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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In many ways Andrea Leadsom looks like Britain’s Sarah Pali

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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Michael Gove can now be backed at 34 for next Conservative party leader on Betfair for large sums. Someone seems to think it's all over for him.

    Maybe related to this tweet: @elliotttimes

    Team Gove talking down prospects -Boles text did real damage they say
    Hmm... if it were really an accident.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    May 199
    Leadsom 84
    Gove 46
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Gove back to 25
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Round 2 Results :

    Gove 46.. Leadsom 84 .. May 199
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044

    RobD said:

    There was talk in the Telegraph of China being interested in a deal. Surely that would be difficult given steel prices?

    One big advantage of leaving the EU is that we can protect our steel industry with tariffs if necessary. Another is that we can do a Free Trade Deal with China. Or so we are told, often by the same person.
    We could have done a steel deal in the EU but Cameron vetoed it.

    Ironically the exchange rate is priobably Port Talbots biggest friend atm. Chinese steel has become 10% more expensive overnight
    Yes, but labour is - what - 15% of the costs of Port Talbot steel?

    85% of the cost is coal and iron ore (as there is no meaningful indigenous supply of either in the UK), and they both move with Sterling.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    edited July 2016
    Result in

    Gove out

    May 199

    Leadsom 84

    Gove 46
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965

    Mr. Pulpstar, what is the meaning of a bayesian market?

    It means essentially that people are betting with more knowledge, so the outsider will lose.

    P (Gove dropping out) n (Someone knows he has fewest votes)
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Now 400 !
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gove = epic fail.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Oof, 1 off 200.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Gove at 270!!!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044

    Mr. Pulpstar, what is the meaning of a bayesian market?

    It a market for Bayesians, idiot.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    "Currently planned to be 9th September" indicating it could change?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044

    kingbongo said:

    can't believe Leadsom has secured a role in government at all - all her candidature has done for me is highlight how poor the current crop of politicos is - the left of the labour party have gone from Foot to Corbyn and the right of the tory party from Joseph to Leadsom - in the middle are massed ranks of PR-based no marks and people who think Michael Gove is clever rather than just good at sounding smart to a certain sort of tory.

    as a centre right socially liberal tory I think any party member who doesn't see May as the least bad candidate in the most difficult climate at least since Suez is just too sad for words, and I will despair for our country should we have the misfortune to be lumped with Leadsom as PM

    Cheer up. There's still some talent around: Rory Stewart comes to mind.
    Although he's also a man who might have... errr... padded his CV somewhat.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    When will next PM is woman market payout ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, what is the meaning of a bayesian market?

    It a market for Bayesians, idiot.
    A market for bayesian idiots?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115
    2nd female PM now almost a certainty.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited July 2016
    TGOHF said:

    When will next PM is woman market payout ?

    Events.....

    All-women shortlists eat your heart out.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    There was talk in the Telegraph of China being interested in a deal. Surely that would be difficult given steel prices?

    One big advantage of leaving the EU is that we can protect our steel industry with tariffs if necessary. Another is that we can do a Free Trade Deal with China. Or so we are told, often by the same person.
    We could have done a steel deal in the EU but Cameron vetoed it.

    Ironically the exchange rate is priobably Port Talbots biggest friend atm. Chinese steel has become 10% more expensive overnight
    Yes, but labour is - what - 15% of the costs of Port Talbot steel?

    85% of the cost is coal and iron ore (as there is no meaningful indigenous supply of either in the UK), and they both move with Sterling.
    I'm sorry to say it (particularly as members of my family work there) but Port Talbot should close. It's a proto-Rover in waiting.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    How many other countries have elected their second female leader?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Result in

    May 199 - Leadsom 84 - Gove 46

    Everything as predicted, the only surprise so far has been Crabb retiring so soon – and that was hardly a shock.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So the Conservatives do believe in all-women shortlists after all.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    2nd female PM now almost a certainty.

    Almost?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    560.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Pulpstar, cheers.

    Mr. 1000, if you can't say anything nice, comment on ConHome.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    How many other countries have elected their second female leader?

    Bangladesh.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044

    Result in

    Gove out

    May 199

    Leadsom 84

    Gove 46

    So 60% to May, 26% to Leadsom, 14% to Gove.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760

    Germans going off the idea of open borders. Ironic since they are now probably closer to the brits.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/studie-zustimmung-zur-willkommenskultur-ist-deutlich-gesunken-14328870.html
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Theresa May - 199

    Andrea Leadsom - 84

    Michael Gove - 46
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,044

    Mr. Pulpstar, cheers.

