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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As expected Fox drops out

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  • Options
    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Not even second, dammit.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JackW said:

    alex. said:

    Serious question raised earlier - if May does win by coronation does she become PM within the week?

    Almost certainly.

    PMQ's and Chilcot tomorrow. Co-ordianate with HM Queen's diary. Friday or early next week.
    There should be NO coronation. look what happened to Labour.. they got Gordon Brown.. the beginning of the end.....
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Nice Genesis reference.

    Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.
    Can I say something controversial, that nearly cost me friends in the past.

    I preferred Phil Collins Genesis to Peter Gabriel Genesis
    This explains alot.
    I was a massive PG fan when I was a kid, and during a summer job at an Insurance Company, I processed his insurance policy. It was filled in so meticulously. That was the highlight of my summer.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,344
    edited July 2016
    Let's say Leadsom gains 6 from Fox - that will give her 72.

    For Gove to make the Final he would then need 73, which would leave May on 184 (assuming 329 total votes - ie one abstention again).

    So May can show good growth whilst still lending enough votes to allow Gove to come second.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Why couldn't they just all vote 12345 and be done with it. This is the most tedious election format ever.

    Because that would make it AV, and Tories don't like AV ;)
    Some Tories do like AV.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011
    See point 2 in my recent thread predicting the EURef was more like the AV referendum

    The focus of referendum has been portrayed as an opportunity to kick an unpopular politician rather than look at the merits of the argument. Had the AV referendum focused purely on the merits of AV, then I’m sure the undoubted merits of AV would have ensured a triumph for Yes2AV.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/17/the-euref-might-be-more-like-the-av-referendum-and-not-the-indyref/
    In popular vote share EUref was closer than AVref and indyref
    Turnout UK-wide was higher for EUref than AVref. 72% v. 42%
    Yes more people voted Remain than voted No to AV
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,274
    rpjs said:

    viewcode said:

    Now an elevated Hyperloop train system between Gatwick and Heathrow I could see,

    'Mazing. Much discussion about the best mode of transport to link two airports. May I 'umbly suggest some sort of aircraft perhaps?

    Mr. Code, you seem to have missed my earlier comment when I referenced the former helicopter link which worked very successfully between Heathrow and Gatwick. It was killed off by eco-loons.
    It wasn't killed by eco-loons. It was killed by NIMBYs in the leafy stockbroker belt between LHR and LGW not liking the noise.
    I'll stick up for nimbyism in this case - albeit as someone who lives in Woking. We used to have a lot of helicopters fly over us and they were very intrusive. For whatever reason we don't have so many now - perhaps it's because we're under the flightpath for Farnborough and that's a lot busier than it used to be.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,354
    HYUFD said:

    Where is this economic armageddon a Leave vote was supposed to bring?

    Leaving aside the £1=$1.3 or less thing for a moment, did you see William Hague's article in the Telegraph. Look at the phrases used:

    "Such a Cabinet needs two new powerful Secretary of State positions...Existing departments of state could be merged to make way for the new posts required."
    TRANSLATION. The task is so large we are going to have to lose departments and strip their staff to fill the new ones

    "In the boardrooms ...and at...kitchen tables, decisions...are now on hold, awaiting clarity on our post-EU plans and prospects. That is why a recession in the coming months is widely predicted. "
    TRANSLATION. Nobody knows what to do next and the s**t is about to hit the fan.

    "There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms... "
    TRANSLATION. Your ability to trade will be permanently reduced.

    "The EU Working Time Directive could be abolished and replaced with a more flexible alternative."
    TRANSLATION. You are going to work harder.

    "Everyone...now has to...work out how to compensate for what we are losing with new national advantages."
    TRANSLATION. We are going to lose stuff and I don't know how to fix that. Anybody got any ideas?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458

    HYUFD said:

    taffys said:

    When you read through the threads of the popular newspapers, nobody has a good word to say about Theresa May.

    The more dismissive they are, the more up voted.

    Just sayin'

    Choosing May would be a massive error by the Tories. She's Britain's Hillary.
    By this time next year May will probably be PM and Hillary US president and Merkel still head of the most powerful nation in the EU, 2017 will be a milestone year of women in power
    Leadsom PM, Trump President. Frau Merkel and Mrs Clinton sectioned. By this time next year.
    I could see a Thatcher and Reagan relationship between Leadsom and Trump but I don't think it is going to happen
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    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    OK, here's the real solution to all aviation problems in the capital:

    What we need is a network of underground taxiways, deep below the surface of London, with plane access to runways at Gatwick, Heathrow and City, and passenger access from strategic points, mainly linked to other transport hubs - mainline stations, tube stations, underground car parks etc.

