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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In many ways Andrea Leadsom looks like Britain’s Sarah Pali

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  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Paul Goodman has written a back Theresa over on Conhome perhaps to flush out the feeling of members.

    May's behaviour through the referendum is being seen as very shifty.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pauly said:


    Well I hope Gove is happy now.

    Hope he gets Education again - time to finish the great job he was doing before Cameron was advised to drop him.
    It was the right decision though - he was an electoral liability.
    Gove needs education, surely you are not seriously suggesting he should be allowed back. No funding for core teacher training places, no teachers, building schools for the future cancelled so we can pay off the deficit which is now not being paid off.
    Gove is more than an electoral liability the bloke is an absolute menace to the future of everything.
    Cancelling BSF was a brilliant idea. It was a expensive ego trip by Brown to prove he was investing. Not one of the three schools I spent time in that were built under it were fit for purpose - too much glass, build quality poor, aesthetics terrible and in one case classrooms in an L-shape. But they all cost four times the headline figure which meant Skanska's profit margins were huge. Gove's start was actually a very encouraging one.

    Pity about the rest of it...
    Gove needs to stay at Justice. He appears to be the first Justice Minister in decades who is doing something of real value to reduce reoffending and make prisons places that rehabilitate rather than just keep people locked up.

    When the New Statesman is saying that the great Tory bogeyman is doing something good and worthy it is worth listening.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/05/michael-goves-quiet-revolution-could-transform-prisoner-education
    Agreed 100%. For all his (many) faults, Gove is a thoughtful guy, who tries to make a difference. He's also - unlike some people - quite evidence driven, which I find a refreshing change.
    I actually have no idea - someone was saying earlier this week on here that Gove is not evidence driven, in effect, in that he has his ideas and pursues them ignoring any objections or evidence, which is fine if he happens to be right, not if he isn't.
    I agree.
    Gove is not evidence driven, if he was then he would have seen all the evidence not to stab Boris in the back and trash his reputation for nothing.

    Gove is much more wife driven than evidence driven.
  • Options
    PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    ToryJim said:
    There are many dedicated and quite fanatical leavers like myself and Max who want to see May win as well.
    Well from a highly pragmatic point of view, the reduced chance of a split (which could kill brexit dead) is better even if there is a botched exit (which can be rectified more easily by the rightwing than fighting to re-leave)
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    By the way, if Palin was like Leadsom she would be President of the USA by now.

    You can't compare a former supermodel from Alaska to anyone in parliament at the moment.

    Charlie Falconer
    He is a former supermodel ?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Polish trade minister on Brexit talks:

    "Mr Sikorski believes the UK will inevitably have to leave the EU altogether as a result of the June 23 vote, and that renegotiating a new relationship will be long, painful and probably less advantageous."This is not a divorce, which is a separation of equals. This is a resignation of one out of 28,"

    It seems inevitable that the UK will have to leave, the minister said, as even if there were to be a change of heart in government, it likely wouldn't be feasible politically to reverse course given pressure from within the euroskeptic wing of the Conservative Party and "sniping" from the UK Independence Party.

    The problem for the UK is that under any institutional arrangement the EU tends to get what it wants, namely free trade in goods, while the UK won't get what it wants, which is trade in services, he said. "I don't see how it can be squared" given the promises made by the Leave campaign, he said. "It would be sensible to turn around and not leave but I don't think it's politically possible to do that given that the vote was pretty clear."

    The former minister said he's struck by how misinformed the debate in Britain was, even at the highest level of government. Moreover, Britain has no recent experience of dealing with the EU as an outsider, he said. He witnessed it at first hand during Poland's negotiations to join, and described it as an "unbelievably humiliating procedure" that may well be interpreted in Britain as EU hostility. "It's not, it's just how it is. Every country will defend its interests, will try to get the best deal possible out of Britain and this puts Britain in a vulnerable position and I think markets correctly see that," he said."

    Silly man.
    He may be right. I hope not.
    A brief read-around today has the Germans predicting a fall in car exports for this year as opposed to the 5% rise they were expecting, 95% of Irish hoteliers concerned over Brexit, the Greek tourist industry complaining about both Brexit and 'no one wanting to see refugees' and Portuguese banks largely going the same way as the Italian ones.

    The pressure to deliver an economic solution will sweep the rest away.
    As I said, I hope you're right.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?

    Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
    Is it a Gulfstream?
    Even our Charles flies economy ;)
    BA generously put me in business out on this trip & 1A back.
    Are you GGL?
    Of course. Bloody hard to get flying economy!
    LOL!

    You can fly Economy because you know your chance of not getting upgraded is minimal. :)
    Sssh! I was getting on well with the whole puritan stitck. Don't give the game away!
    I'm pretty consistently in the 3-3,500 TP range, so always fall just short. That being said, I have a two day trip to Oz next month, Texas in September, San Fran in Nov and Las Vegas in January.

    It requires an ungodly amount of flying (and a willingness to stick religiously to BA) to get GGL.
    Do the Muscat special. You get loads of TPs.
    I can tell you lot are talking about frequent flyer programmes or something like that, but the rest is a mystery...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?

    Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
    Is it a Gulfstream?
    Even our Charles flies economy ;)
    BA generously put me in business out on this trip & 1A back.
    Are you GGL?
    Of course. Bloody hard to get flying economy!
    LOL!

    You can fly Economy because you know your chance of not getting upgraded is minimal. :)
    Sssh! I was getting on well with the whole puritan stitck. Don't give the game away!
    I'm pretty consistently in the 3-3,500 TP range, so always fall just short. That being said, I have a two day trip to Oz next month, Texas in September, San Fran in Nov and Las Vegas in January.

    It requires an ungodly amount of flying (and a willingness to stick religiously to BA) to get GGL.
    I usually run at somewhere between 5000 - 6000 so usually get CRC but this year I spent 3 months gardening so am stuck at GGL for the next 12 months

    Try flying first around the US - $300 gets you 60TP.
    Charles - sorry to hear about your gardening leave, I do hope it all works out for you.
    Don't pity him too much; he has a nice shiny new job :)
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329
    Pauly said:

    ToryJim said:
    There are many dedicated and quite fanatical leavers like myself and Max who want to see May win as well.
    Well from a highly pragmatic point of view, the reduced chance of a split (which could kill brexit dead) is better even if there is a botched exit (which can be rectified more easily by the rightwing than fighting to re-leave)
    That is a very good post and a real possibility.

    If the ballot is brought forward a week can anyone imagine Leadsom at the G20 summit on the 4th September
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    Pauly said:

    ToryJim said:
    There are many dedicated and quite fanatical leavers like myself and Max who want to see May win as well.
    Well from a highly pragmatic point of view, the reduced chance of a split (which could kill brexit dead) is better even if there is a botched exit (which can be rectified more easily by the rightwing than fighting to re-leave)
    That is a very good post and a real possibility.

    If the ballot is brought forward a week can anyone imagine Leadsom at the G20 summit on the 4th September
    Why would she have any less credibility than Matteo Renzi or Justin Trudeau?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?

    Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
    Is it a Gulfstream?
    Even our Charles flies economy ;)
    BA generously put me in business out on this trip & 1A back.
    Are you GGL?
    Of course. Bloody hard to get flying economy!
    LOL!