    Mr. 1000, if you can't say anything nice, comment on ConHome.

    I was just being silly, sorry.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    So the Conservatives do believe in all-women shortlists after all.

    :lol:
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,875
    Will Andrea "fight on and fight to win" ? :smiley:
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    edited July 2016
    Well, that was boring.

    When do we find out if we're having a full or truncated contest for the membership's vote?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. 1000, I know :p
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: In fact, three out of the four Prime/First Ministers of the United Kingdom will now be women. No better time for women in politics.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    How many other countries have elected their second female leader?

    Bangladesh (four now), Finland, Haiti, Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Senegal, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sao Tome and Principe.

    Not unique then!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,879
    I can't imagine that Boles' e-mail did his candidate any good (was that the intention?)
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    84 for Leadsom? Give me a break. Are these people mad?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Off the top of my head that's not too bad for leadsom from a standing start, and considering the huge remain briefings against her.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited July 2016
    AndyJS said:

    2nd female PM now almost a certainty.

    Almost?
    Both could fall under a bus or get engulfed by a scandal etc. But the chances are vanishingly small of course...
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Looks like we get 60days to examine Mrs Therese 'sharia' May.

    Hope she stays awake.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    84 for Leadsom? Give me a break. Are these people mad?

    Wait until the members have had a say.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,375
    edited July 2016
    FPT
    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    2.8m of them apparently.

    If you're a remainer, that's a bad thing.

    Look what you've done. Look what a mess you've made. Now away you go and think very carefully before voting again.

    TBH, I can't quite decide what's made me happier - getting Brexit, or seeing 2.8m vote for the first time/or since the 80s.

    It's such a massive vote for democracy. These voters weren't feted by the media at all - the young were endlessly and still didn't bother much.
    They had the "wrong sort of vote" for most of the media, who were frantically trying to show them football to get them to stay at home :smiley:
    Scheduling the election during Euro2016 was so obvious. Remain screwed up in so many ways. They thought they'd be way ahead and could rely on football to crowd out any late Leave coverage too.
    Scheduling the vote when tonnes of national flags are up in provincial England wasn't the smartest idea in hindsight.
    The Mars bar TV adverts/packaging saying Believe was a corker. I instantly saw those charging knights on horseback, trooping the colour et al extras as synonymous with Brexit.

    I've just seen it again and it's still as strong. I barely noticed it was about confectionery.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC5bfQgSY9Y
    :smiley: Thanks for posting that. Hadn't seen it before, very entertaining, very funny. Killing three birds with stone, I take it.
    Sunil totally ripped that ad off. But now we know. It was Mars wot won it.
    It was The Sunil wot won it!

    Our "ad" dates from April:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/719927141564051456
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Indigo said:

    I've said it before and I will continue to do so Andrea Leadsom is toxic. Any half decent opposition worth its name would destroy her - fortunately for her we have no such opposition so she may get away with it...for now.

    As a Lib Dem I hope she wins as there's plenty of ammo to use against her...not so much with Theresa May

    If you can get Tim Whatshisname to generate some sort of public profile so people actually give him a hearing.
    If Leadsom wins I suspect Tim will be leading a much larger troop in 2020. He may well do anyway if the Tory right continue to display their normal lack of self perception to their electability.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I guess Andrea Leadsom now needs to decide whether it is tenable for her to continue to seek to lead the Conservative party and the country with the support of only a quarter of the Conservative Parliamentary party.

    I expect that her answer will be yes.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Let the gnashing of the teeth of lefties begin now. :D
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    edited July 2016

    kingbongo said:

    can't believe Leadsom has secured a role in government at all - all her candidature has done for me is highlight how poor the current crop of politicos is - the left of the labour party have gone from Foot to Corbyn and the right of the tory party from Joseph to Leadsom - in the middle are massed ranks of PR-based no marks and people who think Michael Gove is clever rather than just good at sounding smart to a certain sort of tory. as a centre right socially liberal tory I think any party member who doesn't see May as the least bad candidate in the most difficult climate at least since Suez is just too sad for words, and I will despair for our country should we have the misfortune to be lumped with Leadsom as PM

    You left out the allegations that she eats babies.
    Does the brain massaging tenderise them?

    http://tinyurl.com/zam7zw8
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    May 60.5%
    Leadsom 25.5%
    Gove 14.0%
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    Next Party Leaders - Candidate Eliminated - 2nd Tory Ballot
    Michael Gove Winner
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I was sanguine after the Brexit vote. Now I'm scared. I shall endeavor to keep a stiff upper lip. We have a heavy responsibility.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    2nd female PM now almost a certainty.

