Didn't expect Gove to do so catastrophically. His "I have no charisma" speech must have gone down even more badly than expected.
It’s exactly what I thought would happen – his knifing of Boris went down very badly with Tory MPs, only the conspiracy theorists have been bigging up his chances.
Gove may have blasted Boris out of the game, but it was so obvious the ricochet would take his own head off too.
He could have kept quiet and been a senior capo in Boris's Cabinet. What a twat.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Didn't expect Gove to do so catastrophically. His "I have no charisma" speech must have gone down even more badly than expected.
It’s exactly what I thought would happen – his knifing of Boris went down very badly with Tory MPs, only the conspiracy theorists have been bigging up his chances.
Gove may have blasted Boris out of the game, but it was so obvious the ricochet would take his own head off too.
He could have kept quiet and been a senior capo in Boris's Cabinet. What a twat.
Did it even occur to him that Boris would be an outstanding PM compared to Leadsom? Maybe his brain was addled from weeks of campaigning. Maybe he just did what his wife said.
The next PM is to be decided by the votes of about 150,000 people. How many of the posters on here actually have a vote? I can think of five
Big_G_Northwales Miss Plato Young Darth Eagles JohnO Mr Nabavi
Any others?
I thought PlatoSaid she was a floating voter?
Yes and I am for Theresa - It will be interesting to see how Ruth Davidson reacts to Andrea Leadsom, especially her views on gay marriage. She has previously indicated she could lead the Scots Conservatives to a divorce from the UK party
I didn't think of that angle, it will be tough for Ruth to bow to a gay basher like Leadsom.
Oh please fuck off. Just because she prefers civil unions to gay marriage, something the entire Tory party did in 2005, does not mean she is a gay basher. She has not said one insulting word against gay people. You are just acting like a spoilt child now.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Calm down, old chap, dear me, goodness, so excitable: fret ye not: we crusties will do our duty for Theresa.
Well, at least we know the UK's independent deterrent isn't, really.
That's reassuring, because Prime Minister Leadsom won't be able to start a nuclear war without the backing of the American president. Oh, just a minute ...
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Complexion of party is different to 2005 so if Dave could win then Theresa should triumph now. Through natural wastage and the UKIP syphon effect on older more Jurassic members the balance will be more to the socially liberal centrism than the lunatic fringe.
Mr. Jessop, oh aye, there are plenty of muppets on both sides.
Had a chat with a friend today who said she'd switched off Facebook etc for the last few weeks because people on both sides were just going nuts over the referendum and then the result.
As an aside, more people tend to buy fantasy when there's economic turbulence, so it's not all bad news.
Last weekend she held a meeting to discuss the Brexit vote at the council offices in my village. Sadly we couldn't attend (despite it being just ten minutes walk away), but by all accounts it was quite good.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Yes, the bulk of Tory members will be older, home-owning ABs in the SE of England. They voted LEAVE on the whole, but they are sovereigntists not Kippers and they really don't like falling house prices and seeing London in trouble. etc
They will go for May I suspect, as the stability candidate who will calm the economy. Leadsom has to prove to them she can also bring stability - EEA etc - but that will be very hard for her, as she has the backing of the nutters.
The Tories voted for IDS. Leadsom is interesting (in a morbid, curious way) and will therefore get attention. In a world we vote for Brexit and Corbyn, don't count anything out.
From a betting perspective, it seems inconceivable to me that at some stage over the next 3 years and 10 months, i.e leading up to the next GE in early May 2020, Labour won't pose a serious threat to the Tories in terms of winning the most seats. Indeed within the next 2 years and probably a good deal earlier, we will look back to the present problems within the party and wonder what all the fuss was about. That said, following La May's impressive win in today's second round of voting for the Tory leadership, Ladbrokes have really gone out on a limb by offering 3/1 against Labour winning the most seats at the next GE, way ahead of the rest of the market where their nearest rival is offering odds of 9/4,whilst the big daddy, William Hill's price is a measly 7/4. As we at PB.com know all too well, often to our cost, Shadsy is a real shrewdie when it comes to laying what may appear initially to be attractive odds, but it does seem to me that on this occasion he may have erred slightly on the generous side. Anyway, I've had a nifty fifty on the Red team, not so much in the expectation of collecting £200, but more on the prospect of profitably trading out this bet along the way. DYOR.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
Thatcher wasn't centrist, and she won general elections.
