Reminder: Betfair's rules for its Next US President market state that
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president * if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment
I can't see how "projected" means anything other than "called by the networks on the night".
They set "projected" against "(a)ny subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’", which disregards the "Vote Trump to Elect Pence" case. For whom is such an elector "projected" to vote? It could be interpreted either way.
"Projected" presumably means in accordance with the rules of that state (i.e. WTA with the exception of ME and NE)
These GOP establishment figures are as bad as those on the Labour side, they have lost control of their party to the base's Messiah and they still can't accept it
It seems to be getting to the stage where the strength of Hillary Clinton'a mandate will be undermined by the fact the GOP failed to field a credible candidate.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
I do wonder how many remainers would really change their mind now that the blizzard of bullshit has subsided (though not cleared) from the most rabid of remain outlets.
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
No doubt this is why the £ is so stable - now the ROW is expressing it's full confidence in UKPLC ...oh..waitttttttt...
PS Are we now believing the IMF and Lagarde and the other 'experts'. so hard to keep up
I think we can take it for granted that leavers have little faith in the musings of economic forecasters, something that seems vindicated already.
It was the Remain contingent who seem to have swallowed it.
"But..but..but the experts, the experts, will nobody listen to the experts?" was an almost constant refrain on here.
I wonder how many of the 16m people who voted Remain would change their mind when presented with a before and after comparison? They would have to be supremely daft to swallow it all again.
I suspect that Leave would win by a bigger majority if re-run now. Would it in 2 years time? Who knows?
At the moment everyone can project their desires onto it. When the cold grey reality of it hits, maybe not.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
Reminder: Betfair's rules for its Next US President market state that
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president * if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment
I can't see how "projected" means anything other than "called by the networks on the night".
They set "projected" against "(a)ny subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’", which disregards the "Vote Trump to Elect Pence" case. For whom is such an elector "projected" to vote? It could be interpreted either way.
"Projected" presumably means in accordance with the rules of that state (i.e. WTA with the exception of ME and NE)
I may be wrong here, but I thought that in some "WTA" states, i.e. states which aren't ME or NE, an elector can be "faithless" without violating any state laws, making "WTA" customary rather than laid down in state law.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.
'Negative ideology' that is confident the UK can proceed as an independent sovereign nation? Sounds more positive than negative to me. A proactive choice, a step away from the status quo or direction of travel (ever-closer union). 'Negative' was to be a fearful, conservative Remainer.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the media
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
There are so many posts by those who approve the current way of doing stuff - and yet Brexiteers and Trumpers are winning a lot of ground that they can't fathom.
It's a massive disconnect and unless you 'get' the other side - it appears to be incomprehensible.
I feel much more in tune with fly over state residents than metropolitan city dwellers. It's a universe they simply haven't seen or experienced - or sneered at. Like Mrs Duffy.
Tomorrow's debate will be an awful mud throwing fest - who comes out of that an inch above the gutter is anyone's guess.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the media
Perhaps it would be easier to list all the Republican Governors, Congressmen and Senators standing by Trump. It sounds like a much shorter list.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the media
I thought people weren't meant to be posting these online Voodoo polls here?
It is a Luntz poll and OGH tends to be a fan of him, take it or leave it if you want but it is out there and the first evidence we have of the reaction after the Trump remarks
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late ...e that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
There are so many posts by those who approve the current way of doing stuff - and yet Brexiteers and Trumpers are winning a lot of ground that they can't fathom.
It's a massive disconnect and unless you 'get' the other side - it appears to be incomprehensible.
I feel much more in tune with fly over state residents than metropolitan city dwellers. It's a universe they simply haven't seen or experienced - or sneered at. Like Mrs Duffy.
Tomorrow's debate will be an awful mud throwing fest - who comes out of that an inch above the gutter is anyone's guess.
Let's be frank, the current way of doing things has been very successful for a small number of people, and marginally successful for a fairly large number. But there's also a large number of people who have been simply left behind. They feel unrepresented, and rightly so. It's about time the political process looked to represent those who haven't gained from the 'globalised' world.
Who cares what Nate Silver says, he is wrong half the time anyway. Fox last night had Hillary ahead by just 2% in a 4 way race
Of course if you want to, you're free to pick the polls that are saying what you want to hear and ignore the others.
But frankly, even if Trump had been only 2% behind before this - rather than 5-6% behind as the averages indicate - then that would have been quite bad enough.
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.
Well they called it that, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.
And this is why Remain lost. It just didn't see the positivity in the message that much of the leave campaign had. Democratic government, by the elected was the point - a positive. Countered with a negative - you can't survive without us. Despite every advantage possible, remain lost.
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
In 1975 'the British' voted 67/33% for an institution whose end state was widely agreed to be a United States of Europe. Otherwise, as Enoch Powell, Michael Foot, etc all said, why did the 1957 Treaty of Rome feature the words 'Ever Closer Union'? The Yes campaign was positive about the advantages of staying in and received especially strong support in the south and south-east.