    Passengers would be able to check in, go through security and board the plane at their local station, which would be less crowded than more pleasant than a major airport. Once everyone is boarded, the plane then taxis along under London, picking up other passengers from the other stops until everybody is on board and it can come to the surface and take off. Airport 'terminals' as we know them could be consigned to history and the space used for more runway and landing strip capacity
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nice Genesis reference.

    Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.
    Can I say something controversial, that nearly cost me friends in the past.

    I preferred Phil Collins Genesis to Peter Gabriel Genesis
    This explains alot.
    I was a massive PG fan when I was a kid, and during a summer job at an Insurance Company, I processed his insurance policy. It was filled in so meticulously. That was the highlight of my summer.
    Christ, I hope life got more exciting for you after that.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    While you're about. Can I ask that you change the header from drops out, to dumped out. It would ensure his humiliation is recorded for ever. (Or as long as the internet remembers) and would cheer me up no end.
    Is Mike's thread and he's currently locked into it.

    But the pic records it accurately, Liam Fox eliminated
    Fair enough, would have been nice though.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where is this economic armageddon a Leave vote was supposed to bring?

    Leaving aside the £1=$1.3 or less thing for a moment, did you see William Hague's article in the Telegraph. Look at the phrases used:

    "Such a Cabinet needs two new powerful Secretary of State positions...Existing departments of state could be merged to make way for the new posts required."
    TRANSLATION. The task is so large we are going to have to lose departments and strip their staff to fill the new ones

    "In the boardrooms ...and at...kitchen tables, decisions...are now on hold, awaiting clarity on our post-EU plans and prospects. That is why a recession in the coming months is widely predicted. "
    TRANSLATION. Nobody knows what to do next and the s**t is about to hit the fan.

    "There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms... "
    TRANSLATION. Your ability to trade will be permanently reduced.

    "The EU Working Time Directive could be abolished and replaced with a more flexible alternative."
    TRANSLATION. You are going to work harder.

    "Everyone...now has to...work out how to compensate for what we are losing with new national advantages."
    TRANSLATION. We are going to lose stuff and I don't know how to fix that. Anybody got any ideas?
    That's your translation. How do you even expect people to respond? I suggest you go and tweet it or something.

    PS You could save a lot of electrons by just writing THE SKY IS FALLING!!!! in big letters.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rpjs said:

    viewcode said:

    Now an elevated Hyperloop train system between Gatwick and Heathrow I could see,

    'Mazing. Much discussion about the best mode of transport to link two airports. May I 'umbly suggest some sort of aircraft perhaps?

    Mr. Code, you seem to have missed my earlier comment when I referenced the former helicopter link which worked very successfully between Heathrow and Gatwick. It was killed off by eco-loons.
    It wasn't killed by eco-loons. It was killed by NIMBYs in the leafy stockbroker belt between LHR and LGW not liking the noise.
    It was not exactly profitable, much like the Scillies helicopter link.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,032
    Crabb move sideways?

    I'll get my coat
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,587
    HaroldO said:

    Crabb is out, and supports May!

    I speculated with a friend he was May's wingman.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Looks like only May and Leadsom have a shot. There aren't many countries that have elected a second female leader. I think we would be the first G20 country. It is interesting that the tories seem much more able to elect women than labour.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    tyson said:

    Moses_ said:

    tyson said:

    So, 199 Tory MP's are remain. Add to that the Labour Party, the LD's, Gibraltar, the Nats, the entire House of Lords and Delia Smith.

    And the leading Tory Brexiters- Leadsom and Johnson didn't believe in it.

    I just don't get how this all went so horribly wrong.

    You forgot the people ...... ( you always do)

    See previous post.
    In the spirit of bonhomie and coming together I was speaking to my Brexit brother today who said he voted Brexit to stop Islamic terrorism. I cannot quite believe we share the same DNA.

    The stupidity of the Brexiters will never cease to amaze.

