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  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.

    Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.
    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
    Agree with all that (except Utah!) - Clinton will also carry CO.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    RobD said:

    I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?

    That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.

    Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.
    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
    Where can you bet on individual states?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    Jobabob said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.

    Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.
    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
    Agree with all that (except Utah!) - Clinton will also carry CO.
    Oh, I think Trump will win Utah. In fact, he's probably a 90% chance. But he's not a 99% chance.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

    I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.

    Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.
    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
    Where can you bet on individual states?
    Somebody said it was 100-1 earlier, I haven't checked where they got that from.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2016
    rcs1000 said:



    There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.

    There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.

    I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courts
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    Somebody said it was 100-1 earlier, I haven't checked where they got that from.

    https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/753910308834533380
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2016
    .

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    That's because you voted leave dude..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++

    Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP

    Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD

    https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    That's because you voted leave dude..
    Did I? And my day to day life is surrounded by people who overwhelmingly voted to remain. I joked on the Friday of spending the day at one of the countries leading unis & expecting to see academics having to be talked down off roofs etc. In fact what I found was disappointment but determination to crack on. And the message has been one of little immediate change & projects that were already agreed going ahead.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    Lol Trump is not Romney. Romney and McCain are the establishment candidates, no one who hasnt voted since the '80s are suddenly going to vote for them plus the financial crash had just happed people are not going to vote for change (when I say change I mean a revolution like Brexit) in the middle of a shit storm they vote for it when things calm down.

    Hilary could still win but she needs to connect with wwc ex industrial city America, especially with Trump's VP choice.

    The WWC is a diminishing demographic, the more so in swing states and a group that in the primaries showed no exceptional fervour for Trump.

    Further for every WWC that Trump might attract he is losing college educated whites that Clinton is polling well in. Trump will not win by relying on WWC.

    Spot on as ever Jack - the premier PBer for US politics for many a good year. What is less discussed is how Trump is also losing white professional Republican entrepreneurs. My brother lives in CO, his in-laws are devoted wealthy low-tax GOP, but neither will vote for Trump. His mother-in-law will vote Democratic for the first time in her life "because I wanna see Trump lose so bad". His father-in-law will abstain for the first time.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++

    Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP

    Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD

    https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN

    Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.
  • rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?

    That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
    But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:



    There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.

    There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.

    I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courts
    If you willingly give up your rights, that's your concern surely.

    But it's an interesting one, certainly. In the UK, all the bookmakers require you to use ABAS and not the courts. If they all do, it's effectively a cartel restricting the ability of people to use the UK legal system.
  • Jobabob said:

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

    I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
    It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.

    Trump will easily win Missouri - +10-12

    Clinton wins PA WI NV FL - +5-7 .. Ohio +3-5

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.

    It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    I gave Trump all the states he is currently leading in the state polling average (all polls, except Rasmussen, Fox, Marist, GQR, Demcorps, partisan pollsters for either Democrats or Republicans) by more than 2%.

    Basically all the states Romney won in 2012 minus N.Carolina, and added Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine's CD-2.

    Don't forget Maine and Nebraska split their EV votes among their Congressional Districts.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?

    That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
    But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
    As do the Jewish law courts.

    And I could set up Smithson's Law and Tribunal Court Today, and get people to sign a contract with me when they get married saying they'll consult me first, and that my views will be binding.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited July 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++

    Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP

    Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD

    https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN

    Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.
    Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:
    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
    Similar to Romney's score there?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?

    That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
    But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
    As do the Jewish law courts.

    And I could set up Smithson's Law and Tribunal Court Today, and get people to sign a contract with me when they get married saying they'll consult me first, and that my views will be binding.
    A bit like House Saxe-Coburg Gotha? :D
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
    I think Clinton will perhaps carry PA, but it will be close.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:



    There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.

    There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.

    I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courts
    If you willingly give up your rights, that's your concern surely.

    But it's an interesting one, certainly. In the UK, all the bookmakers require you to use ABAS and not the courts. If they all do, it's effectively a cartel restricting the ability of people to use the UK legal system.
    I was thinking about binding arbitration when I wrote my original post.

    But I think that there should be some fundamental guarantees - such as equality before the law - that all citizens benefit from.

    If a system meets these criteria then I'd be open to allow people to give up their rights. If not, then not.

    E.g. for instance I think that a man can divorce a woman in the Beth Din without any financial settlement. That is not acceptable in my view
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

    I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
    It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
    By living in London :smiley:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    That's because you voted leave dude..
    Did I? And my day to day life is surrounded by people who overwhelmingly voted to remain. I joked on the Friday of spending the day at one of the countries leading unis & expecting to see academics having to be talked down off roofs etc. In fact what I found was disappointment but determination to crack on.
    It is because, if the tabloids aren't printing "economy in crisis" headlines for a week or two, people think things are back to normal, since the sun comes up and goes down every day, the same as before. The fact that our economy remains on life support on the back of near-free money and large doses of QE, our debt continues to rise, and whilst being in this immensely fragile position we have just voted to take the biggest 'double or quits' gamble in our history, won't impinge on people unless or until it starts to go wrong.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,261
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.