Whoever wins the leadership contest will get a polling boost. If that's Leadsom, she'll keep it.
Most constituencies voted Leave. I think the next general election will see a higher turnout than 2015, as some of those Leave voters make sure we stay out of the EU by voting for Leadsom-led Conservatives.
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
When do the ballots actually get sent out to Tory members? I presume the ERS provides the services for the Tories?
There is time for Leadsom to build up a head of steam in a Corbynlike manner. Remember Corbyn did win the Labour members vote and would have won without three quidders. It is entirely possible that Leadsom could end up putting the Tories in the exact same spot that Labour is in.
The only question then would be what the Tory rules are for a leader who is challenged, do they automatically get a right to go to the members vote or does a no confidence vote by MPs successfully kick them out?
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
At least this means I've got my threads already written for the next 9 weeks.
You'd have to be absolutely batshit crazy to even think about voting for the loathsome Leadsom.
And Leadsom makes Corbyn as PM nailed on.
That sort of stuff.
If the leadership election is brought forward then the new PM will be representing the UK at the G20 summit in China on 4/5 September. Can you imagine Leadsom doing that?
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
I find myself in the odd situation of now rooting for the Daily Mail as it does a six week hatchet job on Leadsom. Or are they going to change?
Media needs to learn lessons from the Remain campaign. Clever wordplay, sneering at Leadsom's faith, mocking her views on adoption? Fucking stupid.
It will make the members' hackles rise. The rule should be: if you're a metropolitan luvvie and you don't want PM Leadsom, stfu.
Indeed. Metro elite Tories sneering at Leadsom should remember that they just lost the EU referendum.
Luckily for May she doesn't do sneering and doesn't come across as posho metrosexual. She comes across as boring but quite clever and competent grammar school girl. That will do, for now. in the absence of Churchill or Thatcher.
No, no, Leadsom is Thatcher. Because. Just because.
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So, you want the entire country fucked.
Nice.
I suspect Alastair thinks that is priced in either way.
@RobD Not at all. If Britain is to get back on the right path, it needs to get the Leave virus out of its system. This is a fever that we need to sweat out.
Once we have done so, we will be severely weakened and debilitated, but then we can move into the recovery phase.
When do the ballots actually get sent out to Tory members? I presume the ERS provides the services for the Tories?
There is time for Leadsom to build up a head of steam in a Corbynlike manner. Remember Corbyn did win the Labour members vote and would have won without three quidders. It is entirely possible that Leadsom could end up putting the Tories in the exact same spot that Labour is in.
The only question then would be what the Tory rules are for a leader who is challenged, do they automatically get a right to go to the members vote or does a no confidence vote by MPs successfully kick them out?
The latter. Tory leaders who lose Parliamentary confidence are out on their ear. We write proper rules in the Conservative Party!
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
@RobD Not at all. If Britain is to get back on the right path, it needs to get the Leave virus out of its system. This is a fever that we need to sweat out.
Once we have done so, we will be severely weakened and debilitated, but then we can move into the recovery phase.
So your goal is to see the country crushed into submission and forced back into the EU? I'm genuinely surprised at your comments!
The next PM is to be decided by the votes of about 150,000 people. How many of the posters on here actually have a vote? I can think of five
Big_G_Northwales Miss Plato Young Darth Eagles JohnO Mr Nabavi
Any others?
I thought PlatoSaid she was a floating voter?
Yes and I am for Theresa - It will be interesting to see how Ruth Davidson reacts to Andrea Leadsom, especially her views on gay marriage. She has previously indicated she could lead the Scots Conservatives to a divorce from the UK party
I didn't think of that angle, it will be tough for Ruth to bow to a gay basher like Leadsom.
Oh please fuck off. Just because she prefers civil unions to gay marriage, something the entire Tory party did in 2005, does not mean she is a gay basher. She has not said one insulting word against gay people. You are just acting like a spoilt child now.
MWTP: don't tell other posters to fuck off, or I (or one of the other mods) will ban you.
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So, you want the entire country fucked.
Nice.
Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.
I'm for May as we need experienced hands on the Tiller at a time like this.
Her backbone in standing by the no right for EU citizens to remain in the UK unless EU does the same for UK citizens in contrast to Leadsome going all SJW on the issue reinforces that.
However I agree and fear that a month of metrosexual/remainer monstering of her by the usual suspects might well win it for Iain Duncan Leadsom.
