politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
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A small part.Jobabob said:
Some of it is in EuropeSpeedy said:
Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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Half of Istanbul is definitely in Europe - although I usually stay on the Asian side looking over...Speedy said:
Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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As if anything's up to Obama fgs.rcs1000 said:
Where from?Speedy said:
The info i'm getting is that this is a NATO backed coup.AndyJS said:Where does this leave NATO?
I guess there's going to be a second COBRA meeting in the space of 24 hours.
Also tanks are on the way to Ankara right now.
And how would Obama suddenly grow the massive pair of cojones required to sponsor a coup in a NATO state?0 -
Blimey... was the PM's statement worthy of the former Information Minister?AndyJS said:0 -
Surely that's game over? If the military insurrection controls all key transport and communications the government are literally unable to do anything even if there are loyal troops.John_M said:Airport taken.
Somebody very senior and very good is behind this if it's got this far in barely an hour.0 -
Brexit will cost a fortune and use up most of the money we used to pay the EU - sorry NHS.alex. said:Because breaking news is boring - I was thinking about the Foreign office earlier today - does Brexit mean that there is going to need to be a big increase in the Foreign office budget. Do we not subcontract a large amount of our embassy/consular work to the EU (or at least do a lot of sharing of buildings etc in smaller countries)? Or do we actually still have a fully functioning operation in countries around the world?
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Not me, but the Nats beat me long ago and I saw it as inevitable. If May could save the Union, definitively, I would consider Remaining a price worth paying.Jobabob said:
It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit
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Sky reporting the Turkish military have taken over.0
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Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".0
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Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
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Good job Boris doesn't have to also bash out a Telegraph column for Monday ;-)marke09 said:Talk of a baptism of fire no tin the job more than 2 days and Theresa May has had to deal with foreign terrorism and now a coup
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As is well known, bits of it are in Europe. As a term, Europe has quite vague definitions, geographically.Speedy said:
Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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A coup in Turkey.
Today.
Is there a play being made from the Quai D'Orsay?0 -
The Bosphorus Bridge literally connects Europe to Asia.RobD said:
A small part.Jobabob said:
Some of it is in EuropeSpeedy said:
Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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YepThomasNashe said:
The Bosphorus Bridge literally connects Europe to Asia.RobD said:
A small part.Jobabob said:
Some of it is in EuropeSpeedy said:
Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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Ed Vaizey is out of government. Christ, May really doesn't like Cameroons, does she.0
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So I've been consumed with the made up politics of the Dragon Age universe for the last several hours, what's going down in Turkey? I thought the military had been hobbled there for awhile, and Erdogan popularly backed.0
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Here we go.Luckyguy1983 said:
As if anything's up to Obama fgs.rcs1000 said:
Where from?Speedy said:
The info i'm getting is that this is a NATO backed coup.AndyJS said:Where does this leave NATO?
I guess there's going to be a second COBRA meeting in the space of 24 hours.
Also tanks are on the way to Ankara right now.
And how would Obama suddenly grow the massive pair of cojones required to sponsor a coup in a NATO state?
Cue spooky music.0 -
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).0 -
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It must depend - if the police and irregulars remain loyal to the previous government then it could become very unpleasant.ydoethur said:
Surely that's game over? If the military insurrection controls all key transport and communications the government are literally unable to do anything even if there are loyal troops.John_M said:Airport taken.
Somebody very senior and very good is behind this if it's got this far in barely an hour.0 -
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Istanbul is pretty anti-Erdogan isn't it?0
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I say it is. Sad to see Scotland go, but as Sean said the tail can't wag the dog.Jobabob said:
It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit
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May was summoned, she did not do the summoning. The balance of power has been fairly clear for quite some time.Jobabob said:
It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit
May capitulated to Nicola today.0 -
Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.RobD said:Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".
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The only people who will notice that sacking is the posh restaurants around Westminster.John_M said:Ed Vaizey is out of government. Christ, May really doesn't like Cameroons, does she.
