politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In many ways Andrea Leadsom looks like Britain’s Sarah Pali
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I don't think Kraken is a Tory, if memory servesAndyJS said:
Are you a Leadsom mole? That sort of language only increases her chances.TheKrakenAwakes said:
What - fucking nutters?Norm said:Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..
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The Lib Dems must be able to take advantage of this, surely?TheKrakenAwakes said:All boils down to the blue-rinse nutters in the country then to decide on who presides over the destruction of our communities - could we end up with both main parties having unelectable leaders chosen by their party without the support of the majority of their MPs?
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Erm, who exactly does Theresa May think has been running the country for the "privileged few"?Scott_P said:0 -
My view is that ultimately she is not experienced enough to move from junior minister to Prime Minister. The rest is just the commentariat jumping up and down in pursuit of clicks.ManWithThePlan said:
Thats a perfectly reasonable position. What I am criticising is the subsegment of opponents who work themselves into a frothy mess over every tenuous criticism.rcs1000 said:
I don't know if you've noticed this, but a lot of Leavers on this board - including MaxPB and myself - have the same reservations about Leadsom.ManWithThePlan said:
Back into the "anyone that disagrees with me is an idiot" fortress! How did that work out for you in the referendum?kingbongo said:can't believe Leadsom has secured a role in government at all - all her candidature has done for me is highlight how poor the current crop of politicos is - the left of the labour party have gone from Foot to Corbyn and the right of the tory party from Joseph to Leadsom - in the middle are massed ranks of PR-based no marks and people who think Michael Gove is clever rather than just good at sounding smart to a certain sort of tory.
as a centre right socially liberal tory I think any party member who doesn't see May as the least bad candidate in the most difficult climate at least since Suez is just too sad for words, and I will despair for our country should we have the misfortune to be lumped with Leadsom as PM0 -
Cameron and his chumocracy?DecrepitJohnL said:
Erm, who exactly does Theresa May think has been running the country for the "privileged few"?Scott_P said:twitter.com/sophyridgesky/status/751075336008429568
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Well him banging on about experience would suggest so, but him and May have history!!Richard_Nabavi said:It will be interesting now to see whom Michael Gove supports. My guess is Theresa May.
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Sri Lanka. Mother and daughter.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bangladesh.not_on_fire said:How many other countries have elected their second female leader?
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What are you so bothered about? As a supposed LD you have said yourself your party would benefit from AL as PM (which won't happen anyway).TheKrakenAwakes said:
What - fucking nutters?Norm said:Slightly better result for Leadsom than I expected. She reflects a strand of opinion within the party that deserves to be aired. Still expect a relativelty straightforward May win on the members ballot..
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If you cant play, or are no good at chess, don't go there.rottenborough said:
Yep, we really are heading into a looking glass world.TheKrakenAwakes said:All boils down to the blue-rinse nutters in the country then to decide on who presides over the destruction of our communities - could we end up with both main parties having unelectable leaders chosen by their party without the support of the majority of their MPs?
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Except May barely campaigned for REMAINDavid_Evershed said:
That's about 60% remain/ 40% LeaveAndyJS said:May 60.5%
Leadsom 25.5%
Gove 14.0%
A swing to Leave of about 5% amongst Conservative MPs. 0 -
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AlastairMeeks said:
I guess Andrea Leadsom now needs to decide whether it is tenable for her to continue to seek to lead the Conservative party and the country with the support of only a quarter of the Conservative Parliamentary party.
I expect that her answer will be yes.
May has had the payroll vote in the MP election for the leadership..
But the payroll vote will be glad to move to whoever is the PM chosen by the membership.
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Could be worse - you could be "chastised" by Andrea LeadsomRobD said:
I've already been chastised by Sunilsurbiton said:
Bangladesh's 4 is actually 2. Shiekh Hasina and Khaleda Zia. They were elected twice each. Not including the last time, when the opposition boycotted the polls.RobD said:
Bangladesh (four now), Finland, Haiti, Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Senegal, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sao Tome and Principe.not_on_fire said:How many other countries have elected their second female leader?