    Does PM remain PM if Parliament is dissolved? I think the answer to that is yes. However if Parliament were to be dissolved before the leadership election concludes, I don't think HMQ would appoint the new leader as PM, rather you would end up with the strange situation that a GE campaign would take place with Cameron as PM while (presumably) May campaigned as leader.

    You can definitely see scenarios where this Parliament doesn't make it to September. Not likely ones, but it's possible.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,375

    Result in

    Gove out

    May 199

    Leadsom 84

    Gove 46

    Theresa "May" be Prime Minister at this rate!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    DanSmith said:

    84 for Leadsom? Give me a break. Are these people mad?

    Wait until the members have had a say.
    Hmm. For some reason that doesn't give me a comforting feeling. Who knows what mad bandwagon can be got up by early September.

    I really didn't think things could get much worse for the UK. But now?

    I feel distinctly ill.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So, tax returns...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Polruan said:

    2nd female PM now almost a certainty.

    Does PM remain PM if Parliament is dissolved? I think the answer to that is yes. However if Parliament were to be dissolved before the leadership election concludes, I don't think HMQ would appoint the new leader as PM, rather you would end up with the strange situation that a GE campaign would take place with Cameron as PM while (presumably) May campaigned as leader.

    You can definitely see scenarios where this Parliament doesn't make it to September. Not likely ones, but it's possible.
    I believe so, you don't need a Parliament to have a PM.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Calm down Theresa, you haven't won yet.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    FPT

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    2.8m of them apparently.

    If you're a remainer, that's a bad thing.

    Look what you've done. Look what a mess you've made. Now away you go and think very carefully before voting again.

    TBH, I can't quite decide what's made me happier - getting Brexit, or seeing 2.8m vote for the first time/or since the 80s.

    It's such a massive vote for democracy. These voters weren't feted by the media at all - the young were endlessly and still didn't bother much.
    They had the "wrong sort of vote" for most of the media, who were frantically trying to show them football to get them to stay at home :smiley:
    Scheduling the election during Euro2016 was so obvious. Remain screwed up in so many ways. They thought they'd be way ahead and could rely on football to crowd out any late Leave coverage too.
    Scheduling the vote when tonnes of national flags are up in provincial England wasn't the smartest idea in hindsight.
    The Mars bar TV adverts/packaging saying Believe was a corker. I instantly saw those charging knights on horseback, trooping the colour et al extras as synonymous with Brexit.

    I've just seen it again and it's still as strong. I barely noticed it was about confectionery.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC5bfQgSY9Y
    :smiley: Thanks for posting that. Hadn't seen it before, very entertaining, very funny. Killing three birds with stone, I take it.
    Sunil totally ripped that ad off. But now we know. It was Mars wot won it.
    It was The Sunil wot won it!

    Our "ad" dates from April:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/719927141564051456
    I withdraw my previous remarks and apologise unreservedly your Highness. :)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    So, tax returns...

    Damp squib comes to mind.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT: Hannan tried to set the right tone

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8yadFh0R8E

    I love Dan Hannan. That's exactly the right tone. (Much, much better than Farage.)
    I am a Hannanite. Sounds biblical. I like it. Not sure if he's a hard Brexiter. If so, he's a heretic! Burn him!
    I am a Hannanite as well. As I understand it Hannan is a free trade libertarian. I think he would mostly be quite happy with EEA, but he believes (as I do) that the borders of the United Kingdom should be under the control of the elected representatives and institutions of the British people. This is far from meaning that he thinks we should even reduce immigration, i suspect quite the opposite, just that the number of people and the conditions of entry should be decided by our parliament. Its basically the right-wing communitarian view (which I also lean towards) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communitarianism#Responsive_communitarianism_movement
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    DanSmith said:

    84 for Leadsom? Give me a break. Are these people mad?

    Wait until the members have had a say.
    Hmm. For some reason that doesn't give me a comforting feeling. Who knows what mad bandwagon can be got up by early September.

    I really didn't think things could get much worse for the UK. But now?

    I feel distinctly ill.
    That's what I mean actually, Leadsom is going to get a month to build up momentum and introduce herself to the members. Is going to be close, and the Tories are staring a Corbyn situation in the face.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,375
    edited July 2016
    RobD said:

    How many other countries have elected their second female leader?

    Bangladesh (four now), Finland, Haiti, Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Senegal, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sao Tome and Principe.

