James Kirkup @jameskirkup 130 MPs who voted for Leadsom/Gove is v close to number who voted Leave. If she's PM, T May will have to work v hard to unite party.
If May's camp carry on putting the boot in for the next 6-8 weeks all it will do is guarantee 80 or so Tory MPs that won't vote for anything May wants to do when she gets elected PM.
It reeks of the Government doing no preparation for Brexit before the vote. There are two candidates going to the membership and either could be the Tory leader. Damaging one of them based on trumped up tenuous stories is partisan masochism.
Who will be the first to write the inside story novella on how Gove managed to stab himself to death when going for a colleague with his wife's double handed knife?
You can't choose who supports you. It's like saying LFC are a damaged club because Pope John Paul II is a supporter and a terrible person. It's a poor argument.
How do women get away with wearing that in parliament when men have to wear suits and ties?
Who gives a feck? What politicians wear in the house should be the least of our worries.
Standards, dear boy, standards. As a leader of people who go into dangerous situations I am sure you know that the people who can't be trusted on the little things sure as hell can't be trusted on the big ones.
So we now have X weeks of the great and the sneering of Westminster and the media pouring pontificating scorn onto Leadsome thus driving her into the hearts of the Con members.
Four former Barclays bankers who rigged global interest rates 'like bookmakers trying to nobble a horse in the Grand National' are jailed for a total of more than 17 years
Peter Johnson, 61, and Jonathan Mathew, 35, agreed to fix US dollar Libor Information they submitted affected Libor calculations across all banks Rigging took place in the lead up to the 2008 financial market crash
May's going to lose this. She's going up against someone who will be seen as the second coming of Thatcher being actively supported by Boris Johnson.
Quite possible.
I wonder how long Leadsom will last if she gets it? I mean the party will back her at first but the parliamentary party overwhelmingly don't want her. A year, maybe 2 before a coup?
You never know who will make the best PM. Major was loved but was useless. Maggie was seen as nobody but was perfect. Leadsom fits we right wing loons. May really has no charm. I know that means little but will she have passion when politics is more important than logic? I don't know but I'm backing the mad rightie.
Comparing the leadbangers to momentum is a bit too much though isnt it? With Corbyn he had a long history and they knew they were electing a marxist. Leadsom is just an unknown upon whom (a bit like Brexit) people can project a fantasy of choice.
That's it, isn't it? A blank slate is a fabulous candidate that everyone can project their hopes onto (Mr Obama...) And Ms Leadsom is defenitely that. We know nothing of her beliefs, except that she used to think leaving the EU was a disaster, and now thinks it's awesome.
A grossly simplistic characterisation of her views.
Four former Barclays bankers who rigged global interest rates 'like bookmakers trying to nobble a horse in the Grand National' are jailed for a total of more than 17 years
Peter Johnson, 61, and Jonathan Mathew, 35, agreed to fix US dollar Libor Information they submitted affected Libor calculations across all banks Rigging took place in the lead up to the 2008 financial market crash
I think May will squish Leadsom during the campaign.
May will lack the flamboyance of Johnson or the ultra-ease of Cameron but she is a high-level political operator who communicates very well and has a lot of experience.
I also disagree that she will be a vote for Remain. May is not a Europhile and neither is she stupid or stubborn.
She will understand - indeed, her nomination speech last week struck the perfect tone - that the Brexit voters won and any attempt to dissemble or ignore will tear the Tories apart.
Personally, I think she will be a very good PM for these troubled times.
@SamCoatesTimes: Farage endorsement underlines narrative emerging amongst May supporting MPs that Leadsom is the Corbyn of the Tories https://t.co/MGJm9ZP5I6
Not sure that's a great narrative for May's supporters: describing Leadsom as the candidate the parliamentary establishment are desperate to block but who represents the views of members.
"It was always sensible to assume a Leave supporter would inherit Number 10 from David Cameron"
It seems, by his own admission, that, no, it wasn't.
