politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
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You aren't up with the times...it is...GIN1138 said:Blimey the whole world is going crazy this Summer!
Nevermind, Keep Calm And Brexit On.
Keep Calm and Pokeman GOOOOOOOOO0 -
To be fair, a military coup in Turkey when an Islamist government tightens its grip on control is not that hard to anticipate.Charles said:
I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in TurkeyYellowSubmarine said:
A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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That would seem fairly likely. Erdogan has been accusing Gulen of running a 'shadow state' (whatever that is) for a long time. He's also been trying to repair relations with Russia recently, possibly because he knew his card was marked with the US and was trying not to be totally friendless?MarcKlein said:Rumours it's US inspired with the help of this guy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen
Couldn't have happened to a nicer fellow.0 -
Its rumoured to be both military and paramilitary police forces. If its airforce, army and navy genuinely unified and onboard, good luck trying to stop it.
Only reports, however, are in Ankara, clearly important but by no means could that work alone and claim success.
Update, apparently the armed forces chief of staff has been detained by troops involved in the coup.
Internet access has been restricted, question is by whom but if you want to avoid mobilising the public, its good to cut down public forums.
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The most important news of today, if not this week, I might write an AV thread for Sunday.0
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Do you know what happened to the previous set(s) of generals?eek said:
You have to remember that Erdogan has purged the senior generals at least once (I think its twice but don't my googlefu is failing me) to replace them with ones loyal to him.. As such the senior generals are not that supportedSpeedy said:https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754053690479276032
May be an officers coup.
But it's very successful so far.0 -
US A10 Warthogs exercising over Yorkshire Dales this morning, makes sense now...0
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You have no death star, how will you keep them in line without one?TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall abolish parliament and appoint regional governors who will have direct control over their territoriesRobD said:
Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracyTheScreamingEagles said:
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:0 -
They would want her (the fools). She would start an argument with herself if left alone in a room.kle4 said:
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More than that. The Erdogan place-generals are possibly more important for the coup to control than Erdogan himself.eek said:
You have to remember that Erdogan has purged the senior generals at least once (I think its twice but don't my googlefu is failing me) to replace them with ones loyal to him.. As such the senior generals are not that supportedSpeedy said:https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754053690479276032
May be an officers coup.
But it's very successful so far.
Is it wrong to ask if there is a market up on whether the coup succeeds?0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
The most important news of today, if not this week, I might write an AV thread for Sunday.
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I'm working over in Preston during the week at the moment. It's awfully impressive...Rexel56 said:0 -
Have you seen his shoes?MaxPB said:
You have no death star, how will you keep them in line without one?TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall abolish parliament and appoint regional governors who will have direct control over their territoriesRobD said:
Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracyTheScreamingEagles said:
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:0 -
The reason it was so effective is that Turkish accession is in hand. The UK officially supports accession, and the EU just recently began another round of talks.kle4 said:
That is true, although false impressions created about how soon Turkey might join - usually based of diplomatic pronouncements that of course were optimistic - was one of the bolder untruths of the Leave campaign. The immigration angle was strong enough regardless, I don't know why they even bothered.Charles said:
I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in TurkeyYellowSubmarine said:
A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
The fact that every man + dog knows they haven't got a hope in hell of actually joining doesn't necessarily carry as much weight as we might think. It's Euro fudge caught in the act and to its detriment.
I was furious with Vote Leave for using it, far more than Farage's daft poster.
*edit* Why did they bother? Muslims, mate, millions of 'em. Pure, ugly dog whistling.0 -
This site is so much better for Breaking News than the actual news.0
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My contact in Germany tells me this is all to do with Deep State (?), who have apparently backed this coup.0
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Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?
Thinking out loud.0 -
It's always the colonels.0
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It really is the place to be for national/international events.Philip_Thompson said:This site is so much better for Breaking News than the actual news.
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He just told us - the threat of AV threads unleashed on the population.MaxPB said:
You have no death star, how will you keep them in line without one?TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall abolish parliament and appoint regional governors who will have direct control over their territoriesRobD said:
Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracyTheScreamingEagles said:
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:
On reflection, that might turn me from resistance into supporter.0 -
Newton Emerson @NewtonEmerson
Looks like Boris no longer needs to worry about calling Erdogan a "goat wankerer".0 -
No joke, a by-election in my area yesterday, declared 1 mile from where I sit, and I still read the result here before I was texted by someone who had been at the count.Philip_Thompson said:This site is so much better for Breaking News than the actual news.
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It's funny, after the last three weeks, I figured maybe tonight I could kick back, enjoy a few beers, play some Total War and just relax.
