction after the Trump remarksChris said:I thought people weren't meant to be posting these online Voodoo polls here?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/28/trump-winning-the-online-unscientific-polling/0 -
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ccByiRfEHJkTheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/7848229321198878720 -
I picked a hell of a Saturday to ignore politics for the day0
-
Am I the only one who isn't seeing the results of the poll? It just gives me the two options? Unless you are all talking about a different poll?TheScreamingEagles said:
Voodoo polls aren't banned, so long as you flag them up as voodoo polls.
It is when you try and spin voodoo polls as proper polls is when you'll get Mike smiting you.0 -
You need to be logged into twitter to view the resultsRobD said:
Am I the only one who isn't seeing the results of the poll? It just gives me the two options? Unless you are all talking about a different poll?TheScreamingEagles said:
Voodoo polls aren't banned, so long as you flag them up as voodoo polls.
It is when you try and spin voodoo polls as proper polls is when you'll get Mike smiting you.0 -
OT - I've just read the sermon by OGH. I only live a few miles from him but it might as well be another planet.
Theresa May cack handed and she caused Fridays flash crash? wtf?
There are two tribes in this country whos political views are basically incompatible.
The problem the Liberal group have is coming to terms with the fact that the other group is the majority and now flexing its muscles.0 -
Bugger that....TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to be logged into twitter to view the resultsRobD said:
Am I the only one who isn't seeing the results of the poll? It just gives me the two options? Unless you are all talking about a different poll?TheScreamingEagles said:
Voodoo polls aren't banned, so long as you flag them up as voodoo polls.
It is when you try and spin voodoo polls as proper polls is when you'll get Mike smiting you.0 -
Boundary Commission
Share your local knowledge and help shape constituency boundaries for your area
https://t.co/kAmK2dPwcC0 -
I read a piece over the summer which says the voting/electoral processes and laws in the 50 states have become even worse than Florida 2000.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.TonyE said:
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.FrancisUrquhart said:
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....0 -
It's a Carney barney as Jacob Rees-Mogg takes on Bank of England Guv
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list0 -
The Pence withdrawing, or the threat of Pence withdrawing scenario is an interesting one.edmundintokyo said:
The actual story is about stopping mail production. It could mean any of:TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
1) RNC want to spend money elsewhere
2) Serious moves to get rid of Trump
3) *Pence* is about to withdraw
He represents the last card in the GOP's hand.
Trump would presumably replace him with Gingrich - or someone - and then go full batsh*t against *the system*0 -
How about Trump deciding to stand as an Independent and Pence becomes the GOP candidatePong said:
The Pence withdrawing, or the threat of Pence withdrawing scenario is an interesting one.edmundintokyo said:
The actual story is about stopping mail production. It could mean any of:TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
1) RNC want to spend money elsewhere
2) Serious moves to get rid of Trump
3) *Pence* is about to withdraw
He represents the last card in the GOP's hand.
Trump would presumably replace him with Gingrich - or someone - and then go full batsh*t against *the system*0 -
The thing is, that video sounds like a fairly average script for Men Behaving Badly. The reaction to it is not just getting on the outrage bus or the outrage ocean liner, it is boarding the outrage space shuttle. Trump obv deserves what he gets, but what he is getting here is a heavily choreographed stitch up.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.TonyE said:
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.FrancisUrquhart said:
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
Thought experiment: what would happen if it turned out a close associate of Trump had cigarised an impressionable young female employee at his place of work twenty years back, and Trump had been OK with that?0 -
Shame no-one had a 10 year old video of Brexit.0
-
-
I think Ed Balls has the pimp slot on this week's Strictly.0
-
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Aussies sounding bullish about an FTA:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/08/free-trade-means-free-trade-to-borrow-a-phrase-australia-pitches/0 -
Sounds ilike (in the words of the Apprentice USA) : "You're Fired!"TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.0 -
Meaning they're saying 'vote Republican' instead of 'vote Trump'? Not much of a story.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Is this the game where we cry WEINNNNERRRR ?Ishmael_X said:
The thing is, that video sounds like a fairly average script for Men Behaving Badly. The reaction to it is not just getting on the outrage bus or the outrage ocean liner, it is boarding the outrage space shuttle. Trump obv deserves what he gets, but what he is getting here is a heavily choreographed stitch up.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.TonyE said:
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.FrancisUrquhart said:
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.TheScreamingEagles said:Game over for Trump, Part I
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
Thought experiment: what would happen if it turned out a close associate of Trump had cigarised an impressionable young female employee at his place of work twenty years back, and Trump had been OK with that?0 -
Trump IS the establishment. He benefitted from a $1billion write off.HYUFD said:
They work for the establishment, same thingAlistair said:se it.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the mediaKentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
Thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.0 -
-
JRM is basically correct about Carney.bigjohnowls said:It's a Carney barney as Jacob Rees-Mogg takes on Bank of England Guv
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list
The guy was woefully inaccurate about employment and unemployment in 2013/2014, he signalled rate rises that never materialised in 2014/2015 and then he pushed an unnecessary rate cut after the referendum vote.