    Next I will hear someone voted Brexit because they want Man Utd to win the league.
    The stupidity of some family members never ceases to amaze me either.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2016
    In fairness to Crabb, he's probably raised his profile enough to keep his DWP job if May becomes PM.

    Cameron was really scraping the barrel when he appointed Crabb and he was clearly intended as a temporary stopgap.

    Crabb played the politics game quite well, IMO.

  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Crabb move sideways?

    I'll get my coat

    He was part of a pincer movement for May?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Betfair:

    May 1.31 / 1.32
    Leadsom 4.9 / 5.7
    Gove 19 / 20
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,233
    Three left. Will Gove or Leadsom follow and save a second ballot on Thursday?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    May I just say this is brilliant news for Leadsom - there will be many more of course...
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,354

    I preferred Phil Collins Genesis to Peter Gabriel Genesis

    Yup, me too.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sandpit said:


    The roads are only a mile and a half apart, and there's already a couple of minor roads in the area that could be improved. Many people would have benefited from that the other Sunday.

    I'd love to see some of our great scientists working on transport problems, it's not impossible to get a Hyperloop or Maglev up and running, and between the two busiest airports in the country would be an ideal place to start.

    It seems we're scared as a country of developing new technology, preferring old and tested solutions to pushing the boundaries. Maybe we should ask the F1 teams for advise on how to push technological boundaries, they seem quite good at it from where I'm sitting.

    Hopefully Mrs May will have the new runway as her first announcement as PM. We need to show the world we're open for business and that's a good starting point.

    Fair go, Mr. Pit,/ On the wider idea of developing new technology, the Uk was once very good at this. However, consider the response of Mr. Jessop upthread - which in this context boils down to "it will never work". Yet Mr. Jessop is one of the few engineers we have on this site.

    We can see the same thing in nuclear power. The only option is to spend squillions of pounds with the the French and hand over enormous amounts of dosh to the Chinese every year for the next god knows how many years. All for what one power station? Built to a design which has yet to be completed anywhere. I cannot accept that. There have to be better options.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's been suggested to me that British politics is like a Latin American soap. It would be great if we could translate the names accordingly. Guillermo Zorro, Esteban Cangrejo and Teresa Cinco de Mayo have a real ring to them.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    Three left. Will Gove or Leadsom follow and save a second ballot on Thursday?

    It has to be Gove if anyone.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Con Members accepting free movement to get a trade deal: 33% (yougov)
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    OK, here's the real solution to all aviation problems in the capital:

    What we need is a network of underground taxiways, deep below the surface of London, with plane access to runways at Gatwick, Heathrow and City, and passenger access from strategic points, mainly linked to other transport hubs - mainline stations, tube stations, underground car parks etc.

    Passengers would be able to check in, go through security and board the plane at their local station, which would be less crowded than more pleasant than a major airport. Once everyone is boarded, the plane then taxis along under London, picking up other passengers from the other stops until everybody is on board and it can come to the surface and take off. Airport 'terminals' as we know them could be consigned to history and the space used for more runway and landing strip capacity

    I prefer teleporters as seen in Blakes' 7. Helpfully, they're also more likely.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Anyone know the England only percentages for leave/remain?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,642
    Pong said:

    In fairness to Crabb, he's probably raised his profile enough to keep his DWP job if May becomes PM.

    Cameron was really scraping the barrel when he appointed Crabb and he was clearly intended as a temporary stopgap.

    Crabb played the politics game quite well, IMO.

    Agreed. He'll keep his job if May wins.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,587
    Sandpit said:

    Three left. Will Gove or Leadsom follow and save a second ballot on Thursday?

    Well Leadsom won't, that's for certain.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    kjohnw said:

    Anyone know the England only percentages for leave/remain?

    53.4% Leave.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    Sandpit said:

    Three left. Will Gove or Leadsom follow and save a second ballot on Thursday?

    No, they both have far bigger egos than Crabb. Crabb's supporters should now ensure May has a large lead going into the membership ballot after Thursday's second ballot, with Leadsom probably knocking out Gove once she picks up the bulk of Fox's support
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,037
    MikeL said:

    Let's say Leadsom gains 6 from Fox - that will give her 72.

    For Gove to make the Final he would then need 73, which would leave May on 184 (assuming 329 total votes - ie one abstention again).

    So May can show good growth whilst still lending enough votes to allow Gove to come second.

    Yes - it is totally within May's gift who comes second.

