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  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Trump needs a new logo designer, or it's what he has in mind:

    https://twitter.com/edatpost/status/753983136640405504

    Q. How much is trumppence?
    A. As much as you want it to be dude, as much as you want it to be.
    Where is your imagination?

    Look at the T and look at the P, what is the T doing to the P on the logo?
    This is going to produce some jokes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump needs a new logo designer, or it's what he has in mind:

    https://twitter.com/edatpost/status/753983136640405504

    Q. How much is trumppence?
    A. As much as you want it to be dude, as much as you want it to be.
    Where is your imagination?

    Look at the T and look at the P, what is the T doing to the P on the logo?
    This is going to produce some jokes.
    You have a dirty mind, Speedy! Please say a thousand "PB Tory" as penance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Turn off the broken record.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    Crap day then
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    The Trump-Pence logo reminds me of an Apadravya. (Probably NSFW if you need to look it up!)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump needs a new logo designer, or it's what he has in mind:

    https://twitter.com/edatpost/status/753983136640405504

    Q. How much is trumppence?
    A. As much as you want it to be dude, as much as you want it to be.
    Where is your imagination?

    Look at the T and look at the P, what is the T doing to the P on the logo?
    This is going to produce some jokes.
    In that case I'd imagine Trump wouldn't welcome the image of a hand trying to pump some life into a limp dick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited July 2016
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    Crap day then
    Been up there for work but seen no nats sadly MalcG though did see Jeremy Spake!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    I know, this didn't look like a normal terrorist attack since the start.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    They can't use the lounges ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    Hope you asked Georgie how the killing nationalism stone dead thing was going.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    FF43 said:

    surbiton said:

    My purchase costs have gone up by 10% in the last 3 weeks. From £ 0.75/EUR to £0.84/EUR.

    I have just announced a complete stop to any new spending. I hope to avoid any redundancies. I managed to do that in 2009/2010.

    Since we do not have any UK competitors, all of us are in the same boat. So, let's see, who puts up prices first.

    Some of our prices are going up. The government is switching the money taps on. We're seeing the return of inflation. We're just not used to it. Wages will likely not rise, so we will inflate our way through Brexit by reducing real wages.
    Is the inflation being caused by the weakness of sterling, caused by Brexit?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Surely May's comments today are about making the SNP be the people who walk away from the negotiations rather than giving them a veto. May has said the SNP will need to agree with the initial UK Brexit strategy. But by definition the SNP can never do that. May can't alter the path to a second referendum by she can appear hyper reasonable before it happens. It's a perfectly sensible thing to do.

    All the smart people on this forum can see it - Nicola in theory should just declare a 2nd ref now. But she'll have to go through the motions nevertheless ;) !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    malcolmg said:

    I,m sure Theresa would love to sign up Scotland to agreeing on whatever Brexit route we go down. but I'm also sure it's just politicking and Nicola is too smart not to see that. T cant let Scotland have a veto on any deals but to openly ignore them would just stoke up the calls for Sindy2. So go have a chat with N. and when it almost certainly gets nowhere you say you tried your best and if she has levered a couple of percent from the Sindy YES column it's mission accomplished.

    Finally an intelligent response. It is pretty obvious that it was just round 1 and a lot of water will go under the bridge before we know who comes out best and whether it ends the union or not. May at least is more intelligent than the Bullingdon duffers and keeps her powder dry rather than running away at the mouth .
    Whatever our politics, whatever our background, I would hope that most of us would agree to cheer on May so long as she continues to show up the country's foolishness in having once entrusted our future to a bunch of Eton educated toffs...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    I,m sure Theresa would love to sign up Scotland to agreeing on whatever Brexit route we go down. but I'm also sure it's just politicking and Nicola is too smart not to see that. T cant let Scotland have a veto on any deals but to openly ignore them would just stoke up the calls for Sindy2. So go have a chat with N. and when it almost certainly gets nowhere you say you tried your best and if she has levered a couple of percent from the Sindy YES column it's mission accomplished.

    Finally an intelligent response. It is pretty obvious that it was just round 1 and a lot of water will go under the bridge before we know who comes out best and whether it ends the union or not. May at least is more intelligent than the Bullingdon duffers and keeps her powder dry rather than running away at the mouth .
    Whatever our politics, whatever our background, I would hope that most of us would agree to cheer on May so long as she continues to show up the country's foolishness in having once entrusted our future to a bunch of Eton educated toffs...
    She can only be an improvement on the last lot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited July 2016
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    They can't use the lounges ?
    Robertson to be fair was outside his Range Rover, Crick is on the same plane as me, presently reading about football
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716

    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    Hope you asked Georgie how the killing nationalism stone dead thing was going.
    Not too well but not as bad as Scottish Labour
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    They can't use the lounges ?
    Robertson to be fair was outside his Range Rover, Crick is on the same plane as me, presently reading about football
    Has he taken the free bevvy
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    edited July 2016
    perdix said:

    FF43 said:

    surbiton said:

    My purchase costs have gone up by 10% in the last 3 weeks. From £ 0.75/EUR to £0.84/EUR.

