politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On an explosive day the latest CON leader betting and chart
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he wasnt' far short of calling for Boris being put on trial for treason.. a splendidly articulate but off-the-wall rantPatrick said:What was Hezza's point?
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The strange behaviour of the few die hard europhiles. Is it a treatable condition?Brom said:
Mr Deacon's extensive coverage of Farage no doubt helped Brexit win in a little way, it's pretty funny he is now having a meltdown. Obviously he's more suited to being at the Guardian than the Telegraph but whatever pays his billsPlatoSaid said:
Even sketch writers like Michael Deacon have gone full partisan over Brexit - he told Mrs Gove to eff off in block caps on Twitter. It's completely bizarre.Pulpstar said:Are there any political journalists about without skin in the game these days ? Hodges has a very clear agenda with regards to Corbyn.
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I thought Angela Eagle was nailed on as challenger to Corbyn but apparently that isn't the case now.0
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Been in a meeting all day. As I returned to my office the talk amongst even disinterested colleagues was all about "Boris isn't standing".
What the hell's happened? (sorry, no time to read through hours of posts to unearth the detail!)0 -
Are they not all state educated?JennyFreeman said:So a state educated Tory Prime Minister. Good.
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She sounds like a very smart politician to me. Maybe that's who we want negotiating for us?PlatoSaid said:
Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.PrinceofTaranto said:I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.
The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.
I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.0 -
GE trumps an advisory referendum with such a close result any day.TOPPING said:
EUR64,000 question:Jobabob said:Copying Sean's post FPT
SeanT said:
Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.
Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.
So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.
In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.
GE win by Back into EU Party = 11m voters. Call it 13m..or 15m.
Leave = 17.5m voters.
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I think all five candidates might be state educated.JennyFreeman said:It will be Gove vs May.
So a state educated Tory Prime Minister. Good.0 -
Shivved by Gove.Bob__Sykes said:Been in a meeting all day. As I returned to my office the talk amongst even disinterested colleagues was all about "Boris isn't standing".
What the hell's happened? (sorry, no time to read through hours of posts to unearth the detail!)0 -
The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?0
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Whereas for the Lib Dems, getting those soft remainers in the South East on board is a viable path to a comeback.Tissue_Price said:
Worth noting that LEAVE have a c. 200-seat majority under FPTP. Labour coming out wholeheartedly for the EU would be a further retreat into our biggest cities. Though it would also uselessly get them up to 5k across large chunks of the South East.Jobabob said:
That's what Sean is saying I think – no GE until 2020Wanderer said:
It would seriously change the situation, though, if it looked like the Conservatives would lose any election held. They'd be constrained both by their tiny majority and fears of MPs in marginals.Jobabob said:Copying Sean's post FPT
SeanT said:
Just realised there may not be a GE til 2020 now.
Corbyn is on the verge of quitting. He's having a breakdown. He's 60-something. The ISIS Israel thing, eeek.
So he goes. Labour get a decent leader who campaigns on REMAIN and renegotiate. In that situation LABOUR could get millions and millions of scared REMAIN voters, taking dozens of Tory seats (as Tories would be saying OUT), the last Lib Dem seats, maybe some SNP seats (as people so scared of leaving EU). Yes Labour would lose seats by the dozen to UKIP, but it won't matter if they get 10m REMAIN voters.
In that light, the Tories simply won't call an election, citing FTPA.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-how-did-westminster-constituencies-vote-283c85cd20e1#.ft7nz88e9
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correct!HappyMcFluffy said:
I think all five candidates might be state educated.JennyFreeman said:It will be Gove vs May.
So a state educated Tory Prime Minister. Good.0 -
Well, he's not available and I'm on record of wanting Gove to run. I'm delighted he is now.MaxPB said:
Weren't you ready to vote for Boris just a few hours ago?PlatoSaid said:
Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.PrinceofTaranto said:I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.
The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.
I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.0 -
Burying bad news.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm impressed by the Labour Party. A Labour press office going on strike shows true faithfulness to core principles.