Not unique then!
Bangladesh hasn't had a male PM since 1991 apart from 2 years of a caretaker government.
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Christ on a bike does that mean we have a couple of months of ScottPaste tweets on various claims about Leadsom ? Life might be too short. I wouldn't vote for her personally, but a two month hatchet job is going to make electing her more likely not less - see "hand, overplaying" (reference EU referendum remain campaign)0
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Spare a thought also for the mood in the Harman household this evening
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Afternoon all
Scarcely a ringing endorsement for Theresa May - she got Crabb's supporters as might have been expected but Fox's supporters have gone to Leadsom along with a couple of switchers from Team Gove.
Despite a brutal 48 hours for her, Leadsom has held the line reasonably well. She has been a victim of the kind of full-on character assassination normally reserved for Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders.
The divisions in the Conservative parliamentary party (which the Referendum was meant to end once and for all) are now laid bare. 200 MPs (roughly) form the pro-EU dissident ex-Cameroon factions and 130 or so form the all out LEAVE group - that's a 60-40 split.
If we are to believe the polls, May has strong support among the members at this time but Leadsom has a chance to galvanise the ex-LEAVE supporters and others. In 2001, the membership went for IDS over Clarke but in 2005 for Cameron over Davis so it's very hard to read it.0 -
Crowd sourcing is the modern way.SeanT said:FFS. If they choose Leadsom the country is ruined.
The Conservative membership will decide.0 -
Boris destroys DaveFrankMuller said:hahahaha. Gove's machiavellian plan ended up to be a fucking car crash.
May vs Bojo - now that would've been interesting!
Gove destroys Boris
Dinosaurs eat man
Woman inherits the Earth 0 -
Count me in. Hannanite here too..Indigo said:
I am a Hannanite as well. As I understand it Hannan is a free trade libertarian. I think he would mostly be quite happy with EEA, but he believes (as I do) that the borders of the United Kingdom should be under the control of the elected representatives and institutions of the British people. This is far from meaning that he thinks we should even reduce immigration, i suspect quite the opposite, just that the number of people and the conditions of entry should be decided by our parliament. Its basically the right-wing communitarian view (which I also lean towards) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communitarianism#Responsive_communitarianism_movementJohn_M said:
I am a Hannanite. Sounds biblical. I like it. Not sure if he's a hard Brexiter. If so, he's a heretic! Burn him!rcs1000 said:
I love Dan Hannan. That's exactly the right tone. (Much, much better than Farage.)Indigo said:FPT: Hannan tried to set the right tone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8yadFh0R8E0 -
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done - what's next?Scott_P said:Spare a thought also for the mood in the Harman household this evening
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Has Leadweight reacted yet?0
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Even if your a Brexiteer, surely you can't want someone of Leadsom's low wattage ability as PM? Pure ideology.0
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That sounds like a SeanT holiday.surbiton said:
Sri Lanka. Mother and daughter.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bangladesh.not_on_fire said:How many other countries have elected their second female leader?
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"Out, damned spad."rottenborough said:0 -
That's what the Heathite's used to say about Margaret.SeanT said:FFS. If they choose Leadsom the country is ruined.
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Montie
199 MPs for Mrs May. Impressive. Glad she wants to persuade Tory members too. In 2005 she fought hard Vs Howard's plan to scrap members' say0 -
I don't think the comparison is unfair - I think it's cretinous.0
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I think this is bad news for Theresa.
Look at the votes. 1st round. May 165 , Crabb 34.
2nd round. May 199.
The Remainers are voting for a Remain candidate, by and large. The Brexiters are voting for theirs.