Interest rates and inflation need to normalise. Emergency measures have morphed into a norm and stayed in place long after they should have ceased. Carney is one of the culprits.0 -
The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.0
-
-
Nate has Hillary winning:
Nevada,
Florida,
North Carolina,
Ohio,
Iowa
and even Arizona (NowCast only)
Also the Electoral College 330 to 208, 2 more and she equals Obama 2012.0 -
John Prescott Defeating the Blackshirts.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/must-fight-theresa-tories-fought-9007316#ICID=sharebar_twitter0 -
Or like Trump dumps his new wife when he succeeds in seducing a married woman :-)TheScreamingEagles said:The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.
0 -
“The fact remains that he can only be replaced if he quits or dies. And he’s declared today he’s not planning on doing either.”TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Also he didn't have much of a ground game to begin with.Ishmael_X said:
Thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-clinton-field-offices/0 -
0
-
Rejoice! Rejoice!ThreeQuidder said:Aussies sounding bullish about an FTA:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/08/free-trade-means-free-trade-to-borrow-a-phrase-australia-pitches/
Oh hang on we've just told 500 million consumers on our doorstep to sod off and Brexiteers are wetting their pants in excitement at 20 million consumers 15000 km away.0 -
"Mosley's Blackshirts in 1980s"?dr_spyn said:John Prescott Defeating the Blackshirts.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/must-fight-theresa-tories-fought-9007316#ICID=sharebar_twitter0 -
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
0 -
No, we haven't.Chris_A said:
Rejoice! Rejoice!ThreeQuidder said:Aussies sounding bullish about an FTA:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/08/free-trade-means-free-trade-to-borrow-a-phrase-australia-pitches/
Oh hang on we've just told 500 million consumers on our doorstep to sod off0 -
But they may be limiting "vote Republican" to Congressional races. A fair few candidates have been saying they won't be voting for Trump because he'd so toxic.williamglenn said:
Meaning they're saying 'vote Republican' instead of 'vote Trump'? Not much of a story.0 -
Not some little woman standing by her man like Tammy Wynette.619 said:melanie trump condemns Trump!
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/7848306859869593620 -
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.Ishmael_X said:
Thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.0 -
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.0 -
He is the nominee, he ain't resigning, his supporters still back him and unless he does resign the RNC will be as useless as the Labour establishment was at removing CorbynSpeedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.0 -
First rule of politics: never believe anything until it's officially denied. This looks like an official denial from Trump.logical_song said:
“The fact remains that he can only be replaced if he quits or dies. And he’s declared today he’s not planning on doing either.”TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's time to look at the small print on the betting markets regarding the position of a Trump replacement.TheScreamingEagles said:The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.
0 -
Indeed. That is pretty much traditional with Labour these days - I think it happened with Blair in 05, Gord in 10 and Milidweeb last year.TheScreamingEagles said:
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.Ishmael_X said:
Thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.0 -
I bow to your greater experience but functionally when one has a pound (fx dollar) Alan Sugar running the obnoxious shit factor is always with us.TheScreamingEagles said:The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.
0 -
The other clusterfuck about Trump not being the candidate/trying to remove him....
Early voting has already begun in some states.0 -
His voters see him as someone who has made his own money standing up for them against an establishment which has screwed them for yearsnunu said:
Trump IS the establishment. He benefitted from a $1billion write off.HYUFD said:
They work for the establishment, same thingAlistair said:se it.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the mediaKentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
No shirtsThreeQuidder said:
"Mosley's Blackshirts in 1980s"?dr_spyn said:John Prescott Defeating the Blackshirts.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/must-fight-theresa-tories-fought-9007316#ICID=sharebar_twitter
http://s126.photobucket.com/user/aidanski/media/MaxMosleyandNazis-999.jpg.html0 -
But much more damaging in the context of a separate presidential election.TheScreamingEagles said:
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.Ishmael_X said:
Thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.0 -
A blast from the blast. I see Alexander Downer is to be the man in charge. Will that be a blessing or a curse?ThreeQuidder said:Aussies sounding bullish about an FTA:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/08/free-trade-means-free-trade-to-borrow-a-phrase-australia-pitches/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdAoQvqh7eY0 -
OK unless there are any major surprises to come - and I suppose there could be.
What about the Senate:
"Democrats currently have a 57 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to our polls-plus forecast and a 56 percent chance in polls-only. Those numbers have been fairly consistent since the conventions. In our polls-plus forecast, for instance, Democratic chances have never dropped below 52 percent and have never risen above 73 percent.1
To control the Senate, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats (they hold 46 seats now) if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or five seats if Donald Trump wins. Right now, they have at least a 75 percent chance of winning currently Republican seats in Illinois and Wisconsin. The bigger question is whether they can win any three of the following seven seats: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania."
5380 -
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow himmatt said:
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.HYUFD said:
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
You do talk some drivel Tyson.tyson said:
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.HYUFD said:
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UKfelix said:
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.HYUFD said:
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU firstfelix said:
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!TonyE said:
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.Scott_P said:@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
"Brexit" had the far more positive message.
What are these facts and evidence that are being denied?
Things must look very different from Italy
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