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Southam is possibly the most insightful and clued in left leaning posters here. I always invariably read his output.....although he sometimes likes to pander a little bit too much to the pb Tories...but you can't have everything.Floater said:
You belong back in the Labour party ;-)SouthamObserver said:
I blame the Jews.RodCrosby said:
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Rod has some fairly unpleasant views on certain matters.nunu said:
??SouthamObserver said:
I blame the Jews.RodCrosby said:
SouthamObserver was being ironic - I've no reason to believe that he actually meant what he posted literally.0 -
The kindest thing I can think of is that it's a tactical retreat. She's going to need as much cross-party support as she can.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
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She hasn't changed her mind - she said it was clear there would not be a Parliamentary majority for it.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
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Now if this poll is wrong, then confidence in political polling must surely be shot! Rubio 64% ahead of primary challenger:
http://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/article86827007.html0 -
Oh yes. Stunning isn't it. I wonder in a way if that's one of the subtexts that also did for Boris. Did we really want another Etonian Bullingdon boy? The answers's no.Brom said:
correct!HappyMcFluffy said:
I think all five candidates might be state educated.JennyFreeman said:It will be Gove vs May.
So a state educated Tory Prime Minister. Good.0 -
Not surprised - Hezza is a diehard Europhile. He won't be able to dream of the Euro or a superstate any more. What a gimp. The sort of de-haut-en-bas patrician establishment cnut that created Brexit in the first place.Scrapheap_as_was said:
he wasnt' far short of calling for Boris being put on trial for treason.. a splendidly articulate but off-the-wall rantPatrick said:What was Hezza's point?
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It's obviously catching. Mr Vine changed his mind since last Thursday.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
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Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.Brom said:
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!PlatoSaid said:
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.Scrapheap_as_was said:hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.0 -
What she said was there was no Parliamentary majority for it.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
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And of course, as its Labour, they completely botched the burial. Bad news amplified into its own (new and worse) story.geoffw said:
Burying bad news.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm impressed by the Labour Party. A Labour press office going on strike shows true faithfulness to core principles.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her?0 -
Be a popular measure to put in the next manifesto.John_M said:
The kindest thing I can think of is that it's a tactical retreat. She's going to need as much cross-party support as she can.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
Which may still be in October.0 -
So, no Boris then. Which means it has to be May.
Gove is toxic. The others non-entities.
We have a second woman PM. Another Tory. Another Thatcher?0 -
They think they can still force Corbyn out.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her?0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
he wasnt' far short of calling for Boris being put on trial for treason.. a splendidly articulate but off-the-wall rantPatrick said:What was Hezza's point?
Hahahaha. From the man who knifed Maggie? They're both blond prima donnas.
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@PolhomeEditor: Labour rebel texts: "Tick tock tick tock." Whatever could that mean?0
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Yep.Bob__Sykes said:So, no Boris then. Which means it has to be May.
Gove is toxic. The others non-entities.
We have a second woman PM. Another Tory. Another Thatcher?
She didn't have a sense of humour either.0 -
As I said last night.Bob__Sykes said:So, no Boris then. Which means it has to be May.
Gove is toxic. The others non-entities.
We have a second woman PM. Another Tory. Another Thatcher?
Tory Women PMs = 2
Labour Women PMs = 0*
* until party's extinction0 -
Heseltine did achieve things but he never achieved his ultimate aim. By bowing out early Boris still leaves himself in with a future chance of the top job.JosiasJessop said:
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.Brom said:
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!PlatoSaid said:
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.Scrapheap_as_was said:hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.0 -
The Labour Party is about to explode?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Labour rebel texts: "Tick tock tick tock." Whatever could that mean?
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Quite. It's rather sad when someone who loves himself is no longer loved by anyone else.Patrick said:
Not surprised - Hezza is a diehard Europhile. He won't be able to dream of the Euro or a superstate any more. What a gimp. The sort of de-haut-en-bas patrician establishment cnut that created Brexit in the first place.Scrapheap_as_was said:
he wasnt' far short of calling for Boris being put on trial for treason.. a splendidly articulate but off-the-wall rantPatrick said:What was Hezza's point?
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Either Gove/May or Leadsom/May. Leadsom might actually have a better chance with the membership than Gove.JennyFreeman said:It will be Gove vs May.
