politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So the changeover begins
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Mr. M, I know of no-one who is good at political betting who has suggested such a bet.
Incidentally, my mid-season ramble is up, including some spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html0 -
Public Service at its most noble.JackW said:
Lord O'Reilly of Hersham in the County of Surrey ....oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
What's not to like? ..
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Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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He's gone into number 10 to be told by the woman who should be moving into number 10 but is actually going to number 11 that he's got a top job and is moving into number 10.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No 11 I assumeJackW said:Hammond into No 10 ....
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John Major?oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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Mr. X, the lesson of the Praetorian Guard is not to have a Praetorian Guard. They probably killed more emperors than they saved (hence Basil II creating the Varangian Guard instead).0
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Nope, 20/21. Thanks though.Pulpstar said:
You might be able to get over Evens on Betfair.Essexit said:Lots of speculation about what Theresa's speech means. Frankly I doubt her rhetoric now will translate into much more than continued tinkering at the edges à la Cameron, the only thing that came across clearly from it was a kind of bland centrism; not necessarily a bad thing but she won't be a radical or serious reformer of any kind.
Also, PaddyPower is offering 10/11 on Corbyn to win the leadership election. Judging by Facebook and Twitter it's now widely known that Corbynites can get round the £25 cost by joining Unite for a much smaller sum, and people are really wound up about the NEC trying to move the goalposts. Would anyone care to talk me out of putting £50 or so down?0 -
Anyone got a source for Smith? He's just "launched" apparently, although the knives were quickly out.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn then, nailed on....bigjohnowls said:Smith out get on Eagle
https://www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/owen-smith-told-a-female-party-leader-she-was-invited-on-tv?utm_term=.fiew9dOv9#.yb2EwQnlw0 -
Lol.saddened said:
AA Grill, wins best typo of July by a country mile.AndyJS said:Six degrees of separation: Theresa May is the MP for Bray, the Fat Duck is in Bray, AA Grill is a restaurant critic, Amber Rudd was married to AA Gill, Amber Rudd is about to be appointed to a top job in Theresa May's cabinet.
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''No, I don't think we will ever get to stage where all professions are 50% men and 50% women. But I want to ensure that there are no barriers to both sexes attaining success in any profession.''
Its like a building site on my journey into Waterloo. Construction everywhere. But there's one thing I notice. All the people working on those sites are men. All of 'em. All weathers, covered in sh8te, in the p8ssing rain, all men.
So here's the deal. When 50% of those workers are women, you can have 50% of the professions.
Because right now it looks to me like women don;t want 50% of all jobs. They only want 50% of the best jobs.0 -
Blair.... - if you really want to kick the Labour party it's what you would do....TCPoliticalBetting said:
John Major?oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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Arghhh it was only there 5 seconds FFS.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, if Smith's out, Eagle's 9 on Ladbrokes, Corbyn 1.72.
Posting in haste lesson learnt0 -
I thought it was something of an all things to all men (and women) kind of speech, just as long as you were under-privileged. Nothing remotely aspirational about it. So for me it was disappointing, but not half as disappointing as Hammond becoming Chancellor as is being widely rumoured.0
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Personally (as a woman) I wouldn't mind if man identified as a feminist. And yes I agree that we'll be at a point of great progress when it's not newsworthy that the PM is a woman, or that there are several women on a board of directors.John_M said:
Thank you. I don't think someone born male can fairly claim to be a feminist; it feels slightly impertinent. However, I think we'll have finally made progress when the gender of a new PM is not noteworthy, and we do not debate the gender split in a political cabinet or board of directors.The_Apocalypse said:
*Typing nervously....*John_M said:Would you mind defining "feminist" as you see it please? It's often a movable feast. This is not presaging me picking a fight with you
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For me, a feminist is someone who believes in the equality of the sexes. That is how I interpret feminism. I guess, you could say most people believe in the equality of the sexes. But often what people 'define' as equality can differ from person to person. And then there are some that may say they believe in equality, but hold sexist (or misogynistic) views. I know several men and women that claim to believe in 'equality' for example but are very critical of women's sex lives and choices in comparison to men. Likewise, these same people also seem to look down on stay at home dads (where they would not in regard to stay at home mums) and are deeply uncomfortable with men working with children.