    I have just announced a complete stop to any new spending. I hope to avoid any redundancies. I managed to do that in 2009/2010.

    Since we do not have any UK competitors, all of us are in the same boat. So, let's see, who puts up prices first.

    Some of our prices are going up. The government is switching the money taps on. We're seeing the return of inflation. We're just not used to it. Wages will likely not rise, so we will inflate our way through Brexit by reducing real wages.
    Is the inflation being caused by the weakness of sterling, caused by Brexit?
    The weakness of sterling is delivering a one-off inflationary shock to the economy, as everything we import, from a lot of our food, through to components and fuel, is suddenly 10%+ more expensive. What matters from now is the extent to which this shock is absorbed, or brushed off, as against becoming the start of an inflationary spiral, with rising prices and rising wages feeding upon each other, leading toward rising interest rates (which then brings home to roost all the problems we have been able to ignore during the past near-decade of free money). Absorbing a shock of 10% without getting into such a spiral isn't impossible - but it does mean sharing such a loss of wealth between our workers and our businesses.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,129
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    I,m sure Theresa would love to sign up Scotland to agreeing on whatever Brexit route we go down. but I'm also sure it's just politicking and Nicola is too smart not to see that. T cant let Scotland have a veto on any deals but to openly ignore them would just stoke up the calls for Sin7dy2. So go have a chat with N. and when it almost certainly gets nowhere you say you tried your best and if she has levered a couple of percent from the Sindy YES column it's mission accomplished.

    Finally an intelligent response. It is pretty obvious that it was just round 1 and a lot of water will go under the bridge before we know who comes out best and whether it ends the union or not. May at least is more intelligent than the Bullingdon duffers and keeps her powder dry rather than running away at the mouth .
    Whatever our politics, whatever our background, I would hope that most of us would agree to cheer on May so long as she continues to show up the country's foolishness in having once entrusted our future to a bunch of Eton educated toffs...
    Yes - she is like a breath of fresh air (though I exclude David Cameron as he was a very good PM)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,129
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely May's comments today are about making the SNP be the people who walk away from the negotiations rather than giving them a veto. May has said the SNP will need to agree with the initial UK Brexit strategy. But by definition the SNP can never do that. May can't alter the path to a second referendum by she can appear hyper reasonable before it happens. It's a perfectly sensible thing to do.

    All the smart people on this forum can see it - Nicola in theory should just declare a 2nd ref now. But she'll have to go through the motions nevertheless ;) !
    Not at all sure she will do that - so much has changed and if she loses another referendum she is toast and so is Independence
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
    I don't think Iowa, N.Hampshire and Nevada would go to Hillary if the election was today, the state poll average has neither of them in a lead of greater than 2%, those states are in the toss up category.

    But the prophet of electoral doom is sleepwalking into another doom:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

    Nate Silver's own model now gives Trump a 45% chance of winning the election if it where held today.
    I give Trump 60%, so not that far.
    But the betting markets are sleepwalking towards a surprise for them result again.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
    Trump can only win if some Jihadi does something - especially in a swing state !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sat behind Michael Crick and Faisal Islam in departures at Edinburgh airport, passed George Robertson on the way

    They can't use the lounges ?
    Robertson to be fair was outside his Range Rover, Crick is on the same plane as me, presently reading about football
    Has he taken the free bevvy
    Not as yet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
    I don't think Iowa, N.Hampshire and Nevada would go to Hillary if the election was today, the state poll average has neither of them in a lead of greater than 2%, those states are in the toss up category.

    But the prophet of electoral doom is sleepwalking into another doom:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

    Nate Silver's own model now gives Trump a 45% of winning the election if it where held today.
    I give Trump 60%, so not that far.
    But the betting markets are sleepwalking towards a surprise for them result again.
    Hillary leads in Iowa and NH and Nevada by more than she does nationally, in Ohio and Florida by less
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
    Trump can only win if some Jihadi does something - especially in a swing state !
    Maybe though that is not impossible
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
    You're very dim.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    IanB2 said:

    perdix said:

    FF43 said:

    surbiton said:

    My purchase costs have gone up by 10% in the last 3 weeks. From £ 0.75/EUR to £0.84/EUR.

