politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So the changeover begins
Comments
-
If I had to guess, fair odds for Corbyn to win would be 1.6-1.8. So 1.9-2.0 seems too close to the fair odds and it seems riskier than general election bets (do Labour have other Black Swans to come? http://www.comres.co.uk/corbyn-black-swan-or-sitting-duck/)Pulpstar said:
You might be able to get over Evens on Betfair.Essexit said:Lots of speculation about what Theresa's speech means. Frankly I doubt her rhetoric now will translate into much more than continued tinkering at the edges à la Cameron, the only thing that came across clearly from it was a kind of bland centrism; not necessarily a bad thing but she won't be a radical or serious reformer of any kind.
Also, PaddyPower is offering 10/11 on Corbyn to win the leadership election. Judging by Facebook and Twitter it's now widely known that Corbynites can get round the £25 cost by joining Unite for a much smaller sum, and people are really wound up about the NEC trying to move the goalposts. Would anyone care to talk me out of putting £50 or so down?
GE2015 had seats with real odds of (I thought) 1.05-1.10 offering odds of 1.33-1.50 about 24 hours before the declaration. Plus the SNP phenomenan. It seemed nicely low risk 'betting', more like 'investment'. The next GE can't come soon enough.
If you're a high risk gambler, sorry to have put you off!0 -
Boris Johnson for HOME ?!?!
He's entirely unsuited to the role.0 -
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
0 -
I said earlier. It's Blair because I can imagine he would want it and the fun it would causeTheScreamingEagles said:The hereditary peerage is for Andy Coulson.
0 -
That's not really resigning in my book. Formally it is, but he's presumably been advised he's getting nothing (or nothing worthwhile) by May's team, so it's not a positive decision to resign, it's a flimsy attempt to save face and both sides to pretend there wasn't about to be an acrimonious sacking.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Resigning before being sackedkle4 said:
Is that the same kind of 'resignation' as when football managers leave 'by mutual consent' rather than being sacked?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Resigned from governmentTheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
Boulton reckoning Rudd to foreign and Boris to home. That would be hugely surprising.0
-
Is there a guillotine in the back garden?JackW said:Amber Rudd into No 10
0 -
@JDMcCaffreySKY: Interestingly we are back to HM Government announces via press release rather than via Twitter.0
-
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.ydoethur said:
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
0 -
Agree with youkle4 said:
That's not really resigning in my book. Formally it is, but he's presumably been advised he's getting nothing (or nothing worthwhile) by May's team, so it's not a positive decision to resign, it's a flimsy attempt to save face and both sides to pretend there wasn't about to be an acrimonious sacking.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Resigning before being sackedkle4 said:
Is that the same kind of 'resignation' as when football managers leave 'by mutual consent' rather than being sacked?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Resigned from governmentTheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
ahem (buffs nails).Slackbladder said:If greening gets home sec, first openly gay holder of one of the great offices of state?
0 -
Surely he couldn't be given a Peerage one week after Chilcot.eek said:
I said earlier. It's Blair because I can imagine he would want it and the fun it would causeTheScreamingEagles said:The hereditary peerage is for Andy Coulson.
0 -
TSE said otherwise. Mortimer I also believe you forecast a LEAVE victory?Mortimer said:
I have been saying that would happen for several months...TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked
0 -
-
Moderators, was there an article on the results of the PB competition on the referendum?0
-
LOL, class!Scott_P said:@JeremyClarkson: Oh for fuck's sake. May and Hammond? Really? We will end up thick and lost.
0 -
Maybe May thinks it's a way to further boost her own reputation for competence. When Boris crashes and burns in the job within 3 months, she can turn round and say "now you know how great I was to survive there 6 years".Pulpstar said:Boris Johnson for HOME ?!?!
He's entirely unsuited to the role.0 -
Trump moving in. I'm back into a 4 figure cashout situation.
There's speculation on PEC [not at all a Trump-friendly site] that there's been a genuine shift to him, and he could be ahead in a week or two.
He certainly continues to outperform in the swing-states, as I have noted for several months.