Damn stupid world. Stop happening already and let people chillax.0 -
I agree, but a coup by radical islamists is very much the last thing the americans would want.MarcKlein said:Rumours it's US-inspired with the help of this guy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen
Though Obama did support the muslim brotherhood in Egypt.0 -
Looking forward to cordial relations with the new Junta.TCPoliticalBetting said:Newton Emerson @NewtonEmerson
Looks like Boris no longer needs to worry about calling Erdogan a "goat wankerer".0 -
Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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This is actually one of those times that Brexit may have triggered it. Without the UK there is no ally within the EU to push for pro-Turkey policies. The military may have moved to remove Erdogan given his moves away from secularism.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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Boris is probably the Government's leading authority on Turkey. May's prescience shows no limits!TCPoliticalBetting said:Newton Emerson @NewtonEmerson
Looks like Boris no longer needs to worry about calling Erdogan a "goat wankerer".0 -
Court or resignation to avoid court...wasd said:
Do you know what happened to the previous set(s) of generals?eek said:
You have to remember that Erdogan has purged the senior generals at least once (I think its twice but don't my googlefu is failing me) to replace them with ones loyal to him.. As such the senior generals are not that supportedSpeedy said:https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754053690479276032
May be an officers coup.
But it's very successful so far.
https://www.rt.com/news/erdogan-turkish-army-beheaded-799/
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I have seen one pair.RobD said:
Have you seen his shoes?MaxPB said:
You have no death star, how will you keep them in line without one?TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall abolish parliament and appoint regional governors who will have direct control over their territoriesRobD said:
Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracyTheScreamingEagles said:
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:
"How can you say that I'm too old,
when the angels have stolen my red shoes."
E. Costello
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The Turkish military are not radical Islamists.Speedy said:
I agree, but a coup by radical islamists is very much the last thing the americans would want.MarcKlein said:Rumours it's US-inspired with the help of this guy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen
Though Obama did support the muslim brotherhood in Egypt.
They are secularists and their coup is to stop Erdogan (who is an Islamist) taking Turkey away from its secular foundations under Ataturk.0 -
Hah! Quite...alex. said:
Boris is probably the Government's leading authority on Turkey. May's prescience shows no limits!TCPoliticalBetting said:Newton Emerson @NewtonEmerson
Looks like Boris no longer needs to worry about calling Erdogan a "goat wankerer".0 -
I think Chris Mullin has already dealt with that question in 'A Very British Coup'.Pulpstar said:Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?
Thinking out loud.0 -
Yes, the House of Lords recommended in 2012 a public-funded universal fibre to the home network ASAP to benefit UK PLC (I forget if they meant renationalising Openreach or doing it some other way). Little has happened outside cities. I get the same speed as in 2005, about 6 Mb and many people get less.Rexel56 said:Having had to spend the last two years building our own rural broadband network, fibre-to-the-home, delighted that Ed Vaizey has paid the price for BDUK fiasco...
Rural businesses including farmers are forced to use online government forms, like VAT, but sometimes can't get broadband speeds, only dial up.0 -
You are talking nonsense and at least in Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon there are two people who will have an adult conversation - and before you rant again I am married to a Highlander who is proud to be a Scot and British and rejects the SNPLowlander said:
Oh, has May contested Nicola's statement about her capitulation?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Absolute rubbish - she and Nicola were acting as grown ups unlike yourselfLowlander said:
May was summoned, she did not do the summoning. The balance of power has been fairly clear for quite some time.Jobabob said:
It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit
May capitulated to Nicola today.
May has not. So we know which way the wind blew. May capitulated, although it still won't be enough to stop the UK being dissolved.
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That's why it's the number one politics website.Philip_Thompson said:This site is so much better for Breaking News than the actual news.
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Horrible and chaotic though such events can be, I have a strange interest in seeing how the headlines change, from subtle to extreme. A few minutes ago the BBC main page had a story about Turkey PM decrying 'illegal action' or something along those lines, now it's army group 'takes control of turkey'.0
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I'd hope not, but then this theory was all the ragePulpstar said:Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?
Thinking out loud.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Wilson_conspiracy_theories#Alleged_1974_military_coup_plot0 -
I blame Farage.0
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Since he would presumably have had to win a democratic election somehow to become one, I don't see how - he wouldn't have hidden his plans, so what could he propose that would spark the British into a coup?Pulpstar said:Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?
Thinking out loud.0 -
Am watching Sky, tuned in to BBC a few times in the last minutes. First time they were covering Nice, now the Weather. Why isn't this all over their coverage?0
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A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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Can the world just stop now? It's not big and it's not clever.Lowlander said:It's funny, after the last three weeks, I figured maybe tonight I could kick back, enjoy a few beers, play some Total War and just relax.
Damn stupid world. Stop happening already and let people chillax.