In the party at large, there are more Brexiters !0 -
If May's camp carry on putting the boot in for the next 6-8 weeks all it will do is guarantee 80 or so Tory MPs that won't vote for anything May wants to do when she gets elected PM.TCPoliticalBetting said:James Kirkup
@jameskirkup
130 MPs who voted for Leadsom/Gove is v close to number who voted Leave. If she's PM, T May will have to work v hard to unite party.0 -
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 3m3 minutes ago
Look how happy IDS is after Leadsom gets on ballot - told me Monday "if we can get her to the country, she'll win"
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I believe competence is also a requirement.Indigo said:
If centrism was a guarantee of votes or popularity we would have permanent LD majority governments.midwinter said:
If Leadsom wins I suspect Tim will be leading a much larger troop in 2020. He may well do anyway if the Tory right continue to display their normal lack of self perception to their electability.Indigo said:
If you can get Tim Whatshisname to generate some sort of public profile so people actually give him a hearing.TheKrakenAwakes said:I've said it before and I will continue to do so Andrea Leadsom is toxic. Any half decent opposition worth its name would destroy her - fortunately for her we have no such opposition so she may get away with it...for now.
As a Lib Dem I hope she wins as there's plenty of ammo to use against her...not so much with Theresa May0 -
Why, you signed up to the Andrea Leadsom message that Brexit wouldn't impact on the UK economy.SeanT said:They have to truncate this leadership. Two/three weeks is enough. The economy cannot bear ten fucking weeks of instability.
The entire country is effectively without leadership, at one of the most dangerous times in recent history. Since the war, probably.
Sack up you mewling quim0 -
The chairman of the '22 committee seemed to leave a truncated election open, as he said the result was "currently planned for the 9th of September", implying it could change.SeanT said:They have to truncate this leadership. Two/three weeks is enough. The economy cannot bear ten fucking weeks of instability.
The entire country is effectively without leadership, at one of the most dangerous times in recent history. Since the war, probably.0 -
Can it be that sly, and far from incompetent Boris, is sliding on the outside to a commanding cabinet position?0
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It would be highly amusing if Leadsom won among the membership.DanSmith said:
That's what I mean actually, Leadsom is going to get a month to build up momentum and introduce herself to the members. Is going to be close, and the Tories are staring a Corbyn situation in the face.rottenborough said:
Hmm. For some reason that doesn't give me a comforting feeling. Who knows what mad bandwagon can be got up by early September.DanSmith said:
Wait until the members have had a say.rottenborough said:84 for Leadsom? Give me a break. Are these people mad?
I really didn't think things could get much worse for the UK. But now?
I feel distinctly ill.0 -
I ask again, what the hell are MI5 doing all day?0
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Is that through frogs, locusts, termites, hurricanes, alien spaceships or the baby eaters?SeanT said:FFS. If they choose Leadsom the country is ruined.
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Which is nothing to do with Brexit. It is self-imposed by a peevish, petulant excuse for a Government who've decided to take their ball away because the other side won.SeanT said:They have to truncate this leadership. Two/three weeks is enough. The economy cannot bear ten fucking weeks of instability.
The entire country is effectively without leadership, at one of the most dangerous times in recent history. Since the war, probably.0 -
Preparing for Indy Ref 2.rottenborough said:I ask again, what the hell are MI5 doing all day?
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Fecking hell, 2 months of this shite now, and the bloody Tories still might put Leadsome in Number 10.0
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That would be all well and good if the two candidates were identical apart from their choice of Remain/Leave.surbiton said:I think this is bad news for Theresa.
Look at the votes. 1st round. May 165 , Crabb 34.
2nd round. May 199.
The Remainers are voting for a Remain candidate, by and large. The Brexiters are voting for theirs.
In the party at large, there are more Brexiters !0 -
I wouldn't take that lying down SeanT,TheScreamingEagles said:
Why, you signed up to the Andrea Leadsom message that Brexit wouldn't impact on the UK economy.SeanT said:They have to truncate this leadership. Two/three weeks is enough. The economy cannot bear ten fucking weeks of instability.