    I have just announced a complete stop to any new spending. I hope to avoid any redundancies. I managed to do that in 2009/2010.

    Since we do not have any UK competitors, all of us are in the same boat. So, let's see, who puts up prices first.

    Some of our prices are going up. The government is switching the money taps on. We're seeing the return of inflation. We're just not used to it. Wages will likely not rise, so we will inflate our way through Brexit by reducing real wages.
    Is the inflation being caused by the weakness of sterling, caused by Brexit?
    The weakness of sterling is delivering a one-off inflationary shock to the economy, as everything we import, from a lot of our food, through to components and fuel, is suddenly 10%+ more expensive. What matters from now is the extent to which this shock is absorbed, or brushed off, as against becoming the start of an inflationary spiral, with rising prices and rising wages feeding upon each other, leading toward rising interest rates (which then brings home to roost all the problems we have been able to ignore during the past near-decade of free money). Absorbing a shock of 10% without getting into such a spiral isn't impossible - but it does mean sharing such a loss of wealth between our workers and our businesses.
    S&P's report had UK inflation hitting 2.2% next year. Carney might actually be able to stop writing those mea culpa letters to the Treasury for a while.

    *edit* Reading the May BoE Inflation report is funny in retrospect. They didn't have a clue what would happen on Brexit, and used an awful lot of words to say so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
    I don't think Iowa, N.Hampshire and Nevada would go to Hillary if the election was today, the state poll average has neither of them in a lead of greater than 2%, those states are in the toss up category.

    But the prophet of electoral doom is sleepwalking into another doom:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

    Nate Silver's own model now gives Trump a 45% chance of winning the election if it where held today.
    I give Trump 60%, so not that far.
    But the betting markets are sleepwalking towards a surprise for them result again.
    What caused that huge Trump surge?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
    You're very dim.
    Clearly truth hurts.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    kle4 said:

    To go back to Faisal Islam's question:

    So is there a version of Brexit that David Davis, Fox and Boris can negotiate from 27 EU nations, that Sturgeon & Scotland will accept?

    The answer is no. Not with those three and what they will go for, and thus implicitly what May wants to go for.

    Theresa will control what The Three Brexiteers come up with - she will have to take ultimate responsibility. Sturgeon will be very politely consulted but final approval will be by Theresa, as Prime Minster of the United Kingdom.
    As Cameron said, the SNP has plenty of powers, it should stop whingeing and start governing.
    As for Faisal Islam (God help us) a less cynical attitude such as "World War 3" would lift the tone of public discourse.

  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Andy JS

    Thanks for the concern downthread. Unfortunately still no news. A fairly distant acquaintance, but still.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    perdix said:

    kle4 said:

    To go back to Faisal Islam's question:

    So is there a version of Brexit that David Davis, Fox and Boris can negotiate from 27 EU nations, that Sturgeon & Scotland will accept?

    The answer is no. Not with those three and what they will go for, and thus implicitly what May wants to go for.

    Theresa will control what The Three Brexiteers come up with - she will have to take ultimate responsibility. Sturgeon will be very politely consulted but final approval will be by Theresa, as Prime Minster of the United Kingdom.
    As Cameron said, the SNP has plenty of powers, it should stop whingeing and start governing.
    As for Faisal Islam (God help us) a less cynical attitude such as "World War 3" would lift the tone of public discourse.

    Faisal also just boarded the plane before making his way to some seats further back saying 'I have been invited to the country house and it would be rude not to go'. The mind boggles!
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    HYUFD said:

    May suggests no Article 50 until a deal regarding Scotland can done, maybe some form of EFTA plus

    We can call it "I Can't Believe It's Not EU Membership!"
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    perdix said:

    FF43 said:

    surbiton said:

    My purchase costs have gone up by 10% in the last 3 weeks. From £ 0.75/EUR to £0.84/EUR.
    .

    Is the inflation being caused by the weakness of sterling, caused by Brexit?
    The weakness of sterling is delivering a one-off inflationary shock to the economy, as everything we import, from a lot of our food, through to components and fuel, is suddenly 10%+ more expensive. What matters from now is the extent to which this shock is absorbed, or brushed off, as against becoming the start of an inflationary spiral, with rising prices and rising wages feeding upon each other, leading toward rising interest rates (which then brings home to roost all the problems we have been able to ignore during the past near-decade of free money). Absorbing a shock of 10% without getting into such a spiral isn't impossible - but it does mean sharing such a loss of wealth between our workers and our businesses.
    S&P's report had UK inflation hitting 2.2% next year. Carney might actually be able to stop writing those mea culpa letters to the Treasury for a while.