    You can fly Economy because you know your chance of not getting upgraded is minimal. :)
    Sssh! I was getting on well with the whole puritan stitck. Don't give the game away!
    I'm pretty consistently in the 3-3,500 TP range, so always fall just short. That being said, I have a two day trip to Oz next month, Texas in September, San Fran in Nov and Las Vegas in January.

    It requires an ungodly amount of flying (and a willingness to stick religiously to BA) to get GGL.
    I usually run at somewhere between 5000 - 6000 so usually get CRC but this year I spent 3 months gardening so am stuck at GGL for the next 12 months

    Try flying first around the US - $300 gets you 60TP.
    Charles - sorry to hear about your gardening leave, I do hope it all works out for you.
    It was self imposed! My bet on Brexit was moving from a German firm to a US one...made the call in April :)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,045
    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic, and one for the techies:

    Just in case you didn't realise that Cambridge is an awesome place, someone here's developed a new chip technology. Intel is only on 14 nanometer per transistor. Well, a single guy in Cambridge has beaten them to a world first:

    http://www.gizmag.com/megaprocessor-room-size-computer/44218/

    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html

    :)

    I once had lunch with a chip designer at Intel, and said to him something along the lines of "if you gave me 100 years, I could write Microsoft Word, but if you gave me all of eternity, I couldn't make a CPU"
    You must be exceptionally clever, given the thousands of man years Bill Gates must have paid for to get his hands on Microsoft Word.
    I was simply making the point that - for a half way competent computer programmer, which I'm probably not - there is nothing technically demanding about writing Microsoft Word, especially in a world where there are such amazing development tools and libraries.

    Creating a microprocessor is another level of difficulty altogether.
    My mind is continually blown by the fact that they can fabricate chips that have feature sizes less than the wavelength of the light used for the photo masks.

    It's very Arthur C. Clarke 'Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic'.
    Even American pop stars can explain semiconductor physics:
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm

    If you think digital chip design is difficult, just try to get your head around analogue (RF) chip design. It's magic squared, and why RF chips are often two process steps or more behind digital chips.

    As an aside, I studied geological (civil) engineering at QMW. I spent much of my time hanging around in the VLSI lab, looking at these Gods and Goddesses who were learning to design chips.

    Little did I know I'd end up working closely with their sort, and end up marrying one.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Polish trade minister on Brexit talks:

    "Mr Sikorski believes the UK will inevitably have to leave the EU altogether as a result of the June 23 vote, and that renegotiating a new relationship will be long, painful and probably less advantageous."This is not a divorce, which is a separation of equals. This is a resignation of one out of 28,"

    It seems inevitable that the UK will have to leave, the minister said, as even if there were to be a change of heart in government, it likely wouldn't be feasible politically to reverse course given pressure from within the euroskeptic wing of the Conservative Party and "sniping" from the UK Independence Party.

    The problem for the UK is that under any institutional arrangement the EU tends to get what it wants, namely free trade in goods, while the UK won't get what it wants, which is trade in services, he said. "I don't see how it can be squared" given the promises made by the Leave campaign, he said. "It would be sensible to turn around and not leave but I don't think it's politically possible to do that given that the vote was pretty clear."

    The former minister said he's struck by how misinformed the debate in Britain was, even at the highest level of government. Moreover, Britain has no recent experience of dealing with the EU as an outsider, he said. He witnessed it at first hand during Poland's negotiations to join, and described it as an "unbelievably humiliating procedure" that may well be interpreted in Britain as EU hostility. "It's not, it's just how it is. Every country will defend its interests, will try to get the best deal possible out of Britain and this puts Britain in a vulnerable position and I think markets correctly see that," he said."

    Silly man.
    He may be right. I hope not.
    A brief read-around today has the Germans predicting a fall in car exports for this year as opposed to the 5% rise they were expecting, 95% of Irish hoteliers concerned over Brexit, the Greek tourist industry complaining about both Brexit and 'no one wanting to see refugees' and Portuguese banks largely going the same way as the Italian ones.

    The pressure to deliver an economic solution will sweep the rest away.
    As I said, I hope you're right.
    Joking aside, I have no competency in this area. That normally doesn't stop me ;). I think it's going to be incredibly tough. We simply have more skin in the game. I do think there will be some internal pressures that will mean that a deal will be necessary for the EU as well as Britain, other than that, it's in the lap of the Gods.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Iain getting cold feet

    Meanwhile, Leadsom has allowed the impression to be created that she was a bigger figure in the City than she was. She could have clarified all of this at any point in the last few years, but sadly she did not. In reality, she had a perfectly successful middling career in the City that needed no exagerration and of which she can be proud. But over the course of several years she allowed it to become something else in parliament and on the media. Her own assertions – even in recent days, about the scale of her management experience – made the situation worse. Such a person must not become Prime Minister.


    http://reaction.life/andrea-leadsom-must-not-become-prime-minister-circumstances/
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    HaroldO said:

    Davidson declares for May....probably not first to post this but here we are.

    And ConHome....must be second to this.

    As I said earlier and she will be very anti Leadsom with Leadsom's views on gay marriage.
    Leadsom's views on gay marriage are less controversial than they appear. She seems to have favoured full equality for civil unions (i.e. marriage in her terms) and to take the government out of religious ceremonies altogether.

    Anyway, it's a done deal now so her personal views are irrelevant.
    Not to Ruth Davidson I would venture to suggest and why even get involved in the matter
    How many members do the Tories have in scotland ?

    Geography matters, Corbyn rallied full steam ahead last year on the back of London Labour members who where a very large share of the total number of members.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329

    Pauly said:

    ToryJim said:
    There are many dedicated and quite fanatical leavers like myself and Max who want to see May win as well.
    Well from a highly pragmatic point of view, the reduced chance of a split (which could kill brexit dead) is better even if there is a botched exit (which can be rectified more easily by the rightwing than fighting to re-leave)
    That is a very good post and a real possibility.

    If the ballot is brought forward a week can anyone imagine Leadsom at the G20 summit on the 4th September
    Why would she have any less credibility than Matteo Renzi or Justin Trudeau?
    She wouldn't have a clue
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329
    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    Does anyone care
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    taffys said:

    Paul Goodman has written a back Theresa over on Conhome perhaps to flush out the feeling of members.

    May's behaviour through the referendum is being seen as very shifty.

    It's more UKIPhome these days. Goodman's article going down like the proverbial cup of cold sick.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Charles, glad to hear it was voluntary.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,216
    matt said:

    Scott_P said:
    To be fair, given the turnover of staff at Barclays, I'd be surprised if anyone who was there at the same time as her is still there.
    There have not been that many women in the City over the period AL was working and they tend to be known to each other, either personally or through reputation or networking. I have been working in the City since the mid 1980's and have never ever come across Ms Leadsom, not even by name, and the fund she worked at has never come up either.

    Anecdotal obviously but the idea that she was some sort of hotshot is so much bullshit. Women were rare enough and still are, relatively, that anyone who was really stellar in the way her supporters have claimed would be much more well known amongst those working in similar fields. She is far less than she appears or than she/her supporters claim.

    I have seen plenty of male versions of her in the City: full of bullshit but no real substance there. They may do no harm but some of them can do very great harm if put in the wrong position where their character/ judgment / experience failings are exposed. My judgment - based on over 30 years experience and thousands of investigations is that if she gets over-promoted to the role of PM the failings she has already exhibited will be mercilessly exposed to her - and, much more importantly, our - great disadvantage.