May reveals her lack of humanity with her decision to use EU citizens in the UK as negotiating leverage.
Conservative party members will not welcome such an attitude.
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So your private amusement is more impotent that the welfare of our people?
Your post says a lot more about you than you realised. And it's faintly repellent
@RobD Not at all. If Britain is to get back on the right path, it needs to get the Leave virus out of its system. This is a fever that we need to sweat out.
Once we have done so, we will be severely weakened and debilitated, but then we can move into the recovery phase.
A bit like how the Second World War was needed to sweat that nasty fascist virus out of the system?
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Yes, the bulk of Tory members will be older, home-owning ABs in the SE of England. They voted LEAVE on the whole, but they are sovereigntists not Kippers and they really don't like falling house prices and seeing London in trouble. etc
They will go for May I suspect, as the stability candidate who will calm the economy. Leadsom has to prove to them she can also bring stability - EEA etc - but that will be very hard for her, as she has the backing of the nutters.
The Tories voted for IDS. Leadsom is interesting (in a morbid, curious way) and will therefore get attention. In a world we vote for Brexit and Corbyn, don't count anything out.
Tories voted for IDS in a time of economic stability, and prosperity, and when their vote didn't really count anyway.
They are now voting inna time of epochal economic instability, at a time when Britain really could break up, or break down, and they are voting for the prime minister who has to fix this. And stabilise the property market. This will concentrate minds.
It will be May.
There you go again, applying logic and rational thought to the problem. Politics doesn't work that way at the moment.
There is a more reliable method....
Put the two candidate mugshots on the floor. Get a cat. Get it drunk. Get it very drunk. Tie some catnip to a nearby record player. Whichever candidate the cat throws up on will win the vote.
I find myself in the odd situation of now rooting for the Daily Mail as it does a six week hatchet job on Leadsom. Or are they going to change?
Media needs to learn lessons from the Remain campaign. Clever wordplay, sneering at Leadsom's faith, mocking her views on adoption? Fucking stupid.
It will make the members' hackles rise. The rule should be: if you're a metropolitan luvvie and you don't want PM Leadsom, stfu.
Indeed. Metro elite Tories sneering at Leadsom should remember that they just lost the EU referendum.
Luckily for May she doesn't do sneering and doesn't come across as posho metrosexual. She comes across as boring but quite clever and competent grammar school girl. That will do, for now. in the absence of Churchill or Thatcher.
May is definately the superior candidate but people going round behaving like tossers won't help the party when members' assistance is required at election time. Their behaviour is utterly repulsive to the extent that I almost want Leadsom to win.
When do the ballots actually get sent out to Tory members? I presume the ERS provides the services for the Tories?
There is time for Leadsom to build up a head of steam in a Corbynlike manner. Remember Corbyn did win the Labour members vote and would have won without three quidders. It is entirely possible that Leadsom could end up putting the Tories in the exact same spot that Labour is in.
The only question then would be what the Tory rules are for a leader who is challenged, do they automatically get a right to go to the members vote or does a no confidence vote by MPs successfully kick them out?
A good question.
But I think they'd have to give Leadsom some time to see if she's as bad as some fear. There is a chance that she's not as bad as she looks at the moment, and that she tries to take the opposite approach from Corbyn and take her MPs with her.
I can imagine some pro-May MPs are already thinking of what their red lines would be.
The next PM is to be decided by the votes of about 150,000 people. How many of the posters on here actually have a vote? I can think of five
Big_G_Northwales Miss Plato Young Darth Eagles JohnO Mr Nabavi
Any others?
I thought PlatoSaid she was a floating voter?
Yes and I am for Theresa - It will be interesting to see how Ruth Davidson reacts to Andrea Leadsom, especially her views on gay marriage. She has previously indicated she could lead the Scots Conservatives to a divorce from the UK party
I didn't think of that angle, it will be tough for Ruth to bow to a gay basher like Leadsom.
Mr. Jessop, oh aye, there are plenty of muppets on both sides.
Had a chat with a friend today who said she'd switched off Facebook etc for the last few weeks because people on both sides were just going nuts over the referendum and then the result.
As an aside, more people tend to buy fantasy when there's economic turbulence, so it's not all bad news.
My Facebook timeline remains entirely untroubled by anything remotely resembling a polemic, a slogan, a homily or any kind of incoherent political or economic rambling. My friends are awesome. Mind you, it's hard to find anything else but that on dear old PB, with perhaps a smidgeon of de haut en bas condescension from Mr Meeks.
Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?
Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now. It makes me want to vote Leave all over again .
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So, you want the entire country fucked.
Nice.
Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.
Makes a change from blaming everything on Thatcher
@RobD No, that ship has sailed. Britain will not return to the EU for a generation, if ever.
But the fantasies of closing the borders and repelling all boarders has to be seen to fail before it will be abandoned.
But the borders will never be "closed", neither candidate is proposing that.
Yes, myself a previous avid UKIPer was well aware of the reality that even with net migration sub 100k or even 0. There could be 3million people coming and 3million people going and I wouldn't give a damn. The risk of increasing food imports or raised impetus to concrete over England's wonderful green belt would be decreased. Britain is multicultural and diverse whatever the state does now - everyone sensible accepts that is irreversible.
You have to hand it to Leadsom. She's judged the politics of the Brexit referendum better than anyone else in the party. I think she's being hugely underestimated by most of the people who are horrified by her rise.
Leadsom is Thatcher. Watch as her speech gets slower and slower and transforms into Thatcher.
Mrs Thatcher: a paragon of honesty, with a great ministerial career behind her before she became PM. Mrs Leadson: opposes gay marriages and doesn't want Brexit to slow subsidies to renewables.
You have to hand it to Leadsom. She's judged the politics of the Brexit referendum better than anyone else in the party. I think she's being hugely underestimated by most of the people who are horrified by her rise.
If Leadsom wins and Corbyn stays it ought to present a huge opportunity for the LDs. Whether they make anything of it is another matter.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Yes, the bulk of Tory members will be older, home-owning ABs in the SE of England. They voted LEAVE on the whole, but they are sovereigntists not Kippers and they really don't like falling house prices and seeing London in trouble. etc
They will go for May I suspect, as the stability candidate who will calm the economy. Leadsom has to prove to them she can also bring stability - EEA etc - but that will be very hard for her, as she has the backing of the nutters.
Unless May slips up and a careless comment makes her seem less than committed to Brexiting, which seems unlikely, I'd think she'd play well in the Shires.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Yes, the bulk of Tory members will be older, home-owning ABs in the SE of England. They voted LEAVE on the whole, but they are sovereigntists not Kippers and they really don't like falling house prices and seeing London in trouble. etc
They will go for May I suspect, as the stability candidate who will calm the economy. Leadsom has to prove to them she can also bring stability - EEA etc - but that will be very hard for her, as she has the backing of the nutters.
The Tories voted for IDS. Leadsom is interesting (in a morbid, curious way) and will therefore get attention. In a world we vote for Brexit and Corbyn, don't count anything out.
Tories voted for IDS in a time of economic stability, and prosperity, and when their vote didn't really count anyway.
They are now voting inna time of epochal economic instability, at a time when Britain really could break up, or break down, and they are voting for the prime minister who has to fix this. And stabilise the property market. This will concentrate minds.
It will be May.
There you go again, applying logic and rational thought to the problem. Politics doesn't work that way at the moment.
There is a more reliable method....
Put the two candidate mugshots on the floor. Get a cat. Get it drunk. Get it very drunk. Tie some catnip to a nearby record player. Whichever candidate the cat throws up on will win the vote.
Beats logic and reason any day.
Probably correct; by definition the people who are still members of a political party are deeply strange. And they often behave in a deeply strange way.
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So, you want the entire country fucked.
Nice.
Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.
So you think they should have shown deference to their "betters" like in the old days?
You really don't get the concept of Democracy, do you?
Oops ......this won't fit Tuscany Tysons narrative at all. It's only the Racist , xenophobic little Englanders that do this sort of thing don't you know........
"A man has been arrested by Italian police investigating the killing of a Nigerian immigrant which the government has condemned as a racist attack. Police say a row broke out at Fermo on Italy's west coast when racist abuse was hurled at the partner of Emmanuel Chidi Namdi, 36"
Leadsom is Thatcher. Watch as her speech gets slower and slower and transforms into Thatcher.
Mrs Thatcher: a paragon of honesty, with a great ministerial career behind her before she became PM. Mrs Leadson: opposes gay marriages and doesn't want Brexit to slow subsidies to renewables.
Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?
Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
Is it a Gulfstream?
lol. How soon before you get your new toy? Or is it more of a fantasy per my Mulsanne turbo savings jar.
Please make sure you are using CrowdScores to get your football scores! Probably the fastest growing sports app in the world! Very highly rated on Android and iOS.