    *edit* Reading the May BoE Inflation report is funny in retrospect. They didn't have a clue what would happen on Brexit, and used an awful lot of words to say so.
    Yes, a modest level of inflation can actually be seen as quite a good thing, not least because it deflates the value of the government's debt burden. Japan has been trying to get some inflation going for the best part of twenty years, with very little success. The problem, however, is that if the UK is having inflation when everyone else isn't, our currency will depreciate still further. If our economy were largely insular, this wouldn't be a particular problem (at least in the short term) but, of course, despite what some of the Brexiteers might wish, the UK is actually heavily integrated with the world's economy - even our exported manufacturing relies heavily upon raw materials and components that are in turn imported. Rising inflation coupled with falling currency would be taking the first few steps towards a Zimbabwian economy, which isn't where anyone would want to be.

    Therefore the best position now is that both companies and workers accept that we are going to be worse off for the next year to two, without demanding higher wages or higher prices in compensation. Meanwhile we put our faith in May, Boris, Fox and Davis to deliver a Brexit that safeguards our economic position going forward (either accepting free movement into the bargain, or by finding a way to compensate for the significant contribution that in-migration has been making to our economy).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716

    HYUFD said:

    May suggests no Article 50 until a deal regarding Scotland can done, maybe some form of EFTA plus

    We can call it "I Can't Believe It's Not EU Membership!"
    Sounds an ideal slogan!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The Three Brexiteers - bet you've been waiting all week to say that :lol:
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
    You're very dim.
    Clearly truth hurts.
    Post the quote and we'll all see what the truth is won't we?

  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    I thought school hadn't broken up yet/forgotten to take your meds? Etc etc.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
    Trump can only win if some Jihadi does something - especially in a swing state !
    Maybe though that is not impossible
    That could be why they are concentrating their attacks in France as there is a real chance of a far right victory.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
    Same arguments were used in 08 and 12 to determine that WWC would flock to the polls to oppose Obama.

    Oooppps.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    pbr2013 said:

    From last thread, on Michel Houellebecq's Submission: I would recommend anyone trying to think through the whole LePen, nativism and Muslim issue read this book. Especially if thinking about the prospect of major civil disturbances.

    Disturbing and from a man many consider France's premier enfant terrible, but very thought provoking and highly plausible.

    *Reconstucts my response FPT*

    I was unimpressed by Houellebecq's earlier work. I thought that JG Ballard covered similar ground better in the 70s. But Submission weirded me out a bit. I always thought that a lot of islamism stems from sexual frustration/sadism. Submission, quite powerfully puts the case that the whole point of the whole business is (in the West) the restoration of patriarchy. In its proper sense, as in women and girls being returned to full chattel status, rather than in the Western feminist vision of an abstract tool of oppression. Deeply creepy.
    I think also though there is a theme about the loss of religion in secular France, slow death of Catholicism (and from that the whole of traditional french civilisation), which Houellebecq worries about (at least in this book, through his character). Practicing Muslims have something many French don't, a point in their lives, seems to one of the arguments.
    Yes, there is that as well. Good novel. Highly topical and thought provoking.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
    You're very dim.
    Clearly truth hurts.
    Post the quote and we'll all see what the truth is won't we?

    I'm not the one talking about any quote, you are. You post it if you like.

    I am talking about Theresa Mays support for the existence of Sharia in the UK.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
    This is Trump, not the sort of credible politicians that ran the Leave campaign. We are probably near his peak given that it is just before the convention, after that and the Democratic convention and there is always a switch. Unlike Leave, which had a credible number of people on the side of the less well off Trump hasn't got a broad enough base to tap into that, there is just so much ammunition against him regarding his economic ideas. It's the phoney war at the moment, none of this had been really discussed.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
    You're very dim.
    Clearly truth hurts.
    Post the quote and we'll all see what the truth is won't we?

    I'm not the one talking about any quote, you are. You post it if you like.

    I am talking about Theresa Mays support for the existence of Sharia in the UK.
    Last post on the matter, as you're too dim to understand.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
    Same arguments were used in 08 and 12 to determine that WWC would flock to the polls to oppose Obama.

    Oooppps.
    Although the WWC flocking to the polls worked for Leave, am getting a similar vibe about the Presidential election. I simply don't think think the pollsters will be picking them up.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
    You're very dim.
    Clearly truth hurts.
    Post the quote and we'll all see what the truth is won't we?

    I'm not the one talking about any quote, you are. You post it if you like.