  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    Does anyone care
    About the Labour Party? No. They are verging on being irrelevant. The sooner Labour are consigned to the dustbin of history the better.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    Does anyone care
    It seems rather relevant inasmuch as how much they are strengthening Labour's current trajectory. Either the country is also going for current Labour in a big way and we're in for a shock at the next election, or there will be a truly amazing difference between labour and the voters which will be very hard to reverse.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    Pauly said:

    ToryJim said:
    There are many dedicated and quite fanatical leavers like myself and Max who want to see May win as well.
    Well from a highly pragmatic point of view, the reduced chance of a split (which could kill brexit dead) is better even if there is a botched exit (which can be rectified more easily by the rightwing than fighting to re-leave)
    That is a very good post and a real possibility.

    If the ballot is brought forward a week can anyone imagine Leadsom at the G20 summit on the 4th September
    Why would she have any less credibility than Matteo Renzi or Justin Trudeau?
    She wouldn't have a clue
    Putin didn't have a clue when he first became leader and was thrust onto the international stage. It doesn't mean anything.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?

    Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
    Is it a Gulfstream?
    Even our Charles flies economy ;)
    BA generously put me in business out on this trip & 1A back.
    Are you GGL?
    Of course. Bloody hard to get flying economy!
    I wonder if that's equivalent to United's Global Services? I'm a mere 1K unfortunately :(
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329
    Speedy said:

    HaroldO said:

    Davidson declares for May....probably not first to post this but here we are.

    And ConHome....must be second to this.

    As I said earlier and she will be very anti Leadsom with Leadsom's views on gay marriage.
    Leadsom's views on gay marriage are less controversial than they appear. She seems to have favoured full equality for civil unions (i.e. marriage in her terms) and to take the government out of religious ceremonies altogether.

    Anyway, it's a done deal now so her personal views are irrelevant.
    Not to Ruth Davidson I would venture to suggest and why even get involved in the matter
    How many members do the Tories have in scotland ?

    Geography matters, Corbyn rallied full steam ahead last year on the back of London Labour members who where a very large share of the total number of members.
    They are the official opposition in Scotland and Ruth has already threatened to take the Party independent of the UK party
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,045
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic, and one for the techies:

    Just in case you didn't realise that Cambridge is an awesome place, someone here's developed a new chip technology. Intel is only on 14 nanometer per transistor. Well, a single guy in Cambridge has beaten them to a world first:

    http://www.gizmag.com/megaprocessor-room-size-computer/44218/

    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html

    :)

    I once had lunch with a chip designer at Intel, and said to him something along the lines of "if you gave me 100 years, I could write Microsoft Word, but if you gave me all of eternity, I couldn't make a CPU"
    I bet you could come up with a simple workable instruction set (certainly better than X86), and perhaps even an architecture.

    Designing a chip to meet those, and particularly implementing it, is a very different matter. Also I think you'd have to sell your Gulfstream: the price-per-seat of the software you need to design chips is eye-watering. A certain company I know was quoted a per-seat price in the many billions.
    What! I thought you just knocked together a few lines of VHDL and hit the "compile" button :)
    Damn! I wonder what Mrs J is really doing whilst she claims to be beavering away at a VCO? :)

    (And BTW, "per-seat price in the many billions" in my post should have been just "price in the many billions") Ahem.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,880

    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    Does anyone care
    128K do I assume it's fair to conclude
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Too much laughter...

    @TelePolitics: Tory leadership contest: Michael Gove’s backers blame his defeat on Boris Johnson betrayal https://t.co/9gMFai9Bkv
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @rcs1000

    'The Polish trade minister on Brexit talks:

    "Mr Sikorski believes the UK will inevitably have to leave the EU altogether as a result of the June 23 vote, and that renegotiating a new relationship will be long, painful and probably less advantageous."This is not a divorce, which is a separation of equals. This is a resignation of one out of 28,"

    It seems inevitable that the UK will have to leave, the minister said, as even if there were to be a change of heart in government, it likely wouldn't be feasible politically to reverse course given pressure from within the euroskeptic wing of the Conservative Party and "sniping" from the UK Independence Party.

    The problem for the UK is that under any institutional arrangement the EU tends to get what it wants, namely free trade in goods, while the UK won't get what it wants, which is trade in services, he said. "I don't see how it can be squared" given the promises made by the Leave campaign, he said. "It would be sensible to turn around and not leave but I don't think it's politically possible to do that given that the vote was pretty clear."

    The former minister said he's struck by how misinformed the debate in Britain was, even at the highest level of government. Moreover, Britain has no recent experience of dealing with the EU as an outsider, he said. He witnessed it at first hand during Poland's negotiations to join, and described it as an "unbelievably humiliating procedure" that may well be interpreted in Britain as EU hostility. "It's not, it's just how it is. Every country will defend its interests, will try to get the best deal possible out of Britain and this puts Britain in a vulnerable position and I think markets correctly see that," he said."


    Did the Polish minister mention who was going to fill the £ 11 billion EU budget black hole ?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    We need to see regional breakdowns, if its mainly in London then 18 more years of opposition for them.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    HaroldO said:

    Davidson declares for May....probably not first to post this but here we are.

    And ConHome....must be second to this.

    As I said earlier and she will be very anti Leadsom with Leadsom's views on gay marriage.
    Leadsom's views on gay marriage are less controversial than they appear. She seems to have favoured full equality for civil unions (i.e. marriage in her terms) and to take the government out of religious ceremonies altogether.

    Anyway, it's a done deal now so her personal views are irrelevant.
    Not to Ruth Davidson I would venture to suggest and why even get involved in the matter
    How many members do the Tories have in scotland ?

    Geography matters, Corbyn rallied full steam ahead last year on the back of London Labour members who where a very large share of the total number of members.
    They are the official opposition in Scotland and Ruth has already threatened to take the Party independent of the UK party
    So who gets the single Tory MP from scotland ?
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Is there any chance that the UKIPish membership that elected IDS have largely become, well, UKIP?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Anecdotal obviously but the idea that she was some sort of hotshot is so much bullshit. ''

    If Leadsom was the person you describe, she would have done exactly what May did through the referendum. Soft remain, hide completely, resurface as unity candidate, or unity person.

    But she didn;t. She campaigned hard for Brexit, in the knowledge her career was over in the likely event that remain won.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?

    Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
    Is it a Gulfstream?
    Even our Charles flies economy ;)
    BA generously put me in business out on this trip & 1A back.
    Are you GGL?
    Of course. Bloody hard to get flying economy!
    I wonder if that's equivalent to United's Global Services? I'm a mere 1K unfortunately :(
    Not sure - it's about 12 returns business class trips to New York to qualify each year
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    From upthread, Microsoft Word was written by one guy at Xerox Parc IIRC, originally called Bravo
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Disraeli said:

    Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.

    So you think they should have shown deference to their "betters" like in the old days?
    You really don't get the concept of Democracy, do you?
    I used to, Mr Disraeli. But the concept seems to have changed a bit in recent months.

    Apparently it is now acceptable to flout electoral law and grossly overspend on your campaign and then fiddle the return of expenses.

    And, again apparently, it is now acceptable to tell as many bare-faced lies as you can think of in order to win more votes.

    And, it seems, it is acceptable to do all this, bring the county to its knees, and then wash your hands of the whole business.