One day it will have every score from every competitive game of sport everywhere in the world: from Euro 2016, to under 11 netball.
@RobD Not at all. If Britain is to get back on the right path, it needs to get the Leave virus out of its system. This is a fever that we need to sweat out.
Once we have done so, we will be severely weakened and debilitated, but then we can move into the recovery phase.
A bit like how the Second World War was needed to sweat that nasty fascist virus out of the system?
I'd hate to think that Cameron's WW3 comments might have swung voters the wrong way. That couldn't be true......
I'm puzzled. All these Leavers were quite at ease with incurring an avoidable recession for a perceived long term advantage are now shocked that I might think along similar lines.
In case any one has not seen this, the Lib Dems are starting to select PPCs again in case there is an early election.
JJ has already mention that Julian Huppert is restanding in Cambridge.
Here in St Albans we have been nominated as an all women shortlist with hustings later this month.
Foolish to select candidates before they know whether there'll be 172 sitting MPs looking for a new party. And that assumes a Leadsom victory doesn't mean 50 Tories (or more) doing the same!
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So you want to see absolute ruin, just to say I TOLD YOU SO?
You really are an adolescent jerk.
He's not the only Remainer here to take that attitude, but he's probably the most open about it.
I've been outvoted in various elections over the years, but would never want the country to fail because I felt being right was more important than the country succeeding. The attitude is a complete mystery to me, and yet it's undeniably there.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Yes, the bulk of Tory members will be older, home-owning ABs in the SE of England. They voted LEAVE on the whole, but they are sovereigntists not Kippers and they really don't like falling house prices and seeing London in trouble. etc
They will go for May I suspect, as the stability candidate who will calm the economy. Leadsom has to prove to them she can also bring stability - EEA etc - but that will be very hard for her, as she has the backing of the nutters.
The Tories voted for IDS. Leadsom is interesting (in a morbid, curious way) and will therefore get attention. In a world we vote for Brexit and Corbyn, don't count anything out.
Tories voted for IDS in a time of economic stability, and prosperity, and when their vote didn't really count anyway.
They are now voting inna time of epochal economic instability, at a time when Britain really could break up, or break down, and they are voting for the prime minister who has to fix this. And stabilise the property market. This will concentrate minds.
It will be May.
There you go again, applying logic and rational thought to the problem. Politics doesn't work that way at the moment.
There is a more reliable method....
Put the two candidate mugshots on the floor. Get a cat. Get it drunk. Get it very drunk. Tie some catnip to a nearby record player. Whichever candidate the cat throws up on will win the vote.
Beats logic and reason any day.
Probably correct; by definition the people who are still members of a political party are deeply strange. And they often behave in a deeply strange way.
When I was Leader of the Council, every so often I would bite one of my colleagues, usually at random but frequently drawing blood. Most didn't think it strange at all.
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So, you want the entire country fucked.
Nice.
Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.
Cameron should have made a better argument. Or better yet, not agreed to have a referendum. The Left loved to blame Thatcher for everything. Let's point to Blair, a man who traduced and discredited the office of Prime Minister and left a poisonous legacy for his successors.
As a general rule, blaming the voters is intellectually and morally bankrupt. Don't like democracy? Move to Syria.
Thought: Leadsom has the Cro-Magnon ur-sceptic vote, but she needs to show that she can win a General Election, and be centrist and sensible.
She will be forced to tack left - the markets will demand it as much as MPs. I bet she will opt for EEA status. Which will annoy some of her supporters.
One assumes a large chunk of the 150k Tory vote is in London and the Home Counties?
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
Yes, the bulk of Tory members will be older, home-owning ABs in the SE of England. They voted LEAVE on the whole, but they are sovereigntists not Kippers and they really don't like falling house prices and seeing London in trouble. etc
They will go for May I suspect, as the stability candidate who will calm the economy. Leadsom has to prove to them she can also bring stability - EEA etc - but that will be very hard for her, as she has the backing of the nutters.
The Tories voted for IDS. Leadsom is interesting (in a morbid, curious way) and will therefore get attention. In a world we vote for Brexit and Corbyn, don't count anything out.
Tories voted for IDS in a time of economic stability, and prosperity, and when their vote didn't really count anyway.
They are now voting inna time of epochal economic instability, at a time when Britain really could break up, or break down, and they are voting for the prime minister who has to fix this. And stabilise the property market. This will concentrate minds.