Here, in one sentence, we have to two things that are fundamentally wrong with political predicting at the moment:
1. we have the polling industry getting just about everything horribly wrong (yes, you can point to one or two pollsters who weren't bad but what use is that if you don't know ahead of the event which pollster will be the least worst). Pollsters are getting it wrong because they rely on asking the right questions and then manipulating the numbers to fit with their model of what the future electorate will be. But the electorate is changing in a sea shift and pollsters continue to focus on the wrong questions (forced VI when much of the electorate doesn't like any of the items on the menu); 2. we have the political punditry getting it horribly wrong because they have not understood the paradigm shift, and their models, too, are wrong. For the most part, they are so vested in the old model they cannot imagine the new truths.
I am not claiming any helpful insights here. Just making an observation, expecting to be regularly surprised by voting outcomes in the West in the coming couple of years, and vowing to ignore the predictions of pundits and pollsters alike, while still listening to them and trying to understand the deeper factors driving the new body politic.
@SamCoatesTimes: Farage endorsement underlines narrative emerging amongst May supporting MPs that Leadsom is the Corbyn of the Tories https://t.co/MGJm9ZP5I6
Not sure that's a great narrative for May's supporters: describing Leadsom as the candidate the parliamentary establishment are desperate to block but who represents the views of members.
Four former Barclays bankers who rigged global interest rates 'like bookmakers trying to nobble a horse in the Grand National' are jailed for a total of more than 17 years
Peter Johnson, 61, and Jonathan Mathew, 35, agreed to fix US dollar Libor Information they submitted affected Libor calculations across all banks Rigging took place in the lead up to the 2008 financial market crash
I think May will squish Leadsom during the campaign.
May will lack the flamboyance of Johnson or the ultra-ease of Cameron but she is a high-level political operator who communicates very well and has a lot of experience.
I also disagree that she will be a vote for Remain. May is not a Europhile and neither is she stupid or stubborn.
She will understand - indeed, her nomination speech last week struck the perfect tone - that the Brexit voters won and any attempt to dissemble or ignore will tear the Tories apart.
Personally, I think she will be a very good PM for these troubled times.
And I say that as someone who voted Brexit.
I hope you're right. I think you will be, in this case people will choose experience.
Four former Barclays bankers who rigged global interest rates 'like bookmakers trying to nobble a horse in the Grand National' are jailed for a total of more than 17 years
Peter Johnson, 61, and Jonathan Mathew, 35, agreed to fix US dollar Libor Information they submitted affected Libor calculations across all banks Rigging took place in the lead up to the 2008 financial market crash
Four former Barclays bankers who rigged global interest rates 'like bookmakers trying to nobble a horse in the Grand National' are jailed for a total of more than 17 years
Peter Johnson, 61, and Jonathan Mathew, 35, agreed to fix US dollar Libor Information they submitted affected Libor calculations across all banks Rigging took place in the lead up to the 2008 financial market crash
@SamCoatesTimes: Farage endorsement underlines narrative emerging amongst May supporting MPs that Leadsom is the Corbyn of the Tories https://t.co/MGJm9ZP5I6
Not sure that's a great narrative for May's supporters: describing Leadsom as the candidate the parliamentary establishment are desperate to block but who represents the views of members.
UKIP members.
Perhaps if Andrea Leadsom wins, she'll merge the two parties.
@SamCoatesTimes: Farage endorsement underlines narrative emerging amongst May supporting MPs that Leadsom is the Corbyn of the Tories https://t.co/MGJm9ZP5I6
Not sure that's a great narrative for May's supporters: describing Leadsom as the candidate the parliamentary establishment are desperate to block but who represents the views of members.
UKIP members.
I don't think you could slide a fag paper between the views of many Conservative members and this of many UKIP members; you could get a whole fag packet between those of the parliamentary party and the members.
Who will be the first to write the inside story novella on how Gove managed to stab himself to death when going for a colleague with his wife's double handed knife?