So a state educated Tory Prime Minister. Good.0 -
Agree about the other trade deals, but I'd hope to see Article 50 by March 2017. It's already quite clear that a number of Commonwealth countries would happily sit down tomorrow for trade deal talks.chestnut said:Article 50 will be served before March 2018.
The next eighteen months will be spent lining up the replacement deals with the rest of the world and using them as insurance/leverage with the EU.0 -
Gove announces he's standing.Bob__Sykes said:Been in a meeting all day. As I returned to my office the talk amongst even disinterested colleagues was all about "Boris isn't standing".
What the hell's happened? (sorry, no time to read through hours of posts to unearth the detail!)
Boris can't get the numbers/doesn't fancy losing because Gove has split the hard core Brexit vote/knows Gove has some dirt on him*
Boris announces he's not standing
May carries off highly smooth launch and Sourby says the women are coming to clear up the boy's mess (or something along those lines)
Meanwhile, Labour's coup on hold while they deal with fall-out from a press conference about anti-semitism in the party at which Labour anti-semites started shouting at an MP.
* delete as appropriate when we know more from tomorrow's Telegraph/Daily Mail0 -
Has Tim hitched his saddle to another loser?
@montie: Not a good look for Michael Gove https://t.co/VkuPMG48OM0 -
Labour rebels think that texting actually amounts to doing something? If they'd texted a picture of Corbyn's head on a spike, I might be more impressed. As it is, just more ineffectual Lefty wanking.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Labour rebel texts: "Tick tock tick tock." Whatever could that mean?
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I probably forgot something.0
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It's a game of who blinks first. If Labour produce a challenger, Corbyn would be like a pig in shit....he could go get the fuck away from Westminster and go to a series of campaign meetings where he is adored.DanSmith said:
They think they can still force Corbyn out.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her?
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Well of course, but imagine how much process has to be gone through in order to fire a member of staff from the Labour Party.david_herdson said:
Surely that's gross misconduct?Jobabob said:(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 2h2 hours ago
Told Labour press officers saying they will not work future Corbyn events.
Labour press office mutiny.
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@PolhomeEditor: And still it goes on. Rob Marris has just resigned as Shadow Treasury Minister. Anyone keeping count?0
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TBF - as I understand it - the issue isn't the ECHR (which we have existed happily with for 50+ years) but the incorporation of the ECHR into the ECJ's remit and some of the decisions that the ECJ has been making.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
On leaving the EU, the ECJ's view no longer applies - we go back to being able to ignore the ECHR if we see fit (I think)
Hence, why spend the political capital taking down something that will resolve itself in 2 years anyway0 -
Gove has saved Boris from himself. But he's not finished - he can take a job in the new government and develop a track record mof running a department. Theresa May is 59.Brom said:
Heseltine did achieve things but he never achieved his ultimate aim. By bowing out early Boris still leaves himself in with a future chance of the top job.JosiasJessop said:
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.Brom said:
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!PlatoSaid said:
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.Scrapheap_as_was said:hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.0 -
very good RichardRichard_Nabavi said:
The Labour Party is about to explode?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Labour rebel texts: "Tick tock tick tock." Whatever could that mean?
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Alex Wickham @WikiGuido 3 mins3 minutes ago
Is the line still that Jeremy is not going anywhere?
Corbyn source: "Yes. Although he's going to the Somme tomorrow."
Corbyns playing the PLP for fools.0 -
Scott_P said:
Has Tim hitched his saddle to another loser?
@montie: Not a good look for Michael Gove https://t.co/VkuPMG48OM
like this?
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 24h24 hours ago
Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted Tim Montgomerie ن
Just to clarify - my earlier Tweet (https://twitter.com/montie/status/748097431200477186 …) was an endorsement of the man, not of his leadership bid. I'm backing Boris.