The entire country is effectively without leadership, at one of the most dangerous times in recent history. Since the war, probably.
Sack up you mewling quim 0 -
A very perceptive post - and this won't be lost on the tory faithful.surbiton said:I think this is bad news for Theresa.
Look at the votes. 1st round. May 165 , Crabb 34.
2nd round. May 199.
The Remainers are voting for a Remain candidate, by and large. The Brexiters are voting for theirs.
In the party at large, there are more Brexiters !0 -
Starting to think the Tory leadership system is almost as bonkers as Labour's. There needs to be a threshold to get on the ballot. Consider this. If the result were:
May 327
Leadsom 2
Gove 1
Then the outcome would be (technically) the same.
I think Leadsom will win. She'll ride the anti-intellectual, anti-elite, anti-EU bandwagon, and win.
And that will be good for my bank account but a disaster for Britain.0 -
Still, how do "progessive" Labour feel now? Still never had a woman leader, let alone a PM.0
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84 of the MPs who voted for Leadsom used pens rather than pencils.rottenborough said:I ask again, what the hell are MI5 doing all day?
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As an IT contractor I found it difficult in January to find people who knew me at two of the companies I contracted at in the past 3 years. The one I left two years ago is just about understandable but in the case of the one I left six months earlier everyone had cleared out and gone to work for DWP directly....AnneJGP said:
When I changed jobs in "later life", one firm I'd worked for had gone through so many metamorpheses since that even the personnel department had no record of my ever having worked there. Can't be uncommon, especially if a firm goes out of business.matt said:
To be fair, given the turnover of staff at Barclays, I'd be surprised if anyone who was there at the same time as her is still there.Scott_P said:0 -
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Andrea vs Jeremy will transport me back to my childhood when Thatcher faced Foot. Let it be.TwistedFireStopper said:Fecking hell, 2 months of this shite now, and the bloody Tories still might put Leadsome in Number 10.
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The incompetence was shown by the interviewers who failed to pin any accusations on Leadsom. Not even that she spoke directly to God.Scott_P said:@PCollinsTimes: After a round of TV interviews of excruciating incompetence, 84 Tory MPs think Andrea Leadsom should be PM. Extraordinary.
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Well, this is all very entertaining
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On topic:-
As bad as Ms Leadsom's comments about Putin were, they weren't quite as bad as some of Liz Kendall's car-crash interviews in the last leadership contest.
Her answers to the economy questions in this interview really are pitifully banal and vacuous (from 3:14):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogeOqw4dTAA0 -
That really is scathingly funny.Scott_P said:0 -
Indigo said:
If May's camp carry on putting the boot in for the next 6-8 weeks all it will do is guarantee 80 or so Tory MPs that won't vote for anything May wants to do when she gets elected PM.TCPoliticalBetting said:James Kirkup
@jameskirkup
130 MPs who voted for Leadsom/Gove is v close to number who voted Leave. If she's PM, T May will have to work v hard to unite party.
My guess is his holiday partner this summer, George Osborne.Richard_Nabavi said:It will be interesting now to see whom Michael Gove supports. My guess is Theresa May.
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Edit: I just asked a stupid question. No really.
When is the members' vote? (Less stupid question)0 -
Margaret Thatcher was a woman of absolute integrity and honesty.MonikerDiCanio said:
That's what the Heathite's used to say about Margaret.SeanT said:FFS. If they choose Leadsom the country is ruined.
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Those "blue rinse" ladies would have been swinging in the sixties. Do they actually exist? About as rare as a kraken, I would guess.0
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So we now have X weeks of the great and the sneering of Westminster and the media pouring pontificating scorn onto Leadsome thus driving her into the hearts of the Con members.
Nobody has learned anything.0 -
Expect a big push now to get expose Shariah May for her rotten track record and to put her on the spot over her real position on Brexit .At last the chance for a socially conservative government beckons.0
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Just crunched the numbers. Of May's 173 declarations on ConHome, 121 supported Remain, 31 supported Leave, the remaining not declaring their position. So not an insignificant number.surbiton said:I think this is bad news for Theresa.