I'll sight one issue as an example of where I stand as a feminist. Am I someone dogmatic about equality of outcome? No, I don't think we will ever get to stage where all professions are 50% men and 50% women. But I want to ensure that there are no barriers to both sexes attaining success in any profession.0 -
That seems most likelyTCPoliticalBetting said:
John Major?oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But as a new hereditary wouldn't get an automatic seat in the Lords, I can't see it as a big problem0 -
Brexit is the water - the only question is where the current of Brexit will take us.GIN1138 said:0 -
''and we do not debate the gender split in a political cabinet or board of directors.''
I notice we don;t debate the gender split of people shovelling sh8t for a living.
That is because they are all men, and women don;t want those jobs.0 -
Rebekah Brooks?oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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But if you have one (which you probably do, because it enthroned you in the first place) getting from having one, to not having one, is problematic.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. X, the lesson of the Praetorian Guard is not to have a Praetorian Guard. They probably killed more emperors than they saved (hence Basil II creating the Varangian Guard instead).
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owls and he's corrected himselfRodCrosby said:
Anyone got a source for Smith? He's just "launched" apparently, although the knives were quickly out.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn then, nailed on....bigjohnowls said:Smith out get on Eagle
https://www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/owen-smith-told-a-female-party-leader-she-was-invited-on-tv?utm_term=.fiew9dOv9#.yb2EwQnlw0 -
Mr. Owls, the Verstappen [I'll stop mentioning it one day] bet was only 251 for about five minutes. If you don't move swiftly, opportunities can be missed.
Anyway, whilst I hope Eagle wins, and am flat if Corbyn does, I didn't stick an utterly vast sum on, so don't feel too bad. *cough*buymybookinDecembertomakeupforit*cough*0 -
You give them a hereditary peerage and a life peerage at the same time.MikeL said:
But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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If Hammond is appointed chancellor, average age of top two jobs will be 60 compared to 47 earlier today.0
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Earl of Brixton?oxfordsimon said:
That seems most likelyTCPoliticalBetting said:
John Major?oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
But as a new hereditary wouldn't get an automatic seat in the Lords, I can't see it as a big problem0 -
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Sky News - Boris into No 100
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BORIS0
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Hmm Boris arriving at no.10 on the Sky feed...0
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Tipped here first that a former PM would receive a hereditary gong.. just got the wrong former PM
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Boris going in! Minister for Brexit?0
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Personally (as a woman) I wouldn't mind if man identified as a feminist. And yes I agree that we'll be at a point of great progress when it's not newsworthy that the PM is a woman, or that there are several women on a board of directors.
What would be newsworthy is if there are several women in a gang of people digging drains or clearing out sewers.0 -
3 timeseek said:
owls and he's corrected himselfRodCrosby said:
Anyone got a source for Smith? He's just "launched" apparently, although the knives were quickly out.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn then, nailed on....bigjohnowls said:Smith out get on Eagle
https://www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/owen-smith-told-a-female-party-leader-she-was-invited-on-tv?utm_term=.fiew9dOv9#.yb2EwQnlw0 -
Imagine Boris as Foreign Secretary. Jesus Christ!0
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You could also say that men want the best jobs as well. So should they be denied equality? After all, I could also say that I don't see many men working as cleaners or as maids.taffys said:''No, I don't think we will ever get to stage where all professions are 50% men and 50% women. But I want to ensure that there are no barriers to both sexes attaining success in any profession.''
Its like a building site on my journey into Waterloo. Construction everywhere. But there's one thing I notice. All the people working on those sites are men. All of 'em. All weathers, covered in sh8te, in the p8ssing rain, all men.
So here's the deal. When 50% of those workers are women, you can have 50% of the professions.
Because right now it looks to me like women don;t want 50% of all jobs. They only want 50% of the best jobs.
I do think there is an issue that many jobs are frequently associated with one gender (construction being one of them). I think that this needs to change and we need to stop seeing jobs in tandem with only one gender, as it does affect the career routes/choices of young people.
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BoJo, Chief whip ?0
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If she makes Boris CoE, I am emigrating.0
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Maybe Major does not want the right to attend the Lords?RobD said:
You give them a hereditary peerage and a life peerage at the same time.MikeL said:
But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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Given that the last three PMs have lived in number 11 because it's a bigger flat and thus better for their children, wouldn't the Mays live in number 10?Brom said:
He's gone into number 10 to be told by the woman who should be moving into number 10 but is actually going to number 11 that he's got a top job and is moving into number 10.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No 11 I assumeJackW said:Hammond into No 10 ....