I just sat down to watch a film FFS.0 -
Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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Why the apostrophe?Tykejohnno said:That's all Europe needs,more refugee's,this looks like a civil war.
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We need to stop getting involved in Islamic countries internal politics, will we never learn?Luckyguy1983 said:
That would seem fairly likely. Erdogan has been accusing Gulen of running a 'shadow state' (whatever that is) for a long time. He's also been trying to repair relations with Russia recently, possibly because he knew his card was marked with the US and was trying not to be totally friendless?MarcKlein said:Rumours it's US inspired with the help of this guy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen
Couldn't have happened to a nicer fellow.0 -
John Kerry looks like his own muppet.0
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In the short term, yes, but this may make accession more likely in the long term, given the path taken by Erdogan.rottenborough said:
Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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BBC News channel
"coming up at 1pm is the 1 o clock news"
WTF is going on at the BBC?0 -
Only in abstract, in a '15 years rather than 20 way' surely? A coup would be the Turkish military saying its people cannot be trusted, again, not to vote for a dangerous islamist. If the military regime was in place for awhile, how many 'free' elections returning good secularists would assure the EU everything would not kick up all over again with a new Erdogan?MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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They are literally a Deep State.Thrak said:
Seems to be a conspiracy theory organisation......like the lizards.rcs1000 said:My contact in Germany tells me this is all to do with Deep State (?), who have apparently backed this coup.
It's the military, secret services, oligarchs.
They are like the villains from X-Files, but real and not UFO related.0 -
But it didn't so suck it up. If this coup succeeds then that probably moves them a step closer.rottenborough said:
Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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Everything is at boiling point. Even when I sit down to watch the Tour de France (which is my equivalent to wasting a day watching cricket), there's bouncy castles falling on riders and crowds forcing riders to run up mountains.Thrak said:
Can the world just stop now? It's not big and it's not clever.Lowlander said:It's funny, after the last three weeks, I figured maybe tonight I could kick back, enjoy a few beers, play some Total War and just relax.
Damn stupid world. Stop happening already and let people chillax.
I just sat down to watch a film FFS.
The whole world has gone insane.0 -
WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?0
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That shows how very little you understand about Turkish Politics...rottenborough said:
Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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Again, a coup that removes the Islamist president and leadership moves Turkey one step closer to EU membership in reality, though in the very near term the EU will condemn it but once the AKP are outlawed and the constitution is reset it makes Turkey more compatible with the EU.rottenborough said:
Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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It's still a picture of a real coup!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
How many British tourists are likely to be in Turkey?0
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John Kerry with a very neutral statement there. No support for Erdogan I noted in his initial tone.0
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I'm sure there is some action here, though I can't see ithttps://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/754054584407040000
No time line on this.0 -
Lead story on BBC10 oclock News now is Nice....... "holiday makers caught up in chaos in Nice".... after 2 mins of headlines they finally mention Turkey.0
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Spoke to a guy yesterday who had just got back from a holiday in Turkey and had a really good time. I don't think I'll be taking up his recommendation to head out there though.0
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I'm talking about UK politics. Nobody would have believed Turkey was about the join the EU if it was in the middle of a coup.eek said:
That shows how very little you understand about Turkish Politics...rottenborough said:
Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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I'd say 10 years up from "never" if this is a secular coup.kle4 said:
Only in abstract, in a '15 years rather than 20 way' surely? A coup would be the Turkish military saying its people cannot be trusted, again, not to vote for a dangerous islamist. If the military regime was in place for awhile, how many 'free' elections returning good secularists would assure the EU everything would not kick up all over again with a new Erdogan?MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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Lawyers are arguing whether to call this a military coup or the ‘so called military coup’ ?RobD said:Am watching Sky, tuned in to BBC a few times in the last minutes. First time they were covering Nice, now the Weather. Why isn't this all over their coverage?
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ITV News also focused first on Nice just like the beeb.
Meanwhile Sky straight into Turkey.0 -
Great coverage from Sky. You can watch their news channel for free here all the time:TCPoliticalBetting said:ITV News also focused first on Nice just like the beeb.
Meanwhile Sky straight into Turkey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg0 -
I would guess >100,000.AndyJS said:How many British tourists are likely to be in Turkey?
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Military so-called coup?SimonStClare said:
Lawyers are arguing whether to call this a military coup or the ‘so called military coup’ ?RobD said:Am watching Sky, tuned in to BBC a few times in the last minutes. First time they were covering Nice, now the Weather. Why isn't this all over their coverage?
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Try https://www.rt.com/on-air/?