A popular vote win for the Crooked One, but an EC loss also remains far more likely than the reverse.0 -
Amber Rudd - Home Secretary with Grayling as Foreign Secretary or vice versa ?0
-
Proper awkward if Rudd and Johnson are sitting outside May's office together.0
-
Johnson could be offered DPM....0
-
Damien Green into Downing Street0
-
-
Boris at the home office. What the fuck? Seems like a crazy way to run a government.0
-
@JasonGroves1: Boris Johnson + Amber Rudd in No 10 for talks on Cabinet jobs - will he offer to give her a lift home?0
-
The odds on Truro (1-4) and some other 1-8 shots were particularly mad.rural_voter said:
If I had to guess, fair odds for Corbyn to win would be 1.6-1.8. So 1.9-2.0 seems too close to the fair odds and it seems riskier than general election bets (do Labour have other Black Swans to come? http://www.comres.co.uk/corbyn-black-swan-or-sitting-duck/)Pulpstar said:
You might be able to get over Evens on Betfair.Essexit said:Lots of speculation about what Theresa's speech means. Frankly I doubt her rhetoric now will translate into much more than continued tinkering at the edges à la Cameron, the only thing that came across clearly from it was a kind of bland centrism; not necessarily a bad thing but she won't be a radical or serious reformer of any kind.
Also, PaddyPower is offering 10/11 on Corbyn to win the leadership election. Judging by Facebook and Twitter it's now widely known that Corbynites can get round the £25 cost by joining Unite for a much smaller sum, and people are really wound up about the NEC trying to move the goalposts. Would anyone care to talk me out of putting £50 or so down?
GE2015 had seats with real odds of (I thought) 1.05-1.10 offering odds of 1.33-1.50 about 24 hours before the declaration. Plus the SNP phenomenan. It seemed nicely low risk 'betting', more like 'investment'. The next GE can't come soon enough.
If you're a high risk gambler, sorry to have put you off!0 -
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?RobD said:
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.ydoethur said:
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?0 -
I was just having an early meltdown, my apologies.SimonStClare said:
Calm down dear, Boris is merely returning the dagger to No10...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:If she makes Boris CoE, I am emigrating.
She'll either stitch him up with Brexit or Home - or get him out of the country with For Sec.
Hope Justine Greening gets a decent post, I think she's one of the most interesting people the Tories have.0 -
Boris would be better in a "symbolism" job like "Deputy Prime Minister" I'd have thought...0
-
I suggested that a couple of weeks ago. He'd suit a role like that.AndyJS said:0 -
Not a bad shout. Surely not Home Secretary or brexit. Got to be DPM or foreign.oxfordsimon said:Johnson could be offered DPM....
0 -
Perhaps she's just going to make him wait in the corridor for five hours and, when it's all over, offer him the opportunity to vacuum up and turn off the lights?Danny565 said:
Maybe May thinks it's a way to further boost her own reputation for competence. When Boris crashes and burns in the job within 3 months, she can turn round and say "now you know how great I was to survive there 6 years".Pulpstar said:Boris Johnson for HOME ?!?!
He's entirely unsuited to the role.0 -
Boris SoS4Brexit?0
-
No, they cannot automatically - Royal peers have hereditary peerages and so would need to be elected in a hereditary peer by-election.ydoethur said:
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?RobD said:
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.ydoethur said:
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?0 -
For US voters it must be an awful choice. Mrs Clinton vs Mr Trump. You'd be looking for a third option.RodCrosby said:Trump moving in. I'm back into a 4 figure cashout situation.
There's speculation on PEC [not at all a Trump-friendly site] that there's been a genuine shift to him, and he could be ahead in a week or two.
He certainly continues to outperform in the swing-states, as I have noted for several months.
A popular vote win for the Crooked One, but an EC loss also remains far more likely than the reverse.