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Can Herititaries resign their places in the Lords like appointees can?MikeL said:
But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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Ah OK.RobD said:
You give them a hereditary peerage and a life peerage at the same time.MikeL said:
But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
Can't imagine he would give Major a Hereditary only - as that would be less use to him than a Life - as he may have to wait ages for a by-election.0 -
Yeah, that was only if the appointment was both an honour for being a former PM but Cameron also wanted another Tory in the Lords.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Maybe Major does not want the right to attend the Lords?RobD said:
You give them a hereditary peerage and a life peerage at the same time.MikeL said:
But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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Boris "doesn't do detail" Johnson as home secretary?
That would be a brilliantly cruel appointment.
She'd destroy him in cabinet week after week.
The final humiliation?0 -
@BBCVickiYoung: George Osborne has just left via the back gate at Downing Street #reshuffle0
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I used to spread bet F1 regularly several years ago. until I lost £1100 on a qualifying match bet (damn you heinz harald frentzen). I still won on the season but that scared me into my current average bet size of about £3.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, I know of no-one who is good at political betting who has suggested such a bet.
Incidentally, my mid-season ramble is up, including some spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html0 -
Calm down dear, Boris is merely returning the dagger to No10...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:If she makes Boris CoE, I am emigrating.
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George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
Boris - SoS Brexit ? ... or Party Chairman.
Don't see him in one of the Great Offices of State.
Ozzie seen leaving by back gate of Downing Street - BBC0 -
I have been saying that would happen for several months...TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
The hereditary peerage is for Andy Coulson.0
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Mr. 64, with limited funds, I expect to be pretty cautious (assuming I have any left, this year has, one bet aside, not been great).0
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I think so, by the 2014 act, I assume there would be a by-election in such an event.kle4 said:
Can Herititaries resign their places in the Lords like appointees can?MikeL said:
But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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I guess it was a possibility, and still is despite that exit method, but it was strange how certain some were he would get a top job. He went all out on the referendum and was a rival to May, without much popular appeal - a prime candidate for dismissal.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
People would be happy to have Boris in charge of negotiating Brexit? I honestly wouldn't...0
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Not a reshuffle. It's a new administration.Scott_P said:@BBCVickiYoung: George Osborne has just left via the back gate at Downing Street #reshuffle
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No way...TheScreamingEagles said:The hereditary peerage is for Andy Coulson.
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Resigned from governmentTheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
Bahahaha. How the mighty fall.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
Osborne resigns
KERCHING
Hammond in
KERCHING0 -
Hammond Chancellor0
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Yes. These days a peerage (be it life or hereditary) and membership of the Lords are linked, but separate things. The peerage gives you the right to sit (though with a hereditary peerage you need to be voted in as one of the '90' - the other 2 hereditaries are the ex officio office holders) but you can terminate your membership too, without effecting your peerage. (This is in stark contrast to the situation 60 years ago - hence Winston Churchill's refusal to become Duke of London.)kle4 said:
Can Herititaries resign their places in the Lords like appointees can?MikeL said:
But if he's giving Major a Hereditary surely it would be on the basis he did go into the Lords immediately - not sure how the formality would work - maybe some way of getting round it?RobD said:
Even newly minted hereditaries can't sit. When the 99 Act was passed the hereditaries which were the first holders of their title were offered life peerages.MikeL said:
But the successor wouldn't get to sit in the Lords - unless elected at a Hereditary by-election.oxfordsimon said:Expect a big kerfuffle about a new hereditary peerage in the Resignation Honours...
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I find the prospect of him as foreign secretary appealing, heading up Brexit much less so. I think it's a good idea to give him a top job, he's integral to the wider appeal of the Conservatives and she needs him onside.jonny83 said:People would be happy to have Boris in charge of negotiating Brexit? I honestly wouldn't...