    I certainly used to get the concept of democracy. But now the Tories have changed its meaning, i don`t "get it" at all. And what is more, I don`t like it.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,045

    Pauly said:

    ToryJim said:
    There are many dedicated and quite fanatical leavers like myself and Max who want to see May win as well.
    Well from a highly pragmatic point of view, the reduced chance of a split (which could kill brexit dead) is better even if there is a botched exit (which can be rectified more easily by the rightwing than fighting to re-leave)
    That is a very good post and a real possibility.

    If the ballot is brought forward a week can anyone imagine Leadsom at the G20 summit on the 4th September
    Why would she have any less credibility than Matteo Renzi or Justin Trudeau?
    She wouldn't have a clue
    Putin didn't have a clue when he first became leader and was thrust onto the international stage. It doesn't mean anything.
    Really? What do you base that on? He had a (ahem) very rich history before becoming leader.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    John_M said:

    Joking aside, I have no competency in this area. That normally doesn't stop me ;). I think it's going to be incredibly tough. We simply have more skin in the game. I do think there will be some internal pressures that will mean that a deal will be necessary for the EU as well as Britain, other than that, it's in the lap of the Gods.

    My view is that, if things move quickly, then they move to our advantage. As has been pointed out, the Eurozone recovery is fragile (albeit it grew faster than the UK or the US in Q1), and they won't want to jeopardise that.

    But I think if more time passes, then the balance of power moves away from us. We are the people who depend more on inward investment. We are the people with the current account deficit.

    We feel pain almost immediately: see the on-line job vacancies data or the construction PMI. They're scared it will spread to them. But six months down the line - if we don't have a deal outline in place - we'll start losing businesses like financial services who can't wait to see if we got passporting. (The French, for example, will prevaricate on passporting. If they give in on day 650 of 720, then a bunch of financial services will likely have moved already.)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    How is tractor production?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    BREAKING: Falconer resignation on BBC TV #bbcqt
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329

    Pauly said:

    ToryJim said:
    There are many dedicated and quite fanatical leavers like myself and Max who want to see May win as well.
    Well from a highly pragmatic point of view, the reduced chance of a split (which could kill brexit dead) is better even if there is a botched exit (which can be rectified more easily by the rightwing than fighting to re-leave)
    That is a very good post and a real possibility.

    If the ballot is brought forward a week can anyone imagine Leadsom at the G20 summit on the 4th September
    Why would she have any less credibility than Matteo Renzi or Justin Trudeau?
    She wouldn't have a clue
    Putin didn't have a clue when he first became leader and was thrust onto the international stage. It doesn't mean anything.
    You're not comparing her to Putin are you
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    john_zims said:

    @rcs1000

    'The Polish trade minister on Brexit talks:

    "Mr Sikorski believes the UK will inevitably have to leave the EU altogether as a result of the June 23 vote, and that renegotiating a new relationship will be long, painful and probably less advantageous."This is not a divorce, which is a separation of equals. This is a resignation of one out of 28,"

    It seems inevitable that the UK will have to leave, the minister said, as even if there were to be a change of heart in government, it likely wouldn't be feasible politically to reverse course given pressure from within the euroskeptic wing of the Conservative Party and "sniping" from the UK Independence Party.

    The problem for the UK is that under any institutional arrangement the EU tends to get what it wants, namely free trade in goods, while the UK won't get what it wants, which is trade in services, he said. "I don't see how it can be squared" given the promises made by the Leave campaign, he said. "It would be sensible to turn around and not leave but I don't think it's politically possible to do that given that the vote was pretty clear."

    The former minister said he's struck by how misinformed the debate in Britain was, even at the highest level of government. Moreover, Britain has no recent experience of dealing with the EU as an outsider, he said. He witnessed it at first hand during Poland's negotiations to join, and described it as an "unbelievably humiliating procedure" that may well be interpreted in Britain as EU hostility. "It's not, it's just how it is. Every country will defend its interests, will try to get the best deal possible out of Britain and this puts Britain in a vulnerable position and I think markets correctly see that," he said."


    Did the Polish minister mention who was going to fill the £ 11 billion EU budget black hole ?

    Well it's not the UK, is it?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    IanB2 said:

    BREAKING: Falconer resignation on BBC TV #bbcqt

    and available on iplayer so you can watch it over and over.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    alex. said:

    Is there any chance that the UKIPish membership that elected IDS have largely become, well, UKIP?

    In my experience, yes.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    taffys said:

    ''Anecdotal obviously but the idea that she was some sort of hotshot is so much bullshit. ''

    If Leadsom was the person you describe, she would have done exactly what May did through the referendum. Soft remain, hide completely, resurface as unity candidate, or unity person.

    But she didn;t. She campaigned hard for Brexit, in the knowledge her career was over in the likely event that remain won.

    So, we want someone willing to throw the dice?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,216
    Scott_P said:

    Iain getting cold feet

    Meanwhile, Leadsom has allowed the impression to be created that she was a bigger figure in the City than she was. She could have clarified all of this at any point in the last few years, but sadly she did not. In reality, she had a perfectly successful middling career in the City that needed no exagerration and of which she can be proud. But over the course of several years she allowed it to become something else in parliament and on the media. Her own assertions – even in recent days, about the scale of her management experience – made the situation worse. Such a person must not become Prime Minister.


    http://reaction.life/andrea-leadsom-must-not-become-prime-minister-circumstances/


    I dislike this English politeness about saying that her CV has been "exaggerated". Let's be frank. If you claim to be Chief Investment Officer when in fact you were not; if you claim you were managing huge teams when you were not; if you claim to be a Managing Director when in fact you were a marketing director, you are not "exaggerating". There is a very simple three-letter word which describes what you are doing.

    And if such a person was in my company there would be disciplinary action against someone found to have done such things.

    I realise that because of my job I am pretty purist about these things. But moral compasses matter. They are too rare. If someone's default instinct is not to tell the truth but to fantasise about themselves and their achievement then that tells me something important about that person, none of it good.

    Mistakes can be forgiven. We all make mistakes. But dishonesty is corrosive of trust. And trust in politicians and in the political process is badly needed at this time. The last thing we need is someone who has not shown that they can be trusted to tell an unvarnished account of themselves.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    taffys said:

    ''Anecdotal obviously but the idea that she was some sort of hotshot is so much bullshit. ''

    If Leadsom was the person you describe, she would have done exactly what May did through the referendum. Soft remain, hide completely, resurface as unity candidate, or unity person.

    But she didn;t. She campaigned hard for Brexit, in the knowledge her career was over in the likely event that remain won.

    The idea that Leadsom would be where she is now if she'd supported Remain (and Remain ad won) are laughable. She was a low ranking minister going nowhere. I thought it was quite funny that Mandarins apparently couldn't decide what was worse - her being in No.10 or given the consolation prize of No.11.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    That's a lot more concrete boots to keep Labour anchored to the seabed....
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Theresa May needs to stop the remnants of the remain campaign shilling for her - and now.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    HaroldO said:

    Davidson declares for May....probably not first to post this but here we are.

    And ConHome....must be second to this.

    As I said earlier and she will be very anti Leadsom with Leadsom's views on gay marriage.
    Leadsom's views on gay marriage are less controversial than they appear. She seems to have favoured full equality for civil unions (i.e. marriage in her terms) and to take the government out of religious ceremonies altogether.

    Anyway, it's a done deal now so her personal views are irrelevant.
    Not to Ruth Davidson I would venture to suggest and why even get involved in the matter
    How many members do the Tories have in scotland ?