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Are we sure the events in Turkey aren't a Pokemon Go game that's gone too far?0
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Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?ydoethur said:
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).0 -
I was discussing this with colleagues yesterday. That game could lead to war....TheScreamingEagles said:Are we sure the events in Turkey aren't a Pokemon Go game that's gone too far?
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With due respect to the Turkish police, they would stand no chance of fighting jets and tanks. I do not think many would be stupid enough to try either.wasd said:
It must depend - if the police and irregulars remain loyal to the previous government then it could become very unpleasant.ydoethur said:
Surely that's game over? If the military insurrection controls all key transport and communications the government are literally unable to do anything even if there are loyal troops.John_M said:Airport taken.
Somebody very senior and very good is behind this if it's got this far in barely an hour.0 -
Pretty everything's a price worth paying to the Brexiteers. It's all they care about, leaving the bloody EU.nunu said:
I say it is. Sad to see Scotland go, but as Sean said the tail can't wag the dog.Jobabob said:
It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit
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Turkish army will protect Ataturk's legacy at all costs. It's hardly the first time they've done this.kle4 said:
Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.RobD said:Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".
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They would have to go some to be more corrupt than the current leadership....ydoethur said:
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).0 -
Absolute rubbish - she and Nicola were acting as grown ups unlike yourselfLowlander said:
May was summoned, she did not do the summoning. The balance of power has been fairly clear for quite some time.Jobabob said:
It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit
May capitulated to Nicola today.0 -
Since Ataturk the Turkish military have been guardians of their constitution and have had coups repeatedly and so far successfully. If Erdogan is gone then that could be a very good thing.kle4 said:
Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.RobD said:Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".
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That's nonsense, Mr Burnham is always very firm in who he backs. Until tomorrow that is. But then he is equally firm in who he then backs.Pulpstar said:0 -
Pulpstar said:
The Turkish military about to show Gove and the PLP how a coup is done
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It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.alex. said:
Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?ydoethur said:
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...0 -
The Turkish military have what might be called a "positive" history. Certainly in terms of what their occasional interventions in democracy have meant for the West.kle4 said:
Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.RobD said:Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".
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That looks like a seriously complicated game!Speedy said:Anyone want to play Junta?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junta_(game)0 -
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:0 -
No, but I had thought they'd lost the power to try it. Apparently not. The people keep electing the wrong people though, apparently. Tis every thus, with democracies.John_M said:
Turkish army will protect Ataturk's legacy at all costs. It's hardly the first time they've done this.kle4 said:
Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.RobD said:Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".
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Blimey!
Not really followed the political situation in Turkey but did/does Erdogan have decent public support? Will the Turkish population support this coup?0 -
That didn't stop Musharraf or Pinochet, or for that matter Franco or Horthy.eek said:
They would have to go some to be more corrupt than the current leadership....ydoethur said:
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).0 -
Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracyTheScreamingEagles said:
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:0 -
Sky: all flights out of Ataturk have been cancelled...0
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Fair warning, I'm already planning a resistance movement.TheScreamingEagles said:
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:
We shall be called the Keyboard Warriors, and your despotic regime shall tremble at our biting online criticism.0 -
Having had to spend the last two years building our own rural broadband network, fibre-to-the-home, delighted that Ed Vaizey has paid the price for BDUK fiasco...0
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Oh, has May contested Nicola's statement about her capitulation?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Absolute rubbish - she and Nicola were acting as grown ups unlike yourselfLowlander said:
May was summoned, she did not do the summoning. The balance of power has been fairly clear for quite some time.Jobabob said:
It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit
May capitulated to Nicola today.