    It is in her interests that it is Gove. He doesn't want to be PM, isn't capable of being PM according to him, is a political assassin and is Harry Enfield in disguise. Whereas Leadsom is an unknown quantity.

    She has said she doesn't want to play games. But she already is being accused of games playing. Her advisors know how this is played. There is a lot of scope. Gove must be odds on to come second and then lose to May. Actually, he isn't odds on. He is 3/1 against.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,974
    Pong said:

    In fairness to Crabb, he's probably raised his profile enough to keep his DWP job if May becomes PM.

    Cameron was really scraping the barrel when he appointed Crabb and he was clearly intended as a temporary stopgap.

    Crabb played the politics game quite well, IMO.

    Yes - one to watch for the future. And no major hostages to fortune along the way....
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    Nice Genesis reference.

    Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.
    Can I say something controversial, that nearly cost me friends in the past.

    I preferred Phil Collins Genesis to Peter Gabriel Genesis
    This explains alot.
    How did you ever make such discerning friends? ;)
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Any news on a prospective Labour leadership bid, or are we still at the 'Please, pretty please, resign Jeremy" stage?
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    kjohnw said:

    Anyone know the England only percentages for leave/remain?

    England

    Leave 53.4%
    15,188,406 VOTES

    Remain 46.6%
    13,266,996 VOTES

    Turnout: 73.0%
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How many of Fox's supporters can Leadsom rely on?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    John_M said:

    Any news on a prospective Labour leadership bid, or are we still at the 'Please, pretty please, resign Jeremy" stage?

    Eagle and Smith refusing to budge as to who might challenge Corbyn. ACAS called in.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JackW said:

    If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

    May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

    I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    kjohnw said:

    Anyone know the England only percentages for leave/remain?

    53.4-46.6 Leave (incl Gib)
    55.4-44.6 Leave (excl London)
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,642

    Looks like only May and Leadsom have a shot. There aren't many countries that have elected a second female leader. I think we would be the first G20 country. It is interesting that the tories seem much more able to elect women than labour.

    The Argentinians had Isabel Peron as well as Cristina Kirchner, but I don't think the former was elected so I think you're probably right there..
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    AndyJS said:

    How many of Fox's supporters can Leadsom rely on?

    Probably not many, maximum of 10.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Fox backs May!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sky News - Fox endorses May
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Where is this economic armageddon a Leave vote was supposed to bring?

    Leaving aside the £1=$1.3 or less thing for a moment, did you see William Hague's article in the Telegraph. Look at the phrases used:

    "Such a Cabinet needs two new powerful Secretary of State positions...Existing departments of state could be merged to make way for the new posts required."
    TRANSLATION. The task is so large we are going to have to lose departments and strip their staff to fill the new ones

    "In the boardrooms ...and at...kitchen tables, decisions...are now on hold, awaiting clarity on our post-EU plans and prospects. That is why a recession in the coming months is widely predicted. "
    TRANSLATION. Nobody knows what to do next and the s**t is about to hit the fan.

    "There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms... "
    TRANSLATION. Your ability to trade will be permanently reduced.

    "The EU Working Time Directive could be abolished and replaced with a more flexible alternative."
    TRANSLATION. You are going to work harder.

    "Everyone...now has to...work out how to compensate for what we are losing with new national advantages."
    TRANSLATION. We are going to lose stuff and I don't know how to fix that. Anybody got any ideas?
    The £ has recovered a little and it is nowhere near Armageddon levels. Hague backed Remain but losing the EU Working Time Directive and replacing it with a more flexible alternative or even a mild recession, does not a Great Depression make
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,642
    Fox backs May
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    Fox backs May
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    Pong said:

    In fairness to Crabb, he's probably raised his profile enough to keep his DWP job if May becomes PM.

    Cameron was really scraping the barrel when he appointed Crabb and he was clearly intended as a temporary stopgap.

    Crabb played the politics game quite well, IMO.

    Agreed. He'll keep his job if May wins.
    My only wish is that he could try to accelerate Universal Credit rollout to finish before 2020.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????
    HYUFD said:

    Fox backs May

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

    May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

    I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....
    Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,231
    Has Crabb dropped out?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,354
    John_M said:

    That's your translation. How do you even expect people to respond?

    With grateful thanks.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????