    Not unique then!
    Bangladesh is TWO! Just they had multiple terms!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheikh_Hasina
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khaleda_Zia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Bangladesh
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Leadsom about twice as popular with her parliamentary colleagues as Corbyn is with his.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PCollinsTimes: After a round of TV interviews of excruciating incompetence, 84 Tory MPs think Andrea Leadsom should be PM. Extraordinary.
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    All boils down to the blue-rinse nutters in the country then to decide on who presides over the destruction of our communities - could we end up with both main parties having unelectable leaders chosen by their party without the support of the majority of their MPs?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    How many other countries have elected their second female leader?

    Bangladesh (four now), Finland, Haiti, Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Senegal, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sao Tome and Principe.

    Not unique then!
    Bangladesh is TWO! Just they had multiple terms!
    Oops, I suppose they were elected four times though!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    @PCollinsTimes: After a round of TV interviews of excruciating incompetence, 84 Tory MPs think Andrea Leadsom should be PM. Extraordinary.

    Or 84 think May shouldn't be PM?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    @PCollinsTimes: After a round of TV interviews of excruciating incompetence, 84 Tory MPs think Andrea Leadsom should be PM. Extraordinary.

    How do you think Michael Gove feels?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    How many other countries have elected their second female leader?

    Bangladesh (four now), Finland, Haiti, Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Senegal, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sao Tome and Principe.

    Not unique then!
    Bangladesh's 4 is actually 2. Shiekh Hasina and Khaleda Zia. They were elected twice each. Not including the last time, when the opposition boycotted the polls.

    Bangladesh hasn't had a male PM since 1991 apart from 2 years of a caretaker government.
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    James Kirkup
    @jameskirkup
    130 MPs who voted for Leadsom/Gove is v close to number who voted Leave. If she's PM, T May will have to work v hard to unite party.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    60% of the parliamentary party members for May, just 25% for Leadsom. Surely the membership aren't going to do a Corbyn?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJLandale: It is official. After all their battles, David Davis and Theresa May have just kissed and made up, literally, live on @BBCNewsChannel
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    How many other countries have elected their second female leader?

    Bangladesh (four now), Finland, Haiti, Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Senegal, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sao Tome and Principe.

    Not unique then!
    Bangladesh's 4 is actually 2. Shiekh Hasina and Khaleda Zia. They were elected twice each. Not including the last time, when the opposition boycotted the polls.

    Bangladesh hasn't had a male PM since 1991 apart from 2 years of a caretaker government.
    I've already been chastised by Sunil :(
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,760
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    There was talk in the Telegraph of China being interested in a deal. Surely that would be difficult given steel prices?

    One big advantage of leaving the EU is that we can protect our steel industry with tariffs if necessary. Another is that we can do a Free Trade Deal with China. Or so we are told, often by the same person.
    We could have done a steel deal in the EU but Cameron vetoed it.

    Ironically the exchange rate is priobably Port Talbots biggest friend atm. Chinese steel has become 10% more expensive overnight
    Yes, but labour is - what - 15% of the costs of Port Talbot steel?

    85% of the cost is coal and iron ore (as there is no meaningful indigenous supply of either in the UK), and they both move with Sterling.
    cant see that cost structure myself . Add in energy, processing, overhead and transport and take in to account that scrap is priced in sterling. Id go for 60% RM.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCJLandale: It is official. After all their battles, David Davis and Theresa May have just kissed and made up, literally, live on @BBCNewsChannel

    LOL, I must have missed that.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It will be interesting now to see whom Michael Gove supports. My guess is Theresa May.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,375
    I see the BNP are popular in Bangladesh :)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    MEANWHILE....can we for a moment picture the scene at the Vine household tonight.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Indigo said:

    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT: Hannan tried to set the right tone

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8yadFh0R8E

    I love Dan Hannan. That's exactly the right tone. (Much, much better than Farage.)
    I am a Hannanite. Sounds biblical. I like it. Not sure if he's a hard Brexiter. If so, he's a heretic! Burn him!
    I am a Hannanite as well. As I understand it Hannan is a free trade libertarian. I think he would mostly be quite happy with EEA, but he believes (as I do) that the borders of the United Kingdom should be under the control of the elected representatives and institutions of the British people. This is far from meaning that he thinks we should even reduce immigration, i suspect quite the opposite, just that the number of people and the conditions of entry should be decided by our parliament. Its basically the right-wing communitarian view (which I also lean towards) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communitarianism#Responsive_communitarianism_movement
    Thanks for the link Indigo. Interesting reading.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283

    All boils down to the blue-rinse nutters in the country then to decide on who presides over the destruction of our communities - could we end up with both main parties having unelectable leaders chosen by their party without the support of the majority of their MPs?