May has not. So we know which way the wind blew. May capitulated, although it still won't be enough to stop the UK being dissolved.0 -
Well, as conspiracy theories go, it's more believeable than most. Erdogan has the personal qualities required, but lacks the organisational support.marke09 said:Mike Dammann @firetown 2m2 minutes ago
Local conspiracy theory in Turkey: " its a false flag coup so Erdogan can defeat the fake coup and seize more power"0 -
Turkey:
Police attempting to block Military movements on and around the Bosphorus. Civil War?0 -
Mahir Zeynalov @MahirZeynalov 8m8 minutes ago
A blast in Ankara police special forces training center.0 -
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Where's Lord Falconer when you need him?0
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I meant in the sense that they've got a history of intervening when elected governments start to deviate from the constitution, and haven't generally hung around for longer than necessary.ydoethur said:
It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.alex. said:
Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?ydoethur said:
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...0 -
"Game time depends on how often coups are declared, but can often exceed six hours."rcs1000 said:
That looks like a seriously complicated game!Speedy said:Anyone want to play Junta?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junta_(game)
A mistress leaves a player open to a character assassination card. Cor!0 -
Really odd watching a coup and not knowing who the good guys are.0
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Whether it is true or not it will be said it is a western backed coup. I'm sure the russians will confirm that story too.nunu said:
That would be stupid, even more reason for Islamists to complainSpeedy said:Erdogan himself has confirmed it's a military coup.
Information that I'm getting right now is that this is a western backed coup.0 -
Ataturk is a semi-divine figure. I think it is unlikely the military is divided. Maybe some of the leaders of the military but they will have already been "neutralised".ydoethur said:
It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.alex. said:
Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?ydoethur said:
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...0 -
If the PM's still free and making statements, the coup's not going well, right? You need to lock down the opposition right from the start, I'd have thought. And if you cannot...0
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I shall abolish parliament and appoint regional governors who will have direct control over their territoriesRobD said:
Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracyTheScreamingEagles said:
When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or sokle4 said:0 -
That's all Europe needs,more refugee's,this looks like a civil war.0
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All TV channels in Turkey are now off the air.0
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Well Erdogan definitely isn't a "good guy". Whether or not the military is, is yet to be determined.TheWhiteRabbit said:Really odd watching a coup and not knowing who the good guys are.
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I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in TurkeyYellowSubmarine said:
A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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True, but I recall how euphoric people were at the Sisi coup over Morsi and he has rapidly backslid into typical military dictatorship ways. The military can never claim any legitimacy so they eventually can only rule with a big stick. Undoubtedly the fewer islamists in power the better, but this may not be particularly good news for the turks.Philip_Thompson said:
Since Ataturk the Turkish military have been guardians of their constitution and have had coups repeatedly and so far successfully. If Erdogan is gone then that could be a very good thing.kle4 said:
Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.RobD said:Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".
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But it looks as though this isn't the whole military, just a section of it. Which also suggests a power struggle may follow. Which means each side will entrench,and be afraid to give up power for fear of reprisals.alex. said:
I meant in the sense that they've got a history of intervening when elected governments start to deviate from the constitution, and haven't generally hung around for longer than necessary.ydoethur said:
It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.alex. said:
Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?ydoethur said:
BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.dr_spyn said:Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...
It also tells me that the Turkish system of government is inadequate if every ten years or so you need the army to seize power and put it back together.0 -
On balance, it is very likely that the Turkish military are the good guys.TheWhiteRabbit said:Really odd watching a coup and not knowing who the good guys are.
They could be supported by France or Russia (or, possibly, both).0 -
I think it would be wrong to suggest this is Turkey moving away from Accession, especially given Erdogan's policies.Charles said:
I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in TurkeyYellowSubmarine said:
A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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Rumours it's US-inspired with the help of this guy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen0 -
Sky reporting leading generals being held hostage0
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https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754053690479276032
May be an officers coup.
But it's very successful so far.0 -
That is true, although false impressions created about how soon Turkey might join - usually based of diplomatic pronouncements that of course were optimistic - was one of the bolder untruths of the Leave campaign. The immigration angle was strong enough regardless, I don't know why they even bothered.Charles said:
I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in TurkeyYellowSubmarine said:
A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.TheScreamingEagles said:So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe
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Blimey the whole world is going crazy this Summer!
Nevermind, Keep Calm And Brexit On.0 -
Good time to be long gold.0
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Our world continues to produce history much, much faster than it can sanely be consumed.0
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You have to remember that Erdogan has purged the senior generals at least once (I think its twice but don't my googlefu is failing me) to replace them with ones loyal to him.. As such the senior generals are not that supportedSpeedy said:https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754053690479276032
May be an officers coup.
But it's very successful so far.0