    I am talking about Theresa Mays support for the existence of Sharia in the UK.
    Last post on the matter, as you're too dim to understand.
    So you aren't going to post your precious quote after all?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    After only 3 days of talks, the EU comes up with a diplomatic masterstroke, talk about China but without mentioning China. (A task I attempted in this post, but clearly failed miserably. It's tricky stuff).

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-eu-idUSKCN0ZV1TS?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=578925cd04d30142d887e137&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    Are you actually going to attempt to claim she doesn't or are you just going to throw insults?
    You're very dim.
    Clearly truth hurts.
    Post the quote and we'll all see what the truth is won't we?

    I'm not the one talking about any quote, you are. You post it if you like.

    I am talking about Theresa Mays support for the existence of Sharia in the UK.
    Last post on the matter, as you're too dim to understand.
    So you aren't going to post your precious quote after all?
    Let me help you both:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/independent-review-into-sharia-law-launched
  • saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited July 2016
    JackW said:
    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
    Same arguments were used in 08 and 12 to determine that WWC would flock to the polls to oppose Obama.

    Oooppps.
    Lol Trump is not Romney. Romney and McCain are the establishment candidates, no one who hasnt voted since the '80s are suddenly going to vote for them plus the financial crash had just happed people are not going to vote for change (when I say change I mean a revolution like Brexit) in the middle of a shit storm they vote for it when things calm down.

    Hilary could still win but she needs to connect with wwc ex industrial city America, especially with Trump's VP choice.
  • John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Thrak said:

    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
    This is Trump, not the sort of credible politicians that ran the Leave campaign. We are probably near his peak given that it is just before the convention, after that and the Democratic convention and there is always a switch. Unlike Leave, which had a credible number of people on the side of the less well off Trump hasn't got a broad enough base to tap into that, there is just so much ammunition against him regarding his economic ideas. It's the phoney war at the moment, none of this had been really discussed.
    But Trump VP choice is a way if trying to answer his credibility issues.


    Plus I remember people laughing off Nigel, Boris et al.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
    Ah, I misapprehended your objection. It's not so much her words, rather the existence of Sharia councils and her implicit endorsement of those councils. Fair enough. Got you now.

    I don't have a position because I don't know enough about them. I am but one person.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited July 2016
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.

    I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?

    Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.

    They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.
    Same arguments were used in 08 and 12 to determine that WWC would flock to the polls to oppose Obama.

    Oooppps.
    Lol Trump is not Romney. Romney and McCain are the establishment candidates, no one who hasnt voted since the '80s are suddenly going to vote for them plus the financial crash had just happed people are not going to vote for change (when I say change I mean a revolution like Brexit) in the middle of a shit storm they vote for it when things calm down.

    Hilary could still win but she needs to connect with wwc ex industrial city America, especially with Trump's VP choice.
    Trump is the establishment candidate, not the Republican establishment but the white rich capitalist establishment nonetheless. His appeal to the wwc is skin deep and he's not a good enough politician to hold the line on that against his real background.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.

    Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
    U can ban shariah councils if u want, but people will seek advice from who ever they want. Which is essentially what shariah councils do.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016
    Intereating comment on BBC website asking why France...one reason given by BBC..."The inability of France to integrate large number of immigrants"....NOT...as I think others might suggest...the inability of large numbers of immigrants to integrate.

    SeanT was saying last night things will finally change. The noises so far are we are back on the usual cycle of excuses already, it just gets quicker every time.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I hear that Maomentum has attempted to take over the Brighton and Hove CLP. These militants are further validating the concerns of the PLP by the day.

    I've just done a quick wiki regarding Michel Houellebecq's Submission. Right now I don't know what to think of it. I'll also say reading the conversations about it on here, I find it the commentary on Western feminism's idea of patriarchy as 'abstract' interesting. Sometimes I find that we in the Western world are fine with commentating on extreme manifestations of sexism and misogyny from non-Western ideologies and countries, but continue to have misgivings about having the same conversations regarding sexism and misogyny in our own countries. But I know this is PB, and I know my comments will go down about as well as a Kenneth Clark speech on staying in the EU.

    Mike Pence's reported views on abortion is one of the key reasons why I continue to fear the consequences of a Trump presidency.
  • John_M said:

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
    Ah, I misapprehended your objection. It's not so much her words, rather the existence of Sharia councils and her implicit endorsement of those councils. Fair enough. Got you now.

    I don't have a position because I don't know enough about them. I am but one person.
    Actually it was other posters on this site who seem to have a huge problem in anyone implicitily criticising the Blessed Theresa because of her apparent endorsement .I once called her Sharia May and got jumped on and it would appear brokenwheel also suffered the same fate.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    Lol Trump is not Romney. Romney and McCain are the establishment candidates, no one who hasnt voted since the '80s are suddenly going to vote for them plus the financial crash had just happed people are not going to vote for change (when I say change I mean a revolution like Brexit) in the middle of a shit storm they vote for it when things calm down.