    Geography matters, Corbyn rallied full steam ahead last year on the back of London Labour members who where a very large share of the total number of members.
    They are the official opposition in Scotland and Ruth has already threatened to take the Party independent of the UK party
    So who gets the single Tory MP from scotland ?
    You really have no idea about Scotland do you - but that is why the keep wanting independence
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Joking aside, I have no competency in this area. That normally doesn't stop me ;). I think it's going to be incredibly tough. We simply have more skin in the game. I do think there will be some internal pressures that will mean that a deal will be necessary for the EU as well as Britain, other than that, it's in the lap of the Gods.

    My view is that, if things move quickly, then they move to our advantage. As has been pointed out, the Eurozone recovery is fragile (albeit it grew faster than the UK or the US in Q1), and they won't want to jeopardise that.

    But I think if more time passes, then the balance of power moves away from us. We are the people who depend more on inward investment. We are the people with the current account deficit.

    We feel pain almost immediately: see the on-line job vacancies data or the construction PMI. They're scared it will spread to them. But six months down the line - if we don't have a deal outline in place - we'll start losing businesses like financial services who can't wait to see if we got passporting. (The French, for example, will prevaricate on passporting. If they give in on day 650 of 720, then a bunch of financial services will likely have moved already.)
    One reason why it's absolutely crazy having this stupid Conservative Members election. May's overwhelming support among the MPs gave the perfect excuse to install her ASAP, bringing forward the Brexit date substantially. Even Brexiters should have been in favour of that.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    Too much laughter...

    @TelePolitics: Tory leadership contest: Michael Gove’s backers blame his defeat on Boris Johnson betrayal https://t.co/9gMFai9Bkv

    Irony meter combusts ....
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    We have to consider events that can affect the Tory leadership election.

    It's very clear that Italy is heading for a banking crash, as another episode of the eurozone crisis starts.

    It's pretty convenient that Britain left the EU just as the eurozone is in crisis again.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cyclefree said:

    Mistakes can be forgiven. We all make mistakes. But dishonesty is corrosive of trust. And trust in politicians and in the political process is badly needed at this time. The last thing we need is someone who has not shown that they can be trusted to tell an unvarnished account of themselves.

    I agree entirely, but the mood of the electorate seems to be idealogical purity is more valuable than adherence to the truth
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited July 2016
    ''I realise that because of my job I am pretty purist about these things. But moral compasses matter. They are too rare. If someone's default instinct is not to tell the truth but to fantasise about themselves and their achievement then that tells me something important about that person, none of it good. ''

    FFS Cyclefree, get over yourself. What are you some kind of ultimate moral arbiter? don't you realise how pompous you sound?

    Theresa May is a remainer painting herself as the right person to take us out of the European Union.

    What's honest about that?
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    PClipp said:

    Disraeli said:

    Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.

    So you think they should have shown deference to their "betters" like in the old days?
    You really don't get the concept of Democracy, do you?
    I used to, Mr Disraeli. But the concept seems to have changed a bit in recent months.

    Apparently it is now acceptable to flout electoral law and grossly overspend on your campaign and then fiddle the return of expenses.

    And, again apparently, it is now acceptable to tell as many bare-faced lies as you can think of in order to win more votes.

    And, it seems, it is acceptable to do all this, bring the county to its knees, and then wash your hands of the whole business.

    I certainly used to get the concept of democracy. But now the Tories have changed its meaning, i don`t "get it" at all. And what is more, I don`t like it.
    Lib Dems complaining about telling lies to win votes doesn't really work does it?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    ''Anecdotal obviously but the idea that she was some sort of hotshot is so much bullshit. ''

    If Leadsom was the person you describe, she would have done exactly what May did through the referendum. Soft remain, hide completely, resurface as unity candidate, or unity person.

    But she didn;t. She campaigned hard for Brexit, in the knowledge her career was over in the likely event that remain won.

    So, we want someone willing to throw the dice?
    17 million people have just rolled the dice.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    PClipp said:

    Disraeli said:

    Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.

    So you think they should have shown deference to their "betters" like in the old days?
    You really don't get the concept of Democracy, do you?
    I used to, Mr Disraeli. But the concept seems to have changed a bit in recent months.

    Apparently it is now acceptable to flout electoral law and grossly overspend on your campaign and then fiddle the return of expenses.

    And, again apparently, it is now acceptable to tell as many bare-faced lies as you can think of in order to win more votes.

    And, it seems, it is acceptable to do all this, bring the county to its knees, and then wash your hands of the whole business.

    I certainly used to get the concept of democracy. But now the Tories have changed its meaning, i don`t "get it" at all. And what is more, I don`t like it.
    That sounds to me not dissimilar to how the Lib Dems have always acted...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    Speedy said:

    We have to consider events that can affect the Tory leadership election.

    It's very clear that Italy is heading for a banking crash, as another episode of the eurozone crisis starts.

    Italy's problem is actually very small. When we talk about 350bn of non-performing loans, we're talking about 350bn of non-performing loans that have already been recognised. The big problem in banking is loans you think are performing, that suddenly aren't. (Barings, for example.)

    The issue is that at the beginning of this year, the EU implemented new rules on state aid to banks. The effect of this was to 'bail in' senior creditors, and make state aid harder.

    This has meant Italian banks are suddenly struggling to fund themselves. Who wants to risk being bailed in to a bank rescue?

    What is ironic is that Ireland, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and (biggest of all) Germany all put in place state supported bad banks to sort out their banking systems. Italy is prevented from following in their footsteps.

    I think - personal view, not firm - that Renzi will just say "fuck it, sue me", and will both (a) recapitalise the most troubled banks (BMPS, for example) and create a bad bank to buy NPLs from the Unicredits of this world.

    Total cost a fairly modest EUR35bn or so, against the almost half a trillion in assets at the German bad bank that was needed to sort out Hypo Real and WestLB.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Can anyone explain why there is still money on Betfair backing Boris to be next PM?

    Surely the only way it wouldn't be May or Leadsom is if (heaven forbid) Cameron had a heart attack or similar before the leadership election is finished - in which case they would either speed up the leadership election or a senior member of the Cabinet would become PM for a few weeks - almost certainly Osborne given that he is First Secretary of State.

    It certainly wouldn't be Boris given he is not even in the Cabinet.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    One thing is clear. The Parliamentary Conservative Party won't tolerate a prominent Leave campaigner as Leader. There are only 30-40 true believers in the EU, but there is a much wider group who were happy to criticise the EU and all its works for years, but are now horrified to learn that 17m people were taking what they said to heart.

    So, May is the only person who can keep the Party united.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    taffys said:

    Theresa May is a remainer painting herself as the right person to take us out of the European Union.

    What's honest about that?

    No

    This is the bit the Brexiteers keep missing.

    May is painting herself as the best person to lead the country for the next 4 years, whatever happens, including Brexit.

    Leadsom is showing she has no clue how to deal with anything, including Brexit
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,216
    taffys said:

    ''Anecdotal obviously but the idea that she was some sort of hotshot is so much bullshit. ''

    If Leadsom was the person you describe, she would have done exactly what May did through the referendum. Soft remain, hide completely, resurface as unity candidate, or unity person.

    But she didn;t. She campaigned hard for Brexit, in the knowledge her career was over in the likely event that remain won.

    I raised concerns about Ms L on this forum last weekend before the various revelations came out. I felt that something was not quite right and, so far, I have been proved right.

