Lots of speculation about what Theresa's speech means. Frankly I doubt her rhetoric now will translate into much more than continued tinkering at the edges à la Cameron, the only thing that came across clearly from it was a kind of bland centrism; not necessarily a bad thing but she won't be a radical or serious reformer of any kind.
Also, PaddyPower is offering 10/11 on Corbyn to win the leadership election. Judging by Facebook and Twitter it's now widely known that Corbynites can get round the £25 cost by joining Unite for a much smaller sum, and people are really wound up about the NEC trying to move the goalposts. Would anyone care to talk me out of putting £50 or so down?
You might be able to get over Evens on Betfair.
If I had to guess, fair odds for Corbyn to win would be 1.6-1.8. So 1.9-2.0 seems too close to the fair odds and it seems riskier than general election bets (do Labour have other Black Swans to come? http://www.comres.co.uk/corbyn-black-swan-or-sitting-duck/)
GE2015 had seats with real odds of (I thought) 1.05-1.10 offering odds of 1.33-1.50 about 24 hours before the declaration. Plus the SNP phenomenan. It seemed nicely low risk 'betting', more like 'investment'. The next GE can't come soon enough.
If you're a high risk gambler, sorry to have put you off!
Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.
George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked
Resigned from government
Is that the same kind of 'resignation' as when football managers leave 'by mutual consent' rather than being sacked?
Resigning before being sacked
That's not really resigning in my book. Formally it is, but he's presumably been advised he's getting nothing (or nothing worthwhile) by May's team, so it's not a positive decision to resign, it's a flimsy attempt to save face and both sides to pretend there wasn't about to be an acrimonious sacking.
Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.
George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked
Resigned from government
Is that the same kind of 'resignation' as when football managers leave 'by mutual consent' rather than being sacked?
Resigning before being sacked
That's not really resigning in my book. Formally it is, but he's presumably been advised he's getting nothing (or nothing worthwhile) by May's team, so it's not a positive decision to resign, it's a flimsy attempt to save face and both sides to pretend there wasn't about to be an acrimonious sacking.
What role that he is suited for would he deign to take? Culture secretary too minimal for his ego? He's not deserving of a truly big job in my opinion.
Maybe May thinks it's a way to further boost her own reputation for competence. When Boris crashes and burns in the job within 3 months, she can turn round and say "now you know how great I was to survive there 6 years".
Trump moving in. I'm back into a 4 figure cashout situation.
There's speculation on PEC [not at all a Trump-friendly site] that there's been a genuine shift to him, and he could be ahead in a week or two.
He certainly continues to outperform in the swing-states, as I have noted for several months. A popular vote win for the Crooked One, but an EC loss also remains far more likely than the reverse.
Lots of speculation about what Theresa's speech means. Frankly I doubt her rhetoric now will translate into much more than continued tinkering at the edges à la Cameron, the only thing that came across clearly from it was a kind of bland centrism; not necessarily a bad thing but she won't be a radical or serious reformer of any kind.
Also, PaddyPower is offering 10/11 on Corbyn to win the leadership election. Judging by Facebook and Twitter it's now widely known that Corbynites can get round the £25 cost by joining Unite for a much smaller sum, and people are really wound up about the NEC trying to move the goalposts. Would anyone care to talk me out of putting £50 or so down?
You might be able to get over Evens on Betfair.
If I had to guess, fair odds for Corbyn to win would be 1.6-1.8. So 1.9-2.0 seems too close to the fair odds and it seems riskier than general election bets (do Labour have other Black Swans to come? http://www.comres.co.uk/corbyn-black-swan-or-sitting-duck/)
GE2015 had seats with real odds of (I thought) 1.05-1.10 offering odds of 1.33-1.50 about 24 hours before the declaration. Plus the SNP phenomenan. It seemed nicely low risk 'betting', more like 'investment'. The next GE can't come soon enough.
If you're a high risk gambler, sorry to have put you off!