    Hilary could still win but she needs to connect with wwc ex industrial city America, especially with Trump's VP choice.

    The WWC is a diminishing demographic, the more so in swing states and a group that in the primaries showed no exceptional fervour for Trump.

    Further for every WWC that Trump might attract he is losing college educated whites that Clinton is polling well in. Trump will not win by relying on WWC.

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited July 2016
    John_M said:
    There are indications of a named individual who spent time with an Islamist group in Libya that is heavily stocked with North Africans including French citizens of North African origin.

    Suggestions is that its the same guy as drove the truck last night.

    Still no IS claim. Maybe not one of theirs.




  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Missed this one, Perry has resigned as Rail Minister.

    I walked past her once outside Eastleigh train station.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    nunu said:

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
    U can ban shariah councils if u want, but people will seek advice from who ever they want. Which is essentially what shariah councils do.
    I generally try and speak from personal experience; in this area our migrants are overwhelmingly from the A8 countries. On checking (2011 census numbers), we have more Buddhists than Muslims in Herefordshire, and not many of either. Hence, no opinion either way.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited July 2016
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    JackW said:
    Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

    I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.
    Trump is weak with the religious.
    I think Trump went with Pence to:

    A. Kill NeverTrump.
    B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

    Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
    And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

    The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

    If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.
    Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida
    I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
    Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.

    Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.

    And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
    Iowa, N Hampshire should lean to Hillary, she will probably win Nevada too
    I don't think Iowa, N.Hampshire and Nevada would go to Hillary if the election was today, the state poll average has neither of them in a lead of greater than 2%, those states are in the toss up category.

    But the prophet of electoral doom is sleepwalking into another doom:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

    Nate Silver's own model now gives Trump a 45% chance of winning the election if it where held today.
    I give Trump 60%, so not that far.
    But the betting markets are sleepwalking towards a surprise for them result again.
    Just looking at his site and he gives Cliinton 64% chance and Trump 36%, is there a different forecast?

    EDIT: Found it, but it's just a nowcast.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    "Trump is the establishment candidate, not the Republican establishment but the white rich capitalist establishment nonetheless"

    Everything you just said was also said about Nigel Farage.

    I hope ur right, but fear the polls are underestimating him.

    Also Leave won Luton, Slough and Birmingham so I wonder if Trump could win unexpectedly enough votes amongst ethnic minorities who are also under polled.
  • John_M said:

    nunu said:

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
    U can ban shariah councils if u want, but people will seek advice from who ever they want. Which is essentially what shariah councils do.
    I generally try and speak from personal experience; in this area our migrants are overwhelmingly from the A8 countries. On checking (2011 census numbers), we have more Buddhists than Muslims in Herefordshire, and not many of either. Hence, no opinion either way.
    The problem is that Sharia law is not compatible with UK law.

    For example,it does not recognise the equality of women before the law.; it permits polygamy;does not recognise a woman's testimony as having the same value a a man's; does not allow women to inherit on equal terms etc.
    Hoe can you have a parallel legal system operating on these bases in a Western democracy?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited July 2016

    Intereating comment on BBC website asking why France...one reason given by BBC..."The inability of France to integrate large number of immigrants"....NOT...as I think others might suggest...the inability of large numbers of immigrants to integrate.

    SeanT was saying last night things will finally change. The noises so far are we are back on the usual cycle of excuses already, it just gets quicker every time.

    There are many radicalised British Muslims, including converts.

    Cast your mind back to Harrods, Birmingham, Guildford, Hyde Park. Terrorist outrages but nothing fundamental changed, perhaps not even attitudes (there were negotiations throughout the period).

    When radical Islam came along, we joked (!) that we would like a return to such Ordinary Decent Terrorists as PIRA.

    I don't think it is an issue of integration. It's fine not to integrate - go to orthodox Jewish areas for a lesson in non-integration. The issue is the desire to establish an alternative political and religions system (of course one and the same, with Islam).

    The fight is not at our borders, but in the espousal of the values and culture we believe superior to Islam.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    nunu said:

    "Trump is the establishment candidate, not the Republican establishment but the white rich capitalist establishment nonetheless"

    Everything you just said was also said about Nigel Farage.

    I hope ur right, but fear the polls are underestimating him.

    Also Leave won Luton, Slough and Birmingham so I wonder if Trump could win unexpectedly enough votes amongst ethnic minorities who are also under polled.