    If you want to make a name for yourself politically - having told Osborne to do one - then going for the less career friendly option is a good course to take. Do well in the debates, make a name for yourself and if Remain win, you've staked a claim to be considered for further promotion in the name of party unity.

    I simply do not trust her. Nor do I think that she has shown good judgment.

    With her in charge of the government I think Britain will be in a far worse position than it would be otherwise.



  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?

    Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
    Is it a Gulfstream?
    Even our Charles flies economy ;)
    BA generously put me in business out on this trip & 1A back.
    Are you GGL?
    Of course. Bloody hard to get flying economy!
    I wonder if that's equivalent to United's Global Services? I'm a mere 1K unfortunately :(
    Not sure - it's about 12 returns business class trips to New York to qualify each year
    Any other readers wondering why Flyertalk is looking like Political Betting of all a sudden?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    One thing is clear. The Parliamentary Conservative Party won't tolerate a prominent Leave campaigner as Leader. There are only 30-40 true believers in the EU, but there is a much wider group who were happy to criticise the EU and all its works for years, but are now horrified to learn that 17m people were taking what they said to heart.

    So, May is the only person who can keep the Party united.

    Most Con MPs represent constituencies that voted Leave. They need a Leave leader to hide behind.

    As long as Con poll numbers don't tank, they'll play along.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Joking aside, I have no competency in this area. That normally doesn't stop me ;). I think it's going to be incredibly tough. We simply have more skin in the game. I do think there will be some internal pressures that will mean that a deal will be necessary for the EU as well as Britain, other than that, it's in the lap of the Gods.

    My view is that, if things move quickly, then they move to our advantage. As has been pointed out, the Eurozone recovery is fragile (albeit it grew faster than the UK or the US in Q1), and they won't want to jeopardise that.

    But I think if more time passes, then the balance of power moves away from us. We are the people who depend more on inward investment. We are the people with the current account deficit.

    We feel pain almost immediately: see the on-line job vacancies data or the construction PMI. They're scared it will spread to them. But six months down the line - if we don't have a deal outline in place - we'll start losing businesses like financial services who can't wait to see if we got passporting. (The French, for example, will prevaricate on passporting. If they give in on day 650 of 720, then a bunch of financial services will likely have moved already.)
    Chill. Amazon are hiring 1000 more people today, the British are still going to buy cheap tat from China and be paid shit wages in warehouses Brexit or not.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,793

    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    How is tractor production?
    At the "standard rate" 128k people will pay £3.92 per month. Surely a great boost to the Labour coffers. The minor inconvenient detail that they'll go bust very soon shouldn't in any way cloud our view as to their financial wisdom.

    Soon there will be a few traitorous scumdogs that form a new party. I suspect that they'll also demonstrate their undesirability by failing to master the statistics of tractor production.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    MikeL said:

    Can anyone explain why there is still money on Betfair backing Boris to be next PM?

    Surely the only way it wouldn't be May or Leadsom is if (heaven forbid) Cameron had a heart attack or similar before the leadership election is finished - in which case they would either speed up the leadership election or a senior member of the Cabinet would become PM for a few weeks - almost certainly Osborne given that he is First Secretary of State.

    It certainly wouldn't be Boris given he is not even in the Cabinet.

    Maybe if 80,000 party members wrote in a vote for Boris....?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    Theresa May needs to stop the remnants of the remain campaign shilling for her - and now.


    "Theresa May has hired a leading Remain campaigner to work on her Tory leadership bid. Alison Griffiths says she will be May’s Director of Operations, fresh out of her role as Chief Operating Officer for the doomed Conservatives In"

    http://order-order.com/2016/07/07/theresa-may-hires-top-remain-campaigner/
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    rcs - call me controversial but I want to see an end to EU passporting rights. This country will never sort itself out whilst we have such a bloated financial sector (which on top of everything else is our own dutch disease) and it would help with the long needed rebalancing of the economy - one reason Paul Krugman wasn't so dismayed by Brexit. It might also mean that our capital and predominant city will be affordable and liveable for the broad population.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    We have to consider events that can affect the Tory leadership election.

    It's very clear that Italy is heading for a banking crash, as another episode of the eurozone crisis starts.

    Italy's problem is actually very small. When we talk about 350bn of non-performing loans, we're talking about 350bn of non-performing loans that have already been recognised. The big problem in banking is loans you think are performing, that suddenly aren't. (Barings, for example.)

    The issue is that at the beginning of this year, the EU implemented new rules on state aid to banks. The effect of this was to 'bail in' senior creditors, and make state aid harder.

    This has meant Italian banks are suddenly struggling to fund themselves. Who wants to risk being bailed in to a bank rescue?

    What is ironic is that Ireland, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and (biggest of all) Germany all put in place state supported bad banks to sort out their banking systems. Italy is prevented from following in their footsteps.

    I think - personal view, not firm - that Renzi will just say "fuck it, sue me", and will both (a) recapitalise the most troubled banks (BMPS, for example) and create a bad bank to buy NPLs from the Unicredits of this world.

    Total cost a fairly modest EUR35bn or so, against the almost half a trillion in assets at the German bad bank that was needed to sort out Hypo Real and WestLB.
    That was Renzi's point, ultimately. It's classic mote/beam territory. Being lectured on fiscal discipline by Germany must be hard to swallow.

    I see that the EC are starting proceedings against Spain and Portugal for being in breach of EU fiscal rules. Hope the finance ministers squash it.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,216
    taffys said:

    ''I realise that because of my job I am pretty purist about these things. But moral compasses matter. They are too rare. If someone's default instinct is not to tell the truth but to fantasise about themselves and their achievement then that tells me something important about that person, none of it good. ''

    FFS Cyclefree, get over yourself. What are you some kind of ultimate moral arbiter? don't you realise how pompous you sound?

    Theresa May is a remainer painting herself as the right person to take us out of the European Union.

    What's honest about that?

    I'm expressing my view, based on my experience - particularly my experience of seeing the appalling consequences of a lack of honesty, for which we all as taxpayers are still paying. I am not a moral arbiter. But I am entitled to make a judgment on people. And I consider honesty a more valuable quality than ideological purity. That may not matter to you. It does to me.

    Others may disagree. Such is life. :)

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    Cyclefree said:

    I simply do not trust her. Nor do I think that she has shown good judgment.

    With her in charge of the government I think Britain will be in a far worse position than it would be otherwise.

    If you're on the Remain side of the argument you can question her judgement in backing Leave, although arguably once Boris Johnson declared the die was cast. I don't see the argument to question her judgement if you think voting Leave was the right thing. What other big issues has she been on the wrong side of?

    Even Ken Clarke thinks she is not a lunatic on Europe. I have a hunch she'll be a safer pair of hands than May who will face more political pressure to get on with Brexit by jumping to the unsatisfactory EEA option instead of seeking a fundamental renegotiation.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Joking aside, I have no competency in this area. That normally doesn't stop me ;). I think it's going to be incredibly tough. We simply have more skin in the game. I do think there will be some internal pressures that will mean that a deal will be necessary for the EU as well as Britain, other than that, it's in the lap of the Gods.

    My view is that, if things move quickly, then they move to our advantage. As has been pointed out, the Eurozone recovery is fragile (albeit it grew faster than the UK or the US in Q1), and they won't want to jeopardise that.

    But I think if more time passes, then the balance of power moves away from us. We are the people who depend more on inward investment. We are the people with the current account deficit.