It will be May.
There you go again, applying logic and rational thought to the problem. Politics doesn't work that way at the moment.
There is a more reliable method....
Put the two candidate mugshots on the floor. Get a cat. Get it drunk. Get it very drunk. Tie some catnip to a nearby record player. Whichever candidate the cat throws up on will win the vote.
Beats logic and reason any day.
Probably correct; by definition the people who are still members of a political party are deeply strange. And they often behave in a deeply strange way.
When I was Leader of the Council, every so often I would bite one of my colleagues, usually at random but frequently drawing blood. Most didn't think it strange at all.
When I was Leader of the Council, I occasionally failed to come up with the most right wing answer to a given question, and then my colleagues would bite me.
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
Alistair I've always admired you and often agreed with you, but I am really hoping that comment was a joke.
Just as I was adamantly opposed to Corbyn winning because I foresaw that he would do serious damage to the Labour Party (although I never foresaw that he would be quite this bad, or so comprehensively discredit the ideals of the metropolitan left in the eyes of the rest of the land) so we have to have May now.
For why? Because to quote a certain person, 'you can't play politics with people's jobs and people's services.' Andrea Leadsom would be luxury in opposition. In government she would be a nightmare and might even cause the full implosion of our economy and system of government. Surely that's not what you want?
As a metropolitan liberal who is routinely accused of sneering at bumpkins, I want Andrea Leadsom to win.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
So, you want the entire country fucked.
Nice.
Everything that's happening now is an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote. If the country is fucked it's the fault of the people arguing to vote against the Prime Minister's position.
Cameron should have made a better argument. Or better yet, not agreed to have a referendum. The Left loved to blame Thatcher for everything. Let's point to Blair, a man who traduced and discredited the office of Prime Minister and left a poisonous legacy for his successors.
As a general rule, blaming the voters is intellectually and morally bankrupt. Don't like democracy? Move to Syria.
I wasn't blaming the voters, I was blaming the dishonest Leave campaign.
As far as I can see it's the people on here who were egging it on who are now horrified by what is coming to pass so I won't take any lectures on democracy.
Mr. Meeks, that's rather petty and vindictive. Are you trolling to get a reaction, or are you really content to wish ill upon your country?
Remember, Alastair renounced his allegiance to the country on the 24th. He moves on a higher plane now.
Is it a Gulfstream?
lol. How soon before you get your new toy? Or is it more of a fantasy per my Mulsanne turbo savings jar.
Please make sure you are using CrowdScores to get your football scores! Probably the fastest growing sports app in the world! Very highly rated on Android and iOS.
One day it will have every score from every competitive game of sport everywhere in the world: from Euro 2016, to under 11 netball.
I have played with it, but at the LCFC stadium the bandwidth is overwhelmed at matches. Maybe other networks are better than O2, but I wouldn't count on the reaction time at my favourite ground.
It will be interesting to see how the bookies price up the percentages of the Tory membership vote between La May and La Leadsom. My initial thinking is that it will be something like 65% : 35% respectively.
Comments
Alex Wickham
@WikiGuido
Labour have sent out a press release accusing the Tory leadership contenders of "bitter infighting".
He could have kept quiet and been a senior capo in Boris's Cabinet. What a twat.
Surely we can trust them to come out for Theresa, even if the fruitcakes from the shires come out for Leadsom?
That's reassuring, because Prime Minister Leadsom won't be able to start a nuclear war without the backing of the American president. Oh, just a minute ...
Had a chat with a friend today who said she'd switched off Facebook etc for the last few weeks because people on both sides were just going nuts over the referendum and then the result.
As an aside, more people tend to buy fantasy when there's economic turbulence, so it's not all bad news.
Sensible woman, that Heidi.
Last weekend she held a meeting to discuss the Brexit vote at the council offices in my village. Sadly we couldn't attend (despite it being just ten minutes walk away), but by all accounts it was quite good.
Well I hope Gove is happy now.
But then, I suppose it is, in comparison to the perfect harmony within Labour.
That said, following La May's impressive win in today's second round of voting for the Tory leadership, Ladbrokes have really gone out on a limb by offering 3/1 against Labour winning the most seats at the next GE, way ahead of the rest of the market where their nearest rival is offering odds of 9/4,whilst the big daddy, William Hill's price is a measly 7/4.