0 -
David Davis in Downing Street?0
-
I did. But on a much lower turnout, it must be said.TCPoliticalBetting said:
TSE said otherwise. Mortimer I also believe you forecast a LEAVE victory?Mortimer said:
I have been saying that would happen for several months...TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
If Boris is going to the Home Office then the only reason why I can think May is sending him there is to finish him off once and for all. It used to be known as the place where careers die.0
-
I meant before 1999! That was the point of the original comment.CornishBlue said:
No, they cannot automatically - Royal peers have hereditary peerages and so would need to be elected in a hereditary peer by-election.ydoethur said:
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?RobD said:
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.ydoethur said:
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
0 -
Royal peers could sit in the Lords until the 99 Act, at which point Snowden took the offer of a life peerage. Not sure if he sat before the 99 Act. These were the four life peers created:ydoethur said:
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?RobD said:
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.ydoethur said:
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
Toby Austin Richard William Low, 1st Baron Aldington (Baron Low), Frederick James Erroll, 1st Baron Erroll of Hale (Baron Erroll of Kilmun), Francis Aungier Pakenham, 7th Earl of Longford, 1st Baron Pakenham (Baron Pakenham of Cowley) and Antony Armstrong-Jones, 1st Earl of Snowdon (Baron Armstrong-Jones)0 -
Amber Rudd is the same age as Andrea Leadsom but looks about 20 years younger.0
-
DPM or Brexit for Boris.0
-
Do the skills required for Mayor of London not transfer comparatively well to the Home Office?0
-
She does not have much charm and very dull.Paristonda said:Whats the odds for Justine Greening as next Tory leader (or indeed, next PM?) - if she ends up getting an office of state, she will have a decent chunk of experience by the time Theresa stands down in 2023/4, she comes across well on TV, one nation type. And I think the thought of electing a 3rd female PM, second consecutive, and a lesbian, would be really rubbing it in to Labour. In with a good chance?
0 -
Could it be just to say:wasd said:
Perhaps she's just going to make him wait in the corridor for five hours and, when it's all over, offer him the opportunity to vacuum up and turn off the lights?Danny565 said:
Maybe May thinks it's a way to further boost her own reputation for competence. When Boris crashes and burns in the job within 3 months, she can turn round and say "now you know how great I was to survive there 6 years".Pulpstar said:Boris Johnson for HOME ?!?!
He's entirely unsuited to the role.
"Look what you could have won" in a Jim Bowen style....0 -
Ambassador to Turkey?grabcocque said:Boris SoS4Brexit?
0 -
Clinton or Trump? Time to beam back up to the mothership. They should both lose.anotherDave said:
For US voters it must be an awful choice. Mrs Clinton vs Mr Trump. You'd be looking for a third option.RodCrosby said:Trump moving in. I'm back into a 4 figure cashout situation.
There's speculation on PEC [not at all a Trump-friendly site] that there's been a genuine shift to him, and he could be ahead in a week or two.
He certainly continues to outperform in the swing-states, as I have noted for several months.
A popular vote win for the Crooked One, but an EC loss also remains far more likely than the reverse.0 -
Devastating interview for Labour on Channel 4 News at the moment, with Johanna Baxter.0
-
Having got Amber Rudd at £10 @ ~10/1 I have sold off slightly at 1/4. Not a bad result!0
-
0
-
If Boris is Home Secretary, I'll believe that May really wants to kill off his political career.0
-
@allisonpearson: May I be the first to point out that Philip May, the PM's consort, is a dead ringer for Arthur Askey. For younger followers: a comedian.0
-
-
Johanna Baxter, NEC member, extremely upset about the intimidation she's been receiving recently from Corbyn supporters. I've never seen worse publicity for a political party before.RobD said:
Can you give us a brief summary? Watching the BBC feed at the moment.AndyJS said:Devastating interview for Labour on Channel 4 News at the moment.
0 -
Yes, they could (including the Prince of Wales & Earl of Chester) though I don't believe did.ydoethur said:
I meant before 1999! That was the point of the original comment.CornishBlue said:
No, they cannot automatically - Royal peers have hereditary peerages and so would need to be elected in a hereditary peer by-election.ydoethur said:
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?RobD said:
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.ydoethur said:
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
It's a bit like how the Queen could vote in a general election, but doesn't for constitutional convention reasons.0 -
YEEEEEAAAH
Osborne out
Brilliant !0 -
Doesn't Jezz have to hand it over to his deputy? So it'd been Boris Vs Tom Watson (unless Tom has resigned in the last minute?)Thrak said:
PMQs would be fun when May is away, the thought of Johnson vs Corbyn is mind boggling!GIN1138 said:Boris would be better in a "symbolism" job like "Deputy Prime Minister" I'd have thought...
