politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As expected Fox drops out

Not even second, dammit.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/750403036049268736

Nice Genesis reference.

Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.

Can I say something controversial, that nearly cost me friends in the past.

I preferred Phil Collins Genesis to Peter Gabriel Genesis

This explains alot.

I was a massive PG fan when I was a kid, and during a summer job at an Insurance Company, I processed his insurance policy. It was filled in so meticulously. That was the highlight of my summer.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Jonathan said:

Why couldn't they just all vote 12345 and be done with it. This is the most tedious election format ever.

Because that would make it AV, and Tories don't like AV

Some Tories do like AV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011

See point 2 in my recent thread predicting the EURef was more like the AV referendum

The focus of referendum has been portrayed as an opportunity to kick an unpopular politician rather than look at the merits of the argument. Had the AV referendum focused purely on the merits of AV, then I’m sure the undoubted merits of AV would have ensured a triumph for Yes2AV.


http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/17/the-euref-might-be-more-like-the-av-referendum-and-not-the-indyref/

In popular vote share EUref was closer than AVref and indyref

Turnout UK-wide was higher for EUref than AVref. 72% v. 42%

Yes more people voted Remain than voted No to AV

HYUFD said:

Where is this economic armageddon a Leave vote was supposed to bring?

Leaving aside the £1=$1.3 or less thing for a moment, did you see William Hague's article in the Telegraph. Look at the phrases used:

"Such a Cabinet needs two new powerful Secretary of State positions...Existing departments of state could be merged to make way for the new posts required."
TRANSLATION. The task is so large we are going to have to lose departments and strip their staff to fill the new ones

"In the boardrooms ...and at...kitchen tables, decisions...are now on hold, awaiting clarity on our post-EU plans and prospects. That is why a recession in the coming months is widely predicted. "
TRANSLATION. Nobody knows what to do next and the s**t is about to hit the fan.

"There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms... "
TRANSLATION. Your ability to trade will be permanently reduced.

"The EU Working Time Directive could be abolished and replaced with a more flexible alternative."
TRANSLATION. You are going to work harder.

"Everyone...now has to...work out how to compensate for what we are losing with new national advantages."
TRANSLATION. We are going to lose stuff and I don't know how to fix that. Anybody got any ideas?

MonikerDiCanio said:

HYUFD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

taffys said:

When you read through the threads of the popular newspapers, nobody has a good word to say about Theresa May.

The more dismissive they are, the more up voted.

Just sayin'

Choosing May would be a massive error by the Tories. She's Britain's Hillary.

By this time next year May will probably be PM and Hillary US president and Merkel still head of the most powerful nation in the EU, 2017 will be a milestone year of women in power

Leadsom PM, Trump President. Frau Merkel and Mrs Clinton sectioned. By this time next year.

I could see a Thatcher and Reagan relationship between Leadsom and Trump but I don't think it is going to happen

tyson said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/750403036049268736

Nice Genesis reference.

Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.

Can I say something controversial, that nearly cost me friends in the past.

I preferred Phil Collins Genesis to Peter Gabriel Genesis

This explains alot.

I was a massive PG fan when I was a kid, and during a summer job at an Insurance Company, I processed his insurance policy. It was filled in so meticulously. That was the highlight of my summer.

Christ, I hope life got more exciting for you after that.

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

Where is this economic armageddon a Leave vote was supposed to bring?

Leaving aside the £1=$1.3 or less thing for a moment, did you see William Hague's article in the Telegraph. Look at the phrases used:

"Such a Cabinet needs two new powerful Secretary of State positions...Existing departments of state could be merged to make way for the new posts required."
TRANSLATION. The task is so large we are going to have to lose departments and strip their staff to fill the new ones

"In the boardrooms ...and at...kitchen tables, decisions...are now on hold, awaiting clarity on our post-EU plans and prospects. That is why a recession in the coming months is widely predicted. "
TRANSLATION. Nobody knows what to do next and the s**t is about to hit the fan.

"There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms... "
TRANSLATION. Your ability to trade will be permanently reduced.

"The EU Working Time Directive could be abolished and replaced with a more flexible alternative."
TRANSLATION. You are going to work harder.

"Everyone...now has to...work out how to compensate for what we are losing with new national advantages."
TRANSLATION. We are going to lose stuff and I don't know how to fix that. Anybody got any ideas?

That's your translation. How do you even expect people to respond? I suggest you go and tweet it or something.

PS You could save a lot of electrons by just writing THE SKY IS FALLING!!!! in big letters.

Crabb move sideways?