The odds on Truro (1-4) and some other 1-8 shots were particularly mad.
Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
Maybe May thinks it's a way to further boost her own reputation for competence. When Boris crashes and burns in the job within 3 months, she can turn round and say "now you know how great I was to survive there 6 years".
Perhaps she's just going to make him wait in the corridor for five hours and, when it's all over, offer him the opportunity to vacuum up and turn off the lights?
Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
No, they cannot automatically - Royal peers have hereditary peerages and so would need to be elected in a hereditary peer by-election.
Trump moving in. I'm back into a 4 figure cashout situation.
There's speculation on PEC [not at all a Trump-friendly site] that there's been a genuine shift to him, and he could be ahead in a week or two.
He certainly continues to outperform in the swing-states, as I have noted for several months. A popular vote win for the Crooked One, but an EC loss also remains far more likely than the reverse.
For US voters it must be an awful choice. Mrs Clinton vs Mr Trump. You'd be looking for a third option.
If Boris is going to the Home Office then the only reason why I can think May is sending him there is to finish him off once and for all. It used to be known as the place where careers die.
Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
No, they cannot automatically - Royal peers have hereditary peerages and so would need to be elected in a hereditary peer by-election.
I meant before 1999! That was the point of the original comment.
Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
Royal peers could sit in the Lords until the 99 Act, at which point Snowden took the offer of a life peerage. Not sure if he sat before the 99 Act. These were the four life peers created:
Toby Austin Richard William Low, 1st Baron Aldington (Baron Low), Frederick James Erroll, 1st Baron Erroll of Hale (Baron Erroll of Kilmun), Francis Aungier Pakenham, 7th Earl of Longford, 1st Baron Pakenham (Baron Pakenham of Cowley) and Antony Armstrong-Jones, 1st Earl of Snowdon (Baron Armstrong-Jones)
If Boris is going to the Home Office then the only reason why I can think May is sending him there is to finish him off once and for all. It used to be known as the place where careers die.
He could approve the use of the water cannon Sadiq Khan is selling...
Whats the odds for Justine Greening as next Tory leader (or indeed, next PM?) - if she ends up getting an office of state, she will have a decent chunk of experience by the time Theresa stands down in 2023/4, she comes across well on TV, one nation type. And I think the thought of electing a 3rd female PM, second consecutive, and a lesbian, would be really rubbing it in to Labour. In with a good chance?
Maybe May thinks it's a way to further boost her own reputation for competence. When Boris crashes and burns in the job within 3 months, she can turn round and say "now you know how great I was to survive there 6 years".
Perhaps she's just going to make him wait in the corridor for five hours and, when it's all over, offer him the opportunity to vacuum up and turn off the lights?
Could it be just to say:
"Look what you could have won" in a Jim Bowen style....
If Boris is going to the Home Office then the only reason why I can think May is sending him there is to finish him off once and for all. It used to be known as the place where careers die.
That would do her no favours at all, and show an error in her judgement.
Trump moving in. I'm back into a 4 figure cashout situation.
There's speculation on PEC [not at all a Trump-friendly site] that there's been a genuine shift to him, and he could be ahead in a week or two.
He certainly continues to outperform in the swing-states, as I have noted for several months. A popular vote win for the Crooked One, but an EC loss also remains far more likely than the reverse.
For US voters it must be an awful choice. Mrs Clinton vs Mr Trump. You'd be looking for a third option.
Clinton or Trump? Time to beam back up to the mothership. They should both lose.
@allisonpearson: May I be the first to point out that Philip May, the PM's consort, is a dead ringer for Arthur Askey. For younger followers: a comedian.
Devastating interview for Labour on Channel 4 News at the moment.
Can you give us a brief summary? Watching the BBC feed at the moment.
Johanna Baxter, NEC member, extremely upset about the intimidation she's been receiving recently from Corbyn supporters. I've never seen worse publicity for a political party before.
Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.
Who was left by then? There can't have been many first generation hereditaries still alive by 1999, given I think there were only four or five after 1965 and only 1 after 1979.