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Well my point is that you were ready to vote got Boris despite him being as inconsistent, or more, than May. Gove is pretty inconsistent too. He has said on many, many occasions that he wouldn't run for the leadership and that he would make for a poor leader. Now he is doing and saying the opposite. Not exactly a great start, add the fact that it's probably Osborne pulling the strings and I'm not sure how it makes sense to vote for Boris/Gove while saying that May is inconsistent.PlatoSaid said:
Well, he's not available and I'm on record of wanting Gove to run. I'm delighted he is now.MaxPB said:
Weren't you ready to vote for Boris just a few hours ago?PlatoSaid said:
Rowing back on her pledge re ECHR. Hiding during the campaign. She claimed she'd been out making the cases for Remain. I've not seen a single report re her doing this.PrinceofTaranto said:I just don't understand the sudden enthusiasm for May.Unprincipled on the referendum,terrible record on non-EU immigration,13000
foreign criminals allowed to remain in the UK ,appalling deterioration in security and standards in the Prison service, snoopers charter,knee jerk and inconsistent reactions on banning people from the UK etc .I just cannot believe the Tory rank and file will go for her with all this baggage.
The more I consider her - the more I don't trust her. She's been playing silly buggers for months and months. Her anti-immigration speech was a clear leadership bid way back when, then she jumped to Remain. It's all too much of a game re her career.
I can write-off some triangulation/positioning - but she's far too inconsistent.0 -
Any news on Charlie Falconer?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: And still it goes on. Rob Marris has just resigned as Shadow Treasury Minister. Anyone keeping count?
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@STVNews: Israel's Labor party condemned Corbyn for "unacceptable" comparison with ISIS https://t.co/Nc7wYm5dcV https://t.co/YCGkHt55XM0
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The EU member states would also want to see some sort of roadmap ahead. The uncertainty destabilises them more than the UK.kle4 said:
Remainers hoping for a last minute reprieve will almost certainly be disappointed, but I wouldn't take comments or plans made right now as gospel. Only fools, the deluded and those who just don't care would suggest not brexiting now, not respecting the will of the people. Even the LDs are only saying they want to rejoin, officially.kjohnw said:
shes setting up a Department for Brexit with a Leaver at the helm, be difficult to row back from that I would have thought, her words this morning Brexit is Brexit, clear majority, high turnout, no wriggle roomSeanT said:
But May has promised to respect the vote. Difficult to row back from that.Pulpstar said:I can see May treating Art 50 just like Dave did with Heathrow.
Never making a decision, always delaying.
I guess what she could do is: try to negotiate with Europe on Free Movement, get some emergency brake inside the EU, then return with that, and call an election. Where she would likely win.
Big Ask, tho. However the EU is freaked by our potential departure....
The question would be would there be any rolling back in the next few months, assuming article 50 is not declared soon, which would given an opportunity to Remain after all. Something significant would have to change to make that viable, where it is not now.
I would back at almost any odds that that will not happen, it requires too much contrivance and coincidental occurrences lining up, but everyone now needs to appear on board with leaving even if they were remainers,so they can survive long enough to take advantage should the improbable occur and an opportunity to remain after all emerges.
Can't have the UK dithering for a year whether or not we're leaving.0 -
Very good word play:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7484945133882654720 -
I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.0 -
Yes, we need mummy right now to take us into the promised land of free trade and a more open society, not Gove's vision of pulling up the drawbridge.Bob__Sykes said:So, no Boris then. Which means it has to be May.
Gove is toxic. The others non-entities.
We have a second woman PM. Another Tory. Another Thatcher?0 -
Southam is a great poster. I have the utmost respect for him.tyson said:
Southam is possibly the most insightful and clued in left leaning posters here. I always invariably read his output.....although he sometimes likes to pander a little bit too much to the pb Tories...but you can't have everything.Floater said:
You belong back in the Labour party ;-)SouthamObserver said:
I blame the Jews.RodCrosby said:
My post was just some playful banter about the state of Labour today, I like to think he would understand the joke.0 -
Heh
Linklaters on Brexit: "There is unlikely to be any downturn in work and since uncertainty spawns disputes, there may even be an increase"0 -
I hope he comes out with an old John Major linetyson said:
It's a game of who blinks first. If Labour produce a challenger, Corbyn would be like a pig in shit....he could go get the fuck away from Westminster and go to a series of campaign meetings where he is adored.DanSmith said:
They think they can still force Corbyn out.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her? 0 -
OK, genuine question: who will Cameron and Osborne support? It should be May, surely? I'm possibly overthinking this. 0
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Terrible punSandpit said:Very good word play:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7484945133882654720 -
I think the country is cutting both the red and the blue wires in this instance.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Labour Party is about to explode?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Labour rebel texts: "Tick tock tick tock." Whatever could that mean?