    We feel pain almost immediately: see the on-line job vacancies data or the construction PMI. They're scared it will spread to them. But six months down the line - if we don't have a deal outline in place - we'll start losing businesses like financial services who can't wait to see if we got passporting. (The French, for example, will prevaricate on passporting. If they give in on day 650 of 720, then a bunch of financial services will likely have moved already.)
    Chill. Amazon are hiring 1000 more people today, the British are still going to buy cheap tat from China and be paid shit wages in warehouses Brexit or not.
    Losing 1,000 bankers at that average wage and replacing them with 1,000 Amazon warehouse workers is the fast track to the poor house.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    taffys said:

    FFS Cyclefree, get over yourself. What are you some kind of ultimate moral arbiter? don't you realise how pompous you sound?

    Theresa May is a remainer painting herself as the right person to take us out of the European Union.

    What's honest about that?

    The Conservative Party is de facto electing a Prime Minister not Minster of State for BREXIT which is why May enjoys support from all sides of the party and not just the Tombstone group and assorted oddities.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Joking aside, I have no competency in this area. That normally doesn't stop me ;). I think it's going to be incredibly tough. We simply have more skin in the game. I do think there will be some internal pressures that will mean that a deal will be necessary for the EU as well as Britain, other than that, it's in the lap of the Gods.

    My view is that, if things move quickly, then they move to our advantage. As has been pointed out, the Eurozone recovery is fragile (albeit it grew faster than the UK or the US in Q1), and they won't want to jeopardise that.

    But I think if more time passes, then the balance of power moves away from us. We are the people who depend more on inward investment. We are the people with the current account deficit.

    We feel pain almost immediately: see the on-line job vacancies data or the construction PMI. They're scared it will spread to them. But six months down the line - if we don't have a deal outline in place - we'll start losing businesses like financial services who can't wait to see if we got passporting. (The French, for example, will prevaricate on passporting. If they give in on day 650 of 720, then a bunch of financial services will likely have moved already.)
    Chill. Amazon are hiring 1000 more people today, the British are still going to buy cheap tat from China and be paid shit wages in warehouses Brexit or not.
    Losing 1,000 bankers at that average wage and replacing them with 1,000 Amazon warehouse workers is the fast track to the poor house.
    Don't sneer at Amazon.

    "We are hiring for all types of roles from software engineers, computer programmers and corporate managers in our R&D centres and head office, to operations managers, engineers, service technicians, HR roles and order fulfilment roles in our fulfilment centres."
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    john_zims said:

    @rcs1000

    'The Polish trade minister on Brexit talks:

    "Mr Sikorski believes the UK will inevitably have to leave the EU altogether as a result of the June 23 vote, and that renegotiating a new relationship will be long, painful and probably less advantageous."This is not a divorce, which is a separation of equals. This is a resignation of one out of 28,"

    It seems inevitable that the UK will have to leave, the minister said, as even if there were to be a change of heart in government, it likely wouldn't be feasible politically to reverse course given pressure from within the euroskeptic wing of the Conservative Party and "sniping" from the UK Independence Party.

    The problem for the UK is that under any institutional arrangement the EU tends to get what it wants, namely free trade in goods, while the UK won't get what it wants, which is trade in services, he said. "I don't see how it can be squared" given the promises made by the Leave campaign, he said. "It would be sensible to turn around and not leave but I don't think it's politically possible to do that given that the vote was pretty clear."

    The former minister said he's struck by how misinformed the debate in Britain was, even at the highest level of government. Moreover, Britain has no recent experience of dealing with the EU as an outsider, he said. He witnessed it at first hand during Poland's negotiations to join, and described it as an "unbelievably humiliating procedure" that may well be interpreted in Britain as EU hostility. "It's not, it's just how it is. Every country will defend its interests, will try to get the best deal possible out of Britain and this puts Britain in a vulnerable position and I think markets correctly see that," he said."


    Did the Polish minister mention who was going to fill the £ 11 billion EU budget black hole ?

    It's not the '70's anymore, £11bn is not really that much amongst 27 countries.

    Overall his explanation seems pretty spot on about our lack of negotiating leverage against a 27 country block and a 2 year negotiating window.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Even Ken Clarke thinks she is not a lunatic on Europe. I have a hunch she'll be a safer pair of hands than May

    She has already offered EU criminals the right to remain in the UK while abandoning UK expats.

    About as safe as Joe Hart...
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sean_F said:

    One thing is clear. The Parliamentary Conservative Party won't tolerate a prominent Leave campaigner as Leader. There are only 30-40 true believers in the EU, but there is a much wider group who were happy to criticise the EU and all its works for years, but are now horrified to learn that 17m people were taking what they said to heart.

    So, May is the only person who can keep the Party united.

    I don't see that that's true. What's clear is that they don't think any of the "prominent Leave campaigners" on offer are the best candidate for Prime Minister. And hardly surprising. They weren't even offered the chance to vote for Boris. Leadsom is only in the race because she was a Leaver - but the idea is that that is the barrier to MP support is ridiculous. And Gove...

    If there had been some prominent Leave campaigners who were genuine PM material then it might have been different. But there weren't.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    IanB2 said:

    BREAKING: Falconer resignation on BBC TV #bbcqt

    It's like Christmas everyday this week for Corbyn.

    So Corbyn survives, Leadsom to fight May, only for Germany to beat France and I'll hit 3 out 3 from my recent predictions.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. D, it's not amongst 27 countries, it's amongst the contributor nations.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    Scott_P said:

    Even Ken Clarke thinks she is not a lunatic on Europe. I have a hunch she'll be a safer pair of hands than May

    She has already offered EU criminals the right to remain in the UK while abandoning UK expats.
    Are you taking talking points from Farage now?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    taffys said:

    ''I realise that because of my job I am pretty purist about these things. But moral compasses matter. They are too rare. If someone's default instinct is not to tell the truth but to fantasise about themselves and their achievement then that tells me something important about that person, none of it good. ''

    FFS Cyclefree, get over yourself. What are you some kind of ultimate moral arbiter? don't you realise how pompous you sound?

    Theresa May is a remainer painting herself as the right person to take us out of the European Union.

    What's honest about that?

    Cyclefree can stick up for herself. My issue is with talking about May as a 'Remainer'. We have to quickly stop this habit of labeling people in this way, as if someone who voted remain is some kind of untermensch.

    The EU is not (or at least, not entirely) run by Lizard People. Our politicians aren't necessarily in thrall to the EU.

    Brexit is Brexit. Who is the best, most experienced person to build a team, put any necessary vote through the House and deliver a result? Brexit itself is not the PM's full time job. That will be a departmental level responsibility.

    There are many other important things that need to happen over the next four years. The country must be well run on behalf of the entire electorate. We must ensure that Labour (unless radically changed) does not get anywhere near the levers of power in 2020.

    I voted Leave. I will be voting May because she has the support of the PCP, and is simply a safer pair of hands at a time when that is critically important.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Are you taking talking points from Farage now?

    Farage is supporting her!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329
    There will be a torrent of polls comparing the two and how voters take to the choice for PM. I simply cannot see these as being anything but terrible for Andrea Leadsom.

    I was listening to a Gove supporter on Sky saying how he emphatically endorses Theresa May as the only candidate with the experience and ability to be PM and attend meetings with Merkel, Obama, and world leaders.