    Yep, we really are heading into a looking glass world.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    James Kirkup
    @jameskirkup
    130 MPs who voted for Leadsom/Gove is v close to number who voted Leave. If she's PM, T May will have to work v hard to unite party.

    But there were many Leavers supporting May, so the comparison isn't that simple.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    AndyJS said:

    May 60.5%
    Leadsom 25.5%
    Gove 14.0%

    That's about 60% remain/ 40% Leave

    A swing to Leave of about 5% amongst Conservative MPs.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    All boils down to the blue-rinse nutters in the country then to decide on who presides over the destruction of our communities - could we end up with both main parties having unelectable leaders chosen by their party without the support of the majority of their MPs?

    I think the last member of the blue rinse brigade died about 15 years ago.
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    rcs1000 said:

    kingbongo said:

    can't believe Leadsom has secured a role in government at all - all her candidature has done for me is highlight how poor the current crop of politicos is - the left of the labour party have gone from Foot to Corbyn and the right of the tory party from Joseph to Leadsom - in the middle are massed ranks of PR-based no marks and people who think Michael Gove is clever rather than just good at sounding smart to a certain sort of tory.

    as a centre right socially liberal tory I think any party member who doesn't see May as the least bad candidate in the most difficult climate at least since Suez is just too sad for words, and I will despair for our country should we have the misfortune to be lumped with Leadsom as PM

    Back into the "anyone that disagrees with me is an idiot" fortress! How did that work out for you in the referendum?
    I don't know if you've noticed this, but a lot of Leavers on this board - including MaxPB and myself - have the same reservations about Leadsom.
    Thats a perfectly reasonable position. What I am criticising is the subsegment of opponents who work themselves into a frothy mess over every tenuous criticism.
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    Norm said:

    Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..

    What - fucking nutters?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TOPPING said:

    MEANWHILE....can we for a moment picture the scene at the Vine household tonight.

    Stop it.. can't stop laughing... titters.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Bet Boris is crying into his claret at this very moment. What an opportunity he walked away from if this is the run-off.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TOPPING said:

    MEANWHILE....can we for a moment picture the scene at the Vine household tonight.

    Michael will be sleeping in the spare room tonight.
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    Scott_P said:

    @PCollinsTimes: After a round of TV interviews of excruciating incompetence, 84 Tory MPs think Andrea Leadsom should be PM. Extraordinary.

    How do you think Michael Gove feels?
    Q:How do you think Michael Gove feels?
    "He that lieth down with dogs shall rise up with fleas"
    Osborne and Boles etc.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    So, tax returns...

    Tax returns at dawn.
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    hahahaha. Gove's machiavellian plan ended up to be a fucking car crash.

    May vs Bojo - now that would've been interesting!
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    It will be interesting now to see whom Michael Gove supports. My guess is Theresa May.

    His whole pitch was, "It needs to be a Leaver in charge". Although he's backstabbed people before... I wouldn't put it past him.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    midwinter said:

    Indigo said:

    I've said it before and I will continue to do so Andrea Leadsom is toxic. Any half decent opposition worth its name would destroy her - fortunately for her we have no such opposition so she may get away with it...for now.

    As a Lib Dem I hope she wins as there's plenty of ammo to use against her...not so much with Theresa May

    If you can get Tim Whatshisname to generate some sort of public profile so people actually give him a hearing.
    If Leadsom wins I suspect Tim will be leading a much larger troop in 2020. He may well do anyway if the Tory right continue to display their normal lack of self perception to their electability.
    If centrism was a guarantee of votes or popularity we would have permanent LD majority governments.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,115

    It will be interesting now to see whom Michael Gove supports. My guess is Theresa May.

    Would either of them want his support given that it is the prelude to the knife between the shoulder blades?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Norm said:

    Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..

    What - fucking nutters?
    Are you a Leadsom mole? That sort of language only increases her chances.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Norm said:

    Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..

    The "mendacious incompetent loon" strand?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Keiran is a dope. Andrea for PM; let the best woman win. :D
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCJLandale: It is official. After all their battles, David Davis and Theresa May have just kissed and made up, literally, live on @BBCNewsChannel

    Hope he checked for his wallet afterwards..
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    jonny83 said:

    60% of the parliamentary party members for May, just 25% for Leadsom. Surely the membership aren't going to do a Corbyn?

    Keep praying.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    matt said:

    Scott_P said:
    To be fair, given the turnover of staff at Barclays, I'd be surprised if anyone who was there at the same time as her is still there.
    When I changed jobs in "later life", one firm I'd worked for had gone through so many metamorpheses since that even the personnel department had no record of my ever having worked there. Can't be uncommon, especially if a firm goes out of business.
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