There is a reason Gove isn't declaring his support one suspects. He wants to be Minister For BrExit. He will want to cut a deal for his support and maybe keep his powder dry until he sees who looks like winning in the country.
I think May might be sensible and run a positive campaign. The problem is the metro leftie media is going to sledge Leadsom for the next six weeks and drive her into the arms of the Conservative Party members. May will win on her own terms, only to loose because the BBC cant shut the fuck up.
I think May will squish Leadsom during the campaign.
May will lack the flamboyance of Johnson or the ultra-ease of Cameron but she is a high-level political operator who communicates very well and has a lot of experience.
I also disagree that she will be a vote for Remain. May is not a Europhile and neither is she stupid or stubborn.
She will understand - indeed, her nomination speech last week struck the perfect tone - that the Brexit voters won and any attempt to dissemble or ignore will tear the Tories apart.
Personally, I think she will be a very good PM for these troubled times.
And I say that as someone who voted Brexit.
She is at present largely a proxy for remainers who want to pretend the vote hasn't happened and second referendum idiots. Why did she meet with Branson btw?
At the very least she will now be pushed into positions which expose what she really wants on EEA/EFTA and that will be very revealing to members who want straightforward out.
@SamCoatesTimes: Farage endorsement underlines narrative emerging amongst May supporting MPs that Leadsom is the Corbyn of the Tories https://t.co/MGJm9ZP5I6
Not sure that's a great narrative for May's supporters: describing Leadsom as the candidate the parliamentary establishment are desperate to block but who represents the views of members.
UKIP members.
Perhaps if Andrea Leadsom wins, she'll merge the two parties.
I don't think that the economic news over the next few weeks is going to be entirely to Andrea Leadsom's advantage. See the final afternoon summary here:
Comparing the leadbangers to momentum is a bit too much though isnt it? With Corbyn he had a long history and they knew they were electing a marxist. Leadsom is just an unknown upon whom (a bit like Brexit) people can project a fantasy of choice.
That's it, isn't it? A blank slate is a fabulous candidate that everyone can project their hopes onto (Mr Obama...) And Ms Leadsom is defenitely that. We know nothing of her beliefs, except that she used to think leaving the EU was a disaster, and now thinks it's awesome.
A grossly simplistic characterisation of her views.
OK. List Leadsom's policy positions on things other than the EU?
And that's before the fact that she lied on her CV and in Who's Who, and only updated it when it was obvious she was caught. She claimed to be the Chief Investment Officer in Invesco Perpetual, ffs.
Expect a big push now to get expose Shariah May for her rotten track record and to put her on the spot over her real position on Brexit .At last the chance for a socially conservative government beckons.
Her record on "controlling" immigration is very poor ! For the EU bit. The non-EU bit was well within her remit. She failed [ according to Little Englanders ]
PB Tory smugness may be unbearable for the next few days... years!
Margaret Thatcher in a BBC interview in 1973:
"I don't think there will be a woman Prime Minister in my lifetime."
That was a genius thing to say by her. She downplayed her chances of getting the top job meaning she wasn't the front runner which is a bad thing if you want to be leader of the Conservative party.
@SamCoatesTimes: Farage endorsement underlines narrative emerging amongst May supporting MPs that Leadsom is the Corbyn of the Tories https://t.co/MGJm9ZP5I6
Not sure that's a great narrative for May's supporters: describing Leadsom as the candidate the parliamentary establishment are desperate to block but who represents the views of members.
UKIP members.
I don't think you could slide a fag paper between the views of many Conservative members and this of many UKIP members; you could get a whole fag packet between those of the parliamentary party and the members.
Not really, I'm a member and go to various events. 40% of members voted to remain, and of the 60% who were in the leave camp I'd say around half voted on the basis of immigration to a great extent and the rest voted on the basis of just getting out of the EU.
At a push I'd guess that Leadsom has a ceiling of around 40% in terms of her support in the membership, but that could go up if May's campaign goes badly or there is any evidence that she won't serve A50.