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I'm not complaining - Britain just Brexited. I'm like a pig in the proverbial. BUT as I have always said, a member of the Cameron inner-circle becoming PM is a bad thing for Britain. It's a no change candidate, and in or out of the EU, it means a Britain still in decline, still pursuing an authoritarian internationalist agenda against the wishes of the people, and still joining up to every US invasion that is going. Anyone who attends COBRA (ffs) meetings is a big red flag to me. We need fresh people with fresh ideas.0
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Are there any inexplicable differences between the next PM and next Tory leader markets that we could exploit?0
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Agreed. And when it goes to party members, Leadsom wins.Brom said:I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.0 -
Burnham still in the tent?0
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Palmer used to post that before last election... how did that work out again?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Labour rebel texts: "Tick tock tick tock." Whatever could that mean?
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If that is really his plan, and maybe it is, slightly disappointing that he didn't announce he was withdrawing his name at 11:59 this morningBrom said:I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
Now that would have been sublime betrayal.0 -
That would surely depend whether there was a cross-party process upon its replacement.Tissue_Price said:
She hasn't changed her mind - she said it was clear there would not be a Parliamentary majority for it.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
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Running scared of democracyDanSmith said:
They think they can still force Corbyn out.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Has Eagle bottled it? Or did the PLP bottle backing her?0 -
3 National Polls :
Clinton 48 .. Trump 42 .. PPP
Clinton 42 .. Trump 32 .. Ipsos/Reuters
Clinton 39 .. Trump 43 .. Rasmussen .. 0 -
I like Leadsom. Gove would be fine. With May I'm just not sure she'd deliver.Brom said:I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
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Leadsom now 11/2 to be next PM. What a spectacular rise.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1057563400 -
The question is where will statues to you be built? And for services to what?SeanT said:
lol. I've suffered worse comparisons. I'm a better writer than him tho.JosiasJessop said:
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.Brom said:
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!PlatoSaid said:
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.Scrapheap_as_was said:hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d8itmsB9dCfJwBIgpDFzCSMXAG1TvMR9qEJViOE9UXc/edit#gid=178471611
Lib Dem/UKIP long term target list.0 -
The youGov of Con memebers, did it ask how they voted in the referendum?0
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Cameron might stay out of it. Osborne? Who knows. Maybe someone has offered him the chance to stay on as Chancellor or FO.John_M said:OK, genuine question: who will Cameron and Osborne support? It should be May, surely? I'm possibly overthinking this
.0 -
Yes it was the charter of fundamental rights that was incorporated into Lisbon that causes all of the issues. We are free to ignore Strasbourg's decisions if it is incompatible with UK law, we can't do that for ECJ decision. It is massive judicial overreach by the EU. We have no need to leave the ECHR now.Charles said:
TBF - as I understand it - the issue isn't the ECHR (which we have existed happily with for 50+ years) but the incorporation of the ECHR into the ECJ's remit and some of the decisions that the ECJ has been making.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
On leaving the EU, the ECJ's view no longer applies - we go back to being able to ignore the ECHR if we see fit (I think)
Hence, why spend the political capital taking down something that will resolve itself in 2 years anyway0 -
Bloody lawyers!!TheScreamingEagles said:Heh
Linklaters on Brexit: "There is unlikely to be any downturn in work and since uncertainty spawns disputes, there may even be an increase"0 -
She only has 7 confirmed MPs backing her. Crabb is already at 20.Brom said:I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
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Mensch's pun is not good.0
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National Poll - JNN/Angus Reid
Clinton 25 .. Trump 19 .. Falconer 56
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Not sure you can accuse him of having no heft.JosiasJessop said:
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.Brom said:
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!PlatoSaid said:
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.Scrapheap_as_was said:hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.0 -
Gove. Osborne will support Gove. Dave will vote for but not publicly support May.rottenborough said:
Cameron might stay out of it. Osborne? Who knows. Maybe someone has offered him the chance to stay on as Chancellor or FO.John_M said:OK, genuine question: who will Cameron and Osborne support? It should be May, surely? I'm possibly overthinking this
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Gove at present or Crabb. May ruled out the emergency budget and that makes Osborne look a fool.John_M said:OK, genuine question: who will Cameron and Osborne support? It should be May, surely? I'm possibly overthinking this
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Funny ... but also tragic.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: And still it goes on. Rob Marris has just resigned as Shadow Treasury Minister. Anyone keeping count?