    Ahahahahahahahahaha
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?

    That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
    But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
    I think this is the thrust of the investigation.

    "The Home Secretary committed to an independent review of the application of sharia law as part of the government’s Counter-Extremism Strategy. The strategy notes that many people in England and Wales follow religious codes and practices, and benefit from the guidance they offer. However, there is evidence some sharia councils may be working in a discriminatory and unacceptable way, seeking to legitimise forced marriage and issuing divorces that are unfair to women, contrary to the teachings of Islam. It will also seek out examples of best practice among sharia councils.

    The terms of reference set out the review’s intention to explore whether, and to what extent, the application of sharia law may be incompatible with the law in England and Wales. It will examine the ways in which sharia may be being misused, or exploited, in a way that may discriminate against certain groups, undermine shared values and cause social harms."


    With the following rider:

    "There is only one rule of law in our country, which provides rights and security for every citizen."
  • Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

    I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
    It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
    By living in London :smiley:
    I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Could be a threat prompted closure?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    JackW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.

    Trump will easily win Missouri - +10-12

    Clinton wins PA WI NV FL - +5-7 .. Ohio +3-5

    I'd be tempted to give OH to Trump but then both my brother and I lost money last time by under-betting you on the EC vote Jack. You would think we'd learned our lesson!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016
    Breaking - gunfire, military jets & helicopters overhead in istanbul
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?

    That is correct. (As it is with Sharia in the UK.)
    But it extends to matrimonial and family law issues as well.
    But they have recourse to English law.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.

    Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.
    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
    Where can you bet on individual states?
    Somebody said it was 100-1 earlier, I haven't checked where they got that from.
    Betfair isn't doing state betting atm.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    Breaking - gunfire, military jets & helicopters overhead in istanbul

    Wow, there aren't many threats that would need a jet to be deployed :(
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

    I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
    It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
    By living in London :smiley:
    I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
    I do actually, from time to time.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:
    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
    Similar to Romney's score there?
    Indeed.

    As I have mentioned back in April, due to the nature of Trump losing some Republicans and gaining Democrats there is a swing that is distinct in safe states.

    So far on the states that have polls published, the average shift from 2012 per category is:

    Safe R states.
    Trump -12
    Hillary -4

    Swing States.
    Hillary -8
    Trump -6

    Safe D states.
    Hillary -13
    Trump -5

    That is not enough usually to move safe states into the other camp, because the majorities from 2012 where so large for the victor.
    But in individual states like Utah, Maine, Connecticut and Delaware it is enough to reduce the margin to single digits.
    In the case of Maine, Trump may pick up 1 EV from CD-2.
  • Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

    I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
    It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
    By living in London :smiley:
    I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
    I do actually, from time to time.
    I rest my case!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.

    It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
    Indeed. What the hell is her problem. Grayling took a relatively minor role after being the PM's main backer. Stupid person.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Vice news reporter suggesting could be a military coup.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++

    Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP

    Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD

    https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN

    Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.
    Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.
    I always thought Penny Mordaunt was something to do with the Navy. No idea where I got that idea from.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++

    Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP

    Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD

    https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN

    Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.
    Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.
    I always thought Penny Mordaunt was something to do with the Navy. No idea where I got that idea from.
    Being an MP for Portsmouth, possibly?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    So Boris how you liking this cushy foreign secretary job....
  • Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.

    It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
    That sums up Sourby.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Speedy said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:
    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
    Similar to Romney's score there?
    Indeed.

    As I have mentioned back in April, due to the nature of Trump losing some Republicans and gaining Democrats there is a swing that is distinct in safe states.

    So far on the states that have polls published, the average shift from 2012 per category is:

    Safe R states.
    Trump -12
    Hillary -4

    Swing States.
    Hillary -8
    Trump -6

    Safe D states.
    Hillary -13
    Trump -5

    That is not enough usually to move safe states into the other camp, because the majorities from 2012 where so large for the victor.
    But in individual states like Utah, Maine, Connecticut and Delaware it is enough to reduce the margin to single digits.
    In the case of Maine, Trump may pick up 1 EV from CD-2.
    What's your overall forecast for the EC?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    Could it not just be an anti-terrorist operation?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Breaking - gunfire, military jets & helicopters overhead in istanbul

    Oh not again.
    It was only 24 hours since the last terrorist attack on the news.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169

    So Boris how you liking this cushy foreign secretary job....

    The ideal man to deal with a problem in Turkey though...
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    IanB2 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++

    Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP

    Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD

    https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN

    Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.
    Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.
    I always thought Penny Mordaunt was something to do with the Navy. No idea where I got that idea from.
    Being an MP for Portsmouth, possibly?
    She was a Navy Reservist.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.