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typical.Scott_P said:@BBCVickiYoung: George Osborne has just left via the back gate at Downing Street #reshuffle
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To be honest, I would've thought he'd be given a token job (Environment Secretary or something), in the spirit of the famous metaphor involving tents and pissing.kle4 said:
I guess it was a possibility, and still is despite that exit method, but it was strange how certain some were he would get a top job. He went all out on the referendum and was a rival to May, without much popular appeal - a prime candidate for dismissal.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
Nicola Sturgeon:Congratulations to the new Prime Minister @theresa_may - despite our differences, I hope we can build a constructive working relationship
While there's much they can do working together, it's a pretty limited thing I should think - one wants to destroy the other's nation after all (in favour of their own). The other will just destroy the other by accident.0 -
Nope, back to the bar for meRobD said:
No way...TheScreamingEagles said:The hereditary peerage is for Andy Coulson.
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Surely it's for our JohnO?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, back to the bar for meRobD said:
No way...TheScreamingEagles said:The hereditary peerage is for Andy Coulson.
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Is that the same kind of 'resignation' as when football managers leave 'by mutual consent' rather than being sacked?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Resigned from governmentTheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
Hopefully Foreign secretary for Boris. I think he'd be good at it.0
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Rather below your usual standard of humour TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:The hereditary peerage is for Andy Coulson.
At least, I hope you were joking...0 -
Resigning before being sackedkle4 said:
Is that the same kind of 'resignation' as when football managers leave 'by mutual consent' rather than being sacked?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Resigned from governmentTheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked0 -
I can see that producing many comedic situations....MaxPB said:Hopefully Foreign secretary for Boris. I think he'd be good at it.
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Tim can finally rejoice at the demise of Osborne0
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Amber Rudd into No 100
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Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 3m3 minutes ago
Press release also says 'Osborne has resigned from government'0 -
Osborne out via the back door. How typical...0
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How much trouble can he really cause though? He's not a rabble rousing type, he's not going to be an entertaining booking for tv shows to criticise the government, he's not leading any rebellions, even if he knows where bodies are buried.Danny565 said:
To be honest, I would've thought he'd be given a token job (Environment Secretary or something), in the spirit of the famous metaphor involving tents and pissing.kle4 said:
I guess it was a possibility, and still is despite that exit method, but it was strange how certain some were he would get a top job. He went all out on the referendum and was a rival to May, without much popular appeal - a prime candidate for dismissal.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne has left Downing Street via the back gate.
I'm taking it as a sign that he's been been sacked
Only early 40s though, if he wants he could stick this out long enough to become viable again in 10 years.0 -
Osborne was a bit of a fuckip in the end. Three omnishambles budgets, he can't seriously have expected to survive?0
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Hmph, I have to say I'm a lot more sceptical of May's talk of "an economy for everyone", if she's just put arch tax-dodger Hammond in charge of the economy.0
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Oh how the mighty have fallen. 'Master strategist' George Osborne now on the backbenches. I won't miss him.0
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Whats the odds for Justine Greening as next Tory leader (or indeed, next PM?) - if she ends up getting an office of state, she will have a decent chunk of experience by the time Theresa stands down in 2023/4, she comes across well on TV, one nation type. And I think the thought of electing a 3rd female PM, second consecutive, and a lesbian, would be really rubbing it in to Labour. In with a good chance?0
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Rejoice. Rejoice. Rejoice.Danny565 said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 3m3 minutes ago
Press release also says 'Osborne has resigned from government'0 -
True but Cameron never sacked him. Osborne sacked himself.grabcocque said:Osborne was a bit of a fuckip in the end. Three omnishambles budgets, he can't seriously have expected to survive?
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Strategic retreat...The_Apocalypse said:Oh how the mighty have fallen. 'Master strategist' George Osborne now on the backbenches. I won't miss him.
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He'll be back. I think May will want a couple if years to distance herself from the Cameroon wing, but eventually they will be brought back in from the cold.Slackbladder said:Tim can finally rejoice at the demise of Osborne
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Off to a good start!GIN1138 said:
Rejoice. Rejoice. Rejoice.Danny565 said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 3m3 minutes ago
Press release also says 'Osborne has resigned from government'
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If greening gets home sec, first openly gay holder of one of the great offices of state?0
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Osborne resigned. In the face. With a gun.0
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@JeremyClarkson: Oh for fuck's sake. May and Hammond? Really? We will end up thick and lost.0
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Boris doing Boris things on jaunts around the world.The_Apocalypse said:
I can see that producing many comedic situations....MaxPB said:Hopefully Foreign secretary for Boris. I think he'd be good at it.
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