I'll get my coat

Looks like only May and Leadsom have a shot. There aren't many countries that have elected a second female leader. I think we would be the first G20 country. It is interesting that the tories seem much more able to elect women than labour.

In fairness to Crabb, he's probably raised his profile enough to keep his DWP job if May becomes PM.

Cameron was really scraping the barrel when he appointed Crabb and he was clearly intended as a temporary stopgap.

Crabb played the politics game quite well, IMO.

Betfair:

May 1.31 / 1.32
Leadsom 4.9 / 5.7
Gove 19 / 20

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/750406510233214980

May I just say this is brilliant news for Leadsom - there will be many more of course...

Sandpit said:

The roads are only a mile and a half apart, and there's already a couple of minor roads in the area that could be improved. Many people would have benefited from that the other Sunday.

I'd love to see some of our great scientists working on transport problems, it's not impossible to get a Hyperloop or Maglev up and running, and between the two busiest airports in the country would be an ideal place to start.

It seems we're scared as a country of developing new technology, preferring old and tested solutions to pushing the boundaries. Maybe we should ask the F1 teams for advise on how to push technological boundaries, they seem quite good at it from where I'm sitting.

Hopefully Mrs May will have the new runway as her first announcement as PM. We need to show the world we're open for business and that's a good starting point.

Fair go, Mr. Pit,/ On the wider idea of developing new technology, the Uk was once very good at this. However, consider the response of Mr. Jessop upthread - which in this context boils down to "it will never work". Yet Mr. Jessop is one of the few engineers we have on this site.

We can see the same thing in nuclear power. The only option is to spend squillions of pounds with the the French and hand over enormous amounts of dosh to the Chinese every year for the next god knows how many years. All for what one power station? Built to a design which has yet to be completed anywhere. I cannot accept that. There have to be better options.

Sandpit said:

Three left. Will Gove or Leadsom follow and save a second ballot on Thursday?

It has to be Gove if anyone.

SirBenjamin said:

OK, here's the real solution to all aviation problems in the capital:

What we need is a network of underground taxiways, deep below the surface of London, with plane access to runways at Gatwick, Heathrow and City, and passenger access from strategic points, mainly linked to other transport hubs - mainline stations, tube stations, underground car parks etc.

Passengers would be able to check in, go through security and board the plane at their local station, which would be less crowded than more pleasant than a major airport. Once everyone is boarded, the plane then taxis along under London, picking up other passengers from the other stops until everybody is on board and it can come to the surface and take off. Airport 'terminals' as we know them could be consigned to history and the space used for more runway and landing strip capacity

I prefer teleporters as seen in Blakes' 7. Helpfully, they're also more likely.

Pong said:

In fairness to Crabb, he's probably raised his profile enough to keep his DWP job if May becomes PM.

Cameron was really scraping the barrel when he appointed Crabb and he was clearly intended as a temporary stopgap.

Crabb played the politics game quite well, IMO.

Agreed. He'll keep his job if May wins.

kjohnw said:

Anyone know the England only percentages for leave/remain?

53.4% Leave.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Sandpit said:

Three left. Will Gove or Leadsom follow and save a second ballot on Thursday?

No, they both have far bigger egos than Crabb. Crabb's supporters should now ensure May has a large lead going into the membership ballot after Thursday's second ballot, with Leadsom probably knocking out Gove once she picks up the bulk of Fox's support

Pong said:

In fairness to Crabb, he's probably raised his profile enough to keep his DWP job if May becomes PM.

Cameron was really scraping the barrel when he appointed Crabb and he was clearly intended as a temporary stopgap.

Crabb played the politics game quite well, IMO.

Yes - one to watch for the future. And no major hostages to fortune along the way....

Any news on a prospective Labour leadership bid, or are we still at the 'Please, pretty please, resign Jeremy" stage?

How many of Fox's supporters can Leadsom rely on?

JackW said:

If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....

Paristonda said:

Looks like only May and Leadsom have a shot. There aren't many countries that have elected a second female leader. I think we would be the first G20 country. It is interesting that the tories seem much more able to elect women than labour.

The Argentinians had Isabel Peron as well as Cristina Kirchner, but I don't think the former was elected so I think you're probably right there..

Fox backs May!

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

Where is this economic armageddon a Leave vote was supposed to bring?

Leaving aside the £1=$1.3 or less thing for a moment, did you see William Hague's article in the Telegraph. Look at the phrases used:

"Such a Cabinet needs two new powerful Secretary of State positions...Existing departments of state could be merged to make way for the new posts required."
TRANSLATION. The task is so large we are going to have to lose departments and strip their staff to fill the new ones

"In the boardrooms ...and at...kitchen tables, decisions...are now on hold, awaiting clarity on our post-EU plans and prospects. That is why a recession in the coming months is widely predicted. "
TRANSLATION. Nobody knows what to do next and the s**t is about to hit the fan.