    I expect most of Gove's supporters will do the same giving her at least two thirds support with her colleagues
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    Do the people accusing Leadsom of being dishonest about her CV have any issue with the way she presented her career history in the BBC clip on here?

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36737426
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,793
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    We have to consider events that can affect the Tory leadership election.

    It's very clear that Italy is heading for a banking crash, as another episode of the eurozone crisis starts.

    Italy's problem is actually very small. When we talk about 350bn of non-performing loans, we're talking about 350bn of non-performing loans that have already been recognised. The big problem in banking is loans you think are performing, that suddenly aren't. (Barings, for example.)

    The issue is that at the beginning of this year, the EU implemented new rules on state aid to banks. The effect of this was to 'bail in' senior creditors, and make state aid harder.

    This has meant Italian banks are suddenly struggling to fund themselves. Who wants to risk being bailed in to a bank rescue?

    What is ironic is that Ireland, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and (biggest of all) Germany all put in place state supported bad banks to sort out their banking systems. Italy is prevented from following in their footsteps.

    I think - personal view, not firm - that Renzi will just say "fuck it, sue me", and will both (a) recapitalise the most troubled banks (BMPS, for example) and create a bad bank to buy NPLs from the Unicredits of this world.

    Total cost a fairly modest EUR35bn or so, against the almost half a trillion in assets at the German bad bank that was needed to sort out Hypo Real and WestLB.
    "Italy's problem is actually very small."

    Somehow they're the cusp nation though. If Italy goes wrong then the EU breaks. Italy is going wrong too, but perhaps her people have caught the matter in time. The five-star thing is really quite interesting - ostensibly just breaking the mold, albeit the practical implications may be rather dull and boring.

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Mistakes can be forgiven. We all make mistakes. But dishonesty is corrosive of trust. And trust in politicians and in the political process is badly needed at this time. The last thing we need is someone who has not shown that they can be trusted to tell an unvarnished account of themselves.

    I agree entirely, but the mood of the electorate seems to be idealogical purity is more valuable than adherence to the truth
    It seems those with ideological purity are trusted more to implement what they say, than those who do not.

    There is a fine line from being a moderate to being a double-faced liar, New Labour crossed that line many times.
    Cameron crossed it too.

    But who trusts politicians these days, or in any day ?
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    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick — 128,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last 11 days.

    That's a lot more concrete boots to keep Labour anchored to the seabed....
    Would those be more blue-coloured concrete boots purchased at the bargain price of £3 per pair?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Speedy said:

    By the way, if Palin was like Leadsom she would be President of the USA by now.

    You can't compare a former supermodel from Alaska to anyone in parliament at the moment.

    Palin was a provincial beauty queen, hardly a supermodel.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Speedy said:

    It seems those with ideological purity are trusted more to implement what they say, than those who do not.

    Even if what they say they would do changes on a daily basis...
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited July 2016

    rcs - call me controversial but I want to see an end to EU passporting rights. This country will never sort itself out whilst we have such a bloated financial sector (which on top of everything else is our own dutch disease) and it would help with the long needed rebalancing of the economy - one reason Paul Krugman wasn't so dismayed by Brexit. It might also mean that our capital and predominant city will be affordable and liveable for the broad population.

    Remain sometimes come across as protect London to protect the bankers and bugger everyone elses' feelings and concerns.

    Even Corbyn can spy an opportunity.

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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:

    Even Ken Clarke thinks she is not a lunatic on Europe. I have a hunch she'll be a safer pair of hands than May

    She has already offered EU criminals the right to remain in the UK while abandoning UK expats.

    About as safe as Joe Hart...
    This is all spin frankly. And I say that as someone who is desperate for May to win. I think the EU expat thing is the one big error she has made so far. I don't think it does any good at all to suggest that EU migrants are a bargaining counter and thereby imply that they bring no positive benefits to the country. The idea that it is a mutually negative quid pro quo - we put up with your migrants if you put up with ours is corrosive. In fact we gain hugely in many ways from EU migrants, just as expats often benefit the EU states in which they live. I don't see any real reason why the EU should chuck out our expats, so I don't think there's much to lose by sending out positive signals towards the EU citizens living and working here.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Also too much laughter

    @SkipLicker: We demand equality for women!

    OK. Here it is

    No. No. No. They are the wrong women.... https://t.co/e1N6npyGIb
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    John_M said:

    My issue is with talking about May as a 'Remainer'. We have to quickly stop this habit of labeling people in this way, as if someone who voted remain is some kind of untermensch.

    Indeed. What people were before we voted to Leave doesn't matter now that we have.

    What matters is how the politicians will carry forward the voters' instruction to Leave.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    alex. said:

    I don't see any real reason why the EU should chuck out our expats, so I don't think there's much to lose by sending out positive signals towards the EU citizens living and working here.

    The problem is Spain

    "Sure, we'll keep all of your pensioners in Spain. In return for Gibraltar..."
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    chestnut said:

    rcs - call me controversial but I want to see an end to EU passporting rights. This country will never sort itself out whilst we have such a bloated financial sector (which on top of everything else is our own dutch disease) and it would help with the long needed rebalancing of the economy - one reason Paul Krugman wasn't so dismayed by Brexit. It might also mean that our capital and predominant city will be affordable and liveable for the broad population.

    Remain sometimes come across as protect London to protect the bankers and bugger the every one else's feeling and concerns.

    London generates about 30% of our tax revenue. Alastair is a complete tit sometimes, but he's right about the importance of London. Without London, the UK becomes, overnight, Italy.

    The future for this country is high value-add services. We might not like it, but there it is.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    We have to consider events that can affect the Tory leadership election.

    It's very clear that Italy is heading for a banking crash, as another episode of the eurozone crisis starts.

    Italy's problem is actually very small. When we talk about 350bn of non-performing loans, we're talking about 350bn of non-performing loans that have already been recognised. The big problem in banking is loans you think are performing, that suddenly aren't. (Barings, for example.)

    The issue is that at the beginning of this year, the EU implemented new rules on state aid to banks. The effect of this was to 'bail in' senior creditors, and make state aid harder.

    This has meant Italian banks are suddenly struggling to fund themselves. Who wants to risk being bailed in to a bank rescue?

    What is ironic is that Ireland, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and (biggest of all) Germany all put in place state supported bad banks to sort out their banking systems. Italy is prevented from following in their footsteps.

    I think - personal view, not firm - that Renzi will just say "fuck it, sue me", and will both (a) recapitalise the most troubled banks (BMPS, for example) and create a bad bank to buy NPLs from the Unicredits of this world.

    Total cost a fairly modest EUR35bn or so, against the almost half a trillion in assets at the German bad bank that was needed to sort out Hypo Real and WestLB.
    Surely the Germans want the Italians to tell the commission to do one because it paves the way for them to bail out Deutsche Bank. The bail in for DB would be utterly huge if it starts to fail.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329

    taffys said:

    Theresa May needs to stop the remnants of the remain campaign shilling for her - and now.


    "Theresa May has hired a leading Remain campaigner to work on her Tory leadership bid. Alison Griffiths says she will be May’s Director of Operations, fresh out of her role as Chief Operating Officer for the doomed Conservatives In"

    http://order-order.com/2016/07/07/theresa-may-hires-top-remain-campaigner/
    Pity you use selective quotes. If you read the full article it says Griffiths will have a junior role and stress their ground war will be run by Stephen Parkinson, formerly of vote leave
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