    HYUFD said:

    Fox backs May

    The reporting after the hustings was he was angling for Foreign Sec.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,702
    Boris nearly bought Leadsom off with a job promise. So surely May will now do the same (dump Brexit on her. She deserves it) and we will have a new PM well before September?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    How many of Fox's supporters can Leadsom rely on?

    Probably not many, maximum of 10.
    That's a majority isn't it?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????

    HYUFD said:

    Fox backs May

    The reporting after the hustings was he was angling for Foreign Sec.

    jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,587

    Has Crabb dropped out?

    Yup and backed May.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    As not much is happening, whoever gets the Brexit job will have to deal with this (from the TPP FTA that Robert posted earlier):

    ". A textile or apparel good classified outside of Chapters 61 through 63 of
    the Harmonized System that contains non-originating materials that do not satisfy
    the applicable change in tariff classification requirement specified in Annex 4-A
    (Textiles and Apparel Product-Specific Rules of Origin), shall nonetheless be
    considered to be an originating good if the total weight of all those materials is not
    more than 10 per cent of the total weight of the good and the good meets all the
    other applicable requirements of this Chapter and Chapter 3 (Rules of Origin and
    Origin Procedures)."


    There's 30 chapters full of prose of this nature. They even have two paragraphs on the definition of 'Lycra'.

    They should totally give this to Gove. It's a punishment straight from Greek mythology, like Sisyphus.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2016
    Any possibility that May has leant supporters to both Gove and Leadsom. Call them home in the next round and it's all over.

    There's another factor here, which makes the Tory rules inappropriate for choosing a PM, as opposed to LOTO. Is it really right that the Home Secretary should be spending a huge amount of her time up and down the country campaigning for a party leadership election?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505
    Gove suddenly has a lot of power. If he backs Leadsom we could head for a members' ballot without another round of voting in Westminster.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

    May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

    I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....
    Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.
    There is no risk.

    May will trample either Leadsom or Gove with the members - YouGov refers. May should also not be seen to be part of a grubby effort to deny Leadsom the opportunity to fail.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068
    HYUFD said:



    The £ has recovered a little

    ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    matt said:

    OK, here's the real solution to all aviation problems in the capital:

    What we need is a network of underground taxiways, deep below the surface of London, with plane access to runways at Gatwick, Heathrow and City, and passenger access from strategic points, mainly linked to other transport hubs - mainline stations, tube stations, underground car parks etc.

    Passengers would be able to check in, go through security and board the plane at their local station, which would be less crowded than more pleasant than a major airport. Once everyone is boarded, the plane then taxis along under London, picking up other passengers from the other stops until everybody is on board and it can come to the surface and take off. Airport 'terminals' as we know them could be consigned to history and the space used for more runway and landing strip capacity

    I prefer teleporters as seen in Blakes' 7. Helpfully, they're also more likely.
    Surely the likely thing is they'll create a digital representation of your mind, attach that to an email, and then load you into a Sony robot at the other end.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2016
    Fox and Crabb in the bag.

    Headbangers / joke right do nut...

    https://twitter.com/B_HQ/status/750410759432183812

    Mensch retweets this:

    https://twitter.com/georgeroyce91/status/750406177968812032
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Gove suddenly has a lot of power. If he backs Leadsom we could head for a members' ballot without another round of voting in Westminster.

    Does anyone know if he strongly prefers Leadsom over May? That's the only scenario in which he would stand down.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458

    doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????

    HYUFD said:

    Fox backs May

    I can see May moving Hammond to Chancellor, moving Osborne to Home Secretary and making Fox Foreign Secretary to reassure Brexiteers, we shall see
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,873

    Nice Genesis reference.

    Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.
    Tonight I think it was all about Numbers, leading to a double Exodus.

    I can't think how to work in Deutoronomy though.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I can't see Leadsom or Gove dropping out unless eliminated. Even if they can't win amongst the members they can force May to adopt a more brexity tone by keeping the pressure on. If it's a coronation she has more scope to fudge.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    chestnut said:

    kjohnw said:

    Anyone know the England only percentages for leave/remain?

    53.4-46.6 Leave (incl Gib)
    55.4-44.6 Leave (excl London)
    Thanks. The tories really can't afford to stitch up the referendum result or try to ignore it on the basis of England having a ten point lead for leave
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,409
    John_M said:
    No way does a converted A330 cost just 2k/hour to run.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,474
    Sandpit said:

    The roads are only a mile and a half apart, and there's already a couple of minor roads in the area that could be improved. Many people would have benefited from that the other Sunday.