    Farage did not get the WWC vote, that's from people like Stuart, Hoey, Mann and probably Corbyn. This is an election, not a referendum, Trump does not have anything like the breadth of different politicians supporting him that would allow him to be both what Republican voters and the wwc want. It's also a reason for May not to go for an election, I've talked myself to many who voted leave but who will vote labour (because of spending and services).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    AndyJS said:

    Missed this one, Perry has resigned as Rail Minister.

    I walked past her once outside Eastleigh train station.
    It seems that will be her one claim to fame.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562

    I hear that Maomentum has attempted to take over the Brighton and Hove CLP. These militants are further validating the concerns of the PLP by the day.

    I've just done a quick wiki regarding Michel Houellebecq's Submission. Right now I don't know what to think of it. I'll also say reading the conversations about it on here, I find it the commentary on Western feminism's idea of patriarchy as 'abstract' interesting. Sometimes I find that we in the Western world are fine with commentating on extreme manifestations of sexism and misogyny from non-Western ideologies and countries, but continue to have misgivings about having the same conversations regarding sexism and misogyny in our own countries. But I know this is PB, and I know my comments will go down about as well as a Kenneth Clark speech on staying in the EU.

    Mike Pence's reported views on abortion is one of the key reasons why I continue to fear the consequences of a Trump presidency.

    I doubt it would be controversial to say that, as an author, Houellebecq suffers from misogyny!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    TOPPING said:

    Intereating comment on BBC website asking why France...one reason given by BBC..."The inability of France to integrate large number of immigrants"....NOT...as I think others might suggest...the inability of large numbers of immigrants to integrate.

    SeanT was saying last night things will finally change. The noises so far are we are back on the usual cycle of excuses already, it just gets quicker every time.

    There are many radicalised British Muslims, including converts.

    Cast your mind back to Harrods, Birmingham, Guildford, Hyde Park. Terrorist outrages but nothing fundamental changed, perhaps not even attitudes (there were negotiations throughout the period).

    When radical Islam came along, we joked (!) that we would like a return to such Ordinary Decent Terrorists as PIRA.

    I don't think it is an issue of integration. It's fine not to integrate - go to orthodox Jewish areas for a lesson in non-integration. The issue is the desire to establish an alternative political and religions system (of course one and the same, with Islam).

    The fight is not at our borders, but in the espousal of the values and culture we believe superior to Islam.
    There is also this lazy narrative that it is only poor unintegrated marginalised individuals involved, which as lazy and inaccurate caricature as all leavers in the brexit vote are thick little Englanders living in poor areas.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apparently the attacker managed to get past police blocks by saying he was selling ice-cream. In a huge truck?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the attacker managed to get past police blocks by saying he was selling ice-cream. In a huge truck?

    Nor does it appear to be a refrigerated trailer so he couldn't be delivering.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I hear that Maomentum has attempted to take over the Brighton and Hove CLP. These militants are further validating the concerns of the PLP by the day.

    I've just done a quick wiki regarding Michel Houellebecq's Submission. Right now I don't know what to think of it. I'll also say reading the conversations about it on here, I find it the commentary on Western feminism's idea of patriarchy as 'abstract' interesting. Sometimes I find that we in the Western world are fine with commentating on extreme manifestations of sexism and misogyny from non-Western ideologies and countries, but continue to have misgivings about having the same conversations regarding sexism and misogyny in our own countries. But I know this is PB, and I know my comments will go down about as well as a Kenneth Clark speech on staying in the EU.

    Mike Pence's reported views on abortion is one of the key reasons why I continue to fear the consequences of a Trump presidency.

    I doubt it would be controversial to say that, as an author, Houellebecq suffers from misogyny!!
    Really? I'm not familiar with his work tbh. In fact, I only discovered him as an author today!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    Intereating comment on BBC website asking why France...one reason given by BBC..."The inability of France to integrate large number of immigrants"....NOT...as I think others might suggest...the inability of large numbers of immigrants to integrate.

    SeanT was saying last night things will finally change. The noises so far are we are back on the usual cycle of excuses already, it just gets quicker every time.

    There are many radicalised British Muslims, including converts.

    Cast your mind back to Harrods, Birmingham, Guildford, Hyde Park. Terrorist outrages but nothing fundamental changed, perhaps not even attitudes (there were negotiations throughout the period).

    When radical Islam came along, we joked (!) that we would like a return to such Ordinary Decent Terrorists as PIRA.

    I don't think it is an issue of integration. It's fine not to integrate - go to orthodox Jewish areas for a lesson in non-integration. The issue is the desire to establish an alternative political and religions system (of course one and the same, with Islam).