"There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms... "
TRANSLATION. Your ability to trade will be permanently reduced.

"The EU Working Time Directive could be abolished and replaced with a more flexible alternative."
TRANSLATION. You are going to work harder.

"Everyone...now has to...work out how to compensate for what we are losing with new national advantages."
TRANSLATION. We are going to lose stuff and I don't know how to fix that. Anybody got any ideas?

The £ has recovered a little and it is nowhere near Armageddon levels. Hague backed Remain but losing the EU Working Time Directive and replacing it with a more flexible alternative or even a mild recession, does not a Great Depression make

Fox backs May

doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????

HYUFD said:

Fox backs May

Has Crabb dropped out?

SquareRoot said:

doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????

HYUFD said:

Fox backs May

The reporting after the hustings was he was angling for Foreign Sec.

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

How many of Fox's supporters can Leadsom rely on?

Probably not many, maximum of 10.

That's a majority isn't it?

OldKingCole said:

Has Crabb dropped out?

Yup and backed May.

Any possibility that May has leant supporters to both Gove and Leadsom. Call them home in the next round and it's all over.

There's another factor here, which makes the Tory rules inappropriate for choosing a PM, as opposed to LOTO. Is it really right that the Home Secretary should be spending a huge amount of her time up and down the country campaigning for a party leadership election?

MaxPB said:

JackW said:

JackW said:

If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....

Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.

There is no risk.

May will trample either Leadsom or Gove with the members - YouGov refers. May should also not be seen to be part of a grubby effort to deny Leadsom the opportunity to fail.

matt said:

SirBenjamin said:

OK, here's the real solution to all aviation problems in the capital:

What we need is a network of underground taxiways, deep below the surface of London, with plane access to runways at Gatwick, Heathrow and City, and passenger access from strategic points, mainly linked to other transport hubs - mainline stations, tube stations, underground car parks etc.

Passengers would be able to check in, go through security and board the plane at their local station, which would be less crowded than more pleasant than a major airport. Once everyone is boarded, the plane then taxis along under London, picking up other passengers from the other stops until everybody is on board and it can come to the surface and take off. Airport 'terminals' as we know them could be consigned to history and the space used for more runway and landing strip capacity

I prefer teleporters as seen in Blakes' 7. Helpfully, they're also more likely.

Surely the likely thing is they'll create a digital representation of your mind, attach that to an email, and then load you into a Sony robot at the other end.

williamglenn said:

Gove suddenly has a lot of power. If he backs Leadsom we could head for a members' ballot without another round of voting in Westminster.

Does anyone know if he strongly prefers Leadsom over May? That's the only scenario in which he would stand down.

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/750403036049268736

Nice Genesis reference.

Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.

Tonight I think it was all about Numbers, leading to a double Exodus.

I can't think how to work in Deutoronomy though.

chestnut said:

kjohnw said:

Anyone know the England only percentages for leave/remain?

53.4-46.6 Leave (incl Gib)
55.4-44.6 Leave (excl London)

Thanks. The tories really can't afford to stitch up the referendum result or try to ignore it on the basis of England having a ten point lead for leave

Sandpit said:

The roads are only a mile and a half apart, and there's already a couple of minor roads in the area that could be improved. Many people would have benefited from that the other Sunday.

I'd love to see some of our great scientists working on transport problems, it's not impossible to get a Hyperloop or Maglev up and running, and between the two busiest airports in the country would be an ideal place to start.

It seems we're scared as a country of developing new technology, preferring old and tested solutions to pushing the boundaries. Maybe we should ask the F1 teams for advise on how to push technological boundaries, they seem quite good at it from where I'm sitting. (Snip)

We're great at inventing new technology in this country. Developing it... less so.

But I'll defend us on this. We abandoned Maglev when it was clear that it was not particularly practical - and we were right, as the Germans also abandoned their system (which was meant to be 100% safe) after a fatal crash. The Chinese have replaced the extension to their one Maglev line with a traditional rail line. Only the Japanese are really pushing the technology (and to be fair, theirs is significantly different to the German/Chinese system).

We also abandoned other things, for instance the tracked hovercraft we spent a fortune developing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracked_Hovercraft

At around the same time as all this, the bods at the RTC at Derby (who were also developing the first Maglev) were dong work on high-speed trains, especially rail-wheel interactions. This allowed faster speeds on existing tracks, without the need for massively-expensive new tracks. Add in tilt (cough)APT(cough) and they were looking at pushing the most out of our existing network. They were hardly 'old and tested'. In fact, I think the APT-E was the first train in the world built using aerospace techniques.