It's very amusing that Andrea Leadsom's main claim as the non-Establishment candidate is that she's a talented and experienced investment banker.
who had an epiphany and found her true calling - to free hard working men of Britain from the bureaucratic chains of the Europen Union and launch us into the age of prosperity. Or majorly fuck shit up.
Expect a big push now to get expose Shariah May for her rotten track record and to put her on the spot over her real position on Brexit .At last the chance for a socially conservative government beckons.
Her record on "controlling" immigration is very poor ! For the EU bit. The non-EU bit was well within her remit. She failed [ according to Little Englanders ]
I've not really been concentrating; has any interviewer yet taken the opportunity to ask May to spell out how her implementation of the Brexit vote will resolve the unreasonable rights accorded to cat-owning illegal immigrants?
Comparing the leadbangers to momentum is a bit too much though isnt it? With Corbyn he had a long history and they knew they were electing a marxist. Leadsom is just an unknown upon whom (a bit like Brexit) people can project a fantasy of choice.
That's it, isn't it? A blank slate is a fabulous candidate that everyone can project their hopes onto (Mr Obama...) And Ms Leadsom is defenitely that. We know nothing of her beliefs, except that she used to think leaving the EU was a disaster, and now thinks it's awesome.
A grossly simplistic characterisation of her views.
OK. List Leadsom's policy positions on things other than the EU?
And that's before the fact that she lied on her CV and in Who's Who, and only updated it when it was obvious she was caught. She claimed to be the Chief Investment Officer in Invesco Perpetual, ffs.
Expect a big push now to get expose Shariah May for her rotten track record and to put her on the spot over her real position on Brexit .At last the chance for a socially conservative government beckons.
Her record on "controlling" immigration is very poor ! For the EU bit. The non-EU bit was well within her remit. She failed [ according to Little Englanders ]
Failed miserably and it will come back to haunt her over a two month campaign.
They have to truncate this leadership. Two/three weeks is enough. The economy cannot bear ten fucking weeks of instability.
The entire country is effectively without leadership, at one of the most dangerous times in recent history. Since the war, probably.
Why, you signed up to the Andrea Leadsom message that Brexit wouldn't impact on the UK economy.
Sack up you mewling quim
Yo, TSE!
LEAVE 52% REMAIN 48%
Suck it up, bitch!
hahaha!
Looking at your posting name, made me reflect that, given how many characters there are in Game of Thrones, why don't more of them share a name? Everyone seems to have an unique name. Why aren't their more Eddards, or Broms?
Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..
What - fucking nutters?
What are you so bothered about? As a supposed LD you have said yourself your party would benefit from AL as PM (which won't happen anyway).
No one is going to benefit from a prime minister being elected by 100,000 individuals who are so extraordinarily out of touch with reality that they have somehow missed the destruction of whole communities...both urban and rural as a result of spending cuts imposed on local authorities by this government.
If these socially isolated individuals choose to elect a hedge fund managing, tax avoiding politician who wants to put employment regulation back 100 years then this country is doomed.
Andrea Leadsom and those who support her are not the solution - they are the problem !
How do women get away with wearing that in parliament when men have to wear suits and ties?
Who gives a feck? What politicians wear in the house should be the least of our worries.
Standards, dear boy, standards. As a leader of people who go into dangerous situations I am sure you know that the people who can't be trusted on the little things sure as hell can't be trusted on the big ones.
When am I going to wake up from this nightmare? It's been going on for months.
Don't you find it fascinating to see the ancien regime crumbling, and history being made in front of you?
Amazing to hear a self-professed conservative say this. I agree it is fascinating but what the hell replaces the ancien regime? History doesn't suggest a happy ending.
Gutted, but in no way surprised, by Leadsom getting through. Whilst nice to see Theresa crack on to nearly 200 MPs and not engage in dirty tricks, I think it would have done a greater service to the country, and the risks to our economy, to have leant Gove 40 votes and nipped the rise of the right wing UKIP whackjob in the bud.