    The fight is not at our borders, but in the espousal of the values and culture we believe superior to Islam.
    There is also this lazy narrative that it is only poor unintegrated marginalised individuals involved, which as lazy and inaccurate caricature as all leavers in the brexit vote are thick little Englanders living in poor areas.
    Indeed. Those latter not all living in poor areas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    John_M said:
    In other news Corbyn is probably a Socialist
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,292

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    Agreed. Logically, we would live in just as divided a nation if it had been 52-48 the other way, but this impression never seems to come across.
    The media also seems to be pushing the narrative that everyone is very sad about the result of the referendum. Logically, this can't be the case: whatever the result, more people are going to be happy with it than sad. But that's not the impression being pushed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562

    Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.

    "people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"

    Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.

    What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,069
    edited July 2016
    Evening all :)

    Stodge presents "News from the East (End)"

    Last night Labour successfully defended its seat at the Forest Gate North by-election when Anamul Islam polled 1150 votes beating the Green into second place by 469 votes. The Conservatives were third and the Liberal Democrats a poor fourth.

    Forest Gate North has always been Labour but in 2006 its vote share fell sharply as Respect came from nowhere to take second with the Green candidate third and the Conservatives fourth. The same sole Green candidate contested in 2010 but with the weight of GE turnout Labour smashed up the seat winning 70% of the vote.

    2014 was more complex as the two Green candidates narrowly held off the Conservatives. The same Green lady had fought all three by elections but they had a new candidate last night and on the surface seemed to do very well.

    I had set a barometer for a satisfactory Labour vote at 50% and Islam got 52.5%, a drop of 5% on 2014 but okay and in tune with the Islington result last night. The Green polled 31%, 17% up on the 2014 result but this included the TUSC and Communist candidates who didn't contest yesterday. It seems the Greens hoovered up a lot of the anti-Labour vote but couldn't a) make any impact on the Conservative vote or b) make much headway into Labour's own vote.

    The Conservative vote was about the same as 2014 and to be fair they haven't managed second here since 2002. The Liberal Democrats haven't always fought the seat but the candidate withdrew for personal reasons after close of nominations so though he was on the ballot paper, the party did nothing in the seat.

    Turnout was 21.4%.

    Let's be honest - Labour can afford a 5% drop in Newham with ease but the Greens might feel this is their best prospect of getting onto the Council but Labour will know it as well.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:
    I reckon a huge aliya of French Jews to Israel is imminent. Great and insightful essay though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    MikeK said:

    AndyJS said:
    I reckon a huge aliya of French Jews to Israel is imminent. Great and insightful essay though.
    Already happening.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931

    John_M said:

    nunu said:

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
    U can ban shariah councils if u want, but people will seek advice from who ever they want. Which is essentially what shariah councils do.
    I generally try and speak from personal experience; in this area our migrants are overwhelmingly from the A8 countries. On checking (2011 census numbers), we have more Buddhists than Muslims in Herefordshire, and not many of either. Hence, no opinion either way.
    The problem is that Sharia law is not compatible with UK law.

    For example,it does not recognise the equality of women before the law.; it permits polygamy;does not recognise a woman's testimony as having the same value a a man's; does not allow women to inherit on equal terms etc.
    Hoe can you have a parallel legal system operating on these bases in a Western democracy?
    There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.

    There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    nunu said:

    John_M said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    pbr2013 said:

    saddened said:

    So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

    This is going to end well.

    Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?
    "Sharia" May? What an idiot.
    Look in the mirror.
    Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.
    She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.
    You're really very dim.
    it was all over the internet on 29th May 2016 - she said Sharia law was "very beneficial" You wouldn't have to be very bright to find it yourself.
    I linked the actual government statement from the 26th, not five minutes ago. Everything else is reportage. Her remarks seem entirely uncontentious to me.
    Really?- in what respects would you say having Sharia law councils operating in the UK is beneficial to our country?
    U can ban shariah councils if u want, but people will seek advice from who ever they want. Which is essentially what shariah councils do.
    I generally try and speak from personal experience; in this area our migrants are overwhelmingly from the A8 countries. On checking (2011 census numbers), we have more Buddhists than Muslims in Herefordshire, and not many of either. Hence, no opinion either way.
    The problem is that Sharia law is not compatible with UK law.

    For example,it does not recognise the equality of women before the law.; it permits polygamy;does not recognise a woman's testimony as having the same value a a man's; does not allow women to inherit on equal terms etc.
    Hoe can you have a parallel legal system operating on these bases in a Western democracy?
    There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.

    There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.
    I assume these people can't opt out of our criminal law system? Just contract disputes and the like?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".

    Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.

    Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.
    Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

    But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
This discussion has been closed.