By not developing Maglev further, we saved ourselves an absolute fortune. Germany did not have that wisdom.

It was a political decision in the 1960s: the French chose to build new high-speed lines; we decided to get the most out of our existing network. That was probably right given the respective geographical sizes of our countries. Unfortunately we've probably pushed parts of our network as far as they can go.

For anyone wanting a boring amount of information, below is a link with an interview with an RTC engineer at the time, Dr Alan Wickens:
http://www.nrm.org.uk/railwaystories/railwayvoices/dralanwicken

As an aside, F1 teams are working in other areas. Williams is an example, with their advaned engineering division:
http://www.williamsf1.com/advanced-engineering/case-studies/hanergy

If there isn't a coronation and Leadsome insists on fighting it out, does she need to be given a Cabinet role until September?

anotherDave said:

SquareRoot said:

doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????

HYUFD said:

Fox backs May

The reporting after the hustings was he was angling for Foreign Sec.

Why would she give a serial backstabbing loser, who could only, humiliatingly, scrape 16 votes anything?

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/750403036049268736

Nice Genesis reference.

Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.

Tonight I think it was all about Numbers, leading to a double Exodus.

I can't think how to work in Deutoronomy though.

Doesn't matter, you did a good Job all the same.

HYUFD said:

The £ has recovered a little and it is nowhere near Armageddon levels...

To be honest, I would have difficulty using the phrase "recovered a little" to describe GBP at the moment.

rcs1000 said:

John_M said:

Poor Dave. Just as his new perk arrives...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/05/inside-rafs-new-cam-force-one-vip-jet-for-ministers-and-royals/

No way does a converted A330 cost just 2k/hour to run.

Does that include downtime?

JackW said:

MaxPB said:

JackW said:

JackW said:

If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....

Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.

There is no risk.

May will trample either Leadsom or Gove with the members - YouGov refers. May should also not be seen to be part of a grubby effort to deny Leadsom the opportunity to fail.

It's a secret ballot. She cannot control how her supporters are going to vote. She might not want to be seen to be part of a grubby effort but each MP will be making their own calculation.

Edit: May/Gove has come in from 3/1 to 2/1 but very thin market.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

She's lost the plot again..

She's morphing into Ann Coulter. Listen to the accent she's using now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHWjHKY4VJc

williamglenn said:

Gove suddenly has a lot of power. If he backs Leadsom we could head for a members' ballot without another round of voting in Westminster.

Gove is toxic with the members.

The only way Leadsom wins is if May is caught in bed with Gove and Corbyn and then is found reading a copy of the Morning Star whilst smuggling ISIS members into the country on Sir Philip Green's new yacht ..... and even then she might just edge the contest !!

MaxPB said:

JackW said:

JackW said:

If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....

Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.

This kind of plotting is precisely the kind of thing that plays badly with Tory members. If May is good enough you should entrust them to vote for her in the members' ballot. Let Leadsom face public exposure and justify some of the statements she made on behalf of Vote Leave - if she proves to be inadequate you can be sure members will reject her. We're not the Labour party.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

She's lost the plot again..

https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/750404529087209472

The English Sarah Palin.

JosiasJessop said:

Sandpit said:

The roads are only a mile and a half apart, and there's already a couple of minor roads in the area that could be improved. Many people would have benefited from that the other Sunday.

I'd love to see some of our great scientists working on transport problems, it's not impossible to get a Hyperloop or Maglev up and running, and between the two busiest airports in the country would be an ideal place to start.

It seems we're scared as a country of developing new technology, preferring old and tested solutions to pushing the boundaries. Maybe we should ask the F1 teams for advise on how to push technological boundaries, they seem quite good at it from where I'm sitting. (Snip)

We're great at inventing new technology in this country. Developing it... less so.

But I'll defend us on this. We abandoned Maglev when it was clear that it was not particularly practical - and we were right, as the Germans also abandoned their system (which was meant to be 100% safe) after a fatal crash. The Chinese have replaced the extension to their one Maglev line with a traditional rail line. Only the Japanese are really pushing the technology (and to be fair, theirs is significantly different to the German/Chinese system).

We also abandoned other things, for instance the tracked hovercraft we spent a fortune developing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracked_Hovercraft

The grand-daddy of them all - in every sense of the word - was Brunel's atmospheric railway in the 1850s, which ended rather disastrously when the £25,000 best oxhide leather first froze solid and was then eaten by rats.