The Tory Party needs to now get on with this asap. The idea of a leisurely process through to 9 September is a joke. This could all be sorted in 3 weeks, and a new PM by August.
They have to truncate this leadership. Two/three weeks is enough. The economy cannot bear ten fucking weeks of instability.
The entire country is effectively without leadership, at one of the most dangerous times in recent history. Since the war, probably.
Why, you signed up to the Andrea Leadsom message that Brexit wouldn't impact on the UK economy.
Sack up you mewling quim
Yo, TSE!
LEAVE 52% REMAIN 48%
Suck it up, bitch!
hahaha!
Looking at your posting name, made me reflect that, given how many characters there are in Game of Thrones, why don't more of them share a name? Everyone seems to have an unique name. Why aren't their more Eddards, or Broms?
IDS now predicting that UKIP will disappear. #notverygoodatpolitics
Well, it will if Leadsom incorporates UKIP into the Conservative Party, and makes Nigel Farage a cabinet minister.
I plan on voting for her, but there is absolutely no chance of that happening. It would split the Tory party and she'd be beset by cabinet resignation threats/action before it could be completed. So I'm not worried.
Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..
What - fucking nutters?
What are you so bothered about? As a supposed LD you have said yourself your party would benefit from AL as PM (which won't happen anyway).
No one is going to benefit from a prime minister being elected by 100,000 individuals who are so extraordinarily out of touch with reality that they have somehow missed the destruction of whole communities...both urban and rural as a result of spending cuts imposed on local authorities by this government.
If these socially isolated individuals choose to elect a hedge fund managing, tax avoiding politician who wants to put employment regulation back 100 years then this country is doomed.
Andrea Leadsom and those who support her are not the solution - they are the problem !
IDS now predicting that UKIP will disappear. #notverygoodatpolitics
Well, it will if Leadsom incorporates UKIP into the Conservative Party, and makes Nigel Farage a cabinet minister.
I plan on voting for her, but there is absolutely no chance of that happening. It would split the Tory party and she'd be beset by cabinet resignation threats/action before it could be completed. So I'm not worried.
You are quite right there Pauly. I think UKIP will continue to exist and even grow, perhaps under a different name. It depends on whom the new leader is. 2 Parties without leaders and one wishing their leader would disappear.
Comments
Peter Johnson, 61, and Jonathan Mathew, 35, agreed to fix US dollar Libor
Information they submitted affected Libor calculations across all banks
Rigging took place in the lead up to the 2008 financial market crash
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3679057/Four-former-Barclays-bankers-rigged-global-rates-like-bookmakers-trying-nobble-horse-Grand-National-jailed-total-17-years.html#ixzz4DjtMznsQ
All Theresa really has to do is ensure that she has a genuinely committed Brexit bunch dealing with negotiations.
There are more than enough face saving fig leaves available to the UK and EU to balance their supposedly irreconcilable positions.
Scott n'PasteScott P that the Sunil on Sunday actually endorsesI wonder how long Leadsom will last if she gets it? I mean the party will back her at first but the parliamentary party overwhelmingly don't want her. A year, maybe 2 before a coup?
May will lack the flamboyance of Johnson or the ultra-ease of Cameron but she is a high-level political operator who communicates very well and has a lot of experience.
I also disagree that she will be a vote for Remain. May is not a Europhile and neither is she stupid or stubborn.
She will understand - indeed, her nomination speech last week struck the perfect tone - that the Brexit voters won and any attempt to dissemble or ignore will tear the Tories apart.
Personally, I think she will be a very good PM for these troubled times.
And I say that as someone who voted Brexit.
If both are going badly, it will end swiftly
"I don't think there will be a woman Prime Minister in my lifetime."
It seems, by his own admission, that, no, it wasn't.
