Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.
There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.
I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courts
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
That's because you voted leave dude..
Did I? And my day to day life is surrounded by people who overwhelmingly voted to remain. I joked on the Friday of spending the day at one of the countries leading unis & expecting to see academics having to be talked down off roofs etc. In fact what I found was disappointment but determination to crack on. And the message has been one of little immediate change & projects that were already agreed going ahead.
Lol Trump is not Romney. Romney and McCain are the establishment candidates, no one who hasnt voted since the '80s are suddenly going to vote for them plus the financial crash had just happed people are not going to vote for change (when I say change I mean a revolution like Brexit) in the middle of a shit storm they vote for it when things calm down.
Hilary could still win but she needs to connect with wwc ex industrial city America, especially with Trump's VP choice.
The WWC is a diminishing demographic, the more so in swing states and a group that in the primaries showed no exceptional fervour for Trump.
Further for every WWC that Trump might attract he is losing college educated whites that Clinton is polling well in. Trump will not win by relying on WWC.
Spot on as ever Jack - the premier PBer for US politics for many a good year. What is less discussed is how Trump is also losing white professional Republican entrepreneurs. My brother lives in CO, his in-laws are devoted wealthy low-tax GOP, but neither will vote for Trump. His mother-in-law will vote Democratic for the first time in her life "because I wanna see Trump lose so bad". His father-in-law will abstain for the first time.
There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.
There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.
I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courts
If you willingly give up your rights, that's your concern surely.
But it's an interesting one, certainly. In the UK, all the bookmakers require you to use ABAS and not the courts. If they all do, it's effectively a cartel restricting the ability of people to use the UK legal system.
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2. Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?
I gave Trump all the states he is currently leading in the state polling average (all polls, except Rasmussen, Fox, Marist, GQR, Demcorps, partisan pollsters for either Democrats or Republicans) by more than 2%.
Basically all the states Romney won in 2012 minus N.Carolina, and added Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine's CD-2.
Don't forget Maine and Nebraska split their EV votes among their Congressional Districts.
I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?
That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
As do the Jewish law courts.
And I could set up Smithson's Law and Tribunal Court Today, and get people to sign a contract with me when they get married saying they'll consult me first, and that my views will be binding.
I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?
That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
As do the Jewish law courts.
And I could set up Smithson's Law and Tribunal Court Today, and get people to sign a contract with me when they get married saying they'll consult me first, and that my views will be binding.
I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2. Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2. Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2. Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?
Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.
They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
I think Clinton will perhaps carry PA, but it will be close.
There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.
There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.
I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courts
If you willingly give up your rights, that's your concern surely.
But it's an interesting one, certainly. In the UK, all the bookmakers require you to use ABAS and not the courts. If they all do, it's effectively a cartel restricting the ability of people to use the UK legal system.
I was thinking about binding arbitration when I wrote my original post.
But I think that there should be some fundamental guarantees - such as equality before the law - that all citizens benefit from.
If a system meets these criteria then I'd be open to allow people to give up their rights. If not, then not.
E.g. for instance I think that a man can divorce a woman in the Beth Din without any financial settlement. That is not acceptable in my view
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
That's because you voted leave dude..
Did I? And my day to day life is surrounded by people who overwhelmingly voted to remain. I joked on the Friday of spending the day at one of the countries leading unis & expecting to see academics having to be talked down off roofs etc. In fact what I found was disappointment but determination to crack on.
It is because, if the tabloids aren't printing "economy in crisis" headlines for a week or two, people think things are back to normal, since the sun comes up and goes down every day, the same as before. The fact that our economy remains on life support on the back of near-free money and large doses of QE, our debt continues to rise, and whilst being in this immensely fragile position we have just voted to take the biggest 'double or quits' gamble in our history, won't impinge on people unless or until it starts to go wrong.
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?
That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
I think this is the thrust of the investigation.
"The Home Secretary committed to an independent review of the application of sharia law as part of the government’s Counter-Extremism Strategy. The strategy notes that many people in England and Wales follow religious codes and practices, and benefit from the guidance they offer. However, there is evidence some sharia councils may be working in a discriminatory and unacceptable way, seeking to legitimise forced marriage and issuing divorces that are unfair to women, contrary to the teachings of Islam. It will also seek out examples of best practice among sharia councils.
The terms of reference set out the review’s intention to explore whether, and to what extent, the application of sharia law may be incompatible with the law in England and Wales. It will examine the ways in which sharia may be being misused, or exploited, in a way that may discriminate against certain groups, undermine shared values and cause social harms."
With the following rider:
"There is only one rule of law in our country, which provides rights and security for every citizen."
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
By living in London
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
Trump will easily win Missouri - +10-12
Clinton wins PA WI NV FL - +5-7 .. Ohio +3-5
I'd be tempted to give OH to Trump but then both my brother and I lost money last time by under-betting you on the EC vote Jack. You would think we'd learned our lesson!
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
By living in London
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
Similar to Romney's score there?
Indeed.
As I have mentioned back in April, due to the nature of Trump losing some Republicans and gaining Democrats there is a swing that is distinct in safe states.
So far on the states that have polls published, the average shift from 2012 per category is:
Safe R states. Trump -12 Hillary -4
Swing States. Hillary -8 Trump -6
Safe D states. Hillary -13 Trump -5
That is not enough usually to move safe states into the other camp, because the majorities from 2012 where so large for the victor. But in individual states like Utah, Maine, Connecticut and Delaware it is enough to reduce the margin to single digits. In the case of Maine, Trump may pick up 1 EV from CD-2.