    I'd love to see some of our great scientists working on transport problems, it's not impossible to get a Hyperloop or Maglev up and running, and between the two busiest airports in the country would be an ideal place to start.

    It seems we're scared as a country of developing new technology, preferring old and tested solutions to pushing the boundaries. Maybe we should ask the F1 teams for advise on how to push technological boundaries, they seem quite good at it from where I'm sitting. (Snip)

    We're great at inventing new technology in this country. Developing it... less so.

    But I'll defend us on this. We abandoned Maglev when it was clear that it was not particularly practical - and we were right, as the Germans also abandoned their system (which was meant to be 100% safe) after a fatal crash. The Chinese have replaced the extension to their one Maglev line with a traditional rail line. Only the Japanese are really pushing the technology (and to be fair, theirs is significantly different to the German/Chinese system).

    We also abandoned other things, for instance the tracked hovercraft we spent a fortune developing.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracked_Hovercraft

    At around the same time as all this, the bods at the RTC at Derby (who were also developing the first Maglev) were dong work on high-speed trains, especially rail-wheel interactions. This allowed faster speeds on existing tracks, without the need for massively-expensive new tracks. Add in tilt (cough)APT(cough) and they were looking at pushing the most out of our existing network. They were hardly 'old and tested'. In fact, I think the APT-E was the first train in the world built using aerospace techniques.

    By not developing Maglev further, we saved ourselves an absolute fortune. Germany did not have that wisdom.

    It was a political decision in the 1960s: the French chose to build new high-speed lines; we decided to get the most out of our existing network. That was probably right given the respective geographical sizes of our countries. Unfortunately we've probably pushed parts of our network as far as they can go.

    For anyone wanting a boring amount of information, below is a link with an interview with an RTC engineer at the time, Dr Alan Wickens:
    http://www.nrm.org.uk/railwaystories/railwayvoices/dralanwicken

    As an aside, F1 teams are working in other areas. Williams is an example, with their advaned engineering division:
    http://www.williamsf1.com/advanced-engineering/case-studies/hanergy
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky — Gove won't pull out.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If there isn't a coronation and Leadsome insists on fighting it out, does she need to be given a Cabinet role until September?
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    doubt he will get a job out of it|?????????

    HYUFD said:

    Fox backs May

    The reporting after the hustings was he was angling for Foreign Sec.

    Why would she give a serial backstabbing loser, who could only, humiliatingly, scrape 16 votes anything?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

    May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

    I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....
    Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.
    There is no risk.

    May will trample either Leadsom or Gove with the members - YouGov refers. May should also not be seen to be part of a grubby effort to deny Leadsom the opportunity to fail.
    Mr W., It was only a few weeks ago that you assured me that remain were going to win comfortably. Forgive me if I take a holiday from your forecasts.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    ydoethur said:

    Nice Genesis reference.

    Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.
    Tonight I think it was all about Numbers, leading to a double Exodus.

    I can't think how to work in Deutoronomy though.
    Doesn't matter, you did a good Job all the same.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,642
    Watching Gove on Sky. Why is he always interviewed in front of that same fireplace?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,354
    HYUFD said:

    The £ has recovered a little and it is nowhere near Armageddon levels...

    To be honest, I would have difficulty using the phrase "recovered a little" to describe GBP at the moment.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:
    No way does a converted A330 cost just 2k/hour to run.
    I think the £2k is the increment.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:
    No way does a converted A330 cost just 2k/hour to run.
    Does that include downtime?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    Gove tells Sky he is not withdrawing from the race
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,037
    edited July 2016
    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

    May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

    I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....
    Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.
    There is no risk.

    May will trample either Leadsom or Gove with the members - YouGov refers. May should also not be seen to be part of a grubby effort to deny Leadsom the opportunity to fail.
    It's a secret ballot. She cannot control how her supporters are going to vote. She might not want to be seen to be part of a grubby effort but each MP will be making their own calculation.

    Edit: May/Gove has come in from 3/1 to 2/1 but very thin market.
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    Stephen Crabb speaking on Sky News:

    "The need for us to recognise that we have deep seated divisions in our society that we need to do much better in tackling and mending"

    Listening to this, one is bound to wonder whether Mr. Crabb wouldn't feel much more comfortable in the Labour Party?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505

    She's lost the plot again..