One of the two major parties is destroying itself in plain sight.0 -
Osborne made Osborne look like a fool.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Gove at present or Crabb. May ruled out the emergency budget and that makes Osborne look a fool.John_M said:OK, genuine question: who will Cameron and Osborne support? It should be May, surely? I'm possibly overthinking this
.
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When he wins Wimbledon it'll drive his ratings even higherJackW said:National Poll - JNN/Angus Reid
Clinton 25 .. Trump 19 .. Falconer 560 -
But until we leave the EU we are still under the ECHR and ECJ.MaxPB said:
Yes it was the charter of fundamental rights that was incorporated into Lisbon that causes all of the issues. We are free to ignore Strasbourg's decisions if it is incompatible with UK law, we can't do that for ECJ decision. It is massive judicial overreach by the EU. We have no need to leave the ECHR now.Charles said:
TBF - as I understand it - the issue isn't the ECHR (which we have existed happily with for 50+ years) but the incorporation of the ECHR into the ECJ's remit and some of the decisions that the ECJ has been making.Luckyguy1983 said:The pledge dropping re the ECHR is awful. How can she possibly have changed her mind in this space of time?
On leaving the EU, the ECJ's view no longer applies - we go back to being able to ignore the ECHR if we see fit (I think)
Hence, why spend the political capital taking down something that will resolve itself in 2 years anyway
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There's over 300 Con MPs.TCPoliticalBetting said:
She only has 7 confirmed MPs backing her. Crabb is already at 20.Brom said:I honestly think it will be May vs Leadsom. Andrea has real momentum and with Gove you get the impression he's throwing himself at all the competition to help clear the path for her.
If Leadsom continues in the same vein I can see the membership warming to her over May but she is still relatively untested at this stage.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
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Look who's stalking!TheScreamingEagles said:
Terrible punSandpit said:Very good word play:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7484945133882654720 -
It's an interesting question.John_M said:OK, genuine question: who will Cameron and Osborne support? It should be May, surely? I'm possibly overthinking this
.
I expect they'll see Gove as the continuity Cameron candidate in all areas except brexit.
I also think they rate Gove as smarter than May.
Plus, he did just knife the bastard.
All in all they'll be reasonably content with either, but probably would prefer Gove - the lesser bastard - as the better option to protect their legacy and prevent the tories lurching to the reactionary right.
But who really knows?0 -
Scottish Independence Polling Noodling
Looking at the Sunday Times/Panelbase poll the big thing that jumps out is that although it is tight with a headline figure of 52/48 ABC1s are more likely ot vote Yes than C2DEs which is an inversion of the IndyRef (both demographics are a Yes vote).
I think ABC1's were 60/40 in favour of No last time out.0 -
It has no choice.Floater said:
Funny ... but also tragic.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: And still it goes on. Rob Marris has just resigned as Shadow Treasury Minister. Anyone keeping count?
One of the two major parties is destroying itself in plain sight.
It has to keep doing this until Corbyn resigns. There is no other way.0 -
Who? BoJo?Luckyguy1983 said:
Not sure you can accuse him of having no heft.JosiasJessop said:
Heseltine actually achieved things. There should be statues to him built in Docklands and elsewhere.Brom said:
Heseltine was the Boris of his day, perhaps it's bringing all the bad memories back!PlatoSaid said:
Hezza is just awful - he can't resist getting very rude and personal. I've had more than enough of him already.Scrapheap_as_was said:hezza going postal about boris.... hated hearing every word...
Boris has two outstanding attributes: he can write and speak well, and he can play the fool. There's no heft to him, no substance. He's SeanT with a political career.
You can. very easily. Just look at the way he handled the referendum, yet along the aftermath.
Unless that was meant as a dig at me?0 -
Must have. One point was May did better with Leave supporters than Boris did with Remain supporters.Alistair said:The youGov of Con memebers, did it ask how they voted in the referendum?
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