    It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
    Indeed. What the hell is her problem. Grayling took a relatively minor role after being the PM's main backer. Stupid person.
    She's got a new job offer in the cabinet of the new European Democrats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    Crazy stuff.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

    I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.
    It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?
    By living in London :smiley:
    I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.
    I do actually, from time to time.
    I rest my case!
    Only from Pret :smiley:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    Crazy stuff.
    If it is a military coup I'm surprised both that it is happening and that it hasn't happened yet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    Could it not just be an anti-terrorist operation?
    It could, but in all three cities at once it seems a little unlikely. A 'terrorist plot' has been used as cover for a coup before as well, e.g. Hitler in 1934.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.

    However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
    Erdogan might survive if its unsanctioned.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lol
    Not that anyone thought they would soon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Speedy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.

    However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
    Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.
    The military are the secular ones, right?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    Crazy stuff.
    My interpretation or the Turkish Army's actions?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.

    It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted
    That sums up Sourby.
    Good riddance to bad rubbish.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    I gave Trump all the states he is currently leading in the state polling average (all polls, except Rasmussen, Fox, Marist, GQR, Demcorps, partisan pollsters for either Democrats or Republicans) by more than 2%.

    Basically all the states Romney won in 2012 minus N.Carolina, and added Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine's CD-2.

    Don't forget Maine and Nebraska split their EV votes among their Congressional Districts.

    I make that only 258 for Trump ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Footage of Tanks on the streets & jets flying very very low.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    While we wait to see what, if any, new horror is being perpetrated, a repeat link to Andy Haldane's speech on 30th June. Apparently his remarks today lopped 1.32% off sterling, so he's 1/10 of a Brexit in his own right. Good speech, complete with graphs at the back.

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech916.pdf
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Real baptism of fire for our PM and Foreign Secretary. Terrorism in Europe and a possible coup in a NATO nation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Military coup in Turkey?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nunu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lol
    Not that anyone thought they would soon.
    A coup could make eventual accession more likely not less.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Could spend the News channels into a spin - all their top people are in France.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.

    However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
    Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.
    The military are the secular ones, right?
    Correct.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jobabob said:

    I'd be tempted to give OH to Trump but then both my brother and I lost money last time by under-betting you on the EC vote Jack. You would think we'd learned our lesson!

    Well quite .. :smile:

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    Could it not just be an anti-terrorist operation?
    With planes?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    MaxPB said:

    Real baptism of fire for our PM and Foreign Secretary. Terrorism in Europe and a possible coup in a NATO nation.

    Hopefully Boris can silence his critics. Not holding my breath mind you.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.

    However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
    Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.
    The military are the secular ones, right?
    The reports I'm getting are about tanks on the bridges of the Bosporus right now.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Soubry tweeting that she's returning to her constituency to continue campaigning for Remain. Stay true to the Emperor Anna! Banzai!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ambulances at the office of the General Staff indicate it could be terrorism related rather than a coup.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334

    nunu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    wasd said:

    There appears to be something happening in Turkey.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE

    Gunfire reported
    What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.

    Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
    I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).
    That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?
    So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lol
    Not that anyone thought they would soon.
    A coup could make eventual accession more likely not less.
    Indeed, if the military are about to oust the AKP then it makes Turkey joining the EU much more likely.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,045
    The news outlets absolutely nowhere to be seen on this turkey stuff. 2016 - blimey
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    Erdogan is apparently on holiday abroad. Coincidence?
  • Nothing at all about Turkey on Sky News
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    The news outlets absolutely nowhere to be seen on this turkey stuff. 2016 - blimey

    PB is the place to be!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    ydoethur said:

    Erdogan is apparently on holiday abroad. Coincidence?

    Interesting....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex. said:

    Could spend the News channels into a spin - all their top people are in France.

    BBC have thousands of people worldwide precisely for events like this, they can pivot very quickly.

    Sky would likely rely on PA etc at first. Either way 24/7 coverage would be maintained.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    ydoethur said:

    Erdogan is apparently on holiday abroad. Coincidence?

    Sounds a bit too coincidental if he is overseas and the military launch a huge exercise.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Richard_Tyndall

    'It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted.
    That sums up Sourby.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish.'

    More good news.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Nothing at all about Turkey on Sky News

    Sky don't do breaking news once they've got a pre-prepared story to fill the schedules.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    Nothing at all about Turkey on Sky News

    Telegraph have a liveblog up, but only with the information posted on PB ages ago. Nothing on the Guardian yet...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    ydoethur said:

    Erdogan is apparently on holiday abroad. Coincidence?

    Then it might be a coup.

    Turkish opposition says right now that it is a coup.
This discussion has been closed.