Keeps buffering though ...0 -
Evening all, what a terrible 24 hours, first Nice, now Turkey.0
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It's still unlikely, I said it as well. Though if this a secular coup it is probably more likely. I'd venture that Brexit may have been one of the triggers.rottenborough said:
I'm talking about UK politics. Nobody would have believed Turkey was about the join the EU if it was in the middle of a coup.eek said:
That shows how very little you understand about Turkish Politics...rottenborough said:
Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.MaxPB said:
A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.rottenborough said:Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way
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Turkey is a secular country and a strategically vital NATO member. I doubt we've had anything to do with this. Don't forget the Turkish armed forces would beat the shit out of any other NATO country, with the possible exception of the US.nunu said:
We need to stop getting involved in Islamic countries internal politics, will we never learn?Luckyguy1983 said:
That would seem fairly likely. Erdogan has been accusing Gulen of running a 'shadow state' (whatever that is) for a long time. He's also been trying to repair relations with Russia recently, possibly because he knew his card was marked with the US and was trying not to be totally friendless?MarcKlein said:Rumours it's US inspired with the help of this guy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen
Couldn't have happened to a nicer fellow.0 -
It appears the army have turned up at AKP HQ in Ankara and have been spotted in Istanbul as well.0
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How does NATO fit into all this? Can Article 5 only be invoked against attacks by an external power or could a government use it against a coup attempt?0
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The thing is, Turkey might not actually be terrible news.Sunil_Prasannan said:Evening all, what a terrible 24 hours, first Nice, now Turkey.
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£1.4bn given to BT to sweat their aging copper assets in marginally uncommercial suburbs and larger villages whilst failing to solve rural access... an utter farce... Ed Vaizey has always been charming and enthusiastic but has been utterly played by BT...rural_voter said:
Yes, the House of Lords recommended in 2012 a public-funded universal fibre to the home network ASAP to benefit UK PLC (I forget if they meant renationalising Openreach or doing it some other way). Little has happened outside cities. I get the same speed as in 2005, about 6 Mb and many people get less.Rexel56 said:Having had to spend the last two years building our own rural broadband network, fibre-to-the-home, delighted that Ed Vaizey has paid the price for BDUK fiasco...
Rural businesses including farmers are forced to use online government forms, like VAT, but sometimes can't get broadband speeds, only dial up.0 -
No, only against an external aggressor.Gravitation said:How does NATO fit into all this? Can Article 5 only be invoked against attacks by an external power or could a government use it against a coup attempt?
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Why did Sky get rid of Tim Marshall? He was an brilliant when it came to breaking news like this.
Also, I bet Joey Jones is well pissed. Only just got his sat down at his desk spinning for Osborne and I presume he will get the chop like his boss.0 -
Putin's propagandists? Seriously? If it isn't bigging him up it's batty conspiracy theories.rural_voter said:Try https://www.rt.com/on-air/?
Keeps buffering though ...0 -
The BBC and ITV only cover stories in first part where they can get the main presenter there to present from. Having invested in the air tickets and hotel rooms then Nice has to be the first story.AndyJS said:
Obviously can't cope with two big stories at the same time.RobD said:Am watching Sky, tuned in to BBC a few times in the last minutes. First time they were covering Nice, now the Weather. Why isn't this all over their coverage?
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There are significant reasons to think France and/or Russia may be involved.John_M said:
Turkey is a secular country and a strategically vital NATO member. I doubt we've had anything to do with this. Don't forget the Turkish armed forces would beat the shit out of any other NATO country, with the possible exception of the US.nunu said:
We need to stop getting involved in Islamic countries internal politics, will we never learn?Luckyguy1983 said:
That would seem fairly likely. Erdogan has been accusing Gulen of running a 'shadow state' (whatever that is) for a long time. He's also been trying to repair relations with Russia recently, possibly because he knew his card was marked with the US and was trying not to be totally friendless?MarcKlein said:Rumours it's US inspired with the help of this guy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen
Couldn't have happened to a nicer fellow.0 -
To be fair to the beeb it seems everyone is choosing their words carefully.kle4 said:Horrible and chaotic though such events can be, I have a strange interest in seeing how the headlines change, from subtle to extreme. A few minutes ago the BBC main page had a story about Turkey PM decrying 'illegal action' or something along those lines, now it's army group 'takes control of turkey'.
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Joey Jones was/is working for Theresa MayFrancisUrquhart said:Why did Sky get rid of Tim Marshall? He was an brilliant when it came to breaking news like this.
Also, I bet Joey Jones is well pissed. Only just got his sat down at his desk spinning for Osborne and I presume he will get the chop like his boss.0 -
Article 5 doesn't guarantee anything. Even so, it doesn't apply in this case. Greece and Turkey have both had coups before (as NATO members).Gravitation said:How does NATO fit into all this? Can Article 5 only be invoked against attacks by an external power or could a government use it against a coup attempt?
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