'Brexit' should be banned from polite conversation. A better use of it was in the recent Private Eye cartoon where a UKIP hotel guest orders: 'Full English Brexit, please'.
The correct word is Leave. The right description of the UK's situation post-23.06.16 is bugger's muddle.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the media
They dont although I've always felt that US politicians (of every colour) should wear badges in the manner of NASCAR drivers. It would help show who they've been bought by.
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.
I thought people weren't meant to be posting these online Voodoo polls here?
It is a Luntz poll and OGH tends to be a fan of him, take it or leave it if you want but it is out there and the first evidence we have of the reaction after the Trump remarks
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
The actual story is about stopping mail production. It could mean any of: 1) RNC want to spend money elsewhere 2) Serious moves to get rid of Trump 3) *Pence* is about to withdraw
Who cares what Nate Silver says, he is wrong half the time anyway. Fox last night had Hillary ahead by just 2% in a 4 way race
Of course if you want to, you're free to pick the polls that are saying what you want to hear and ignore the others.
But frankly, even if Trump had been only 2% behind before this - rather than 5-6% behind as the averages indicate - then that would have been quite bad enough.
LA Times today has Trump ahead by 3% and as Luntz's poll shows his supporters are sticking by him http://www.latimes.com/politics/
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
I thought people weren't meant to be posting these online Voodoo polls here?
It is a Luntz poll and OGH tends to be a fan of him, take it or leave it if you want but it is out there and the first evidence we have of the reaction after the Trump remarks
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.
I read a piece over the summer which says the voting/electoral processes and laws in the 50 states have become even worse than Florida 2000.
The actual story is about stopping mail production. It could mean any of: 1) RNC want to spend money elsewhere 2) Serious moves to get rid of Trump 3) *Pence* is about to withdraw
The Pence withdrawing, or the threat of Pence withdrawing scenario is an interesting one.
He represents the last card in the GOP's hand.
Trump would presumably replace him with Gingrich - or someone - and then go full batsh*t against *the system*
The actual story is about stopping mail production. It could mean any of: 1) RNC want to spend money elsewhere 2) Serious moves to get rid of Trump 3) *Pence* is about to withdraw
The Pence withdrawing, or the threat of Pence withdrawing scenario is an interesting one.
He represents the last card in the GOP's hand.
Trump would presumably replace him with Gingrich - or someone - and then go full batsh*t against *the system*
How about Trump deciding to stand as an Independent and Pence becomes the GOP candidate
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.
The thing is, that video sounds like a fairly average script for Men Behaving Badly. The reaction to it is not just getting on the outrage bus or the outrage ocean liner, it is boarding the outrage space shuttle. Trump obv deserves what he gets, but what he is getting here is a heavily choreographed stitch up.
Thought experiment: what would happen if it turned out a close associate of Trump had cigarised an impressionable young female employee at his place of work twenty years back, and Trump had been OK with that?
The fact that they even had a programme and started it is a revelation to me.
Well they called it, it is the UK equivalent of the Tories or Labour, cancelling all their mailshots, PPBs, emails, and adverts with less than a month to go.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
What is the process here - would Trump have to stand down or is there a method by which the candidate can be ejected by the RNC?
It is messy, he needs to stand down, he cannot be ejected, but the 50 odd states and territories have their own different electoral laws, so he might still be on the ballot even if he quits.
What a f##king Omnishambles...as a certain Mr M. Tucker would say.
The thing is, that video sounds like a fairly average script for Men Behaving Badly. The reaction to it is not just getting on the outrage bus or the outrage ocean liner, it is boarding the outrage space shuttle. Trump obv deserves what he gets, but what he is getting here is a heavily choreographed stitch up.
Thought experiment: what would happen if it turned out a close associate of Trump had cigarised an impressionable young female employee at his place of work twenty years back, and Trump had been OK with that?
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the media
They work for the establishment, same thing
Trump IS the establishment. He benefitted from a $1billion write off.
It's a Carney barney as Jacob Rees-Mogg takes on Bank of England Guv
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list
JRM is basically correct about Carney.
The guy was woefully inaccurate about employment and unemployment in 2013/2014, he signalled rate rises that never materialised in 2014/2015 and then he pushed an unnecessary rate cut after the referendum vote.
Interest rates and inflation need to normalise. Emergency measures have morphed into a norm and stayed in place long after they should have ceased. Carney is one of the culprits.
Oh hang on we've just told 500 million consumers on our doorstep to sod off and Brexiteers are wetting their pants in excitement at 20 million consumers 15000 km away.
Meaning they're saying 'vote Republican' instead of 'vote Trump'? Not much of a story.
But they may be limiting "vote Republican" to Congressional races. A fair few candidates have been saying they won't be voting for Trump because he'd so toxic.
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.
Thank you.
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this. RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
He is the nominee, he ain't resigning, his supporters still back him and unless he does resign the RNC will be as useless as the Labour establishment was at removing Corbyn
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.