Here, in one sentence, we have to two things that are fundamentally wrong with political predicting at the moment:
1. we have the polling industry getting just about everything horribly wrong (yes, you can point to one or two pollsters who weren't bad but what use is that if you don't know ahead of the event which pollster will be the least worst). Pollsters are getting it wrong because they rely on asking the right questions and then manipulating the numbers to fit with their model of what the future electorate will be. But the electorate is changing in a sea shift and pollsters continue to focus on the wrong questions (forced VI when much of the electorate doesn't like any of the items on the menu);
2. we have the political punditry getting it horribly wrong because they have not understood the paradigm shift, and their models, too, are wrong. For the most part, they are so vested in the old model they cannot imagine the new truths.
I am not claiming any helpful insights here. Just making an observation, expecting to be regularly surprised by voting outcomes in the West in the coming couple of years, and vowing to ignore the predictions of pundits and pollsters alike, while still listening to them and trying to understand the deeper factors driving the new body politic.
Big_G_Northwales
Miss Plato
Young Darth Eagles
JohnO
Mr Nabavi
Any others?
If Leadsom can look like she will re-assemble the team that won 17 million votes against the odds, she may well win.
https://twitter.com/WinstonMcK/status/751085533045071872
I'll rephrase it more precisely: Hague, IDS and Cameron were all second in the first round of the MP's ballot before winning. @Dannythefink
oh crap...
Can tell you categorically, without hesitation it is two May votes.
I think May might be sensible and run a positive campaign. The problem is the metro leftie media is going to sledge Leadsom for the next six weeks and drive her into the arms of the Conservative Party members. May will win on her own terms, only to loose because the BBC cant shut the fuck up.
At the very least she will now be pushed into positions which expose what she really wants on EEA/EFTA and that will be very revealing to members who want straightforward out.
I wanted to vote for Gove, as reward for shafting Boris, but JohnO 'persuaded' me to back Mrs May
With power comes responsibility.
Such is the legacy of David "why should I do the difficult shit" Cameron (REMAINER).
...she's against gay marriage
...she's in favour of more renewables subsidies
And on the EU, she was in favour of it - saying Brexit would be a disaster - before she was against it.
And that's before the fact that she lied on her CV and in Who's Who, and only updated it when it was obvious she was caught. She claimed to be the Chief Investment Officer in Invesco Perpetual, ffs.
@IanDunt: Leadsom is probably going to win. We're all going to die.
@ChairmanMoet: @IanDunt Only the lucky ones will die
At a push I'd guess that Leadsom has a ceiling of around 40% in terms of her support in the membership, but that could go up if May's campaign goes badly or there is any evidence that she won't serve A50.
http://www.newsweek.com/brexit-view-turkey-britain-membership-free-trade-478332?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTnpWaU5HUXdNbVkzTXpCaCIsInQiOiJGb0FXc1NaZ3FpdEp6MHc4cVNoRjNYMmY5QXJudERCQjFmUUN4NERKcURqZVdjb3RWQ21BQ3VEcno5VUxQSXFiU25paVN2NzRpb1pESUU2YU0xVVpLem1qRXpvNnlPWUN0dUY1NWVJQWNxND0ifQ==
2001 Tory leadership, First round IDS trailed Michael Portillo by 10 votes
2005 Tory leadership, First round David Cameron trailed David Davis by 6 votes
2016 Tory leadership, First round Andrea Leadsom trailed Theresa May by 99 votes
If these socially isolated individuals choose to elect a hedge fund managing, tax avoiding politician who wants to put employment regulation back 100 years then this country is doomed.
Andrea Leadsom and those who support her are not the solution - they are the problem !
The Tory Party needs to now get on with this asap. The idea of a leisurely process through to 9 September is a joke. This could all be sorted in 3 weeks, and a new PM by August.
The economy demands it.
#comfortstatistics
Leadsom has done well to get to the members.
'Amber Rudd is supporting Ms May and has had a good EUref.Methinks she's going up the greasy ladder.'
Having a laugh, she was dropped by Remain after her shouty TV performance with Eagle.
By being a Conservative party member you have WAY more power than almost any regular voter in the UK over who the next PM is !