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
By living in London
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
Indeed. What the hell is her problem. Grayling took a relatively minor role after being the PM's main backer. Stupid person.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
Similar to Romney's score there?
Indeed.
As I have mentioned back in April, due to the nature of Trump losing some Republicans and gaining Democrats there is a swing that is distinct in safe states.
So far on the states that have polls published, the average shift from 2012 per category is:
Safe R states. Trump -12 Hillary -4
Swing States. Hillary -8 Trump -6
Safe D states. Hillary -13 Trump -5
That is not enough usually to move safe states into the other camp, because the majorities from 2012 where so large for the victor. But in individual states like Utah, Maine, Connecticut and Delaware it is enough to reduce the margin to single digits. In the case of Maine, Trump may pick up 1 EV from CD-2.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
Indeed. What the hell is her problem. Grayling took a relatively minor role after being the PM's main backer. Stupid person.
She's got a new job offer in the cabinet of the new European Democrats.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
By living in London
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
Crazy stuff.
If it is a military coup I'm surprised both that it is happening and that it hasn't happened yet.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
Could it not just be an anti-terrorist operation?
It could, but in all three cities at once it seems a little unlikely. A 'terrorist plot' has been used as cover for a coup before as well, e.g. Hitler in 1934.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup. Erdogan might survive if its unsanctioned.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lol Not that anyone thought they would soon.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup. Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
I gave Trump all the states he is currently leading in the state polling average (all polls, except Rasmussen, Fox, Marist, GQR, Demcorps, partisan pollsters for either Democrats or Republicans) by more than 2%.
Basically all the states Romney won in 2012 minus N.Carolina, and added Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine's CD-2.
Don't forget Maine and Nebraska split their EV votes among their Congressional Districts.
While we wait to see what, if any, new horror is being perpetrated, a repeat link to Andy Haldane's speech on 30th June. Apparently his remarks today lopped 1.32% off sterling, so he's 1/10 of a Brexit in his own right. Good speech, complete with graphs at the back.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lol Not that anyone thought they would soon.
A coup could make eventual accession more likely not less.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup. Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.
I'd be tempted to give OH to Trump but then both my brother and I lost money last time by under-betting you on the EC vote Jack. You would think we'd learned our lesson!
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup. Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.
The military are the secular ones, right?
The reports I'm getting are about tanks on the bridges of the Bosporus right now.
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lol Not that anyone thought they would soon.
A coup could make eventual accession more likely not less.
Indeed, if the military are about to oust the AKP then it makes Turkey joining the EU much more likely.
Comments
Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD
https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN
But it's an interesting one, certainly. In the UK, all the bookmakers require you to use ABAS and not the courts. If they all do, it's effectively a cartel restricting the ability of people to use the UK legal system.
Clinton wins PA WI NV FL - +5-7 .. Ohio +3-5
Basically all the states Romney won in 2012 minus N.Carolina, and added Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine's CD-2.
Don't forget Maine and Nebraska split their EV votes among their Congressional Districts.
And I could set up Smithson's Law and Tribunal Court Today, and get people to sign a contract with me when they get married saying they'll consult me first, and that my views will be binding.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/15/lowcostholidays-administration-warning-travellers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
But I think that there should be some fundamental guarantees - such as equality before the law - that all citizens benefit from.
If a system meets these criteria then I'd be open to allow people to give up their rights. If not, then not.
E.g. for instance I think that a man can divorce a woman in the Beth Din without any financial settlement. That is not acceptable in my view
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
"The Home Secretary committed to an independent review of the application of sharia law as part of the government’s Counter-Extremism Strategy. The strategy notes that many people in England and Wales follow religious codes and practices, and benefit from the guidance they offer. However, there is evidence some sharia councils may be working in a discriminatory and unacceptable way, seeking to legitimise forced marriage and issuing divorces that are unfair to women, contrary to the teachings of Islam. It will also seek out examples of best practice among sharia councils.
The terms of reference set out the review’s intention to explore whether, and to what extent, the application of sharia law may be incompatible with the law in England and Wales. It will examine the ways in which sharia may be being misused, or exploited, in a way that may discriminate against certain groups, undermine shared values and cause social harms."
With the following rider:
"There is only one rule of law in our country, which provides rights and security for every citizen."
As I have mentioned back in April, due to the nature of Trump losing some Republicans and gaining Democrats there is a swing that is distinct in safe states.
So far on the states that have polls published, the average shift from 2012 per category is:
Safe R states.
Trump -12
Hillary -4
Swing States.
Hillary -8
Trump -6
Safe D states.
Hillary -13
Trump -5
That is not enough usually to move safe states into the other camp, because the majorities from 2012 where so large for the victor.
But in individual states like Utah, Maine, Connecticut and Delaware it is enough to reduce the margin to single digits.
In the case of Maine, Trump may pick up 1 EV from CD-2.
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
It was only 24 hours since the last terrorist attack on the news.
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
Erdogan might survive if its unsanctioned.
Not that anyone thought they would soon.
That's damned low.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech916.pdf
Sky would likely rely on PA etc at first. Either way 24/7 coverage would be maintained.
'It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted.
That sums up Sourby.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.'
More good news.
Turkish opposition says right now that it is a coup.