Quite a few royal ones, I think one actually took a life peerage, maybe the husband of Margaret? Caused a bit of a stir.
Royal peers don't sit in the Lords, although those ennobled to marry female ones (Linley, Snowden) presumably can. Were they the ones?
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
No, they cannot automatically - Royal peers have hereditary peerages and so would need to be elected in a hereditary peer by-election.
I meant before 1999! That was the point of the original comment.
Yes, they could (including the Prince of Wales & Earl of Chester) though I don't believe did.
It's a bit like how the Queen could vote in a general election, but doesn't for constitutional convention reasons.
If Boris is going to the Home Office then the only reason why I can think May is sending him there is to finish him off once and for all. It used to be known as the place where careers die.
And of course the new PM knows exactly where all the skeletons and scandals are in the Home Office!
@allisonpearson: May I be the first to point out that Philip May, the PM's consort, is a dead ringer for Arthur Askey. For younger followers: a comedian.
@allisonpearson: May I be the first to point out that Philip May, the PM's consort, is a dead ringer for Arthur Askey. For younger followers: a comedian.
@SamuelHortiPW: Just been told by govt source that every single Downing Street adviser has gone. "It's pretty drastic. There's a lot of expertise [there]"
Samuel Horti @SamuelHortiPW 1h1 hour ago Just been told by govt source that every single Downing Street adviser has gone. "It's pretty drastic. There's a lot of expertise [there]"
If you're going to do it, better it be done immediately.
Whats the odds for Justine Greening as next Tory leader (or indeed, next PM?) - if she ends up getting an office of state, she will have a decent chunk of experience by the time Theresa stands down in 2023/4, she comes across well on TV, one nation type. And I think the thought of electing a 3rd female PM, second consecutive, and a lesbian, would be really rubbing it in to Labour. In with a good chance?
She does not have much charm and very dull.
People say the same about May and it didn't hurt. Depends if the next Tory election will be 'continuity' or 'time for a change'
Comments
GE2015 had seats with real odds of (I thought) 1.05-1.10 offering odds of 1.33-1.50 about 24 hours before the declaration. Plus the SNP phenomenan. It seemed nicely low risk 'betting', more like 'investment'. The next GE can't come soon enough.
If you're a high risk gambler, sorry to have put you off!
He's entirely unsuited to the role.
Make 3/1
Break 1/3
There's speculation on PEC [not at all a Trump-friendly site] that there's been a genuine shift to him, and he could be ahead in a week or two.
He certainly continues to outperform in the swing-states, as I have noted for several months.
A popular vote win for the Crooked One, but an EC loss also remains far more likely than the reverse.
Edit - do I mean Linley? What was Mark Philips created?
She'll either stitch him up with Brexit or Home - or get him out of the country with For Sec.
Hope Justine Greening gets a decent post, I think she's one of the most interesting people the Tories have.
Toby Austin Richard William Low, 1st Baron Aldington (Baron Low), Frederick James Erroll, 1st Baron Erroll of Hale (Baron Erroll of Kilmun), Francis Aungier Pakenham, 7th Earl of Longford, 1st Baron Pakenham (Baron Pakenham of Cowley) and Antony Armstrong-Jones, 1st Earl of Snowdon (Baron Armstrong-Jones)
"Look what you could have won" in a Jim Bowen style....
DamianVerified account
@damiangreenmp
@ChrisMasonBBC @ronbrown01 No I'm not!
It's a bit like how the Queen could vote in a general election, but doesn't for constitutional convention reasons.
Osborne out
Brilliant !
He put himself out there as a more suitable PM than Theresa - now is his chance to put the hard work in to prove he's up to it.
It would hardly be an unfair appointment.
Just been told by govt source that every single Downing Street adviser has gone. "It's pretty drastic. There's a lot of expertise [there]"
If you're going to do it, better it be done immediately.
What the hell is Mrs May doing in there?
When IDS is schooling you in politics...