Look at the votes. 1st round. May 165 , Crabb 34.
2nd round. May 199.
The Remainers are voting for a Remain candidate, by and large. The Brexiters are voting for theirs.
In the party at large, there are more Brexiters !
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How do women get away with wearing that in parliament when men have to wear suits and ties?TwistedFireStopper said:
That really is scathingly funny.Scott_P said:0 -
If Leadsom wins, can we please have a new party which isn't completely bonkers?
This is what happens when political parties have fallen out of favour and only joined by the political obessives and we get nutters on both sides.0 -
Pound Shop Macbeth: Dockside Hooker0
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Only when it's achieved on merit, presumably.AlastairMeeks said:So the Conservatives do believe in all-women shortlists after all.
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Who the fuck wants a socially conservative government apart from bell-ends who support things like Sharia Law?PrinceofTaranto said:Expect a big push now to get expose Shariah May for her rotten track record and to put her on the spot over her real position on Brexit .At last the chance for a socially conservative government beckons.
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Who gives a feck? What politicians wear in the house should be the least of our worries.ManWithThePlan said:
How do women get away with wearing that in parliament when men have to wear suits and ties?TwistedFireStopper said:
That really is scathingly funny.Scott_P said:0 -
Gove not endorsing either May or Leadsom .... yet .... 0
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Leadsom supporters - 41 Leave, 4 Remain, 3 undeclared. May uniting the partyRobD said:
Just crunched the numbers. Of May's 173 declarations on ConHome, 121 supported Remain, 31 supported Leave, the remaining not declaring their position. So not an insignificant number.surbiton said:I think this is bad news for Theresa.
Look at the votes. 1st round. May 165 , Crabb 34.
2nd round. May 199.
The Remainers are voting for a Remain candidate, by and large. The Brexiters are voting for theirs.
In the party at large, there are more Brexiters ! 0 -
84 idiots.0
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No it gives us a chance to find out more about Leadsom. Believe me even as a Brexiteer I won't be voting for her if I deem her not up to it.rottenborough said:Even if your a Brexiteer, surely you can't want someone of Leadsom's low wattage ability as PM? Pure ideology.
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Comparing the leadbangers to momentum is a bit too much though isnt it? With Corbyn he had a long history and they knew they were electing a marxist. Leadsom is just an unknown upon whom (a bit like Brexit) people can project a fantasy of choice.
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AlastairMeeks said:
So the Conservatives do believe in all-women shortlists after all.
May is quite tall.
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Boris Johnson will be wanking himself to sleep with glee tonight.0
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scrapheap may be opening applications. No three quiders thoughSlackbladder said:If Leadsom wins, can we please have a new party which isn't completely bonkers?
This is what happens when political parties have fallen out of favour and only joined by the political obessives and we get nutters on both sides.0 -
Yo, TSE!TheScreamingEagles said:
Why, you signed up to the Andrea Leadsom message that Brexit wouldn't impact on the UK economy.SeanT said:They have to truncate this leadership. Two/three weeks is enough. The economy cannot bear ten fucking weeks of instability.
The entire country is effectively without leadership, at one of the most dangerous times in recent history. Since the war, probably.
Sack up you mewling quim
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
Suck it up, bitch!0 -
Up to a point Lord Cooper.RobD said:
titterTCPoliticalBetting said:Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
Andrew Cooper has called the Tory leadership election for Liam Fox by ten points.
4m0 -
I think it is possible that a relentless campaign against Leadsom would drive her support higher among the membership.TGOHF said:So we now have X weeks of the great and the sneering of Westminster and the media pouring pontificating scorn onto Leadsome thus driving her into the hearts of the Con members.