As we at PB.com know all too well, often to our cost, Shadsy is a real shrewdie when it comes to laying what may appear initially to be attractive odds, but it does seem to me that on this occasion he may have erred slightly on the generous side.
Anyway, I've had a nifty fifty on the Red team, not so much in the expectation of collecting £200, but more on the prospect of profitably trading out this bet along the way.
DYOR.
Whoever wins the leadership contest will get a polling boost. If that's Leadsom, she'll keep it.
Most constituencies voted Leave. I think the next general election will see a higher turnout than 2015, as some of those Leave voters make sure we stay out of the EU by voting for Leadsom-led Conservatives.
I want to see the entire Leave project discredited and the Conservative party left in utter chaos and disorder. I can think of no better way of achieving that than having a government led by a manifestly inadequate Leaver.
There is time for Leadsom to build up a head of steam in a Corbynlike manner. Remember Corbyn did win the Labour members vote and would have won without three quidders. It is entirely possible that Leadsom could end up putting the Tories in the exact same spot that Labour is in.
The only question then would be what the Tory rules are for a leader who is challenged, do they automatically get a right to go to the members vote or does a no confidence vote by MPs successfully kick them out?
Nice.
Once we have done so, we will be severely weakened and debilitated, but then we can move into the recovery phase.
Don't worry: CrowdScores is completely unaffected by Brexit. (In fact, quite a lot of sales are Euro or US$ denominated, so we get a bit of a boost.)
How to run a leadership campaign competently, knife your enemy - and elect a female leader.
May reveals her lack of humanity with her decision to use EU citizens in the UK as negotiating leverage.
Conservative party members will not welcome such an attitude.
Note: I am not a Conservative member.
Your post says a lot more about you than you realised. And it's faintly repellent
But the fantasies of closing the borders and repelling all boarders has to be seen to fail before it will be abandoned.
There is a more reliable method....
Put the two candidate mugshots on the floor. Get a cat. Get it drunk. Get it very drunk. Tie some catnip to a nearby record player. Whichever candidate the cat throws up on will win the vote.
Beats logic and reason any day.
But I think they'd have to give Leadsom some time to see if she's as bad as some fear. There is a chance that she's not as bad as she looks at the moment, and that she tries to take the opposite approach from Corbyn and take her MPs with her.
I can imagine some pro-May MPs are already thinking of what their red lines would be.
Theresa needs to get her position clear. Carrying on as we have is not an option.
Leadsom is Thatcher. Watch as her speech gets slower and slower and transforms into Thatcher.
The risk of increasing food imports or raised impetus to concrete over England's wonderful green belt would be decreased. Britain is multicultural and diverse whatever the state does now - everyone sensible accepts that is irreversible.
Mrs Leadson: opposes gay marriages and doesn't want Brexit to slow subsidies to renewables.
I'm not really getting the comparison.
That may come back to haunt her. Or not. We shall see.
JJ has already mention that Julian Huppert is restanding in Cambridge.
Here in St Albans we have been nominated as an all women shortlist with hustings later this month.
You really don't get the concept of Democracy, do you?
"A man has been arrested by Italian police investigating the killing of a Nigerian immigrant which the government has condemned as a racist attack.
Police say a row broke out at Fermo on Italy's west coast when racist abuse was hurled at the partner of Emmanuel Chidi Namdi, 36"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36733575
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VRRWuryb4k
One day it will have every score from every competitive game of sport everywhere in the world: from Euro 2016, to under 11 netball.
I've been outvoted in various elections over the years, but would never want the country to fail because I felt being right was more important than the country succeeding. The attitude is a complete mystery to me, and yet it's undeniably there.
As a general rule, blaming the voters is intellectually and morally bankrupt. Don't like democracy? Move to Syria.
I'd reckon a lot of Tory members were either head girls themselves or married women who had been head girls, so May might not be boring to them!
Just as I was adamantly opposed to Corbyn winning because I foresaw that he would do serious damage to the Labour Party (although I never foresaw that he would be quite this bad, or so comprehensively discredit the ideals of the metropolitan left in the eyes of the rest of the land) so we have to have May now.
For why? Because to quote a certain person, 'you can't play politics with people's jobs and people's services.' Andrea Leadsom would be luxury in opposition. In government she would be a nightmare and might even cause the full implosion of our economy and system of government. Surely that's not what you want?
As far as I can see it's the people on here who were egging it on who are now horrified by what is coming to pass so I won't take any lectures on democracy.