0 -
@seanjonesqc: Hearing beautiful warm comforting rumours that Grieve might be next Lord Chancellor0
-
And of course the new PM knows exactly where all the skeletons and scandals are in the Home Office!jonny83 said:If Boris is going to the Home Office then the only reason why I can think May is sending him there is to finish him off once and for all. It used to be known as the place where careers die.
0 -
Am raising a cup of tea right now...Alanbrooke said:YEEEEEAAAH
Osborne out
Brilliant !0 -
Ay-Thang-Yew!Scott_P said:@allisonpearson: May I be the first to point out that Philip May, the PM's consort, is a dead ringer for Arthur Askey. For younger followers: a comedian.
0 -
wasn't he a very old fashioned comedian?Scott_P said:@allisonpearson: May I be the first to point out that Philip May, the PM's consort, is a dead ringer for Arthur Askey. For younger followers: a comedian.
0 -
BBC - Michael Fallon into Downing Street0
-
@SamuelHortiPW: Just been told by govt source that every single Downing Street adviser has gone. "It's pretty drastic. There's a lot of expertise [there]"0
-
Excellent choiceScott_P said:@seanjonesqc: Hearing beautiful warm comforting rumours that Grieve might be next Lord Chancellor
0 -
If he wants to be taken seriously, then he'll have to prove himself.The_Apocalypse said:If Boris is Home Secretary, I'll believe that May really wants to kill off his political career.
He put himself out there as a more suitable PM than Theresa - now is his chance to put the hard work in to prove he's up to it.
It would hardly be an unfair appointment.0 -
Samuel Horti @SamuelHortiPW 1h1 hour ago
Just been told by govt source that every single Downing Street adviser has gone. "It's pretty drastic. There's a lot of expertise [there]"
If you're going to do it, better it be done immediately.0 -
Michael Fallon entering No. 10.0
-
Please let it be soRobD said:
Excellent choiceScott_P said:@seanjonesqc: Hearing beautiful warm comforting rumours that Grieve might be next Lord Chancellor
0 -
Oh what a glorious thing to be....Scott_P said:@allisonpearson: May I be the first to point out that Philip May, the PM's consort, is a dead ringer for Arthur Askey.
0 -
Surely Fallon to Home or Foreign?0
-
People say the same about May and it didn't hurt. Depends if the next Tory election will be 'continuity' or 'time for a change'TCPoliticalBetting said:
She does not have much charm and very dull.Paristonda said:Whats the odds for Justine Greening as next Tory leader (or indeed, next PM?) - if she ends up getting an office of state, she will have a decent chunk of experience by the time Theresa stands down in 2023/4, she comes across well on TV, one nation type. And I think the thought of electing a 3rd female PM, second consecutive, and a lesbian, would be really rubbing it in to Labour. In with a good chance?
0 -
Ah, yes. Oh well, even that would be fun.GIN1138 said:
Doesn't Jezz have to hand it over to his deputy? So it'd been Boris Vs Tom Watson (unless Tom has resigned in the last minute?)Thrak said:
PMQs would be fun when May is away, the thought of Johnson vs Corbyn is mind boggling!GIN1138 said:Boris would be better in a "symbolism" job like "Deputy Prime Minister" I'd have thought...
0 -
Him or Mogg.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Please let it be soRobD said:
Excellent choiceScott_P said:@seanjonesqc: Hearing beautiful warm comforting rumours that Grieve might be next Lord Chancellor
0 -
No. He was trying to wriggle out of Brexit the other day. No government role.RobD said:
Excellent choiceScott_P said:@seanjonesqc: Hearing beautiful warm comforting rumours that Grieve might be next Lord Chancellor
0 -
-
@tnewtondunn: Breaking: George Osborne was sacked. Theresa May told him she didn't want him in her Cabinet. Wow.0
-
Great news isn't it. I'm afraid I was a far later convert to the OsborneOut campaign; that last budget struck me as awful.Alanbrooke said:YEEEEEAAAH
Osborne out
Brilliant !
When IDS is schooling you in politics...0 -
LOLTheWhiteRabbit said:0 -
-
-
Blimey...Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Breaking: George Osborne was sacked. Theresa May told him she didn't want him in her Cabinet. Wow.
0 -
Minister for Dead Cats. RIP, Larry.Sandpit said:Michael Fallon entering No. 10.
0