Nobody has learned anything.0 -
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We managed for years before Blair ,Brown and Cameron and mass immigrationFenster said:
Who the fuck wants a socially conservative government apart from bell-ends who support things like Sharia Law?PrinceofTaranto said:Expect a big push now to get expose Shariah May for her rotten track record and to put her on the spot over her real position on Brexit .At last the chance for a socially conservative government beckons.
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May's going to lose this. She's going up against someone who will be seen as the second coming of Thatcher being actively supported by Boris Johnson.0
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SJW and waycist are – to use @TSE's words – moron detectors...TwistedFireStopper said:
That really is scathingly funny.Scott_P said:0 -
David_Evershed said:AlastairMeeks said:
So the Conservatives do believe in all-women shortlists after all.
May is quite tall.
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That's it, isn't it? A blank slate is a fabulous candidate that everyone can project their hopes onto (Mr Obama...) And Ms Leadsom is defenitely that. We know nothing of her beliefs, except that she used to think leaving the EU was a disaster, and now thinks it's awesome.mr-claypole said:Comparing the leadbangers to momentum is a bit too much though isnt it? With Corbyn he had a long history and they knew they were electing a marxist. Leadsom is just an unknown upon whom (a bit like Brexit) people can project a fantasy of choice.
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Yes and it looks like Mrs May will win but the members I believe from surveys voted 2/3 for LEAVE.RobD said:
Just crunched the numbers. Of May's 173 declarations on ConHome, 121 supported Remain, 31 supported Leave, the remaining not declaring their position. So not an insignificant number.surbiton said:I think this is bad news for Theresa.
Look at the votes. 1st round. May 165 , Crabb 34.
2nd round. May 199.
The Remainers are voting for a Remain candidate, by and large. The Brexiters are voting for theirs.
In the party at large, there are more Brexiters !
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Anything achieved on merit is anathema to Harman. She's strictly for nepotism and prejudice.AnneJGP said:
Only when it's achieved on merit, presumably.AlastairMeeks said:So the Conservatives do believe in all-women shortlists after all.
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how did you come up with a name like that Mr grab cocquegrabcocque said:Boris Johnson will be wanking himself to sleep with glee tonight.
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Mr. F, indeed. A positive campaign from May should win it for her.
And yet, we've seen how unpredictable these things can be.0 -
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Your beloved Brexit not going to plan?MaxPB said:84 idiots.
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@SamCoatesTimes: Farage endorsement underlines narrative emerging amongst May supporting MPs that Leadsom is the Corbyn of the Tories https://t.co/MGJm9ZP5I60
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I'm going all @SouthamObserver here.williamglenn said:May's going to lose this. She's going up against someone who will be seen as the second coming of Thatcher being actively supported by Boris Johnson.
I have backed Leadsome and think she will win. Conservative Party members are on a roll. They are not about to back boring old sensible politicians at this point.0 -
I don't think that the economic news over the next few weeks is going to be entirely to Andrea Leadsom's advantage. See the final afternoon summary here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/07/pound-dollar-brexit-politicians-city-stock-markets-retail-live
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Conservative Party members?Fenster said:
Who the fuck wants a socially conservative government apart from bell-ends who support things like Sharia Law?PrinceofTaranto said:Expect a big push now to get expose Shariah May for her rotten track record and to put her on the spot over her real position on Brexit .At last the chance for a socially conservative government beckons.
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For light relief - Quentin nails Tony
His performance yesterday made for a remarkable but unredeeming spectacle, fascinating if only on a psychological level. Here was a once bellicose peacock stripped of its feathers. He still, even in this moment of political nakedness, managed to find notes of indignation, a persistent tenor tone of self-justification.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3677896/Oh-theatrics-eyes-squinting-distant-destiny-QUENTIN-LETTS-sees-performance-world-class-tragedian-fit-Drury-Lane.html#ixzz4DjfhpyGg
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She'll win.TheScreamingEagles said:Says it all really
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/7510818455346298880