Thank you.
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.
Indeed. That is pretty much traditional with Labour these days - I think it happened with Blair in 05, Gord in 10 and Milidweeb last year.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the media
They work for the establishment, same thing
Trump IS the establishment. He benefitted from a $1billion write off.
His voters see him as someone who has made his own money standing up for them against an establishment which has screwed them for years
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.
Thank you.
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.
But much more damaging in the context of a separate presidential election.
OK unless there are any major surprises to come - and I suppose there could be. What about the Senate:
"Democrats currently have a 57 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to our polls-plus forecast and a 56 percent chance in polls-only. Those numbers have been fairly consistent since the conventions. In our polls-plus forecast, for instance, Democratic chances have never dropped below 52 percent and have never risen above 73 percent.1 To control the Senate, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats (they hold 46 seats now) if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or five seats if Donald Trump wins. Right now, they have at least a 75 percent chance of winning currently Republican seats in Illinois and Wisconsin. The bigger question is whether they can win any three of the following seven seats: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania." 538
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.
You do talk some drivel Tyson.
"Brexit" had the far more positive message.
What are these facts and evidence that are being denied?
Comments
You've gone full, post-truth Trump. It's Andy Burnham 4 Leader all over again.
At the moment everyone can project their desires onto it. When the cold grey reality of it hits, maybe not.
It doesn't defy evidence, it defies your negative view of what Britain, and the British are.
More media bollocks.
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/electors.html
It's a massive disconnect and unless you 'get' the other side - it appears to be incomprehensible.
I feel much more in tune with fly over state residents than metropolitan city dwellers. It's a universe they simply haven't seen or experienced - or sneered at. Like Mrs Duffy.
Tomorrow's debate will be an awful mud throwing fest - who comes out of that an inch above the gutter is anyone's guess.
RNC halts victory project work for Trump.
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/784825034820943873
But frankly, even if Trump had been only 2% behind before this - rather than 5-6% behind as the averages indicate - then that would have been quite bad enough.
It is almost like they are prepping for a new candidate....
'Brexit' should be banned from polite conversation. A better use of it was in the recent Private Eye cartoon where a UKIP hotel guest orders: 'Full English Brexit, please'.
The correct word is Leave. The right description of the UK's situation post-23.06.16 is bugger's muddle.
It is when you try and spin voodoo polls as proper polls is when you'll get Mike smiting you.
1) RNC want to spend money elsewhere
2) Serious moves to get rid of Trump
3) *Pence* is about to withdraw
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/28/trump-winning-the-online-unscientific-polling/
Theresa May cack handed and she caused Fridays flash crash? wtf?
There are two tribes in this country whos political views are basically incompatible.
The problem the Liberal group have is coming to terms with the fact that the other group is the majority and now flexing its muscles.
Share your local knowledge and help shape constituency boundaries for your area
https://t.co/kAmK2dPwcC
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list
He represents the last card in the GOP's hand.
Trump would presumably replace him with Gingrich - or someone - and then go full batsh*t against *the system*
Thought experiment: what would happen if it turned out a close associate of Trump had cigarised an impressionable young female employee at his place of work twenty years back, and Trump had been OK with that?
https://twitter.com/MaryAnnAhernNBC/status/784828536880115712
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/08/free-trade-means-free-trade-to-borrow-a-phrase-australia-pitches/
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.
The guy was woefully inaccurate about employment and unemployment in 2013/2014, he signalled rate rises that never materialised in 2014/2015 and then he pushed an unnecessary rate cut after the referendum vote.
Interest rates and inflation need to normalise. Emergency measures have morphed into a norm and stayed in place long after they should have ceased. Carney is one of the culprits.
Nevada,
Florida,
North Carolina,
Ohio,
Iowa
and even Arizona (NowCast only)
Also the Electoral College 330 to 208, 2 more and she equals Obama 2012.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/must-fight-theresa-tories-fought-9007316#ICID=sharebar_twitter
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-clinton-field-offices/
The answer is not more Europe.
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/784830685986959362
Oh hang on we've just told 500 million consumers on our doorstep to sod off and Brexiteers are wetting their pants in excitement at 20 million consumers 15000 km away.
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
Early voting has already begun in some states.
http://s126.photobucket.com/user/aidanski/media/MaxMosleyandNazis-999.jpg.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdAoQvqh7eY
What about the Senate:
"Democrats currently have a 57 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to our polls-plus forecast and a 56 percent chance in polls-only. Those numbers have been fairly consistent since the conventions. In our polls-plus forecast, for instance, Democratic chances have never dropped below 52 percent and have never risen above 73 percent.1
To control the Senate, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats (they hold 46 seats now) if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or five seats if Donald Trump wins. Right now, they have at least a 75 percent chance of winning currently Republican seats in Illinois and Wisconsin. The bigger question is whether they can win any three of the following seven seats: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania."
538
"Brexit" had the far more positive message.
What are these facts and evidence that are being denied?
Things must look very different from Italy