    She's morphing into Ann Coulter. Listen to the accent she's using now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHWjHKY4VJc
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    AndyJS said:

    Sky — Gove won't pull out.

    Sarah

    Actually, maybe not.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Gove suddenly has a lot of power. If he backs Leadsom we could head for a members' ballot without another round of voting in Westminster.

    Gove is toxic with the members.

    The only way Leadsom wins is if May is caught in bed with Gove and Corbyn and then is found reading a copy of the Morning Star whilst smuggling ISIS members into the country on Sir Philip Green's new yacht ..... and even then she might just edge the contest !!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,873
    Freggles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nice Genesis reference.

    Stephen Crabb, of course, is more of a Leviticus kind of guy.
    Tonight I think it was all about Numbers, leading to a double Exodus.

    I can't think how to work in Deutoronomy though.
    Doesn't matter, you did a good Job all the same.
    I know you are all discerning Judges!
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

    May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

    I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....
    Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.
    This kind of plotting is precisely the kind of thing that plays badly with Tory members. If May is good enough you should entrust them to vote for her in the members' ballot. Let Leadsom face public exposure and justify some of the statements she made on behalf of Vote Leave - if she proves to be inadequate you can be sure members will reject her. We're not the Labour party.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I wonder if Brexiters have considered that having a coronation for May is the best way of achieving what they want. They could potentially be in a race against time before the next election - wouldn't it be best to have the new PM in place and commencing negotiations asap?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,587
    The English Sarah Palin.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    "I asked for nothing, she offered nothing" Cameron on his negotiations with the E.U.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,873

    Sandpit said:

    The roads are only a mile and a half apart, and there's already a couple of minor roads in the area that could be improved. Many people would have benefited from that the other Sunday.

    I'd love to see some of our great scientists working on transport problems, it's not impossible to get a Hyperloop or Maglev up and running, and between the two busiest airports in the country would be an ideal place to start.

    It seems we're scared as a country of developing new technology, preferring old and tested solutions to pushing the boundaries. Maybe we should ask the F1 teams for advise on how to push technological boundaries, they seem quite good at it from where I'm sitting. (Snip)

    We're great at inventing new technology in this country. Developing it... less so.

    But I'll defend us on this. We abandoned Maglev when it was clear that it was not particularly practical - and we were right, as the Germans also abandoned their system (which was meant to be 100% safe) after a fatal crash. The Chinese have replaced the extension to their one Maglev line with a traditional rail line. Only the Japanese are really pushing the technology (and to be fair, theirs is significantly different to the German/Chinese system).

    We also abandoned other things, for instance the tracked hovercraft we spent a fortune developing.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracked_Hovercraft
    The grand-daddy of them all - in every sense of the word - was Brunel's atmospheric railway in the 1850s, which ended rather disastrously when the £25,000 best oxhide leather first froze solid and was then eaten by rats.
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Norm said:

    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    If I were a duplicitous sh*t like Brutus I'd say that Crabb will exit shortly, endorse May and on Thursday any Gove tactical switchers return home with a result around :

    May 210 .. Leadsom 85 .. Gove 35

    I knew my ARSE was twitching for some reason ....
    Why would you want to risk Leadsom on the ballot, better for Gove to get in and be destroyed by the membership. We don't want the Tory Corbyn to become PM.
    This kind of plotting is precisely the kind of thing that plays badly with Tory members. If May is good enough you should entrust them to vote for her in the members' ballot. Let Leadsom face public exposure and justify some of the statements she made on behalf of Vote Leave - if she proves to be inadequate you can be sure members will reject her. We're not the Labour party.
    IDS?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    I'm not sure that it serves Andrea Leadsom's interest to claim that Theresa May really commands the support of 183 MPs.
    Yup, Leadsom's a bit rubbish at this
    Not so sure you're right there. Taking the moral high ground may stand her in good stead.
    since when is moaning on twitter 'taking the moral high ground'
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    alex. said:

    I wonder if Brexiters have considered that having a coronation for May is the best way of achieving what they want. They could potentially be in a race against time before the next election - wouldn't it be best to have the new PM in place and commencing negotiations asap?

    Not bothered who wins. Will vote for May though.
This discussion has been closed.